1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economy continued to recover in the first half of the year, with GDP growing by 5.3% year-on-year and a 1.1% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q2, providing strong support for the full - year GDP growth target of around 5%. In June, industrial production increased slightly, while fixed - asset investment and social retail sales declined slightly, and the unemployment rate remained stable at a low level. However, the price level was under pressure, with PPI in the negative growth range for seven consecutive months, indicating insufficient demand and supply - demand imbalance. In terms of financial data, social financing grew more than expected, credit demand improved marginally, and deposit activation increased. Against the backdrop of the stable economic development in the first half of the year, the urgency of large - scale incremental policies in the second half may decrease [93]. - In the overseas market, the US July S&P Global Composite PMI rebounded more than expected, with strong growth in the service sector, indicating that the economy's internal momentum remains resilient. The labor market is stable, with the number of initial jobless claims reaching the lowest level since April. Trade tensions have eased, with recent trade agreements between the US and Japan and progress in US - EU tariff negotiations. However, the independence of US policies is challenged as the US president visited the Fed to pressure for interest rate cuts, increasing concerns about the politicization of monetary policy. Given the strong economic data, the probability of an interest rate cut in the short term is further reduced, and policy path uncertainty may increase [93]. - Affected by policy themes such as "anti - involution" and Yajiang Water Conservancy Project construction, the equity market continued to strengthen, and the bond market continued to adjust, with long - term bonds performing significantly worse than short - term bonds. If the relevant details of the "anti - involution" policy are further introduced, it will continue to put pressure on the bond market in the short term. Due to the weak economic recovery and loose liquidity, the adjustment space for long - term bonds may be limited, and interest - rate bonds are likely to continue the pattern of weakening in a volatile manner. It is necessary to focus on the sustainability of the strong performance of risk assets. Operationally, it is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and allocate after the market stabilizes [94]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures main contracts fell by 2.05%, 0.61%, 0.43%, and 0.13% respectively. The trading volumes of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all decreased, as did their open interests [11][15][30]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Market Review**: The trading volumes and open interests of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all decreased [30]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - **Key News Review**: As of the end of Q2, the balance of RMB real - estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The balance of individual housing loans was 37.74 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. Foreign investment in RMB bonds increased, with the total amount of foreign - held RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion. Foreign investment in domestic stocks improved, with a net increase of $10.1 billion in stocks and funds in H1, and a net increase of $18.8 billion in May and June. Vice - Premier He Lifeng will go to Sweden for Sino - US economic and trade talks from July 27 - 30. The 2025 central budgetary investment of 735 billion yuan has been basically allocated, focusing on modern industrial systems, infrastructure, new urbanization, and rural revitalization. The Ministry of Commerce will take measures to combat strategic mineral smuggling. The US - Japan trade agreement was reached, with the US reducing the "reciprocal tariff" on Japan from 25% to 15%, and Japan increasing US rice imports and investing $550 billion in the US. The US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5, while the service and composite PMIs reached new highs since December 2024 [33][34]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year yields, and between 10 - year and 1 - year yields widened slightly. The spread between 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts widened, while the spread between 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts narrowed. The 10 - year contract's inter - period spread widened slightly, the 30 - year contract's inter - period spread narrowed slightly, and the 2 - year and 5 - year contracts' inter - period spreads widened [42][46][52]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net long positions of the top 20 holders of the T main contract increased slightly [62]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: Overnight Shibor, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month interest rates all increased, and the weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.65%. The yields of Treasury bonds weakened, with 1 - 7Y yields rising by 3.5 - 7.3bp, and 10Y and 30Y yields rising by 5.9bp and 6.3bp to 1.74% and 1.96% respectively. The spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields narrowed slightly [66][70]. - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1.6563 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases, 400 billion yuan in MLF injections, with 1.7268 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases and 200 billion yuan in MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 109.5 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.51% [73]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 1.578232 trillion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 1.757588 trillion yuan, resulting in a net financing of - 179.357 billion yuan [77]. - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1419, with a cumulative increase of 79 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB weakened. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield and the VIX index both decreased slightly. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield increased significantly, and the A - share risk premium increased [82][87][90]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategies - The domestic economy continues to recover, but the price level is under pressure. Overseas, the US economy is resilient, but policy uncertainty increases. Affected by policy themes, the bond market continues to adjust. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and allocate after the market stabilizes [93][94].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share major indices rose collectively this week, with small and medium-cap stocks outperforming large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market is in a macro data vacuum period, and investors are speculating on news and policy expectations. The upcoming Politburo meeting and the third Sino-US trade negotiation in Sweden have raised market expectations for more incremental policies and improved Sino-US trade relations. Market trading activity has increased, and the total trading volume of northbound funds has exceeded 900 billion yuan for three consecutive weeks [6][12]. - Treasury futures fell collectively this week, and the bond market was under pressure. The "anti-involution" policy and other factors have accelerated the diversion of funds to the stock and commodity markets. If relevant details of the "anti-involution" policy are further introduced, it will continue to put pressure on the bond market in the short term. Under the influence of weak economic recovery and loose liquidity, the adjustment space of long-term bonds may be limited, and interest rate bonds are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. - The commodity index may continue to rise due to the in - line GDP growth in the second quarter, the approaching Politburo meeting, and the progress of the "anti-involution" policy and tariff negotiations [6]. - The US dollar may maintain a short - term range - bound and slightly stronger trend due to the resilience of the employment market and the easing of trade frictions. The euro may be temporarily suppressed in the short term due to geopolitical uncertainties and the ongoing trade negotiation between the US and the EU [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations - **Stock Market**: A-share major indices, except the Shanghai Composite Index, rose by more than 2%. The four stock index futures also rose, with small and medium-cap stocks stronger. The market is in a macro data vacuum, awaiting the Politburo meeting and Sino-US trade negotiations. Market trading activity increased, and northbound funds' trading volume has been high for three consecutive weeks. The recommended allocation strategy is to watch cautiously [6][12]. - **Bond Market**: Treasury futures fell, and the bond market was under pressure. The "anti-involution" policy and other factors led to fund diversion. The long - end of the bond market performed much weaker than the short - end. The long - term bond adjustment space may be limited, and interest rate bonds are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The recommended allocation strategy is to watch cautiously [6]. - **Commodity Market**: The commodity index may continue to rise due to policy and economic factors. The recommended allocation strategy is to buy on dips [6]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The US dollar may maintain a short - term range - bound and slightly stronger trend, while the euro may be temporarily suppressed. The recommended allocation strategy is to watch cautiously [6][11]. Important News and Events - **Domestic**: Four departments deployed to regulate the new energy vehicle industry competition order; the "Housing Rental Regulations" will be implemented on September 15; the national economy in the first half of 2025 was stable and improving, and the fiscal policy will continue to be proactive in the second half; the "trade - in" policy for consumer goods has achieved significant results [14]. - **International**: Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of US industries to "negative"; a Fed governor called for a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July; the EU and the US are moving towards a trade agreement; the US and Japan reached a tariff negotiation agreement [11][16]. This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: The one - year LPR remained unchanged at 3%; the year - on - year growth rate of total social power consumption in June was 5.4%, and the consumption volume was 867 billion kWh [17]. - **US**: The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in July was - 20; the Conference Board Leading Index in June decreased by 0.3% month - on - month; the initial jobless claims in the week ending July 19 were 2.17 million; the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5 [17]. - **EU**: The consumer confidence index in July was - 14.7; the manufacturing PMI in July was 49.8; the ECB deposit mechanism rate remained at 2% [17]. - **Other Countries**: The manufacturing PMI in the UK, Germany, and France in July showed different degrees of change [17]. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - **July 28 - 31**: Include the UK's CBI retail sales difference, US housing price indices, GDP data of France and the eurozone, US ADP employment data, and central bank interest rate decisions of the US and Japan [80][81]. - **August 1**: Include Japan's unemployment rate, eurozone CPI, US unemployment rate, non - farm payrolls, and ISM manufacturing PMI [81].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on the urea market from July 19 - 25, 2025, released by Ruida Futures Research Institute [2] - The researcher is Lin Jingyi, with futures qualification number F03139610 and investment consulting certificate number Z0021558 [2] Group 2: Weekly Summary - This week, the domestic urea market showed an oscillating upward trend. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong rose to 1800 - 1850 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 40 yuan/ton week - on - week [6] - New plant overhauls have led to a slight decrease in domestic urea daily output. Next week, 2 enterprises plan to stop production, and 2 stopped enterprises will resume production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the probability of output reduction is high [6] - Domestic agricultural demand is advancing slowly, with only limited local agricultural top - dressing demand. The rigid demand support is limited. The compound fertilizer industry is in the autumn fertilizer production stage, with stable and rising operating rates, but high - temperature and high - humidity weather still restricts some production [6] - Recently, domestic urea demand is weak, and the overall order - taking and shipment of urea factories have slowed down. Although domestic urea enterprise inventories continue to decline due to some goods being exported and concentrated at ports, the decline has narrowed [6] - It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1770 - 1830 yuan [6] Group 3: Futures Market - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures oscillated and closed higher, with a weekly increase of 3.32% [10] - As of July 25, the UR 9 - 1 spread was - 4 [14] - As of July 25, there were 2523 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 0 compared with last week [20] Group 4: Spot Market - As of July 24, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1810 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1820 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [25] - As of July 24, the FOB China price of urea was 435 US dollars/ton, an increase of 25 US dollars/ton compared with last week [28] - As of July 24, the urea basis was 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton compared with last week [32] Group 5: Upstream Market - As of July 23, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 665 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [36] - As of July 24, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.12 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.39 US dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [36] Group 6: Industry Situation - As of July 24, China's urea production was 135.47 tons, a decrease of 1.40 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02%. The capacity utilization rate was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.87% from the previous period, and the downward trend continued [39] - As of July 24, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 54.3 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons week - on - week, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. The overall port inventory changed little [43] - As of July 23, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 85.88 tons, a decrease of 3.67 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.10%. The inventory continued to decline, but the decline narrowed [43] - In June 2025, urea exports were 66240.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2618.13%; the export average price was 366.28 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4662.05% [46] Group 7: Downstream Market - As of July 24, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.58%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03 percentage points. It is expected to continue to increase slightly next week, but high - temperature and high - humidity weather still restricts some production [49] - As of July 24, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 65.20%, an increase of 0.96 percentage points from last week [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote key industries to adjust structures, optimize supplies, and eliminate backward production capacity; Trump plans to impose simple tariffs of 15% - 50% on most countries. Fundamentally, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the approval of mining licenses, actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter; the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in phases, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels. Technically, there is an increase in volume and positions, the bullish sentiment is strengthening, and the price has broken through the 270,000 mark. Operationally, a bullish approach is recommended, with a reference range of 272,000 - 278,000 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 273,950 yuan/ton, up 5,410 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month tin is 34,750 US dollars/ton, up 830 US dollars. The closing price difference between the August - September contracts for Shanghai tin is - 210 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The main contract position for Shanghai tin is 14,958 lots, down 746 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai tin is 84 lots, down 415 lots. LME tin total inventory is 1,690 tons, down 25 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 7,148 tons, up 51 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 295 tons, up 20 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipts are 6,863 tons, up 56 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 272,400 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 273,390 yuan/ton, up 3,930 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is 360 yuan/ton, up 2,580 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 175 US dollars/ton, up 90 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fees is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 253,500 yuan/ton, down 1,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 257,500 yuan/ton, down 1,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fees is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 176,870 yuan/ton, up 1,970 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 0.1445 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Trump plans to impose simple tariffs of 15% - 50% on most countries and is willing to abandon the tariff clause if major countries open their markets to the US. The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to improve the coordinated development mechanism of state - owned and private enterprises. The EU and the US are moving towards an agreement with a 15% tariff rate, and the EU is preparing a retaliatory tariff plan of up to 93 billion euros with a maximum rate of 30% [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - In the smelting sector, Yunnan is facing a shortage of raw materials and high costs, while Jiangxi's scrap recycling system is under pressure, and the operating rate is low. On the demand side, after the rush to install photovoltaic equipment, the operating rate of some producers has declined; the electronics industry is in a off - season with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Recently, the spot market has been sluggish, with few transactions, and downstream enterprises have low purchasing willingness. Domestic inventory has decreased slightly, while LME inventory has decreased significantly, and cancelled warrants have increased slightly [3]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/7/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 2244.900 1583.9 | | 32.6↑ EC次主力收盘价 | | +57.00↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2508-EC2510价差 661.00 -41.70↓ EC2508-EC2512价差 465.00 | | | | -72.90↓ | | EC合约基差 | 155.60 | | -5.20↓ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | | 9684 | -1355↓ | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 2400.50 -21.44↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 1,301.81 | | | | 35.2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A-shares' major indexes rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points. The market expects positive news from the upcoming Sino-US trade talks. Central Huijin's large-scale ETF purchases in Q2 stabilized market expectations. Although the real estate market still drags down fixed - asset investment and the support for social retail sales from trade - in programs has weakened, loose monetary policies are showing results, and the stock index has long - term upward potential. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Contract Prices**: IF (2509) at 4141.2 (+31.4), IH (2509) at 2816.6 (+14.0), IC (2509) at 6226.0 (+105.2), IM (2509) at 6618.6 (+119.4) [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: IF - IH spread at 1331.6 (+16.8), IC - IF spread at 2122.6 (+73.6), etc. [2]. - **Futures - Spot Basis**: IF basis at - 7.8 (+2.7), IH basis at 4.2 (+2.6), IC basis at - 67.6 (+9.2), IM basis at - 82.5 (+24.7) [2]. - **Futures Positioning**: IF top 20 net position at - 29,671.00 (+2272.0), IH at - 16,384.00 (+927.0), IC at - 14,176.00 (+1424.0), IM at - 43,052.00 (+1859.0) [2]. 3.2 Spot Market and Market Sentiment - **Spot Indexes**: CSI 300 at 4149.04 (+29.3), SSE 50 at 2812.44 (+11.2), CSI 500 at 6293.60 (+96.8), CSI 1000 at 6701.12 (+93.9) [2]. - **Market Sentiment Indicators**: A - share trading volume at 18,738.81 billion yuan (- 244.90), margin trading balance at 19,358.17 billion yuan (+25.44), etc. [2]. 3.3 Industry News - Central Huijin bought over 200 billion yuan of core broad - based ETFs in Q2 2025 [2]. - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27 - 30 [2]. - China's Q2 GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, while social retail and fixed - asset investment growth slowed, and the real estate market declined. M1 and M2 growth accelerated in June [2]. 3.4 Key Events to Watch - July 24: ECB interest rate decision, US initial jobless claims, and SPGI manufacturing PMI [3]. - July 27: China's June industrial enterprise profits [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Cotton is in a destocking state, and supply is tight before the new cotton hits the market. The textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders and a continuous decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are more cautious in purchasing raw materials due to rising prices. China's cotton planting area increased in 2025, but some areas in Xinjiang face high - temperature heat damage risks. The previous continuous rise in cotton futures prices has digested the supply - tightness bullish factor, and as prices rise, downstream purchasing becomes cautious, leading to weakening upward momentum. The short - term main contract will continue the adjustment trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now, while continuously monitoring weather and macro factors [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14,160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closed at 20,360 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 35,734 lots, down 29 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it was - 360 lots, up 87 lots. The main contract positions for cotton were 518,897 lots, down 19,303 lots; for cotton yarn, 12,081 lots, down 1,767 lots. Cotton warehouse receipts were 9,337 sheets, down 45 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 96 sheets, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,563 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 20,740 yuan/ton, unchanged. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,728 yuan/ton, unchanged; the landed price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 22,042 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) was 14,438 yuan/ton, unchanged; the landed price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - refined 32 - count cotton yarn was 23,914 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,177 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The national industrial inventory of cotton was 850,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons. The monthly import volume of cotton was 30,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The daily profit from importing cotton was 1,105 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The national commercial inventory of cotton was 2.8298 million tons, down 0.6289 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. The monthly cloth output was 2.779 billion meters, up 0.109 billion meters; the monthly yarn output was 2.065 million tons, up 0.114 million tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, up 0.1688977 billion US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, down 0.0583566 billion US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 13.13%, down 0.11%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton was 13.13%, down 0.11%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.24%, up 0.22%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.64%, up 0.05% [2] Industry News - In June 2025, China's cotton import volume was 27,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.4%, with imports below 100,000 tons for four consecutive months. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 461,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.47%. From September 2024 to September 2024, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 941,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.63%. The upward revision of US cotton crop ratings and rainfall forecasts in production areas pressured US cotton futures prices. The third round of China - US trade negotiations will be held in Stockholm, Sweden, on the next Monday and Tuesday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the peak season of aquaculture is coming, which boosts the feed demand for rapeseed meal. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases supports the forward market. The high - operating rate of oil mills and the continuous inventory build - up of soybean meal suppress the price of the rapeseed meal market. There is an expected decline in pig inventory and the promotion of soybean meal substitution, reducing demand expectations. The short - term trading is recommended, mainly due to the decline in positions after the previous continuous rise [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the high - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increased while exports declined from July 1 - 20, which restricts palm oil prices. But the significant increase in Indonesian exports and positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, with a relatively loose supply of vegetable oil and high inventory pressure on rapeseed oil mills, restricting market prices. However, the decrease in the operating rate of oil mills weakens the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter may reduce forward pressure. Affected by the rise of palm oil, rapeseed oil rose synchronously, but due to the expected resumption of China - Australia trade, rapeseed oil has been weaker than soybean and palm oil recently, with intensified short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9,492 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal was 2,682 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed was 698.4 Canadian dollars/ton, up 8.4 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed was 5,082 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan [2]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 inter - monthly spread of rapeseed oil was 53 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 9 - 1 inter - monthly spread of rapeseed meal was 270 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 211,985 lots, down 8,793 lots; the open interest of the main contract of rapeseed meal was 512,685 lots, down 25,919 lots [2]. - **Net Long Positions of Top 20 Holders**: The net long positions of rapeseed oil were 12,249 lots, up 4,034 lots; the net long positions of rapeseed meal were 22,215 lots, down 11,788 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3,487, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged [2]. 3.2现货市场 - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,570 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,330 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2,860 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. - **Average Price and Related Ratios**: The average price of rapeseed oil was 9,590 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed was 4,990.05 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan; the oil - meal ratio was 3.5, down 0.05; the basis of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 94 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan; the basis of the main contract of rapeseed meal was - 112 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,270 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 290 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Import**: The global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged; the total rapeseed import volume was 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons, up 5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 15.72%, up 5.86 percentage points; the crushing profit of imported rapeseed was 238 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas was 9.25 million tons, down 0.04 million tons; the inventory of rapeseed meal in coastal areas was 1.2 million tons, down 0.31 million tons; the inventory of rapeseed oil in the East China region was 58.45 million tons, down 0.82 million tons; the inventory of rapeseed meal in the East China region was 35.13 million tons, down 2.91 million tons; the inventory of rapeseed oil in the Guangxi region was 5.6 million tons, down 0.32 million tons; the inventory of rapeseed meal in the South China region was 27 million tons, down 1.2 million tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 2.91 million tons, down 0.38 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal was 2.32 million tons, down 0.14 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly output of feed was 2,762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4,578.2 billion yuan, up 411.2 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 25.07%, up 2.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 25.07%, up 2.18 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 16.33%, up 1.44 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 16.33%, up 1.44 percentage points [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 15.55%, up 3.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 17.53%, up 0.69 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 10.84%, up 0.09 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 12.67%, down 0.23 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 23, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, following the upward trend of the vegetable oil market. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures rose 8.10 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 698.10 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the analyst's expectation of 71%, the previous week's 70%, and the same as the same period last year. The weather in the US soybean - producing areas is currently good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand, with a recommended light - position oscillatory trading strategy [2]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of stable supply and weak demand, and light - position oscillatory trading is recommended [2]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, and light - position oscillatory trading is also recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum was 20,760 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures was 3,427 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan. The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quote was 2,639 US dollars/ton, down 13 US dollars [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 17,539 hands to 309,943 hands; the main contract positions of alumina decreased by 4,907 hands to 189,037 hands [2]. - The LME aluminum inventory increased by 6,350 tons to 444,800 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventory increased by 5,625 tons to 108,822 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,720 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 645 yuan to 65 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 100 yuan to - 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production in the current month was 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons [2]. - The import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments decreased by 4,084.65 tons to 155,616.27 tons; the export volume decreased by 8.11 tons to 64.33 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.5 million tons to 4,520.7 million tons; the production of aluminum products increased by 11.17 million tons to 587.37 million tons [2]. - The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 6 million tons to 49 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy increased by 0.16 million tons to 2.58 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.29 million tons to 61.89 million tons; the production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.1 million tons to 126 million tons [2]. - The automobile production increased by 16.66 million vehicles to 280.86 million vehicles; the national real estate prosperity index decreased by 0.11 to 93.60 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 0.04% to 10.27%; the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.01% to 10.09% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 0.0082% to 11.02%; the call - put ratio decreased by 0.0580 to 1.04 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Trump proposed to impose simple tariffs of 15% - 50% on most countries and would be willing to abandon the tariff clause if major countries opened their markets to the US [2]. - The US tariff increase would reduce global demand in the short term, raise import prices, and intensify inflation. It might also lead to geopolitical economic fragmentation [2]. - The EU and the US were moving towards an agreement with a 15% tariff rate on most products, and the EU was preparing a retaliatory tariff plan [2]. 3.8 Alumina Viewpoint Summary - The main alumina contract showed an oscillatory trend, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The supply was expected to be relatively sufficient in the short term, and the demand was supported by the electrolytic aluminum project [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint Summary - The main Shanghai Aluminum contract was oscillating weakly, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak due to the off - season [2]. 3.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy Viewpoint Summary - The main cast aluminum alloy contract was oscillating weakly, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply and demand were both weak, and the inventory was gradually accumulating [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent criticism of the Fed Chair by Trump and the defense of central bank independence by the Treasury Secretary have increased market divergence on the future interest - rate path, weakening dollar confidence and boosting the appeal of gold as a non - interest - bearing asset. Uncertainty in interest - rate expectations has solidified the demand for safe - havens. The agreement between the US and Japan on tariff cuts initially boosted the dollar and Treasury yields, but the subsequent decline was quickly absorbed by the gold price. Multiple investment banks have raised their gold price forecasts for the year to between $3600 and $4000. The underperformance of the US in multiple economic indicators has limited the upward momentum of the dollar and yields, providing macro - environmental support for high gold prices. Geopolitical risks may trigger a rapid inflow of safe - haven funds. Future economic data and the Fed's stance at the meeting will determine the trends of Treasury yields and the dollar, which in turn will affect the gold price. It is recommended to maintain the view of buying on dips, while being cautious of short - term correction risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 778.74 yuan/gram, down 14.16 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9386 yuan/kg, down 106 yuan. The main - contract positions of Shanghai gold were 213,456 lots, down 8931 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 459,484 lots, down 18,795 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 160,396 lots, down 1408 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 135,258 lots, up 1070 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 29,358 kg, up 501 kg; that of silver was 1,188,721 kg, up 239 kg [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 787.97 yuan/gram, up 6.47 yuan; the spot price of silver was 9419 yuan/kg, up 105 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 4.93 yuan/gram, down 1.59 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 73 yuan/kg, up 6 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings were 954.8 tons, unchanged; silver ETF holdings were 15,207.82 tons, up 49.45 tons. Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 213,115 contracts, up 10,147 contracts; silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 59,448 contracts, up 927 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the total annual global demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 12.86%, up 1.92 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 12.23%, up 0.93 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 22.12%, up 0.8 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.12%, up 0.81 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US - Japan tariff negotiation reached an agreement, with the "reciprocal tariff" rate on Japan lowered from 25% to 15%, and Japan will increase imports of US rice. Trump plans to impose 15% - 50% simple tariffs on most other countries and is negotiating with the EU. The EU and the US are moving towards an agreement with a 15% tariff rate on most products. Trump criticized the Fed for lacking "courage" and called for a three - percentage - point interest - rate cut. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged in September is 37.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 61.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 1.6% [2]