1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - On September 16, the coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1240.5, up 5.84%. Traders fully priced in three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025. After the impact of administrative production cuts at the beginning of the month subsided, most mines resumed production. Supply from mines increased this period, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, and the cumulative import growth rate declined for 3 consecutive months. Inventory is neutral. Technically, the daily K is above the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile and bullish trend [2]. - On September 16, the coke 2601 contract closed at 1735.0, up 4.24%. The spot market saw a second - round price cut for coke. In terms of fundamentals, the pig iron output this period was 240.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons. After the impact of steel mill production control for the parade faded, pig iron output returned to the previous level. Coke inventory is moderately high. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide this period was 35 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K is above the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile and bullish trend [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1240.50 yuan/ton, up 53.00 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1735.00 yuan/ton, up 46.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 982079.00 lots, up 43952.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 53357.00 lots, down 86.00 lots [2]. - Net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts: - 115144.00 lots, down 5404.00 lots; Net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts: - 5055.00 lots, up 147.00 lots [2]. - JM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 89.00 yuan/ton, down 8.00 yuan; J 5 - 1 month contract spread: 138.50 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 600.00 pieces, up 100.00 pieces; Coke warehouse receipts: 1520.00 pieces, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal: 950.00 yuan/ton, up 15.00 yuan; Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke: 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 149.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1570.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke: 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1540.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis: - 15.00 yuan/ton, down 46.50 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1080.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; JM main contract basis: 29.50 yuan/ton, down 53.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Fine coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants: 25.60 million tons, up 0.40 million tons; Fine coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants: 280.60 million tons, down 5.60 million tons [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants: 0.35%, unchanged; Raw coal output: 39050.00 million tons, up 951.30 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 4273.70 million tons, up 712.70 million tons; Average daily raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines: 185.60 million tons, up 15.60 million tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports: 466.35 million tons, up 1.58 million tons; Coke inventory at 18 ports: 258.31 million tons, down 2.45 million tons [2]. - Total coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 883.54 million tons, down 36.51 million tons; Coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 67.84 million tons, up 1.33 million tons [2]. 3.4 National Industrial Situation - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills: 793.73 million tons, down 2.03 million tons; Coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills: 633.29 million tons, up 9.58 million tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises: 12.81 days, down 0.28 days; Available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills: 11.29 days, down 0.42 days [2]. - Coking coal imports: 962.30 million tons, up 53.11 million tons; Coke and semi - coke exports: 0.00 million tons, down 89.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output: 4089.38 million tons, up 25.00 million tons; Capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 75.92%, up 2.78% [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants: 35.00 yuan/ton, down 29.00 yuan/ton; Coke output: 4260.00 million tons, up 74.50 million tons [2]. 3.5 National Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 83.85%, up 3.47%; Blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 90.20%, up 4.43% [2]. - Crude steel output: 7737.00 million tons, down 228.82 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - An important article by Xi Jinping pointed out the need to address the chaotic low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [2]. - Rio Tinto's SimFer announced that the first shipment of the Simandou project is planned for November 2025 and will gradually reach the designed capacity of 60 million tons within 30 months [2]. - From January to August, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.2% year - on - year, with a 0.1 - percentage - point decline compared to January - July; infrastructure investment increased by 2.0%, with a 1.2 - percentage - point decline; manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, with a 1.1 - percentage - point decline; real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%, with a 0.9 - percentage - point increase in the decline [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of the industrial silicon industry shows a regional differentiation trend of "steady production increase in the northwest and capacity shrinkage in the southwest." The actual production progress of new capacity in Xinjiang needs to be tracked next week [2]. - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat. The current industry inventory is still at a high level, and inventory digestion faces certain pressure [2]. - The spot price of industrial silicon continued to rise today, and it is expected to continue to rise in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices. If the price falls below 8,200 yuan later, one can consider medium - and long - term long positions at low prices [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,915 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 115 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 287,184 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 3,764 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 59,221 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 17,194 lots; the warehouse receipts of GIE were 49,905 lots [2]. - The closing price of the December contract for industrial silicon was - 370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the spread between the November and December contracts for industrial silicon was - 370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of the Si main contract was 385 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the DMC spot price was 11,020 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,860 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton [2]. - The average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 366,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,600 tons; the social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [2]. - The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.45 US dollars/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 US dollars/kg; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged from the previous week [2]. - The monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 24,908.89 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 861.29 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 72.71%, a week - on - week increase of 2.12 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.536 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 133,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. Industry News - The CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index tracked by the Photovoltaic Leading ETF (159609) rose 1.62%. Among the heavy - weight stocks, Canadian Solar rose 5.5%, Ginlong Technologies rose 3.8%, Deye Technology rose 3.6%, Junda Co., Ltd. rose 3.3%, Shangneng Electric rose 3.1%, Sungrow Power Supply rose 7.3%, LONGi Green Energy rose 1.0%, TBEA Co., Ltd. rose 0.3%, and Tongwei Co., Ltd. rose 0.8% [2]. - From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, as the wet season deepens, the electricity price advantage in the southwest region becomes more obvious, stimulating a significant acceleration in the resumption of production of silicon plants [2]. - On the demand side, the three major downstream industries of industrial silicon (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) have a flat total demand for industrial silicon [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic data in China shows characteristics of "slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption", leading to an increased expectation of a new round of policy easing. The actual tin ore output in Myanmar's Wa State will not occur until the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels. The demand from downstream processing enterprises is in the recovery period of the peak season, but the order recovery is slow. The spot market is expected to remain quiet, with domestic inventory increasing and LME inventory rising while the spot premium drops significantly. Technically, with reduced positions and price corrections, there is a divergence in long - short trading, and attention should be paid to the MA5 support. It is recommended to either wait and see or conduct range trading [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 272,730 yuan/ton, down 1,230 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai Tin is down 300 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 34,680 dollars/ton, down 275 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 24,273 lots, down 1,844 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 2,149 lots, down 369 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 2,645 tons, up 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,897 tons, up 124 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 160 tons, down 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of tin are 7,310 tons, down 92 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price is 272,400 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 272,760 yuan/ton, down 1,180 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 330 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 132 dollars/ton, down 97.02 dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 261,300 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 265,300 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 176,650 yuan/ton, down 1,140 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160.14 million tons, up 14.45 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14.07 million tons, down 3.39 million tons. The year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail in August slowed to 3.4%, and the growth rate of household appliances and audio - visual equipment retail slowed to 14.3%. The year - on - year increase in the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in August was 5.2%, with good growth in the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries. From January to August, national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5%, and manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%. From January to August, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year - on - year [3] 3.6 Industry News - China's economic data in August shows "slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption", increasing the expectation of a new round of policy easing. The US has lowered the import tariff on Japanese cars to 15% starting from 0:01 on the 16th (Eastern Time). Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, but actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter; the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels [3] 3.7 Key Points to Note - There is no news today [3]

态势。下游订单略有增加，纺企开机仍维持低位，关注传统消费旺季备货情况。操作上，建议短期暂且观 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13895 | 10 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19950 | 50 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -34949 | -4544 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -172 | 142 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 492631 | -5664 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 20282 | -858 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 4759 | -140 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 89 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 15300 | 51 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, | 20775 | 20 | | | /吨) 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | ...

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 铁矿石产业链日报 2025/9/16 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告 不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形 式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 803.50 | +7.50↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 532,373 | -3458↓ | | | I 1-5合约价差（元/吨） | 21.5 | 0.00 I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -36032 | -4616↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Currently, the egg supply is relatively abundant due to high laying - hen inventory and increased egg - laying rates with temperature drops. However, pre - holiday stocking has led to increased trader purchases, causing the egg price to rebound from the bottom, which also supports the futures market. The futures price has rebounded from a low level as short - sellers have closed their positions for profit. But high production capacity still exerts pressure on the market, so short - term trading is recommended in the near term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3113 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 30 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 3975 lots, an increase of 5300 lots; the egg futures monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 64 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 27 yuan; the futures open interest of the active contract is 415102 lots, an increase of 40191 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 lots [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of eggs is 3.84 yuan per catty, up 0.1 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is 728 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 133 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national laying - hen inventory index is 113.18 (with 2015 = 100), up 1.27; the national culled laying - hen index is 99.2 (with 2015 = 100), down 4.89; the average price of layer chicks in the main production areas is 2.6 yuan per chick, down 0.4 yuan; the national new - chick index is 78.4 (with 2015 = 100), up 2.33; the average price of layer compound feed is 2.76 yuan per kilogram, unchanged; the layer farming profit is - 0.02 yuan per chicken, up 0.21 yuan; the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 9.22 yuan per kilogram, down 0.02 yuan; the national culling age of chickens is 512 days, up 11 days; the average wholesale price of pork is 19.88 yuan per kilogram; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.02 yuan per kilogram, up 0.05 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.68 yuan per kilogram, up 0.16 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 0.99 days, down 0.04 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 0.91 days, down 0.02 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, down 110.81 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales area is 7303 tons, down 149 tons [2] Industry News - The average egg price in Shandong's main production area is 7.54 yuan per kilogram, up 0.20 yuan from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 7.23 yuan per kilogram, up 0.25 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 8.00 yuan per kilogram, up 0.20 yuan; in Beijing, it is 7.70 yuan per kilogram, up 0.20 yuan. High laying - hen inventory and new - laying pressure from previously replenished hens have led to abundant egg supply, and temperature drops have increased egg - laying rates, further increasing supply pressure [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to be stable, demand will recover slightly, and with the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract is 17,055 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the 11 - 12 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is -5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest is 90,294 lots, down 1,118 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is -1,874 lots, up 1,770 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 59,417 tons, down 68 tons; the SHFE inventory is 66,561 tons, down 273 tons; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,001.5 dollars/ton, down 16 dollars; the LME lead inventory is 225,625 tons, down 3,950 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the lead main contract is -105 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the LME lead (0 - 3) spread is -47.54 dollars/ton, down 6.38 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,296 yuan; the WBMS monthly supply - demand balance of lead is -1.87 million tons; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,870 yuan/ton; the number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, down 50; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.88%, up 0.61%; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 million tons, down 6.75 million tons; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 81.52%, down 1.04%; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.59 million tons, down 0.19 million tons; the processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is -90 dollars/kiloton; the ILZSG monthly lead supply - demand balance is 16.4 thousand tons, up 48.8 thousand tons; the ILZSG global lead ore monthly output is 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 11.97 million tons, up 2.48 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average daily price of waste batteries is 10,114.29 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average weekly domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 370 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of lead - acid batteries is 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 20,075 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the Shenwan tertiary - industry index of batteries is 2,149.88 points, down 23.77 points; the monthly automobile output is 2.51 million vehicles, down 0.2986 million vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.647 million vehicles, up 0.073 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - The US plans to include more steel and aluminum derivatives in the tariff scope; Trump calls for companies to change from quarterly to semi - annual reports, and the NASDAQ CEO supports it; the US plans to expand the strategic uranium reserve; India and the US will hold trade talks in New Delhi on Tuesday; the US military launched a second strike against Venezuelan drug traffickers; there is no evidence that Fed Governor Cook violated the main residence reporting regulations; former Fed official Brad is "very interested" in becoming the Fed chairman; Musk bought more than 2.5 million Tesla shares in a single day [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Macroscopically, the US August non - farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased. On the supply side, primary lead production has recovered, while recycled lead production is restricted by environmental inspections and low waste battery recycling efficiency. On the demand side, the demand for lead - acid batteries is gradually warming up, but the overall demand has not yet increased significantly. In terms of inventory, foreign lead inventory has decreased, domestic inventory has increased, and the overall inventory remains unchanged. Overall, the supply of Shanghai lead is expected to be stable, demand will recover slightly, and lead prices are expected to be supported [2]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Shanghai Zinc Industry Daily Report [2] - Report Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Fuhui [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03123381 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0019878 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The macro - economic situation in China shows characteristics of "sluggish industry, weak investment, and tepid consumption", leading to an increased expectation of a new round of policy easing. On the fundamental side, domestic and foreign zinc ore imports have increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees has slowed, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, giving smelters a large profit margin and increasing production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and the supply growth has accelerated. However, overseas zinc ore is tight, resulting in an expanding import loss, a decrease in imported zinc inflows, and an approaching export window. On the demand side, the downstream market shows a situation of "not prosperous in the peak season", with stable and slightly rising operating rates of processing enterprises. Recently, zinc prices have rebounded, downstream purchases are made on - demand, and the trading atmosphere is dull. Domestically, social inventories are increasing, and the spot premium remains low; overseas, LME inventories are significantly decreasing, and the spot premium is rising, which supports zinc prices. Technically, the position is decreasing, the price is adjusting, the bullish sentiment is weakening, and it faces resistance at MA60. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [3]. Group 4: Market Data Summary Futures Market - Shanghai Zinc Main Contract Closing Price: 22,255 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan [3] - 10 - 11 Month Contract Spread of Shanghai Zinc: - 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] - LME Three - Month Zinc Quote: 2,982 US dollars/ton, up 26 US dollars [3] - Total Shanghai Zinc Positions: 214,604 lots, down 7,147 lots [3] - Net Positions of the Top 20 in Shanghai Zinc: - 11,031 lots, down 3,092 lots [3] - Shanghai Zinc Warehouse Receipts: 52,170 tons, up 799 tons [3] - SHFE Inventory (weekly): 94,649 tons, up 7,617 tons [3] - LME Inventory (daily): 50,150 tons, down 375 tons [3] 现货市场 - SMM 0 Zinc Spot Price: 22,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 Zinc Spot Price: 22,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - ZN Main Contract Basis: - 25 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [3] - LME Zinc Premium (0 - 3): 26.76 US dollars/ton, down 3.41 US dollars [3] - Kunming 50% Zinc Concentrate Factory - delivered Price: 16,970 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [3] - Shanghai 85% - 86% Broken Zinc Price: 15,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - WBMS: Zinc Supply - demand Balance (monthly): - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons [3] - ILZSG: Zinc Supply - demand Balance (monthly): - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons [3] - ILZSG: Global Zinc Mine Production (monthly): 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons [3] - Domestic Refined Zinc Production (monthly): 617,000 tons, down 11,000 tons [3] - Zinc Ore Imports (monthly): 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] Industry Situation - Refined Zinc Imports (monthly): 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons [3] - Refined Zinc Exports (monthly): 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons [3] - Zinc Social Inventory (weekly): 159,600 tons, up 15,500 tons [3] Downstream Situation - Galvanized Sheet Production (monthly): 2,320,000 tons, down 130,000 tons [3] - Galvanized Sheet Sales (monthly): 2,340,000 tons, down 120,000 tons [3] - New Housing Starts (monthly): 352,060,000 square meters, up 48,416,800 square meters [3] - Housing Completions (monthly): 250,340,000 square meters, up 24,673,900 square meters [3] - Automobile Production (monthly): 2,510,000 vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles [3] - Air - conditioner Production (monthly): 19,678,800 units, up 3,476,400 units [3] Option Market - Implied Volatility of Zinc At - the - money Call Options: 15.74%, up 2.41 percentage points [3] - Implied Volatility of Zinc At - the - money Put Options: 15.75%, up 2.41 percentage points [3] - 20 - day Historical Volatility of Zinc At - the - money Options: 6.3%, down 0.01 percentage points [3] - 60 - day Historical Volatility of Zinc At - the - money Options: 11.05%, down 0.01 percentage points [3] Group 5: Industry News - In August, China's social consumer goods retail growth slowed to 3.4%, and the retail growth of household appliances and audio - visual equipment slowed to 14.3%. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with good growth in the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries. From January to August, national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5%, and manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%. From January to August, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year - on - year. The macro - economic situation shows "sluggish industry, weak investment, and tepid consumption", and the expectation of a new round of policy easing is rising [3]. - The US has lowered the import tariff on Japanese cars to 15% starting from 0:01 on September 16, Eastern Time [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation in China shows characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and dull consumption", and expectations of a new round of policy easing are rising. Technically, with reduced positions and price adjustments, long - short trading is cautious and faces resistance at previous highs. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel is 122,610 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the spread between the October - November contracts is - 200 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,425 US dollars/ton, up 45 US dollars/ton. The main contract's open interest is 66,538 lots, down 4,072 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 29,541 lots, down 1,273 lots. LME nickel inventory is 224,484 tons, down 600 tons. The SHFE nickel inventory is 27,500 tons, up 514 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 7,974 tons, down 600 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Nickel is 26,167 tons, up 1,208 tons [3] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 123,600 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 123,500 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 990 yuan/ton, up 570 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 185.68 US dollars/ton, down 14.48 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 5.0058 million tons, up 659,200 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 13.8616 million tons, up 779,300 tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 63.77 US dollars/ton, down 2.08 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,000 metal tons, down 200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, up 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 835,900 tons, down 205,500 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7379 million tons, up 39,800 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 564,000 tons, down 13,400 tons [3] Industry News - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail slowed to 3.4%, and the growth rate of household appliances and audio - visual equipment retail slowed to 14.3%. The year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5.2%, and the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries showed good momentum. From January to August, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5%, and manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%. From January to August, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year - on - year. The US has lowered the import tariff on Japanese cars to 15% starting from 0:01 on the 16th, Eastern Time [3] 观点总结 - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable. The supply of Philippine nickel ore has recovered, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and raw materials are in a tight situation. In the smelting sector, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable in July, the output of a few smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output. On the demand side, the profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and steel mills have increased production; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, downstream buyers mainly purchase on dips, the spot premium remains stable, domestic inventory increases, and overseas LME inventory accumulates [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The sugar sales data in August was lower than the same period in previous years, but the inventory remained relatively low. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in the country were 9.9998 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.1388 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 89.59%, a year-on-year increase of 0.65 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 116,230 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6,010 tons. The downstream is in the double - festival stocking stage, and it is expected that rigid demand will support prices. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5,547 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; the main contract position was 385,623 lots, an increase of 4,016 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 11,268, a decrease of 57; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 59,144 lots, a decrease of 3,792 lots. The effective warehouse receipt forecast was 0 [2] Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,418 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 4,376 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,611 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 5,556 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou were 5,865 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan), 5,890 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 5,970 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - cane planting area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 449,800 tons. The national industrial sugar inventory was 304,830 tons, a decrease of 81,430 tons; the national sugar sales rate was 85.59%, an increase of 1 percentage point. The monthly sugar import volume was 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The total sugar exports from Brazil were 3.744 million tons, an increase of 150,300 tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 1,402 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan. The price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) for Brazilian sugar was 167 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 222 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 410,000 tons, an increase of 73,000 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.7966 million tons, a decrease of 46,200 tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 8.39%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points; that of put options was 8.43%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility was 5.54%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.28%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of September 9, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 139,610 lots, an increase of 53,805 lots from the previous week. The long position was 170,080 lots, a decrease of 14,220 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 309,690 lots, an increase of 39,585 lots from the previous week. Indonesia has suspended issuing raw sugar import licenses for the rest of the year. The most actively traded October raw sugar futures on ICE rose 0.21 cents, or 1.30%, to settle at 16.0 cents per pound [2]