Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On August 4, the silicon iron 2509 contract closed at 5674, down 0.56%. On the spot side, the spot price of silicon iron in Ningxia was reported at 5500, down 50 yuan/ton. The macro - side saw Trump 2.0 make a military threat against Russia. With low - level operation of the start - up rate, the price of semi - coke in Ningxia on the cost side decreased, and the overall expectation of steel demand remained weak. The production profit of ferroalloys was negative, with the spot profit in Inner Mongolia at 180 yuan/ton and in Ningxia at 330 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as an oscillating operation [2] - On August 4, the manganese - silicon 2509 contract closed at 5972, down 0.03%. On the spot side, the spot price of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia was reported at 5780, down 20 yuan/ton. Officially, it was announced that starting from August 8, the value - added tax on the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds would be restored. Fundamentally, the factory start - up rate rebounded, the inventory was moderately high. On the cost side, the port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 110,000 tons this period, and the downstream hot metal output was high. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 120 yuan/ton and in Ningxia was - 30 yuan/ton. In the market, the procurement price of steel mills this month rebounded compared with the tender price. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as an oscillating operation [2] Group 3: Summary by Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the SM main contract was 5972 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the SF main contract was 5674 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The SM futures contract positions were 604,837 hands, up 17,425 hands; the SF futures contract positions were 410,505 hands, up 10,430 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in manganese - silicon were - 89,799 hands, up 4,687 hands; the net positions of the top 20 in silicon iron were - 36,866 hands, up 1,153 hands. The SM 1 - 9 month contract spread was 86 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the SF 1 - 9 month contract spread was 142 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The SM warehouse receipts were 77,611, down 243; the SF warehouse receipts were 21,930, down 112 [2] Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,820 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of Inner Mongolia silicon iron FeSi75 - B was 5,760 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The price of Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qinghai silicon iron FeSi75 - B was 5,460 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The price of Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Ningxia silicon iron FeSi75 - B was 5,710 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan. The average value of the manganese - silicon index was 5,837 yuan/ton, up 149 yuan; the basis of the SF main contract was 36 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan; the basis of the SM main contract was - 152 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 lump at Tianjin Port was 34 yuan/ton - degree, down 3 yuan; the price of silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged. The manganese ore port inventory was 4.385 million tons, down 110,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The manganese - silicon enterprise start - up rate was 42.18%, up 0.60%; the silicon iron enterprise start - up rate was 33.76%, up 0.43%. The manganese - silicon supply was 190,820 tons, up 4,340 tons; the silicon iron supply was 104,400 tons, up 2,100 tons. The manganese - silicon factory inventory was 164,000 tons, down 41,000 tons; the silicon iron factory inventory was 65,500 tons, up 3,400 tons. The national steel mill inventory of manganese - silicon was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days; the national steel mill inventory of silicon iron was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days [2] Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese - silicon from the five major steel types was 123,715 tons, up 45 tons; the demand for silicon iron from the five major steel types was 19,922 tons, down 143.7 tons. The blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.22%, down 0.56%. The crude steel output was 8.3184 million tons, down 336,100 tons [2] Industry News - On August 1, Wang Renfei, Director of the Comprehensive Department of System Reform of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the government would regulate the disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations, promote the governance of production capacity in key industries, standardize bidding and tendering, strengthen the fairness review of bid - winning results, standardize local investment promotion behaviors, strengthen the disclosure of investment promotion information, and carry out the cleanup and rectification of market access barriers [2] - On August 1, Jiang Yi, Director of the Policy Research Office and Spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission, revealed at a press conference that the list of 800 billion yuan of "two major" construction projects this year had been fully issued, and 735 billion yuan of central budget - internal investment had been basically issued [2] - Trump 2.0 made a military threat against Russia for the first time, saying that he ordered the deployment of two US nuclear - powered submarines to the relevant area [2] - The long - term "price war" will eventually become a money - burning game, eroding the innovation and development space of enterprises. The market needs innovation, quality, and efficiency rather than just low prices. As the Chinese economy moves towards high - quality development, the transformation from "trading price for volume" to "quality improvement" has become an inevitable path for various industries [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - On August 4th, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1141.0, up 2.33%. With several macro - events settled, market sentiment weakened. Fundamentally, mine - end inventory decreased overall, clean coal inventory shifted downstream, import cumulative growth declined for 3 consecutive months, and total inventory increased for 4 consecutive weeks. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On August 4th, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1615.5, down 0.15%. The fifth round of price increase was postponed. With no obvious incremental policy expectations and the impact of position limits, the market became cautious about high prices. Fundamentally, raw - material inventory rebounded, iron - water production decreased, and coking coal total inventory increased for 4 consecutive weeks. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 45 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main - contract closing price was 1141.00 yuan/ton, up 48.50; J main - contract closing price was 1615.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00. JM futures - contract holding volume was 796849.00 lots, up 32505.00; J futures - contract holding volume was 50354.00 lots, down 1172.00. The net holding volume of the top 20 coking - coal contracts was - 99841.00 lots, up 6368.00; that of coke was - 7199.00 lots, down 318.00. JM1 - 9 month contract spread was 135.50 yuan/ton, up 28.00; J1 - 9 month contract spread was 60.50 yuan/ton, up 21.50. Coking - coal warehouse receipts were 0.00; coke warehouse receipts were 760.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Dry Qimantage Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 880.00 yuan/ton; Russian main - coking coal forward spot was 143.50 US dollars/wet ton; Jingtang Port Australian imported main - coking coal was 1430.00 yuan/ton; Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced main - coking coal was 1680.00 yuan/ton; Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur main - coking coal was 1400.00 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking - coal ex - factory price was 1100.00 yuan/ton. Tangshan quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1610.00 yuan/ton; Rizhao Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1420.00 yuan/ton; Tianjin Port first - class metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton; Tianjin Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1420.00 yuan/ton. JM main - contract basis was 259.00 yuan/ton, down 48.50; J main - contract basis was - 5.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The raw - coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants was 277.10 million tons, down 15.43; the clean - coal inventory was 166.39 million tons, down 9.23. The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants was 61.51%, down 0.80. Raw - coal production was 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00. Coal and lignite imports were 3304.00 million tons, down 300.00. The daily average raw - coal output of 523 coking - coal mines was 193.60, down 1.20. The imported coking - coal inventory of 16 ports was 493.94 million tons, down 18.10; the coke inventory of 18 ports was 270.90 million tons, up 20.57 [2]. 3.4 National Industrial Situation - The total coking - coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 992.73 million tons, up 7.35; the total inventory of 247 steel mills was 803.79 million tons, up 4.28. The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises were 12.87 days, up 0.12; for 247 steel mills, the available days of coke were 11.17 days, down 0.28. Coking - coal imports were 910.84 million tons, up 172.10; coke and semi - coke exports were 51.00 million tons, down 17.00. Coking - coal production was 4064.38 million tons, down 5.89. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.69%, up 0.24. The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 54.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00. Coke production was 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 [2]. 3.5 National Downstream Situation - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, down 0.56. Crude - steel production was 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On August 1st, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that 6.9 billion yuan of consumer goods trade - in funds would be issued in October, completing the 30 - billion - yuan annual plan. It also planned to regulate enterprise disorderly competition, manage key - industry production capacity, and clean up market - access barriers. The 80 - billion - yuan "two - important" construction project list had been fully issued, and 73.5 billion yuan of central budgetary investment had been basically issued. Trump 2.0 threatened Russia militarily and deployed two US nuclear submarines [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Monday, the RB2510 contract rebounded after hitting a low. The central bank plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, reducing the reserve - requirement ratio and using various monetary policy tools flexibly to maintain ample liquidity. The weekly output of rebar decreased slightly this period, with a low capacity utilization rate of 46.27%. Terminal demand was weak, apparent demand declined, and inventory increased. The market may fluctuate widely in a range, and technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows DIFF and DEA running below the 0 axis. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,204.00 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; RB main contract position: 1,742,635 lots, down 18,068 lots; RB contract top 20 net position: - 97,529 lots, down 12,574 lots; RB10 - 1 contract spread: - 67 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; RB SHFE warehouse receipt: 82,640 tons, down 2,394 tons; HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 213 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,370.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (actual weight): 3,456 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,400.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,280.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; RB main contract basis: 166.00 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 100.00 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 768.00 yuan/wet ton, down 2 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,365.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Q235 billet: 3,050.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; 45 - port iron ore inventory: 136.579 million tons, down 1.3248 million tons; Sample coke - plant coke inventory: 462,800 tons, down 35,200 tons; Sample steel - mill coke inventory: 6.2678 million tons, down 132,200 tons; Tangshan billet inventory: 1.1102 million tons, up 41,000 tons; 247 steel - mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.48%, unchanged; 247 steel - mill blast furnace capacity utilization: 90.22%, down 0.56% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Sample steel - mill rebar output: 2.1106 million tons, down 9,000 tons; Sample steel - mill rebar capacity utilization: 46.27%, down 0.20%; Sample steel - mill rebar inventory: 1.6215 million tons, down 35,200 tons; 35 - city rebar social inventory: 3.8414 million tons, up 111,700 tons; Independent electric - arc furnace steel - mill operating rate: 69.79%, up 1.04%; Domestic crude steel output: 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons; Chinese rebar monthly output: 1.688 million tons, up 30,000 tons; Net steel export volume: 921,000 tons, down 89,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - National Real Estate Climate Index: 93.60, down 0.11; Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment: 2.80%, down 0.90%; Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment: - 11.20%, down 0.50%; Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment: 4.60%, down 1.00%; Cumulative floor area under construction: 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters; Cumulative new construction area: 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters; Commercial housing unsold area: 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. 4. Industry News - US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that the new round of tariffs imposed by US President Trump on multiple countries last week is "basically finalized" and will not be adjusted in current negotiations. - The US added 73,000 non - farm jobs in July, lower than the estimated 104,000 and the previous value of 147,000, the lowest in 9 months. After the release of the non - farm data, President Trump criticized Powell again and called for an interest - rate cut [2].

国内社会库存增长；海外LME库存有所下降，注销仓单回升。技术面，持仓回升价格下跌，空头氛围偏强 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 | | | 免责声明 沪镍产业日报 2025-08-04 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 ，关注MA60压力，预计短线震荡偏弱。操作上，建议暂时观望。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 120630 | 860 08-09月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -140 | 1 ...

苯乙烯产业日报 2025-08-04 工负荷下调，预计产量、产能利用率小幅下降。本周苯乙烯下游行业多提负运行，或带动苯乙烯消费提升 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 7291 313365 | -5 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, -4478 10月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 219741 -21290 7307 -22 | | | | | 手) | | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | | | | | | 264170 | -11498 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | -8031 6461 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 321396 | -10939 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) | 1195 0 | | 现货市场 | 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 市场价:苯乙烯:华南地区:主流价(日, ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The L2509 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with attention on the support around 7,200 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing as previously shut - down plants restarted, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in the medium - to - long term. Demand is weak, with the peak season for shed films postponed and limited support from packaging film orders. International oil prices are expected to be strong this week, but cost support is not enough to reverse the short - term weak trend of polyethylene futures [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract was 7,279 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan. The trading volume was 264,758 lots, up 44,222 lots, and the open interest was 300,262 lots, down 12,855 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 22,004 lots, up 316 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,284.35 yuan/ton, down 32.61 yuan, and in East China was 7,367.62 yuan/ton, down 17.86 yuan. The basis was 5.35 yuan, up 5.39 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 64.88 US dollars per barrel, down 0.66 US dollars, and the CFR mid - price in Japan was 603.88 US dollars per ton, down 7.12 US dollars. The mid - price of ethylene CFR in Southeast Asia was 831 US dollars per ton, unchanged, and in Northeast Asia was 821 US dollars per ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate was 81.09%, up 2.12 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene packaging film was 48.7%, up 0.63 percentage points, that of pipes was 28.67%, down 0.16 percentage points, and that of agricultural film was 12.63%, unchanged [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 12.42%, up 0.15 percentage points, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 13.36%, up 0.13 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options was 7.28%, down 0.91 percentage points [2] Industry News - From July 25th to 31st, China's polyethylene production was 635,500 tons, up 3.31% from the previous period. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products increased by 0.3%. As of July 30th, the inventory of polyethylene production enterprises was 432,800 tons, down 13.94%, and as of August 2nd, the social inventory was 575,700 tons, up 2.49% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On Monday, most futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined. The main contract EC2510 fell 0.72%, and the far - month contracts fell about 1%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index dropped 18.7 points from last week, a 0.8% decline. Trump's "reciprocal tariff" measures and China's counter - measures have intensified trade uncertainties. Although the US consumer end shows resilience, inflation has an upward risk. The demand expectation for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is weak, and the futures price fluctuates greatly. However, the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures price to rise in the short term. Investors are advised to be cautious and track relevant data [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price is 1421.800, down 10.3; EC second - main contract closing price is 1677.2, down 10.7. The EC2510 - EC2512 spread is - 255.40, up 13.00; the EC2510 - EC2602 spread is - 48.40, up 17.60. The EC contract basis is - 16.50, down. The futures holding position is 51053 hands, down 1323 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly) is 2297.86, down 18.70; SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly) is 1130.42, down 153.39. SCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) is 1550.74, down 41.85. Container ship capacity is 1227.97 (ten thousand TEUs), up 0.04. CCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) is 1232.29, down 29.06; CCFI (European Line) (weekly) is 1789.50, up 2.26. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) is 2018.00, down 15.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) is 1644.00, up 15.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships is 12235.00, down 128.00; the average charter price of Capesize ships is 27300.00, up 1386.00 [1] Industry News - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, support key areas, and promote the use of RMB in trade. Trump signed an executive order to impose 10% - 41% reciprocal tariffs on some countries, with the tariffs taking effect on August 7, 2025. Fed理事库格勒 will leave office on August 8, creating uncertainty about the Fed chair appointment [1] Key Data to Follow - August 5, 14:45: France's June industrial output monthly rate; August 5, 17:00: Eurozone's June PPI monthly rate; August 5, 20:30: US June trade balance (in billions of dollars) [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall Market Situation**: The overall situation of the rapeseed - related market is complex, with various factors influencing the prices of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal. The market is affected by international trade, weather conditions, supply - demand relationships, and related policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal market is under pressure due to high oil - mill operating rates, soybean meal inventory accumulation, expected decline in pig存栏, and policies for reducing soybean meal substitution. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand provide some support. The market is volatile and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil market is constrained by the off - season of consumption, high inventory in oil mills, and sufficient domestic vegetable oil supply. But the reduction in oil - mill operating rates and fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases ease the supply pressure. The market is in an overall volatile state with increased short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing prices of rapeseed oil (active contract) were 9542 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan), rapeseed meal (active contract) were 2678 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan), ICE rapeseed (active) were 682.9 Canadian dollars/ton (down 12.1 Canadian dollars), and rapeseed (active contract) were 5122 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan) [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The 9 - 1 month spread of rapeseed oil was 70 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal was 246 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan). The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were 24449 lots (up 6537 lots) and for rapeseed meal were 20192 lots (up 3504 lots) [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3487 (unchanged), and that of rapeseed meal was 1200 (unchanged) [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9600 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2600 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), and the import cost of rapeseed was 4855.38 yuan/ton (down 69.12 yuan). The oil - meal ratio was 3.64 (up 0.05) [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 76 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan), and that of the rapeseed meal main contract was - 78 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan) [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8420 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8820 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2920 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and the annual forecast production of rapeseed was 12378 thousand tons (unchanged). The total rapeseed import volume was 18.45 tons (down 15.1 tons), and the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 15 tons (up 4 tons) [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15 tons (down 5 tons), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 16.52% (up 1.59%) [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.65 tons (up 1.1 tons), rapeseed meal inventory was 2.7 tons (up 0.8 tons); the East China rapeseed oil inventory was 55.5 tons (down 0.77 tons), rapeseed meal inventory was 33.41 tons (down 1.72 tons); the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 5.7 tons (up 0.15 tons), and the South China rapeseed meal inventory was 26.1 tons (down 0.9 tons) [2]. - **提货量**: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 3.27 tons (up 0.36 tons), and the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 3.43 tons (up 1.11 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed was 2762.1 tons (up 98.1 tons), and the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 476.9 tons (up 41.8 tons) [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2]. Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.58% (down 2.02%), and that of put options was 22.57% (down 2.04%); for rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was 13.16% (down 2.15%) [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 19.06% (up 0.1%), and the 60 - day historical volatility was 17.35% (up 0.08%); for rapeseed oil, the 20 - day historical volatility was 11.5% (down 0.16%), and the 60 - day historical volatility was 12.39% (down 0.02%) [2]. Industry News - **Rapeseed Futures**: On Friday, ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed lower, with the benchmark contract down 1.9% to a two - week low due to heavy selling by speculative funds [2]. - **Soybean Conditions**: As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, and the previous week was 68%, and the same period last year was 67% [2]. Key Points to Watch - **Data**: The rapeseed oil - mill operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in each region reported by Myagric on Monday [2]. - **Trade Disputes**: The development of trade disputes between China and Canada, and between Canada and the United States [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the pressure of newly opened laying hens from previous replenishments is significant, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The continuous release of cold - storage eggs further exacerbates the supply pressure. The spot market price has been consistently lower than expected, rising from the previous low and then falling again recently. However, due to continuous high temperatures in many parts of the country, the egg - laying rate of laying hens in some areas has declined, alleviating the short - term market supply pressure. With the start of school - opening stockpiling and Mid - Autumn Festival procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. In the futures market, the near - month contracts have fallen significantly due to weak spot prices and high inventory, while the far - month contracts are relatively strong, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions in the far - month contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3360 yuan/500 kilograms, down 124 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 34911 lots, up 2099 lots. - The egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is - 260 yuan/500 kilograms, down 125 yuan; the futures trading volume of the active contract is 231979 lots, up 5939 lots. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 25 lots, up 3 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 2.99 yuan/jin, down 0.18 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is - 369 yuan/500 kilograms, down 58 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 111.91 (2015 = 100), up 1.02; the national culled laying hen index is 104.09 (2015 = 100), down 4.59. - The average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.85 yuan/chick, down 0.03 yuan; the national new - born chick index is 76.07 (2015 = 100), down 30.71. - The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.7 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan; the laying hen breeding profit is - 0.16 yuan/hen, down 0.1 yuan. - The average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 11.76 yuan/kg, up 0.48 yuan; the national culling age of laying hens is 501 days, down 5 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.33 yuan/kg, down 0.27 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.49 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan. - The average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.34 yuan/kg, up 0.18 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.04 days, unchanged; the weekly inventory in the production link is 0.91 days, down 0.04 days. - The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, down 110.81 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 8032 tons, up 146 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 5.91 yuan/kg, down 0.24 yuan from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.68 yuan/kg, down 0.33 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 7.00 yuan/kg, down 0.20 yuan; in Beijing, it is 6.08 yuan/kg, down 0.36 yuan [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: The international corn price is under continuous pressure due to the high output prospects in the US, where the corn excellent rate remains good and the weather is favorable for growth. In the domestic market, the corn supply has slightly increased due to the resumption of shipments by some traders in the Northeast and continuous auctions of imported corn. Meanwhile, downstream demand is weak, and the inventory of feed and deep - processing enterprises is relatively sufficient, leading to a generally weak corn futures price [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The supply pressure has significantly weakened as the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years due to continuous production losses. However, the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and it is the traditional off - season for downstream demand. The supply - demand situation remains loose. The corn starch futures price has been fluctuating at a low level recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Corn**: The futures closing price of the active contract is 2284 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 17885 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 152541 hands, down 500 hands; the main contract CS - C spread is 380 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures closing price of the active contract is 2664 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 14811 hands, up 3275 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 hands [2]. 3.2 Outer - disk Market - The futures closing price of CBOT corn is 411 cents/bushel, down 2.75 cents; the total position is 1575283 contracts, up 81613 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 133467 contracts, up 416 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Corn**: The average spot price is 2401.37 yuan/ton, down 1.38 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2340 yuan/ton; the CIF price of imported corn is 1928.7 yuan/ton, down 4.44 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 45 dollars/ton [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2710 yuan/ton, 2950 yuan/ton, and 2880 yuan/ton respectively; the basis of the main contract is 46 yuan, up 4 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine is 401.85 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively; the predicted sowing areas are 35.37 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, 44.3 million hectares respectively [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The corn inventory at southern ports is 88.9 million tons, up 62 million tons; at northern ports is 291 million tons, down 13 million tons; the starch enterprise weekly inventory is 129.3 million tons, down 1.8 million tons [2]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import volume of corn is 16 million tons, down 3 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27780 tons, up 4060 tons [2]. - **Production**: The monthly output of feed is 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The sample feed corn inventory days are 30.58 days, down 0.29 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 113.77 million tons, up 7.53 million tons; the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 41.8%, up 3.17%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 51.76%, up 6.3% [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.92%, down 0.62%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.91%, up 0.11%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options is 6.92% and 6.91% respectively, down 2.64% and 2.65% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - In June, the total consumption of corn for ethanol production and other uses in the US was 498 million bushels, with a month - on - month increase of less than 1% and a slight decrease compared to June last year [2]. - As of July 30, the corn harvest progress in Argentina in the 2024/25 season was 88.0%, 4% higher than a week ago [2]. - As of the week of July 27, 2025, the excellent rate of US corn was 73%, in line with expectations, down from 74% the previous week and up from 68% the same period last year [2].