投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间：2025年05月16日08时21分 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读： 中美贸易谈判结果远超市场预期，极大的提振了市场信心，螺纹从低位反弹。 4 月的信贷数据较差，印证降准降息等重磅举措的必要性 ，政策面利 多基本兑现。房地产方面，核心城市有所企稳，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。本周我的钢铁公布的数据显示，产量有所上升，厂库回落， 社库继续回落，总库存下降，表观需求回升。限产传闻对市场提振作用有限，但生产端认为今年大概率会有限产政策出台 。整体来看，目前市场逐 渐由强现实向弱现实转变，短线受中美大幅互减关税影响而得到提振 ，但弱预期可能还没有发生实质性的改变 。从技术上看，短线大幅反弹，下行 趋势进入低位震荡。 操作建议： 观望。耐心等待利空因素计价完毕之后，充分调整后可尝试逢低做多，谨慎追涨，以防短线利多兑现后出现大幅调整 ； 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 数据类别 指标 单位 最新 较上日 较上周 期现货价格 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3118 -9 -0.29% 66 2.16% 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3260 -7 -0.21% 69 2.16 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年05月15日16时44分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属大幅回落，沪金主力收跌3.20%，沪银主力收跌2.34%。①核心逻辑，短期特朗普贸易战风险阶段兑现，贸易协议分批 达成；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储对降息维持谨慎态度。②避险属性方面，特朗普对等关税兑现，美国和中国宣布达成降低关 税的临时协议，避险情绪降温。特朗普会见叙利亚总统，敦促与以色列建立关系，地缘异动短期缓和。③货币属性方面，美国4月 消费者物价温和上涨，创四年来最小年涨幅。美联储副主席杰斐逊表示，预计关税将导致经济放缓，通胀前景不明朗。目前市场预 期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间跌至50基点左右。美元指数反弹遇阻，美债收益率震荡上行；④商品属性方面， CRB商品指数震荡反弹，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金强银弱，中期偏弱震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金主 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年05月15日08时19分 报告导读： 中美贸易谈判结果远超市场预期，极大的提振了市场信心，螺纹从低位反弹。 4 月的信贷数据较差，印证降准降息等重磅举措的必要性 ，政策面利 多基本兑现。房地产方面，核心城市有所企稳，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。上周我的钢铁公布的数据显示，产量有所回落，厂库大量增 加，社库继续回落，总库存回升，表观需求大幅下降。库存的回升和表观需求的下降打压多头情绪 。限产传闻对市场提振作用有限，但生产端认为 今年大概率会有限产政策出台。整体来看，市场由强现实向弱现实转变，短线受中美大幅互减关税影响而得到提振 ，但弱预期可能还没有发生实质 性的改变。从技术上看，短线大幅反弹，下行趋势进入低位震荡。 操作建议： 观望。耐心等待利空因素计价完毕之后，充分调整后可尝试逢低做多，谨慎追涨，以防短线利多兑现； | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | ...

投资咨询系列报告 | 原油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 较上日 较上周 | 单位 | 5月14日 | | | | | | | 绝对值 百分比 绝对值 百分比 | | | | | | | | 原油期货 | Sc | 元/桶 | 479.30 | 8.80 | 1.87% | 11.10 | 2.37% | | | WTI | 美元/桶 | 62.89 | -0.74 | -1.16% | 4.94 | 8.52% | | | Brent | 美元/桶 | 65.85 | -0.75 | -1.13% | 4.90 | 8.04% | | 内外价差 | Sc-WTI | 美元/桶 | 3.72 | 1.99 | 115.61% | -3.35 | -47.41% | | | Sc-Brent | 美元/桶 | 0.76 | 2.00 | -161.08% | -3.31 | -81.34% | | | Brent-WTI Sc_C1-C2 | 美元/桶 元/桶 | 2.96 7.30 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold and silver show different trends today, with Shanghai gold's main contract closing down 0.11% and Shanghai silver's main contract closing up 0.16%. [1] - In the short - term, the risk of Trump's trade war is partially realized, and trade agreements are reached in batches. The risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, and the Fed remains cautious about interest rate cuts. [1] - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump's reciprocal tariffs are implemented, and the US and China reach a temporary agreement to reduce tariffs, leading to a gradual increase in risk - aversion sentiment. There are still variables in geopolitical situations. [1] - Regarding the monetary attribute, the US consumer prices rose moderately in April, with the smallest annual increase in four years. The inflation outlook is still unclear under the background of tariffs. The market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 drops to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuate upwards. [1] - In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index rebounds with fluctuations, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will continue to show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short - term, fluctuate weakly in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. Recently, the net long position of CFTC silver has been reduced again, and the iShare silver ETF has slightly increased its position. The visible inventory of silver has slightly increased recently. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Price Data**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $3254.50 per ounce, up $12.70 (0.39%) from the previous day and down $187.30 ( - 5.44%) from last week. London gold closed at $3227.95 per ounce, down $7.45 ( - 0.23%) from the previous day and down $163.50 ( - 4.82%) from last week. Shanghai gold's main contract closed at 761.72 yuan per gram, down 5.96 yuan ( - 0.78%) from the previous day and down 41.78 yuan ( - 5.20%) from last week. [2] - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex gold's position is 452,414 lots (100 ounces per lot), down 12,937 lots ( - 2.78%) from last week. Shanghai gold's main contract position is 214,778 kilograms, up 197 kilograms (0.09%) from the previous day and up 26,470 kilograms (14.06%) from last week. The LBMA gold inventory is 8,536 tons, up 47 tons (0.56%) from last week. [2] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [3] 3.2 Silver - **Price Data**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $33.09 per ounce, up $0.30 (0.90%) from the previous day and down $0.34 ( - 1.03%) from last week. London silver closed at $32.98 per ounce, up $0.96 (3.00%) from the previous day and down $0.05 ( - 0.14%) from last week. Shanghai silver's main contract closed at 8,195 yuan per kilogram, down 50 yuan ( - 0.61%) from the previous day and down 57 yuan ( - 0.69%) from last week. [5] - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex silver's position is 140,261 lots (5000 ounces per lot), down 12,408 lots ( - 8.13%) from last week. Shanghai silver's main contract position is 4,211,520 kilograms, up 136,560 kilograms (3.35%) from the previous day and up 756,210 kilograms (21.89%) from last week. The total visible inventory is 41,026 tons, down 39 tons ( - 0.09%) from the previous day and down 24 tons ( - 0.06%) from last week. [5] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [5] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, down 0.25 percentage points. The discount rate is 4.50%, down 0.25 percentage points. The reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, down 0.25 percentage points. The Fed's total assets are $6,762.072 billion, up $2.22 billion (0.00%) from last week. [7] - **US Economic Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.61%, up 0.07 (2.76%) from the previous day and up 0.10 (3.98%) from last week. The US dollar index is 100.97, down 0.82 ( - 0.81%) from the previous day and up 1.73 (1.75%) from last week. [7] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index is 203.61, down 52.14 ( - 20.39%) from last week. The VIX index is 18.25, up 0.03 (0.16%) from the previous day and down 5.30 ( - 22.51%) from last week. The CRB commodity index is 300.53, up 5.00 (1.69%) from the previous day and up 10.77 (3.72%) from last week. [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has been significantly boosted by the better - than - expected results of the China - US trade negotiation, causing the rebar to rebound from its low level. However, the increase in inventory and the decline in apparent demand have dampened bullish sentiment. The market is shifting from strong reality to weak reality, with short - term support from the significant tariff reduction between China and the US, but the weak expectation remains unchanged. For rebar and hot - rolled coils, it is advisable to wait and see, and consider buying at low prices after full adjustment [2]. - Currently, the profitability of steel mills is decent, and the molten iron is in a recovery trend. However, the apparent demand for steel has declined significantly, and it is expected that the molten iron production has likely peaked. If a production restriction policy is introduced in the future, it will further suppress the demand for iron ore. On the supply side, global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The current slowdown in port inventory decline and the high proportion of trade ore inventory put pressure on futures prices. For iron ore, it is recommended to mainly rely on technical analysis, hold short positions lightly, and exit at low prices in a timely manner [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils 3.1.1 Market Background - The results of the China - US trade negotiation have far exceeded market expectations, boosting market confidence. The production has decreased, factory inventory has increased significantly, social inventory has continued to decline, total inventory has increased, and apparent demand has dropped sharply. Policy - side benefits have basically materialized, and the real - estate market in core cities has stabilized while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. The rumor of production restriction has limited impact on the market, but the production side believes that a production restriction policy is likely to be introduced this year [2]. 3.1.2 Technical Analysis - In the short term, there has been a significant rebound, and after a downward trend, it has entered a low - level oscillation [2]. 3.1.3 Operation Suggestion - Adopt a wait - and - see approach. After the negative factors are fully priced in and full adjustment, consider buying at low prices. Be cautious about chasing up to avoid short - term profit - taking [2]. 3.1.4 Data Overview - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract is 3079 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day and up 0.06% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3215 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous day and up 0.59% from last week. Other related spot and futures prices also show different changes [2]. - **Base and Spread Data**: The rebar main base is 141 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day and 8 yuan from last week; the hot - rolled coil main base is 45 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from the previous day and up 1 yuan from last week. There are also various changes in different futures spreads [2]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: The national building materials steel mill rebar production is 223.53 tons, down 4.22% from last week; the hot - rolled coil production is 320.38 tons, up 2.79% from last week. The inventory of five major varieties of social inventory, rebar social inventory, hot - rolled coil social inventory, and five major varieties of factory inventory shows different trends of increase and decrease [2]. - **Market Transaction Data**: The 7 - day moving average of the national building steel trading volume is 18.65 tons, down 17.68% from the previous day and up 66.31% from last week; the line - screw terminal procurement volume in Shanghai is 13200 tons, down 9.59% from last week [2]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of registered rebar warehouse receipts is 148997 tons, down 19706 tons from the previous day and 42344 tons from last week; the number of registered hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts is 281489 tons, down 9957 tons from the previous day and 42000 tons from last week [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Background - The profitability of steel mills is good, and the molten iron production is in a recovery trend. However, the apparent demand for steel has declined significantly, and it is expected that the molten iron production has likely peaked. If a production restriction policy is introduced, it will suppress the demand for iron ore. On the supply side, global shipments are at a high level and rising seasonally, and the current slowdown in port inventory decline and high proportion of trade ore inventory put pressure on futures prices [4]. 3.2.2 Technical Analysis - The futures price has broken through the recent oscillation range, the open interest has continued to increase, and the price has dropped to near the long - term trend line [4]. 3.2.3 Operation Suggestion - Judge mainly based on technical trends, hold short positions lightly, and exit at low prices in a timely manner [4]. 3.2.4 Data Overview - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 714.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.56% from the previous day and up 1.42% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 99.51 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.49% from the previous day and up 3.95% from last week. Other related spot and futures prices also show different changes [4]. - **Base and Spread Data**: The base between McFadden powder (Qingdao Port) and the DCE iron ore main contract is 30.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day and down 3 yuan from last week; the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread is 31.5 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day and 6 yuan from last week. There are also various changes in different spreads [4]. - **Shipping and Inventory Data**: The Australian iron ore shipment is 1601.8 tons, up 0.19% from last week; the Brazilian iron ore shipment is 548.1 tons, down 16.42% from last week. The port inventory is 14238.71 tons, down 0.45% from last week [4]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of iron ore futures warehouse receipts is 3200 lots, unchanged from the previous day and last week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - According to Mysteel, some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to reduce the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on May 16, 2025 [6]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in early May, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities was 850 tons, a decrease of 35 tons (4.0%) from the previous period. The inventory decline rate has slightly narrowed, an increase of 191 tons (29.0%) from the beginning of the year, and a decrease of 305 tons (26.4%) from the same period last year [6]. - According to Mysteel, an alloy factory in Ulanqab, Inner Mongolia, has recently reduced production of two 33000KVA ferrosilicon - manganese alloy submerged arc furnaces, expected to affect the daily output by about 400 tons; a large ferrosilicon - manganese enterprise in Chongqing has shut down two submerged arc furnaces since 12:00 on May 12, 2025, and the resumption time is to be determined, affecting the daily output by 400 tons [6]. - According to Brazilian customs data, in April 2025, the total export volume of Brazilian manganese ore was 66600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 152.99% and a year - on - year increase of 23.68%. Among them, the export volume of manganese ore to China was 63800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2418.44% and a year - on - year increase of 245.28% [6].

铁矿石需警惕利空因素与价格 下跌趋势形成自我强化 作者：曹有明 从业资格号：F3038998 交易咨询号：Z0013162 邮箱：caoyouming@sd-gold.com 2025年5月12日星期一 ——山金期货铁矿石专题报告 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 数据来源：iFinD、山金期货投资咨询部 p 铁矿石期货价格已经跌至长期上行趋势线附近，如果期价继续下跌，很有可能形成向下的有效突破，将打 开下行空间。最近几个月价格下跌的过程中，持仓量不断增加。整体形势对多头很不利。 p 供应：随着南半球天气的好转，巴西和澳洲发运量已经回到正常的水平，且未来一段时间，发运量将继续 呈现季节性增加态势，国内到港量也将延续季节性增加的趋势，国内矿山的产量和库存在增加。 p 需求：目前样本钢厂铁水产量已经大幅高于去年同期，且高于去年的峰值水平。在整体需求预期偏弱的情 况下，如此高的铁水产量很难持续，预计今年铁水产量的峰值已经到来，后期下降的预期强烈，这意味着 今年铁矿石的需求高峰期已至，后市铁矿石需求回落概率大。另外，终端需求方面，上周钢材表观需求大 幅回落，今年的出口数据好于预期，但整体增幅在贸易战背景 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年05月12日16时49分 一、黄金 报告导读： | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金主力合约收盘价 | 美元/盎司 | 3329.10 | 18.70 | 0.56% | 81.70 | 2.52% | | | 伦敦金 | 美元/盎司 | 3324.55 | -27.75 | -0.83% | 74.85 | 2.30% | | 国内价格 | 沪金主力收盘价（上期所） | 元/克 | 772.28 | -16.14 | -2.05% | -8.02 | -1.03% | | | 黄金T+D收盘价（上金所） | 元/克 | 758.15 | -27.15 | -3.46% | -21.35 | -2.74% | | 基差与价差、比价 | 沪金主力-伦敦金 | 元/克 | -17.59 | -31.51 | -226% | -39.46 | -180% | | | 沪金主力 ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Shanjin Futures Crude Oil Daily Report - Update Time: May 7, 2025, 08:18 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The market expects that China and the US may reach a certain agreement on tariff issues, with a low risk of complete decoupling, but it may take time and this expectation is at least partially factored into trading. The market is also concerned about the US Treasury bond scale this year, which may significantly affect the US dollar index [2]. - After OPEC+ decided to accelerate production increases and even impose punitive production increases, Kazakhstan's consideration of complying with quotas was interpreted as positive, but data verification is still needed. The demand side may enter the summer peak season, but if there is a significant increase in supply, the impact of seasonal demand growth on prices may be limited. There is also a possibility that if the US Treasury bond scale stops growing, it may ultimately affect crude oil demand [2]. - Against the backdrop of falling oil prices, the probability of the Russia-Ukraine conflict moving towards negotiation is increasing, and the US-Iran negotiation is in progress, but external risks are rising. Overall, trading may return to supply-demand expectations, and OPEC+ is likely to increase production, putting pressure on oil prices, while being alert to potential positive geopolitical impacts [2]. - Overnight oil prices rebounded significantly, possibly due to the positive news of China and the US starting to discuss tariff issues and the support of geopolitical tensions. In the medium term, US crude oil broke below the previous production cut bottom range and continued to decline. The $56 per barrel level shows as a phased support, and the resistance may be around $63 per barrel. In the current situation of OPEC+ accelerating production increase expectations and difficult-to-find demand growth, oil prices may still be under pressure. The difference lies in that the new equilibrium price needs to be determined through trading, and the path to reach the new equilibrium is uncertain [2]. - From a technical analysis perspective, after oil prices plunged below the multi-year production cut bottom and rebounded to around $65 per barrel, a downward trend was formed again. The weekly chart of US crude oil has shown a pattern of breaking through, retesting, and then declining. The medium-term weak pattern is difficult to change, and the probability of a phased decline is increasing. The lower limit may point to $45 per barrel in the medium term. The short-term pressure has moved down to around $60.4 per barrel for US crude oil. In the medium term, the trading strategy should still be to sell on rallies. Aggressive investors can consider short positions and set stop-losses, or consider buying put options [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil Futures**: On May 6, SC crude oil was at 458.90 yuan per barrel, down 12.20 yuan (-2.59%) from the previous day and down 34.50 yuan (-6.99%) from the previous week; WTI was at $59.00 per barrel, up $0.78 (1.34%) from the previous day and down $3.77 (-6.01%) from the previous week; Brent was at $62.04 per barrel, up $1.00 (1.64%) from the previous day and down $4.46 (-6.71%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spot Crude Oil**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at $59.86 per barrel; Brent DTD was at $61.46 per barrel; Oman was at $59.56 per barrel; Dubai was at $59.56 per barrel; ESPO was at $55.43 per barrel [2]. - **Product Spreads**: The SC-WTI spread was $4.73 per barrel, down $2.47 (-34.30%) from the previous day and down $0.94 (-16.52%) from the previous week; the SC-Brent spread was $1.69 per barrel, down $2.69 (-61.42%) from the previous day and down $0.25 (-12.69%) from the previous week; the Brent-WTI spread was $3.04 per barrel, down $1.34 (-30.56%) from the previous day and up $1.11 (57.14%) from the previous week [2]. - **Product Spot**: Diesel in East China was at 6,559.45 yuan per ton, down 61.09 yuan (-0.92%) from the previous day and down 121.73 yuan (-1.82%) from the previous week; gasoline in East China was at 7,746.55 yuan per ton, down 65.27 yuan (-0.84%) from the previous day and down 142.64 yuan (-1.81%) from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The strategic petroleum reserve was 398.54 million barrels, up 1.07 million barrels (0.27%); EIA US commercial crude oil was 440.41 million barrels, down 2.70 million barrels (-0.61%); Cushing crude oil was 25.70 million barrels, up 0.68 million barrels (2.73%); gasoline was 225.54 million barrels, down 4.00 million barrels (-1.74%); distillates were 107.82 million barrels, up 0.94 million barrels (0.88%) [2]. - **CFTC Positions**: Non-commercial net positions were 17.72 million contracts, up 0.63 million contracts (5.52%); commercial net positions were -18.35 million contracts, down 0.96 million contracts; non-reportable net positions were 0.63 million contracts, up 0.34 million contracts (114.44%) [2]. Industry News - After being attacked by Israel, the Houthi armed forces in Yemen stated that they would not give up supporting the Gaza Strip at any cost and would launch a devastating counterattack [3]. - The European Commission will propose a new sanctions package against Moscow's shadow oil tanker fleet, aiming to increase pressure on Russia in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The proposed sanctions will cover 60 individuals and entities and include restrictions on about 150 ships [3]. - Kazakhstan is considering complying with its OPEC+ production cut obligations after Saudi Arabia reiterated that quota violators should comply with regulations [4]. - OPEC+ decided to increase daily production by an additional 411,000 barrels in June, which was regarded as a strategic change. Capital Economics lowered its year-end price forecast for Brent crude oil from $70 to $60 per barrel and the 2026 year-end forecast from $60 to $50 per barrel [4]. - The fourth round of Iran-US nuclear talks is expected to be held in Muscat, Oman, on May 11, but the Iranian Foreign Ministry has not confirmed this [4]. - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit Switzerland from May 9 - 12 and hold talks with the US Treasury Secretary. He will then go to France to co-chair the 10th China-France High-Level Economic and Financial Dialogue from May 12 - 16 [5]. - Pakistan and India have started exchanges of fire on the Line of Control in Pakistan-administered Kashmir [5]. - US API crude oil inventories for the week ending May 2 decreased by 4.494 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 0.854 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.974 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 2.242 million barrels [6]. - The EIA short-term energy outlook report expects the average prices of WTI crude oil this year and next year to be $61.81 and $55.24 per barrel respectively (previously $63.88 and $57.48 per barrel), and the average prices of Brent crude oil to be $65.85 and $59.24 per barrel respectively (previously $67.87 and $61.48 per barrel). It also expects global oil demand in 2025 to be 103.7 million barrels per day (previously 103.6 million barrels per day) and in 2026 to be 104.6 million barrels per day (previously 104.7 million barrels per day). US crude oil production in 2025 is expected to be 13.42 million barrels per day (previously 13.51 million barrels per day) and in 2026 to be 13.49 million barrels per day (previously 13.56 million barrels per day) [6]. - If the ongoing trade negotiations between the EU and the US do not yield satisfactory results, the EU plans to impose additional tariffs on about $113 billion worth of US goods [7]. - The Kremlin spokesman Peskov said that oil prices play a crucial role in Russia's budget and overall economy, but Russia's national interests are above all else. Russia is cooperating with OPEC+ to maintain oil prices at an optimal level [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current trade situation will have a negative impact on the downstream consumption and exports of steel products, but has limited impact on billet exports. The profit of billet is currently good. The Politburo meeting emphasized measures such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the State Council Information Office stated that major policies will be introduced in the second quarter, boosting market confidence. The real - estate market in core cities may gradually stabilize and recover, while the market in low - tier cities is still bottoming out. The downstream demand has entered the peak season in April, but high demand may not be sustainable, and the apparent demand will decline seasonally after the consumption peak. For steel futures, it is a short - term rebound, not a reversal [2]. - Policy factors have boosted market confidence. The downstream demand peak in April may support the futures price. The steel mill profitability is acceptable, and the molten iron production is in a recovery trend but may have peaked. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and may continue to rise, and the port inventory has been increasing, which exerts pressure on the futures price. The real - estate data shows a mixed situation in different - tier cities. Technically, the iron ore futures price has been falling and is weaker than that of rebar and hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: The trade situation affects steel consumption and exports. The Politburo meeting and policy announcements boost confidence. The real - estate market shows different trends in core and low - tier cities. The downstream demand in April is in the peak season, with rebar production, factory inventory, and social inventory decreasing last week, and the apparent demand falling month - on - month [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has risen in the past two days with a decline in positions, indicating a short - term rebound [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short on rallies, do not chase the rise [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have changed to varying degrees. For example, the rebar futures price increased by 0.90% compared to the previous day and 0.51% compared to last week [2]. - **Production**: The production of rebar decreased slightly by 0.05% week - on - week, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.99% [2]. - **Inventory**: The social and factory inventories of the five major steel products decreased. For example, the social inventory of the five major products decreased by 3.68% week - on - week [2]. II. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Policy boosts market confidence. The downstream demand peak in April may support prices. Steel mills have acceptable profitability, and molten iron production is in a recovery trend but may have peaked. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level and may continue to rise, and the port inventory has been increasing, exerting pressure on prices. The real - estate market shows different trends in different - tier cities [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has been falling and is weaker than that of rebar and hot - rolled coils [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Close short positions at low prices and then stay on the sidelines [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The prices of iron ore spot and futures have changed. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract increased by 0.21% compared to the previous day and decreased by 0.70% compared to last week [4]. - **Shipment**: Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments increased. For example, Australian shipments increased by 11.08% compared to last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased by 1.46% week - on - week [4]. III. Industry News - From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2679.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 230.4 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2512.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 187.5 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1159.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34.3 million tons [6]. - From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2758.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 320.7 million tons. Australian shipments were 1995.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 196.0 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1647.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 72.9 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 763.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 124.6 million tons. The global iron ore shipment volume was 3188.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 262.7 million tons [6]. - In the fourth week of April 2025, the total shipment of Brazilian iron ore was 2346.94 million tons, with an average daily shipment of 138.06 million tons per day, a 2.49% increase compared to April last year [6].