瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.25」 焦煤市场周报 反内卷下政策支撑，焦煤期货连续涨停 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 523家炼焦煤矿山产量：原煤日均产量194.7万吨，环比增1.9万吨。 2. 110家洗煤厂产量：日均产量52.15万吨减1.23万吨。 3. 炼焦煤总库存（独立焦化厂+6大港口+钢厂）：为1899.68万吨，环比增加41.61万吨，同比增加7.81%。 4. 吨焦盈利情况：全国30家独立焦化厂平均吨焦亏损54元/吨。 5. 钢厂盈利率：钢厂盈利率63.64%，环比上周增加3.47个百分点，同比去年增加48.49个百分点。 6. 需求端铁水产量：铁水高位。日均铁水产量 242.23万吨，环比上周减少0.21万吨，同比去年增加2.62万吨。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 持仓量增加8.5万手，月差增加10.0个点 图 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Macro sentiment and improved raw material fundamentals drive the strengthening of futures and spot markets. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce measures to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity in key industries, leading to strong macro expectations. The China Iron and Steel Association aims to prevent over - capacity risks. - Overseas, Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden. - In terms of supply and demand, coke has a third price increase. Raw material supply is improving. Iron - water production is at a high level, and most coal mines have no inventory pressure, with strong price - holding intentions. The total coking coal inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 54 yuan/ton. - Technically, the daily K - line of the coke main contract is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, showing a bullish trend. - Strategy suggestion: With positive macro expectations and the market sentiment extremely high due to coking coal's five daily limit up movements driving coke's one daily limit up, the coke main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a plan to promote structural adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity in key industries. The China Iron and Steel Association focuses on preventing over - capacity risks [9]. - **Overseas**: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27 - 30 [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Coke has a third price increase. Raw material supply is improving. Current iron - water production is 242.23 tons, a decrease of 0.21 tons. Iron - water production is at a high level. Most coal mines have no inventory pressure, and coal mines have strong price - holding intentions. The total coking coal inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 54 yuan/ton [9]. - **Technical**: The daily K - line of the coke main contract is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, showing a bullish trend [9]. - **Strategy**: The coke main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of July 25, the coke futures contract position is 55,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 166 lots. The 1 - 9 contract month spread is 48.00 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.0 points. The registered coke warehouse receipt is 760 lots, unchanged from the previous period. The futures screw - coke ratio is 1.90, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 [13][18]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 24, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port is 1,330 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is 1,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. As of July 25, the coke basis is - 405.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 166.0 [26]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Industry**: The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 54 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.61%, an increase of 0.71%. The daily coke output is 51.92, an increase of 0.51. The coke inventory is 50.12, a decrease of 5.43. The total coking coal inventory is 841.21, an increase of 51.02. The available coking coal days are 12.2 days, an increase of 0.62 days [34]. - **Downstream**: The daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 242.23 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.62 tons. As of July 18, the total coke inventory (independent coking plants + 4 major ports + steel mills) is 886.63 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.37 tons and a year - on - year increase of 13.62% [38]. - **Inventory Structure**: The port inventory of coking coal and coke has decreased. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills has increased. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 86.97%, an increase of 0.13%, and the daily coke output is 47.16, an increase of 0.07 [42]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, China's coke and semi - coke exports were 51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 41.3%; from January to June, the cumulative exports were 351 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.9%. In June, China's steel exports were 967.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.5%; from January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 5,814.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [46]. - **Housing Data**: In June 2025, the second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.30% month - on - month. As of the week of July 20, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 133.91 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74%. The commercial housing transaction area in first - tier cities increased by 23.12% month - on - month, while that in second - tier cities decreased by 12.39% month - on - month [51][55].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) and the cotton yarn futures contract (2509) both declined, with weekly decreases of about 0.7% and 0.73% respectively [7][21]. - Internationally, there is a lack of strong factors guiding the US cotton market, which is fluctuating. The third round of China - US trade negotiations will be held, and trade dynamics should be monitored [7]. - Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, and the supply is tight before the new cotton is launched. The inventory of imported cotton in major ports has decreased, while the demand side shows obvious signs of the off - season in the textile industry, with reduced profitability and lower operating rates of spinning enterprises [7]. - In 2025, the overall cotton planting area in China has increased, but there is a high risk of heat damage to cotton in some areas of Xinjiang due to high - temperature weather [7]. - Overall, as prices rise, downstream procurement becomes more cautious, and the upward momentum of the market is weakening. However, the tight supply provides strong support, and the market is expected to adjust strongly. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to weather and trade relations [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) and the cotton yarn futures contract (2509) declined this week, with decreases of about 0.7% and 0.73% respectively [7][21]. - **Market Outlook**: Internationally, the US cotton market is fluctuating. Domestically, cotton supply is tight before the new cotton is launched, and the textile industry is in the off - season. The overall market is expected to adjust strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather conditions [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract decreased slightly this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.28%. As of July 15, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 0.89% month - on - month, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 4.40% month - on - month, and the net position increased by 15.67% month - on - month [11]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of July 17, the net export sales of US cotton in the current market year decreased by 32,700 bales, and the net export sales in the next market year increased by 132,600 bales. The export shipments increased by 18% compared with the previous week. As of July 22, the Cotlook:A index was 78.65 cents per pound, a 1.01% decrease month - on - month [16]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) and the cotton yarn futures contract (2509) declined this week. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 futures traders in cotton was - 39,736, and that in cotton yarn was - 394 lots. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,265, and that of cotton yarn was 96 [21][27][33]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 25, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,549 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,740 yuan per ton. As of July 23, 2025, the CY index: OEC10s (air - spun yarn) was 14,800 yuan per ton [41][54]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of July 23, 2025, the import price index of cotton (FC Index):M: 1% quota port pick - up price was 13,728 yuan per ton, a 0.26% increase month - on - month; the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was 14,438 yuan per ton, a 0.17% increase month - on - month. The import price index of cotton yarn (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C32S was 21,203 yuan per ton, a 0.09% increase month - on - month [58]. - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of July 23, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 1,105 yuan per ton, and that of imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,815 yuan per ton [62]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of June, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.8298 million tons, a 18.18% decrease month - on - month. As of June 15, the industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a 1.17% decrease month - on - month. In June 2025, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 82.1% [66][70]. - **Mid - end Industry**: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a 6.8% increase month - on - month, and the grey cloth inventory was 35.46 days, a 7.81% increase month - on - month [74]. - **Terminal Consumption**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a 4.62% decrease month - on - month; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, a 12.44% increase month - on - month. The cumulative retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, needles and textiles were 742.59 billion yuan, a 20.98% increase month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year was 3.1%, a 6.06% decrease month - on - month [78][82]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market Correlation - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money options this week is provided, but specific data is not detailed in the summary part [83]. - **Stock Market**: Information about the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is provided, but specific data is not detailed in the summary part [88].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.25」 工业硅多晶硅市场周报 双硅情绪驱动上行，光伏报价成为焦点 研究员:黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 u 行情回顾： 本周工业硅上涨11.85%，本周工业硅在反内卷会议下，期货价格一路上行，市场开启反内卷会议交易。本 周工业硅上涨主要来自于多晶硅拉升，企业目前拥有较多利润，预计后续套保企业增多，有望压制期货价格，但是整 体依旧维持在成本之上，多晶硅方面本周上涨16.36%，本周受到光伏行业反内卷驱动，整体价格出现大幅拉升，但是 整体涨幅有所收敛，到了周五出现了高位回落，主要原因来自于虽然多晶硅价格抬升，但是下游光伏组件未有动作， 基本面压制价格上行，下周预计整体期货价格高位盘整且重心下移。 u 行情展望：工业硅方面，本周供应端情况较为复杂。在西北伊犁地区，化肥补贴政策稳定执行，大型生产企业维持现 有生产节奏，暂无减产或停产消息传出 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View The report indicates that the terminal demand for hot - rolled coils has strong resilience, and the futures price of hot - rolled coils remains strong. Although the apparent demand has回调, the overall is still at a relatively high level. The production has a small decline, and the factory and social inventories have increased slightly. The profitability rate of steel mills has improved. Considering macro, supply - demand, cost, and technical aspects, the HC2510 contract should be cautious about chasing high prices, but buying on dips can be considered, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [2][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights 3.1.1. Market Review - As of July 25, the futures price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3507 yuan/ton (+197), and the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coil was 3380 yuan/ton (+150) [5]. - Hot - rolled coil production continued to decline slightly, reaching 317.49 million tons (-3.65) [5]. - Apparent demand回调 but remained at a relatively high level. The current period's apparent demand was 315.24 million tons (-8.55), a year - on - year decrease of 5.98% [5]. - Factory and social inventories both increased slightly. The total inventory was 345.16 million tons (+2.25), a year - on - year decrease of 85 million tons [5]. - The profitability rate of steel mills was 63.64%, an increase of 3.47 percentage points from last week and 48.49 percentage points from last year [5]. 3.1.2. Market Outlook - Macro: Overseas, the European Central Bank kept three major interest rates unchanged, and Trump gave up the idea of firing Powell. Domestically, the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission advocated against "involution - style" competition, and China - US economic and trade talks were scheduled [7]. - Supply - demand: Hot - rolled coil weekly production continued to decline slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 81.11%. Factory and social inventories increased slightly, and apparent demand decreased by 8.55 million tons to 315.24 million tons [7]. - Cost: Iron ore prices冲高回调, port inventories increased, and coking coal prices rose due to supply contraction expectations [7]. - Technical: The HC2510 contract continued to rise, with a bullish arrangement of daily K - line moving averages and an expanding red column in the MACD indicator [7]. - Strategy: Be cautious about chasing high prices for the HC2510 contract, but consider buying on dips, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures Price - This week, the HC2510 contract continued to rise. It was weaker than the HC2601 contract, with a spread of - 11 yuan/ton on the 25th, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.2. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On July 25, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 58362 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2385 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of hot - rolled coil futures contracts was 63262, an increase of 28892 from the previous week [19]. 3.2.3. Spot Price - On July 25, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3510 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton. The national average price was 3503 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 148 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coils was weaker than the futures price, with a basis of 3 yuan/ton on the 25th, a week - on - week decrease of 67 yuan/ton [23]. 3.3. Upstream Market 3.3.1. Raw Material Prices - On July 25, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore powder at Qingdao Port was 832 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [30]. 3.3.2. Iron Ore Shipment and Arrival - From July 14 - 20, 2025, the global iron ore shipment was 3109.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 122.0 million tons. The shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2552.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.8 million tons. The Chinese 47 - port arrival volume was 2511.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 371.4 million tons [34]. 3.3.3. Iron Ore Inventory - This week, the iron ore port inventory increased. The total inventory of 47 ports was 14395.68 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.17 million tons. The daily average discharge volume was 329.33 million tons, a decrease of 9.43 million tons. On July 24, the billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 106.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.3 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 9.75 million tons [38]. 3.3.4. Coking Plant Situation - This week, the coking plant capacity utilization rate increased to 73.61% (+0.71%), and the coke inventory decreased. The daily coke output was 51.92 (+0.51), the coke inventory was 50.12 (-5.43), the total coking coal inventory was 841.21 (+51.02), and the available coking coal days were 12.2 days (+0.62 days) [42]. 3.4. Industry Situation 3.4.1. Supply Side - In January - June, steel exports increased year - on - year. In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 8318 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. From January - June, the cumulative crude steel output was 51483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%. In June, steel exports were 967.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90.0 million tons, and from January - June, the cumulative exports were 5814.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In June, steel imports were 47.0 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1 million tons, and from January - June, the cumulative imports were 302.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4% [45]. - On July 25, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, unchanged from last week and a year - on - year increase of 1.13 percentage points. The hot - rolled coil weekly output was 317.49 million tons, a decrease of 3.65 million tons from last week [48]. - On July 24, the hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 78 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.69 tons, and the social inventory of 33 cities was 367.16 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.56 million tons. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 345.16 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.25 million tons [53]. 3.4.2. Demand Side - In June 2025, automobile production and sales were 279.4 million and 290.4 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 11.4% and 13.8%. From January - June, the cumulative production and sales were 1562.1 million and 1565.3 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.5% and 11.4%. From January - June, the cumulative production of household air - conditioners was 16329.61 million units (+5.5% year - on - year), household refrigerators were 5064.16 million units (+0% year - on - year), and household washing machines were 5860.36 million units (+10.3% year - on - year) [56].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile upward trend. The main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead futures was active, but it was switched to the 2509 main contract on Friday, with a weekly increase of 0.65% for 2508. In the context of declining supply and insufficient demand, Shanghai lead still showed a slight increase this week. Future trading will mainly focus on anti - involution and the Fed's interest - rate meeting. Whether there will be an unexpected interest rate cut in July may become the key trading point in the market [4]. - The operating rate of primary lead smelters has decreased due to the decline in lead prices, leading to a decline in production. Currently, the operating rate of primary lead remains stronger than that of secondary lead, and its by - product revenue is stable. However, with the continuous fluctuation of lead prices, some primary lead smelters have adjusted their production decisions. For secondary lead, due to the tight supply of waste battery raw materials, smelters lack confidence, resulting in a tight overall supply. From the actual resumption of production rhythm, the resumption progress is slow due to cost inversion. On the demand side, although the lead - acid battery industry is approaching the traditional peak season, the actual spot trading is average, and downstream customers are still in a wait - and - see state. The slow inventory removal of dealers has suppressed the enthusiasm of battery factories, and the seasonal peak season effect has not yet appeared. Domestic inventory shows a slight upward trend, indicating a slowdown in overall demand. In summary, the overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly next week, demand will not change much, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [4]. - It is recommended that the Shanghai lead main contract 2509 fluctuate mainly, with a fluctuation range of 16,800 - 17,400 and a stop - loss range of 16,500 - 17,900. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile upward trend this week. The main contract 2508 was active but switched to 2509 on Friday, with a 0.65% increase for 2508. Future trading will focus on anti - involution and the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and an unexpected July rate cut may be the trading focus [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Primary lead production has declined due to price and processing fee drops. Secondary lead supply is tight due to raw material shortages and slow resumption. The lead - acid battery industry is approaching the peak season, but actual demand is weak, and inventory is rising. Overall, supply is expected to decline slightly next week, demand will be stable, and lead prices may fluctuate upward [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The Shanghai lead main contract 2509 is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,400, with a stop - loss range of 16,500 - 17,900 [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: Domestic and foreign lead futures prices have increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio has decreased. As of July 25, 2025, the LME 3 - month lead futures closing price was $2,035/ton, and the lead futures closing price (active contract) was 16,955 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai - London ratio of 8.33 [6][10]. - **Premium and Discount**: Domestic and foreign lead premium and discount have weakened. As of July 25, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was - 200 yuan/ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was - $24.27/ton [12][16]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Foreign and domestic lead inventories and warehouse receipts have decreased, indicating that overall demand for Shanghai lead has flattened. As of July 24, 2025, the total lead inventory was 6.58 tons (down 0.1 million tons), the LME lead total inventory was 269,325 tons (down 925 tons), and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt quantity was 59,959 tons (down 325 tons) [29][33]. 3. Industry Situation - **Supply - Primary Lead**: The operating rate and production of primary lead enterprises have decreased due to lower lead prices and processing fees. As of July 18, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major producing areas was 70.84% (down 7.03% from last week), and the weekly production was 33,200 tons (down 2,900 tons from last week) [18][20]. - **Supply - Secondary Lead**: The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead enterprises has continued to decline, and production is still in the off - season. As of July 18, 2025, the domestic production of secondary lead in major producing areas was 18,900 tons (down 1,300 tons month - on - month), and the average capacity utilization rate was 41.25% (down 2.22% month - on - month). The number of secondary lead production enterprises remained unchanged, with 68 enterprises as of June 30, 2025 [24][27][37]. - **Supply - Trade**: Lead exports have decreased in growth rate, while imports have increased significantly. In June, the export volume of refined lead was 3,183 tons (down 42.69% month - on - month and up 133.69% year - on - year), and the import volume of refined lead was 817 tons, with a lead alloy import volume of 10,657 tons. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of refined lead and lead products was 34,748 tons (up 29.89% year - on - year), and the cumulative import volume was 75,013 tons (up 152.1% year - on - year) [39][41]. - **Demand - Processing Fees**: Domestic lead concentrate processing fees have declined, while imported ore processing fees have remained flat, which will continue to affect production. As of July 18, 2025, the national average processing price of lead concentrate was 540 yuan/ton, and the average processing fee TC for imported lead concentrate (Pb60) was - $50/thousand tons [44][46]. - **Demand - Automobile Production and Sales**: The growth rate of automobile production and sales has decreased. In June 2025, domestic automobile sales were 2.904 million (up 8.1% month - on - month and 13.8% year - on - year). From January to June, the cumulative export volume of refined lead and lead products increased by 29.89% year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume increased by 152.1% year - on - year [48][51]. - **Demand - Battery and Charging Piles**: The price of lead - acid batteries has remained stable, and the growth rate of public charging piles has slowed down. As of May 2025, the number of national charging piles was 4,082,800, and as of July 24, 2025, the average price of 48V/20AH waste lead - acid batteries in Zhejiang was 394 yuan/group [53][57].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.25」 沪铜市场周报 政策积极预期向好，沪铜或将有所支撑 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 业务咨询 添加客服 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线偏强震荡，周线涨跌幅为1.07%，振幅2.1%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价79250元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美国7月标普全球制造业PMI初值下降至49.5，创2024年12月以来新低。但服务业PMI初值为55.2， 综合PMI初值为54.6，均创2024年12月以来新高。国内方面，工信部总工程师谢少锋：钢铁、有色、石化等十大重点行 业稳增长工作方案即将出台。工业和信息化部将推动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能。基本面矿端，铜精矿 TC费用处于负值区间，铜矿供应紧张仍是当下主要矛盾，铜价的成本支撑逻辑仍在。供给方面，原料港口库存逐步回落至 中低位，加之政策方面的引导和调整，国内精铜产量方面增速或略有放缓。需求方面，当前下游加工企业消费仍处淡季， 加之，近期因行业预期提升铜价表现强势，下游在淡季节点对高价铜的接受度较 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2460 - 2550 in the short - term [7] - Recently, the output of restored methanol production capacity in China is more than the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight increase in overall production [8] - Affected by favorable macro - policies this week, the market trading atmosphere is good, and inland enterprises have smooth sales, driving a slight increase in pending orders and a significant decrease in enterprise inventory [8] - This week, the methanol port unloading speed is far lower than expected, resulting in an unexpected reduction in port inventory. Next week, the arrival of foreign vessels may increase significantly, and port inventory may accumulate, but the impact of weather on unloading speed needs attention [8] - This week, the operation load of olefin enterprises in East China decreased slightly, and the overall olefin industry's start - up decreased slightly. Next week, the Zhongmei Mengda plant is expected to resume, and the olefin industry's start - up will increase [8] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2460 - 2550 in the short - term [7] - Market review: The domestic port methanol market is slightly stronger this week. The price in Jiangsu ranges from 2370 - 2480 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2370 - 2450 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market mainly rises. The price in the northern line of Ordos ranges from 2085 - 2100 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying ranges from 2255 - 2285 yuan/ton. Favorable macro factors, low inventory in production areas, some device renovations, and external procurement demand from olefins lead to rising prices [8] - Market outlook: The output of restored methanol production capacity is more than the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, with a slight increase in overall production. Affected by favorable macro - policies, the market trading atmosphere is good, enterprise inventory decreases, and pending orders increase. Port inventory decreases unexpectedly this week, and may accumulate next week. The olefin industry's start - up may increase next week [8] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - The price of the main methanol contract in Zhengzhou fluctuates and closes higher this week, with a weekly increase of 6.51% [11] - As of July 25, the MA 9 - 1 spread is - 68 [16] - As of July 25, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts is 10134, an increase of 1590 from last week [23] Spot Market - As of July 25, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China is 2487.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 102.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China is 2050 yuan/ton, an increase of 67.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China is 437.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton from last week [29] - As of July 24, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 282 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port is 51 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7 US dollars/ton from last week [34] - As of July 25, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol is - 31.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.5 yuan/ton from last week [37] 3. Industry Chain Analysis Upstream - As of July 23, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal is 665 yuan/ton, the same as last week. As of July 24, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.12 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.39 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41] Industry - As of July 24, China's methanol production is 1898825 tons, an increase of 29100 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate is 83.98%, a month - on - month increase of 1.56% [44] - As of July 23, the total methanol port inventory in China is 72.58 tons, a decrease of 6.44 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreases by 8.70 tons, and in South China increases by 2.26 tons. The methanol port inventory decreases unexpectedly this week. The inventory of sample production enterprises is 33.98 tons, a decrease of 1.25 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.55%; the pending orders of sample enterprises are 24.48 tons, an increase of 0.17 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.70% [48] - In June 2025, China's methanol import volume is 122.02 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.58%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative methanol import volume is 537.73 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.68%. As of July 24, the methanol import profit is 17.63 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.2 yuan/ton from last week [51] Downstream - As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices is 86.08%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15%. The operation load of olefin enterprises in East China decreases slightly this week, and the overall industry's start - up decreases slightly [54] - As of July 25, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit is - 1136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 356 yuan/ton from last week [57]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.25」 天然橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周宏观气氛偏多，胶价继续上移。进口胶市场报盘上涨，贸易商轮换，套利盘加仓， 工厂刚需询盘。期货盘面偏强震荡，现货报盘重心上移，市场观望情绪较浓，下游接货积极性欠 佳，多维持刚需采购。 行情展望：全球天然橡胶产区处于割胶期，云南产区降雨影响，胶水较少，收购价格保持坚挺； 海南产区局部存在降水扰动，岛内原料供应季节性增量缓慢，受期现货行情上涨提振，部分加工 厂对原料加价抢收情绪持续升温。近期青岛港口现货总库存呈现去库态势，保税及一般贸易库均 呈现小幅去库，海外货源到港入库较前期明显减少，且胶价上涨推动轮胎企业补库意愿，进而带 动整体出库量大于入库量，青岛港口总库存呈现去库态势。需求方面，个别意外检修企业生产恢 复，带动本周国内轮胎整体产能利用率小幅提升，临近月底，企业整体出货表现不及预期，成品 库存小幅增加， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber price in Shandong market fluctuated after rising, with the spot price ranging from 1,1500 to 1,2300 yuan/ton. Sinopec Chemical Marketing and major sales companies of PetroChina raised the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber by 500 yuan/ton. As of July 24, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 1,2200 and 1,2300 yuan/ton [6]. - Recently, the support from cost and supply side has weakened, and the trading center of butadiene rubber is under pressure due to shipment pressure. After the restart of Yanshan Petrochemical, Jinzhou Petrochemical and Heze Kexin next week, the domestic supply increase will gradually appear, and the shipment pressure on the spot side will increase. It is expected that the inventory of production enterprises will tend to increase. The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly this week, but the overall shipment performance was lower than expected at the end of the month, and the finished product inventory increased slightly. There is an expectation that the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises will decline in the short term [6]. - The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,1800 - 1,2800 in the short term [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber price in Shandong market fluctuated after rising, and the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber was raised by 500 yuan/ton. As of July 24, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price was between 1,2200 and 1,2300 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The support from cost and supply side has weakened. After the restart of some enterprises next week, the supply will increase, and the shipment pressure on the spot side will rise. The inventory of production enterprises is expected to increase. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may decline in the short term [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,1800 and 1,2800 in the short term [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 6.16% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific content provided in the summary scope. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of July 25, the 8 - 9 spread of butadiene rubber was - 30 [17]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 25, the warehouse receipts of cis - butadiene rubber were 2,390 tons, an increase of 290 tons compared with last week [20]. Spot Market - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of July 24, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 1,2100 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton compared with last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was - 185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 215 yuan/ton compared with last week [24]. 3. Industry Conditions Upstream - **External Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of July 24, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 576.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.56 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [27]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of July 25, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70%, an increase of 2.04% compared with last week. The port inventory of butadiene was 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons compared with last week [30]. Industry - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In June 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons compared with last month. As of July 24, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 67.63%, an increase of 2.42% compared with last week [34]. - **Production Profit**: As of July 24, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 192 yuan/ton compared with last week [37]. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,320 tons, an increase of 70 tons compared with last week. The inventory of manufacturers was 24,850 tons, a decrease of 800 tons compared with last week; the inventory of traders was 7,470 tons, an increase of 870 tons compared with last week [40]. Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, a month - on - month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.06 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.98 percentage points [43]. - **Tire Exports**: In June 2025, China's tire exports were 717,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31%. From January to June, the cumulative tire exports were 4.1213 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.34% [46]. 4. Options Market Analysis - No relevant content found