Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, industrial silicon rose 5.13% and polysilicon rose 14.49%. The industrial silicon futures market showed a trend of first falling and then rising, while the polysilicon futures market broke through the platform [4]. - For industrial silicon, next week's supply is expected to increase, mainly due to the significant increase in production in Southwest China during the wet season. The demand from the three major downstream industries remains flat, and the industry inventory is still at a high level. It is recommended to trade the main contract in the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7500 - 9500 [4]. - For polysilicon, the supply is increasing and the demand is weakening. It is expected that the market will continue to adjust next week. It is recommended to trade the main contract in the range of 52000 - 58000, with a stop - loss range of 49000 - 60000 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon rose 5.13% and polysilicon rose 14.49% this week. The industrial silicon futures market was volatile, and the polysilicon futures market broke through the platform on Friday [4]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is expected to increase, especially in Southwest China. The demand from organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy industries remains flat. The industry inventory is high, and inventory digestion faces pressure [4]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply is increasing, but the increase is expected to be limited. Demand is weakening due to weak terminal demand. The market is expected to continue to adjust next week [4]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Trade the industrial silicon main contract in the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7500 - 9500. Trade the polysilicon main contract in the range of 52000 - 58000, with a stop - loss range of 49000 - 60000 [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices rose this week [5]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Industrial silicon spot prices rose, and the basis strengthened. Polysilicon spot prices also rose, and the basis strengthened [10][14]. - **Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization**: As of September 4, 2025, the national industrial silicon production was about 8.11 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 55.85% [19]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Cost**: This week, industrial silicon raw materials and electricity prices remained flat. During the wet season, the overall cost remained low [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 4, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 50072, a decrease of 637 compared with the previous week [28]. - **Downstream Industries**: - **Organic Silicon**: Production and operating rate remained flat. Due to cost and price declines, profits decreased. It is expected that production will remain stable, and the demand for industrial silicon will remain flat [30][37]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Spot prices rose, and inventory continued to increase. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to be negative [43]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: Silicon wafer prices were flat, and battery cell prices remained the same. The demand for polysilicon is expected to increase slightly [50]. - **Polysilicon Industry**: Cost and profit increased, and inventory decreased. As of September 5, polysilicon profit was 12070 yuan/ton, the average cost was 39430 yuan/ton, and inventory was 26.8 million tons [57][63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply rhythm is expected to gradually recover, and there is pressure on supply due to the peak of the previous increase cycle in the inventory of breeding sows in September and the increase in the number of newborn piglets in the past six months. The planned monthly slaughter volume in September increased month - on - month according to Mysteel data. - On the demand side, there is a slight recovery in demand due to centralized procurement by schools at the beginning of the semester, procurement for the Ghost Festival, and the decrease in temperature in the north, leading to a continuous increase in the slaughterhouse's operating rate. - At the beginning of the month, the slowdown in slaughter and the slight recovery in demand led to an increase in spot prices. However, due to market expectations of supply in September, futures prices were weak, and the basis strengthened. - As the slaughter rhythm recovers and supply increases, and after the centralized procurement by schools before the Ghost Festival and at the beginning of the semester ends, demand growth is limited. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, pig prices may face pressure and mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner. It is recommended to conduct short - term bearish trading [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Pig prices broke through the support level and declined. The main contract 2511 dropped 1.7% this week [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply pressure exists as the slaughter rhythm will recover and the supply of breeding sows and newborn piglets suggests an increase. Demand has a slight recovery but is limited after the special procurement periods end. Pig prices may be under pressure and operate in a weak and volatile manner. Short - term bearish trading is recommended [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The main contract 2511 of pig futures dropped 1.7% this week [6][10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 5th, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased by 1222 lots to 14,854 lots, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 430, unchanged from last week [12][16]. - **Contract Spread**: The spread between lh2511 and lh2601 contracts was - 435, and the spread between lh2511 and lh2603 contracts was 255 [20]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Basis**: This week, the basis of the September contract was 820 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 575 yuan/ton [27]. - **Spot Price**: The average national pig market price was 13.90 yuan/kg this week, up 0.16 yuan/kg from last week and 0.72% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.00 yuan/kg, down 0.55 yuan/kg from last week and 9.88% from the same period last month [34]. - **Other Prices**: The national pork market price was 24.81 yuan/kg in the week of August 28th, down 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. The pig - grain ratio was 5.89 as of August 20th, down 0.05 from the previous week [38][43]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In late July 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.41 million, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.025%, reaching 103.6% of the normal level. In August, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.83% month - on - month and increased by 1.86% year - on - year, while in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased slightly by 0.09% month - on - month and increased by 5.92% year - on - year [48]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, an increase of 7.16 million from the end of the previous quarter and 9.14 million year - on - year. In August, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year, and in 85 small and medium - sized farms in July, it increased by 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [54]. - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In August, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 10.7035 million, a month - on - month increase of 2.56% and a year - on - year increase of 23.49%. In July, the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 473,700, a month - on - month decrease of 1.44% and a year - on - year increase of 54.30%. The average slaughter weight of national ternary hybrid pigs this week was 123.41 kg, an increase of 0.03 kg from last week [59]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profit**: As of September 5th, the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 126.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 52.65 yuan/head; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 22.17 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 20.42 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.23 yuan/head, with the loss expanding by 0.02 yuan/head week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - crossbred chickens was 1.00 yuan/head [64]. - **Import Situation**: In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative imported pork was 630,000 tons, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons. In July, the imported pork was 90,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [65][69]. - **Substitute Situation**: As of the week of September 5th, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.3 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of September 4th, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.40 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 from last week [73]. - **Feed Situation**: As of September 5th, the spot price of soybean meal was 3073.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2362.94 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of August 29th, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 919.08, an increase of 1.24% from last week. This week, the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. In July 2025, the monthly feed production was 2827.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 110.4 tons [75][83][87]. - **CPI**: As of July 2025, the year - on - year increase in China's CPI was 0.0% [91]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughter and Inventory**: In the 36th week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 31.27%, a 2 - percentage - point increase from last week and higher than the same period last year. The domestic frozen product storage capacity rate was 17.56%, unchanged from last week [94]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.32%. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [99]. 3.7 Pig - Related Stocks The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data or analysis is provided [100].

瑞达期货研究院 目录 「2025.09.05」 焦煤市场周报 宏观扰动远月涨停，盘面宽幅震荡运行 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 523家炼焦煤矿山产量：原煤日均产量170.1万吨，环比减18.6万吨。 2. 314家独立洗煤厂：精煤日产25.2万吨，环比减0.7万吨。 3. 炼焦煤总库存（独立焦化厂+6大港口+钢厂）：为1906.51万吨，环比增加8.14万吨，同比增加6.18%。 4. 仓单：唐山蒙5#精煤报1350，折盘面1130 5. 吨焦盈利情况：全国30家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利64元/吨。 6. 钢厂盈利率：钢厂盈利率63.64%，环比上周减少1.30个百分点，同比去年增加59.74个百分点。 7. 需求端铁水产量：受阅兵钢厂控产影响，本期铁水大幅下降。日均铁水产量228.84万吨，环比上周减少11.29万吨，同比 去年增加6.23万吨。 「 周度要点小结2 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Carbonate Lithium Market Weekly Report: Supply and Demand Increase at Peak Season, Lithium Price May Be Supported" [2] - Date: September 5, 2025 - Researcher: Chen Sijia 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of carbonate lithium may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with industrial inventory depletion and positive consumption expectations. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trading at low prices with a light position and control risks [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the carbonate lithium main contract fluctuated weakly, with a change rate of - 3.78% and an amplitude of 8.16%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 74,260 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro Situation**: China's economic prosperity level continued to expand. In August, the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, with month - on - month increases of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points [4]. - **Fundamentals**: On the raw material side, there is still uncertainty in domestic mining area supply, and overseas miners still have the sentiment of holding prices and being reluctant to sell. Due to the continuous weakening of the carbonate lithium spot, the lithium ore quotation has been adjusted. In terms of supply, new production lines of domestic smelters have been put into operation, and the production enthusiasm has increased, so the domestic supply is expected to increase. In terms of demand, it is currently the traditional peak consumption season, and downstream material factories have purchasing needs. The recent decline in lithium prices may strengthen the trading sentiment in the spot market. In terms of inventory, the inventory of upstream smelters has continued to decline, and the inventory of downstream has increased, with the overall inventory showing a slight decline [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of September 5, 2025, the closing price of the carbonate lithium main contract was 74,260 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2,920 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 380 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 460 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spot Price**: As of September 5, 2025, the average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 74,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4,900 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 490 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,980 yuan/ton [16]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Spodumene**: As of September 5, 2025, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 922 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 28 US dollars/ton. The spot exchange rate of US dollars against the RMB was 7.1402, with a week - on - week increase of 0.02% [20]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of September 5, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. The average price of amblygonite was 7,125 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 525 yuan/ton [25]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of carbonate lithium was 13,845.31 tons, a decrease of 3,852.31 tons from June, a decline of 21.77%, and a year - on - year decline of 42.67%. The monthly export volume was 366.347 tons, a decrease of 63.31 tons from June, a decline of 14.74%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.2%. As of August 2025, the monthly output of carbonate lithium was 45,880 tons, an increase of 1,280 tons from July, an increase of 2.87%, and a year - on - year increase of 31.09%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [31]. 3.5 Downstream Market - **Demand Side**: - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: As of September 5, 2025, the average price was 56,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8,000 yuan/ton. As of July 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 179,450 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons from June, an increase of 3.94%, and a year - on - year increase of 44.16% [34]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: The average price was 34,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. As of July 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 213,960 tons, an increase of 10,660 tons from June, an increase of 5.24%, and a year - on - year increase of 26.6%. The monthly operating rate was 51%, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [37]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of July 2025, the monthly output was 61,920 tons, an increase of 2,920 tons from June, an increase of 4.95%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.09%. The monthly operating rate was 52%, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 1%. The prices of 811 - type, 622 - type, and 523 - type ternary materials continued to weaken [41]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of July 2025, the monthly output was 10,120 tons, a decrease of 680 tons from June, a decline of 6.3%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.21%. The average price was 32,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton [46]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of July 2025, the monthly output was 12,870 tons, an increase of 470 tons from June, an increase of 3.79%, and a year - on - year increase of 71.14%. The average price was 230,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,000 yuan/ton [49]. - **Application Side**: - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of July 2025, the penetration rate was 44.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68% and a year - on - year increase of 8.61%. The monthly output was 1,243,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1.97%; the sales volume was 1,262,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5.04%. The cumulative export volume was 1.308 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 84.75% [51][56]. 3.6 Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is - 0.28, with a reverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of the option at - the - money contract and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to build a long straddle option to bet on an increase in volatility [59].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share major indices generally declined this week, with only the ChiNext Index recording an increase. The four stock index futures also declined collectively, and large-cap blue-chip stocks were relatively resilient. The market trading activity remained high, with daily trading volume at the level of two trillion. Overseas, the US August ADP data fell short of expectations, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, and the external environment for A-shares showed signs of loosening. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI has been in the contraction range for 5 consecutive months, and the net profit growth rates of individual stocks in different indices showed different trends. The northbound funds were actively traded, and the margin trading balance continued to rise. Overall, the market will enter a performance and policy vacuum period, and there is a need for market correction. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7][100] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Futures Contracts**: IF2509 had a weekly decline of -1.10%, IH2509 fell -1.32%, IC2509 dropped -1.40%, and IM2509 decreased -1.91%. On Friday, they had gains of 2.82%, 1.64%, 4.41%, and 3.61% respectively [10] - **Spot Indices**: The CSI 300 declined -0.81%, the SSE 50 fell -1.15%, the CSI 500 dropped -1.85%, and the CSI 1000 decreased -2.59%. On Friday, they had gains of 2.18%, 1.09%, 3.22%, and 2.90% respectively [10] 2. News Overview - China's official manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI in August were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, with month-on-month increases of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points, which was bearish [13] - Nearly 60% of A-share listed companies achieved year-on-year revenue growth, and over 75% achieved profitability in the first half of 2025, which was bullish [14] - The US August ADP employment increase was far lower than expected, and the market bet that the probability of a Fed rate cut in September was close to 100%, which was bullish [15] 3. Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Main Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index declined -1.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell -0.83%, the STAR 50 dropped -5.42%, the SME 100 decreased -2.29%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.35%. On Friday, they had gains of 1.24%, 3.89%, 3.39%, 3.33%, and 6.55% respectively [18] - **Overseas Main Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 rose 0.65%, the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.32%, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.36%, and the Nikkei 225 rose 0.70%. On Thursday, they had gains of 0.83%, 0.42%, 1.43%, and 1.03% respectively [19] - **Industry Sector Performance**: Most industry sectors declined. National defense and military, and computer sectors weakened significantly, while power equipment and comprehensive sectors led the gains [23] - **Industry Sector Main Fund Flows**: Industry main funds generally showed net outflows, with significant net outflows in computer and electronics sectors [27] - **SHIBOR Short-term Interest Rates**: SHIBOR short-term interest rates ran smoothly, and the capital price was low [31] - **Other Data**: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 5.792 billion yuan in the secondary market, the restricted share lifting market value was 21.82 billion yuan, and the northbound funds had a total trading volume of 1.428832 trillion [34] - **Futures Basis and Spread**: IF and IH main contract bases fluctuated, while IC and IM main contract bases converged [42][51] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - A-share major indices generally declined this week, and the four stock index futures also declined collectively. The market trading activity remained high. Overseas, the Fed rate cut expectation increased, and domestically, the manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range. The market will enter a performance and policy vacuum period, and there is a need for market correction. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [100]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper showed a slightly stronger weekly trend, with a weekly increase of +0.92% and an amplitude of 1.56%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 80,140 yuan/ton [6]. - Internationally, the US ISM Manufacturing Index in August rose slightly from 48 in July to 48.7, below the market - expected 49 and remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. Domestically, in August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month; and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points month - on - month [6]. - Fundamentally, the TC fee for copper ore is running in a low range, and the raw material price is firm, providing cost support for copper prices. In terms of supply, domestic smelter production and operating rates have declined due to maintenance, and the supply shortage of raw materials such as copper concentrate and scrap copper has also limited smelter capacity to some extent, so domestic refined copper production may decrease. In terms of demand, in the short term, the relatively strong copper price due to the expected Fed rate cut has suppressed the downstream pick - up sentiment, and the trading sentiment in the spot market has cooled. In the long term, the traditional consumption peak season is still expected to boost demand, and with the increase in new orders and a slight correction in copper prices, the downstream purchasing sentiment may gradually recover. In terms of inventory, social inventory has accumulated due to a slight slowdown in demand. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and temporarily weak demand, with a positive industrial outlook [6]. - The recommended strategy is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai copper had a slightly stronger weekly trend, with a closing price of 80,140 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of +0.92%, and an amplitude of 1.56% [6]. - **International and Domestic Economic Indicators**: Internationally, the US ISM Manufacturing Index in August was 48.7, below expectations. Domestically, in August, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index all increased month - on - month [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost support from raw materials, supply may decrease due to smelter issues, short - term demand is weak but long - term demand is expected to improve, and inventory has accumulated [6]. - **Strategy**: Light - position oscillating trading [7] 3.2 Spot - Futures Market Situation - **Contract Indicators**: As of September 5, 2025, the basis of the main contract of Shanghai copper was - 90 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from last week; the contract price was 80,140 yuan/ton, up 730 yuan/ton from last week; the position was 187,152 lots, up 13,326 lots from last week; the inter - monthly spread was 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week [12][15]. - **Spot Price**: The average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 80,050 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton week - on - week [15]. - **Premium and Position**: The average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 850 lots, an increase of 11,386 lots from last week [24]. - **Option Indicators**: The short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of Shanghai copper fell below the 50th percentile of historical volatility; the put - call ratio of option positions was 0.72, a decrease of 0.0766 from last week [29]. 3.3 Industrial Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Raw Material Prices**: The copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 70,440 yuan/ton, up 780 yuan/ton from last week; the southern copper scrap processing fee was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [30]. - **Imports**: In July 2025, the import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5601 million tons, an increase of 210,500 tons from June, a growth rate of 8.96%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 18.41%. The refined - scrap copper price difference (tax - included) was 1,529.89 yuan/ton, up 8.06 yuan/ton from last week [36]. - **Global Production and Inventory**: In June 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1,916 thousand tons, a decrease of 81 thousand tons from May, a decline of 4.06%; the global capacity utilization rate was 79%, a decrease of 0.9% from May. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 550,000 tons, an increase of 77,000 tons month - on - month [41]. 3.3.2 Supply Side - **Refined Copper Production**: In July 2025, the domestic monthly production of refined copper was 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from June, a decline of 2.46%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.14%. In June 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,431 thousand tons, an increase of 45 thousand tons from May, an increase of 1.89%; the capacity utilization rate was 83.5%, an increase of 3.7% from May [46]. - **Imports**: In July 2025, the import volume of refined copper was 335,969.236 tons, a decrease of 1,073.33 tons from June, a decline of 0.32%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.05%. The import profit and loss was 655.7 yuan/ton, an increase of 650.4 yuan/ton from last week [51][52]. - **Inventory**: The LME total inventory decreased by 525 tons from last week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 24,901 tons from last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,485 tons from last week. The total social inventory was 148,100 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons from last week [55]. 3.3.3 Downstream and Applications - **Copper Products**: In July 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.1694 million tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons from June, a decline of 2.04%; the import volume was 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from June, an increase of 4.35%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.09% [59]. - **Power Grid and Appliance**: As of July 2025, the cumulative investment in power and grid construction increased by 3.4% and 12.5% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 2.4%, 1.5%, 5%, 2.9%, and - 6.5% year - on - year respectively [65]. - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of July 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month increase of 14.84%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 294.6 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and a month - on - month increase of 23.02% [72]. 3.4 Overall Situation - According to ICSG statistics, as of June 2025, the global refined copper supply was in excess, with a monthly surplus of 36 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance as of June 2025 was a surplus of 46,500 tons [77]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The silicon-manganese market is expected to oscillate between 5800 and 6000. The macro environment has policy information disturbances, causing the market to fluctuate between long and short positions. The strengthening of coal supports the rebound of alloys [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Summary - **Macro**: China's electricity consumption accounts for 30% of terminal energy consumption, higher than the world average, and is expected to exceed 40% by 2035. Baosteel identified long products and thick plates as new strategic core products. The personal mortgage loan balance of six major state-owned banks decreased by 107.8 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year, showing a three - year downward trend [6]. - **Overseas**: The US postponed trade threats against China and considered sanctions on Russia. Trump signed a US - Japan trade executive order, imposing up to 15% tariffs on most Japanese products. Many Asian and Middle Eastern investment institutions are avoiding US assets due to concerns about Trump's policies [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Since mid - May, production has been on the rise. After the price rebound, inventory has decreased for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 3200 tons. Downstream hot metal production dropped significantly due to military parade production control. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 110 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 410 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement tender price in August increased by 150 yuan/ton month - on - month [6]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish weekly trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Considering the macro environment, the market is volatile. Coal strength supports alloy rebound. The silicon - manganese market is expected to oscillate between 5800 and 6000 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 5, the open interest of silicon - manganese futures contracts was 570,700 lots, an increase of 24,573 lots. The spread between the May - 1st contracts of silicon - manganese decreased by 4 points. The number of silicon - manganese warehouse receipts decreased by 3707 to 62,860, and the spread between the January contracts of silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon increased by 32 points to 290 [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 5, the spot price of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 244 yuan/ton, a decrease of 172 points [23]. 3. Industrial Chain - **Production**: According to Mysteel, the national capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 46.45%, a decrease of 0.55%. The daily average output was 30,405 tons, a decrease of 80 tons. The weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel types decreased by 2.36% to 123,668 tons, and the national weekly supply decreased by 0.26% to 212,835 tons. Production has generally been rising since mid - May, with a slight decline this period [26]. - **Inventory**: As of September 4, the total inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of national capacity) was 160,500 tons, an increase of 11,500 tons. Inventory in Inner Mongolia decreased by 2000 tons, while that in Ningxia increased by 11,000 tons, etc. [31]. - **Upstream**: As of September 5, the price of South32 South African semi - carbonate lump at Tianjin Port was 33.8 yuan/ton - degree, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/ton - degree. As of September 1, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 32,000 tons to 4.414 million tons. The arrival of South African manganese ore increased by 35% to 506,900 tons, while that from Australia decreased by 87.4% to 20,900 tons, etc. On September 5, the spot production cost in the northern region decreased by 10 to 5830 yuan/ton, and the profit was - 205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; in the southern region, the cost decreased by 10 to 6240 yuan/ton, and the profit was - 580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [33][41][44]. - **Downstream**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.2884 million tons, a decrease of 112,900 tons week - on - week but an increase of 62,300 tons year - on - year. The silicon - manganese tender price of HBIS in August was 6000 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to July [48].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Silicon Ferrosilicon Market Weekly Report: Cost Increase, Loss Expansion, Short - term Price Support" [2] - Date: September 5, 2025 - Researcher: Xu Yuhua 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The cost of silicon ferrosilicon has increased and losses have expanded, providing short - term support for prices. The macro - environment has information disturbances from anti - involution policies, causing the futures market to fluctuate between long and short positions. The strengthening of coal prices supports the rebound of alloys. The silicon ferrosilicon main contract is expected to oscillate between 5540 - 5750 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Macro Aspect**: China's electricity consumption accounts for 30% of terminal energy consumption, expected to rise to over 40% by 2035. Baosteel will focus on long products and thick plates. The personal mortgage loan balance of six major state - owned banks has decreased by 107.8 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year [7]. - **Overseas Aspect**: The US has postponed trade threats against China and is considering sanctions on Russia. Trump signed a US - Japan trade executive order, imposing up to 15% tariffs on most Japanese products. Some Asian and Middle - Eastern investment institutions are avoiding US assets [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: After the previous profit improvement, production has quickly recovered. Most manufacturers hedged earlier, and inventory is at a neutral level. The cost of blue charcoal and electricity has risen, while the overall demand for steel remains weak. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 315 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 390 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the silicon ferrosilicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Treat the silicon ferrosilicon main contract as oscillating between 5540 - 5750 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 5, the silicon ferrosilicon futures contract open interest was 451,600 lots, an increase of 39,388 lots. The 5 - 1 contract month - spread was 110, a decrease of 34 points. The number of warehouse receipts was 18,309, a decrease of 1,524. The Ningxia silicon ferrosilicon price was 5,360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [9][11][15]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 5, the silicon ferrosilicon basis was - 358 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82 points [23]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Production and Demand**: This week (September 4), the national silicon ferrosilicon production capacity utilization rate was 36.34%, a decrease of 0.20%. The daily average production was 16,430 tons, an increase of 1.70%. The weekly demand for silicon ferrosilicon in five major steel types was 20,076.1 tons, a decrease of 2.42%. The national silicon ferrosilicon weekly supply was 115,000 tons [27]. - **Inventory**: As of September 4, the national silicon ferrosilicon inventory was 66,560 tons, an increase of 5.80%. Inner Mongolia's inventory increased by 4,000 tons, while Ningxia's decreased by 200 tons [30]. - **Upstream**: As of September 1, the electricity price in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia for silicon ferrosilicon remained unchanged. As of September 4, the average price of blue charcoal in Ningxia remained unchanged. As of September 5, the spot production cost in Ningxia increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 350 yuan/ton. In Inner Mongolia, the cost remained unchanged, and the profit decreased by 130 yuan/ton [36][42]. - **Downstream**: This week, the daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills was 228,840 tons, a decrease of 112,900 tons. From January to July 2025, the total silicon ferrosilicon export volume was 236,000 tons, a decrease of 4.91% compared to the same period last year. The August silicon ferrosilicon tender price was 5,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to July [44][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment has subsided with frequent shifts between long and short positions. In the short - term, the futures price is mainly determined by the industry, with a game between coke producers and steelmakers. The futures price is expected to show a volatile trend. It is recommended to treat the main coke contract as a volatile operation [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: China's electricity accounts for 30% of terminal energy consumption, expected to rise above 40% by 2035. Baosteel identifies long products and thick plates as new strategic core products. The personal mortgage loan balance of six major state - owned banks is about 25 trillion yuan, shrinking by 107.8 billion yuan from the beginning of the year and declining for three consecutive years [8]. - **Overseas Aspect**: The US suspends trade threats against China and considers sanctions on Russia. Trump signs a US - Japan trade executive order, imposing up to 15% tariffs on most Japanese products. Many Asian and Middle - Eastern investment institutions avoid US assets due to concerns about Trump's policies [8]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The current iron - water output is 228,840 tons, a decrease of 11,290 tons. Affected by steel - mill production control during the military parade, iron - water output drops significantly. The coal - mine inventory has no pressure, and the total coking - coal inventory increases. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 64 yuan/ton [8]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the main coke contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish weekly trend [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 5, the contract position increased by 3,487 lots, and the coke monthly spread increased by 18.5 points. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 300 lots, and the rebar - coke ratio increased by 0.03 points [12][18]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 4, 2025, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 1,530 yuan/ton, and the coking - coal ex - factory price at the Ganqimaodu Port in Mongolia remained unchanged at 1,150 yuan/ton. As of September 5, the coke basis was - 51.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 91 points [26]. - **Production Data**: In July, the raw - coal output of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. From January to July, it was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. In July 2025, China's coking - coal output was 4.08938 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25,000 tons [28]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Coking Plant**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 64 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 72.61%, a decrease of 0.09%. The daily coke output is 51,210 tons, a decrease of 70 tons. Coke inventory is 40,710 tons, an increase of 900 tons. The total coking - coal inventory is 780,950 tons, a decrease of 38,920 tons. The available coking - coal days are 11.5 days, a decrease of 0.55 days [32]. - **Downstream**: The daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 228,840 tons, a decrease of 11,290 tons from last week and an increase of 62,300 tons from last year. As of August 29, 2025, the total coke inventory is 8.5415 million tons, a decrease of 13,100 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 12.88% [36]. - **Inventory Structure**: The port coke inventory decreased by 79,000 tons, and the steel - mill coke inventory increased by 136,400 tons. The daily coke output of 247 steel mills is 45,720 tons, a decrease of 370 tons. The capacity utilization rate is 84.31%, a decrease of 0.68%. The available coke days are 11.71 days, an increase of 0.93 days [40]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, China exported 890,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a year - on - year increase of 15.58%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 4.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.9%. In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4% [44]. - **Real Estate Data**: In July 2025, the second - hand housing price index of 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.50% month - on - month. As of the week ending August 31, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.8485 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 16.64% and a year - on - year increase of 6.42% [47]. - **City - Level Real Estate**: As of the week ending August 31, the commercial housing transaction area of first - tier cities was 531,500 square meters, a month - on - month increase of 31.96% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.14%. The transaction area of second - tier cities was 965,100 square meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.79% and a year - on - year increase of 17.68% [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of slight supply growth and stable demand. For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slight supply growth and gradually rising demand, with positive consumption expectations and a possible inventory inflection point. Cast aluminum alloy fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and gradually warming demand [4]. - It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading on dips for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum, and light - position range - bound trading for the main contract of alumina, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [75]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum showed a volatile trend, with a weekly change of - 0.22%, closing at 20,695 yuan/ton. Alumina trended weakly, with a weekly change of - 0.99%, closing at 3,006 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum's main contract trended weakly, with a weekly change of - 0.33%, closing at 20,280 yuan/ton [4][6]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Alumina**: The raw material supply is sufficient in the short term, and the supply is expected to increase slightly while demand remains stable [4]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The smelting profit is good, and the supply is expected to increase slightly while demand gradually recovers, with positive consumption expectations and a possible inventory inflection point [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply may slightly converge due to tight raw materials and high costs, and demand is gradually warming up [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: - As of September 5, 2025, Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,715 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from August 29; LME aluminum closed at 2,590 US dollars/ton on September 4, 2025, down 0.65% from August 29. The Shanghai - LME ratio was 7.96, up 0.12 from August 29 [9][10]. - As of September 5, 2025, the alumina futures price was 2,948 yuan/ton, down 1.93% from August 29; the cast aluminum alloy main contract closed at 20,280 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from August 29 [13]. - **Open Interest**: As of September 5, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum open interest was 534,489 lots, down 7.36% from August 29; the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 1,113 lots from August 29 [16]. - **Futures Spreads**: As of September 5, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,460 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from August 29; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 59,445 yuan/ton, up 775 yuan/ton from August 29 [21]. - **Spot Prices**: - As of September 5, 2025, the average alumina price in Henan was 3,120 yuan/ton, down 2.04% from August 29; in Shanxi, it was 3,175 yuan/ton, down 2.52% from August 29; in Guiyang, it was 3,175 yuan/ton, down 2.52% from August 29. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 20,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from August 29 [23][24]. - As of September 5, 2025, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 20,680 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from August 29; the spot was at par, up 30 yuan/ton from last week [30]. 3. Industry Conditions - **Inventory**: - As of September 4, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 479,600 tons, down 0.32% from August 28; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 125,596 tons on August 29, up 0.8% from last week; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 572,000 tons on September 4, up 0.88% from August 28 [34][35]. - As of September 5, 2025, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 59,961 tons, up 2.27% from August 29; the LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 468,750 tons on September 4, unchanged from August 28 [35]. - **Raw Materials**: - As of the latest data, the domestic nine - port bauxite inventory was 27.63 million tons, down 250,000 tons from the previous month. In July 2025, the bauxite imports were 20.063 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.75% and a year - on - year increase of 34.22%. From January to July, the bauxite imports were 123.2607 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.65% [38]. - As of this week's latest data, the price of crushed raw aluminum scrap in Shandong was 15,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week. In July 2025, the imports of aluminum scrap and fragments were 160,494.61 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.68%; the exports were 79.39 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.91% [44]. - **Production and Trade**: - In July 2025, the alumina output was 7.5649 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; from January to July, the cumulative output was 52.6721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. In July 2025, the alumina imports were 125,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.29% and a year - on - year increase of 78.23%; the exports were 230,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.33%. From January to July, the cumulative alumina imports were 394,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68.61% [46][47]. - In July 2025, the electrolytic aluminum imports were 248,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91.19%; from January to July, the cumulative imports were 1.4975 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. In July 2025, the electrolytic aluminum exports were 41,000 tons; from January to July, the cumulative exports were 126,900 tons [50]. - In July 2025, the electrolytic aluminum output was 378,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%; from January to July, the cumulative output was 2.638 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. In August 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum in - production capacity was 4.4379 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.34% and a year - on - year increase of 1.99%; the total capacity was 4.5232 million tons, unchanged from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 0.52%; the operating rate was 98.11%, up 0.33% from last month and down 1.41% from the same period last year [54]. - In July 2025, the aluminum product output was 5.4837 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%; from January to July, the cumulative output was 38.4699 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In July 2025, the aluminum product imports were 360,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.2%; the exports were 540,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6%. From January to July, the aluminum product imports were 2.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%; the exports were 3.46 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9% [58]. - In July 2025, the cast aluminum alloy monthly built - in capacity was 1.26 million tons, unchanged from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 19.25%. The cast aluminum alloy output was 623,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.69 and a year - on - year increase of 12.41% [61]. - In July 2025, the aluminum alloy output was 1.536 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%; from January to July, the cumulative output was 10.628 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. In July 2025, the aluminum alloy imports were 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.39%; the exports were 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3%. From January to July, the aluminum alloy imports were 611,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.83%; the exports were 145,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.77% [64]. - **Downstream Markets**: - In July 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.34, down 0.25 from last month and up 1.23 from the same period last year. From January to July 2024, the new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%; the housing completion area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21.19% [67]. - From January to July 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 7.29% year - on - year. In July 2025, the Chinese automobile sales volume was 2,593,410 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%; the automobile production was 2,591,084 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [70]. 4. Option Market Analysis - Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [75].