Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the current high good - rate of US soybeans and concentrated arrival of imported soybeans lead to short - term supply relaxation and pressure on the meal market. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases supports the forward market. The peak season of aquaculture increases the demand for rapeseed meal, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The domestic rapeseed meal market is stronger than the external market due to trade policy uncertainty, and it may maintain short - term fluctuations [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the increase in palm oil inventory and the weakening of palm oil prices, along with the off - season of domestic oil consumption and high inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills, restrain the market price. However, the decline in rapeseed oil production pressure and the possible tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect future supply. The rapeseed oil market is boosted by the strengthening of soybean oil and shows increased short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9470 yuan/ton (up 66 yuan), rapeseed meal is 2653 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan), ICE rapeseed is 689 Canadian dollars/ton (up 6.5 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed is 5065 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan) [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 72 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 344 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan). The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 14661 lots (up 228 lots), and for rapeseed meal are 24639 lots (up 10416 lots) [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3510 (unchanged), and that of rapeseed meal is 8911 (down 1175) [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9570 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan), rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2560 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the oil - meal ratio is 3.64 (unchanged) [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 166 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), and that of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 93 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8230 yuan/ton (unchanged), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8770 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2820 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and the domestic annual forecast is 12378 thousand tons (unchanged). The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 33.55 million tons (down 15.37 million tons) [2]. - Pressing profit and inventory: The import rapeseed crushing profit is 297 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan), the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 15 million tons (down 5 million tons), and the weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed is 9.86% (down 2.67%) [2]. Industry Situation - Imports and inventories: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 34 million tons (up 10 million tons), and that of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons (up 4.13 million tons). The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 9.29 million tons (down 0.72 million tons), and that of rapeseed meal is 1.51 million tons (up 1.05 million tons) [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.29 million tons (up 1.18 million tons), and that of rapeseed meal is 2.46 million tons (up 0.14 million tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - Production and consumption: The current - month production of feed is 2762.1 million tons (up 98.1 million tons), and that of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons. The current - month catering revenue in social consumer goods retail sales is 4578.2 billion yuan (up 411.2 billion yuan) [2]. Option Market - Implied and historical volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.25% (down 0.17%), and that of put options is 19.25% (down 0.18%). For rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of call options is 11.73% (down 1.76%), and that of put options is 11.72% (down 1.77%) [2]. Industry News - On July 15, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, driven by the rise of other oils. The most actively traded November contract rose 8.20 Canadian dollars to 690.80 Canadian dollars per ton. As of July 13, the good - rate of US soybeans was 70%, up 4 percentage points from the previous week and higher than the expected 67% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The egg price has been at a relatively low level compared to the same period, and the breeding end has been in a loss state. However, after the price reaches a relatively low level, the process of old - hen elimination accelerates, reducing the inventory expectation. The egg - laying rate of laying hens in some areas has declined due to high - temperature weather, alleviating the short - term supply pressure. Coupled with the gradual recovery of terminal demand, the egg price is promoted to rebound. The decline of the futures market has also slowed down, and it is recommended to try to go long on the far - month contract with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3,591 yuan/500 kilograms, down 24 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 28,810 lots, down 2,588 lots; the egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is - 21 yuan/500 kilograms, down 16 yuan; the futures trading volume of the active contract is 246,092 lots, up 7,505 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 lots [2]. Spot Market - The egg spot price is 2.8 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is - 792 yuan/500 kilograms, up 38 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national laying - hen inventory index is 110.89 (with 2015 as 100), down 1.46; the national eliminated laying - hen index is 108.68 (with 2015 as 100), up 11.92; the average price of egg - chicken chicks in the main production areas is 3.9 yuan/chick, unchanged; the national new - chick index is 106.78 (with 2015 as 100), down 31.9; the average price of egg - chicken compound feed is 2.72 yuan/kg, unchanged; the breeding profit of egg - chickens is - 0.69 yuan/hen, down 0.11 yuan; the average price of eliminated chickens in the main production areas is 9.2 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan; the age of eliminated chickens is 506 days, down 4 days [2]. Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.61 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.37 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.14 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.17 days, down 0.1 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.05 days, down 0.09 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12,792.51 tons, down 110.81 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales area is 7,606 tons, down 331 tons [2]. Industry News - The average egg price in Shandong, the main production area, is 5.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average egg price in Hebei is 5.19 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average egg price in Guangdong is 6.40 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average egg price in Beijing is 5.60 yuan/kg, unchanged. The current laying - hen inventory is at a high level, the pressure of newly - laid eggs from the previously replenished laying hens is large, and the egg supply is relatively sufficient [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of container shipping index (European line) futures varied on Wednesday. The main contract EC2510 rose 1.4%, while the far - month contracts had a decline of -1% to -2%. The recent rebound of the spot index indicates that the price increase by leading shipping companies is likely to be implemented, reducing market concerns about peak - season freight rates. With the change of the main contract, the basis repair logic drove the sharp rise of near - month contracts. However, various economic data in the US suggest future economic activities may face greater challenges, and the container shipping index (European line) has weak demand expectations and large price fluctuations. But the rapid rebound of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures price to rise in the short term. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC2510 main contract closed at 2153.00, up 62.3; EC2508 - EC2510 spread was 554.90, up 84.50; EC2508 - EC2512 spread was 394.00, up 104.00; EC contract basis was 268.94, down 27.00; EC main contract open interest was 18747, down 2808 [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) was 2421.94, up 163.90; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) was 1266.59, down 291.18; SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1733.29, down 30.20; CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1313.70, down 29.29; CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1726.41, up 32.11; Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 1866.00, down 83.00; Panama Freight Index (daily) was 1990.00, down 41.00; average charter price of Panama - type ships was 14883.00, up 422.00; average charter price of Cape - type ships was 16909.00, up 914.00 [1] 3.3 Economic News - China's GDP in the first half of the year was 66.05 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. Fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8%, and real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 4.8% [1] - The US and Indonesia reached an agreement. Indonesia will buy US energy worth $15 billion, US agricultural products worth $4.5 billion and 50 Boeing aircraft. The US will impose a 19% tariff on all Indonesian imports, and US exports to Indonesia will enjoy duty - free and non - tariff barrier treatment. The original plan was to impose a 32% tariff on Indonesia starting from August 1 [1] - The EU has no intention to take any trade counter - measures before August 1. If trade negotiations with the US fail, the implementation of counter - measures may be postponed to August 6 [1] 3.4 Economic Indicators in the US - The US S&P Global Composite PMI index in June dropped slightly from 53 in May to 52.8. Price pressure increased significantly. In May, core PCE increased by 2.7% year - on - year, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 2.6%. Real personal consumption expenditure decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, the largest decline since the beginning of the year. Personal income decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, the largest decline since 2021 [1] 3.5 Eurozone Economic Situation - The German ZEW economic sentiment index reached a three - year high. The CPI in May was stable at 2.3%, but industrial output decreased by 2.4% month - on - month, and the manufacturing industry was still under pressure [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The mainstream positions increasing support the iron ore price to rise, but the adjustment of steel prices may affect the rebound space of iron ore prices. It is recommended to conduct intraday short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 773 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the position volume is 690,377 lots, up 21,689 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread is 31.5 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 5,148 lots, up 15,032 lots. The DCE warehouse receipt is 3,000 lots, down 100 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract's quote at 15:00 is 99.85 US dollars/ton, up 0.93 US dollars [2] 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 821 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines is 798 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 703 yuan/dry ton, unchanged. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 25 yuan, down 3 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 98.15 US dollars/ton, down 0.45 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.40, down 0.02. The estimated import cost is 808 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The weekly shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil is 2,987.10 tons, down 7.80 tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2,883.20 tons, up 347.70 tons. The weekly inventory at 47 ports is 14,346.89 tons, down 139.01 tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills is 8,979.64 tons, up 61.07 tons. The monthly import volume of iron ore is 10,594.80 tons, up 781.80 tons. The available days of iron ore are 21 days, up 3 days. The daily output of 266 mines is 39.68 tons, down 0.72 tons; the operating rate is 62.83%, down 1.57%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines is 50.72 tons, down 1.59 tons. The BDI index is 1,783, up 120. The freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 20.18 US dollars/ton, up 0.85 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 8.23 US dollars/ton, up 0.48 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.13%, down 0.31%; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 89.87%, down 0.40%. The monthly domestic crude steel output is 8,318 tons, down 337 tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.56%, down 0.37%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.43%, up 0.07%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.34%, up 4.17%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.45%, up 2.22% [2] Industry News - From July 7th to July 13th, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,393.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 123.8 tons, with continuous inventory accumulation. From July 7th to July 13th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,883.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 347.7 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,662.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 178.2 tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,147.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 264.1 tons. The I2509 contract increased in position and rose on Wednesday. The US Treasury Secretary said there is no need to worry about the expiration date of the suspension of additional tariffs between the US and China, and the two sides' negotiations are in a "good situation", expecting talks in the next few weeks. The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased while the arrival volume increased, and the port inventory in China changed from increasing to decreasing. The blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of steel mills continued to decline slightly, but the molten iron output remained around 2.4 million tons, and the demand for molten iron still provided support [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not contain information about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, the overall production of polysilicon enterprises increases, with some enterprises increasing production while others undergoing maintenance, and self - disciplined production cuts do not significantly affect capacity fluctuations [2] - On the demand side, affected by the anti - involution meeting, production capacity declines significantly, but prices gradually recover. Downstream photovoltaic module production scheduling has been adjusted down, and demand weakens marginally. Silicon wafer enterprises are expected to end the decline in overall production as profits stabilize, and cell manufacturers also have production cut plans [2] - Overall, the demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. Although the polysilicon price increase last week gave most manufacturers a chance to turn losses into profits, this is not normal, and most manufacturers will start a new round of hedging. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level [2] - Polysilicon continues to rise today, with the overall open interest starting to decline and trading volume slowing down. The short - term speculative market is expected to end, and it is advisable to buy put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 42,945 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 475 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract is 71,783 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1,962 lots; the price difference between August - September polysilicon is 350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 34,260 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 575 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 45,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the basis of polysilicon is 3,030 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 705 yuan/ton; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.72 US dollars/kg [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,685 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; industrial silicon production is 305,200 tons per month, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Polysilicon production is 95,000 tons per month, a month - on - month decrease of 1,000 tons; the import volume of polysilicon is 793 tons per month, a month - on - month decrease of 161 tons; the spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.04 US dollars/kg per week, a week - on - week increase of 0.14 US dollars/kg; the average import price of polysilicon in China is 2,190 US dollars/ton per month, a month - on - month decrease of 140 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Solar cell production is 7.0569 million kilowatts per month, a month - on - month decrease of 135,900 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 RMB/W; the export volume of photovoltaic modules is 103,399,980 units per month, a month - on - month increase of 19,610,660 units; the import volume of photovoltaic modules is 12,098,490 units per month, a month - on - month decrease of 8,021,950 units; the average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.33 US dollars per unit, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 US dollars per unit [2] 3.6 Industry News - Qingdao aims to build a 10 - million - kilowatt - level offshore new energy base by 2030, including developing offshore wind power and photovoltaic projects and promoting the development of the hydrogen energy industry [2] - At the State Council Information Office press conference, it was mentioned that consumption policies will continue to be strengthened in the second half of the year, and prices will rise moderately at a low level [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the supply - demand weakness of LLDPE persists, and L2509 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. The daily K - line should pay attention to the support around 7160 and the pressure around 7290 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract is 7214 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the 1 - month contract is 7225 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the 5 - month contract is 7200 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the 9 - month contract is 7214 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The trading volume is 204,281 lots, down 103,204 lots, and the open interest is 436,856 lots, up 2,991 lots. The spread between the 1 - month and 5 - month contracts is 25 yuan, unchanged. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 358,600 lots, up 515 lots; the short position is 402,176 lots, down 5,715 lots; the net long position is - 43,576 lots, up 6,230 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7206.09 yuan/ton, down 23.91 yuan; in East China is 7319.02 yuan/ton, down 13.17 yuan. The basis is - 7.91 yuan, down 16.91 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 62.88 US dollars/barrel, down 1.48 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 583.75 US dollars/ton, down 13.25 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia is 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate is 77.79%, down 1.67 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging film is 48.07%, down 0.37 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes is 28%, unchanged; the operating rate of PE agricultural film is 12.63%, up 0.54 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 11.71%, down 1.17 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 12.54%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 12.01%, down 1 percentage point; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 12.02%, down 0.98 percentage points [2] Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, China's polyethylene output was 605,900 tons, a 2.10% decrease from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 77.79%, a 1.67 - percentage - point decrease. The average operating rate of polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.18% from the previous period. As of July 16th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 529,300 tons, a 7.34% increase; as of July 11th, the social sample warehouse inventory was 536,600 tons, a 3.68% increase [2] Outlook - In July, there are many PE maintenance devices. This week, the devices of Sinopec Hubei and Jilin Petrochemical are shut down for maintenance, and the device of Shanghai Petrochemical is planned to restart. It is expected that the output and capacity utilization rate will decline. New devices of ExxonMobil and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical are expected to be put into production this month, which may increase the industry supply pressure in the long - term. The downstream off - season continues, the terminal stocking willingness is low, and the downstream operating rate is expected to maintain a narrow downward trend. Recently, international oil prices have fallen. Overall, the short - term supply - demand weakness of LLDPE continues [2]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料 ，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠 ，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证 ，据此投资，责 任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议 ，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况 。本报告版权仅为我公司所有 ，未经书面许 可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院 ，且不得对本报告 进行有悖原意的引用 、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,750.00 | -34.00↓ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,408.00 | -86.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 563,721.00 | -207.00↓ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 400,568.00 | -2148.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -49 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost factors support the current price of cis - butadiene rubber, but downstream procurement remains cautious, and shipping resistance may increase. Short - term inventory levels are expected to increase slightly. - The capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises varied last week. The resumption of production of semi - steel tire enterprises after early - month maintenance boosted the overall capacity utilization rate, while the maintenance of some all - steel tire enterprises dragged down its capacity utilization rate. This week, the capacity utilization rate still has room for improvement, which will drive the overall tire enterprise capacity utilization rate. - The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,300 - 11,800 in the short term. [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,525 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 20,703 lots, down 2,036 lots. - The 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber was 75 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2,100 tons, unchanged. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from various petrochemical companies in different regions decreased by 40 - 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 75 yuan/ton, down 0.46 yuan/ton. - The market price of butadiene in Shandong was down. The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, Northeast Asian ethylene, and CFR Japan naphtha changed, with Brent down 0.5 dollars/barrel, WTI unchanged, Northeast Asian ethylene unchanged, and CFR Japan naphtha down 13.25 dollars/ton. The CFR China butadiene price was 1,070 dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 147,800 tons, unchanged, and the capacity utilization rate was 68.89%, down 2.02 percentage points. - The port inventory of butadiene was 23,600 tons, up 1,270 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 46.14%, up 1.17 percentage points. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, down 16,900 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate was 65.54%, down 1.44 percentage points. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 526 yuan/ton, down 362 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,800 tons, down 400 tons. The manufacturer's inventory was 26,500 tons, up 150 tons, and the trader's inventory was 6,270 tons, down 530 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 72.92%, up 2.51 percentage points, and that of all - steel tires was 64.56%, up 0.81 percentage points. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces, and that of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.67 days, up 0.22 days, and those of semi - steel tires were 45.76 days, down 0.72 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 10, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,800 tons, down 0.04 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. - As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale basis), a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June, the cumulative sales were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6%. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost support for stainless steel has weakened due to the increase in nickel supply cost and the decline in ferronickel prices. The supply side is facing cost - upside - down pressure, leading to increased production cuts by steel mills. Domestic anti - involution measures may help alleviate the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to further decline. On the demand side, it is the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty, export demand pressure, and hesitant downstream buyers. Domestic inventory de - stocking is not satisfactory, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking performance after production cuts. Technically, there is a reduction in positions and differences between long and short positions, and the MA10 support level should be monitored. It is expected that the price will fluctuate and adjust in the short term. The recommended operation is to wait and see [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,670 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spread between the 08 - 09 contracts is 25 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,161 lots, down 595 lots; the main contract position is 100,817 lots, up 46,026 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 110,872 tons, down 119 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 250 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 23,900 metal tons, up 2,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, down 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 848,200 tons, up 31,300 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,100 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, down 39,600 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,400 tons, up 18,500 tons. The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, down 200 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 24,600 units, down 10,400 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, down 1,000 units [2] Industry News - The US CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 2.4%; the month - on - month increase was 0.3%, in line with expectations, and the previous value was 0.1%. The increase was mainly due to rising energy prices. The EU Trade Commissioner said that although the negotiations are quite close in principle, there are still huge differences in some key areas. The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing, indicating that China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The domestic daily urea production has increased due to the resumption of previously overhauled plants, and the short - term urea operating rate may remain high because of substantial production profits [2]. - The country is gradually entering the off - season of agricultural demand, with only a small amount of demand for top - dressing in some local areas. The compound fertilizer enterprises have good pre - sales for the autumn season, leading to an increase in their operating rate and procurement; the melamine operating rate has rebounded, but weak downstream demand may restrict its further increase [2]. - Recent urea export orders are still being executed, and the inventory of some urea enterprises is decreasing rapidly. Although local inventories vary, the overall inventory is mainly decreasing. However, the current urea enterprise inventory is much higher than the same period in previous years. As the increase in agricultural demand decreases and the execution of previous export orders enters the later stage, the overall inventory reduction speed of urea may slow down [2]. - It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1720 - 1770 yuan/ton [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1733 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is 23 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 197,633 lots, a decrease of 3,755 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 20,853, an increase of 3,554 [2]. - The number of Zhengzhou urea exchange warehouse receipts is 2,630, unchanged [2]. 2. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui have all decreased, with decreases ranging from 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 57 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton [2]. - FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remain unchanged at 427.5 dollars/ton and 410 dollars/ton respectively [2]. 3. Industry Situation - Port inventory is 48.9 million tons, an increase of 4.9 million tons; enterprise inventory is 96.77 million tons, a decrease of 5.08 million tons [2]. - The urea enterprise operating rate is 85.26%, an increase of 0.94%; the daily urea production is 197,400 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons [2]. - The urea export volume is 0, unchanged; the monthly urea output is 6,031,340 tons, a decrease of 261,890 tons [2]. 4. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 29.83%, an increase of 0.58%; the melamine operating rate is 62.56%, a decrease of 0.43% [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 134 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with purchased urea is - 646 yuan/ton, a decrease of 216 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.1682 billion tons, a decrease of 640,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons [2]. 5. Industry News - As of July 16, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 895,500 tons, a decrease of 72,200 tons from last week, a 7.46% decrease [2]. - As of July 10, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 489,000 tons, an increase of 49,000 tons from last week, an 11.14% increase [2]. - As of July 10, the Chinese urea output is 1.3818 million tons, an increase of 1.53 tons from last week, a 1.12% increase; the average daily output is 197,400 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week. The capacity utilization rate is 85.26%, an increase of 0.94% [2]. 6. Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].