Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views - On August 12, the soda ash futures closed at 1409 yuan, up 71 yuan or 5.31% from the previous day, with the highest reaching 1429 yuan. The rise was driven by macro - policies and cost factors. However, there are many uncertainties in the future trend. If there is no substantial positive support, the price may fall to the cost line [3]. - The three major A - share indices had a volatile day, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing with a mid - yang line for 7 consecutive days. The suspension of 24% tariffs between China and the US for 90 days is positive for A - shares, and the operation strategy is to go long on dips [6]. - The lower - than - expected July non - farm payrolls data and the downward revision of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range oscillation [10]. - The iron ore market has a strong fundamental support due to high molten iron production and optimistic market sentiment. Technically, it rebounded significantly, and the strategy is to go long on dips [14][15]. - The glass market has a slightly improved supply - demand situation, mainly driven by the improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, with effective support below, the strategy is to go long on dips [18][19]. - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility. After EGA condemned Guinea's revocation of GAC's mining license, the strategy is to go long on dips [22]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Futures - Price: Closed at 1409 yuan on August 12, up 71 yuan or 5.31%, with the highest reaching 1429 yuan [3]. - Driving factors: Macro - policies and cost factors, including relevant policies from the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission and rising coal prices [3]. - Future trend: Uncertainties exist. High inventory and potential cost reduction may lead to price decline [3]. A - share Index - Market performance: The three major A - share indices had a volatile day, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed with a mid - yang line for 7 consecutive days [6]. - News: The suspension of 24% tariffs between China and the US for 90 days is positive for A - shares [6]. - Operation strategy: Go long on dips [6]. Gold - Influencing factors: Lower - than - expected July non - farm payrolls data and downward revision of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold [10]. - Market condition: The weekly adjustment is sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range oscillation [10]. Iron Ore - Fundamental support: High molten iron production due to improved steel mill profitability and optimistic market sentiment from black - limit production news [14][15]. - Technical analysis: A significant rebound, and the strategy is to go long on dips [14]. Glass - Supply - demand situation: Slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak [19]. - Driving factors: The improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation [19]. - Technical analysis: With effective support below, the strategy is to go long on dips [18]. Alumina - Market characteristics: Continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility [22]. - Event: EGA condemned Guinea's revocation of GAC's mining license [22]. - Operation strategy: Go long on dips [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The suspension of mining at Ningde Times' Jianxiawo mining area may shift the industry's supply - demand balance from tight equilibrium to shortage, and lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong, but it's unlikely to reverse the lithium price trend. The market should be treated with a bullish and volatile view [3][4]. - Beijing's real - estate new policies, lithium mine shutdowns, and strong economic data are all positive for A - shares, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [6]. - The weak July non - farm payrolls data and downward revisions of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold. The weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will have a short - term small - range platform shock [10]. - The improvement of steel mill profitability maintains high pig iron production, and the overall fundamentals of iron ore are strongly supported. Technically, it rebounds upwards, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [13][14]. - The supply - demand situation of glass has slightly improved, and the main driver is the improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [17][18]. - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility. After EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, a low - buying strategy is recommended [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - On August 11, the suspension of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo mining area made various market rumors self - defeating. The lithium carbonate futures opened at the daily limit. The market's focus is on Yichun lithium mines. Before the official announcement, the mine had already stopped production and had no short - term resumption plan [3]. - The monthly lithium carbonate supply of the Jianxiawo mining area and its supporting smelter is about 10,000 tons, accounting for about 12.5% of the domestic total. The suspension is related to the implementation of the new Mineral Resources Law in 2025, which has increased concerns about the supply side [4]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - Beijing's real - estate new policies, lithium mine shutdowns, and strong economic data are positive for A - shares, and the short - term trend is to fluctuate upwards [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Weak July non - farm payrolls data and downward revisions of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold. The weekly adjustment is sufficient, and it will have a short - term small - range platform shock [10]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The improvement of steel mill profitability maintains high pig iron production, and the overall fundamentals are strongly supported. Under the anti - involution sentiment, the black - industry chain shows a resonance upward trend. Technically, it rebounds upwards, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [13][14]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The main driver is the improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [17][18]. Technical Analysis - Alumina - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility. After EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, a low - buying strategy is recommended [21].

Report Overview - Report Title: Jinxin Futures Daily - Report Date: August 11, 2025 - Report Author: Jinxin Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Carbonate Lithium**: In the short - term, the price of carbonate lithium may be supported due to the marginal improvement in fundamentals and the potential for further fermentation of mining license and production reduction expectations. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the global lithium resource supply is in an expansion cycle, and it is difficult for the lithium price to reverse the trend, with a view of "possible rebound, not yet a reversal", and it should be treated with a bullish bias in a volatile market [3]. - **A - shares**: 700 billion yuan of reverse repurchases keep the liquidity of the banking system abundant, which continues to be beneficial for A - shares. In the short - term, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards at a high level [6]. - **Gold**: The July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of the data for May and June, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is beneficial for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will have a small - scale platform shock in the short - term [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The profitability of steel mills has improved, and the molten iron output remains at a high level, with strong fundamental support. The black industry chain shows a resonance upward trend. Technically, after a small adjustment today, a low - buying strategy should be maintained [14][15]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, and the factory inventory has declined significantly, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The recent market is mainly driven by the improvement and strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy after stabilization should be adopted [18][19]. - **Alumina**: Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility in futures. After EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, a low - buying strategy on dips should be maintained [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - In recent days, carbonate lithium futures have risen sharply by over 10%, and the volatility has increased, mainly due to the disturbance of the Jixiawo mining license renewal event. As of August 9, the Jixiawo mining license was due to expire, increasing the market's expectation of production reduction. If the production reduction is implemented, it will directly affect the short - term supply - demand balance. There are many market rumors recently, but there is no official conclusion yet. Before the risk events are settled this week, the market will fluctuate greatly [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - 700 billion yuan of reverse repurchases keep the liquidity of the banking system abundant, which is beneficial for A - shares. In the short - term, the market will continue to fluctuate upwards at a high level [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of the data for May and June, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is beneficial for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will have a small - scale platform shock in the short - term [10]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The profitability of steel mills has improved, and the molten iron output remains at a high level, with strong fundamental support. The black industry chain shows a resonance upward trend. Technically, after a small adjustment today, a low - buying strategy should be maintained [14][15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, and the factory inventory has declined significantly, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The recent market is mainly driven by the improvement and strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy after stabilization should be adopted [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Alumina - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility in futures. After EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, a low - buying strategy on dips should be maintained [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The sharp rise in coking coal 2601 today is due to multiple factors, and investors should pay close attention to fundamentals and policy dynamics, treating it with a bias towards more in a volatile market [3][4]. - The year - on - year increase of 3.5% in China's goods trade imports and exports in the first 7 months is positive for A - shares, and in the short - term, the market will mainly fluctuate upwards at a high level [7]. - The July non - farm payroll data indicates that the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US has increased, which is positive for gold, and currently, it is in a short - term small - range platform oscillation [11]. - The iron ore market has strong fundamental support, and a low - buying strategy should be maintained [15][16]. - The supply - demand situation of glass has slightly improved, and the main driver is the improvement of the macro - environment. A low - buying strategy after stabilization is recommended [19][20]. - Alumina has high volatility, and a low - buying strategy on dips should be maintained [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal - Supply: Some coal mines in production areas have reduced output due to accidents, safety inspections, and environmental inspections. The resumption of production in some coal mines in Shanxi Lvliang is slow, and Mongolian coal imports are affected by port closures [4]. - Demand: The steel industry has good profitability, with a comprehensive profitability rate of nearly 60%. High daily hot metal production supports the demand for coking coal, and the replenishment demand of coking enterprises and steel mills further drives up prices [4]. - Policy: The implementation of the new "Mineral Resources Law", the expected anti - involution work plan of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the price increase of coke by industry associations have also driven up coking coal prices [4]. - Outlook: If the over - production verification of coal mines is strictly implemented, the supply is expected to continue to shrink, and if demand remains the same, the price of coking coal 2601 is expected to remain strong. However, if Mongolian coal imports increase significantly or the hot metal production of steel mills peaks and falls, the upward trend will be under pressure [4]. 3.2 A - shares - Market performance: The three major A - share indexes opened higher in the morning, then冲高回落, and the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded in the afternoon and closed with a red doji [8]. - Driving factor: The year - on - year increase of 3.5% in China's goods trade imports and exports in the first 7 months is positive for A - shares [7]. - Operation strategy: In the short - term, it will mainly fluctuate upwards at a high level [7]. 3.3 Gold - Driving factor: The July non - farm payroll data is significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of May and June data, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected, and the probability of a September interest rate cut has increased, which is positive for gold [11]. - Market condition: The weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range platform oscillation [11]. 3.4 Iron Ore - Fundamental support: The improvement of steel mill profitability has maintained a high level of hot metal production, and the overall fundamental support is strong. Under the anti - involution sentiment, the state of the black industrial chain is relatively healthy, showing a resonance upward trend [15][16]. - Operation strategy: Maintain a low - buying strategy [15]. 3.5 Glass - Supply - demand situation: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, and the factory inventory has declined significantly, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak [20]. - Driving factor: The main driver is the improvement and continuous strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery [19]. - Operation strategy: The lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy after stabilization is recommended [19]. 3.6 Alumina - Market characteristic: It has high volatility due to continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm [22]. - Event: EGA condemned the Guinea government for revoking the GAC mining license [22]. - Operation strategy: Maintain a low - buying strategy on dips [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp rise of coking coal 2601 is due to multiple factors, and investors should pay close attention to fundamentals and policy dynamics, treating it with a bullish bias in a volatile market [3][4] - A-share margin trading balance has returned to 2 trillion, and in the short term, it is mainly in a high-level volatile upward trend [7][8] - The weak July non - farm payrolls data and downward revisions of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold, and currently, it is in a short - term sideways consolidation [11] - Iron ore has strong fundamental support and is in a co - upward trend. Maintain a low - buying strategy [15][16] - The supply - demand situation of glass has slightly improved, and when it pulls back to the short - term support level, consider a low - buying strategy after stabilization [19][20] - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility. Maintain a low - buying strategy [22] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: Some coal mines in production areas have reduced output due to accidents, safety inspections, and environmental inspections. The resumption of production in some coal mines in Shanxi Lvliang is slow, and Mongolian coal imports are affected by port closures [4] - Demand: The steel industry has good profitability, with a nearly 60% comprehensive profit rate for steel mills. The daily average pig iron output is at a high level, and the replenishment demand of coking enterprises and steel mills further drives up prices [4] - Policy: The implementation of the new "Mineral Resources Law", the expected anti - involution work plan of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the price increase of coke by industry associations have also driven up coking coal prices [4] - Outlook: If strict production over - inspection is carried out, the supply is expected to continue to shrink. If demand remains the same, the price of coking coal 2601 is expected to remain strong. However, if Mongolian coal imports increase significantly or pig iron output peaks and falls, the upward trend will be under pressure [4] Stock Index Futures - Market performance: A - share three major indexes opened lower and closed higher, with all closing with mid -阳线. The margin trading balance has returned to 2 trillion after ten years [7][8] - Operation suggestion: In the short term, it is mainly in a high - level volatile upward trend [7] Gold - Fundamental factors: The weak July non - farm payrolls data and downward revisions of May and June data indicate that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold [11] - Technical analysis: Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term sideways consolidation [11] Iron Ore - Fundamental support: Steel mills' profitability has improved, pig iron output remains high, and the overall fundamentals are strongly supportive. Under the anti - involution sentiment, the black industrial chain is in a healthy state [15][16] - Technical analysis: There was a slight adjustment today, and maintain a low - buying strategy [15] Glass - Supply - demand situation: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, and factory inventories have significantly declined, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak [20] - Driving factors: The main driving factor is the improvement and continuous strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery [19] - Operation suggestion: When it pulls back to the short - term support level, consider a low - buying strategy after stabilization [19] Alumina - Characteristics: As a "mineral with stories", it has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, and its futures have high long - term volatility [22] - Event: EGA condemned the Guinean government for revoking the GAC mining license [22] - Operation suggestion: Maintain a low - buying strategy [22]

Report Overview - The report is the daily journal of Goldtrust Futures, dated August 6, 2025, and written by the Goldtrust Futures Research Institute [1] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For coking coal, if the strict implementation of over - production verification in coal mines continues, and demand remains stable, the price of coking coal 2601 is expected to stay strong. However, if Mongolian coal imports increase significantly or steel mill hot metal production peaks and declines, the price increase will face pressure. Investors should pay close attention to fundamentals and policy dynamics and treat it with a bullish bias in a volatile market [3] - For A - shares, with 1.96 million new accounts opened, a year - on - year increase of 70.5%, it is a positive factor. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate upwards at a high level [6] - For gold, the July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of May and June data, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected. The probability of a September interest rate cut has increased, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will make a small - scale sideways movement in the short term [10] - For iron ore, with the improvement of steel mill profitability, hot metal production remains high, and the overall fundamental support is strong. Under the anti - involution sentiment, the black industry chain is in a healthy state, showing a resonance upward trend. Technically, after three consecutive days of rising, the strategy is to buy on dips [14][15] - For glass, the supply - demand situation has improved slightly with a significant decline in factory inventory, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The main driver of the recent market is the improvement and continuous strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery. Technically, when it pulls back to the short - term support level, consider buying on stabilization [18][19] - For palm oil, currently in the overseas production area's peak season, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly in June, and Reuters survey shows that the inventory may continue to grow in July. The production and inventory pressure in major foreign producing areas still exist, which may limit the upward momentum of the market as time goes on [20] Summary by Directory Hot Focus - Coking Coal - Supply: Some coal mines in production areas have reduced output due to underground accidents, safety inspections, and environmental inspections. For example, the resumption of production in some coal mines in Lvliang, Shanxi is slow, and Mongolian coal imports are affected by port closures, leading to a tightening of supply [3] - Demand: The steel industry has good profitability, with the comprehensive profitability rate of steel mills close to 60%. The daily average hot metal production is at a high level, which strongly supports the demand for coking coal. The replenishment demand of coking enterprises and steel mills further drives up the price [3] - Policy: The implementation of the new version of the Mineral Resources Law, the expectation of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's anti - involution work plan, and the price increase of coke by industry associations have also driven up the coking coal price [3] Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - New accounts opened in the A - share market reached 1.96 million, a year - on - year increase of 70.5%, which is a positive factor. The short - term operation strategy is a high - level upward fluctuation [6] Technical Analysis - Gold - The July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold. The weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will move sideways in the short term [10] Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Fundamental: With the improvement of steel mill profitability, hot metal production remains high, and the overall fundamental support is strong. Under the anti - involution sentiment, the black industry chain is in a healthy state [14][15] - Technical: After three consecutive days of rising, the strategy is to buy on dips [14] Technical Analysis - Glass - Supply - demand: The supply - demand situation has improved slightly, with a significant decline in factory inventory, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak [18][19] - Market driver: The main driver is the improvement and continuous strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery. Technically, buy on stabilization when it pulls back to the short - term support level [18][19] Technical Analysis - Palm Oil - Supply: Currently in the overseas production area's peak season, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly in June, and it may continue to grow in July. The production and inventory pressure in major foreign producing areas still exist, which may limit the upward momentum of the market [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp rise of coking coal 2601 futures today is due to multiple factors. If the strict implementation of over - production verification in coal mines continues to shrink supply and demand remains stable, the price of coking coal 2601 is expected to remain strong. However, if Mongolian coal imports increase significantly or steel mill hot metal production peaks and declines, the price increase will face pressure. Investors should pay close attention to fundamentals and policy dynamics and treat it with a bias towards more in a volatile market [3][4]. - Starting from August 8th, the taxation of interest income from treasury bonds and other securities is overall positive for A - shares, and in the short - term, it will mainly show high - level fluctuations [7]. - The significantly lower - than - expected July non - farm payrolls data, especially the large downward revision of May and June data, indicates that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will show small - scale fluctuations in the short - term [11]. - In the context of stable demand and falling port inventories, the iron ore futures price rose slightly on Monday. However, the expected increase in supply restricts the upward trend, and the overall market shows a pattern of more - biased supply - demand game [15][16]. - In the short - term, domestic and foreign orders for glass are average, and the operating rate of downstream component enterprises remains low. With the slowdown of stocking, local transactions are weakening. Overall, local supply and demand have slightly improved, and the price shows an upward trend, but the increase should be treated with a bias towards more in a volatile market [19][20]. - The new US renewable fuel policy increases the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak Malaysian palm oil exports may limit the upward momentum of the market [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: Some coal mines in production areas have reduced output due to underground accidents, safety inspections, and environmental inspections. For example, the resumption of production in some coal mines in Lvliang, Shanxi is slow, and Mongolian coal imports are affected by port closures, leading to tightened supply [4]. - Demand: The steel industry has good profitability, with the comprehensive profitability rate of steel mills close to 60%, and the daily average hot metal output is at a high level, which strongly supports the demand for coking coal. The replenishment demand of coking enterprises and steel mills further drives up the price [4]. - Policy: The implementation of the new version of the Mineral Resources Law, the expected anti - involution work plan of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the price increase of coke by industry associations also drive up the price of coking coal [4]. A - shares - Policy impact: Starting from August 8th, the taxation of interest income from treasury bonds and other securities is overall positive for A - shares, and the short - term trend is high - level fluctuations [7]. Gold - Economic data impact: The significantly lower - than - expected July non - farm payrolls data, especially the large downward revision of May and June data, indicates that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it shows small - scale fluctuations in the short - term [11]. Iron Ore - Market situation: In the context of stable demand and falling port inventories, the iron ore futures price rose slightly on Monday. However, the expected increase in supply restricts the upward trend, and the overall market shows a pattern of more - biased supply - demand game [15][16]. Glass - Short - term situation: Domestic and foreign orders are average, and the operating rate of downstream component enterprises remains low. With the slowdown of stocking, local transactions are weakening. Overall, local supply and demand have slightly improved, and the price shows an upward trend, but the increase should be treated with a bias towards more in a volatile market [19][20]. Palm Oil - Positive factors: The new US renewable fuel policy increases the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures [23]. - Negative factors: Weak Malaysian palm oil exports may limit the upward momentum of the market [23].

Report Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The current correction of silver prices is a technical adjustment in the bull market, caused by temporary factors such as the Fed's hawkish stance, short - term strong US economic data, and domestic policies falling short of expectations. The core logic supporting the long - term strength of silver has been further strengthened during the adjustment. The report maintains the view that domestic silver will break through the 10,000 yuan/kg mark within the third quarter, and the Shanghai silver main contract below 9,000 yuan provides a safety margin. Investors should take advantage of the current correction to build long positions [17][18][19] Summary by Related Catalogs Reasons for Silver Price Correction - The Fed's hawkish stance: In the July FOMC meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and Fed Chair Powell's remarks were more hawkish than expected, causing the US dollar index to rise for seven consecutive trading days to 100.09 on August 1st, hitting a new high since the end of May. The stronger US dollar increased the holding cost of silver, pressuring international and domestic silver prices [4] - Short - term strong US economic data: The US GDP annualized growth rate in Q2 reached 3%, significantly exceeding market expectations. The PCE price index in June rose to 2.6% year - on - year, compressing the space for monetary policy shift and pushing up real interest rates, which suppressed the performance of silver [5] - Domestic policy meetings falling short of expectations: The stimulus signals released by the July Politburo economic work meeting did not meet market optimism, leading to a general correction in the domestic commodity market, and silver prices were also pressured. After the meeting, the main contract of Shanghai silver reduced positions and declined, indicating short - term departure of long - position funds [6] Factors Supporting Long - Term Silver Strength - Supply - demand structure tightening: The global silver market is expected to face a supply shortage for the seventh consecutive year in 2025, with a cumulative shortage of 800 million ounces from 2021 - 2025. Mine production has been declining, and industrial demand for silver is growing. Exchange silver inventories have decreased by 18% since the beginning of the year, reaching the lowest level since 2014 [8] - Re - evaluation of financial attributes and hedging value: In the first half of 2025, global silver ETP had a net inflow of 95 million ounces, and retail investment in silver coins and bars in Asia and North America was booming. India's purchases of physical silver and silver ETFs hit record highs. In the context of geopolitical tensions and trade frictions, silver has a unique "dual - wheel drive" pattern [10] - Favorable macro - environment: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is over 70%, and it is almost certain to cut rates before the end of October. Global major economies' fiscal policies are still in a loose cycle, and post - pandemic excess liquidity will gradually flow into silver [11] - Sufficient momentum for the convergence of gold - silver ratio: The current gold - silver ratio is around 86, still significantly higher than the historical average of 50 - 60. If gold prices remain stable, silver needs to rise to $42 per ounce (about 10,500 yuan/kg in China) for the gold - silver ratio to return to a reasonable level, with a potential upside of over 20% [13] Technical Analysis and Investment Strategy - Technical adjustment: The current correction of silver is a healthy adjustment in the bull market. The main contract of Shanghai silver has strong support in the range of 8,800 - 8,900 yuan, and the price stabilized after a decline on August 1st, indicating that the short - term adjustment is almost over [15] - Investment strategy: The main contract of Shanghai silver below 9,000 yuan provides a safety margin. Investors can adopt the "buy on dips and build positions step - by - step" strategy to establish long positions. Silver is expected to resume its upward trend in August, and investors should seize the current buying opportunity [17][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of the alumina futures market may fluctuate sharply due to market sentiment, but in the long - term, the price is likely to decline under pressure due to the strong expectation of supply surplus [3][4] - The short - term trend of A - share indices is mainly high - level oscillation [7] - The long - term direction of gold is still optimistic, currently in a short - term small - range oscillation at the bottom of the platform [11][12] - For iron ore, with the improvement of the macro - environment, it is in a positive feedback repair state, but recent fluctuations are large, so cautious operation is needed [15][16] - The fundamentals of glass have not changed significantly, and its recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment, with cautious operation required [20] - The new US renewable fuel policy may boost the Malaysian crude palm oil futures in the morning, but weak exports may limit the upward momentum [23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina Futures - The sharp rise was driven by policy expectations and market sentiment. On July 19, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentioned a plan to stabilize growth in the non - ferrous industry, leading to a large influx of long - position funds. The price climbed until it hit a resistance at the 3500 yuan/ton mark [3] - The subsequent decline was due to cooling market sentiment and fundamental factors. The sharp drop in the coking coal variety last Friday night led to a callback in leading varieties, and the alumina market has an overall loose supply - demand situation, with an expanding supply surplus trend and a decline in net export data in June [3] A - share Indices - The three major A - share indices opened lower and rose in the morning, then continued to oscillate and decline in the afternoon, and finally closed with a low - level doji. The National Healthcare Security Administration has formulated a "new drug listing initial price mechanism", and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a notice on the 2025 polysilicon industry special energy - saving supervision task list [7] Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing an adjustment in the gold price. However, the long - term outlook remains positive, and the weekly line adjustment is relatively sufficient, with short - term small - range oscillation at the bottom of the platform [11][12] Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and steel mills' profits are acceptable, resulting in high pig iron output. The industry chain is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, it had a narrow - range consolidation today, with large recent fluctuations, so cautious operation is required [15][16] Glass - The supply side has not seen a significant cold - repair situation due to losses. Factory inventories are marginally decreasing, and the downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking motivation. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment. Technically, it oscillated and declined today, and cautious operation is needed [20] Palm Oil - The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving up the Chicago soybean oil price to a contract high, and the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures will help the performance of the Malaysian crude palm oil futures in the morning. However, weak exports in Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ plans to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day this month, and there are expectations for another 548,000 barrels per day increase in September, which may lead to an oversupply and downward pressure on oil prices. The US tariff agreements may improve market risk appetite, but the potential secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil could cause price fluctuations [4]. - PX is in a tight - balance situation with low inventory and high operating rates. With only one potential new device planned at the end of 2025 and high uncertainty, PXN has support due to new PTA device demand [4]. - A 3.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has one line put into production, and multiple devices are under maintenance. The short - term polyester load is strong, but in the long run, there is an oversupply, and prices are expected to fluctuate with the cost [4]. - Rising coal prices support the cost of ethylene glycol. Port inventory is decreasing, and the supply - demand is tight. However, there is an expected increase in imports in August, and short - term prices are expected to be strong [4]. - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry is 85.82%, down 0.60% week - on - week. Downstream demand is weak, and the industry is in an oversupply situation. The demand for textile raw materials is expected to recover in mid - to late August [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - OPEC+ is set to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day this month, and there are expectations for the same increase in September, which may lead to oversupply and downward price pressure. The US tariff agreements may improve market risk appetite, but the claim of secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil could cause price fluctuations [4]. PX - Current PX inventory is low, and the operating rate is high, maintaining a tight - balance situation. In 2025, only one 3 - million - ton device of Yulong Petrochemical is expected to be put into operation at the end of the year, with a capacity growth rate of about 5%. The domestic PX output in the first half of 2025 was 18.3 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%. The annual supply in 2025 is expected to be about 47.8 billion tons, with a growth rate of about 3%. The domestic weekly average PX capacity utilization rate is 82.35%, down 0.56% week - on - week, and the Asian weekly average is 71.98%, down 0.03% week - on - week. The PX - naphtha spread is around $265 per ton. The downstream PTA is still in an expansion cycle, and the supply - demand gap supports PX prices [4][8]. PTA - A 3.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has one line put into production recently, and multiple devices are under concentrated maintenance. The downstream polyester is in the off - season, and the processing fee is 204 yuan per ton, remaining flat compared to last week and at a low point this year. With new device production, the oversupply situation will intensify, and the processing fee may be compressed. The weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate is 79.67%, down 1.09% week - on - week. The spot market price is 4,750 yuan per ton, and the mainstream spot basis is 09, - 13 [4][14]. MEG - The market price of ethylene glycol this week is 4,485 yuan per ton, down 2.05% week - on - week. The total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate is 60.67%, up 1.47% week - on - week, and the coal - based capacity utilization rate is 63.87%, up 3.88% week - on - week. The gross profit has risen to 103.33 yuan per ton, up 15.42 yuan per ton week - on - week. The inventory in East China ports is 427,200 tons, down 47,800 tons week - on - week, at a historical low. Due to the delay of imported goods caused by typhoons, imports are expected to increase. Affected by coal prices, the overall price is expected to be strong [19]. Polyester Industry - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry is 85.82%, down 0.60% week - on - week. Downstream demand is weak, and there is inventory accumulation due to high - level operation. The effectiveness of potential production cuts needs further observation. The demand for long - and short - fiber textile raw materials is expected to recover in mid - to late August [26].