1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of both supply and demand weakness. Domestically, the supply is tightening due to restrictions on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports, but the demand is also weakening as the first shipment of Australian rapeseed may be crushed this month and the demand for aquaculture decreases with the temperature drop. Additionally, the domestic soybean auction news is negative for the domestic meal market, and the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal futures price has been fluctuating weakly recently, and attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and whether the China - Canada trade policy can make a breakthrough [2] - The rapeseed oil market continues to digest the negative news of the higher - than - expected Canadian rapeseed production and the arrival of Australian rapeseed. Although the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing due to supply restrictions, the sufficient supply of soybean oil with a good substitution advantage keeps the rapeseed oil demand at a rigid level. As a result, the futures price of rapeseed oil continues to decline [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9443 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2329 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; that of ICE rapeseed is 633.3 Canadian dollars/ton, up 19.4 Canadian dollars; and that of rapeseed is 5508 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Month - to - month spreads: The 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed oil is 290 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan; the 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed meal is 69 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [2] - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 90128 lots, down 18419 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 579248 lots, up 26385 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is - 19107 lots, down 4591 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 89134 lots, up 4358 lots [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 3490 sheets, down 231 sheets; that of rapeseed meal is 0 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9700 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2380 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; that of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of rapeseed oil is 9818.75 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 7708.91 yuan/ton, up 60.44 yuan; the spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8640 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3040 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 3.96, down 0.04; the basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 257 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 51 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1160 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1060 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 660 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. Canada's rapeseed production increased by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons [2] - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 0 tons, down 115300 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 140000 tons, down 20000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 220600 tons, up 62900 tons [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 0 tons, down 100 tons; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged; the imported rapeseed crushing profit is 449 yuan/ton, down 204 yuan [2] Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.8 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.02 million tons, up 0.01 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 33.9 million tons, down 1.6 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 19.36 million tons, down 1.9 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 0.7 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 23.4 million tons, down 0.9 million tons [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil pickup volume is 0 tons, unchanged; the weekly rapeseed meal pickup volume is 0.45 million tons, down 0.67 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 29.57 million tons, down 1.717 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 4276 thousand tons, down 67.4 thousand tons [2] - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 519.9 billion yuan, up 69.04 billion yuan [2] Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 16.94%, down 0.08%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 16.93%, down 0.09%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.59%, down 0.79%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 13.59%, down 0.79% [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 10.4%, down 0.49%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 11.71%, up 0.18%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 9.72%, down 1.98%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.96%, up 0.17% [2] Industry News - On December 9 (Tuesday), the ICE rapeseed futures rebounded, ending an eight - day losing streak. The January rapeseed futures contract closed 6.20 Canadian dollars higher at 619.90 Canadian dollars per ton, and the March contract rose 5.70 Canadian dollars to 631.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - US soybeans have entered the export season with sufficient supply in the short term, and the US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market. The market is also concerned about China's soybean purchases from the US, and the price of US soybeans has fallen from recent highs [2] - The MPOB report shows that the Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of November increased by 13.04% to 2.84 million tons compared with the previous month, higher than the market forecast of 2.66 million tons. The export of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days is still declining, and the export is still weak, which drags down the price of Malaysian palm oil [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the decline of glass prices is expected to slow down, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level of 1030 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash continues to decline, breaking through the previous low - level support, and subsequent attention should be paid to the integer support level of 1000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the forward policy expectations have positive signals, and the "Three Major Projects" fund allocation is accelerating, which is expected to support the demand for infrastructure glass in Q1 2026 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the soda ash main contract is 1094 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; the closing price of the glass main contract is 964 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The soda ash - glass price difference is 130 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The positions of the soda ash and glass main contracts decreased by 79,430 hands and 54,739 hands respectively. The net positions of the top 20 soda ash decreased by 3,031, while that of glass increased by 5,254. The exchange warehouse receipts of soda ash decreased by 724 tons, and those of glass increased by 303 tons. The basis of soda ash increased by 31 yuan/ton, and that of glass increased by 16 yuan/ton. The spread between the January and May glass contracts decreased by 6, and that of soda ash decreased by 3 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of North China heavy - soda ash and Central China heavy - soda ash remained unchanged at 1120 yuan/ton and 1300 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of East China light - soda ash and Central China light - soda ash were stable at 1400 yuan/ton and 1165 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Shahe glass sheets decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 968 yuan/ton, and the price of Central China glass sheets remained at 1110 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of soda ash plants increased by 0.66 percentage points to 80.74%, and the weekly operating rate of float glass enterprises decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 73.63%. The weekly in - production capacity of glass decreased by 0.28 million tons/year to 15.44 million tons/year, and the number of in - production glass production lines decreased by 2 to 218. The weekly inventory of soda ash enterprises decreased by 3.61 million tons to 150.25 million tons, and the weekly inventory of glass enterprises decreased by 2.92 million heavy boxes to 59.442 million heavy boxes [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of newly - started real estate area was 49,061.39 million square meters, an increase of 3,662.39 million square meters, and the cumulative value of real - estate completion area was 34,861 million square meters, an increase of 3,732 million square meters [2] 3.5 Industry News - Some soda ash plants had production adjustments, such as Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical reducing production, Henan Zhongyuan Chemical maintaining stable production, Hubei Shuanghuan keeping stable output, Henan Haohua Junhua starting operation, Tangshan Sanyou reducing production to 70% load, Shandong Haitian Biological Chemical resuming production, Shandong Haihua reducing load, Zhongyan Anhui Hongsifang resuming load, Henan Jinshan reducing production for maintenance, and Chongqing Xiangyu Yanhua resuming production. For glass, the supply contraction trend will be more obvious next week, and the average daily melting volume in Q1 2026 is expected to drop to around 155,000 tons. The regional supply shows a pattern of "local contraction, overall looseness" [2] 3.6 View Summary - The demand side is the core factor suppressing the current market. In the short - term, the decline in construction site start - up rates in the north, limited demand pull from the automotive industry and the export market, and weak terminal receiving willingness have a negative impact on the market. However, forward policy expectations are positive, and the "Three Major Projects" are expected to support infrastructure glass demand in Q1 2026 [2] 3.7 Prompt Attention - This week, the operating rate of soda ash plants declined. Although some plants such as Zhongyan Kunshan increased production and some completed maintenance, many other plants continued maintenance or reduced load. There is no large - scale maintenance plan for subsequent soda ash plants for now, and the supply is expected to increase next week. The demand from the glass industry, the largest downstream of soda ash, has decreased. If the cold - repair of glass production lines is implemented, the demand for heavy - soda ash will further decrease. Although the inventory of glass manufacturers has decreased to a low level, the short - term driving effect on soda ash demand is limited and there are downward risks [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai nickel will experience short - term shock adjustments and suggests paying attention to the MA30 pressure. The US "small non - farm" ADP has recovered, and the Fed has "ample room" to cut interest rates. In terms of fundamentals, the import volume of nickel ore is in a downward trend, but the potential variables of Indonesia's RKAB approval and possible export policy changes have limited actual impact on supply in the near term. The supply of the pure nickel market is under great pressure, while the demand side shows positive trends, and both domestic and overseas nickel inventories are increasing [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel was 117,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan; the 01 - 02 contract spread was - 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan; the LME 3 - month nickel price was 14,750 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 135 US dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai nickel was 102,583 lots, a decrease of 5,403 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 21,430 lots, an increase of 4,631 lots. The LME nickel inventory was 252,528 tons, a decrease of 816 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 42,508 tons, an increase of 1,726 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants were 9,054 tons, a decrease of 882 tons; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel was 34,235 tons, a decrease of 126 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price was 119,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,200 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous was 119,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,400 yuan; the CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price was 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 27,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract was 2,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 940 yuan; the LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium was - 190.46 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.9 US dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 468.28 million tons, a decrease of 143.17 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore was 1,469.71 million tons, a decrease of 17.62 million tons; the average monthly import unit price of nickel ore was 57.33 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.61 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 US dollars/wet - ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel was 2.29 million metal tons, an increase of 0.12 million metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel was 90.51 million tons, a decrease of 18.02 million tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was 180 million tons, an increase of 3.73 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 58.53 million tons, a decrease of 1.23 million tons [3]. Industry News - The US "small non - farm" ADP has recovered, with an average weekly increase of 4,750 private - sector jobs, ending four consecutive weeks of job losses. The Fed's employment - related indicators, such as the JOLTS job openings in October, have risen to a five - month high, but recruitment has decreased and lay - offs have reached a two - year high. The Bank of Japan governor hinted at future interest rate hikes. Trump mentioned the Fed chair selection and possible tariff adjustments. Hasset said the Fed has "ample room" to cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points [3]. Viewpoint Summary - In the macro - aspect, the US economic data shows certain trends. In the fundamental aspect, the import of nickel ore from the Philippines has decreased due to the rainy season. The supply of the pure nickel market is under pressure, with high production in Indonesia and new domestic and Indonesian refined nickel projects being put into operation. On the demand side, the profit of stainless - steel mills has improved, and the production of new - energy vehicles has increased, bringing positive demand. Both domestic and overseas nickel inventories are increasing, and the market is mainly purchasing on demand with rising spot premiums. Technically, the position is stable while the price is adjusting, and there are differences between long and short positions [3]. Key Focus - There is no news today [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Suggest light - position short - term long trading at low prices and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 95,980 yuan/ton, up 3,180 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 183,582 lots, down 781 lots; the position of the main contract was 605,453 lots, up 30,032 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts was - 760 yuan/ton, down 2,100 yuan; the warehouse receipt of GZEX was 13,680 lots/ton, up 760 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 90,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 3,280 yuan/ton, down 3,230 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 1,170 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite was 10,025 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 3,894 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 53,980 tons, up 2,450 tons; the monthly import volume was 23,880.69 tons, up 4,283.79 tons; the monthly export volume was 245.91 tons, up 95.10 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries was 170,600 MWh, up 19,400 MWh [2] Downstream and Application - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China was 157,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 39,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,772,000 vehicles, up 155,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume was 1,715,000 vehicles, up 111,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 46.75%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sales volume was 12,943,000 vehicles, up 3,193,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume was 256,000 vehicles, up 34,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume was 2,014,000 vehicles, up 956,000 vehicles [2] Option Situation - The total call position was 114,079 lots, up 6,315 lots; the total put position was 77,882 lots, up 3,650 lots; the put - call ratio of total positions was 68.27%, down 0.6136%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.31%, down 0.0202% [2] Industry News - Qinghai Province plans to build a world - class modern salt - lake industrial system and develop a salt - lake resource industry worth hundreds of billions [2] - In November, the CPI decreased 0.1% month - on - month and increased 0.7% year - on - year; the PPI increased 0.1% month - on - month and decreased 2.2% year - on - year [2] - In 2025, global trade volume will increase by about 7% (an increase of 2.2 trillion US dollars) to a record of 35 trillion US dollars [2] - During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the retail industry should focus on quality and service - driven development [2] Market Analysis - The main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuated strongly, up 2.56% at the close. The position increased, the spot was at a discount to the futures, and the basis weakened [2] - On the fundamentals, the price of lithium ore weakened slightly. The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase, and the demand has become more active [2] - In the option market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility decreased slightly [2] - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double lines near the 0 - axis and the red bars are expanding [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading, control the rhythm and trading risks. The supply is in a relatively large state, and demand has some resilience [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, light - position oscillatory trading is also advised, paying attention to rhythm and risks. Supply has an incremental expectation, and demand is transitioning from peak to off - season with some support from end - of - year impulses [2]. - For cast aluminum alloys, light - position oscillatory trading is suggested. Supply is restricted, and demand is in a slight decline with inventory accumulation [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 21,935 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the main - to - second - consecutive contract spread is - 130 yuan, down 40 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 185,806 lots, down 9,920 lots [2]. - The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,477 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan; the main - to - second - consecutive contract spread is - 51 yuan, down 14 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 278,854 lots, down 3,226 lots [2]. - LME aluminum's three - month quotation is 2,845.5 dollars/ton, down 41 dollars; LME aluminum inventory is 523,300 tons, down 2,500 tons [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,930 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the main - to - second - consecutive contract spread is - 75 yuan, down 15 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 17,403 lots, up 84 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network A00 aluminum is 21,770 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of alumina spot in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,740 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots is 21,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum is 21,860 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 570 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 165 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 90 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is - 32.36 dollars/ton, down 0.22 dollars [2]. - The basis of alumina is 263 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina production is 786.5 million tons, down 13.40 million tons; the national alumina start - up rate is 84.37%, down 0.92%; the utilization rate of alumina production capacity is 86.51%, down 0.45% [2]. - The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part is 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 37.98 million tons, down 8.87 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 17,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average price in Shandong metal scrap is 16,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - China's import volume of aluminum scrap is 158,360.01 tons, up 2,945.61 tons; the export volume is 32.46 tons, down 36.08 tons [2]. - The export volume of alumina is 18 million tons, down 7 million tons; the import volume is 18.93 million tons, up 12.93 million tons [2]. - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is - 19.21 million tons, down 8.67 million tons; the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is 54.60 million tons, up 0.40 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 248,261.37 tons, up 4,462 tons; the export volume is 24,573.56 tons, down 4,396.36 tons [2]. - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,524.20 million tons, up 1 million tons; the start - up rate is 98.21%, down 0.03% [2]. - The production of aluminum products is 569.40 million tons, down 20.60 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 57 million tons, up 7 million tons [2]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 3.09 million tons, up 0.74 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126 million tons, unchanged; the National Real Estate Prosperity Index is 92.43, down 0.34 [2]. - The production of aluminum alloy is 168.20 million tons, unchanged; the automobile production is 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 13.61%, down 0.21%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 11.72%, up 0.10% [2]. - The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money is 10.06%, down 0.0347%; the call - to - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.60, down 0.0950 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, the retail industry should focus on high - quality development [2]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the third time, with market expectations of a 25 - basis - point cut [2]. - China's economy is expected to maintain a stable and positive trend, and the economic aggregate will reach a new level [2]. - In November, the CPI decreased 0.1% month - on - month and increased 0.7% year - on - year; the PPI increased 0.1% month - on - month and decreased 2.2% year - on - year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall price of industrial silicon continued to decline due to supply factors today, and attention should be paid to the support level of 8,000 yuan/ton [2]. - From the supply side, in Southwest China, the dry season in Yunnan and Sichuan has led to a significant increase in electricity prices, high production costs, and a sharp decline in the operating rate. In Northwest China, production maintains a high - operating state, offsetting the output contraction in the Southwest. However, it is necessary to focus on whether there are fluctuations in the operating rate in the Northwest next week [2]. - From the demand side, the actual demand for industrial silicon from polysilicon, organic silicon, and exports is insufficient, and only the demand from the aluminum alloy field is relatively stable, but it is difficult to change the overall weak demand pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan; the position of the main contract was 171,757 lots, a decrease of 13,514 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 29,059 lots, an increase of 91 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 7,780 lots, an increase of 252 lots; the price difference between the January - February contracts was - 10 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 950 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan; the spot price of DMC was 13,625 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 2,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 451,660 tons, an increase of 48,860 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 22.28 tons, a decrease of 1,917.57 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 45,073.34 tons, a decrease of 25,159.39 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 21,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.5 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 16.05 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 30,923.01 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 74.84%, unchanged; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.682 million tons, a decrease of 94,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 30,923.01 tons, an increase of 7,427.67 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Beijing Economic - Technological Development Area Management Committee issued the "Several Measures for Promoting High - Quality Green and Low - Carbon Development (Version 2.0)", which mentioned promoting the large - scale development of distributed photovoltaics, with the proportion of photovoltaic installation on factory roofs in new industrial plant projects not less than 50% [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) 605 | 55915 | 305 1月-2月合约收盘价价差 | 185 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) 47665 | 54959 | -13915 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 395 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) -3615 | 52300 | 0 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | -305 | | | 平均价:N型硅片:210R(日,元/片) 6.5 | 1.18 | 0 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 0 | | 上游情况 | 主力合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) 45073.34 | 8250 | -90 出口数量工业硅(月,吨) | -25159.39 | | | 品种现货价:工业硅(日,元/吨) 22.28 | 9200 | 0 进口数量:工业硅(月,吨) | -1917.57 | | | 工业硅:产量(月,吨) 55.2 | 451660 | 48 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The butadiene rubber market this week is mainly affected by news factors of natural rubber and butadiene. With no clear positive factors in the supply - demand fundamentals, the continuous price - pressing by downstream buyers leads to weak trading performance. The inventory of sample production enterprises increases, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreases slightly. With the gradual resumption of the operation of previously - shut - down enterprises to the normal level, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased last week, but the shipment pace of each tire enterprise is slow. In the short term, the production - control behavior of enterprises still exists, and the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited. The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,300 - 10,800 in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,605 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 155 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 80,546, with a week - on - week increase of 4,137; the 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber is 4,340 tons, with no week - on - week change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 (Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 10,450 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 10,550 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 10,750 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the basis of synthetic rubber is - 105 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 155 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at $61.94 per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of $0.55; WTI crude oil is at $58.25 per barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is $563 per ton, with a week - on - week decrease of $8.5; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is $745 per ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is $860 per ton; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 7,250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the weekly production capacity of butadiene is 159,400 tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 70.4%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.57 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 41,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 56.11%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.12 percentage points [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 130,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 73.53%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.34 percentage points; the production profit of butadiene rubber is 484 yuan/ton; the social inventory of butadiene rubber is 32,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons; the manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber is 27,100 tons; the trader inventory of butadiene rubber is 5,230 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 310 tons; the operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 70.92%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.73 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic full - steel tires is 63.5%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.17 percentage points; the monthly output of full - steel tires is 1.301 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.831 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 663,000 pieces; the inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 39.51 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 44.95 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a week - on - week increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points. The resumption of production of previously - shut - down sample enterprises during the week boosted the overall capacity utilization rate. In November, the domestic output of butadiene rubber was 130,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber in November was 68.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.53 percentage points. As of December 4, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber was 32,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%. Some tight - supply spot resources were replenished this period. However, due to the continuous price - pressing by downstream buyers, the trading performance was weak. The inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises increased last week, and the inventory of trading enterprises decreased slightly. The temporary shutdown and maintenance of some Shandong plants will lead to a slight reduction in supply, and there is an expectation that the inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises and trading enterprises will both decrease slightly [2] 3.6 Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term industrial compound fertilizer has high operation rate and continuous demand. There are still some reserve gaps, and the urea factory inventory may still show a slight downward trend. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1630 - 1680 in the short term [2]. - The reserve demand has temporarily stopped to wait and see due to the too - fast increase in urea prices. The compound fertilizer operation rate has increased month - on - month, and the short - term compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate is expected to show a narrow increase. With the implementation of a new batch of quotas, export demand gradually increases [2]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 1645 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 68 yuan/ton, up 0.644 yuan; the position volume is 142,791 lots, down 7,855 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 5,324; the exchange warehouse receipt is 11,228 sheets, down 249 sheets [2]. Spot Market - The prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui are 1720 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), 1680 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), 1680 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), and 1680 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) respectively; the price in Shandong is 1700 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The main contract basis is 55 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2]. - FOB Baltic is 352.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB China's main port is 391.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The port inventory is 10.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 129.05 million tons, down 7.34 million tons [2]. - The urea enterprise operation rate is 81.83%, down 1.88%; the daily urea output is 197,900 tons, down 4,500 tons [2]. - The urea export volume is 1.2 billion tons, down 17%; the monthly output is 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operation rate is 40.53%, up 3.47%; the melamine operation rate is 61.66%, up 0.86% [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 56 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 29 yuan/ton, down 129 yuan [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.3825 billion tons, up 753.8 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32,100 tons, up 600 tons [2]. Industry News - As of December 10, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.2342 billion tons, down 563,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.36% [2]. - As of December 4, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 10.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5%. There are expectations of continuous container collection for exports, but due to restrictions such as the flow of goods and factory inspections, the current container collection rhythm is still slow, and the arrival volume at most ports has not been concentrated [2]. - As of December 4, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 1.3851 billion tons, down 319,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%; the capacity utilization rate is 81.83%, down 1.88% from the previous period, and the trend continues to decline [2]. Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operation rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - A-share market is expected to maintain short-term strength driven by inflation recovery and optimism from the Politburo meeting, but if the Fed's post-meeting statement is hawkish, A-shares may face capital outflow pressure [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - IF主力合约（2512）最新4574.2，环比-6.8；IC主力合约（2512）最新7122.2，环比+28.0；IH主力合约（2512）最新2980.8，环比-10.4；IM主力合约（2512）最新7371.4，环比+19.4 [2] - IF-IH当月合约价差1593.4，环比+1.8；IC-IF当月合约价差2548.0，环比+36.8 [2] - IF当季-当月-40.0，环比-0.6；IH当季-当月-10.2，环比-0.4；IC当季-当月-178.2，环比-2.0；IM当季-当月-248.4，环比-12.2 [2] Futures Position - IF前20名净持仓-22,704.00，环比-413.0；IH前20名净持仓-12,252.00，环比-254.0；IC前20名净持仓-22,078.00，环比-676.0；IM前20名净持仓-36,011.00，环比+804.0 [2] Spot Price - 沪深300最新4591.83，环比-6.4；上证50最新2,988.6，环比-9.3；中证500最新7,156.0，环比+34.7；中证1000最新7,408.2，环比+27.7 [2] - IF主力合约基差-17.6，环比-2.6；IH主力合约基差-7.8，环比-1.5；IC主力合约基差-33.8，环比-6.9；IM主力合约基差-36.8，环比-4.1 [2] Market Sentiment - A股成交额（日，亿元）17,916.34，环比-1260.55；两融余额（前一交易日，亿元）25,105.72，环比+100.58 [2] - 北向成交合计（前一交易日，亿元）2196.00，环比-29.69；逆回购（到期量，操作量，亿元）-793.0，环比+1898.0 [2] - 主力资金（昨日，今日，亿元）-617.91，环比-335.68；上涨股票比例（日，%）44.63，环比+20.69 [2] - IO平值看涨期权收盘价（2512）28.40，环比-4.80；IO平值看涨期权隐含波动率（%）12.85，环比+1.01 [2] - IO平值看跌期权收盘价（2512）53.60，环比+7.40；IO平值看跌期权隐含波动率（%）12.72，环比+0.88 [2] - 沪深300指数20日波动率（%）14.34，环比+0.00；成交量PCR（%）59.45，环比-4.85；持仓量PCR（%）77.65，环比-1.72 [2] Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - 全部A股5.20，环比+1.90；技术面4.50，环比+2.20；资金面5.90，环比+1.60 [2] Industry News - The Politburo meeting on December 8 set the tone for the 2026 economic work, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and implementing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [2] - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 41.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [2] - In November, the CPI decreased 0.1% month-on-month and increased 0.7% year-on-year, while the PPI increased 0.1% month-on-month and decreased 2.2% year-on-year [2] Key Events to Watch - China's November financial data to be released; Fed interest rate decision on December 11 at 3:00; Swiss National Bank interest rate decision on December 11 at 16:30; US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 6 on December 11 at 21:30 [3]