1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the relatively loose supply and weak downstream demand, the inventory of liquid caustic soda plants has accumulated. Affected by the rebound of caustic soda and liquid chlorine prices, the profits of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises have recovered. The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda is expected to rise slightly this week. In December, caustic soda is expected to be in a high - supply situation. The imbalance between supply and demand in the alumina industry is expected to intensify, but the short - term negative factors for caustic soda cannot be realized. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement. There is a game between the strong expectation and weak reality of caustic soda, and SH2603 is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with the range around 2100 - 2300 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the caustic soda main contract was 2219 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 38 yuan/ton; the position of the caustic soda main contract was 164,939 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 1,519 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures contracts was - 15,233 lots, a month - on - month increase of 2,243 lots; the trading volume of the caustic soda main contract was 343,667 lots, a month - on - month increase of 19,395 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2138 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the closing price of the May contract was 2324 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton month - on - month [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ionic membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 720 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the price in Jiangsu was 820 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2250 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change, and the basis of caustic soda was 31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 38 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 247.5 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the mainstream price in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The price of steam coal was 644 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 75.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.5 yuan/ton; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 175 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12,900 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the spot price of alumina was 2,665 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From December 12th to 18th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. From December 13th to 19th, the alumina operating rate decreased by 1.11% month - on - month to 85%. From December 12th to 18th, the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 89.62%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.69% month - on - month to 62.06%. As of December 18th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 464,700 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 1.66% and a year - on - year increase of 52.34%. From December 11th to 18th, the weekly average gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 216 yuan/ton, an increase from the previous week [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. In the short - term, it may maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US [2]. - The short - term decline of rapeseed oil may slow down. The current supply of rapeseed oil is tight, but the long - term supply pressure increases, and the demand remains mainly for rigid needs [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) is 8,847 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) is 2,349 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. - The rapeseed oil monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 1 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 54 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - The open interest of the main contract for rapeseed oil is 204,202 lots, up 4,135 lots; the open interest of the main contract for rapeseed meal is 620,191 lots, up 15,829 lots [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil is - 28,231 lots, up 478 lots; for rapeseed meal is - 49,792 lots, up 7,211 lots [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3,876, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged [2]. - The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) is 613.7 Canadian dollars/ton, up 19.2 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) is 5,479 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,310 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the oil - meal ratio is 3.75, down 0.04 [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil is 9,428.75 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed is 7,533.28 yuan/ton, up 238.59 yuan [2]. - The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 446 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 61 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. - The spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,000 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,370 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1,040 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 690 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 92.27 million tons, up 1.31 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - The total rapeseed import volume for the current month is 0 tons, down 115,300 tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 564 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 10,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the current month is 140,000 tons, down 20,000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal for the current month is 220,600 tons, up 62,900 tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 5,000 tons, down 1,500 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas is 0 tons, down 20 tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 298,000 tons, down 24,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 179,100 tons, down 7,000 tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 4,000 tons, down 1,500 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 240,000 tons, down 8,000 tons [2]. - The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 4,800 tons, down 4,200 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 605.7 billion yuan, up 85.8 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 16.99%, up 0.34%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 16.98%, up 0.33% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.68%, down 0.14%; the 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.61%, down 0.23% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.14%, down 0.35%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.13%, down 0.39% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 15.94%, up 1.21%; the 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 14.94%, up 0.21% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - On December 22 (Monday), ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, ending six consecutive trading days of decline. The most actively traded March rapeseed futures contract rose 18.90 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 612.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - During the US soybean export season, the short - term supply is abundant, and Brazil's soybean harvest is expected to be high. The US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market. The market is concerned about China's soybean purchases from the US [2]. - Indonesia has launched a road test of B50 biodiesel two weeks ago, and the test is expected to take about six months. The mandatory use policy of B50 biodiesel is likely to be officially implemented in the second half of 2026 [2]. 3.9 Key Points of Attention - The operating rate of rapeseed oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in each region reported by Myagric on Monday, and the development of China - Canada trade relations [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Shanghai Zinc Industry Daily Report 2025-12-23 [2] - Researcher: Chen Sijia [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Certificate: F03118799 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0022803 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - It is expected that Shanghai zinc will be adjusted strongly. Attention should be paid to the support at 23,000 and the upper level at 23,400 [4]. - The upstream zinc ore import volume has declined, and the losses of Chinese imported zinc concentrates have widened. The domestic refinery's raw material winter reserve has started, and it prefers to purchase domestic zinc concentrates. However, the competition among refineries to purchase domestic ores has increased, and the domestic and foreign processing fees have dropped significantly. The profits of domestic refineries have shrunk, and the output is expected to decline significantly. Recently, the price of LME zinc has corrected, the Shanghai-London ratio has rebounded, and the export window may be closed again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually turning to the off-season, the real estate sector is a drag, the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while the policy support in the automotive and other fields brings some bright spots. The downstream market mainly purchases on demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has been oscillating and adjusting, the trading is dull, the spot premium is high and stable, the domestic inventory has increased slightly, the LME zinc inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has been significantly reduced [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - Shanghai Zinc Main Contract Closing Price: 23,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan [3]. - LME Three-Month Zinc Quote: 3,078 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.5 US dollars [3]. - Shanghai Zinc Total Open Interest: 198,719 lots, an increase of 3,609 lots [3]. - Shanghai Zinc Top 20 Net Open Interest: 3,279 lots, an increase of 1,678 lots [3]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange Inventory: 76,017 tons, a decrease of 4,560 tons [3]. - LME Inventory: 99,250 tons, a decrease of 650 tons [3]. 2. Spot Market - Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network 0 Zinc Spot Price: 23,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan [3]. - Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market 1 Zinc Spot Price: 22,970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan [3]. - ZN Main Contract Basis: 0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan [3]. - LME Zinc Premium (0 - 3): -33.43 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.82 US dollars [3]. - Kunming 50% Zinc Concentrate Factory Price: 20,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 870 yuan [3]. - Shanghai 85% - 86% Broken Zinc Price: 16,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - WBMS: Zinc Supply and Demand Balance: -35,700 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons [3]. - ILZSG: Zinc Supply and Demand Balance: 20,300 tons, a decrease of 27,600 tons [3]. - ILZSG: Global Zinc Mine Production: 1.0666 million tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons [3]. - Domestic Refined Zinc Production: 665,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons [3]. - Zinc Ore Import Volume: 340,900 tons, a decrease of 164,500 tons [3]. 4. Industry Situation - Refined Zinc Import Volume: 18,836.76 tons, a decrease of 3,840.75 tons [3]. - Refined Zinc Export Volume: 8,518.67 tons, an increase of 6,040.84 tons [3]. - Zinc Social Inventory: 1.192 million tons, an increase of 500 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - Galvanized Sheet Production: 2.34 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons [3]. - Galvanized Sheet Sales: 2.42 million tons, an increase of 140,000 tons [3]. - New Housing Starts Area: 490.6139 million square meters, an increase of 36.6239 million square meters [3]. - Housing Completion Area: 348.61 million square meters, an increase of 37.3212 million square meters [3]. - Automobile Production: 3.279 million vehicles, an increase of 52,000 vehicles [3]. - Air Conditioner Production: 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units [3]. 6. Option Market - Zinc At-the-Money Call Option Implied Volatility: 18.84%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points [3]. - Zinc At-the-Money Put Option Implied Volatility: 18.84%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points [3]. - Zinc At-the-Money Option 20-Day Historical Volatility: 13.07%, unchanged [3]. - Zinc At-the-Money Option 60-Day Historical Volatility: 11.67%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points [3]. 7. Industry News - China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months: the 5-year LPR in December is 3.5%, and the 1-year LPR is 3% [3]. - Trump's "appointed" director Milan said that if the Federal Reserve does not continue to cut interest rates next year, there will be a risk of recession. The Federal Reserve's voting members in 2025 are hawkish: there is no need to cut interest rates in the next few months, and the CPI in November was underestimated [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EB2602 contract is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with technical support around 6390 and resistance around 6690. The domestic styrene supply - demand is shifting towards a looser balance, and the pace of visible inventory depletion is expected to slow down. The non - integrated process losses are deepening, while the integrated process profitability is expanding. The overall demand is difficult to see significant growth [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract is 6509 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; the trading volume is 445526 lots, up 59642 lots. The long positions of the top 20 holders are 351589 lots, down 18663 lots; the net long positions are - 24911 lots, down 9610 lots. The short positions of the top 20 holders are 376500 lots, down 9053 lots. The contract price for January is 6467 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan. The open interest is 314602 lots, down 228 lots, and the total warehouse receipt quantity is 600 lots, up 500 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 6642 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The FOB South Korea middle price is 812.5 dollars/ton, up 17 dollars; the CFR China middle price is 822.5 dollars/ton, up 17 dollars. The mainstream prices in the Northeast, South, North, and East China regions are 6325 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), 6720 yuan/ton (up 65 yuan), 6525 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 6550 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan) respectively [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia middle price of ethylene is 746 dollars/ton (unchanged), the CFR Southeast Asia middle price is 726 dollars/ton (unchanged), the CIF Northwest Europe middle price is 661.5 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars, and the FD US Gulf price is 408 dollars/ton, up 19.5 dollars. The spot prices of pure benzene in Taiwan (CIF), Rotterdam (FOB), and the South China, East China, and North China markets are 661.17 dollars/ton (unchanged), 739 dollars/ton (unchanged), 5300 yuan/ton (unchanged), 5325 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), and 5150 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively. The US Gulf FOB price is 279 cents/gallon (unchanged) [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate is 69.13%, up 0.84 percentage points. The national inventory is 170960 tons, down 7550 tons. The total inventory at the main ports in East China is 13.93 million tons, up 0.46 million tons; the trade inventory is 8.46 million tons, up 0.22 million tons. The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber are 51.81% (down 1.96 percentage points), 70.1% (down 0.43 percentage points), 54.5% (down 3.8 percentage points), 36% (unchanged), and 79.23% (down 0.94 percentage points) respectively [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - From December 12th to 18th, the overall output of Chinese styrene factories was 346800 tons, up 2.38% from the previous period, and the factory capacity utilization rate was 69.13%, up 1.02% month - on - month. The consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS in the styrene downstream was 261800 tons, down 3.89% month - on - month. As of December 18th, the styrene factory inventory was 171000 tons, down 4.23% from the previous week. As of December 22nd, the styrene inventory at the East China ports was 139300 tons, up 3.41% from the previous week; the South China port inventory was 11000 tons, down 26.67% from the previous week. As of December 17th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was - 203 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 421.08 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish but volatile outlook for the hot-rolled coil plate market, with a recommended focus on risk control [2] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - On Tuesday, the HC2605 contract saw a rally followed by a pullback. Despite a decline in the terminal demand for plates, the strong performance of furnace materials provides cost support. Additionally, positive macro - policy expectations keep the hot - rolled coil futures price in an upward trend [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,281 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the position volume is 1,198,397 lots, up 9,846 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is 24,516 lots, up 718 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread is - 1 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 131,893 tons, unchanged; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread is 153 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coil plates in Hangzhou is 3,320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guangzhou it's 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan it's 3,330 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin it's 3,180 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the HC main contract is 39 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is - 10 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port is 792 yuan/wet ton, down 5 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel is 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 45 - port iron ore inventory is 155.0814 million tons, up 802,800 tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory is 517,800 tons, up 18,200 tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory is 6.3358 million tons, down 16,400 tons; the Hebei billet inventory is 1.1313 million tons, up 14,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate is 78.45%, down 0.16 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 84.91%, down 0.99 percentage points. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output is 2.9191 million tons, down 168,000 tons; the sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate is 74.57%, down 4.29 percentage points. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil inventory is 834,200 tons, down 6,100 tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory is 3.073 million tons, down 57,600 tons. The domestic crude steel output is 6.987 million tons, down 213,000 tons; the steel net export volume is 948,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile production is 3.5316 million units, up 172,900 units; the monthly automobile sales are 3.429 million units, up 106,900 units. The monthly air - conditioner output is 15.026 million units, up 822,000 units; the monthly household refrigerator output is 9.442 million units, up 654,000 units; the monthly household washing - machine output is 12.013 million units, up 978,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - The central bank has announced a one - time credit repair policy for small - amount personal overdue information (single - amount below 10,000 yuan) within a specific period, applicable to credit cards, mortgages, and consumer loans. In November 2025, most categories of Chinese steel exports rebounded month - on - month, with a rotation in the export structure. The export of coated plates, which had led for months, declined 13.7% month - on - month to 1.753 million tons, while hot - rolled exports rebounded to the first place in monthly export volume [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustments, facing pressure at the upper edge of the upward channel at the 34 position. It also suggests paying attention to the support of the lower MA5 [3]. - On the macro front, there are differing views on the Fed's interest - rate policy, with one view stating that not continuing to cut interest rates next year may lead to a recession, while another view is that there is no need to cut interest rates in the next few months. On the fundamental side, the domestic supply of tin ore imports remains relatively tight, and the smelting of refined tin is expected to be restricted. Although Indonesia's export volume increased in November, domestic tin imports are expected to remain at a low level. The demand side shows a dull purchasing atmosphere, and the technical side shows a strong long - position sentiment but faces resistance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 344,750 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4,310 yuan/ton. The closing price of the January - February contract of Shanghai tin is - 1,040 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 220 yuan/ton [3]. - LME3 - month tin is at 42,730 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 497 US dollars/ton. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 61,161 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 31,914 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 2,481 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,452 lots. LME tin's total inventory is 4,625 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 20 tons [3]. - The inventory of tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 8,095 tons (weekly), with a month - on - month increase of 704 tons. LME tin's cancelled warrants are 115 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 20 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipts of tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 8,340 tons (daily), with a month - on - month increase of 655 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price is 339,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 800 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 339,420 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,780 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is - 5,940 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,560 yuan/ton. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 25.01 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 36.01 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons (monthly), with a month - on - month increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 327,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 800 yuan/ton [3]. - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate (Antaike) is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 331,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 800 yuan/ton [3]. - The processing fee of 60% tin concentrate (Antaike) is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 217,930 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 139.01 million tons (monthly), with a month - on - month increase of 14.47 million tons [3]. - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 22.26 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.5 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months. In December, the over - 5 - year LPR is 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR is 3% [3]. - Trump - appointed Fed理事Milan said that if the Fed does not continue to cut interest rates next year, there will be a risk of recession, but he also believes that there will be no short - term economic recession. Rising unemployment may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates. Another Fed voter with a hawkish stance said there is no need to cut interest rates in the next few months and that the November CPI is underestimated [3].

| | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-12-23 参考：预计短线沪镍偏强调整，关注MA5支撑，上方13关口。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 123440 | 2180 01-02月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -400 | 40 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15260 | 360 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 134454 | 77443 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -36843 | -1689 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 254388 | -162 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 45280 | 603 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 11772 | -792 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 38621 | -301 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 125250 | 3450 现货均价: ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - On Tuesday, the I2605 contract traded within a range. China's December LPR remained unchanged for the 7th consecutive month. In terms of supply and demand, the shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased simultaneously, steel mills increased blast furnace maintenance, molten iron production continued to decline, and port inventories of iron ore continued to rise. Overall, port inventories showed an accumulation trend, supply was relatively abundant, steel mills made purchases as needed, but the spot price was firm, so the futures price might trade within a range. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA declined from high levels, with the green bar expanding. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 778.50 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan; the position volume was 554,034 lots, up 2081 lots. The 1 - 5 contract spread was 18 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan; the net position of the top 20 contract holders was 4987 lots, up 561 lots. The DCE warehouse receipt was 1,300.00 lots, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 104.4 dollars/ton at 15:00, down 0.36 dollars [2] 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 854 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fines was 846 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 763 yuan/dry ton, down 3 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 68 yuan, up 2 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index was 108.25 dollars/ton (previous day), up 0.10 dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.10, unchanged. The estimated import cost was 878 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly, in 10,000 tons) was 3,464.50, down 128.00. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports (weekly, in 10,000 tons) was 2,790.20, down 137.90. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly, in 10,000 tons) was 16,225.53, up 114.06. The iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly, in 10,000 tons) was 8,723.95, down 110.25. The iron ore import volume (monthly, in 10,000 tons) was 11,054.00, down 77.00. The available days of iron ore (weekly, in days) was 22.00, up 1. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly, in 10,000 tons) was 37.61, down 0.26. The operating rate of 266 mines (weekly, in %) was 59.52, down 0.55. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly, in 10,000 tons) was 47.80, up 2.83. The BDI index was 1,979.00, down 44.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 24.21 dollars/ton, up 0.04 dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.795 dollars/ton, down 0.30 dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly, in %) was 78.45, down 0.16; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly, in %) was 84.91, down 0.99. The domestic crude steel output (monthly, in 10,000 tons) was 6,987, down 213 [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily, in %) was 13.31, up 0.01; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily, in %) was 14.70, down 0.08. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily, in %) was 15.16, down 0.19; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily, in %) was 14.93, down 0.30 [2] Industry News - From December 15th to December 21st, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3464.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 128.0 tons. The total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2814.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 150.8 tons. The Australian shipment volume was 1950.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 102.0 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1694.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.6 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 864.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 48.8 tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2790.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 137.9 tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2646.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 76.7 tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1256.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 102.1 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoint - The sugar market is expected to maintain weak performance in the later stage due to sufficient supply and weak spot prices dragging down the futures market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,155 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 29 yuan; the position of the main contract is 508,950 lots, a decrease of 4,117 lots [2] - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 4,479, with no month - on - month change; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 86,192 lots, a decrease of 666 lots [2] - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,067 yuan/ton, an increase of 72 yuan; the estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 4,067 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming is 5,195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; the spot price in Guangxi Nanning is 5,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the spot price in Guangxi Liuzhou is 5,360 yuan/ton, with no change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop planting area is 1.48 million hectares, with an increase of 60,000 hectares; the cumulative national sugar production is 11.1621 million tons [2] - The planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 840,330 hectares; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 8.94 million tons, a decrease of 5.9335 million tons [2] - The cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan is 448,000 tons, a decrease of 2.374 million tons; the total export volume of Brazilian sugar is 3.302 million tons, a decrease of 903,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,099 yuan/ton, a decrease of 116 yuan; the price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) is 13 yuan/ton, a decrease of 139 yuan [2] - The price difference between imported Thai sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,051 yuan/ton, a decrease of 117 yuan; the price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) is - 49 yuan/ton, a decrease of 138 yuan [2] - The monthly import volume of sugar is 750,000 tons, an increase of 200,000 tons; the cumulative import volume is 3.9 million tons, an increase of 740,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 883,000 tons, an increase of 343,900 tons; the monthly production of soft drinks is 10.962 million tons, a decrease of 4.955 million tons [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.7%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.69%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.68%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.96%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - Brazil exported 2.135 million tons of sugar in the first three weeks of December, with a daily average export volume of 142,300 tons, a 5% increase compared to the daily average export volume in December last year [2] - In November 2025, China imported 114,400 tons of syrup and pre - mixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 108,300 tons; from January to November, the cumulative import was 1.1143 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0718 million tons, a decrease of 49.02% [2] - The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose 0.17 cents or 1.15% to settle at 14.99 cents per pound [2] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - The number of sugar mills in China crushing sugarcane is increasing, and the industrial inventory of domestic sugar is in a seasonal growth trend. As of now, 71 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing in the 25/26 season, 3 less than the same period last year; 33 sugar mills in Yunnan have started crushing, 3 more than the same period last year [2] - In November 2025, China's sugar import volume decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the progress of imported sugar slowed down significantly [2]

数据来源第三方(wind、同花顺、棉花信息网、棉花协会网)，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14140 | 70 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20185 | 75 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -139807 | -1261 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -1371 | -111 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 798985 | 13923 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 23262 | -32 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 4088 | 13 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 14 | 5 | | 现货市场 | /吨) 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | 15213 | 59 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, 元/吨) | 20990 | 60 | | ...