Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an aluminum industry daily report dated December 24, 2025, covering futures, spot, upstream, industrial, downstream, option, and industry news aspects [1][2] Group 2: Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 22,330 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; the main - second contract spread is -130 yuan, down 5 yuan. The main contract position is 296,924 lots, down 4,891 lots [2] - The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,554 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; the main - second contract spread is -104 yuan, up 5 yuan. The main contract position is 110,145 lots [2] - The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quotation is 2,941 US dollars/ton, with no change; the LME aluminum inventory is 519,600 tons, and the LME aluminum cancelled warrants are 74,400 tons, with no change [2] - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 21,480 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan; the main - second contract spread is -135 yuan, down 100 yuan. The main contract position is 15,141 lots, down 877 lots [2] Group 3: Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 22,030 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 21,950 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2] - The Yangtze River Non - ferrous market AOO aluminum price is 21,840 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,640 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 470 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is -300 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2] - The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is -190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is -35.59 US dollars/ton, up 4.89 US dollars [2] - The basis of alumina is 86 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan [2] Group 4: Upstream Situation - The national alumina production in the month is 813.80 million tons, up 27.30 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) in the month is 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons [2] - The alumina supply - demand balance in the month is 37.98 million tons, down 8.87 million tons; the national alumina inventory is 197,566 tons, down 61,270 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 17,200 yuan/ton, with no change; the average price in Shandong metal scrap is 16,650 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - China's import volume of aluminum scrap and waste in the month is 162,756.17 tons, up 4,396.16 tons; the export volume is 71.53 tons, up 39.07 tons [2] - The export volume of alumina in the month is 17.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons; the import volume is 23.24 million tons, up 4.31 million tons [2] - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance in the month is -10.87 million tons, up 8.34 million tons [2] Group 5: Industry Situation - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 53.70 million tons, up 2.70 million tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,524.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons [2] - The import volume of primary aluminum in the month is 146,109.72 tons, down 101,652.54 tons; the export volume is 53,047.69 tons, up 28,474.13 tons [2] - The electrolytic aluminum production in the month is 593.10 million tons, up 23.70 million tons; the export volume of unrolled aluminum and aluminum products is 57.00 million tons, up 7.00 million tons [2] - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in the month is 70.00 million tons, up 9.17 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 3.06 million tons, down 0.03 million tons [2] Group 6: Downstream and Application - The completed production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126.00 million tons, with no change; the national real estate climate index is 91.90, down 0.52 [2] - The aluminum alloy production in the month is 173.90 million tons, with no change; the automobile production in the month is 351.90 million vehicles, up 24.00 million vehicles [2] Group 7: Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 12.90%, up 0.06%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 12.01%, down 0.04% [2] - The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money is 12.91%, down 0.0094; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.64, up 0.0391 [2] Group 8: Industry News - Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized that central enterprises should focus on their main responsibilities and businesses, optimize the layout of the state - owned economy, enhance core functions and competitiveness [2] - The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in December dropped from 92.9 last month to 89.1, the fifth consecutive monthly decline [2] - The initial value of the US real GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.3% year - on - year, far exceeding the market expectation of 3.3% [2] Group 9: Alumina View - The alumina main contract fluctuates strongly, with reduced positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The raw material supply is sufficient, but domestic production capacity and operation may decline slightly due to profit erosion [2] - The demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is stable. The overall fundamentals are in a stage of excessive supply and stable demand. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2] Group 10: Electrolytic Aluminum View - The Shanghai Aluminum main contract first falls and then rises, with reduced positions, spot discount, and strengthening basis. The aluminum plant profit expands, and the production capacity operation is positive [2] - The supply is expected to be stable, and the demand has some resilience at the end of the year but may weaken in the off - season. The overall fundamentals are in a tight supply - demand balance. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2] Group 11: Cast Aluminum Alloy View - The cast aluminum main contract fluctuates strongly, with reduced positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The raw material supply is tight, and production may decline [2] - The demand is affected by the off - season, and the market transaction is average. The overall fundamentals are in a situation of slightly decreasing supply and slowing demand. It is recommended to trade with a slightly long position in a range - bound market with a light position [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Egg Industry Daily Report 2025-12-24 [1] - Analyst: Xu Fangli [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F3073708 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0017638 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The short - term near - month contracts may be in a wide - range oscillation state, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions in the far - month contracts [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 2,947 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a环比 increase of 71 [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is - 33,420 lots, with a环比 increase of 11,292 [2]. - The egg futures monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 528 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a环比 decrease of 23 [2]. - The futures open interest of the active egg contract is 169,411 lots, with a环比 decrease of 20,946 [2]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 0 lots, with no环比 change [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 2.98 yuan per jin, with a环比 decrease of 0.07 [2]. - The basis (spot - futures) is 31 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a环比 decrease of 138 [2]. Upstream Situation - The laying hen inventory index nationwide is 112.03 (2015 = 100), with a环比 decrease of 2.21 [2]. - The culled laying hen index nationwide is 101.18 (2015 = 100), with a环比 decrease of 13.26 [2]. - The average price of layer chicks in the main producing areas is 2.8 yuan per chick, with no环比 change [2]. - The new chick index nationwide is 93.62 (2015 = 100), with a环比 increase of 26.53 [2]. - The average price of layer compound feed is 2.8 yuan per kilogram, with no环比 change [2]. - The layer farming profit is - 0.36 yuan per chicken, with no环比 change [2]. - The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas is 7.9 yuan per kilogram, with a环比 decrease of 0.04 [2]. - The average age of culled chickens nationwide is 500 days, with a环比 decrease of 10 [2]. Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.35 yuan per kilogram, with a环比 decrease of 0.18 [2]. - The average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables is 5.81 yuan per kilogram, with a环比 decrease of 0.02 [2]. - The average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.85 yuan per kilogram, with a环比 decrease of 0.11 [2]. - The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.12 days, with a环比 increase of 0.02 [2]. - The weekly inventory in the production link is 1 day, with a环比 decrease of 0.01 [2]. - The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13,394.53 tons, with a环比 increase of 178.74 [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7,023 tons, with a环比 decrease of 104 [2]. Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main producing area, is 5.80 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.19 from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.66 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.12; in Guangdong, it is 6.53 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from yesterday; in Beijing, it is 6.16 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.14 [2]. - The continuous losses of the farming end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old chicken culls. The laying hen inventory has slightly declined, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved [2]. Key Points of View - The spot price remains low, and the farming end is still in a loss state. The market's enthusiasm for replenishment is poor, which is beneficial to the long - term price. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, the culling of old chickens has slowed down slightly, and the high production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - month market price [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.230 | 0.02% T主力成交量 | 69143 | -29383↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 106.025 | -0.01% TF主力成交量 | 54708 | -24224↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.526 | 0% TS主力成交量 | 26501 | -8831↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 112.840 | 0.02% TL主力成交量 | 110763 | -29971↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2606价差 | -0.22 | -0.05↓ T03-TL03价差 | -4.61 | 0.00↑ | | | T2603-2606价差 | 0.00 | +0.00↑ TF03-T03价差 | -2.21 | -0.01↓ | | | TF2603-2606价差 | 0.01 | +0.01↑ TS03-T03价差 | -5.70 | -0.01↓ | | | TS ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The follow - up market trend depends on the peak - season consumption performance. If terminal demand is released as expected, inventory clearance may speed up and support price stability; if consumption falls short of expectations, existing inventory pressure may intensify. With short - term supply being loose and demand showing no obvious improvement, the jujube price is expected to remain weak. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for jujube is 8,890 yuan/ton, with a increase of 140 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 117,319 lots, a decrease of 11,950 lots. [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 12,784 lots, an increase of 1,373 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 1,092, and the total valid warehouse receipt forecast is 675, a decrease of 394. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of jujube in various regions are mostly stable, with only the price of Hebei's top - grade jujube slightly decreasing by 0.03 yuan/kg to 9.53 yuan/kg. [2] 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual jujube output is 6.069 million tons, an increase of 3.187 million tons, and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory is 16,108 tons, an increase of 318 tons. The monthly export volume is 3,537,566 kg, an increase of 1,332,346 kg, and the cumulative monthly export volume is 29,291,188 kg, an increase of 3,537,566 kg. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of Hao Xiang Ni's jujube is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year production growth rate is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points. [2] - The average daily number of trucks arriving at the Ruyifang market is 5.13, a decrease of 0.25 trucks. The monthly average wholesale price of jujube is 10.33 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.46 yuan/kg. [2] 3.6 Industry News - In Hebei's Cui'erzhuang market, there is a small amount of goods arriving, and due to the weather, the number of purchasing customers is average. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 2 trucks of jujube arrive, and the price is stable. The Xinjiang procurement is almost over, with some merchants still looking for goods and storing them in dry warehouses in Xinjiang. [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the Rapeseed Industry Daily on December 24, 2025, covering futures, spot, upstream, industry, downstream, option markets, and industry news [1] Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Market - Futures closing price (active contract): Rapeseed oil is 8,980 yuan/ton, up 133 yuan; Rapeseed meal is 2,344 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - Rapeseed oil monthly spread (5 - 9) is 42 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan; Rapeseed meal monthly spread (5 - 9) is -56 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 196,266 lots, down 7,936 lots; Rapeseed meal is 630,650 lots, up 10,459 lots. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is -26,077 lots, up 2,154 lots; Rapeseed meal is -51,540 lots, down 1,748 lots. - Warehouse receipt quantity: Rapeseed oil is 3,866 sheets, down 10 sheets; Rapeseed meal is 0 sheets [2] Spot Market - Spot price: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,360 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,420 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - Average price: Rapeseed oil is 9,478.75 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. - Import cost price of rapeseed is 7,490.98 yuan/ton, down 42.3 yuan. - Spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton. - Oil - meal ratio is 3.78, up 0.03 [2] Substitute Spot Price - Spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,340 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; Rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread is 1,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. - Spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,470 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; Rapeseed - palm oil spot spread is 990 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - Spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,100 yuan/ton; Soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 680 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 92.27 million tons, up 1.31 million tons; Annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13,446 thousand tons. - Rapeseed import volume is 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; Imported rapeseed crushing profit is 439 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 0.1 million tons. - Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate is 0%. - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; Import volume of rapeseed meal is 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2] Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 million tons, down 0.15 million tons; Coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, down 0.02 million tons. - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 29.8 million tons, down 2.4 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 17.91 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 0.4 million tons, down 0.15 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 24 million tons, down 0.8 million tons. - Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 is 0.48 million tons, down 0.42 million tons; Rapeseed meal weekly提货量 is 0 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Feed production is 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons. - Social consumer goods retail sales of catering is 6,057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan. - Edible vegetable oil production is 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for rapeseed meal is 16.54%, down 0.45%; Implied volatility of at - the - money put option for rapeseed meal is 16.54%, down 0.44%. - 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.88%, up 0.2%; 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.61%. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for rapeseed oil is 14.5%, down 0.64%; Implied volatility of at - the - money put option for rapeseed oil is 14.52%, down 0.61%. - 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 15.5%, down 0.44%; 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 14.83%, down 0.11% [2] Group 3: Industry News - On December 23 (Tuesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower but remained above recent lows and the downward trend since early December. The most active March rapeseed futures contract fell 9.30 Canadian dollars to settle at 603.20 Canadian dollars per ton. - During the US soybean export season, the supply is temporarily abundant, and Brazil's soybean harvest is expected to be high. The US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market. The market is watching China's purchases of US soybeans [2] Group 4: Market Views Rapeseed Meal - In the domestic market, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is still restricted, and oil mills are still shut down, leading to a tight supply. However, as Australian rapeseed arrives at ports, the marginal supply increases slightly. There are also rumors that Cofco is inquiring about Canadian forward rapeseed, increasing the forward supply expectation. Meanwhile, soybean meal has a good substitution advantage, weakening the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The Canadian Agriculture and Agri - Food Department (AAFC) raised the ending inventory forecast of Canadian rapeseed for the 2025/26 season by 450,000 tons to 2.95 million tons, bettering the supply - demand pattern of Canadian rapeseed and constraining its market price. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The rapeseed meal futures showed a slight increase in oscillation and may maintain narrow - range oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to China's purchases of US soybeans [2] Rapeseed Oil - High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil declined in the first 20 days and export data improved. However, the 2026 biofuel quota released by the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has raised doubts about the implementation progress of the B50 plan. In the domestic market, oil mills are still shut down, and rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline, supporting its price. However, as Australian rapeseed arrives at ports and enters the crushing process, and the Sino - Canadian trade relationship eases and expectations rise, the forward supply pressure increases. In addition, the soybean oil supply is abundant, and its substitution advantage is good, so the demand for rapeseed oil remains mainly for rigid needs. Recently, rapeseed oil has oscillated at a low level [2] Group 5: Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions reported by Myagric on Monday, and the trend of Sino - Canadian trade relations [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the domestic market, the national cotton inspection volume has exceeded 5.5 million tons, and the commercial inventory is expected to grow rapidly. In November, the cotton import volume increased slightly month - on - month, and the import port inventory is expected to maintain an upward trend. The downstream textile enterprises' peak - season procurement has ended, showing off - season characteristics, but the rise in external cotton prices will boost the cotton market in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 14,180 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 20,260 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 145,887 hands, down 6,080 hands; that of cotton yarn futures is - 1,332 hands, up 39 hands. The main contract position of cotton is 814,571 hands, up 15,586 hands; that of cotton yarn is 23,282 hands, up 20 hands. The cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 4,370 sheets, up 282 sheets; the cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 22 sheets, up 8 sheets [2] Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index CCIndex:3128B is 15,271 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count is 21,020 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The arrival price of imported pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count is 21,087 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; that of imported pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count is 22,257 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons. The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,749 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 850,000 tons, up 65,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import quantity of cotton is 120,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; the monthly import quantity of cotton yarn is 150,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The import cotton profit is 1,371 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 4.6836 million tons, up 1.753 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 26.33 days, up 0.21 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 32.34 days, up 0.37 days. The monthly output of cloth is 2.81 billion meters, up 0.19 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.039 million tons, up 38,000 tons. The monthly export amount of clothing and clothing accessories is 11,593,686 thousand US dollars, and the monthly export amount of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 12,275,733,101,731.408 thousand US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 9.53%, up 0.2%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 9.53%, up 0.21%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.14%, up 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.22%, down 0.11% [2] Industry News - As of December 21, 2025, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton in the 2025/26 season is 25,822,223 bales, totaling 5,828,808 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.98%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton is 5,701,729 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.43%. The ICE cotton futures rose on Tuesday, with investors covering short positions and the weakening US dollar providing support. The ICE March cotton futures contract closed up 0.40 cents, or 0.63%, at 64.01 cents per pound [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates strongly, with an increase in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The copper concentrate spot processing fee index operates in the negative range and declines slightly, providing strong cost support for copper prices. The supply of refined copper increases slightly due to the recovery of smelter operating rates, but is limited by raw material shortages. High copper prices make downstream purchasing more cautious, but the consumption side remains resilient, leading to a slight reduction in Shanghai copper social inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility decreases slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - line is above the 0 - axis and the red column expands. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a slightly bullish and fluctuating manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 96,100 yuan/ton, up 2,170 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 12,193 dollars/ton, up 132.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 130 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 258,277 lots, up 17,184 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 28,086 lots, down 1,167 lots. The LME copper inventory is 158,575 tons, up 825 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 95,805 tons, up 6,416 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 48,875 tons, down 2,875 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 52,222 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 93,470 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 94,970 yuan/ton, up 1,350 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 53 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 56.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 1,410 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 13.16 dollars/ton, up 6.58 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 252.62 million tons, up 7.47 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 43.65 dollars/thousand tons, down 0.57 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 85,240 yuan/metal ton, up 1,360 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 85,940 yuan/metal ton, up 1,360 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South is 1,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for blister copper in the North is 1,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 63,790 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 77,750 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 482.434 billion yuan, up 44.627 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 7,859.09 billion yuan, up 502.82 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,392 million pieces, up 215 million pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 19.36%, up 1.34%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 16.5%, up 0.24%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 20.4%, down 0.0061; the call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.21, down 0.0228 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Chinese President Xi Jinping made important instructions on the work of central enterprises, emphasizing focusing on main responsibilities and core businesses, optimizing the layout of the state - owned economy, enhancing core functions and competitiveness, strengthening research on key core technologies, and deepening reforms. The US December Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped from 92.9 last month to 89.1, the fifth consecutive monthly decline. The initial annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%, far exceeding the market expectation of 3.3%. Consumer spending was the biggest driver of growth, with a quarterly growth rate of 3.5%. The core PCE price index rose 2.9% in the third quarter. In addition, the orders and shipments of core capital goods in the US rebounded in October [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The L2605 contract rose 1.99% to close at 6,408 yuan/ton. Last week, new maintenance devices were added, causing a decline in PE production and capacity utilization rate. The operating rates of agricultural film and packaging film continued to decline, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE decreased. Factory and social inventories changed differently, and the pace of total inventory reduction slowed down. Oil - and coal - based process costs decreased, and profits slightly recovered. There are no new maintenance or restart devices this week, and the impact of previously shut - down production capacity may lead to a further decline in PE production and capacity utilization rate. From December to January next year, with continuous capacity release and limited impact of device maintenance, the industry is expected to remain in a high - supply stage. The agricultural film is in the off - season, and the operating rate continues to decline; the demand for packaging film is limited, and it is difficult to support the demand. Due to the deterioration of the geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela, international oil prices have risen significantly recently. The short - term L2605 is expected to show a volatile trend, with support around 6,220 and resistance around 6,600 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing prices of polyethylene futures contracts increased, with the main contract closing at 6,408 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan; the 1 - month contract at 6,350 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan; the 5 - month contract at 6,408 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan; and the 9 - month contract at 6,445 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The trading volume was 668,755 lots, up 1,921 lots, and the open interest was 540,352 lots, down 41,207 lots. The 1 - 5 spread was - 58, down 8. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 462,058 lots, down 24,701 lots; the short positions were 547,783 lots, down 40,729 lots; and the net long positions were - 85,725 lots, up 16,028 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6,273.48 yuan/ton, down 50.43 yuan; in East China, it was 6,378.37 yuan/ton, down 18.84 yuan. The basis was - 134.52, down 162.43 [2]. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 57.75 US dollars/barrel, up 0.24 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 542.25 US dollars/ton, up 2.37 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 726 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 746 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The national operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants was 83.86%, down 0.25 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 48.96%, down 0.63 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 31%, unchanged; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 45.18%, down 1.22 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 14.64%, up 0.82 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.4%, up 0.41 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.1%, up 0.6 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.1%, up 0.62 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From December 12th to 18th, China's total polyethylene production was 679,600 tons, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 83.86%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points from the previous period. From December 12th to 18th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.6% compared with the previous period. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural film decreased by 1.2%, and the operating rate of PE packaging film decreased by 0.6%. As of December 17th, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 488,700 tons, an increase of 3.65% from the previous period; as of December 24th, the social inventory of polyethylene in sample warehouses was 458,600 tons, a decrease of 5.99% from the previous period. From December 3rd to 19th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 2.86% to 6,937 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit increased by 182.71 yuan/ton to - 287.29 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 3.88% to 6,575 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 25.71 yuan/ton to - 41.14 yuan/ton [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The stainless steel futures price is expected to adjust strongly. Pay attention to the support at MA5, with an upper target of 13,300 [2]. - Although the stainless steel mills' production profit has improved and the traditional demand peak season has passed, the actual decline in production is expected to be limited, and supply pressure still exists [2]. - Downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the stainless steel export volume is showing a downward trend. The market procurement willingness is low, but the national stainless steel social inventory maintains a seasonal slight decline [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 13,075 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the 01 - 02 contract spread is - 210 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 14,898 lots, an increase of 1,477 lots; the main contract position is 106,172 lots, an increase of 5,401 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 47,580 tons, a decrease of 125 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of stainless steel is 300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,100 metal tons, a decrease of 800 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, an increase of 2,900.84 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 895,400 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 130,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,950 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 900 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. - The monthly Chinese ferro - chrome production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly 300 - series stainless steel production is 1.7617 million tons, a decrease of 38,300 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 570,100 tons, a decrease of 17,600 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, an increase of 43.9531 million square meters [2]. - The monthly output of excavators is 33,600 units, an increase of 2,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 22,600 units, an increase of 700 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, unchanged [2]. Industry News - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference plans to stabilize the real estate market in 2026, control the increment, reduce the inventory, and optimize the supply according to local conditions [2]. - The US GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.3% year - on - year, the fastest growth in two years. The core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, increased by 2.9% [2]. - In the raw material end, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the nickel ore grade is decreasing. The raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year [2].

| | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-12-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 341800 | -2950 1月-2月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -1010 | 30 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 42835 | 105 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 56040 | -5121 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -3210 | -729 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 4675 | 50 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 8095 | 704 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 115 | 0 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 8331 | -9 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 336350 | -3450 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 338070 | -1350 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元/吨) ...