Group 1: Report Core View - The current low inventory of old cotton supports cotton prices, but downstream demand has not recovered, so short - term cotton price drivers are insufficient and may remain volatile. As the seasonal consumption peak approaches, downstream sales are expected to improve, and the cotton price center may rise with the recovery of demand. Attention should be paid to downstream inventory preparation and the adjustment of this week's USDA supply - demand forecast report [4] Group 2: Bullish Factors - This year, due to the increase in spinning capacity in Xinjiang and a significant reduction in imported cotton, the rigid consumption of downstream cotton has increased, the inventory of Xinjiang cotton has decreased rapidly, and the overall inventory level is low. As of the end of July, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 3.0882 million tons, a decrease of 0.6446 million tons from the end of June, which supports cotton prices [5] - As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, downstream inventory - preparation willingness is expected to improve marginally [5] Group 3: Bearish Factors - Recently, the spinning profit of inland yarn mills has been poor, the overall load has further declined, the load of cloth mills has increased slightly, the number of sampling orders has increased slightly, but overall sales are still sluggish, and finished products have accumulated slightly [6] - The growth progress of new cotton in Xinjiang is fast, the flower positions are generally concentrated on the 9th, 10th, and 11th fruiting branches, and the overall growth is good. An optimistic outlook for the new - year's output is maintained [6] Group 4: Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0713 [3] - For inventory management with high inventory, to prevent inventory losses, short Zhengzhou cotton futures can be sold at 14,200 - 14,400 with a hedging ratio of 50%. Selling call options (CF601C14400) at 250 - 300 with a hedging ratio of 75% can also reduce costs and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising cotton prices, Zhengzhou cotton futures can be bought at 13,600 - 13,800 with a hedging ratio of 50%. Selling put options (CF601P13600) at 200 - 250 with a hedging ratio of 75% can reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot cotton purchase price if the cotton price falls [3] Group 5: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,980, up 100 or 0.72% [7] - Cotton 05 closed at 13,910, up 80 or 0.58% [7] - Cotton 09 closed at 13,735, up 55 or 0.4% [8] - Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,980, up 180 or 0.91% [8] - Cotton yarn 05 closed at 20,070, down 100% (data may have an issue here) [8] - Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,995, up 95 or 0.48% [8] Group 6: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Spreads - The cotton basis was 1,197, down 284 [9] - The spread between Cotton 01 and 05 was 70, up 20 [9] - The spread between Cotton 05 and 09 was 175, up 25 [9] - The spread between Cotton 09 and 01 was - 245, down 45 [9] - The spread between cotton and cotton yarn was 5,985, down 30 [9] - The spread between domestic and foreign cotton was 1,776, down 52 [9] - The spread between domestic and foreign cotton yarn was - 567, unchanged [9] Group 7: Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was priced at 15,177, up 16 or 0.11% [10] - CCI 2227B was priced at 13,303, up 15 or 0.11% [10] - CCI 2129B was priced at 15,451, up 17 or 0.11% [10] - FCI Index S was priced at 13,617, up 17 or 0.13% [10] - FCI Index M was priced at 13,402, up 17 or 0.13% [10] - FCI Index L was priced at 13,102, unchanged [10]

国债期货日报 2025年8月12日 债市仍受压制 观点：逢低布局下季合约 南华研究院 徐晨曦（Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 期债日内探底回升，全线收跌，TF相对较强，TL最弱。现券收益率今日继续上行，短端幅度较小，超长端上 行幅度较大，但整体幅度较昨日缓和。公开市场净回笼461亿元。资金利率略微上行，DR001在1.32%左右。 日内消息： 1.中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明：自2025年8月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天。 行情研判： 债市目前仍受股债跷跷板效应影响。盘前中美关税如期暂缓90天的消息一定程度上对股市继续上涨提供了情 绪助力，今日上证指数继续向去年10月8日形成的高点发起冲击。机构行为方面，基金与券商在卖出债券。当 下股市牛市氛围浓厚，即便出现一定震荡，大盘还将继续向上，对债市的压制将在一段时间内持续，但债市 在基本面与政策面主导下，调整存在边界。交易盘可逢低布局下季合约，可将买入间隔适当拉大。 | 数据一览 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1: Market Performance Summary - Today, the Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.82% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1] - Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell by -0.36%, while the rest rose. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest increase of 1.31%, and the Nanhua Metal Index had the smallest increase of 0.69% [1] - All theme indices rose. The Black Raw Materials Index had the largest increase of 1.79%, and the Coal - Chemical Index had the smallest increase of 0.47% [1] - In the commodity futures single - variety indices, the Soda Ash index had the largest increase of 4.76%, and the Industrial Silicon index had the largest decrease of -1.78% [1] Group 2: Index Data - Index data includes various indices such as the Energy Index NHEI, Petroleum and Chemical Index NHPCl, Coal - Chemical Index NHCCl, etc., with their respective closing prices, previous closing prices, and annualized yields [2] Group 3: Single - Variety Index Yields and Fluctuations - There is data on the yields and fluctuations of major single - variety indices, though specific details are not fully clear from the text [2] Group 4: Industry Chain and Variety Performance - In the energy and chemical sector, specific varieties' single - variety index daily price changes are given, like the yields of some products in the energy and chemical industry chain [2] - In the black sector, there is a schematic diagram of the industrial chain of some varieties and their single - variety index daily price changes [7] - In the agricultural products sector, the single - variety index daily price changes of some varieties such as palm oil, rapeseed oil, etc. are presented. For example, palm oil rose 1.71%, rapeseed oil rose 2.26%, and rapeseed fell -0.70% [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, the futures prices of each contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) opened significantly lower and then fluctuated upwards. By the close, all contracts except EC2508 slightly declined. The suspension of the 24% mutual tariffs between China and the US for 90 days has a relatively neutral impact on futures prices from a macro - sentiment perspective. MSC's reduction of the spot cabin quotation for the European Line has lowered the futures price estimate. The EC2508 contract has some support at the bottom based on the basis convergence logic, showing a slight oscillation. In the future, it is more likely that the EC will oscillate downward or continue to oscillate. In the medium - term, without sudden events, the overall futures price may still slightly decline [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Position Management**: For those who have bought cabin positions but face full capacity or poor booking volume and are worried about falling freight rates (long spot exposure), they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) in the range of 1500 - 1600 to lock in profits [1] - **Cost Management**: For those expecting to book cabins according to orders when shipping companies increase blank sailings or the peak season is approaching (short spot exposure), they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) in the range of 1200 - 1300 to fix booking costs in advance [1] 2. Market Sentiment Analysis - **Likely Positive Factor**: On August 11 local time, a Hamas delegation was to arrive in Cairo to restart the stalled cease - fire negotiations in the Gaza Strip [2] - **Negative Factors**: MSC continued to reduce the spot cabin quotation for the European Line, and the SCFIS European Line continued to decline with an enlarged decline [2] 3. EC Basis and Price Data - **EC Basis Daily Change**: On August 12, 2025, the basis of EC2508 was 153.48 points, down 2.00 points daily and 55.58 points weekly; EC2510 was 817.88 points, down 8.80 points daily and 66.98 points weekly; EC2512 was 493.48 points, up 8.00 points daily and down 113.88 points weekly [3] - **EC Price and Spread**: On August 12, 2025, the closing price of EC2508 was 2082.0 points, up 0.10% daily and down 0.33% weekly; EC2510 was 1417.6 points, up 0.62% daily and 0.33% weekly; EC2512 was 1742.0 points, down 0.46% daily and up 3.05% weekly; EC2602 was 1528.0 points, up 0.72% daily and 2.39% weekly; EC2604 was 1350.0 points, down 0.91% daily and up 1.43% weekly; EC2606 was 1482.1 points, down 1.00% daily and up 0.71% weekly. There were also corresponding changes in price spreads [4] 4. Spot Cabin Quotations - On August 28, Maersk's 20GP total quotation for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route was $1355, up $20 from the previous period, and 40GP was $2270, up $40. In the past three weeks, MSC's 20GP opening quotation for the same route was $1700, down $120, and 40GP was $2840, down $200 [6] 5. Global Freight Rate Index - SCFIS European Line was 2235.48 points, down 62.38 points (- 2.71%); SCFIS US West Line was 1082.14 points, down 47.98 points (- 4.25%); SCFI European Line was $1961/TEU, down $90 (- 4.39%); SCFI US West Line was $1823/FEU, down $198 (- 9.80%); XSI European Line was $3239/FEU, down $52 (- 1.58%); XSI US West Line was $1954/FEU, down $25 (- 1.3%); FBX Composite Freight Rate Index was $2175/FEU, up $40 (1.87%) [7] 6. Global Major Port Waiting Times - On August 11, 2025, compared with the previous day, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.206 days to 0.397 days; Shanghai Port increased by 0.230 days to 1.886 days; Yantian Port decreased by 0.044 days to 0.584 days; Singapore Port increased by 0.157 days to 0.588 days; Jakarta Port decreased by 0.048 days to 1.046 days; Long Beach Port decreased by 0.190 days to 2.070 days; Savannah Port increased by 0.419 days to 1.919 days [12] 7. Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports - On August 11, 2025, compared with the previous day, the speed of 8000 + container ships increased by 0.153 knots to 16.188 knots; 3000 + increased by 0.076 knots to 14.870 knots; 1000 + decreased by 0.019 knots to 13.287 knots. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor decreased by 13 to 12, compared with 5 in the same period last year [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of log green environmental protection products has been weak recently, with funds withdrawing. There is no strong driving force currently, and the long - short situation is relatively balanced. The price mainly revolves around the delivery cost. The 09 contract price is moderately undervalued, while the 11 contract cannot be valued at present. The 09 - 11 spread showed a reverse spread today, which is hard to explain. The inventory is at a low level, and the deliverable goods for the 09 contract are not very abundant. There is some transfer and resale pressure for the 07 contract deliverable goods in Chongqing, but the quantity is limited [3]. - As of August 11, no warehouse receipts have been issued, but they will definitely come out, just a matter of time. In the strategy, it is recommended to go long on the lg2509 contract on dips and conduct a timely positive spread operation on the 09 - 11 contracts. The price has strong support around 820, and it is approaching the peak season in September [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 820 - 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [2]. Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the log import volume is high and the inventory is at a high level, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short the lg2509 log futures according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 850 - 875 [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and the enterprise wants to purchase according to order conditions, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising log prices, it can buy the lg2509 log futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 810 - 820 [2]. Spot and Basis - On August 12, 2025, the spot prices of different specifications of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang are provided, along with data on spot price changes, spot length - adjusted conversions,主力合约 prices, delivery premiums and discounts, basis, and adjusted basis. The calculation formula for the adjusted basis is: Adjusted basis = Spot price after length adjustment (108%) - Main contract price ± Premium or discount [6][8][9]. Log Data Overview | Category | Indicator | Update Date | Value | MoM | YoY | Frequency | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | Radiation pine import volume | 2025 - 06 - 30 | 161 | - 8 | 35.3% | Monthly | 10,000 m³ | | | Port inventory (China) | 2025 - 08 - 08 | 308 | - 9 | - 7.0% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | Inventory | Port inventory (Shandong) | 2025 - 08 - 08 | 1,926,000 | - 24,000 | 8.2% | Weekly | m³ | | | Port inventory (Jiangsu) | 2025 - 08 - 08 | 927,867 | - 32,133 | 2.9% | Weekly | m³ | | | Log port daily average outbound volume | 2025 - 08 - 08 | 6.42 | 0 | 35.7% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | Demand | Daily average outbound volume (Shandong) | 2025 - 08 - 08 | 3.64 | 0.07 | 61.8% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | | Daily average outbound volume (Jiangsu) | 2025 - 08 - 08 | 2.26 | - 0.06 | 29.9% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | Profit | Radiation pine import profit | 2025 - 08 - 15 | - 88 | - 1 | - | Weekly | Yuan/m³ | | | Spruce import profit | 2025 - 08 - 15 | - 89 | - 5 | - | Weekly | Yuan/m³ | | | 3.9 medium (3.8A) Rizhao Port | 2025 - 08 - 12 | 750 | 0 | - 5.1% | Daily | Yuan/m³ | | Main Spot | 4 medium (3.8A) Taicang Port | 2025 - 08 - 12 | 780 | 0 | - 3.7% | Daily | Yuan/m³ | | | 5.9 medium (5.8A) Rizhao Port | 2025 - 08 - 12 | 790 | 0 | - 2.5% | Daily | Yuan/m³ | | | 6 medium (5.8A) Taicang Port | 2025 - 08 - 12 | 800 | 0 | - 4.8% | Daily | Yuan/m³ | | Outer - disk Quotation | CFR | 2025 - 08 - 15 | 116 | 0 | - 1.7% | Weekly | US dollars/JASm³ | [10] Market Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Due to continuous import losses, traders have the intention to jointly support prices; the import cost continues to rise; the overall sentiment of commodities has warmed up; and there is an impact from funds [8]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The peak season may not be prosperous, and the foreign shipment volume continues to increase [8].

Group 1: Report Information - The report is the Nanhua Pulp Industry Risk Management Daily, dated August 12, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.03% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 58.0% [2] - For inventory management with high - level softwood pulp inventory, it is recommended to short pulp futures (sp2509) at 25% hedging ratio in the range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] - For procurement management when paper - making enterprises have low inventory, it is recommended to buy pulp futures (sp2509) at 25% hedging ratio in the range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction and Spot Prices - The main contract closed at 5264 (+38) today [3] - In the spot market, Shandong Yinxing is quoted at 5850 yuan/ton (+0), Shandong Russian Needle at 5250 yuan/ton (-0), and Shandong Jinyu at 4150 yuan/ton (-0) [4] - Asia - Pacific Senbo announced a 150 - yuan/ton increase in the acceptance price of hardwood pulp for long - term contract customers only due to rising costs [4] - Market trading sentiment has improved, and downstream paper mills maintain rigid procurement [4] Group 4: Market Analysis and Strategy - The market currently lacks obvious driving factors, but the fundamentals of pulp have marginally improved with the approaching downstream consumption peak season, overseas mill production cuts, and inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on far - month contracts at low prices [5] Group 5: Price Quotes - Futures contracts: SP2509 closed at 5216 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 14 yuan/ton from a week ago with a 1.1% increase; SP2511 closed at 5264 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous day and 18 yuan/ton from a week ago with a 2% increase; sp2601 closed at 5488 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous day and 84 yuan/ton from a week ago with a 1.55% increase [7][10] - CFR quotes: Softwood pulp was 870 US dollars/ton on August 11, 2025, unchanged; hardwood pulp was 820 US dollars/ton, unchanged [10] - Domestic spot prices: Various types of softwood and hardwood pulp, chemical mechanical pulp, and natural pulp have different price quotes, with some showing slight increases or remaining stable; domestic finished paper prices also vary, with white卡纸 down 2.29% week - on - week and some other papers showing small changes [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The market's optimistic sentiment continued as expected, but there is resistance above. The number of falling stocks was higher than that of rising stocks, and the overall futures index volume shrank, indicating that the upward momentum has been consumed and the further upward space may be limited. The market reaction to the Sino-US joint statement was limited as it was within expectations. The upward industries were mainly robotics and lithium battery concepts, and pro-cyclical industries such as finance, real estate, and consumer goods also had significant gains. The long - term upward trend showed signs of weakness, and risk management should be done under a cautiously optimistic background [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The stock index continued to rise with increasing volume, and the market trend was strong. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 545.47 billion yuan. In the futures index market, each variety rose with shrinking volume, and the decline in open interest indicated that short - covering was the main activity [2] Important Information - The Ministry of Finance and eight other departments prohibited service business entities from using loan funds for real estate development, investment, or arbitrage activities such as wealth management. They also provided interest subsidies to business entities based on the loan principal, with a subsidy period of no more than 1 year and an annual subsidy ratio of 1 percentage point. China and the United States issued a joint statement to suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days starting today [3] Strategy Recommendation - Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.51 | 0.61 | 0.52 | 0.31 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 10.3585 | 5.7355 | 7.9041 | 17.441 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 0.1165 | 0.8277 | - 1.4462 | - 3.8939 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.6148 | 9.4866 | 21.3885 | 33.9249 | | Open interest change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 0.8595 | - 0.172 | - 0.9999 | - 2.049 | [5] Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.50 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.53 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.68 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 18815.20 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (billion yuan) | 545.47 | [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The downstream terminals are hesitant about the negative demand feedback in August caused by US tariffs and believe the current price has mostly priced in previous expectations. The lower support for copper prices has been raised from 77,000 yuan per ton to 78,000 yuan per ton [3]. - The impact of the mine accident at Chile's El Teniente copper mine may exceed expectations, and Coldeco needs to allocate more resources to address copper supply issues. The increase in the US dollar index on Monday evening slightly suppressed the valuation of the non - ferrous metals sector [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 79,020 yuan, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2]. Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan and sell 25% of the CU2510C82000 call option when the volatility is relatively stable [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw material inventory and fear of price increase, buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 77,000 yuan [2]. Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Agreement on tariff policies between the US and other countries; decline of the US dollar index due to employment data; obvious lower support [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Repeated tariff policies; reduced global demand due to tariff policies; extremely high COMEX inventory caused by US copper tariff policy adjustments [4][5]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of Shanghai copper main is 79,020 yuan/ton (0% daily change), Shanghai copper continuous one is 79,020 yuan/ton (0.68% daily increase), Shanghai copper continuous three is 79,030 yuan/ton (0% daily change), LME copper 3M is 9,726.5 US dollars/ton (- 0.42% daily change), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.15 (0% daily change) [4]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaohui, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 79,150 yuan/ton (0.79% daily increase), 79,130 yuan/ton (0.8% daily increase), 78,950 yuan/ton (0.73% daily increase), and 79,190 yuan/ton (0.7% daily increase) respectively [6]. Copper Scrap Price Difference - The current含税 refined - scrap price difference is 1,074.89 yuan/ton (37.1% daily increase), and the reasonable含税 refined - scrap price difference is 1,491.6 yuan/ton (0.41% daily increase) [8]. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 23,275 tons (9.42% daily increase), and the total international copper warehouse receipts are 1,553 tons (0% daily change) [12]. - **LME Copper Inventory**: The total LME copper inventory is 155,700 tons (- 0.1% daily change), and the registered warehouse receipts are 143,725 tons (- 0.73% daily change) [14]. - **COMEX Copper Inventory**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 265,196 tons (1.54% weekly increase), and the registered warehouse receipts are 121,933 tons (- 1.91% weekly change) [15]. Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit and loss is - 100.28 yuan/ton (- 59.08% daily change), and the copper concentrate TC is - 38 US dollars/ton (0% daily change) [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tin prices remained volatile on Monday, in line with expectations. Macro factors have limited impact. On the supply side, the repeated postponement of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has significantly supported tin prices and may have a continuous impact. There is no significant change in demand [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 268,380 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector remaining in the expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations [8] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion speed and its transition from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5][6] 3.3 Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data (Daily)**: The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, Shanghai Tin continuous - one, and Shanghai Tin continuous - three are all 268,380 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The price of LME Tin 3M is 33,715 US dollars/ton, up 110 US dollars or 0.33%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.98, up 0.08 or 1.01% [7] - **Spot Data (Weekly)**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingots, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, etc. have different degrees of weekly increases, with ranges from 0.58% to 0.92% [14] 3.4 Tin Inventory and Other Data - **Inventory Data (Daily)**: The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 143 tons to 7,326 tons, a decrease of 1.91%. The LME tin inventory decreased by 60 tons to 1,710 tons, a decrease of 3.39% [21] - **Other Data**: Tin import profit and loss is - 16,576.95 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore remain unchanged [22]

金融期货早评 宏观：等待美国通胀数据公布 【市场资讯】1）央行今日进行 1120 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 当日实现净回笼 4328 亿元。2） 国务院任免国家工作人员：任命金民卿为当代中国研究所所长。3）中汽协：1-7 月新能源 汽车销售 822 万辆，同比增长 38.5%。4）外交部回应报道称中方希望美放宽高带宽内存芯 片出口管制：中方反对将科技和经贸问题政治化、工具化、武器化。5）特朗普：黄金不会 被加征关税。6）贝森特："绝大部分"美国贸易谈判将在 10 月前完成。7）报道：特朗普政 府扩大美联储主席候选人范围，鲍曼、Jefferson、Logan 入选。8）特朗普给本周五"普特 会""降热度"：是"试探性会晤"、可能直接退出，能否达成协议不由他决定。9）特朗普宣 布华盛顿特区进入公共安全紧急状态。10）中美关税最后期限延长 90 天。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，决策层密集出台了一系列民生政策，也让市场对后续民生政策充 满期待。从长远来看，民生政策仍有较大发力空间。当前政策推进的方向明确且契合民生 需求，但需求的修复难以一蹴而就，仍需等待各项政策形成合力并逐步释放效能。经济数 的变化，国内需求及就业市场呈 ...