Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) rose collectively. The main contract EC2602 closed up 3.41%, and the far - month contracts closed up between 1 - 2%. The shipping companies' price increase announcements in late December drove up the futures prices [1]. - The SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index rebounded, and the new export order index in November showed a pre - Christmas recovery in terminal transportation demand [1]. - Spot freight rates of shipping companies increased, which also contributed to the rise in futures prices [1]. - The geopolitical conflict is in a stalemate, and its short - term impact on freight rates has weakened. The improvement of the trade war situation and the arrival of the shipping peak season are conducive to the recovery of futures prices. The current freight rate market is mainly affected by seasonal demand, and investors are advised to be cautious [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1665.200, up 54.9; EC sub - main contract closing price: 1080.7, up 6.10 [1]. - EC2602 - EC2604 spread: 584.50, up 38.30; EC2602 - EC2606 spread: 439.60, up 38.90; EC contract basis: - 156.10, down 45.40 [1]. - Futures holding positions: 31382, up 669; EC main contract holding volume: not specified [1]. Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1509.10, up 25.45; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 960.51, up 11.74 [1]. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1114.89, down 6.91; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1447.56, down 1.78; CCFI (composite index) (weekly): not specified [1]. - Container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, up 0.11 [1]. Shipping - related Indexes - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2557.00, up 137.00; Panama Freight Index (daily): 1786.00, up 27.00 [1]. - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 16670.00, unchanged; Average charter price (Capesize ship): 37465.00, down 400.00 [1]. Industry News - The Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao met with the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva, emphasizing China's hope for objective research on international economic and trade issues and strengthening policy communication [1]. - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development reported that global trade volume will increase by about 7% (an increase of $2.2 trillion) in 2025, reaching a record of $35 trillion [1]. - US President Trump said he would use support for immediate and significant interest rate cuts as a "touchstone" for selecting the new Fed Chairman and might adjust tariff policies to help reduce prices [1]. Key Data to Focus On - December 11, 03:00: US Fed interest rate decision (upper limit) as of December 10 [1] - December 11, 21:30: US initial jobless claims (in ten thousand) for the week ending December 6 [1] - December 11, 21:30: US trade balance (in $100 million) for September [1] - December 11, 23:00: US wholesale sales monthly rate for September [1]

国债期货日报 2025/12/10 行业消息 \ 2、海关总署12月8日发布数据显示，2025年前11个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值41.21万亿 元人民币，同比（下同）增长3.6%。其中，出口24.46万亿元，增长6.2%；进口16.75万亿 元，增长0.2%。11月份，我国货物贸易增速回升，进出口总值3.9万亿元，增长4.1%。其中， 出口2.35万亿元，增长5.7%；进口1.55万亿元，增长1.7%。 3、商务部副部长盛秋平在全国零售业创新发展大会上表示，"十五五"时期，要把零售业作 为培育完整内需体系、做强国内大循环的关键着力点，推动行业转向品质驱动、服务驱动，实 现高质量发展。要学习推广胖东来等企业好经验好做法，加快转型提升。 | | 周三国债现券收益率多数下行，到期收益率1-7Y下行约0.5-0.7bp左右，10Y、30Y到期收益率 | | --- | --- | | | 分别变动0.15、-1.10bp左右至1.84%、2.24%。国债期货集体走强，TS、T、TF、TL主力合约 | | | 分别上涨0.04%、0.06%、0.06%、0.30%。DR007加权利率维持1.45%附近震荡。国内基本 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has sufficient cotton supply as the current inspection volume of new cotton has exceeded 4.6 million tons and the port cotton inventory remains high. The import quota for this year is almost used up, with limited RMB shipments, resulting in more imports than exports at cotton ports. As of December 4, the weekly inventory at major import cotton ports increased by 1.92% to 387,600 tons, reaching a five - month high. The downstream demand is relatively differentiated, with the demand for high - count yarn improving, which boosts the cotton market to some extent. Overall, although the demand shows marginal improvement, the supply is still abundant, limiting the rebound of cotton prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 13,780, up 40; cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 19,965, up 20 - Cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 136,077, down 5702; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 250, up 172 - Main contract positions: cotton (daily, lots): 474,318, down 4249; cotton yarn (daily, lots): 18,058, up 688 - Warehouse receipt quantity: cotton (daily, sheets): 2970, up 221; cotton yarn (daily, sheets): 12, unchanged - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 15,004, up 5; China Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 20,800, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 12,846, up 34; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 21,036, down 23 - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13,873; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Combed Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 22,209, down 25 [2] Spot Market - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 12,846, up 34; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 21,036, down 23 - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13,873; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Combed Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 22,209, down 25 [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area (annual, thousand hectares): 2838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 6.16, up 0.54 [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5796, down 5 - Industrial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 85, up 6.5 - Cotton import volume: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 9, down 1; cotton yarn import volume: monthly value (monthly, tons): 140,000, up 10,000 - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 1131, down 7 - Commercial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 293.06, up 190.89 [2] Downstream Situation - Inventory days of yarn (monthly, days): 26.12, up 1.27; inventory days of grey fabric (monthly, days): 31.97, up 0.85 - Cloth output: monthly value (monthly, billion meters): 26.2, down 1.8; yarn output: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 2.001, down 0.073 - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories: monthly value (monthly, million US dollars): 11,003,480.43, down 1,449,766.57; export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: monthly value (monthly, million US dollars): 11,258,418.92, down 708,097.08 [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for cotton (%): 11.58, up 4.1; implied volatility of at - the - money put option for cotton (%): 11.58, up 4.1 - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 5.75, down 0.03; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 6.43, down 0.21 [2] Industry News - As of November 4, 2025, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 78,625 lots, an increase of 3267 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 123,469 lots, a decrease of 6936 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 44,844 lots, a decrease of 10,203 lots from the previous week - As of the end of November 2025, according to statistics from the Cotton Information Network, the national cotton commercial inventory was 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons from the previous month, a growth rate of 59.82%, and 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, a growth rate of 0.21%. Among them, as of the end of November, the cotton inventory in Xinjiang was 3.7905 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.4497 million tons, and 76,400 tons lower than the same period last year - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures closed higher on Tuesday. Traders digested the monthly supply - demand report released by the US Department of Agriculture, which showed that the US cotton production and ending inventory forecasts were raised. The ICE March cotton futures contract rose 0.18 cents, or 0.28%, to settle at 63.86 cents per pound [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The production of primary lead remains stable overall, but the shortage of raw material supply restricts further significant production growth. The supply of lead concentrate remains tight. The production of recycled lead shows signs of recovery, but the growth is less than expected. The supply of waste batteries is tight, which restricts the release of recycled lead production capacity. If environmental control remains stable and waste battery supply stays at the current level, recycled lead production is expected to maintain a stable growth trend. On the demand side, orders in the leading energy storage battery sector are relatively stable, supporting the demand for lead. However, due to the "trade - in" policy, the traditional replacement market is dull. Downstream battery enterprises face inventory pressure and are cautious in purchasing high - priced lead sources. Overall, the price of Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation today [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,115 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the 3 - month lead quotation on LME is 1,976.5 US dollars/ton, down 22 US dollars. The spread between the 01 - 02 month contracts of Shanghai lead is - 15 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai lead is 79,017 lots, down 1,395 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 238 lots, an increase of 1,158 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 0 tons, unchanged. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 34,735 tons, down 3,064 tons; the LME lead inventory is 236,925 tons, down 2,900 tons [3]. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,975 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,150 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 140 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 49.76 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.81 US dollars. The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,771 yuan, an increase of 166 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,930 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The monthly supply - demand balance of lead by WBMS is 22,000 tons, an increase of 45,500 tons. The monthly capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 43.14%, an increase of 7.58%. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 68.49%, a decrease of 13.32%. The weekly output of primary lead is 38,600 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 100 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The monthly supply - demand balance of lead by ILZSG is - 2,500 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons. The monthly global lead ore production by ILZSG is 383,300 tons, an increase of 3,400 tons. The monthly lead ore import volume is 98,300 tons, a decrease of 52,300 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 3,812.24 tons, an increase of 2,304.32 tons. The average weekly domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly refined lead export volume is 2,098.42 tons, an increase of 612.28 tons. The average daily price of waste batteries is 9,851.79 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46.42 yuan [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 45,661,000, a decrease of 350,000. The average daily price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,400 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. The daily Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 1,934.16 points, down 13.49 points. The monthly automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, an increase of 52,000. The monthly new energy vehicle production is 1.71 million vehicles, an increase of 130,000 [3]. Industry News - Trump may reduce tariffs on some over - priced goods and considers an immediate interest - rate cut as the "touchstone" for choosing the new Fed chairman. Trump starts the final round of interviews for the Fed chairman this week, with Hassett leading. Hassett believes the Fed has enough room for a significant interest - rate cut. The US job openings in October reached the highest level in five months, but recruitment remains sluggish. The Thailand - Cambodia conflict continues. Zelensky refuses to "cede territory" and will submit an updated peace proposal to the US on the 10th. Ukraine is consulting with the US and Europe on three key documents, and the US is pressuring Zelensky to make a quick decision. The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps the interest rate at 3.6% as expected, emphasizing the upward risk of inflation, and the market expects the interest - rate cut cycle may end [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The apple market shows mixed trends. While there is a slight increase in the number of in -quiring customers in the producing areas, most are still observing. The overall trading of late - Fuji apples remains light, with limited orders from merchants in the producing areas. The出库 in Shandong is slow, and the willingness of fruit farmers in Shaanxi to sell is still low. The arrival volume in the sales areas has increased slightly, but the trading atmosphere is still light, and the terminal sales are slow, increasing the risk of price decline. The citrus market is impacting the apple market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9510 yuan/ton, and the main contract position is 138,631 hands, with a week - on - week increase of 6,486 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 6,198 hands, a week - on - week decrease of 1,566 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in different regions are as follows: 5.25 yuan/jin in Gansu Jingning (paper - bag 75 and above), 2.6 yuan/jin in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bag 75 and above), 4.2 yuan/jin in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bag 70 and above semi - commercial), and 4 yuan/jin in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bag 80 and above secondary fruit farmer's goods) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The annual apple production in the country is 5,128.51 million tons. The weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.37 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.07 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan/kg. The Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0.58, and the national apple cold - storage total inventory is 763.51 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.24 million tons. The monthly apple export volume is 80,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import amount of fresh, dried fruits and nuts decreased by 14.3%. The month - on - month export amount of apples decreased by 503,616 US dollars, and the profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apple storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale prices of duck pears, bananas, and watermelons are 6.74 yuan/kg, 6.33 yuan/kg, and 5.47 yuan/kg respectively. The weekly average number of early - morning arriving trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets is 17.2, 19.6, and 26.8 respectively, with week - on - week increases of 1.2, 0.4, and 1.6 [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 22.41%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.21%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.39%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.24% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The market in apple - producing areas has changed little. The number of in -quiring customers has increased slightly, but most are still observing. Shaanxi and Shandong mainly rely on merchants' self - pick - up of goods, and most of the small - volume purchases are cheap goods. The trading in the Gansu producing area is mainly high - quality inventory Fuji, and the trading enthusiasm has slightly declined [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The acquisition of grey jujubes in the main production areas of Xinjiang is nearing completion, with an overall progress of about 90%. As of December 4, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes this week was 13,910 tons, an increase of 3,062 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 28.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 135.16% [2]. - This week, the acquisition progress of jujubes in the Third Agricultural Division of Xinjiang and Maigaiti area has accelerated. Enterprises and merchants from various places have high enthusiasm for procurement, and the order signing volume has increased significantly. The prices of products in the sales areas have also stabilized. With the increase in downstream procurement, some holders have tentatively adjusted their quotes slightly. The subsequent actual sales volume should be noted. In the short term, the price center has begun to rise. If the actual demand improves, the probability of price rebound will increase [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for jujubes was 9,290 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract was 105,657 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 43,099 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 16,060 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 456 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 850 sheets, with a week - on - week increase of 164 sheets. The total number of effective warehouse receipt forecasts was 642 sheets, with a week - on - week decrease of 164 sheets [2]. Spot Market - The prices of jujube bulk goods in Kashgar, Alar, and Aksu remained unchanged at 6.5 yuan/kg, 5.65 yuan/kg, and 5.15 yuan/kg respectively. The wholesale prices of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei and Henan were 4.4 yuan/jin and 4.45 yuan/jin respectively, remaining unchanged [2]. - The prices of special - grade jujubes in Henan, Hebei, and Guangdong were 9.9 yuan/kg, 9.84 yuan/kg, and 10.8 yuan/kg respectively. The price of Hebei jujubes increased by 0.02 yuan/kg week - on - week, while the others remained unchanged. The price of first - grade jujubes in Guangdong was 9.6 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged [2]. Upstream Market - The annual jujube output was 6.069 million tons, with an increase of 3.187 million tons compared to the previous year. The planting area was 1.993 million hectares, with a decrease of 41,000 hectares compared to the previous year [2]. Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory was 13,910 tons, with an increase of 3,062 tons compared to the previous week. The monthly jujube export volume was 2,205,220 kg, with a decrease of 78,451 kg compared to the previous month. The cumulative monthly jujube export volume was 25,753,622 kg, with an increase of 2,205,220 kg [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of jujubes of Hao Xiang Ni was 36,480.43 tons, with a decrease of 2,981.06 tons compared to the previous period. The cumulative year - on - year production growth rate of jujubes was 1.47%, with a decrease of 34.59 percentage points compared to the previous period [2]. Industry News - The trading in the Cui'erzhuang market in Hebei was mainly for new products. After the new - season harvest, the products were gradually sent back to the factory for processing. At the end of the acquisition in the production area, the procurement cost of merchants was clear, and the enthusiasm of downstream buyers increased, resulting in a stable and firm spot price. In the Ruyifang market in Guangdong, 2 trucks of goods arrived, the mainstream spot price was stable, and downstream merchants purchased according to demand [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Some farmers are reluctant to sell and support prices, and demand is increasing, supporting the narrow - range adjustment of spot prices. However, the oversupply situation continues, and the upside space of prices is still limited. The main 2603 contract of live pigs closed down 1.01%, giving back some of the gains of the previous two trading days, and the rebound was a bit weak, mainly in a range - bound pattern [2] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs was 11,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 149,428 lots, an increase of 602 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 373 lots, an increase of 265 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 44,051 lots, an increase of 102 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Prices - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan was 11,300 yuan/ton with no change; in Siping, Jilin it was 11,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; in Yunfu, Guangdong it was 12,400 yuan/ton with no change. The main live - pig basis was - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The live - pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, an increase of 12.33 million heads; the inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million heads, a decrease of 450,000 heads [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year increase in CPI was 0.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,040 yuan/ton with no change. The spot price of corn was 2,357.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.97 yuan. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig - feed cost index was 896.72, an increase of 0.4. The monthly output of feed was 29.57 million tons, a decrease of 1.717 million tons. The price of binary breeding sows was 1,437 yuan/head, a decrease of 12 yuan. The breeding profit from purchasing piglets was - 259.39 yuan/head, a decrease of 10.57 yuan; the profit from self - breeding and self - raising was - 167.69 yuan/head, a decrease of 19.7 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons. The average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas was 13.9 yuan/kg with no change [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live - pig slaughtering enterprises was 38.34 million heads, an increase of 2.5 million heads. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 519.9 billion yuan, an increase of 69.04 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Industry News - According to Mysteel data, on December 10, the daily slaughter volume of live pigs by sample slaughtering enterprises in key provinces was 160,989 heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. Currently, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms has recovered, and the slaughter of large pigs by散户 has increased. However, as prices fall, the reluctance to sell among some farmers is gradually rising. On the demand side, winter is the peak season for pork consumption. The activities of curing and making sausages in southwest and other regions continue to increase, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has continuously rebounded, and consumption support has strengthened [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The freight rate market is currently influenced by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more severely. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. - The improvement of the trade - war situation, the substantial easing of the geopolitical conflict, and the arrival of the fourth - quarter shipping peak season also have certain impacts [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Data**: The EC2602 main contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures closed up 1.17%, and the far - month contracts closed down between 1 - 2%. The EC2602 - EC2604 spread increased by 8.60 to 546.20, and the EC2602 - EC2606 spread was 400.70. The EC contract basis was - 110.70, down 4.50. The main contract's open interest decreased by 753 to 30713 hands [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1509.10, up 25.45 points from last week, a 1.7% week - on - week increase. The SCFI (composite index) decreased by 5.50 to 1397.63, and the CCFI (composite index) decreased by 6.91 to 1114.89. The CCFI (European line) decreased by 1.78 to 1447.56. The Baltic Dry Index decreased by 33.00 to 2727.00, and the Panamax Freight Index decreased by 24.00 to 1837.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships remained unchanged at 16670.00, and that of Capesize ships decreased by 400.00 to 37465.00 [1]. 3.2 Industry News - The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2026, emphasizing stable progress and quality improvement in next year's economic work [1]. - US President Trump plans to sign an AI regulatory executive order and launch a long - awaited agricultural aid program worth $12 billion. He also claims that the US inflation problem is basically solved [1]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky held talks with European leaders on a new peace plan for the Ukraine crisis, reaching consensus on security guarantees, post - war reconstruction, and future defense support [1]. 3.3 Market Analysis - Shipping companies' price increases in late December drove up the container shipping index (European line) futures price. The new export order index in China's manufacturing PMI data in November recovered to 47.9, indicating a pre - Christmas recovery in terminal transportation demand [1]. - In the spot freight market, Maersk's 51 - week opening quotes for large containers were between 2300 - 2400 US dollars, and MSC's online quotes were raised to 2665 US dollars [1]. - Geopolitically, the Russia - Ukraine conflict is in a stalemate, with reduced Western aid to Ukraine. Germany's economic recovery and potential fiscal expansion policies may boost market confidence in the eurozone [1]. 3.4 Key Events to Follow - China's November CPI annual rate on December 10 at 09:30 [1]. - The US third - quarter labor cost index quarterly rate on December 10 at 21:30 [1].

贵金属期货日报 2025/12/9 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 13607 | 951.540 | -7.2↓ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | | -99.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) 18,604.00 | 194,493.00 | -2700.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | | -1582.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 1,309,030.00 | 229,564.00 | -68667.00↓ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | | -724701.00↓ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) | 91299 | 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 717,788 | 18497↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 | 947.13 | -6.97↓ 华通一号白银现货价 | 13,630.00 | 49.00↑ | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -4.41 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The platinum and palladium futures main contracts fluctuated weakly in intraday trading, with platinum's decline greater than palladium's. In the short - term, the realization of the interest - rate cut expectation may continue the price correction. In the long - term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectation, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the long - term expansion of hydrogen economy demand. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the popularization of electric vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support the price. The current low price of palladium may make it a cost - effective choice again, and there may be a follow - up catch - up rally. The London platinum spot is expected to face resistance at $1750 per ounce and support at $1500 per ounce; the London palladium spot may encounter resistance at $1500 per ounce and support at $1350 per ounce [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 436.40 yuan/gram, down 5.75 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 380.45 yuan/gram, down 1.80 yuan. The main contract holding volume of platinum was 10,387.00 hands, down 277.00 hands; the main contract holding volume of palladium was 3,179.00 hands, up 90.00 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 431.08 yuan/gram, down 4.22 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot price was 376.50 yuan/gram, up 16.50 yuan. The platinum main contract basis was - 5.32 yuan/gram, up 1.53 yuan; the palladium main contract basis was - 3.95 yuan/gram, up 18.30 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons; the total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons; the total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 99.11, up 0.12; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.91%, up 0.03%. The VIX volatility index was 16.66, up 1.25 [2] 3.5 Industry News - The Fed is scheduled to hold an interest - rate meeting on December 9th and 10th, and the market generally expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Japan's Q3 real GDP was revised down to a 0.6% quarterly contraction and a 2.3% annual contraction. Japan's nominal wages rose 2.6% year - on - year in October, but real wages after inflation fell for the tenth consecutive month. The European Central Bank's hawkish Executive Board member Schnabel believes that economic and inflation risks are skewed upwards and is satisfied with the market's bet on the ECB's next rate hike [2] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - On December 9th at 19:00, the US November NFIB Small Business Confidence Index; at 23:00, the US October JOLTs Job Openings (in millions). On December 11th at 03:00, the Fed will announce the December FOMC meeting interest - rate decision [2]