1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic includes the phased realization of Trump's trade - war risks leading to a decline in safe - haven demand, and an increase in the risk of U.S. economic stagflation causing the expected decline of the real yield of U.S. Treasury bonds [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver has recently increased again, while the iShare silver ETF has reduced its position at a high level. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly recently [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals oscillated downward. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 1.44%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 1.52% [1]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term Trump trade - war risks are phased realized, safe - haven demand declines; the risk of U.S. economic stagflation increases, and the expected real yield of U.S. Treasury bonds decreases [1]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven Attribute**: Trump's reciprocal tariffs are realized, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent hints at the easing of Sino - U.S. trade tensions. Trump recently stated that he has no intention to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [1]. - **Monetary Attribute**: U.S. consumer confidence in April remains weak, and tariff concerns persist. The one - year inflation expectation of consumers is 6.5%, the highest since 1981, with a continuous increase of 0.5 percentage points or more for four consecutive months. The long - term inflation expectation is 4.4%. The market currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates next time in June, and the expected total interest - rate cut space in 2025 has returned to around 100 basis points. The U.S. dollar index encounters resistance in its downward movement, and the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds oscillates strongly [1]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index oscillates downward, and the depreciation of the RMB benefits domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [1][2][4]. 3.2 Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [4]. - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver has recently increased again, while the iShare silver ETF has reduced its position at a high level. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly recently [4]. - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and strict stop - losses and take - profits are recommended [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **U.S. Federal Reserve Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the total assets of the Federal Reserve are 67780.29 billion U.S. dollars, M2 (year - on - year) is 4.12%, the real yield of 10 - year U.S. Treasury bonds is 2.48, and the U.S. dollar index is 99.57 [6]. - **Other Key Indicators**: Various indicators such as U.S. bond spreads, inflation data, economic growth data, labor market data, real estate market data, consumption data, and industrial data are presented, showing different trends of increase and decrease [8]. - **Safe - haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index is 170.08, the VIX index is 25.89, the CRB commodity index is 298.46, and the offshore RMB is 7.2966 [9]. - **Fed Interest - Rate Expectation**: The probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate levels in different meetings from 2025 to 2026 is provided according to the CME FedWatch tool [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The actual impact of OPEC+ production increase and the updated over - production compensation plan remains to be seen. The probability of OPEC+ unitedly cutting production to support prices at the current oil price level is lower than before. The demand side may focus on the market's expectation of the US debt scale, and a halt in US debt growth may affect crude oil demand. Geopolitical factors are trending towards缓和 but still require sensitivity to emergencies. In a macro - pressured situation, the probability of new geopolitical information is higher. The short - term rebound of oil prices is facing resistance, and the medium - term weak pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to sell high in the medium term and try to place short positions or bearish positions near the pressure level in the short term, and consider placing out - of - the - money put options due to the approaching holiday in China [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On April 25, the Sc crude oil futures price was 496.10 yuan/barrel, up 0.55% from the previous day and 1.10% from the previous week; WTI was 63.17 dollars/barrel, up 0.64% from the previous day; Brent was 66.91 dollars/barrel, up 0.62% from the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The Sc - WTI spread was 5.67 dollars/barrel, up 0.09% from the previous day; the Sc - Brent spread was 1.93 dollars/barrel, down 0.26% from the previous day; the Brent - WTI spread was 3.74 dollars/barrel, up 93.32% from the previous day [2] - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was 68.83 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.18% from the previous week; Brent DTD was 67.51 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.13% from the previous week; Oman was 67.45 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.45% from the previous week; Dubai was 67.45 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.45% from the previous week; ESPO was 63.99 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and up 2.55% from the previous week [2] - **Product Spot Prices**: Diesel in East China was 6680.09 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the previous day and down 0.64% from the previous week; gasoline in East China was 7888.91 yuan/ton, down 0.00% from the previous day and down 0.59% from the previous week [2] 3.2 Inventory and Position Data - **Inventory**: The US strategic petroleum reserve was 397.48 million barrels, up 0.12% from the previous week; commercial crude oil was 443.10 million barrels, up 0.06% from the previous week; Cushing crude oil was 25.02 million barrels, down 0.34% from the previous week; gasoline was 229.54 million barrels, down 1.91% from the previous week; distillates were 106.88 million barrels, down 2.15% from the previous week [2] - **Position**: The non - commercial net position of CFTC was 17.10 million contracts, up 16.80% from the previous week; the commercial net position was - 17.39 million contracts, down 13.12% from the previous week; the non - report net position was 0.29 million contracts, down 60.11% from the previous week [2] 3.3 Geopolitical and Policy News - US Secretary of State Rubio said the US would not expand sanctions on Russia to avoid interfering with the peace process in the Ukraine conflict, but Trump proposed possible financial or secondary sanctions on Putin. Russia and Ukraine are closer to a peace agreement. The Iran's Abbas Port explosion injured 195 people, and the explosion did not affect energy facilities. The US - Iran talks will continue next week, and a high - level meeting is tentatively scheduled for May 3. Trump said he would not cancel tariffs on China unless China made substantial concessions, while China emphasized that the US should correct its mistakes and cancel all unilateral tariffs [3][5] 3.4 Market and Macro News - The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate in May is 90.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in June is 58.6%. European Central Bank policymakers are more confident about a rate cut in June due to continuous inflation decline. The impact of US tariff policies will start to show nationwide at the end of next month, and it will have a greater impact on low - income Americans. Crude oil futures have rebounded strongly from the trough earlier this month, but in euro terms, Brent oil futures have fallen 11% this year, and European buyers' actual oil purchase cost has dropped more significantly, which may boost oil demand marginally [6][7]

一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年04月28日08时24分 报告导读： 目前的贸易局势对钢材的下游消费以及出口均将构成一定的负面冲击 ，但对钢坯出口影响有限。上周五中央召开政治局会议，强调降准降息，创设 新的政策和金融工具，提振市场信心。房地产方面，核心城市土地拍卖市场热度快速回升 ，土地溢价提升，或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳回升 ，但 全国范围来看，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。 进入四月之后，下游需求进入高峰期，我的钢铁最新的数据显示，上周螺纹钢产量有所下 降，厂库回落，社库下降，总库存继续下降，表需环比有所回落。从空头的角度来看，高需求或无法持续，消费旺季过后，表观需求将季节性回 落，当前或已经见顶。从技术上看，上周五晚间期价上涨，伴随持仓量上升，显示多头更加积极主动。 操作建议： 维持观望，谨慎追涨 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3101 | | 0 0 | 25 | 0.81 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has warmed up due to the Fed's likely maintenance of interest rates in May and over 50% probability of a rate cut in June, as well as Trump's tariff policy and remarks about not removing Powell from office. However, the actual impact of OPEC+ production increase and the updated over - production compensation plan remains to be seen. The demand side may focus on the market's expectation of the US debt scale, and a halt in the growth of the US debt scale could affect crude oil demand. Geopolitical factors are moving towards relaxation but still require sensitivity to emergencies [2]. - Overnight oil prices fluctuated with a rise and then a fall. The upward momentum from the warming external market sentiment was suppressed by supply - demand expectations. The current oil prices may not fully reflect OPEC+ production increase, and there are expectations for OPEC+ to continue managing supply to support prices. But there are concerns about OPEC+'s internal coordination and output control, and the short - term absence of geopolitical drivers has pressured oil prices [2]. - Technically, after the oil price broke through the multi - year production cut bottom in a sharp decline and rebounded to around $65 per barrel, the weekly chart of US oil shows a pattern of breaking through, retesting, and facing pressure. If the pressure around $65 per barrel for US oil is effective, it is difficult for the oil price to return to the production cut bottom range. The short - term is a rebound encountering resistance, and whether it turns into a phased decline remains to be seen. The short - term pressure has moved down to around $63.3 per barrel for US oil, and the potential support is around $61 per barrel for US oil. The trading strategy is to protect floating profits for short - term short positions and put options, and maintain the idea of shorting on rallies in the medium term [2]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil Futures**: On April 24, Sc was at 493.40 yuan/barrel, down 10.40 (-2.06%) from the previous day and up 10.70 (2.22%) from the previous week; WTI was at $62.77/barrel, up $0.49 (0.79%) from the previous day and down $1.68 (-2.61%) from the previous week; Brent was at $66.50/barrel, up $0.36 (0.54%) from the previous day and down $1.35 (-1.99%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at $70.26/barrel, with a weekly increase of $0.76 (1.09%); Brent DTD was at $66.95/barrel, down $1.33 (-1.95%) from the previous week; Oman was at $69.50/barrel, up $1.30 (1.91%) from the previous week; Dubai was at $69.50/barrel, up $1.30 (1.91%) from the previous week; ESPO was at $63.66/barrel, up $1.34 (2.15%) from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory Data**: Sc warehouse receipts totaled 4644000 barrels, a weekly increase of 907000 barrels (24.27%); the US strategic petroleum reserve was 397.48 million barrels, up 0.47 million barrels (0.12%) [2]. - **CFTC Positions**: Non - commercial net positions were 146400 contracts, up 6800 contracts (4.85%); commercial net positions were - 153700 contracts, down 5200 contracts (3.47%); non - report net positions were 7300 contracts, down 1600 contracts (-18.06%) [2]. 3.2 Geopolitical and Policy News - Trump set a deadline for the Russia - Ukraine issue, stating that the US attitude will change after the deadline, but Russia's Peskov said Trump never specified a date and setting a deadline for a cease - fire is inappropriate. Trump also expressed dissatisfaction with Russia's attack on Kiev and was non - committal about sanctions [3]. - Putin urged Russian economic officials to seize opportunities from trade wars to strengthen the economy, as Russia's trade with the US and the EU has declined due to sanctions but is not affected by Trump's tariffs [4]. - The Trump administration is considering multiple tariff plans for Chinese goods, including reducing the tariff rate to about 50% - 65% or implementing a "graded plan". However, the White House said Trump's stance on China tariffs has not softened [4]. - US Federal Reserve Governor Waller warned that Trump's trade war could lead to rising unemployment. If tariffs remain unchanged, there will be no significant impact on the US economy before July, but if tariffs return to a high level, companies may lay off workers, and he would support rate cuts in case of a sharp rise in unemployment [5]. - Russia launched a large - scale air strike on Ukraine, causing casualties. Trump criticized Russia, and Russia put forward new cease - fire conditions, requiring Kiev to withdraw troops from four regions [5]. - The US Middle East envoy is expected to visit Russia to discuss the Ukraine issue, and representatives from the UK, France, Germany, the US, and Ukraine held talks in London, claiming "significant progress" [6].

报告导读： 隔夜美财长贝森特表示中美之间高关税可持续性 ，在谈判之前应先互降关税，进一步释放贸易战缓和意思。全球资本市场迎来短暂喘息，黑色商品 出现大幅反弹。目前的贸易局势对钢材的下游消费以及出口均将构成一定的负面冲击 ，市场预计近期会有政策面的对冲措施出台 。房地产方面，核 心城市土地拍卖市场热度快速回升 ，或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳回升 ，但全国范围来看，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。 进入四月之后， 下游需求进入高峰期，我的钢铁最新的数据显示，上周螺纹钢产量有所下降，厂库回落，社库下降，总库存继续下降，表需环比继续上涨，现实需 求支撑多头信心。但是，从空头的角度来看，高需求或无法持续，消费旺季过后，表观需求会季节性回落。从技术上看，期价反弹，伴随持仓量下 降，显示空头在逢低离场，也意味着暂时看不到上涨的持续性 。 投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年04月24日08时23分 操作建议： 空单可以轻仓持有，后市需逢低离场，以防行情进入震荡 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年04月23日08时25分 报告导读： 隔夜特朗普表示无意解雇鲍威尔，贝森特表示贸易紧张局势不具可持续性 ，释放贸易战缓和意思。目前的贸易局势对板材下游消费以及出口均将构 成一定的负面冲击，市场预计近期会有政策面的对冲措施出台 。房地产方面，核心城市土地拍卖市场热度快速回升 ，或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳 回升，但全国范围来看，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。 进入四月之后，下游需求进入高峰期，我的钢铁最新的数据显示，上周螺纹钢产量 有所下降，厂库回落，社库下降，总库存继续下降，表需环比继续上涨，现实需求支撑多头信心。但是，从空头的角度来看，高需求或无法持续， 消费旺季过后，表观需求会季节性回落。从技术上看，期价下行，伴随持仓量增加，显示空头更加积极主动。 操作建议： 空单可以轻仓持有 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期现货价格 | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 热轧 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年04月23日08时09分 | | | 原油 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 单位 4月22日 | | 数据类别 | 较上日 | 较上周 | | | | | | 绝对值 | 百分比 绝对值 百分比 | | | | | | | | | Sc | 元/桶 494.00 4.80 0.98% 17.20 3.61% | 原油期货 | | | | | | | | WTI | 美元/桶 63.54 0.16 0.25% 2.01 3.27% | | | | | | | | | Brent | 美元/桶 67.82 1.35 2.03% 2.97 4.58% | | | | | | | | | Sc-WTI | 美元/桶 5.00 0.49 10.82% 0.40 8.61% | 内外价差 | | | | | | | | Sc-Brent | 美元/桶 0.72 -0.70 -49.34% -0.56 -43.88% | | | | | | | | | ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年04月22日16时37分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属大幅上行金强银弱，沪金主力收涨4.13%，沪银主力收跌0.23%。①核心逻辑，短期特朗普贸易战风险阶段兑现，"去 美元化"加速；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美债真实收益率预期下行。②避险属性方面，特朗普对等关税兑现，中美仍存升级可能， VIX低位上行。特朗普对鲍威尔的攻击可能威胁到美联储的独立性。贸易战推动各国央行减持美债，增持黄金；③货币属性方面， 特朗普警告称除非美联储降息，否则经济将放缓。美国通胀与劳动力市场仍存韧性，通胀预期大幅上行。目前市场预期美联储下次 降息至6月，预期25年总降息空间重回100基点左右。美元指数震荡下行，美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数 震荡下行，人民币贬值利多国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡上行金强银弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金主 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US imposing a 245% tariff on China has led to trade tensions, disturbing the market and dragging down black series commodities. It's expected that policy hedging measures will be introduced soon. The downstream demand has entered a peak period in April. Although the real - estate market in core cities shows signs of recovery, low - tier cities are still in the bottom - building process. For both steel products and iron ore, the futures prices are short - term uncertain, and it is recommended to hold short positions lightly [2][3] Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Impact Factors**: The US tariff on China and trade tensions have negatively affected the downstream consumption and exports of steel products. The downstream demand has entered a peak period in April. The real - estate market in core cities may be stabilizing, while low - tier cities are still bottoming out [2] - **Market Conditions**: Last week, the production of threaded rods decreased, factory and social inventories declined, and the total inventory continued to fall. The apparent demand increased month - on - month. Technically, the futures price rebounded after breaking the previous low, with short - term uncertainty [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing price of the threaded rod main contract was 3076 yuan/ton, down 1.76% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3181 yuan/ton, down 1.88% from last week [2] - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill threaded rod production was 229.22 million tons, down 1.36% from last week; the hot - rolled coil production was 314.4 million tons, up 0.35% from last week [2] - **Inventory**: The five - variety social inventory was 1124.83 million tons, down 4.41% from last week; the threaded rod social inventory was 532.76 million tons, down 5.39% from last week [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Market Impact Factors**: Global trade tensions are disturbing the market. The downstream demand has entered a peak period in April, which may support the futures price. The real - estate market in individual hot cities is picking up, while low - tier cities are still bottoming out. The global shipment is at a relatively high level, and the national port inventory has rebounded [3] - **Market Conditions**: The iron water production of 247 steel mills reached 240.21 million tons last week, close to last year's peak, and it's expected to have peaked. Technically, the futures price fell sharply after breaking the previous low and then stabilized and rebounded, with a high probability of oscillating downward in the future [3] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [3] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 699 yuan/dry ton, down 1.27% from last week; the SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price was 97.5 US dollars/dry ton, up 2.87% from last week [3] - **Supply**: The Australian iron ore shipment was 1568.1 million tons, up 0.03% from last week; the Brazilian iron ore shipment was 630.1 million tons, down 4.21% from last week [3] - **Inventory**: The 45 - port imported iron ore inventory was 14056.00 million tons, down 285.02 million tons from last week; the 45 - port daily average ore handling volume was 309.51 million tons, down 8.54 million tons from last week [3] 3. Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports decreased by 285.02 million tons, and the daily average ore handling volume decreased by 8.54 million tons. In the first quarter, the steel industry was generally stable, with the output of construction steel bars decreasing by 2.9% year - on - year and the crude steel output increasing slightly by 0.6% year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.28 percentage points week - on - week, the profitability rate increased by 1.30 percentage points week - on - week, and the daily average iron water output decreased by 0.10 million tons week - on - week [7]

www.shanjinqh.com 2025 年 4 月 18 日星期五 作者：林振龙 资 咨 投资 咨询资 格证号： Z0018476 审核：曹有明 Z0013162 电话：021–2062 7529 linzhenlong@sd-gold.com 期货 从业 资格证 号： F03107583 山金期货官微： 投 贸易战避险阶段兑现 贵金属或重回高位震荡？ 报告导读 一、避险属性 询 部 1、近期贸易战、地缘异动等再次发酵，避险需求阶段兑现。特朗普表示， 将与中国达成一项非常好的贸易协议；中美出现缓和迹象，长期仍存升级可能； 投资 咨询资 格证号： 2、美国债务规模突破 36 万亿美元，财政恶化加剧市场对美元信用体系质 疑。 复核：刘书语 二、货币属性 黄 金 白 银 1、近期美国经济出现更多转弱信号，就业与通胀仍有韧性，美国 4 月消 费者信心降至近三年来最低；一年通胀预期升至 6.7%，飙升至 1981 年以来最 高，经济衰退风险大幅上行； 邮箱： 2、鲍威尔称政策调整需等更多数据，否认"美联储托底"可能性。目前 市场预期美联储下次降息至 6 月，预期 25 年总降息空间涨至 100 基点左右。 三、商 ...