Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the inventory level of inland methanol enterprises decreased due to pre - National Day holiday stocking by middle and downstream industries and increased external procurement by some olefin enterprises in Inner Mongolia. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and it is expected to keep the accumulation rhythm this week. The import demand may be stable, and the specific accumulation amplitude depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels. The start - up rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin is expected to rise after hedging. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2410 in the short term [3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2375 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 22 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 805,395 lots, an increase of 21,504 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 148,677 lots, a decrease of 36,491 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 16,131, unchanged [3] 2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2295 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2135 yuan/ton, up 17.5 yuan. The East - West price difference is 160 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 80 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 265 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars; in Southeast Asia, it is 326 dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 293 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is - 61 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.04 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.08 dollars [3] 4. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 108.95 tons, up 8.72 tons; at South China ports, it is 46.08 tons, up 3.54 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 1.19 yuan/ton, down 15.09 yuan. The monthly import volume is 110.27 tons, down 11.75 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 342,600 tons, up 1500 tons. The methanol enterprise start - up rate is 84.58%, down 0.26% [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of formaldehyde is 43.13%, up 5.4%; dimethyl ether is 4.86%, up 0.03%; acetic acid is 83.11%, down 1.13%; MTBE is 61.69%, down 0.53%; olefins is 81.57%, down 3.15%. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefin is - 955 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan [3] 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 12.72%, up 0.38%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.57%, down 0.88%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 15.54%, up 0.06%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 15.55%, up 0.07% [3] 7. Industry News - As of September 10, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 34.26 tons, down 0.45 tons (1.31% MoM); the orders to be delivered were 25.07 tons, up 0.94 tons (3.91% MoM). The total port inventory was 155.03 tons, up 12.26 tons. As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 82.66%, down 3.16% [3]

红枣产业日报 2025-09-16 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 、观望后市。供需矛盾尚未得到有效缓解，市场仍处于动态平衡中寻求方向的状态。操作上，建议短期暂 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 且观望。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 10805 | -60 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 141091 | -11 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | -331 ...

局多头。操作上建议，纯碱主力短期逢低布局多单，注意操作风险。玻璃方面，供应端：需求端玻璃产线 数据来源于第三方，仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 冷修数量不变，整体产量小幅抬升，整体产量还在底部，刚需生产迹象明显，利润回升，主要来自于现货 研究员: 黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-09-16 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1339 | 环比 数据指标 31 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1237 | 环比 30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 102 1280068 | 1 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) -61404 纯碱前20名净持仓 | 1338629 -284700 | -101682 -2128 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -154749 | 61877 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 6250 | -666 | | | 玻璃交易所仓 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The stock index still has long - term upward potential, but poor economic data exerts short - term pressure on the market. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Prices - IF主力合约（2509）price is 4516.8, down 11.2; IH主力合约（2509）is 2950.6, down 10.6; IC主力合约（2509）is 7165.2, up 39.4; IM主力合约（2509）is 7462.0, up 75.6 [2] - IF次主力合约（2512）price is 4489.2, down 7.2; IH次主力合约（2512）is 2951.6, down 10.8; IC次主力合约（2512）is 6996.8, up 45.4; IM次主力合约（2512）is 7242.4, up 81.0 [2] 3.2 Futures Price Spreads - IF - IH当月合约价差is 1566.2, up 0.8; IC - IF当月合约价差is 2648.4, up 62.0; IM - IC当月合约价差is 296.8, up 42.4; IC - IH当月合约价差is 4214.6, up 62.8; IM - IF当月合约价差is 2945.2, up 104.4; IM - IH当月合约价差is 4511.4, up 105.2 [2] - IF当季 - 当月is - 27.6, up 3.2; IF下季 - 当月is - 50.8, up 6.8; IH当季 - 当月is 1.0, up 0.8; IH下季 - 当月is 4.4, up 2.8; IC当季 - 当月is - 168.4, up 6.4; IC下季 - 当月is - 333.2, up 0.8; IM当季 - 当月is - 219.6, up 5.8; IM下季 - 当月is - 428, up 5.8 [2] 3.3 Futures Net Positions - IF前20名净持仓is - 28,193.00, down 426.0; IH前20名净持仓is - 17,632.00, down 264.0; IC前20名净持仓is - 27,595.00, up 566.0; IM前20名净持仓is - 45,328.00, down 2252.0 [2] 3.4 Spot Prices and Basis - 沪深300price is 4523.34, down 9.7; IF主力合约基差is - 6.5, down 1.3; 上证50price is 2,947.8, down 14.8; IH主力合约基差is 2.8, up 3.0; 中证500price is 7,191.0, up 53.6; IC主力合约基差is - 25.8, down 2.6; 中证1000price is 7,483.6, up 68.1; IM主力合约基差is - 21.6, up 25.3 [2] 3.5 Market Sentiment - A股成交额（日，亿元）is 23,670.69, up 638.89; 两融余额（前一交易日，亿元）is 23,699.99, up 184.29; 北向成交合计（前一交易日，亿元）is 2873.06, down 239.77; 逆回购（到期量，操作量，亿元）is - 2470.0, up 2870.0; 主力资金（昨日，今日，亿元）is - 646.67, down 449.20; 上涨股票比例（日，%）is 66.84, up 31.56; Shibor（日，%）is 1.437, up 0.029; IO平值看涨期权收盘价（2509）is 45.60, down 8.00; IO平值看涨期权隐含波动率（%）is 17.78, up 1.28; IO平值看跌期权收盘价（2509）is 27.00, up 1.00; IO平值看跌期权隐含波动率（%）is 17.78, up 1.20; 沪深300指数20日波动率（%）is 19.75, down 0.07; 成交量PCR（%）is 62.89, up 7.92; 持仓量PCR（%）is 80.25, down 2.60 [2] 3.6 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - 全部A股is 6.70, up 2.10; 技术面is 6.70, up 3.20; 资金面is 6.60, up 0.90 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In August, the year - on - year actual growth of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.2%, expected to be 5.7%, and the previous value was 5.7%. From a month - on - month perspective, it increased by 0.37% [2] - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, expected to be 3.8%, and the previous value was 3.7%. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 323906 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6% [2] - From January to August 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. From a month - on - month perspective, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in August decreased by 0.20% [2] - From January to August, China's real estate development investment was 60309 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 55015 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%, among which the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 7.0%; the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 64318 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. In August, the real estate development climate index was 93.05 [2] - In August, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, the same as the same month last year [2] - A - share major indexes closed generally higher. The three major indexes opened higher in the morning and showed wide - range fluctuations. Small and medium - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.45%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.68%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased slightly. More than 3600 stocks in the whole market rose. Most industry sectors rose, with the comprehensive, computer, and machinery equipment sectors leading the gains, and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and banking sectors leading the losses [2] - The Fed will hold an interest - rate meeting on September 16 - 17, Eastern Time. Affected by the weakening labor market, the market has fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September, and the external environmental constraints faced by A - shares are loosening [2] - Domestically, in terms of the economic fundamentals, in August, the growth rates of domestic social retail, fixed - asset investment, imports and exports, and the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size all declined significantly compared with the previous values and were weaker than market expectations. The real estate market also showed an accelerating weakening trend. In terms of financial data, at the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed significantly, reaching the lowest value since June 2021, which may reflect the continuous improvement of residents' consumption willingness. In the trade sector, China and the US will hold talks on economic and trade issues in Madrid, Spain, from September 14 to 17 [2] 3.8 Key Data to Focus On - September 16, 20:30: US import and export price indexes, retail sales, and core retail sales for August [3] - September 18, 2:00: Fed interest - rate decision [3] - September 18, 19:00: Bank of England interest - rate decision [3] - September 19, 10:47: Bank of Japan interest - rate decision [3]

场倾向，期价也有所回落，中长期维持偏空思路。 | | 当前北方原料玉米处于新陈交替供应市场阶段，部分企业因原料玉米供应不足，新增检修，同时目前玉米淀粉市场行情偏弱，企业 | | --- | --- | | 观点总结（ | 仍处于亏损状态，行业开机率整体维持偏低位置运行。供应压力偏弱，叠加需求略有好转，使得库存压力有所下滑。截至9月10日 | | 淀粉） | ，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量122.6万吨，较上周下降3.90万吨，周降幅3.08%，月降幅6.98%；年同比增幅40.27%。不过， | | 重点关注 | 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况 | | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | 行业库存仍然偏高，且木薯淀粉和小麦淀粉替代优势仍然较好，继续挤压玉米淀粉市场需求。盘面来看，受玉米回落影响，近日淀 | 粉同步走弱，且受自身需求不佳影响，总体走势弱于玉米。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA report for 2025/26 shows that the estimated US soybean yield per acre is slightly lower than last month but higher than analysts' expectations, with increased production and ending stocks, which is generally bearish. In the Canadian market, the 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to increase, while exports are expected to decline. For domestic rapeseed meal, the short - term supply pressure is reduced due to less near - month arrivals, and the demand is seasonally increasing, but the substitution of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The rapeseed meal market is expected to be volatile. For domestic rapeseed oil, the overall supply and demand is loose, but the low oil mill operating rate and limited near - month purchases ease the supply pressure, and the market trend is relatively strong [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 10,053 yuan/ton, up 153 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal is 2,518 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 632.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 4.5 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed is 5,330 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan [2] - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 467 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 121 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Open interest: The open interest of the main rapeseed oil contract is 333,040 lots; the open interest of the main rapeseed meal contract is 376,582 lots, down 17,074 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long positions of rapeseed oil are 26,789 lots, up 8,398 lots; the net long positions of rapeseed meal are - 14,068 lots, up 15,904 lots [2] - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 8,202, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 10,214, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,940 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,620 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,400 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Average price and import cost: The average price of rapeseed oil is 10,005 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 7,899.85 yuan/ton, down 50.05 yuan [2] - Basis and price spreads: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 40 yuan/ton, down 143 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 102 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,340 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 620 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 410 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual rapeseed production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged; the total rapeseed import volume is 17.6 tons, down 0.85 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 tons, up 4 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal is 27.03 tons, up 7.56 tons [2] - Inventory and operating rate: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 10 tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 12.79%, down 0.27 percentage points; the imported rapeseed crushing profit is 763 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 8.65 tons, down 1.05 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, down 0.05 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 52.12 tons, down 1.08 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 30 tons, down 1.51 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 4.1 tons, down 0.45 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 20 tons, down 1.3 tons [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.03 tons, up 0.77 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.74 tons, down 0.15 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2,827.3 tons, down 110.4 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 tons, up 41.8 tons [2] - Consumption: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 4,504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 18.48%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 18.48%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.49%, down 0.3 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.49%, down 0.3 percentage points [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 15.96%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 22.2%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 7.91%, up 0.42 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 12.74%, down 0.48 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Canadian rapeseed futures market on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed lower on Monday. The benchmark contract fell 1.16% due to the rapid progress of rapeseed harvesting in the prairie region and weak rapeseed exports. The decline in the external vegetable oil market also exerted downward pressure [2] - The USDA report shows that the estimated US soybean yield per acre in 2025/26 is 53.5 bushels, with increased production and ending stocks. The report is generally bearish [2] - The USDA report also shows that the Canadian rapeseed production in 2025/26 is expected to increase by 750,000 tons to 20 million tons, exports are expected to decrease by 900,000 tons to 6.7 million tons, domestic consumption is expected to increase by 500,000 tons to 12 million tons, and ending stocks are expected to increase by 1.34 million tons to 2.954 million tons [2] 3.8 Rapeseed Meal View Summary - Bullish factors: Near - month rapeseed arrivals are scarce, reducing supply pressure. The aquaculture season boosts the seasonal demand for rapeseed meal. The implementation of temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weakens the long - term supply [2] - Bearish factors: The good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The Canadian Minister of Agriculture is considering measures to avoid Chinese tariffs on Canadian rapeseed, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed is being realized [2] - Market trend: The rapeseed meal market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and short - term trading is recommended [2] 3.9 Rapeseed Oil View Summary - Bullish factors: The low operating rate of oil mills eases the production pressure of rapeseed oil. Near - month rapeseed purchases are limited, reducing supply pressure. The Ministry of Commerce has extended the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, restricting purchases [2] - Bearish factors: The boost from the start of the school term to terminal consumption is limited, and the domestic vegetable oil supply and demand is still loose [2] - Market trend: The rapeseed oil market has a relatively strong trend, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the reduction in supply is gradually reflected. After the supply prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene are lowered, the spot quotations gradually decline, which may drive some downstream enterprises to gradually stock up, and the inventories of production enterprises and trade may decrease slightly. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly last week, and most enterprises are expected to maintain the current production schedule this week, with the overall capacity utilization rate fluctuating slightly. The short - term price of the br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,500 - 12,000 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the position of the main contract is 64,216, an increase of 45,431; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,970 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber is 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is 67.44 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.45 US dollars; WTI crude oil is 63.3 US dollars/barrel. Naphtha CFR Japan is 608.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 850 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,090 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the market price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. The weekly capacity of butadiene is 151,200 tons, unchanged; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.33%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 25,600 tons, a decrease of 5,350 tons. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.64%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points [2] 3.4 Production and Inventory of Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 0.65 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.48%, a decrease of 2.68 percentage points; the weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 509 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 34,500 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,300 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 8,210 tons, an increase of 950 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.46%, an increase of 5.99 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.59%, an increase of 5.81 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 38.83 days, a decrease of 0.05 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.94 days, an increase of 0.09 days [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of September 11, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 34,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,600 tons, or 8.15%. As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a week - on - week increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a week - on - week increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points. Most tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month have resumed normal operations, driving the increase in capacity utilization. In August 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber output was 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. Although some production facilities had short - term maintenance, the overall supply was sufficient, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises increased [2]

单有所释放；同时持货商出货意愿较高，国内市场保持去库趋势，现货升水持稳。技术面，持仓减量价格 回调，多空交投分歧，关注MA5支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，或逢回调轻仓做多。 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 免责声明 不锈钢产业日报 2025-09-16 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12970 | -100 10-11月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -115 | -5 -3043 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -16843 | -1804 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 130786 | | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 95745 | -604 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13850 | 50 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9600 | 0 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - season, and reserve demand has not started significantly. The domestic market trading activity is low, providing limited support to the urea market. Industrial demand improvement is less than expected. Although the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers has rebounded month - on - month, enterprises mainly produce based on sales, and the short - term adjustment of the start - up rate is expected to be limited. Last week, enterprise inventories varied, but overall inventory increased. Affected by the Indian tender and export policies, urea exports continued to accelerate. Some enterprises' inventories decreased due to fulfilling export orders, while those without exports saw slow inventory growth due to the slow progress of domestic demand. Due to the low domestic market trading sentiment, the urea shipment speed is affected, and short - term inventory still has a slight upward trend. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1700 in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1686 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 51 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 277334 lots, down 7644 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 43212; the exchange warehouse receipt is 8279 pieces, down 334 pieces [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1670 yuan/ton (unchanged), 1640 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), 1640 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), 1650 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton), and 1650 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively. The main contract basis is - 36 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. FOB Baltic is 396.5 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and FOB China main port is 423.5 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory is 54.94 million tons, down 7.15 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 113.27 million tons, up 3.77 million tons. The urea enterprise start - up rate is 79.34%, up 1.24%; the daily urea output is 185600 tons, up 2900 tons. The urea export volume is 57 million tons, up 50%; the monthly output is 5928680 tons, down 123400 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer start - up rate is 37.82%, up 4.74%; the melamine start - up rate is 55.38%, down 3.6%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 165 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 16 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 531.33 million tons, up 109.21 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 27500 tons, down 800 tons [2] Industry News - As of September 10, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 113.27 million tons, up 3.77 million tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. As of September 11, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 54.94 million tons, down 7.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.52%. As of September 11, some recently shut - down urea production devices in China have resumed, and the domestic daily urea output has increased. This week, it is expected that 1 enterprise will plan to shut down and 5 - 6 shut - down enterprises will resume production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the output may increase [2] Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to the Longzhong enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and start - up rate on Thursday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's supply is gradually increasing, with strong raw material purchase prices due to high demand from processing plants. In Hainan, local processing plants' enthusiasm for high - priced raw material procurement is average because of orders and profit performance, and new rubber supply growth is slow. [2] - Qingdao's natural rubber inventory decreased, with a larger - than - expected decline in bonded warehouses and a slight increase in general trade warehouses. As downstream businesses mainly replenish standard rubber, bonded warehouse inventories are expected to continue decreasing. [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly. It is expected that most enterprises will maintain their current production schedules this week to stock up for the "National Day" holiday and fill previous order gaps, with overall capacity utilization fluctuating slightly. [2] - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,850 - 16,300 in the short - term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12,600 - 13,000 in the short - term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 16,040 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 45 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,715 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the 10 - 11 spread was 5 yuan/ton. [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,325 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 148,333 lots, up 739 lots; that of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 65,091 lots, down 3,874 lots. [2] - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber were - 28,766 lots, down 4,801 lots; those of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber were - 13,669 lots, down 343 lots. [2] - Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 152,250 tons, up 2,930 tons; 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 45,561 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,150 yuan/ton, down 605 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,870 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,870 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,150 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,100 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan. [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 890 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 845 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,287 yuan/ton, up 148 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 572 yuan/ton, up 143 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai smoked sheets was 60.06 Thai baht/kg, down 0.11 Thai baht; the price of Thai rubber sheets was 57.8 Thai baht/kg, down 0.5 Thai baht. [2] - The price of Thai rubber latex was 56.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the price of Thai cup lump was 51 Thai baht/kg, down 0.7 Thai baht. [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 158.6 US dollars/ton, down 52.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 17 US dollars/ton, down 31.4 US dollars. [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 121,900 tons, up 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 259,500 tons, down 21,300 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.59%, up 5.81 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.46%, up 5.99 percentage points. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 38.83 days, down 0.05 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.94 days, up 0.09 days. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces. [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 16.92%, up 0.38 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 19.41%, up 0.25 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.72%, up 0.37 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.73%, up 0.39 percentage points. [2] 3.6 Industry News - From September 14th to September 20th, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared to the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, heavy rainfall areas were mainly in southern Thailand and southwestern Cambodia, which would have a greater impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, heavy rainfall areas were mainly in central and southeastern Indonesia, and the impact on tapping was reduced. [2] - As of September 14th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 586,600 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons or 0.95% from the previous period. Bonded area inventory was 66,200 tons, a decrease of 8.32%; general trade inventory was 520,400 tons, an increase of 0.07%. [2] - As of September 11th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a month - on - month increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a month - on - month increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points. [2]