Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Currently, the egg supply is relatively sufficient due to a high inventory of laying hens and the pressure of newly - opened laying hens from previous replenishments. However, the process of old hen culling has accelerated after prices reached a relatively low level, reducing inventory expectations. Nationwide high - temperature weather has led to a decline in the egg - laying rate in some areas, alleviating short - term supply pressure. Terminal demand is gradually recovering, releasing farmers' expectation of price increases and promoting a low - level rebound of egg prices. The downward trend of the futures market has slowed down, and it is advisable to try to go long on far - month contracts with a light position [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3,636 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 32,578 lots, up 82 lots; the monthly spread (9 - 1) of egg futures is - 31 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 28 yuan; the trading volume of the active egg futures contract is 239,016 lots, down 8,812 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 lots [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of eggs is 3.39 yuan per catty, up 0.02 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is - 249 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 19 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 111.91 (with 2015 = 100), up 1.02; the national culled laying hen index is 104.09 (with 2015 = 100), down 4.59; the average price of layer chicks in the main production areas is 3.88 yuan per chick, down 0.02 yuan; the national new - chick index is 76.07 (with 2015 = 100), down 30.71; the average price of layer compound feed is 2.72 yuan per kilogram, unchanged; the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.47 yuan per hen, up 0.22 yuan; the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 9.6 yuan per kilogram, up 0.4 yuan; the average age of culled chickens nationwide is 501 days, down 5 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.62 yuan per kilogram, up 0.05 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.36 yuan per kilogram, down 0.03 yuan; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.2 yuan per kilogram, down 0.27 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.04 days, down 0.13 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 0.95 days, down 0.1 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12,792.51 tons, down 110.81 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7,886 tons, up 289 tons [2] Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, Hebei, Guangdong, and Beijing in the main production areas remained unchanged from the previous day. The current inventory of laying hens is high, and the pressure of newly - opened laying hens is large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. However, after the price reached a relatively low level, the culling of old hens accelerated, and the high - temperature weather in many places led to a decline in the egg - laying rate, alleviating short - term supply pressure [2] Key Points of Attention - No news today [2]

Report Overview - The report is the Carbonate Lithium Industry Daily Report on July 24, 2025 [1] 1. Market Data Summary Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 76,680 yuan/ton, up 7,300 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was -160,463 lots, down 1,892 lots; the position of the main contract was 436,727 lots, up 74,673 lots; the spread between near and far contracts was 1,500 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE were 10,754 lots/ton, up 665 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was -6,130 yuan/ton, down 7,200 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 0 US dollars/ton, down 730 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite was 6,800 yuan/ton, up 475 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 1,966 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 44,100 tons, up 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 17,697.62 tons, down 3,448.16 tons; the monthly export volume was 429.65 tons, up 142.92 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 52%, up 5 percentage points; the monthly production of power batteries was 129,200 MWh, up 5,700 MWh [2] Downstream and Application - The price of ternary materials (811 - type, China) was 144,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary materials (622 - power - type, China) was 119,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary materials (523 - single - crystal type, China) was 124,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 51%, down 4 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 32,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 52%, up 3 percentage points [2] New Energy Vehicle - The monthly production of new energy vehicles was 1,268,000 units, down 2,000 units; the monthly sales were 1,329,000 units, up 22,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 44.32%, up 0.33 percentage points; the cumulative sales were 6,937,000 units, up 1,993,000 units; the monthly export volume was 205,000 units, down 7,000 units; the cumulative export volume was 1,060,000 units, up 455,000 units [2] Option Situation - The total subscription position was 210,332 lots, up 16,378 lots; the total put position was 89,733 lots, down 2,989 lots; the put - call ratio of total positions was 42.66%, down 5.1436 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.39%, down 0.0014 percentage points [2] 2. Industry News - With the progress of the "anti - involution" in the market, the prices of many commodity futures contracts have fluctuated significantly. On the evening of July 23, GZEE adjusted the price limit range, trading margin standard, trading fee standard and trading limit of relevant futures contracts such as industrial silicon, polysilicon and lithium carbonate [2] - According to the data from Chengdu Customs, in the first half of this year, Chengdu's total foreign trade imports and exports reached 427.47 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. The import and export scale increased quarter by quarter. The exports of "new three" products increased by 33.6%, among which photovoltaic products and lithium - ion batteries increased by 185% and 204.8% respectively [2] - According to the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Industry Branch, in June, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium hydroxide remained basically flat. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow rapidly, and the installed capacity of power batteries increased year - on - year. The production of lithium salts remained stable, but the inventory increased due to lower sales willingness caused by falling prices [2] - The EU and the US are moving towards an agreement that will set a 15% tariff rate for most products. The EU may prepare a retaliatory tariff plan of up to 93 billion euros with a maximum rate of 30% in case an agreement cannot be reached before August 1 [2] 3. Core Viewpoints - The prices of many commodity futures contracts have fluctuated significantly. GZEE has taken measures to cool down the market and prevent risks [2] - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a state where the industry expectation has been repaired, but the actual situation is still weak. The industry inventory is accumulating, and more effective demand is needed to drive inventory reduction [2] - In the option market, the subscription position dominates, and the market sentiment is bullish, with the implied volatility slightly decreasing [2] - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis and the red bars are expanding [2] - The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position trading in a volatile market and pay attention to controlling risks [2]

生猪产业日报 2025-07-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 14365 | -225 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 62464 | -4839 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 284 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -20784 | 20 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 14300 | -100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 13900 | -200 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 15700 | -200 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | -290 | -310 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 41731 | -1012 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4042 | 4 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | -0.1 | 0 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 2860 | -60 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - International sugar market has a supply - side overhang due to favorable supply prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries during the monsoon season, which keeps the raw sugar market price under pressure. In the domestic market, there is a divergence between domestic and foreign price strengths. The profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, and the import pressure has been released. In June, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, suppressing sugar prices. On the demand side, during the summer consumption peak, the food and beverage industry has inventory replenishment needs, and seasonal consumption of cold drinks has recovered, providing some support for prices. Overall, domestic demand is rising, domestic futures price performance is stronger than the overseas market, with multiple factors at play, and the market is expected to move in a volatile manner. It is recommended to keep an eye on arrivals at ports and summer consumption, and for now, it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5,866 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 342,009 lots, an increase of 9,969 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 20,940, down 158. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 8,187 lots. The total of valid warehouse receipt forecasts for sugar is 0. The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,460 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,520 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,665 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5,743 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Nanning, it is 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou, it is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons. Brazil's total sugar exports are 3.359 billion tons, an increase of 1.1024 billion tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,480 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1,420 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. Outside the quota (50% tariff), the price difference for Brazilian sugar is 275 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; for Thai sugar, it is 197 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.79%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 8.79%, an increase of 1.34 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 4.62%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.92%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The Brazilian Sugarcane Technology Center reported that the average yield and quality of sugarcane in the central - southern region declined in June. On Wednesday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed down 0.06%, while the domestic sugar 2509 contract closed up 0.69%. Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the supply outlook for major Asian sugar - producing countries is favorable, and the expectation of oversupply has been weighing on the raw sugar market price [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with increasing positions, spot discounts, and weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index has slightly rebounded but remains in the negative range. The supply is expected to increase slightly steadily, while the demand is temporarily weak due to the seasonal off - peak consumption season. However, with the increasing macro - policy support, the industry outlook is gradually improving. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct light - position volatile trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 79,890 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,941 dollars/ton, up 10.5 dollars. The main contract's open interest is 181,496 lots, up 8,601 lots. The LME copper inventory is 124,825 tons, down 25 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 84,556 tons, up 3,094 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 79,795 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 79,785 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The CU main contract basis is - 95 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The output of refined copper is 130.20 million tons, up 4.80 million tons. The copper concentrate prices in Jiangxi and Yunnan have both decreased by 20 yuan/metal ton [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,840 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 221.45 million tons, up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment is 29.11 billion yuan, up 8.7114 billion yuan; the cumulative real estate development investment is 466.5756 billion yuan, up 104.2372 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.65%, up 0.06%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.98%, down 0.04%. The at - the - money IV implied volatility is 12.68%, down 0.0044%; the at - the - money option purchase - put ratio is 1.5, up 0.0422 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Trump plans to impose 15% - 50% tariffs on most countries. The EU and the US are moving towards an agreement with a 15% tariff rate on most products, and the EU is preparing a retaliatory tariff plan of up to 93 billion euros with a maximum rate of 30% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 24, Treasury bond spot yields weakened collectively, with 1 - 7Y maturity yields rising by about 2.75 - 3.60bp, and 10Y and 30Y yields rising by about 3.15bp to 1.74% and 1.95% respectively. Treasury bond futures closed down collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts falling by 0.07%, 0.21%, 0.29%, and 0.91% respectively. The central bank continued net withdrawals, and affected by the capital gap, the weighted average rate of DR007 climbed to around 1.57% [2]. - Domestically, in June, industrial added - value increased slightly, fixed - asset investment and social retail sales decreased slightly, and the unemployment rate remained low. In terms of financial data, social financing increased more than expected, credit demand improved marginally, and the degree of deposit activation increased. Overseas, the US and Japan reached a trade agreement, easing global trade tensions. Recently, Fed officials' statements showed increased internal divergence on the impact of tariffs on the inflation path, but the policy tone remained cautiously watchful, and there was no consensus on interest - rate cuts, reducing the possibility of a short - term rate cut [2]. - Catalyzed by policy themes such as "anti - involution" and Yajiang water conservancy construction, the equity market continued to strengthen, and the bond market continued to adjust. The long - end performance was significantly weaker than the short - end. If more detailed rules related to "anti - involution" are introduced, it will continue to pressure the bond market in the short term. Affected by the weak economic recovery and loose liquidity, the adjustment space of long - term bonds may be limited, and interest - rate bonds are likely to continue the pattern of oscillating weakness. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the strong performance of risk assets. Operationally, it is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and choose the opportunity to allocate after stabilization [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Futures Prices and Volumes - T main contract closed at 108.220, down 0.29%, with a trading volume of 90,744 contracts, a decrease of 675 contracts [2]. - TF main contract closed at 105.585, down 0.21%, with a trading volume of 88,969 contracts, a decrease of 666 contracts [2]. - TS main contract closed at 102.304, down 0.07%, with a trading volume of 55,229 contracts, a decrease of 417 contracts [2]. - TL main contract closed at 118.250, down 0.92%, with a trading volume of 152,329 contracts, a decrease of 275 contracts [2]. 3.1.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2509 spread was - 0.20, down 0.03; T09 - TL09 spread was - 10.03, up 0.72 [2]. - T2512 - 2509 spread was 0.03, down 0.05; TF09 - T09 spread was - 2.64, up 0.09 [2]. - TF2512 - 2509 spread was 0.08, unchanged; TS09 - T09 spread was - 5.92, up 0.22 [2]. - TS2512 - 2509 spread was 0.09, up 0.01; TS09 - TF09 spread was - 3.28, up 0.13 [2]. 3.1.3 Futures Positions - T main contract open interest was 196,329 contracts, an increase of 2,431 contracts. The top 20 long positions were 201,483 contracts, an increase of 3,049 contracts; the top 20 short positions were 194,743 contracts, an increase of 1,102 contracts; the net short position of the top 20 was - 6,740 contracts, a decrease of 1,947 contracts [2]. - TF main contract open interest was 159,796 contracts, an increase of 1,940 contracts. The top 20 long positions were 165,141 contracts, an increase of 4,183 contracts; the top 20 short positions were 176,706 contracts, an increase of 1,546 contracts; the net short position of the top 20 was 11,565 contracts, a decrease of 2,637 contracts [2]. - TS main contract open interest was 106,090 contracts, a decrease of 974 contracts. The top 20 long positions were 80,831 contracts, an increase of 926 contracts; the top 20 short positions were 90,943 contracts, a decrease of 2,360 contracts; the net short position of the top 20 was 10,112 contracts, a decrease of 3,286 contracts [2]. - TL main contract open interest was 122,606 contracts, an increase of 2,694 contracts. The top 20 long positions were 126,655 contracts, an increase of 3,656 contracts; the top 20 short positions were 126,589 contracts, an increase of 2,682 contracts; the net short position of the top 20 was - 66 contracts, an increase of 974 contracts [2]. 3.2 Bond Market 3.2.1 CTD Bonds - The net prices of CTD bonds such as 220010.IB (6y), 250007.IB (6y), 240020.IB (4y) all declined [2]. 3.2.2 Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active Treasury bonds all increased, with increases of 1.50bp, 1.85bp, 2.25bp, 1.15bp, and 1.40bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates 3.3.1 Short - term Interest Rates - Overnight silver - pledged repo rate was 1.5412%, up 15.12bp; Shibor overnight was 1.6350%, up 26.80bp [2]. - 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.5800%, down 2.00bp; Shibor 7 - day was 1.5450%, up 8.20bp [2]. - 14 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.6500%, up 5.00bp; Shibor 14 - day was 1.6150%, up 8.80bp [2]. 3.3.2 LPR Rates - The 1 - year LPR was 3.00%, unchanged; the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 331 billion yuan, and the maturity scale was 450.5 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 119.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will go to Switzerland from July 27th to 30th for economic and trade talks with the US [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the draft amendment to the Price Law, further clarifying the criteria for identifying improper price behavior [2]. - Hainan Free Trade Port will start the full - island customs closure operation on December 18th this year, and the proportion of "zero - tariff" commodity tariff items for "first - line" imports will increase from 21% to 74% [2]. 3.6 Key Data to Watch - At 20:15 on July 24th, the European Central Bank will announce its interest - rate decision [3]. - At 20:30 on July 24th, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 19th will be released [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Summer seasonal fresh fruits are on the market, substituting for tonic products like red dates. Red date demand is in a seasonal off - peak, with slow inventory digestion and high old - crop inventory. The new - season crop is in the critical fruit - setting period, and the market focuses on the weather in the producing areas. The estimated new - season production is 56 - 62 million tons, down 5 - 10% from the normal year of 2022 and 20 - 25% from 2024. Red dates fluctuate repeatedly in the game between high old - crop inventory and differences in the reduction range of new - season production. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for red dates is 10,515 yuan/ton. The main contract position is 125,888 lots, a decrease of 6,797 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,395 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts is 8,893 lots. The total effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1,448 lots [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The prices of red dates in different regions are as follows: the unified price of red dates in Kashgar is 6 yuan/kg, the first - grade gray jujube wholesale price in Hebei is 4.35 yuan/jin, the unified price of red dates in Alar is 5.2 yuan/kg, the first - grade gray jujube wholesale price in Henan is 4.35 yuan/jin, the unified price of red dates in Aksu is 4.8 yuan/kg, the special - grade red date price in Henan is 9.8 yuan/kg, the special - grade red date price in Hebei is 9.81 yuan/kg, the special - grade red date price in Guangdong is 11 yuan/kg, and the first - grade red date price in Guangdong is 9.8 yuan/kg [2]. 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual red date production is 3.187 million tons, and the planting area is 6.069 million hectares, a decrease of 4.1 hectares compared with the previous period [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 10,320 tons, a decrease of 110 tons from the previous week, a 1.05% month - on - month decrease and a 74.89% year - on - year increase. The monthly export volume of red dates is 1,765,107 kg, a decrease of 464,120 kg; the cumulative monthly export volume is 17,115,674 kg [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The red date wholesale price in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, is 20 yuan/kg. The cumulative sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiangni is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons. The cumulative year - on - year production of red dates of Hao Xiangni is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 24, the temperature in Kashgar was between 21 - 34°C. Jujube farmers were actively engaged in field management such as watering and fertilizing. The temperature was suitable for fruit setting, and the jujube fruits were significantly larger than those in the First Division of the Corps and Aksu. The estimated mainstream per - mu yield is 600 - 800 kg. Attention should be paid to the growth situation and weather changes in the producing areas [2]. 3.7 Trading Suggestion - It is recommended to wait and see for now due to the high old - crop inventory and differences in the reduction range of new - season production [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the output of restored methanol production capacity in China exceeded the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight increase in overall production [2]. - This week, boosted by favorable macro - policies, the market trading atmosphere was good. Mainland enterprises had smooth sales, resulting in a slight increase in pending orders and a significant decrease in enterprise inventories [2]. - This week, the port unloading speed was far lower than expected, while the提货 and consumption were stable, leading to an unexpected reduction in methanol port inventories. Next week, the arrival of foreign vessels may increase significantly, and port methanol inventories may accumulate significantly, but the impact of weather and other factors on the unloading speed needs to be noted [2]. - In terms of demand, the load of olefin enterprises in East China decreased slightly this week, and the operation of other enterprises' devices was stable. The overall domestic olefin industry's operation rate decreased slightly. Next week, the Zhongmei Mengda device is expected to resume, and the olefin industry's operation rate will increase [2]. - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2450 - 2500 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2480 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main methanol contract was 632,187 lots, a decrease of 34,449 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 89,760 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts was 10,134, a decrease of 50 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2400 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2037.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 362.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 11 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 276 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 330 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 218 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 54 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.06 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.2 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 54.7 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 17.88 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons [2]. - The import profit of methanol was 18.2 yuan/ton, an increase of 33.86 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 1.2202 million tons, a decrease of 72,100 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 339,800 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons; the operation rate of methanol enterprises was 82.69%, a decrease of 2.06 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operation rate of formaldehyde was 43.65%, a decrease of 1.59 percentage points; the operation rate of dimethyl ether was 5.19%, unchanged [2]. - The operation rate of acetic acid was 90.59%, a decrease of 3.32 percentage points; the operation rate of MTBE was 67.63%, an increase of 0.77 percentage points [2]. - The operation rate of olefins was 85.1%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 1059 yuan/ton, a decrease of 122 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 18.74%, an increase of 2.46 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 24.53%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 22.51%, an increase of 1.34 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.5%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of July 23, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 339,800 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.55%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 244,800 tons, an increase of 1700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.70% [2]. - As of July 23, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 725,800 tons, a decrease of 64,400 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 87,000 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 22,600 tons [2]. - As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 86.08%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Core Views - **Corn**: Internationally, the good early - stage growth rate of US corn leads to high output prospects, keeping international corn prices under pressure. Domestically, after a round of grain sales, traders' inventories are tight, and they have a strong price - holding mentality. Although the transaction rate of imported grain auctions has slightly increased, the actual volume is limited, and the delivery speed is slow. However, due to the low profit of deep - processing enterprises and relatively safe feed enterprise inventories, the price increase momentum is insufficient, and the price maintains a narrow - range adjustment. The corn futures market has been in a low - level oscillation recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - **Corn Starch**: Affected by continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years, reducing supply pressure. But the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and it is the traditional off - season for downstream demand, so the supply - demand situation remains loose. The starch inventory has decreased slightly, and the futures price has rebounded at a low level recently. Short - term observation is recommended [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Corn**: The closing price of the active contract is 2318 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders increased by 9029 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume decreased by 3247 hands; the CS - C spread of the main contract decreased by 3 yuan/ton [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The closing price of the active contract is 2669 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders increased by 2247 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume decreased by 1100 hands [2]. Outer Market - The closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn is 417.75 cents/bushel, up 0.25 cents; the total position decreased by 28569 contracts; the non - commercial net long position increased by 12305 contracts [2]. Spot Market - **Corn**: The average spot price is 2408.82 yuan/ton, down 0.2 yuan/ton; the import CIF price is 1989.01 yuan/ton, down 4.69 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract increased by 2.8 yuan/ton [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang remain unchanged; the basis of the main contract decreased by 7 yuan/ton; the spread between Shandong starch and corn decreased by 20 yuan/ton [2]. Substitute Spot Price - The average spot price of wheat is 2444.56 yuan/ton, up 1.95 yuan/ton; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch increased by 40 yuan/ton; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder decreased by 2 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sowing areas and yields of corn in major countries such as the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine remain unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - **Corn**: The inventories at southern and northern ports decreased by 4.8 and 360,000 tons respectively; the import volume decreased by 30,000 tons; the consumption of deep - processed corn decreased by 57,300 tons [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The export volume increased by 4060 tons; the industry's weekly inventory decreased by 35,000 tons to 1311,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 2.60%, a monthly increase of 0.15%, and a year - on - year increase of 19.40% [2][3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed increased by 981,000 tons; the sample feed's corn inventory days decreased by 0.24 days; the alcohol enterprise's operating rate decreased by 4.62 percentage points; the starch enterprise's operating rate decreased by 4.83 percentage points; the processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin remained unchanged [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn decreased by 0.03 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options increased by 0.72 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Analysts expect the net sales volume of US corn exports from July 10 - 17, 2025, to be between 500,000 and 1.6 million tons; Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintains the 2025 US corn yield per acre at a record 182 bushels; as of July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn is 74%, the same as the previous week and higher than the same period last year [2]. Key Focus - Pay attention to mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory on Thursday and Friday [3].

纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-07-24 续下滑，下游深加工订单下滑，采购以刚需为主，汽车玻璃厂备货量增加难以抵消地产相关需求疲软，光 伏玻璃需求也面临库存压力。本周依旧交易预期为主，纯碱玻璃基差维持正常范围，后续市场交易更多是 免责声明 政策预期,今日玻璃也出现涨停，但是整体冲高回落，今日顺利突破60日线，但是受到短期消息影响为主， 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 继续观察突破有效性，建议暂时观望 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1408 | 70 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1307 | 96 | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日 ...