1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The policy - side positives have basically been realized, and the easing of Sino - US trade tensions is reflected in prices. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. New construction area has dropped significantly, and the year - on - year decline in completed and under - construction areas remains large. Last week, steel production increased, factory inventories rose, social inventories continued to fall, total inventory decreased, and apparent demand declined. The rumored production cuts have limited impact on the market. Steel enterprises think the industry needs to cut production, but lack the motivation. The market is shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and weak expectations may not have changed substantially. Technically, prices have broken through the recent oscillation range downward. [3] - **Iron Ore**: The profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, but the iron - water output of 247 steel mills decreased last week, and the decline rate has widened. Iron - water output is higher than last year's level and peak. If production - limit policies are introduced, it will further suppress iron - ore demand. With the end of the downstream consumption peak, steel apparent demand has declined, and iron - water output is expected to fall further. On the supply side, global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The decline rate of port inventories is slowing, and the proportion of trade - mine inventories is high, putting pressure on futures prices. Technically, futures prices have fallen significantly but are still within the recent oscillation range and may break downward under the influence of falling rebar prices. [5] 3. Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Data**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have generally declined. For example, the rebar主力合约收盘价 is 2980 yuan/ton, down 2.55% from last week; the hot - rolled coil主力合约收盘价 is 3111 yuan/ton, down 2.84% from last week. [3] - **Basis and Spread**: The rebar主力基差 is 150 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan from last week; the hot - rolled coil主力基差 is 89 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan from last week. Different futures spreads also show certain changes. [3] - **Production and Operation**: The blast - furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills is 84.15%, down 0.47% from last week; the average daily iron - water volume is 243.6 million tons, down 0.48% from last week. The proportion of profitable steel mills is 59.74%, up 0.43%. National building - material steel mill rebar production is 231.48 million tons, up 2.19% from last week; hot - roll production is 305.68 million tons, down 2.02% from last week. [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major steel products is 960.56 million tons, down 3.33% from last week; rebar social inventory is 416.46 million tons, down 4.24% from last week; hot - roll social inventory is 263.27 million tons, down 2.26% from last week. Factory inventories of five major steel products are 437.98 million tons, up 0.23% from last week. [3] - **Trading Volume**: The 7 - day moving average of the national building - steel trading volume is 15.91 million tons, down 17.28% from last week; the weekly terminal procurement volume of wire rods in Shanghai is 15,500 tons, down 11.93% from last week. [3] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered rebar warehouse receipts is 41,975 tons, down 9,650 tons; the number of registered hot - roll warehouse receipts is 167,722 tons, down 75,934 tons. [3] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron - ore主力 contract is 698.5 yuan/dry ton, down 3.66% from last week. Spot prices of various iron - ore powders have also declined to different degrees. [5] - **Basis and Spread**: The DCE iron - ore futures 9 - 1 spread is 34 yuan/dry ton, down 2.0 yuan from last week; the 1 - 5 spread is 19 yuan/dry ton, down 3.5 yuan from last week. [5] - **Supply - Side Data**: Australian iron - ore shipments are 1771.1 million tons, up 7.41% from last week; Brazilian iron - ore shipments are 725.6 million tons, down 3.40% from last week. The total arrival volume at six northern ports is 1058.8 million tons, up 0.09% from last week. [5] - **Inventory Data**: The total port inventory is 13,987.83 million tons, down 1.26% from last week; the port trade - mine inventory is 9581.41 million tons, down 1.41% from last week. The total inventory of imported sintering powder ore of 64 sample steel mills is 1243.52 million tons, down 3.86% from last week. [5] - **Production Data**: The daily output of iron concentrate powder of 186 national sample mines is 50.09 million tons, up 0.42% from last week. [5] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of iron - ore futures warehouse receipts is 1900 hands, down 400 hands. [5] Industry News China's 47 - port imported iron - ore inventory is 14,463.79 million tons, down 163.84 million tons from last Monday. From May 19th to May 25th, 2024, the total iron - ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1417.4 million tons, up 41.1 million tons from the previous period, showing a slight inventory - building trend, and the current inventory is at the maximum since the beginning of the year. [7]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 3、伊朗将6月销往亚洲的轻质原油的价格定位较阿曼/迪拜均价升水1.80美元/桶。 4、据CME"美联储观察"：美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为94.4%，降息25个基点的概率为5.6%。美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为74.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为 23.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.1%。 5、当地时间5月26日，德国总理默茨表示，德国和欧盟国家将会继续支持乌克兰，德国及其盟友已不再限制援助乌克兰武器的射程。俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫26日回应默 茨的言论说，如果欧洲国家取消向乌克兰提供远程打击武器的限制，这将是相当危险的举动，这将与俄罗斯调解乌克兰问题的意向背道而驰。乌克兰总统泽连斯基将于28日访 问德国，默茨计划与泽连斯基讨论俄乌和平谈判的可能性。（央视） 更新时间：2025年05月27日08时14分 | 原油 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 指标 | 单位 5月26日 较上日 | | | 较上周 | | | | 绝对值 百分比 绝对值 | | | | 百分比 | | Sc 原 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and weak expectations may not have changed substantially. For steel products, it is recommended to short and conduct short - term trading, with an exit strategy if the price rebounds into the recent trading range. For iron ore, if a production - restriction policy is introduced in the future, it will further suppress demand, and the current port inventory decline is slowing down, exerting pressure on futures prices [2][4] 3. Summary by Directory I. Threaded Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: Policy - side positives have basically been realized, and the easing of Sino - US trade tensions is reflected in prices. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. New construction area has dropped significantly, and the year - on - year decline in completed and under - construction areas remains large. Last week, steel production increased, factory inventory rose, social inventory continued to decline, total inventory decreased, and apparent demand declined. Rumors of production restrictions had limited impact on the market. Steel enterprises believe that the industry needs to cut production, but lack the motivation to do so voluntarily [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The price has broken through the recent trading range downward [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short and conduct short - term trading. If the price rebounds into the recent trading range, close the short position in time [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Threaded bar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have declined. For example, the threaded bar futures contract closed at 3004 yuan/ton, down 2.12% from last week; the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3138 yuan/ton, down 2.15% from last week [3] - **Production and Inventory**: 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate was 84.15%, down 0.47 percentage points from last week; daily average pig iron output was 243.6 million tons, down 0.48% from last week. National building material steel mills' threaded bar production was 231.48 million tons, up 2.19% from last week; hot - rolled coil production was 305.68 million tons, down 2.02% from last week. Five major steel products' social inventory was 960.56 million tons, down 3.33% from last week; factory inventory was 437.98 million tons, up 0.23% from last week [3] II. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable. Last week, the pig iron output of 247 steel mills exceeded 2.436 billion tons, with a larger decline rate compared to the previous period. If a production - restriction policy is introduced in the future, it will further suppress iron ore demand. As the downstream consumption peak has ended and the apparent demand for steel has declined, it is expected that pig iron production will further decline in the near future. On the supply side, global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The current port inventory decline is slowing down, and the proportion of traded ore inventory is relatively high, exerting pressure on futures prices [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has dropped significantly but is still within the recent trading range [4] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Iron ore spot and futures prices have declined. For example, the DCE iron ore futures contract settled at 706.5 yuan/dry ton, down 2.21% from last week; the SGX iron ore contract settled at 97.07 US dollars/dry ton, down 4.07% from last week [4] - **Supply and Demand**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1.7711 billion tons, up 7.41% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 725.6 million tons, down 3.40% from last week. The total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.0588 billion tons, up 0.09% from last week; the average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 343.19 million tons, up 1.06% from last week. Port inventory was 13.98783 billion tons, down 1.26% from last week [4] III. Industry News - Coking enterprises decided to avoid blind production increases, control production to stabilize coke prices, and appropriately reduce coal inventory. Steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin initiated a second round of coke price cuts of 50 - 55 yuan/ton [6] - The total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2.3441 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 637,000 tons; at 45 ports, it was 2.1513 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 million tons; at six northern ports, it was 1.0588 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 1 million tons [6] - The global iron ore shipment volume was 3.1887 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.591 billion tons. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2.7292 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 231,000 tons. Australia's shipment volume was 1.9708 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.43 billion tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1.7425 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.635 billion tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 758.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 million tons [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed is likely to remain cautious about rate cuts in June and July. The market generally expects the Fed to maintain a prudent stance on rate cuts. There are also uncertainties in the US - EU trade negotiations after Trump's tariff announcement, and there are concerns about the impact of US Treasury bond maturities on the market [2]. - OPEC+ is likely to increase production, but the timing of the supply increase needs data verification. The demand in the US may enter a peak season, and the overall supply - demand situation of crude oil is under pressure [2]. - Geopolitical negotiations in regions such as Russia - Ukraine, US - Iran, and Gaza are progressing slowly, with a possibility of causing disturbances [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Market Data - **Crude Oil Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 23, SC crude oil futures were at 452.80 yuan/barrel, down 0.20% from the previous day and 0.75% from the previous week. WTI was at 61.76 dollars/barrel, up 1.56% from the previous day but down 1.17% from the previous week. Brent was at 65.03 dollars/barrel, up 1.56% from the previous day and down 0.46% from the previous week [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The SC - WTI spread was 1.20 dollars/barrel, down 47.59% from the previous day but up 29.60% from the previous week. The Brent - WTI spread was 3.27 dollars/barrel, with a significant change of - 451.20% from the previous day and - 270.82% from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory Data**: Strategic petroleum reserves were 400.49 million barrels, up 0.21% from the previous level. EIA US commercial crude oil inventories were 443.16 million barrels, up 0.30% from the previous week, and Cushing crude oil inventories were 23.44 million barrels, down 1.91% from the previous week [2]. - **Position Data**: Non - commercial net positions in CFTC were 18.64 million contracts, up 0.60% from the previous week, and commercial net positions were - 18.68 million contracts, up 1.06% from the previous week [2]. b. Fundamental Overview - **Supply**: OPEC+ is likely to increase production by 41.1 barrels per day in July, but the exact implementation time needs to be verified by data. Saudi Arabia may further increase production if other members do not comply with quotas [2]. - **Demand**: The US may enter a peak demand season, and data verification is needed [2]. - **Geopolitics**: Negotiations in the Russia - Ukraine, US - Iran, and Gaza regions are progressing slowly. Although the probability of large - scale conflict escalation is low, there is still a possibility of short - term intensification [2]. c. Operation Suggestions - Technically, after the oil price broke through the multi - year production - cut bottom, it is continuously testing the pressure level. The WTI around 64 dollars/barrel is still under pressure, and it shows a short - term strong operation trend. - In the medium - term, maintain the idea of short - selling on rallies, but be cautious of short - term upward movements. For those speculating on geopolitical changes, options can be considered [2]. d. Industry News - Trump agreed to extend the US - EU trade negotiation deadline to July 9 [3]. - OPEC+ will hold a JMMC meeting on Wednesday to discuss the possibility of a third consecutive production increase before the June 1 ministerial meeting [4]. - Iran's parliament members emphasized that uranium enrichment is Iran's "red line" and "inalienable right" and will not back down in negotiations with the US [4]. - The EU is considering removing about 20 banks from SWIFT, lowering the price cap on Russian oil, and banning the Nord Stream gas pipeline project [4]. - US drilling companies have reduced the number of oil and gas rigs for four consecutive weeks, reaching the lowest level since November 2021 [5]. - The market expects the Fed to maintain the interest rate in June with a probability of 94.4% and in July with a probability of 74.9% [5]. - The market expects the US April core PCE price index monthly rate to rise by 0.1% [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market generally believes the Fed will likely remain cautious about interest rate cuts in June and July. After the suspension of Sino - US tariffs, the market atmosphere is good, but the impact of tariffs on inflation remains to be seen. OPEC+ is likely to increase production, and the supply growth expectation is relatively certain, but the timing of the supply increase needs data verification. Geopolitical conflicts may be moving towards negotiation, but there is still a risk of short - term escalation. The demand side may enter the summer peak season, but if there is a significant increase in supply, the impact of seasonal demand on prices may be limited. Oil prices may fluctuate based on supply - demand expectations, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors [2]. - Technically, after the oil price broke through the multi - year production - cut bottom in a sharp decline, it is testing the resistance level for the second time. The weekly chart of US oil shows a state of breakdown, retest, and oscillation. The trading side should maintain the idea of selling on rallies, and short positions and put options should be held [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil Data - **Futures Prices**: On May 22, the price of Sc was 453.70 yuan/barrel, down 3.49% from the previous day and 1.52% from the previous week; WTI was 61.34 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 0.57% from the previous week; Brent was 64.03 dollars/barrel, down 0.85% from the previous day and 0.91% from the previous week [2]. - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was 65.60 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and up 2.37% from the previous week; Brent DTD was 65.36 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and up 0.54% from the previous week; Oman was 66.06 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and up 3.62% from the previous week; Dubai was 66.06 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and up 3.62% from the previous week; ESPO was 62.95 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and up 3.54% from the previous week [2]. - **Spreads**: The Sc - WTI spread was 1.76 dollars/barrel, down 56.12% from the previous day and 24.48% from the previous week; the Sc - Brent spread was - 0.93 dollars/barrel, down 221.10% from the previous day and up 54.93% from the previous week; the Brent - WTI spread was 2.69 dollars/barrel, up 249.87% from the previous day and down 547.59% from the previous week [2]. - **Sc Month - to - Month Spreads**: Sc_C1 - C2 was - 4.30 yuan/barrel, down 10.26% from the previous day and 272.00% from the previous week; Sc_C1 - C6 was 0.20 yuan/barrel, down 91.30% from the previous day and 97.89% from the previous week; Sc_C1 - C13 was 6.50 yuan/barrel, down 26.14% from the previous day and 61.76% from the previous week [2]. - **Ascending and Descending Premiums**: OPEC's basket of crude oil ascending premium was 1.57 dollars/barrel, up 101.28% from the previous day and down 270.65% from the previous week; Brent DTD descending premium was 1.33 dollars/barrel, down 10.14% from the previous day and 154.51% from the previous week; Oman ascending premium was 2.03 dollars/barrel, up 498.04% from the previous day and down 184.58% from the previous week [2]. - **Finished Product Spot Prices**: Diesel in East China was 6651.73 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day and 0.27% from the previous week; gasoline in East China was 7636.73 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous day and down 0.64% from the previous week [2]. - **Other Spreads**: Diesel in East China/Sc was 14.661070, up 3.87% from the previous day and 1.82% from the previous week; gasoline in East China/Sc was 16.832108, up 3.70% from the previous day and 0.89% from the previous week; diesel - gasoline in East China was - 985.00 yuan/ton, down 1.02% from the previous day and 6.36% from the previous week [2]. 2. Inventory Data - **Sc Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts were 402.90 million barrels, unchanged from the previous day; the strategic petroleum reserve was 400.49 million barrels, up 0.21% from the previous week [2]. - **EIA US Data**: Commercial crude oil was 443.16 million barrels, up 0.30% from the previous week; Cushing crude oil was 23.44 million barrels, down 1.91% from the previous week; gasoline was 225.52 million barrels, up 0.36% from the previous week; distillates were 104.13 million barrels, up 0.56% from the previous week [2]. 3. CFTC Position Data - Non - commercial net positions were 18.53 million contracts, up 5.63% from the previous week; commercial net positions were - 18.48 million contracts, down 2.35% from the previous week; non - reported net positions were - 0.05 million contracts, down 108.97% from the previous week [2]. 4. Industry News - The US is "not yet convinced" to accept the G7's proposal to lower the price cap on Russian crude oil. The EU proposed to lower the price cap to $50 per barrel, while Ukraine advocates lowering it to $30 per barrel. The US is open to further discussion [3]. - Iran warned Israel not to take any adventurous actions and will respond decisively to any threats or illegal actions. Yemen's Houthi rebels launched a hypersonic ballistic missile attack on Israel's Ben - Gurion International Airport, causing flight disruptions [4]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 2,000 to 227,000, indicating stable employment growth in May. Economists expect an increase in layoffs in the second half of 2025 due to import tariffs [5]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 94.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 5.4%. In July, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 73.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 25.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 1.2% [5]. - The US is negotiating with Hamas through intermediaries in Doha, Qatar, to promote a cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel. US President Trump is increasingly disappointed with Israel's handling of the Palestine - Israel issue [5]. - OPEC+ members are discussing whether to agree on another large - scale production increase at the June 1 meeting, and a daily production increase of 411,000 barrels in July is one of the options under discussion [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk of Trump's trade war persists, and the risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest are rising. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [1]. - The US has been downgraded by Moody's, and the auction of new 20 - year US bonds was cold, showing investors' concerns about the fiscal outlook. Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East are rising [1]. - Multiple Fed officials expect tariffs to push up prices. Despite the temporary cooling of the US - China trade war, fiscal uncertainty makes the US economic outlook still weak. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index is oscillating downward, and US bond yields are strong at a high level [1]. - The CRB commodity index is oscillating and rebounding, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term, oscillating at a high level in the medium - term, and rising in a step - like manner in the long - term [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals continued to rebound. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 1.22%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 1.06%. International gold prices such as Comex gold and London gold, and domestic gold prices such as Shanghai gold and gold T + D all showed an upward trend compared with the previous day and the previous week [1][2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3]. Silver - **Market Performance**: The price trend of silver is anchored to that of gold. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions were reduced, and iShare silver ETF added positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver decreased slightly. International and domestic silver prices also showed an upward trend compared with the previous day and the previous week [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The federal funds target rate ceiling, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25. M2 increased by 0.24 year - on - year. The 10 - year US real bond yield, US bond spreads (3 - month - 10 - year, 2 - year - 10 - year), and various interest rate spreads showed different degrees of change. The US dollar index decreased by 0.42 compared with the previous day and 1.41 compared with the previous week [7][9]. - **Inflation**: CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and core PCE price index all showed different degrees of change year - on - year and month - on - month. The 1 - year and 5 - year inflation expectations of the University of Michigan also changed [9]. - **Economic Growth**: GDP showed a decline both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The unemployment rate remained unchanged, and non - farm payrolls decreased by 0.08 [9]. - **Labor Market**: ADP employment decreased by 8.5, and the number of initial jobless claims remained unchanged. The number of job vacancies decreased by 31.6, and the number of Challenger corporate layoffs decreased by 16.98 [9]. - **Real Estate Market**: The NAHB housing market index decreased by 6, existing home sales decreased by 25, new home sales increased by 10, and new home starts increased by 12.4 [9]. - **Consumption**: Retail sales increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. Personal consumption expenditure increased month - on - month but decreased slightly year - on - year. The personal savings rate decreased by 0.2 [9]. - **Industry**: The industrial production index increased year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. Capacity utilization decreased by 0.11 [9]. - **Trade**: Exports decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, imports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The trade deficit decreased by 1.73 [9]. - **Economic Surveys**: The ISM manufacturing PMI index decreased by 0.3, the ISM service PMI index increased by 0.8, the Markit manufacturing PMI index increased by 0.9, and the Markit service PMI index decreased by 2.9 [9]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves increased by 4.98 tons, while the US and the world's remained unchanged [9][11]. - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves**: The US dollar's share increased by 0.51, the euro's share decreased by 0.2, and the RMB's share remained basically unchanged [11]. - **Gold/ Foreign Exchange Reserves**: Globally, China, and the US all showed an increase in the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves [11]. - **Safe - Haven Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index increased by 21.94, and the VIX index decreased by 0.18 compared with the previous day but increased by 2.86 compared with the previous week [11]. - **Commodity Attributes**: The CRB commodity index increased by 0.39 compared with the previous day and 2.71 compared with the previous week. The offshore RMB exchange rate decreased slightly [11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from June 2025 to December 2026 is provided, showing a trend of gradual change in the expected interest rate range [12].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The Sino - US trade negotiation results briefly boosted market confidence, and policy - side benefits have basically materialized. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. Steel output has risen, inventories have declined, and apparent demand has rebounded. The market is shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and weak expectations may not have changed substantially. Technically, the short - term rally last week was followed by a downward trend this week, and the medium - term downward trend has entered a low - level oscillation phase [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, and steel billet exports are growing rapidly. Iron ore demand may be further suppressed if a production - restriction policy is introduced. The global supply of iron ore is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventories are decreasing at a slower pace, and the high proportion of trade ore inventories exerts pressure on futures prices. Technically, the price may enter an oscillation phase after a short - term rebound [5]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Conditions**: The Sino - US trade negotiation results briefly boosted confidence, and policy - side benefits fully materialized. The real estate market in core cities stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out, with new construction areas dropping significantly and completion and construction areas still showing large year - on - year declines [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, steel output increased, factory inventories decreased, social inventories continued to decline, total inventories dropped, and apparent demand rebounded. Steel mills believe the industry needs to cut production, but there is no incentive for voluntary production cuts [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: After a short - term sharp rebound last week, prices faced downward pressure this week, and the medium - term downward trend has entered a low - level oscillation phase [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see. Wait patiently for the price to complete bottom - building and then go long at low prices [2]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of thread steel and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices mostly declined compared to last week. For example, the closing price of the thread steel futures main contract was 3061 yuan/ton, down 2.11% from last week [3]. - **Production**: The output of national building material steel mills' thread steel was 226.53 million tons, up 1.34% from last week, while hot - rolled coil output was 311.98 million tons, down 2.62% [3]. - **Inventory**: Five major varieties of social inventories were 993.67 million tons, down 3.81% from last week. Thread social inventories were 434.88 million tons, down 6.55% [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, and steel billet exports are growing rapidly. The impact of the US tariff increase on steel exports has not yet emerged. Last week, the iron - water output of 247 steel mills exceeded 244.8 million tons, a decrease of 0.9 million tons from the previous week [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: If a production - restriction policy is introduced, it will further suppress iron ore demand. The global supply of iron ore is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventories are decreasing at a slower pace, and the high proportion of trade ore inventories exerts pressure on futures prices [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The price has fallen to near the long - term trend line, and a short - term rebound may indicate the end of the medium - term downward trend and the entry into an oscillation phase [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude [5]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore futures main contract was 728.5 yuan/dry ton, up 0.48% from the previous day and down 1.15% from last week [5]. - **Supply**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1648.9 million tons, up 2.94% from last week, and Brazilian shipments were 751.1 million tons, up 37.04% [5]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories totaled 14166.09 million tons, down 0.51% from last week, and port trade ore inventories were 9718.75 million tons, down 0.03% [5]. 3.3 Industry News As market sentiment faded, steel prices first rose and then fell. The price of Tangshan steel billet decreased by 50 yuan to 2930 yuan/ton. Steel mills' coke price reduction of 50 yuan was implemented. Iron ore spot prices rebounded. The average iron - water cost of Tangshan's mainstream sample steel mills decreased by 4 yuan to 2148 yuan/ton, and the average steel billet cost decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 2898 yuan/ton. The average profit of billet - making steel mills decreased by 46 yuan to 32 yuan/ton, the lowest in two months [7].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据： 上期所会员沪金净持仓排名前10 | | | 净多元 | | | | 学卒成 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名次 | 会员简称 | 净多車 | 增减 | 日比(%) | 名次 会员间挤 | 净空車 | 增减 | 日比(%) | | i | 前5名台计 | 86,094.00 | 8,317.00 | 18.82 | -- 前5名台计 | 21,783.00 | 1,280.00 | 4.76 | | -- | 前10名合计 | 116.513.00 | 7.206.00 | 25.46 | -- 前10名合计 | 30,273.00 | 1.714.00 | 6.62 | | -- | 前20名合计 | 135,888.00 | 8,499.00 | 29.70 | -- 前20名合计 | 34,993.00 | 2,505.00 | 7.65 | | | 1 中财期货 | 27.60 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in June and July, and the market generally believes the Fed will be cautious about rate cuts. After the suspension of Sino-US tariffs, the market sentiment is good, but the impact of tariffs on inflation remains to be observed. The market should also pay attention to the scale of US Treasury bonds this year and be sensitive to the potential sharp rise in Treasury yields [2]. - OPEC+ has decided to accelerate production increases and may continue to do so in July. The supply growth expectation is relatively certain, but when the supply increase will materialize needs data verification. The geopolitical conflicts in Russia-Ukraine, Israel, and Iran may move towards negotiation, with slow progress. The demand may enter the summer peak season, but if there is a significant supply increase, the impact of seasonal demand on prices may be limited. Overall, OPEC+ is likely to increase production, and oil prices may fluctuate based on supply and demand expectations, while also being affected by geopolitical factors [2]. - Oil prices are under overall pressure. There are differences in the rhythm of OPEC+ supply increases, and the market is waiting for Saudi Arabia's attitude. If oil prices are stable, the supply pressure may be released smoothly; if prices decline, it may lead to market share competition. Geopolitical negotiations are progressing slowly, and conflicts may be in a stalemate, with a possibility of short - term disturbances. The US Treasury yields fluctuate greatly, and attention should be paid to the impact of Treasury bond maturities on the market [2]. - From a technical perspective, after oil prices broke through the multi - year production cut bottom, they rebounded to test the pressure level. WTI crude oil shows pressure around $64 per barrel. The trading strategy is to maintain a short - selling approach in the medium term and consider short positions or adding put options when prices rise back to the production cut bottom range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On May 19th, Sc was at 462.80 yuan/barrel, down 9.80 yuan (-2.07%) from last week; WTI was at $62.15 per barrel, down $0.34 (-0.54%) from the previous day and up $0.19 (0.31%) from last week; Brent was at $65.48 per barrel, up $0.49 (0.75%) from last week [2]. - **Price Spreads**: Sc - WTI was $2.20 per barrel, up 137.96% from the previous day and down 39.13% from last week; Sc - Brent was -$1.13 per barrel, down -41.12% from the previous day and -291.44% from last week; Brent - WTI was $3.33 per barrel, down -273.96% from the previous day and up 465.58% from last week [2]. - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at $64.08 per barrel, down $1.30 (-1.99%) from last week; Brent DTD was at $65.01 per barrel, down $1.06 (-1.60%) from last week; Oman was at $63.75 per barrel, down $1.51 (-2.31%) from last week; Dubai was at $63.75 per barrel, down $1.51 (-2.31%) from last week; ESPO was at $60.80 per barrel, down $0.30 (-0.49%) from last week [2]. - **Product Prices**: Diesel in East China was at 6592.82 yuan/ton, down 6.91 yuan from the previous day and up 14.27 yuan (0.22%) from last week; gasoline in East China was at 7640.82 yuan/ton, down 23.18 yuan (-0.30%) from the previous day and down 54.27 yuan (-0.71%) from last week [2]. 3.2 Inventory and Position Data - **Inventory**: Sc warehouse receipts were 402.90 million barrels; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve was 399.65 million barrels, up 0.53 million barrels (0.13%) from the previous week; US commercial crude oil was 441.83 million barrels, up 3.45 million barrels (0.79%) from the previous week; Cushing crude oil was 23.89 million barrels, down 1.07 million barrels (-4.28%) from the previous week; gasoline was 224.71 million barrels, down 1.02 million barrels (-0.45%) from the previous week; distillates were 103.55 million barrels, down 3.16 million barrels (-2.96%) from the previous week [2]. - **Positions**: Non - commercial net positions were 18.53 million contracts, up 0.99 million contracts (5.63%) from the previous week; commercial net positions were -18.48 million contracts, down 0.42 million contracts (2.35%) from the previous week; non - reported net positions were -0.05 million contracts, down 0.56 million contracts (-108.97%) from the previous week [2]. 3.3 Industry News - The European Commission's Trade Commissioner will propose to the G7 finance ministers this week to lower the current $60 per - barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil to $50 per barrel [3]. - Trump and Putin agreed to continue dialogue and plan a future meeting, while there is no time frame for a possible Russia - Ukraine ceasefire [3]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky is willing to have direct negotiations with Russia but will not compromise on territorial issues [4]. - Angola's oil exports are expected to increase to 1.02 million barrels per day in July [5]. - Goldman Sachs maintains its oil price forecasts for the rest of 2025 and 2026, and raises its Iran oil supply forecast from the second half of 2025 to 2026 to 3.6 million barrels per day [5]. 3.4 Macroeconomic News - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 91.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 8.6%. In July, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 66.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 30.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 2.3% [6]. - Dallas Fed President Logan suggests the Fed strengthen mechanisms to prevent money market rate spikes, encourage banks to use the discount window, and focus on broader market rates [6]. - Fed's Bostic expects to cut interest rates once this year and may act earlier if trade negotiations go well [6]. - JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon does not rule out the possibility of the US economy entering stagflation and points out that the US debt - to - GDP ratio is too high [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The outcome of the China - US trade negotiations far exceeded market expectations, boosting market confidence. The poor credit data in April confirmed the necessity of significant measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the policy - side positives have basically materialized. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while the low - tier city real estate market is still in the bottom - building process. The market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, with short - term support from the significant mutual tariff reduction between China and the US, but the weak expectations may not have changed substantially [2]. - Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, and steel billets have good profits with high export growth. The molten iron production is in a recovery trend, but if a production restriction policy is introduced in the future, it will further suppress iron ore demand. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The slowdown in port inventory decline and the high proportion of trade ore inventory put pressure on futures prices. Short - term price rebounds are mainly boosted by the optimistic progress of trade negotiations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: The market has rebounded from the low level. The production has increased, factory inventories have declined, social inventories have continued to fall, total inventories have decreased, and apparent demand has recovered. The rumor of production restrictions has limited impact on the market, but the production side believes that the industry needs to reduce production [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: In the short - term, there has been a significant rebound, and the downward trend has entered a low - level oscillation [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see. After the negative factors are fully priced in and sufficient adjustments are made, consider going long at low prices. Be cautious about chasing up to prevent significant adjustments after the short - term positives are realized [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of threaded rod and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have shown certain changes compared to the previous day and week. For example, the closing price of the threaded rod main contract is 3082 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan (-1.15%) from the previous day and up 60 yuan (1.99%) from the previous week [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: The output of threaded rods has increased by 1.34% week - on - week, while the output of hot - rolled coils has decreased by 2.62% week - on - week. The social and factory inventories of both have declined [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mills' profitability is acceptable, and steel billet exports are growing rapidly. The molten iron production is in a recovery trend, but future production restriction policies may suppress iron ore demand. The supply side is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The slowdown in port inventory decline and high trade ore inventory ratio put pressure on prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The price has fallen to the long - term trend line and rebounded in the short - term, indicating that the medium - term downward trend may end and enter an oscillation or rebound phase [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Mainly judge based on technical trends. Hold short positions lightly and exit in time when the price is low in the future [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement prices of iron ore futures and spot prices have changed. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 728 yuan/dry ton, up 32 yuan (4.60%) from the previous week [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Australian iron ore shipments increased by 0.19% week - on - week, while Brazilian shipments decreased by 16.42% week - on - week. The port inventory decreased by 0.51% week - on - week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports decreased by 72.62 tons week - on - week, and the average daily port clearance volume increased by 8.68 tons. The total inventory in 47 ports decreased by 17.72 tons week - on - week, and the average daily port clearance volume increased by 11.08 tons [6]. - Mysteel research shows that the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.47 percentage points week - on - week, and the steel mill profitability rate increased by 0.44 percentage points week - on - week. The average daily molten iron output decreased by 0.87 tons week - on - week [6]. - According to Mysteel, mainstream steel mills in the Shandong market lowered the coke purchase price, with wet - quenched coke down 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down 55 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in the Shandong market also lowered the coke purchase price by 55 yuan/ton [7]. - SteelSilver e - commerce data shows that the total urban inventory this week is 772.11 tons, a decrease of 41.98 tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory of construction steel decreased by 26.88 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 12.82 tons [7].