Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - A-share market is driven by "economic recovery + interest rate decline + deposit relocation", and the breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index above 3400 points marks the opening of a new upward space. The A-share "bull market" has shifted from expectation to reality, and investors can focus on the opportunity to go long on stock index futures on dips [2][24]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - As of June 25, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through and closed above the key level of 3450 points, with three consecutive days of stable gains. Other indices such as the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also rose in tandem. The trading volume of the two markets increased significantly, showing a healthy "volume-price increase" technical pattern, opening up upward space for the second-half market [3]. Economic Situation - In 2025, China's economy continued the recovery trend since the fourth quarter of last year. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 5.4%, significantly higher than 4.8% in the fourth quarter of last year [4]. - The new quality productivity-related industries improved notably, laying a solid foundation for further economic recovery. Policy-driven consumption played a key role, with durable goods like cars and home appliances directly benefiting from dual subsidies from the central and local governments. During the "618" promotion period, sales data in new consumption areas such as beauty, small home appliances, and pet economy exceeded expectations, indicating the accumulation of domestic demand resilience [6]. Policy Environment - Fiscal policy: In 2025, the deficit rate is expected to further increase, and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will continue to be issued, with funds mainly invested in hard technology and people's livelihood areas. The focus of fiscal efforts is shifting from traditional infrastructure to promoting domestic demand [7]. - Monetary policy: The central bank has set the tone of "choosing the right time to cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and "maintaining ample liquidity". In 2025, policy interest rates and the deposit reserve ratio are expected to be further lowered [7]. - Real estate policy: Real estate policies have shifted from "protecting projects" to "protecting real estate enterprises", and a storage model is being explored to stabilize housing prices [7]. - Capital market policy: The "New Nine - Article Guidelines" for the capital market promotes investment - side reforms, aiming to improve shareholder returns and encourage mergers and acquisitions, providing institutional guarantees for the entry of medium - and long - term funds [7]. Corporate Earnings - After the profit adjustment in 2024, A - share corporate profits are expected to recover in 2025. In April 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China turned positive year - on - year, reaching 1.5%. Most institutions predict that the profit growth rate of the entire A - share market will show an inflection point of improvement around mid - 2025, with an annual growth rate expected to reach 6.5%. Emerging industries may become the main force for profit growth [8][10]. Global Environment - The Fed is still in an interest rate cut cycle in 2025, which will have a positive impact on the Chinese stock market. Historically, Fed rate cuts tend to reduce the attractiveness of the US dollar, prompting international funds to flow from US dollar assets to emerging markets. The appreciation trend of the RMB exchange rate further enhances the attractiveness of A - shares to foreign capital [13]. Interest Rate Environment - China's monetary policy is in a loose cycle, and the decline in interest rates directly reduces corporate financing costs, which is particularly beneficial to high - leverage industries (such as real estate and infrastructure) and R & D - intensive technology companies. Historical data shows that in the middle and late stages of interest rate decline, the stock market rally often lasts for more than 4 months [14]. Market Liquidity - The current A - share liquidity shows a triple - support pattern: foreign capital is flowing back, with recent net inflows into the Chinese stock market hitting a new high; the investment ratio limit of insurance funds in equities has been increased by 5%, and it is expected that social security, insurance, and annuities will net buy more than 200 billion yuan of A - shares in 2025; leveraged funds are active, indicating a significant increase in on - site risk appetite [17]. Resident Savings - In March 2025, China's household deposits exceeded 160 trillion yuan, with per capita deposits reaching 107,000 yuan, significantly higher than the GDP of 135 trillion yuan. Households hold about 40 trillion yuan in excess savings. With the continuous decline in deposit interest rates, this part of the funds faces a strong need for re - allocation [18]. - The transfer of household savings to the capital market has become an irreversible trend. Recently, the one - year fixed - deposit rate has dropped to around 1.5%, while the dividend yield of the CSI 300 Index has risen to 3.2%, and the average dividend yield of the constituent stocks of the dividend index exceeds 5%. The relative attractiveness of equity assets is prominent [21].

Report Title - The report title is "GOLDTRUST FUTURES Daily" [1][2] Report Date - The report date is June 25, 2025 [1] Core Views - For soybean oil futures, prices have continued to plummet recently. With sufficient soybean supply, increased oil production, reduced demand, and negative macro - factors, investors can take profit on long positions and seize short - selling opportunities at high levels. In the short - term, soybean oil may fluctuate or be strong, but it is in a mid - term seasonal production and inventory increase phase. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8280 - 8300, take profit on long positions and short with a light position [3][4][21] - For crude oil, after Iran and Israel announced a cease - fire, oil prices dropped significantly, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [8] - For A - shares, the three major A - share indices rose sharply in the morning and closed with a mid -阳线, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high in the current rebound [9] - For gold, although there is an adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and reduced expectations of rate cuts this year, the long - term trend is still upward, and investors can buy in batches at low levels [12][13] - For iron ore, supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and ports are accumulating inventory again. There is a risk of over - valuation, and the market should be viewed with a focus on the important support below [15][16] - For glass, the supply side has not seen major losses and cold repairs, factory inventories are high, downstream demand is weak, and it is necessary to wait for the effect of real estate stimulus or major policy announcements. Technically, it rebounded slightly today and should be viewed with a volatile mindset [19][20] Industry Analysis Soybean Oil - **Supply**: In June 2025, the estimated arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills is 162.5 ships, about 10.5625 million tons, and the arrival volume in July and August will also be high. Sufficient soybean supply has led to an increase in oil mill crushing volume and a significant increase in soybean oil output [4] - **Demand**: As the weather gets hotter, the consumption of edible oils enters the off - season, and market demand weakens seasonally. Substitute oils such as palm oil and rapeseed oil also compete for market share, further reducing soybean oil demand [4] - **Macro - factors**: Global economic growth uncertainty has pressured the commodity market. The extension of the US EPA's review of the renewable diesel quota policy and market rumors of lower - than - expected blending targets have led to the withdrawal of speculative funds, causing a sharp decline in CBOT soybean oil futures and negatively affecting the domestic market [4] Crude Oil - **Event Impact**: The cease - fire announcement between Iran and Israel has led to a significant drop in oil prices, but the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [8] A - shares - **Market Performance**: The three major A - share indices rose sharply in the morning and closed with a mid -阳线, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high in the current rebound [9] Gold - **Policy Impact**: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and reduced expectations of rate cuts this year have caused an adjustment in the gold market, but the long - term trend is still upward [13] Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and ports are accumulating inventory again, increasing the risk of over - valuation [16] - **Technical View**: Attention should be paid to the important support below, and the market should be viewed with a volatile mindset [15] Glass - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has not seen major losses and cold repairs, factory inventories are high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak replenishment motivation, resulting in weak demand. It is necessary to wait for the effect of real estate stimulus or major policy announcements [19][20] - **Technical View**: It rebounded slightly today and should be viewed with a volatile mindset [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 23, 2025, the soybean oil price plummeted. Investors are advised to take profits on long positions and seize short - selling opportunities at high levels [3][5]. - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level oscillations. Gold is expected to reach new highs in the long - term, and investors can buy in batches at low levels. Iron ore, glass, and soybean oil are expected to be volatile, and specific trading strategies are provided for each [8][12][15][19][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - Supply: In June 2025, the estimated arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills is 162.5 ships, about 10.5625 million tons, and the arrival volume in July and August will also be high. Sufficient soybean supply increases the oil mill's pressing volume and soybean oil output, intensifying the oversupply situation [4]. - Demand: As the weather gets hotter, the consumption of oils and fats enters the off - season, and the demand weakens seasonally. Substitute products such as palm oil and rapeseed oil may seize market share [4]. - Macro and Policy: Uncertain global economic growth pressures the commodity market. The extension of the US EPA's review of the renewable diesel quota policy and rumors of lower - than - expected blending targets lead to the withdrawal of speculative funds, causing a decline in CBOT soybean oil futures and negatively affecting the domestic market [4]. - Trading Strategy: In the short - term, due to the uncertain US biodiesel policy and the Middle East situation, the oil market may be volatile or strong. But in the medium - term, it is in the season of production and inventory increase. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8280 - 8300, take profits on long positions and short with a light position [22]. Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: At the beginning of this week, the three major A - share indexes opened low and closed high with a mid -阳线, and the CSI 1000 had the best increase [9]. - Operation: The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [8]. Gold - Market Factors: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates reduces the expectation of an interest rate cut this year, causing an adjustment in the gold price. But the long - term trend is still upward [13]. - Operation: Buy in batches at low levels [12]. Iron Ore - Market Situation: Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and port inventories are rising again. The over - valuation risk of iron ore is increasing, and attention should be paid to steel mill profits [16]. - Operation: Pay attention to the important support below and view it with an oscillatory perspective [15]. Glass - Market Situation: There is no significant cold - repair situation due to losses on the supply side, factory inventories are still high, and the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is weak, so demand has not increased significantly [20]. - Operation: Wait for the effect of real - estate stimulus policies or major policy announcements. View it with an oscillatory perspective [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report believes that silver has entered a strong upward channel in price, and it is expected to break through 10,000 yuan/kg in Q3 2025. Despite short - term technical corrections due to factors like the Fed's hawkish stance and high inventory pressure, the rigid supply - demand gap and the momentum for gold - silver ratio repair remain unchanged. Investors are advised to build long positions in batches on dips to await the dual catalysts of macro - impacts and supply - demand gaps in the second half of the year [2][3][25]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Environment - The global monetary easing cycle continues. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, with a more than 50% probability in July and a 52% probability in September. The actual interest rate is on a downward trend, which will significantly reduce the opportunity cost of holding silver. China has released liquidity through MLF and reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the ECB has cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, with further cuts likely. Historically, silver has usually outperformed gold during interest - rate decline periods [3][4][5]. - Geopolitical risks are escalating. In the Middle East, the US military's air - strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and the threat of a larger - scale attack, along with the discussion of closing the Hormuz Strait by Iran, will push up inflation and risk - aversion premiums. The continuation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the intensification of global trade frictions have increased the VIX panic index by 15% compared to 2023, leading to a shift of funds from risky assets to precious metals. Silver has a more prominent risk - aversion elasticity [9][10]. - The global "de - dollarization" process is accelerating. Central banks' silver - buying trend continues, with a 1230 - ton purchase in 2024 (18% year - on - year increase). The US stable - coin bill exposes the internal contradictions of the US monetary system, and emerging markets are diversifying their foreign - exchange reserves by increasing precious - metal holdings, including silver [12]. 2. Supply - Demand Pattern - Supply growth is weak. Global silver production decreased by 2% in 2024. The supply is constrained by factors such as the scarcity of silver mines and recycling bottlenecks. In 2025, the global silver supply gap is expected to reach 117.6 million ounces (about 3659 tons), marking the fifth consecutive year of shortage [3][15]. - Demand is expanding. The recovery of the global semiconductor industry and the acceleration of 5G base - station construction have increased the demand for industrial silver. The demand for silver coins and bars is expected to grow by more than 7% in 2025 [17]. 3. Financial Attribute - The current gold - silver ratio is as high as 94, far exceeding the historical average range of 60 - 80. Historically, after the gold - silver ratio exceeded 80, it was usually repaired through the accelerated rise of silver. If the ratio returns to 80, based on the current COMEX gold price of $3400/ounce, the corresponding silver price would be $42.5/ounce, equivalent to over 10,000 yuan/kg in the domestic market [3][18][20]. - The historical performance of silver shows that in 2011, it once exceeded $35/ounce and then reached $49.5/ounce in less than two months. Recently, it has broken through $35/ounce again, indicating that a bull - market rally can be expected [22].

1. Core View on Urea - On June 20, 2025, the urea price plummeted due to multiple factors [3] - The domestic urea production capacity has been continuously expanding, with an expected new capacity (including replacement) of 6.6 million tons/year in 2025. The total production capacity may exceed 75 million tons/year by the end of the year, with a stable daily output of over 200,000 tons and an operating rate of around 87% [4] - The demand is weak. In agriculture, during the summer top - dressing season, grass - roots procurement is cautious, and the procurement volume is only 70% of previous years. Industrial demand is also poor, with the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises dropping significantly to around 37% [4] - As of June 11, the national urea enterprise inventory reached 1.1771 million tons, an increase of 141,700 tons from the previous week, a growth rate of 13.7%. Urea exports are strictly controlled, and the port - gathering speed is slow, with an export expectation of less than 2 million tons this year, which is difficult to relieve the domestic inventory pressure [5] - The decline in raw material coal prices weakens the cost support, and the production costs of coal - based and gas - based enterprises have decreased simultaneously, giving enterprises more room to cut prices [5] 2. Technical Analysis of Different Futures 2.1 Stock Index Futures - Rumors that Trump will decide whether to attack Iran within two weeks have led to a decline in international oil prices. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate next week [8] 2.2 Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates in the meeting has reduced the expectation of an interest rate cut this year, causing an adjustment in gold prices. However, the general upward trend remains unchanged, and it is only a matter of time to reach a new high. A low - buying strategy is recommended [12][13] 2.3 Iron Ore - The supply has increased month - on - month, the pig iron output has weakened seasonally, and the ports have returned to inventory accumulation. The weak reality has increased the over - valuation risk of iron ore. Technically, pay attention to the important support below and view it with a fluctuating perspective [15][16] 2.4 Glass - The supply side has not experienced a major loss - induced cold repair situation, the factory inventory is still at a high level, the downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking motivation, and the demand has not continued to increase significantly. It still depends on the effect of real - estate stimulus or the introduction of major policies. Technically, it rebounded slightly today, and a fluctuating view is adopted [19][20] 2.5 Soybean Oil - Due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle East situation, the short - term trend of oils and fats may be fluctuating or slightly stronger. However, the current supply - demand situation is not tight, and it is in the period of medium - term seasonal production and inventory increase. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8280 - 8300, take profit on long positions and take short positions with a light position [21]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the daily journal of GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD, dated June 20, 2025 [1] - It analyzes the reasons for the rise of jujube futures and provides technical analysis of various futures including stock index, gold, iron ore, glass, and urea [2][7][11] Group 2: Jujube Futures Analysis Investment Rating - Treat the jujube futures market with an oscillating and slightly bullish view [5] Core View - The rise of jujube futures on June 19, 2025, is due to weather speculation and capital promotion, and future trends depend on weather, growth, and consumption [3][5] Key Points - Fundamental factor: High - temperature weather in southern Xinjiang may cause jujube yield reduction, leading to supply concerns and price rebound, despite ring - cutting measures [4] - Market factor: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's policy adjustment (lowering margin ratio to 9% and adjusting daily price limit to 8% from June 20) attracts more capital and stimulates speculation [4] - Inhibiting factor: Seasonal fresh fruits replace jujubes, and it's the off - season for jujube demand. Current inventory is 10,693 tons, down 0.14% week - on - week but up 69.51% year - on - year [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Other Futures Stock Index Futures - Asian stock markets adjusted due to an attack schedule, and the A - share market closed with a large negative line. The market is expected to continue to oscillate [8][9] Gold Futures - After the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, gold adjusted, but the long - term trend is still bullish. A low - buying strategy is recommended [12][13] Iron Ore Futures - Supply is increasing, iron - water production is seasonally weakening, and ports are restocking. The market faces over - valuation risks. Observe the lower support level and view it with an oscillating perspective [14][15] Glass Futures - Supply has no major cold - repair situation, factory inventory is high, and downstream demand is weak. Wait for real - estate stimulus or major policies. The market is viewed with an oscillating mindset after a small rebound [17][18] Urea Futures - Domestic daily urea production is about 205,600 tons with an 87.23% operating rate. Agricultural demand is slow, and prices are weakly adjusting. Be cautious of a strong long - position rebound when reaching the previous support area [21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The soybean supply is tight due to Argentina's reduced soybean production and Brazil's delayed harvest, and the global soybean inventory - consumption ratio has reached a five - year low. The demand for soybean oil from the food processing and biodiesel industries is increasing, and the rise in international crude oil prices has also had a positive impact on soybean oil futures prices. Therefore, the soybean oil futures market should be treated with a bullish bias [3]. - The overall situation is favorable for A - shares. The market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations, but a short - term directional choice is pending [6]. - Gold is still bullish. Although the Shanghai gold is relatively weak, it will follow the upward trend. Reaching a new high is only a matter of time, and a low - buying strategy is more prudent [10][11]. - For iron ore, the supply has increased month - on - month, iron water production has weakened seasonally, and ports have resumed inventory accumulation. The over - valuation risk has increased. Attention should be paid to steel mill profits and important support levels below, and it should be viewed with a fluctuating perspective [14][15]. - For glass, the supply side has not experienced significant cold repairs due to losses, factory inventories are still high, downstream demand has not seen a continuous increase, and it is necessary to wait for the effect of real - estate stimulus policies. Technically, it has shown narrow - range fluctuations recently and should be viewed with a fluctuating mindset [18][19]. - For urea, the domestic daily production is about 20560 tons with an operating rate of about 87.23%. Agricultural demand progress is slow, and the price is in a weak adjustment. When it reaches the previous support area, short - position holders should take profits and beware of a strong long - side rebound [22]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Soybean Oil Futures - On June 18, 2025, the main contract y2509 of soybean oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose by 72 yuan to 8040 yuan. The reasons for the recent price increase include tight soybean supply (Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production decreased to 49 million tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease, and Brazil's soybean harvest was delayed, with the global soybean inventory - consumption ratio dropping to 28%, a five - year low), increased demand from the food processing and biodiesel industries, and the positive impact of the 4.28% increase in international crude oil prices on June 17 [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The overall situation is favorable for A - shares. The market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations, but a short - term directional choice is pending. Today, the three major A - share indexes rebounded after hitting the bottom, oscillated slightly higher in the afternoon, and closed with small positive lines [6][7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Due to the intensification of geopolitical risks caused by Israel's raid on Iran, the external gold market is approaching a new high. Although Shanghai gold is relatively weak, it still follows the upward trend. Gold is still bullish, reaching a new high is only a matter of time, and a low - buying strategy is more prudent [10][11]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore has increased month - on - month, iron water production has weakened seasonally, and ports have resumed inventory accumulation. The over - valuation risk has increased. Attention should be paid to steel mill profits and important support levels below, and it should be viewed with a fluctuating perspective [14][15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The supply side of glass has not experienced significant cold repairs due to losses, factory inventories are still high, downstream demand has not seen a continuous increase, and it is necessary to wait for the effect of real - estate stimulus policies. Technically, it has shown narrow - range fluctuations recently and should be viewed with a fluctuating mindset [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Urea - The domestic daily production of urea is about 20560 tons with an operating rate of about 87.23%. Agricultural demand progress is slow, and the price is in a weak adjustment. When it reaches the previous support area, short - position holders should take profits and beware of a strong long - side rebound [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The urea futures market has rebounded for three consecutive days, but further rebound faces many constraints. It is advisable to take a short - term bullish and long - term bearish approach [3]. - The A - share market is expected to continue to fluctuate, affected by factors such as the Israel - Iran conflict and the upcoming Lujiazui Financial Forum [7]. - The gold market remains bullish, and it is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy [11]. - The iron ore market should be viewed with a fluctuating perspective, considering supply, demand, and price support [14]. - The glass market should be regarded as fluctuating in the short term, pending the effects of real estate stimulus or major policy changes [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures - On June 17, the main contract of urea futures led the futures market with a nearly 4% increase, driven by changes in international geopolitical situations that altered export expectations [3]. - However, from the supply side, the supply - demand contradiction is not substantially alleviated, with daily production exceeding 200,000 tons and large inventory - removal pressure. In 2025, about 4 million tons of new production capacity will be added, and the oversupply pattern is hard to change [3]. - From the demand side, agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is shrinking. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has dropped to 37.13%, and that of melamine has decreased by 8.3%. As of June 15, enterprise inventory reached 142210 tons, far exceeding the equilibrium threshold of 80000 tons [3]. - Currently, the domestic daily urea production is about 205,600 tons, and the operating rate is about 87.23%. Agricultural demand progress is still slow, and the urea price continues to be weakly adjusted. When it reaches the previous support area, short - sellers should be vigilant against strong long - side rebounds [22]. A - share Market - The Israel - Iran conflict continues, and the upcoming Lujiazui Financial Forum is favorable for A - shares. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. - Today, the three major A - share indexes opened higher and closed lower, with a small - amplitude oscillating decline throughout the day and a rebound at the end of the session, finally closing with a doji star. The news is bearish [8]. Gold Market - Due to the Israel's raid on Iran, geopolitical risks have intensified. The overseas gold market is approaching a new high, and although Shanghai gold is relatively weak, it also follows the upward trend. The gold market remains bullish, and it is only a matter of time before a new high is reached. A low - buying strategy is more prudent [11]. Iron Ore Market - Supply has increased month - on - month, iron - water production has seasonally weakened, and port inventories have returned to the accumulation stage. The weak reality increases the risk of over - valuation of iron ore. Attention should be paid to steel mill profits and industrial repair status. Technically, the price tested the lower support level today, and the market should be viewed with a fluctuating perspective [14]. Glass Market - On the supply side, there is no major cold - repair situation due to losses, factory inventories are still at a high level, the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is not strong, and demand has not continued to increase significantly. Technically, it showed a narrow - range fluctuation today, and it should be regarded as fluctuating in the short term [18].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The methanol futures market is expected to maintain a strong trend, but investors should remain cautious and avoid blind chasing [3]. - The stock index futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate upward [7]. - The gold market is expected to reach new highs, and a low - buying strategy is more prudent [11]. - The iron ore market should be viewed with a focus on oscillations, and attention should be paid to steel mill profits [14]. - The glass market should be viewed as oscillating in the short - term, pending the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17]. - The urea market is in a weak adjustment phase, and short - position holders should be vigilant against strong long - position rebounds [19]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Futures - On June 16, the main contract of methanol futures rose by over 4%. The increase was driven by both supply - side tightening and demand - side recovery [3]. - On the supply side, domestic coal - based methanol plants reduced production due to environmental inspections, with the operating rate dropping to 70% and production decreasing by 3% compared to last week. Imports also decreased due to tight supply in the Middle East [3]. - On the demand side, the operating rate of MTO units rose to 78%, the demand in the olefin industry recovered, and formaldehyde enterprises increased their inventory, driving up the demand for methanol [3]. - In terms of cost structure, coal prices rose by 5%, and natural gas prices increased slightly, providing strong cost support [3]. - Due to the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, 4 methanol plants in Iran with a total capacity of 6.6 million tons shut down, and the rest operated at low loads. Iranian methanol accounts for about half of China's imports [3]. Stock Index Futures - In May, the stable and positive trend remained unchanged, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upward [7]. Gold - Due to the Israeli raid on Iran, geopolitical risks have intensified. The overseas gold market is approaching a new high, and although Shanghai gold is relatively weak, it is also following the upward trend. Gold is still expected to reach new highs [12]. Iron Ore - Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has seasonally weakened, and port inventories have returned to accumulation. The weak reality has increased the over - valuation risk of iron ore, and attention should be paid to steel mill profits [15]. - Technically, the support level was tested again today and proved effective, so the market should be viewed as oscillating [14]. Glass - On the supply side, there has been no significant cold - repair situation due to losses, and factory inventories remain high. Downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking motivation, and demand has not continued to increase significantly [18]. - Technically, the market showed narrow - range fluctuations today, and a short - term oscillating view is adopted, pending the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17]. Urea - On the supply side, the daily domestic urea production is around 205,600 tons, and the operating rate is about 87.23% [19]. - On the demand side, agricultural demand progress is still slow, and downstream players' participation is limited. Urea prices continue to adjust weakly. When reaching the previous support area, short - position holders have made profits, and they should be vigilant against strong long - position rebounds [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil futures prices rose significantly on June 12 and 13, 2025, with the WTI July crude oil futures up 4.88% on the 12th, closing at $68.15 per barrel, and domestic crude oil futures hitting the daily limit on the 13th. Geopolitical tensions, supply - demand imbalances, and positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations contributed to the price increase. The subsequent rise in crude oil prices may push up inflation and increase downstream enterprise costs [3]. - For stock index futures, next week's market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [6]. - Gold is still bullish, and it's only a matter of time to reach a new high. A low - buying strategy is more prudent [10][11]. - Iron ore is a strong variety in the black series, but it has been rising weakly recently and should be viewed as a volatile market [14][15]. - Glass should be viewed with a short - term volatile mindset, waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17][18]. - Urea prices are in a weak adjustment. When reaching the previous support area, short - position holders should be wary of a strong rebound from the long side [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Futures - On June 12 and 13, 2025, crude oil futures prices rose significantly. Geopolitical tensions, such as the uncertainty of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation and threats of conflict, led to concerns about supply disruptions. From the supply - demand perspective, the peak travel season in the US and the peak power - consumption season in the Middle East increased demand, while the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.6 million barrels last week. Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations also boosted prices. The price increase may push up inflation and increase downstream costs [3]. Stock Index Futures - After Israel attacked Iran, the three major A - share indexes opened lower and closed with a mid -阴线, with a slight rebound at the end. Next week, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [6][7]. Gold - Due to Israel's surprise attack on Iran, geopolitical risks increased. The overseas gold market is approaching a new high, and Shanghai gold, although relatively weak, is also rising. Gold is still bullish, and reaching a new high is just a matter of time. A low - buying strategy is more prudent [10][11]. Iron Ore - At the end of the quarter, mines are still ramping up shipments, and iron - water production is seasonally weak, increasing the over - valuation risk of iron ore. However, the continuous decline in port inventory supports the market. It is a strong variety in the black series, but has been rising weakly recently and should be viewed as a volatile market [14][15]. Glass - There has been no significant cold - repair situation due to losses on the supply side, factory inventories are still high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking motivation. The market should be viewed with a short - term volatile mindset, waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17][18]. Urea - The domestic daily urea production is about 205,600 tons, with an operating rate of about 87.23%. Agricultural demand progress is slow, and downstream players are less involved. Urea prices are in a weak adjustment. When reaching the previous support area, short - position holders should be wary of a strong rebound from the long side [21].