Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The core contradiction is that the shutdown of plants in the Shandong market has reduced the external supply of spot goods, leading to a significant increase in spot prices [3]. There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include the 750,000 - ton PDH unit of Zhenhua in the Shandong market breaking down over the weekend, reducing the external supply by 2,000 tons per day and causing the spot market price to rise by 300 yuan/ton, and the planned maintenance of 900,000 - ton PDH units of Wanhua Penglai and Jinneng in the late - month, which will narrow the supply - demand gap in the Shandong market [4]. Bearish factors are the continuous decline of crude oil at the cost end and the price pressure of external propane exports at a high level [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Propylene Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in propylene prices, for a long spot position, it is recommended to sell PL2601 futures at a ratio of 50% in the price range of 6600 - 6700 to lock in profits. Also, sell PL2601C6800 call options at a ratio of 50% in the range of 160 - 200 to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short spot position, it is recommended to buy PL2601 futures at a ratio of 25% in the price range of 6200 - 6300 to lock in procurement costs. Also, sell PL2601P5800 put options at a ratio of 25% in the range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the purchase price if the propylene price falls [2]. Price and Spread Seasonality - There are seasonal charts of propylene market prices in Shandong and the East China region, propylene 01 - 02 and 02 - 03 month - spreads, and PP01 - PL01, PL01 - PG01, PL01 - 3MA01 spreads in 2025 [6][8][9].

【本周关注】 本周数据关注周二20:30美7月CPI数据。事件方面主要关注密集美联储官员讲话，周二22：00，2027年 FOMC票委、里奇蒙联储主席巴尔金发表讲话 ；周三19：30，2027年FOMC票委、里奇蒙联储主席巴尔金 发表讲话；周四01：00，2025年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比就货币政策发表讲话，01：30， 2027年FOMC票委、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克就美国经济前景发表讲话。 南华贵金属日报:贵金属回调 关注晚间美CPI 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月12日 【行情回顾】 周一贵金属市场大幅回调，美国黄金进口关税被否决，贸易关税担忧降温，以及数字货币资产价格上涨、国 内股市表现良好黄金ETF呈现流出，一定程度影响资金投资偏好和资产配置。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报 3393.7美元/盎司，-2.8%；美白银2509合约收报于37.645美元/盎司，-2.33%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约 779.48元/克，-0.81%；SHFE白银2510合约收9210元/千克，-0.72%。特朗普表示，黄金 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of each monthly contract of the container shipping index (European Line) futures fluctuated first and then declined significantly near the close. Except for a slight rebound in the EC2508 contract, the prices of other monthly contracts decreased slightly. The decline was mainly due to the downward opening quotation of MSK's new - week European Line, leading to a downward re - valuation of the European index futures price. In the future, it is expected that the EC may continue to fluctuate and decline or maintain a fluctuating trend. In the medium term, without sudden event factors, the overall futures price trend may still be slightly downward [1]. - A.P. 穆勒 - 马士基集团 (Maersk) 2025 Q2 performance was strong, with revenue increasing by 2.8% year - on - year and EBIT reaching $845 million. The company raised its full - year 2025 financial guidance, benefiting from the strong terminal business, increased shipping volume in the shipping sector, enhanced profitability of the logistics and service business, and continuous optimization of operations and strict cost control in each business segment [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy - **Position Management**: For those who have obtained positions but have full capacity or poor booking volume and are worried about falling freight rates (long position), to prevent losses, they can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling recommendation in the range of 1500 - 1600 [1]. - **Cost Management**: When the shipping company's blank - sailing intensity increases or the market peak season is approaching, and one hopes to book cabins according to the order situation (short position), to prevent the increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, one can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying recommendation in the range of 1200 - 1300 [1]. Market Data - **EC Basis and Price**: On August 11, 2025, the basis of EC2508 was 155.48 points, with a daily decrease of 9.00 points and a weekly decrease of 20.08 points. The closing price of EC2508 was 2080.0 points, with a daily increase of 0.43% and a weekly decrease of 1.99%. Different contracts had different basis, price, and spread changes [4]. - **Global Freight Index**: SCFIS European Line decreased by 2.71% to 2235.48 points; SCFIS US - West Line decreased by 4.25% to 1082.14 points; SCFI European Line decreased by 4.39% to $1961/TEU; SCFI US - West Line decreased by 9.80% to $1823/FEU; XSI European Line decreased by 0.66% to $3291/FEU; XSI US - West Line decreased by 1.6% to $1979/FEU; FBX comprehensive freight index decreased by 2.69% to $2135/FEU [7]. - **Container Shipping Quotes**: On August 21, the total quotes for Maersk's 20GP and 40GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam increased compared to the previous period. On August 28, the opening quotes for 20GP and 40GP decreased compared to the previous week, with current quotes of $1335/TEU and $2230/FEU respectively [6]. Port and Shipping Data - **Global Main Port Waiting Time**: On August 10, 2025, compared with August 9, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.437 days to 0.603 days; Shanghai Port increased by 0.234 days to 1.656 days; etc. Each port had different waiting - time changes [14]. - **Shipping Speed and Waiting Ships in Suez Canal**: On August 10, 2025, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 16.035 knots, an increase of 0.042 knots compared to the previous day; the number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 12, a decrease of 13 compared to the previous day [22].

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 11, 2025 [1] - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - In the short term, the price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coal. The current good profit situation of steel mills and high molten iron production provide support for ferroalloy demand. In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the support from the home appliance and automobile industries for steel depends on policy stimulus. The supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and the support from the ore end for ferromanganese is insufficient. The anti - involution trading sentiment has faded, but the market still has expectations for supply - side contraction. The logic of ferroalloys lies in the price of coking coal, with large short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to lightly test long positions after a pullback [4] Summary by Content Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for ferrosilicon is in the range of 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 69.0%. The monthly price forecast for ferromanganese is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.48% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.5% [3] Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and a recommended entry range of SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventories, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] 利多 Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the ferromanganese industry. This week, the demand for silicon iron in five major steel products was 2.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%. The silicon iron warehouse receipt inventory was 9.82 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.89%, and the total inventory was 17 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3% [5][7] - **Silicon Manganese**: The demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products was 12.52 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. The enterprise inventory was 16.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.52%, the warehouse receipt was 38.02 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.34%, and the total inventory was 54.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. The profit in the northern region was - 98.14 yuan/ton (+70.51), and in the southern region was - 425.86 yuan/ton (+85.56) [8] 利空 Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly production start - up rate of silicon iron production enterprises was 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%, and the weekly output was 10.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.5%. The enterprise inventory was 7.18 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.45%. The profit in the Inner Mongolia production area was - 49 yuan/ton (-134), and in the Ningxia production area was 48 yuan/ton (-234) [8] - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, so the demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak. The weekly production start - up rate of silicon manganese production enterprises was 43.43%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%, and the weekly output was 19.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.62% [8] Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: On August 11, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 22, the 01 - 05 spread was - 98, the 05 - 09 spread was 284, the 09 - 01 spread was - 186. The spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu were 5600, 5550, 5600, 5600, and 5500 respectively. The prices of semi - coke small materials, Qinhuangdao thermal coal, and Yulin thermal coal were 595, 682, and 570 respectively. The warehouse receipt was 19646 [8] - **Silicon Manganese**: On August 8, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 104, the 01 - 05 spread was - 40, the 05 - 09 spread was 138, the 09 - 01 spread was - 98, and the double - silicon spread was - 274. The spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Yunnan were 5850, 5800, 5850, 5870, and 5830 respectively. The prices of Tianjin Australian ore, Tianjin South African ore, Tianjin Gabonese ore, Qinzhou South African ore, Qinzhou Gabonese ore, and Inner Mongolia chemical coke were 40.7, 35, 40.2, 37.8, 40.5, and 1110 respectively. The warehouse receipt was 76045 [9][10] Seasonal Data - The report also provides seasonal data on the market prices, basis, and futures spreads of silicon iron and silicon manganese, as well as the seasonal data of total silicon iron inventory and silicon manganese inventory [11][12][13][14][15][16][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][33]

观点：多单持有 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 国债期货早盘小幅低开后持续下行，跌幅不断扩大，午后价格低位企稳，尾盘回升跌幅有所收窄。长端受到 明显影响，10Y、30Y活跃券收益率均上行2bp以上。公开市场到期5448亿逆回购，日内新做1120亿，净回笼 4328亿元。资金利率小幅上行，DR001和隔夜匿名从上周1.25%回到1.3%，交易所隔夜在1.45%附近。 日内消息： 1.杭州市司法局发布公开征求《杭州市促进具身智能机器人产业发展条例（草案）》意见的公告，将具身智 能机器人产业纳入全市政策支持框架，通过制度设计增强政策合力，进一步规范产业高质量发展路径。 行情研判： 债市今天的最主要的就是受到商品行情的压制，并且盘中随着股票的拉升跌幅不断扩大。目前来看更多是情 绪影响，因为A股对反内卷的反应相对比较有限，除了锂以外相关的煤炭、钢铁板块、能化板块表现相比其他 品种都不强。而除了情绪的压制，资金中枢的反复（隔夜下到1.25%后今日回升），对周末通胀数据的理解 分歧都是多头情绪不够坚定的原因。 机构行为方面，总体来说债基依旧是净申购，但主要 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol (EG) are basically stable, lacking obvious drivers, and its price trend is mainly range - bound. Although there is a cumulative inventory trend, the inventory increase is limited, and the supply - demand is in a fragile balance. With low inventory, the upward elasticity is expected to be large. Also, the coal - based profit has been compressed recently, and the downward space is expected to be limited under stable costs. It is recommended to buy EG on dips, and the entry timing should focus on commodity sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Polyester Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecasts are: 4200 - 4700 for ethylene glycol, 6500 - 7400 for PX, 4400 - 5300 for PTA, and 5800 - 6500 for bottle chips. The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 9.09% for ethylene glycol, 11.78% for PX, 9.30% for PTA, and 7.92% for bottle chips. The current volatility historical percentiles (3 - year) are 1.4% for ethylene glycol, 17.7% for PX, 4.6% for PTA, and 0.9% for bottle chips [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about EG price drops, they can short EG2509 futures (25% hedging ratio, entry range 4450 - 4550), buy EG2509P4350 put options, and sell EG2509C4500 call options (50% hedging ratio, entry range 10 - 15) [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy EG2509 futures (50% hedging ratio, entry range 4300 - 4400), sell EG2509P4350 put options (75% hedging ratio, entry range 10 - 30) to lock in procurement costs [2]. Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factor**: On August 4, the Emergency Management Department released the new "Coal Mine Safety Regulations", leading to a rebound in coal prices and an increase in costs [4]. - **Possible Negative Factor**: There is a market rumor that large filament manufacturers' FDY is suffering heavy losses and may cut production, but the implementation needs further observation [7]. Price and Spread Data on August 11, 2025 - **Price Changes**: Compared with August 8 and August 4, prices of various polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, PX, PTA, EG, etc. have different degrees of changes. For example, Brent crude oil dropped by 0.3 dollars/barrel compared with August 8 and 2.4 dollars/barrel compared with August 4 [8]. - **Spread Changes**: Spreads such as TA1 - 5, EG1 - 5, etc. also changed. For example, TA1 - 5 month - spread increased by 2 yuan/ton compared with August 8 and decreased by 6 yuan/ton compared with August 4 [8]. Production and Sales Rates and Processing Fees - **Production and Sales Rates**: The production and sales rates of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips have different degrees of changes. For example, the polyester filament production and sales rate increased by 24.8% compared with August 8 [9]. - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees of products such as gasoline reforming, aromatics reforming, etc. also changed. For example, the gasoline reforming spread increased by 3 dollars/ton compared with August 8 [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is influenced by frequent export news, causing price fluctuations and interfering with spot transactions. The weekend saw price softening in sensitive areas, and upstream urea factories have gradually lowered their quotes. In the medium term, the second batch of urea exports will support the demand side, and short - term inventory accumulation is unlikely. However, agricultural demand is weakening, and the fundamentals will face pressure in the second half of the year. Overall, urea has support at the bottom and resistance at the top, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. - The confirmed urea exports strengthen the support at the bottom of the futures market, which is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern due to strong speculative pricing. On the other hand, domestic policy pressure, with the association requiring factories to sell urea at low prices, has a negative impact on spot sentiment [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Urea | 1650 - 1950 | 27.16% | 62.1% | | Methanol | 2200 - 2400 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | Polypropylene | 6800 - 7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | Plastic | 6800 - 7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | [3] 3.2 Urea Hedging Strategy | Behavior Guidance | Situation Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory Management - High finished - product inventory, worried about urea price decline | Long | To prevent inventory losses, short urea futures to lock in profits and cover production costs; buy put options to prevent price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs | UR2509, UR2509P1850, UR2509C1950 | Sell, Buy, Sell | 25%, 50%, - | 1800 - 1950, 15 - 20, 45 - 60 | | Procurement Management - Low procurement of regular inventory, hope to purchase according to order situations | Short | To prevent rising urea prices from increasing procurement costs, buy urea futures to lock in procurement costs in advance; sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops | UR2509, UR2509P1750 | Buy, Sell | 50%, 75% | 1750 - 1900, 20 - 25 | [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The stock market showed a strong trend today, mainly driven by the lithium carbonate-related concepts and technology concepts. Affected by this structural market, the small-cap stocks showed obvious strength, while the upstream resource industries with previous high gains and the dividend industries represented by banks led the decline, making the performance of the large-cap index relatively flat, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index closed with a narrow range of fluctuations. From the sentiment perspective, the market was generally optimistic today, and the trading volume significantly expanded, rising again to around 1.8 trillion yuan. Moreover, funds shifted from the dividend industries, showing a certain offensive momentum. However, from the market situation, the bulls still encountered some resistance when surging upwards, and the upward amplitude of the central level was not large. It is analyzed that this is mainly due to the lack of strong incremental positive factors in the short term. The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate and wait for the release of important information within the week [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The stock index rose with increasing volume today, and the small-cap stocks showed a stronger trend. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 116.746 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties rose with increasing volume, and the overall sentiment was optimistic, but there was a large difference between large-cap and small-cap stocks [4]. Important Information - On the morning of August 11, CATL officially responded on the interactive platform that after the mining license for its Yichun project expired on August 9, it has indeed suspended mining operations [5]. - On August 10, US Eastern Time, according to the official website of the US Department of Defense, the Strategic Capital Office of the US Department of Defense announced the issuance of its first direct loan to strengthen the US industrial base and protect the critical mineral supply chain. As part of a broader agreement reached between the Department of Defense and MP Materials, the owner and operator of US rare earth mines, in July 2025, the Strategic Capital Office of the US Department of Defense provided a loan of $150 million (approximately 1.1 billion yuan) [5]. - Recently, seven departments including the People's Bank of China, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - Style Industrialization" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"), proposing to build a financial system that is compatible with the promotion of new - style industrialization and accelerate the construction of a financial powerhouse and a manufacturing powerhouse [5]. Strategy Recommendation Sell cash - secured put options [7]. Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |主力日内涨跌幅（%）| 0.43 | 0.01 | 1.07 | 1.61 | |成交量（万手）| 10.475 | 4.9078 | 9.3503 | 21.3349 | |成交量环比（万手）| 2.9586 | 0.962 | 2.3858 | 5.5757 | |持仓量（万手）| 26.4743 | 9.6586 | 22.3884 | 35.9739 | |持仓量环比（万手）| 1.4212 | 0.68 | 0.9202 | 2.5544 | [7][8] Spot Market Observation | 名称 | 数值 | | --- | --- | |上证涨跌幅（%）| 0.34 | |深证涨跌幅（%）| 1.46 | |个股涨跌数比| 4.03 | |两市成交额（亿元）| 18269.73 | |成交额环比（亿元）| 1167.46 | [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The dry - bulk shipping market shows positive trends. The BDI composite freight index and most sub - ship type freight indices rebounded week - on - week, except for the BPI. The FDI index also rebounded across the board. Strong demand for industrial product shipments, such as coal and iron ore, supports the demand for Capesize and Handymax ships. The number of ships docked at ports in Brazil and Indonesia is continuously increasing [1][3][7][15]. 3. Summary by Section 2.1 BDI运价指数分析 - On August 8, the BDI composite freight index and most ship - type freight indices rebounded week - on - week, with the BSI having the largest rebound. The BDI closed at 2051 points, up 1.64% week - on - week; BCI at 3342 points, up 1.4%; BPI at 1635 points, down 0.55%; BSI at 1320 points, up 4.02%; BHSI at 683 points, up 0.74% [3]. - Compared with the beginning of the year, the BDI increased by 99.32%, BCI by 165.03%, BPI by 63.5%, BSI by 46.83%, and BHSI by 23% [4]. 2.2 FDI远东干散货运价指数 - On August 8, the FDI index rebounded across the board. The FDI composite freight index closed at 1319.64 points, up 1.16% month - on - month; the FDI rental index at 1602.51 points, up 1.51%. The Capesize ship rental index increased by 3.4%, while the Handymax ship rental index decreased by 0.19% [7]. 3.1 当日发运国发运用船数量 - On August 11, among major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 27 ships, Russia 9, Argentina 15, and Australia 4. Among major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 53 ships, Guinea 30, Indonesia 46, Russia 23, South Africa 16, Brazil 15, and the US 12 [13]. 3.2 当日发运量及用船分析 - In terms of agricultural product shipments, corn used 8 ships, wheat 16, soybeans 11, soybean meal 5, and sugar 12. For industrial product shipments, coal used 115 ships, iron ore 75, and other dry goods 18. Agricultural product shipments required the most Post - Panamax ships (21), followed by Supramax (14) and Handysize (11). Industrial product shipments required the most Capesize ships (91), followed by Post - Panamax (66) and Supramax (61) [15]. 4. 主要港口船舶数量跟踪 - The number of ships docked at ports in China and Indonesia continued to increase week - on - week, while that in Australia decreased significantly. From August 1 to August 10, the number of dry - bulk ships docked at Chinese ports increased by 6, at Australian ports decreased by 5, at Indonesian ports increased by 4, at Brazilian ports increased by 8, and at South African ports remained unchanged [15][16]. 5. 运费与商品价格的关系 - On August 8, the freight of the BCI C10_14 route was 27818 dollars per day, and the CIF price of iron ore was 119.3 dollars per thousand tons. The freight of the BPI P3A_03 route was 13213 dollars per day, and the CIF price of thermal coal was 536.98 yuan per ton [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints -受宏观影响煤炭偏强，能化走势趋于一致，但交割临近品种基本面有强弱差异 [4] -甲醇09合约8月港口到港多，华东华南库存基本定满，港口09前压力大；内地因宝丰持续外采维持偏强，但传统下游采购积极性低 [4] -甲醇短期见底需看到港口倒流或内地停止外采 [4] -海外本月伊朗发运快，8月发运34万附近，本月预期80 - 90万，港口累库预期偏强 [4] -09基本面偏弱，关注下游抵抗行为、后续到货压力、港口 - 内地价差及港口提货情况 [4] -本周预计港口甲醇库存累库 [5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Methanol | 2200 - 2400 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | Polypropylene | 6800 - 7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | Plastic | 6800 - 7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | [3] 3.2 Methanol Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - **Scenario**: High finished - product inventory, worried about methanol price decline - **Strategy**: - To prevent inventory losses, short methanol futures (MA2509) to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry interval of 2250 - 2350 [3] - Buy put options (MA2509P2250) to prevent sharp price drops, with a hedging ratio of 50% - Sell call options (MA2509C2350) to reduce capital costs, with an entry interval of 45 - 60 [3] Procurement Management - **Scenario**: Low regular procurement inventory, want to purchase according to orders - **Strategy**: - To prevent rising procurement costs, buy methanol futures (MA2509) to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry interval of 2200 - 2350 [3] - Sell put options (MA2509P2300) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry interval of 20 - 25 [3]