1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The gold price is in a high - level oscillation this week, while the silver price has skyrocketed continuously, and the gold - silver ratio at a high level has rapidly corrected. It is expected that the gold - silver ratio will continue to decline in the short term, and investors should focus on the opportunity for silver to catch up in price. The market's expectation for the non - farm data is weak, and investors are advised to pay attention to the possibility of data exceeding expectations and conduct risk management in advance. [9][11] - The short - term trend of precious metals is oscillating with a slight upward bias, showing a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The medium - term trend is a high - level oscillation, and the long - term trend is a step - by - step upward movement. [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Property Analysis 3.1.1. Safe - haven Attribute - The safe - haven sentiment during Trump's trade war has been realized. The leaders of China and the United States had a phone call, agreeing to hold a new round of talks as soon as possible and extend mutual visit invitations. However, there are still risks of escalation in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, Russia - Ukraine, etc. [4] - The United States was downgraded by Moody's, completely leaving the top - tier AAA credit rating club. The demand for the $16 billion 20 - year bonds auctioned by the US Treasury was weak due to investors' concerns about the increasing US debt burden. The US debt scale has exceeded $36 trillion, and the deteriorating fiscal situation has intensified the market's doubts about the US dollar credit system. [4] 3.1.2. Monetary Attribute - The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the overall employment data has weakened. The market has reignited the expectation of an earlier interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. After the number of layoffs and the ADP employment data, the latest number of initial jobless claims in the US last week reached a seven - month high, and the import decline in April set a record. [5] - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected but hinted that its one - year easing cycle would pause after the inflation rate finally returned to the central bank's 2% target. Currently, the market expects the Federal Reserve to stabilize its next interest rate cut until September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. [5] 3.1.3. Commodity Attribute - Although the consumption of gold jewelry is suppressed by high prices, the investment demand for gold bars and other products offsets some of the impact. Emerging market central banks, including the People's Bank of China, are implementing a "de - dollarization" strategy, which keeps the central bank's gold purchase demand at a high level. [5] - The CRB commodity index has faced pressure in its rebound from a low level, and the continuous appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic precious metal prices. The easing of the trade war is expected to promote the recovery of silver's industrial demand. [5] 3.1.4. Capital Flow - Recently, the CFTC managed funds have continuously reduced their net long positions in gold and continuously increased their net long positions in silver. In the domestic market, the net long positions in Shanghai gold have continuously increased, and the net long positions in Shanghai silver have remained at a high level. The world's largest gold ETF and silver ETF have ended their long - term downward trends and are slowly increasing their positions. [7] 3.2. Review of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Path from 2024 - 2025 - In 2024/5/1, the Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate unchanged, slowed down the pace of reducing the balance sheet from June 1st, and still expected inflation to decline gradually over time. [13] - In 2024/6/12, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate policy unchanged, and the updated dot - plot significantly reduced the expected number of interest rate cuts for the year. [13] - In 2024/7/31, the Federal Reserve continued to keep the interest rate unchanged, confirmed progress in reducing inflation, and indicated that an interest rate cut might be an option in September. [13] - In 2024/9/19, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and the target range of the benchmark interest rate was expected to be further reduced by the end of the year and in subsequent years. [14] - In 2024/11/7, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the statement removed the expression about "gaining confidence in the fight against inflation". [14] - In 2024/12/19, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the dot - plot showed that it was expected to cut interest rates only twice by the end of 2025. [14] - In 2025/1/29, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged for the first time since September 2024, and the policy statement removed the expression about "inflation making progress towards the target". [14] - In 2025/3/20, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged, planned to slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction from April 1st, and significantly lowered the economic growth forecast for 2025 while raising the inflation forecast. [14] - In 2025/5/7, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged, stating that the uncertainty of the economic outlook had further increased, and the risks of rising unemployment and inflation had both increased. [14] 3.3. Support and Resistance Levels - The support level for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 755 - 760, and the resistance level is 790 - 800. [9] - The support level for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8400 - 8430, and the resistance level is 9500 - 9530. [9]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年06月06日08时20分 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询系列报告 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 山金期货原油日报 | | | | 更新时间：2025年06月06日08时20分 | | | | | | 原油 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 6月5日 | | 较上日 | | | 较上周 | | | | | | | | | 绝对值 | 百分比 | | 绝对值 | 百分比 | | | | | | Sc | 元/桶 | 463.70 | | -4.50 | -0.96% | 10.70 | | 2.36% | | | | 原油期货 | WTI | 美元/桶 | 63.25 | | 0.51 | 0.81% | | 1.39 | 2.25% | | | | | Brent | 美元/桶 | 65.29 | | 0.38 | 0.59% | | 0.31 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise in a step - by - step manner in the long - term. The core logic includes the recurrence of Trump's trade war, the remaining risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes, the increasing risk of stagflation in the US economy, and the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has slightly increased recently. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.23%, while the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 0.01%. [1] - **Core Logic**: Short - term risks include the recurrence of Trump's trade war, economic recession, and geopolitical changes. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed is cautious about interest rate cuts. [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven**: Trump's latest metal tariffs have come into effect, and EU and US representatives reported rapid progress in trade dialogues. [1] - **Monetary**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that tariffs increase price pressure and US economic activity declines. The US labor market slows down, and the number of layoffs reaches the largest increase in nine months. The market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 drops to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuate weakly. [1] - **Commodity**: The CRB commodity index rebounds under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. [5] - **Capital and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. The visible inventory of silver has slightly increased recently. [5] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are 67241.46 billion US dollars. [8] - **Economic Indicators**: The ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.55%, the US dollar index is 98.82, and the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.57. [8] - **Inflation Data**: CPI (year - on - year) is 2.30%, core CPI (year - on - year) is 2.80%, and the PCE price index (year - on - year) is 2.15%. [9][10] - **Other Data**: Include data on the US labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys, as well as central bank gold reserves, gold/foreign exchange reserves, and various risk and commodity - related indices. [10][11][12] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The report provides the probability distribution of different federal funds target rate ranges in each meeting from June 2025 to December 2026 according to the CME FedWatch tool. [13]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间：2025年06月05日08时09分 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读： 消息面上，有传言称外蒙将上调煤炭资源税至 20%，目前尚没有该国官方消息发布。 特朗普将钢铝关税提高至 50%，可能对钢材出口形成更大的 压力。 目前政策面利多基本兑现，前期中美贸易紧张局势缓解也体现在价格中 。房地产仍处于筑底过程中，对钢材的需求仍边际减弱。上周我的钢 铁公布的数据显示，产量有所回落，厂库下降，社库继续回落，总库存下降，表观需求环比微幅上升，数据对期价有所提振。从需求的季节性规律 看，表观需求高峰期已过，随着雨季和高温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱。限产传闻对市场提振作用有限。钢企普遍认为，行业确实需要减产， 但近期钢企亏损状况有所改善，企业主动减产的动力偏弱。整体来看，目前市场逐渐由强现实向弱现实转变 ，弱预期也没有发生实质性的改变。从 技术上看，价格跌破了近期的震荡区间，形成向下的有效突破，短线在消息面刺激下的反弹不影响趋势的延续 。 操作建议： 空单持有 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term core logic is that Trump's trade war is fluctuating, the risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest are rising, the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [2]. - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and bullish in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: Short - term Trump trade war fluctuations, increased risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest, rising stagflation risk in the US economy, and the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [2]. - **Safe - haven Attribute**: Trump plans to raise import steel tariffs to 50% from June 4th. The EU may counter - retaliate if the US does not lower tariffs. The Russia - Ukraine - Istanbul peace talks broke down, and Iran may reject the US nuclear proposal [2]. - **Monetary Attribute**: The Fed acknowledges the potential simultaneous rise of inflation and unemployment. The US manufacturing industry continues to shrink under the shadow of tariffs. The market expects the next Fed rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index is under pressure and回调, while the US Treasury yield is oscillating strongly [2]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index is oscillating and rebounding, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [3]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price [6]. - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions, and the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [6]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are 67241.46 billion US dollars, showing a decrease compared to the previous period [9]. - **Inflation Data**: CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and other inflation - related indicators show certain changes, with some indicators decreasing [11]. - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP shows a decline in both annualized year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter terms. The unemployment rate remains stable, and other labor market indicators also have corresponding changes [11]. - **Other Data**: Data on the real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys all show different trends [11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate range at different meetings from 2025 to 2026 is provided, showing a general trend of gradually increasing the probability of lower interest rates over time [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - For the steel market, with Trump raising steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, there is greater pressure on steel exports. The policy - driven positive factors have basically been priced in. The real - estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. The peak of apparent demand has passed, and with the arrival of the rainy season and high - temperature weather, demand will further weaken. The market is shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and the weak expectation remains unchanged. Technically, prices have broken through the recent trading range and are expected to continue the downward trend [1]. - For the iron ore market, steel mills' profitability is acceptable, but iron - water production is expected to decline further due to the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel - mill production restrictions. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory decline is slowing down, and the high proportion of trade - mine inventory exerts pressure on futures prices. The futures price may break downward under the influence of falling steel prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Factors**: Trump's tariff increase, real - estate market conditions, demand seasonality, and limited impact of production - cut rumors. The market is changing from strong to weak reality, and prices are expected to continue falling [1]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions [1]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of threaded - steel and hot - rolled - coil futures and spot prices have declined. For example, the threaded - steel futures main - contract closing price is 2,928 yuan/ton, down 1.74% from last week [1]. - **Production**: The national building - materials steel - mill threaded - steel production is 225.51 tons, down 2.58% from last week, while hot - rolled - coil production is 319.55 tons, up 4.54% [1]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of five major steel products has decreased. For instance, the threaded - steel social inventory is 394.59 tons, down 5.25% from last week [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The national building - materials trading volume (7 - day moving average) is 13.95 tons, down 30.08% from last week [1]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Market Factors**: Steel mills' iron - water production is expected to decline. The global iron - ore shipment is rising seasonally, and port inventory decline is slowing. The futures price may break downward [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [3]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of DCE iron - ore futures main contract is 695.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.43% from last week. Spot prices of various iron - ore powders have also declined [3]. - **Shipment**: The global iron - ore shipment in the week of May 27 - June 2, 2025, is 3,431.0 tons, up 242.3 tons from the previous week [5]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore is 13,866.58 tons, down 0.87% from last week. The inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills is 1,210.52 tons, down 2.65% [3]. - **Shipping and Exchange Rates**: BCI freight rates have increased, and the US dollar index has risen 0.55% [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The policy-side positives for the steel market have basically been realized, and the easing of Sino-US trade tensions is also reflected in prices. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower-tier cities is still bottoming out, with new construction area significantly declining and completion and construction areas still showing large year-on-year drops. The market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and the weak expectation may not have changed substantially. Technically, steel prices have broken through the recent trading range and are expected to continue the downward trend [1]. - Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production cuts, iron ore demand is expected to decline. On the supply side, global shipments are relatively high and rising seasonally. The slowdown in port inventory decline and the high proportion of trade ore inventory put pressure on futures prices. The iron ore futures price is within the recent trading range and may break downwards driven by the decline in steel prices [3]. Summary by Directory I. Threaded Rods and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: Policy-side positives are realized, real estate in core cities stabilizes while lower-tier cities are bottoming out. Demand is expected to weaken with the arrival of the rainy season and high temperatures. The impact of production cut rumors is limited, and steel mills' initiative to cut production is weak [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: Prices have broken through the recent trading range and are expected to continue the downward trend [1]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions [1]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of threaded rods and hot-rolled coils have declined. For example, the threaded rod futures price dropped by 2.79% compared to last week, and the hot-rolled coil futures price dropped by 3.54% [1]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill threaded rod production decreased by 2.58% week-on-week, while the hot-rolled coil production increased by 4.54% [1]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 2.92% week-on-week, with the threaded rod social inventory dropping by 5.25% and the hot-rolled coil social inventory dropping by 2.08% [1]. II. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mills' iron water production is expected to decline further. The supply is relatively high, and the port inventory decline is slowing down with a high proportion of trade ore inventory [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is within the recent trading range and may break downwards driven by the decline in steel prices [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [3]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The prices of various iron ore varieties have declined. For example, the price of Mac fines at Qingdao Port dropped by 2.46% compared to last week [3]. - **Shipments**: Australian iron ore shipments increased by 7.41% week-on-week, while Brazilian shipments decreased by 3.40% [3]. - **Inventory**: The total port inventory decreased by 0.87% week-on-week, and the port trade ore inventory decreased by 1.50% [3]. III. Industry News - In May 2025, the coking coal long-term agreement coal-steel linkage floating value decreased by 31.2 yuan/ton month-on-month, a decline of 2.39% [5]. - Mongolia's ER company's coking coal has failed to be sold in 16 consecutive auctions, with a starting price of 750 yuan/ton [6]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased by 122.25 tons week-on-week [7]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.87%, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.69%, the steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, and the daily average iron water output was 2.4191 million tons [8]. - The Gabonese government announced that it will stop exporting manganese ore raw materials from 2029 as part of its national strategy to promote industrialization and reduce dependence on unprocessed resource exports [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in June and July, with cautious monetary policy possibly lagging economic data. Trump administration's tariff actions may return, potentially harming demand - dependent commodities, while some commodity prices are near cost levels and may face industrial structure adjustments. There's also sensitivity to the risk of a sharp rise in US Treasury yields. OPEC+ will increase production in July, with supply growth expected but the timing uncertain, seen as a medium - to - long - term negative. The Russia - Ukraine conflict has escalated, and there should be sensitivity to geopolitical events. Overall, OPEC+ is likely to increase production, with supply - demand pressure and short - term geopolitical and tariff disturbances [2]. - The mid - term trading strategy is to sell high, short - term shorts can be held but with stop - losses due to geopolitical risks. Options can be considered for those betting on geopolitical changes and OPEC+'s unexpected policies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Crude Oil Futures and Related Price Data - On May 30, Sc was at 447.90 yuan/barrel, down 19.20 yuan (-4.11%) from the previous day and 4.90 yuan (-1.08%) from the previous week. WTI was at 60.79 dollars/barrel, down 0.13 dollars (-0.21%) from the previous day and 0.97 dollars (-1.57%) from the previous week. Brent was at 62.61 dollars/barrel, down 0.75 dollars (-1.18%) from the previous day and 2.42 dollars (-3.72%) from the previous week [2]. - Various price differences such as Sc - WTI, Sc - Brent, and Brent - WTI also showed significant changes compared to the previous day and week [2]. 2. Crude Oil Spot and Related Data - OPEC's basket of crude oil was at 63.18 dollars/barrel, down 0.60 dollars (-0.94%) from the previous week. Brent DTD was at 63.96 dollars/barrel, down 0.29 dollars (-0.45%) from the previous week. Other spot prices like Oman, Dubai, and ESPO also had slight declines from the previous week [2]. - The premiums and discounts of different crude oils also changed significantly compared to the previous day and week [2]. 3. Product Spot and Related Data - Diesel (East China) was at 6826.18 yuan/ton, up 7.27 yuan (0.11%) from the previous day and 176.82 yuan (2.66%) from the previous week. Gasoline (East China) was at 7700.27 yuan/ton, up 4.91 yuan (0.06%) from the previous day and 67.00 yuan (0.88%) from the previous week [2]. - The price differences and ratios between diesel, gasoline, and Sc also changed [2]. 4. Inventory and Position Data - Sc warehouse receipts totaled 402.90 million barrels, with no change from the previous day. The US strategic petroleum reserve was 401.31 million barrels, up 0.82 million barrels (0.20%) from the previous week. US commercial crude oil was 440.36 million barrels, down 2.80 million barrels (-0.63%) from the previous week [2]. - CFTC non - commercial net positions were 16.57 million contracts, down 2.07 million contracts (-11.12%) from the previous week. Commercial net positions were - 16.91 million contracts, up 1.77 million contracts (-9.47%) from the previous week [2]. 5. Industry News - The US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation may face a breakdown as the new US proposal is considered "incoherent and disjointed" by Iranian officials, and the next round of negotiations is uncertain [3]. - OPEC+ will increase production by 41.1 million barrels per day in July and will decide on August's production policy on July 6. Saudi Arabia's reasons for supporting production increase include appeasing Trump, regaining market share, meeting demand, and punishing cheating members [7][8]. - Canada's Alberta wildfires threaten nearly 50 million barrels of daily crude oil production [8]. - The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in June and July, with low probabilities of rate cuts [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and the weak expectation may not have changed substantially. The price of steel has broken through the recent trading range downward and is expected to continue the downward trend. For iron ore, with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, the iron ore price may break through downward under the influence of the falling steel price [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Thread and Hot Roll - **Market Situation**: Policy-side benefits have basically been realized, and the easing of Sino-US trade tensions is also reflected in the price. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower-tier cities is still bottoming out. The new construction area has dropped significantly, and the completed and under-construction areas still show large year-on-year declines. The output has decreased, factory and social inventories have continued to decline, and the apparent demand has slightly increased month-on-month. However, the peak season of demand has passed, and demand will weaken further with the arrival of the rainy season and high temperatures. The rumor of production restrictions has limited impact on the market, and steel enterprises are less motivated to cut production actively [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions [2] - **Related Data**: Include various data such as spot and futures prices, basis and spreads, steel billet and scrap prices, steel mill production and profitability, output, inventory, spot market transactions, and futures warehouse receipts [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but the iron ore output is expected to decline further. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory decline has slowed down, and the proportion of trade ore inventory is relatively high, which exerts obvious pressure on the futures price [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [4] - **Related Data**: Include various data such as spot and futures prices, basis and futures month-to-month spreads, variety spreads, overseas shipments, shipping costs and exchange rates, iron ore arrivals and port clearance volumes, and inventory [4] 3. Industry News - As of May 29, 7 steel mills in Shandong have initially confirmed their annual production targets, with a total output of 55.33 million tons, a decrease of about 3.5 million tons compared to the same period last year. The planned crude steel output of each steel mill in 2025 has decreased to varying degrees, with a decline of about 4% - 10% [6] - As of the week of May 29, the output and factory inventory of rebar have decreased, social inventory has decreased for the twelfth consecutive week, and apparent demand has increased. Specifically, rebar output was 2.2551 million tons, a decrease of 59,700 tons or 2.58% from the previous week; factory inventory was 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons or 0.69% from the previous week; social inventory was 3.9459 million tons, a decrease of 218,700 tons or 5.25% from the previous week; apparent demand was 2.4868 million tons, an increase of 15,500 tons or 0.63% from the previous week [6] - The average national profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was -39 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shanxi quasi-primary coke was -18 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi-primary coke was 13 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia secondary coke was -87 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi-primary coke was 22 yuan/ton [6] - As of the week of May 29, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 67.662 million weight boxes, a week-on-week decrease of 107,000 weight boxes or 0.16%, but still a year-on-year increase of 14.06%. The inventory days were 30.4 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous period. The total inventory level of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6243 million tons, a decrease of 52,500 tons or 3.13% from the previous week, and an increase of 22,000 tons or 1.37% from Monday. The short-term inventory reduction of soda ash plants was relatively slow, and the total inventory was at a relatively high level in the same period of history [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals pulled back from high levels. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.81%, while the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed flat [1] - The core logic is that in the short term, there are still risks of repeated Trump trade - wars, economic recession, and geopolitical fluctuations. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the Federal Reserve remains cautious about interest rate cuts [1] - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the US trade court ruled to block Trump's global tariffs, reducing the risk - aversion sentiment. The US has completely left the top - tier AAA credit rating club, and the 20 - year new bonds have been cold. Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist [1] - In terms of the monetary attribute, the Fed meeting minutes show that the Fed admits that inflation and unemployment may rise simultaneously and will face a difficult choice. US business equipment spending has recorded the largest decline in six months, and tariff uncertainties linger. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure and weak [1] - In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index has rebounded with fluctuations, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short term, fluctuate weakly in the medium term, and rise in a stepped manner in the long term [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of the capital side, CFTC silver net - long positions and iShare silver ETF have re - increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Price Data**: Comex gold main contract closed at $3312.40 per ounce, up $12.70 (0.38%) from the previous day and up $19.80 (0.60%) from last week; London gold was at $3300.85 per ounce, up $4.15 (0.13%) from the previous day and up $39.30 (1.20%) from last week; Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 764.32 yuan per gram, down 7.96 yuan (-1.03%) from the previous day and down 15.78 yuan (-2.02%) from last week; Gold T + D closed at 762.49 yuan per gram, down 6.40 yuan (-0.83%) from the previous day and down 15.28 yuan (-1.96%) from last week [2] - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex gold positions were 448,000 lots (100 ounces per lot), down 0.98% from last week; Shanghai Gold main contract positions were 195,076 lots (1 kg per lot), down 2.00% from the previous day and down 12.93% from last week; Gold TD positions were 216,784 lots (1 kg per lot), up 0.81% from the previous day and up 0.15% from last week; LBMA inventory was 8,536 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory was 1,207 tons, up 0.05% from last week; Shanghai Gold inventory was 17 tons, up 0.05% from last week [2] - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai Gold by SHFE members are led by CFC Futures with 29,986 lots, and the top 10 net - short positions are led by Jinrui Futures with 5,365 lots [3] 3.2 Silver - **Price Data**: Comex silver main contract closed at $33.10 per ounce, down $0.29 (-0.87%) from the previous day and down $0.16 (-0.50%) from last week; London silver was at $33.29 per ounce, up $0.38 (1.17%) from the previous day and up $0.78 (2.42%) from last week; Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 8,224 yuan per kilogram, down 1 yuan (-0.01%) from the previous day and down 77 yuan (-0.93%) from last week; Silver T + D closed at 8,202 yuan per kilogram, down 9 yuan (-0.11%) from the previous day and down 66 yuan (-0.80%) from last week [5] - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex silver positions were 141,451 lots (5,000 ounces per lot), up 2.31% from last week; Shanghai Silver main contract positions were 5,183,925 lots (1 kg per lot), down 1.34% from the previous day and down 10.00% from last week; Silver TD positions were 3,389,800 lots (1 kg per lot), up 0.78% from the previous day and down 1.47% from last week; The total visible inventory was 40,715 tons, up 0.08% from the previous day and down 0.24% from last week [5] - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai Silver by SHFE members are led by Guotai Junan with 45,469 lots, and the top 10 net - short positions are led by Jinrui Futures with 13,935 lots [6] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are $674.0008 billion, down $2.4409 billion (-0.00%) from the previous value [7] - **Macroeconomic Data**: M2 year - on - year growth rate is 4.44%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.63%, down 1.87% from the previous day and down 2.59% from last week; the US dollar index is 99.87, up 0.30% from the previous day and up 0.26% from last week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) is 0.39, down 9.30% from the previous day and down 7.14% from last week [7] - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year is 2.30%, down 0.10 from the previous value; core CPI year - on - year is 2.80%, unchanged; PCE price index year - on - year is 2.29%, down 0.39 from the previous value; core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.65%, down 0.32 from the previous value [9] - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP annualized year - on - year growth rate is 1.90%, down 1.00 from the previous value; GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rate is - 0.30%, down 2.70 from the previous value; the unemployment rate is 4.20%, unchanged [9] - **Other Data**: Central bank gold reserves: China has 2,294.50 tons, up 0.22% from the previous value; the US has 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world has 36,250.15 tons, unchanged; the geopolitical risk index is 192.40, up 87.57% from the previous value; the VIX index is 18.11, down 6.21% from the previous day and down 10.70% from last week; the CRB commodity index is 293.26, down 0.51% from the previous day and down 1.02% from last week; the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1971, down 0.04% from the previous value [9][11] 3.4 Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are advised [2]