1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Monday, the I2509 contract fluctuated with a slight upward trend. Macroscopically, the number of non - farm payrolls in the US in July hit a 9 - month low. After the release of non - farm data, former US President Trump criticized Powell again and called for a rate cut. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the arrival volume increased, and the domestic port inventory declined. The molten iron output decreased slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons. Overall, iron ore still has demand support, and the market is shifting from sentiment - driven to reality - testing, with the market likely to enter a range - bound consolidation. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from a low level. Operationally, short - term trading is recommended, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - I main contract closing price was 790.50 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan; I main contract position was 402,645 lots, down 7,364 lots [2] - I 9 - 1 contract spread was 24.5 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; I contract's top 20 net position was - 19,361 lots, up 1,151 lots [2] - I Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts were 3,600 lots, unchanged; Singapore iron ore main contract quoted 101.35 US dollars/ton at 15:00, up 1.35 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB powder ore was 835 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; Qingdao Port 60.8% Mac fine ore was 823 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan [2] - Jingtang Port 56.5% Super Special fine ore was 717 yuan/dry ton, unchanged; I main contract basis was 32 yuan, down 9 yuan [2] - Iron ore 62% Platts Index (previous day) was 99.30 US dollars/ton, up 0.25 US dollars; Jiangsu scrap steel/Qingdao Port 60.8% Mac fine ore ratio was 3.35, down 0.06 [2] - Estimated import cost was 816 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,061.80 million tons, down 139.10 million tons; China's 47 - port arrival volume (weekly) was 2,622.40 million tons, up 302.70 million tons [2] - 47 - port iron ore inventory (weekly) was 14,222.01 million tons, down 173.67 million tons; Sample steel mills' iron ore inventory (weekly) was 9,012.09 million tons, up 126.87 million tons [2] - Iron ore import volume (monthly) was 10,595.00 million tons, up 782.00 million tons; Iron ore available days (weekly) were 24 days, up 1 day [2] - 266 mines' daily output (weekly) was 39.09 million tons, down 2.01 million tons; 266 mines' operating rate (weekly) was 62.32%, down 2.36% [2] - 266 mines' iron concentrate inventory (weekly) was 38.00 million tons, down 2.90 million tons; BDI index was 2,018.00, up 15.00 [2] - Iron ore freight rate: Tubarao, Brazil - Qingdao was 24.01 US dollars/ton, up 0.55 US dollars; West Australia - Qingdao was 10.37 US dollars/ton, up 0.40 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate (weekly) was 83.48%, unchanged; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate (weekly) was 90.22%, down 0.56% [2] - Domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - Underlying historical 20 - day volatility (daily) was 22.38%, up 0.01%; Underlying historical 40 - day volatility (daily) was 18.05%, down 0.06% [2] - At - the - money call option implied volatility (daily) was 19.78%, up 0.25%; At - the - money put option implied volatility (daily) was 20.77%, up 1.09% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From July 28 to August 3, 2025, China's 47 - port arrival volume was 2,622.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 302.7 million tons; 45 - port arrival volume was 2,507.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 267.3 million tons; Northern six - port arrival volume was 1,253.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 95.8 million tons [2] - From July 28 to August 3, 2025, Mysteel's global iron ore shipment volume was 3,061.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 139.1 million tons. The total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,532.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 223.7 million tons. Australia's shipment volume was 1,780.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 79.4 million tons, of which the volume shipped to China was 1,547.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.0 million tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 752.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 144.4 million tons [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively resilient, and the market is shifting from sentiment-driven to reality-checking. The market may enter a range-bound consolidation. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows a potential golden cross of DIFF and DEA at low levels. It is recommended to engage in short-term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,417 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2]. - HC main contract open interest: 1,437,071 lots, down 17,689 lots [2]. - HC contract top 20 net open interest: -80,361 lots, up 28,605 lots [2]. - HC10 - 1 contract spread: 2 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. - HC SHFE daily warehouse receipts: 55,998 tons, down 1,176 tons [2]. - HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 213 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,470 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,430 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Wuhan 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,470 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - Tianjin 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,360 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - HC main contract basis: 53 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou hot-rolled coil - rebar spread: 100 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 768 yuan/wet ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke: 1,365 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,270 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hebei Q235 billet: 3,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - 45-port iron ore inventory: 136.579 million tons, down 1.3248 million tons [2]. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 462,800 tons, down 35,200 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.2678 million tons, down 132,200 tons [2]. - Hebei billet inventory: 1.1102 million tons, up 41,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.48%, unchanged [2]. - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.22%, down 0.56% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil output: 3.2279 million tons, up 53,000 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 82.46%, up 1.35% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil factory inventory: 793,000 tons, up 13,000 tons [2]. - 33-city hot-rolled coil social inventory: 2.6865 million tons, up 14,900 tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel output: 8.318 million tons, down 336,000 tons [2]. - Steel net exports: 921,000 tons, down 89,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.7941 million units, up 145,600 units [2]. - Automobile sales: 2.9045 million units, up 218,100 units [2]. - Air conditioner production: 28.3831 million units, down 1.0969 million units [2]. - Household refrigerator production: 9.0474 million units, up 537,400 units [2]. - Household washing machine production: 9.5079 million units, up 95,900 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - US non-farm payrolls in July increased by 73,000, lower than the expected 104,000. After the data release, US President Trump criticized Powell again and called for a rate cut [2]. - In July, the performance of new energy vehicle startups was divided. Leapmotor's delivery volume exceeded 50,000 for the first time, reaching 50,129 units, a year-on-year increase of 126.9%. XPeng Motors also set a new delivery record, delivering 36,717 new cars in July, a year-on-year increase of 229.45%. Li Auto's delivery volume declined significantly, and NIO continued to hover around 20,000 units [2]. - On Monday, the HC2510 contract first declined and then rebounded. Macroscopically, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose reciprocal tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on countries or regions that have not reached an agreement with the US (including Canada, Brazil, etc.), and all tariffs will take effect on August 7, 2025. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils stopped falling and rebounded, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.46%, which is at a relatively high level; the apparent demand rebounded, and the inventory increased slightly [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Report's Core View - The market is in the off - season with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Recent tin price fluctuations have curbed market purchasing willingness. Downstream buyers mainly adopt the strategies of "replenishing inventory based on rigid demand and taking delivery with post - pricing", resulting in few high - price transactions. The spot premium has slightly dropped to 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventory has increased slightly. Technically, the position has declined, and both long and short positions are cautious. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see, with an expected range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton for the price to fluctuate and adjust [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 266,490 yuan/ton, up 1,540 yuan; the closing price of the LME 3 - month tin is 33,215 US dollars/ton, up 530 US dollars. The closing price difference between the August - September contracts of Shanghai Tin is - 560 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 27,212 lots, down 307 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 302 lots, down 109 lots. The total LME tin inventory is 1,950 tons, up 5 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,671 tons, up 254 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 535 tons, down 45 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of tin are 7,293 tons, up 7 tons [3] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 265,800 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 265,960 yuan/ton, up 1,890 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai Tin contract is - 690 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 0.5 US dollars/ton, up 15.5 US dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrates is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 252,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 256,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the average processing fee of 60% tin concentrates is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly production of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 172,850 yuan/ton, up 640 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] Industry News - The US added 73,000 non - farm jobs in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. "New Fed Wire" said that the cooling of non - farm employment opens the door for a rate cut in September, although inflation remains a concern. Starting from August 8, 2025, China will resume levying value - added tax on the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - Short - term supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is not significant, and the spot price fluctuation is expected to be small. SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, with support around 2450 and resistance around 2610. Attention should be paid to the impact of chlorine - alkali profits on industry operation and the 2450 support and 2610 pressure levels [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2529 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the futures holding volume is 189,077 lots, down 19,374 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is - 11,909 lots, down 1091 lots; the futures trading volume is 752,433 lots, down 277,186 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2606 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2688 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 820 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2562.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis is 34 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 638 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is - 150 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,980 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 3220 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.6 Industry News - From July 25th to 31st, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%. As of July 31st, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 424,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 3.87% and a year - on - year increase of 10.9% [3] 3.7 Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis - On the supply side, some devices were shut down last week, and some were restarted, with the capacity utilization rate decreasing by 0.1% to 83.9%. This week, a device in Southwest China is planned to shut down, and a device in Northwest China will restart, with the capacity utilization rate expected to change little. On the demand side, the alumina industry has good profits, and the operating rate has rebounded to a neutral level; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing has remained stable. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 3.87% to 424,200 tons last week [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 experienced a decline and then a rebound, closing at 6240 yuan/ton. The domestic pure benzene supply is expected to increase this week due to the impact of new production - capacity utilization and restart of shutdown devices. The insufficient number of imported cargo arrivals may partially offset the increase in domestic pure benzene. The downstream industries of pure benzene have both load - reduction and load - increase situations, with short - term demand expected to fluctuate slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, the new production capacity of downstream devices from July to August is higher than that of pure benzene, which gives an improving trend to the supply - demand of pure benzene. The international oil price is expected to be strong this week, and BZ2603 is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with attention paid to the support around 6100 and the pressure around 6440 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene is 6240 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main settlement price is 6231 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan; the main trading volume is 7340 hands, up 1106 hands; the main open interest is 12859 hands, down 219 hands [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in the East China, North China, South China, and Northeast regions are 6090 yuan/ton, 6060 yuan/ton, 6050 yuan/ton, and 6055 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 20 yuan/ton, - 30 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and - 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi regions are 6175 yuan/ton and 5900 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 50 yuan/ton and 0 yuan/ton. The spot prices of pure benzene in South Korea (FOB) and China (CFR) are 744 dollars/ton and 756.5 dollars/ton respectively, down 5 dollars/ton and 7 dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 71.52 dollars/barrel, down 0.53 dollars/barrel; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in the Japanese region is 603.88 dollars/ton, down 7.12 dollars/ton [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13%; the weekly output is 43.57 tons, up 1.09 tons; the port inventory is 17 tons, down 0.1 tons; the production cost is 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan/ton; the production profit is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 78.92%, up 0.08%; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 95.72%, up 6.41%; the capacity utilization rate of phenol is 78.54%, down 0.46%; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 69.24%, down 0.1%; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 64.3%, up 2% [2] Industry News - From July 25th to 31st, the weekly profit of PetroChina's benzene was 643 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [2] - As of August 4th, the pure benzene port inventory in Jiangsu was 16.3 tons, down 4.12% compared with the previous week [2] Viewpoint Summary - BZ2603 fell and then rebounded, closing at 6240 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the impact of restarted domestic petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene devices last week was higher than that of newly shut - down devices. The operating rate of petroleum benzene increased by 1.97% to 78.57%, and that of hydrogenated benzene increased by 2.55% to 62.95%. On the demand side, the operating rates of pure benzene downstream industries changed differently last week. The operating rates of styrene, caprolactam, aniline, and adipic acid changed little, while the operating rate of phenol decreased by 5% to 72.9%. In terms of inventory, the pure benzene inventory in East China ports decreased by 4.12% to 16.3 tons this week. Due to the new production - capacity utilization of petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene and the restart of shut - down devices, the domestic pure benzene supply is expected to increase this week. The insufficient number of imported cargo arrivals may partially offset the increase in domestic pure benzene. The downstream industries of pure benzene have both load - reduction and load - increase situations, with short - term demand expected to fluctuate slightly. From July to August, the new production capacity of downstream devices is higher than that of pure benzene, giving an improving trend to the supply - demand of pure benzene in the medium - to - long - term. In terms of cost, the demand in the traditional peak season in the US continues, the tariff deadlock eases, and the US sanctions on Russia may cause new supply risks. The international oil price is expected to be strong this week. BZ2603 is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with attention paid to the support around 6100 and the pressure around 6440 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - V2509 fell 1.17% to close at 4,981 yuan/ton. The supply side saw some PVC device overhauls and restarts last week, with the capacity utilization rate increasing by 0.05% to 76.84%. The demand side had low - level and narrow - range improvement in the start - up of the main downstream pipes, a continued decline in the start - up of profiles, and other varieties' start - up rates remaining at a low level. The PVC social inventory increased by 5.67% to 72.21 million tons last week. After the new capacity is put into operation in August, the supply is likely to rise. The impact of restarted devices will expand this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase month - on - month. Domestic downstream demand is in the off - season, with only rigid demand for purchases. The delay of the Indian BIS certification and anti - dumping policy has not effectively promoted overseas demand due to the rainy season. The calcium carbide industry's losses are dragging down the start - up, and its price is expected to be supported; the ethylene market's supply - demand changes are limited, and its price is expected to remain stable. Currently, the futures price has a slight premium over the spot price. V2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support around 4,900 yuan/ton technically [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,981 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan; the trading volume was 921,641 lots, a decrease of 29,572 lots; the open interest was 758,248 lots, a decrease of 8,604 lots. The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions was 804,697 lots, an increase of 42,366 lots; the sell order volume was 847,434 lots, an increase of 51,705 lots; the net buy order volume was - 42,737 lots, a decrease of 9,339 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of PVC ethylene - based was 5,140 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of PVC calcium - carbide - based was 4,929.23 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.08 yuan. In the South China region, the price of PVC ethylene - based was 5,105 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of PVC calcium - carbide - based was 4,961.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.88 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton (unchanged), in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC was - 111 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China was 2,590 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.67 yuan, and in Northwest China was 2,338 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 550 yuan/ton. The VCM CFR Far East intermediate price was 521 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18 US dollars; the VCM CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 548 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The EDC CFR Far East intermediate price was 211 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the EDC CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 219 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [3] Industry Situation - The weekly start - up rate of PVC was 76.84%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; the start - up rate of PVC calcium - carbide - based was 76.03%, a decrease of 3.22 percentage points; the start - up rate of PVC ethylene - based was 78.99%, an increase of 8.72 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 448,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons; the total social inventory in the East China region was 394,800 tons, an increase of 16,600 tons; the total social inventory in the South China region was 53,200 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.6, a decrease of 0.12. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, an increase of 71.8071 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.3332143 billion square meters, an increase of 83.0189 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 244.755 billion yuan, an increase of 53.2069 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 29.79%, an increase of 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 22.67%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 18.05%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 18.06%, a decrease of 1.21 percentage points [3] Industry News - On August 4th, the cash settlement price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou warehouses decreased by 50 - 80 yuan/ton compared to last Friday, with the price ranging from 4,840 - 4,900 yuan/ton. From July 26th to August 1st, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.84%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05%. As of July 31st, the PVC social inventory increased by 5.67% month - on - month to 72.21 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.10% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply of zinc is growing faster as zinc mine imports increase, processing fees rise, smelter profits improve, new production capacities are released, and previously shut - down capacities resume production. The import loss is widening, leading to a decline in imported zinc. On the demand side, it is the off - season, with a year - on - year drop in the开工率 of processing enterprises. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, downstream buyers purchase on - demand at low prices, and domestic social inventory accumulation has slowed down while the spot premium has slightly rebounded. Overseas, LME inventory has decreased significantly and the spot premium has been lowered. Technically, with reduced positions and price corrections, both long and short sides are cautious, and the price has broken below the MA60 support. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,255 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 08 - 09 month contract spread is 5 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,729.5 dollars/ton, down 32.5 dollars - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 211,200 lots, down 3,382 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is - 1,862 lots, down 1,646 lots - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 14,907 tons, down 75 tons; SHFE inventory is 61,724 tons, up 2,305 tons; LME inventory is 100,825 tons, down 3,975 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on SMM is 22,170 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market is 21,890 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 85 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is - 10.96 dollars/ton, down 4.4 dollars - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,040 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 15,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - WBMS: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; ILZSG: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons - ILZSG: The monthly global zinc mine output is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; the monthly domestic refined zinc output is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons - The monthly zinc mine import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the monthly refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons - The weekly zinc social inventory is 84,300 tons, up 800 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons - The monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters - The monthly automobile output is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner output is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 13.8%, down 1.17 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money zinc put options is 13.8%, down 1.2 percentage points - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.41%, down 0.76 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 14.08%, up 0.01 percentage points [3] 3.7行业消息 - In the US, the non - farm payrolls added 73,000 in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The "New Fed Wire" said that the cooling of non - farm employment opens the door for a September rate cut despite concerns about inflation - Starting from August 8, 2025, China will resume levying value - added tax on the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost support for stainless steel has weakened due to the significant decline in ferronickel prices recently, despite the increased cost of nickel resources from the Indonesian government's PNBP policy and the accelerated release of Indonesian ferronickel production [2]. - On the supply side, steel mills are facing increased cost - inversion pressure and are in a loss state across the board, leading to greater production cuts. Domestic anti - involution measures may also help alleviate the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further [2]. - On the demand side, it is the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainties and pressure on export demand. Downstream buyers are hesitant and less willing to accept high - priced goods, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand [2]. - Domestic stainless steel inventory has entered the destocking cycle, and the decline in inventory has accelerated with continuous production cuts [2]. - Technically, the position volume has decreased, and both bulls and bears are cautious. Attention should be paid to the support level at 12,800. It is recommended to wait and see or take a small long position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,925 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 85 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is 35 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 24,777 lots, a decrease of 1,719 lots. The main contract position volume is 87,475 lots, a decrease of 1,864 lots [2]. - The stainless steel warehouse receipt quantity is 102,925 tons, a decrease of 61 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled stainless steel (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 245 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly ferronickel production is 22,600 metal tons, a decrease of 1,300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton. The average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 million tons, a decrease of 40,700 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 608,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, an increase of 71.8071 million square meters [2]. - The monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. 3.6行业消息 - In the US, the non - farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The "New Fed Wire" said that the cooling of non - farm employment opens the door for a rate cut in September, although inflation remains a concern [2]. - Starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income from newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value - added tax [2]. - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the release of resources, increasing the cost of nickel supply. However, the production of Indonesian ferronickel has rebounded significantly [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 13940 | -115 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 38250 | -2721 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 300 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -20078 | 714 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 13900 | -300 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 13400 | -500 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 15500 | -400 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | -40 | -185 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 41731 | -1012 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4042 | 4 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | 0.1 | 0.2 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 2920 | 20 | | | 玉米现货价 | 2401 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The supply side of industrial silicon this week is complex. The resumption of production in the southwest production area during the wet - season is accelerating, with new capacity expected to be released next week. The reduction in Xinjiang is less than expected, and the superimposed supply effect of the northwest and southwest will gradually appear. There is a large potential for capacity release. On the demand side, the overall demand of the three major downstream industries for industrial silicon is still showing a slow - down trend. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,360 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the position of the main contract is 176,164 lots, down 1,8176 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 55,736 lots, up 52 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,516 lots, down 128 lots; the spread between September and October industrial silicon is - 5 yuan, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon is 9,450 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,900 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract is 1,090 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the DMC spot price is 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of silicone DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 dollars/kg, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC is 70.08%, an increase of 4.97 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice on the Special Energy - Saving Supervision Task List for the Polysilicon Industry in 2025", requiring local departments to complete the supervision and report the results by September 30, 2025. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and increase financing support for key areas [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - No news is reported today [2].