Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper price closed 0.46% lower overnight. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although the smelting output has declined month - on - month, it generally continues to grow at a high rate. The copper supply - demand expectation has turned to a deficit due to mine supply disruptions, and the short - term copper price is more affected by market sentiment [2]. - The zinc price closed 0.66% higher overnight. The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the smelting output continues to grow. The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals needs to be concerned [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Price change: The copper price closed 0.46% lower overnight [2]. - Supply: The concentrate supply is tight, the smelting profit is at the break - even point, and the smelting output has declined month - on - month but still shows high growth. The mine supply disruption leads to an expected supply - demand deficit [2]. - Demand: Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market is continuously weak [2]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 103,430 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 35 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 13,172 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 64.31 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 138,975 tons, and the daily change was - 2,100 tons [2]. Zinc - Price change: The zinc price closed 0.66% higher overnight [2]. - Supply: The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the smelting output continues to grow [2]. - Demand: The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market is continuously weak. The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level [2]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,315 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 45 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,214 dollars/ton, the LME spot discount was - 40.90 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 107,450 tons, and the daily change was - 550 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,350 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 120 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,185 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 10.40 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 497,825 tons, and the daily change was - 1,925 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 147,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 5,940 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 18,075 dollars/ton, the LME spot discount was - 200.47 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 284,790 tons, and the daily change was 8,490 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,755 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 130 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,053 dollars/ton, the LME spot discount was - 43.63 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 222,725 tons, and the daily change was - 3,725 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 357,800 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 2,290 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 48,200 dollars/ton, the LME spot discount was - 87.01 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 5,415 tons, and the daily change was 10 tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Index futures (IH, IF, IC, IM), Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Carbonate Lithium, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Rubber, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Coke, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon [6] - Bearish: Crude Oil, Methanol, Apple, Container Shipping European Line [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market closed with widespread gains, with precious metals, shipping futures, new energy materials, and base metals rising significantly. The rebound of precious metals is supported by a loose liquidity environment, and the long - term upward trend of gold is expected to continue. Silver and platinum prices are expected to rise due to macro - environment and supply - demand gaps. The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by factors such as supply - side reform, policy support, and overseas capital inflows. The price of carbonate lithium is expected to be strong in the short term and has upward potential in the long term [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Main News Focus International News - On the afternoon of January 12, local time, Trump stated that any country doing business with Iran would face a 25% tariff on all its business with the US. Iran's Foreign Minister said Iran was ready for all possibilities [9] Domestic News - Four departments including the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued a work plan to clarify the layout and investment direction of government investment funds, aiming to support major strategies and emerging industries [10] Industry News - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement actions to revitalize traditional industries, promote the "AI +" initiative, and develop emerging industries, focusing on areas such as quantum technology and 6G [11][12] 3.2 Overseas Daily Earnings - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures all rose slightly. The US dollar index declined. ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, and London silver prices increased, while ICE 11 - sugar, CBOT soybeans, and other commodities had different degrees of decline [13] 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock market has been rising since 2026, driven by four factors. It is expected that supply - side reform will push up commodity prices and drive resource - related stocks. The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend [14] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly, but the overall price is weak due to factors such as increased market risk appetite, rising US bond yields, and expected economic recovery [15][16] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell slightly at night. There are differences between the US government's stance on South American oil and the Senate's resolution [17] - **Methanol**: Methanol fell at night. The overall supply - demand pattern is stable, but the supply of Iranian sources is a major concern [18] - **Rubber**: The price of rubber is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, with weak supply - side elasticity and stable demand for all - steel tires [19] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures continued to rebound. The market focuses on supply improvement expectations, and the rise in international crude oil prices supports the cost [20] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures were consolidating, and soda ash futures closed slightly up. Glass supply - demand is gradually being repaired, while soda ash has inventory digestion pressure [21] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals continued to rise at night. The long - term upward trend of gold is expected to continue, and the price centers of silver and platinum are expected to rise [22] - **Copper**: Copper prices fell at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the short - term price is more affected by market sentiment [23] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The supply of concentrates is temporarily tight, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [24] - **Aluminum**: The price of Shanghai aluminum rose and hit a new high. Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, the long - term low - inventory and supply - restricted narrative provides support [25][26] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The main contract of carbonate lithium hit the daily limit. The price is expected to be strong in the short term and has upward potential in the long term [27] Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated at night. The short - term disk is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to supply, iron - water production, and downstream replenishment [28] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices oscillated. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger, and steel mills will maintain on - demand procurement [29] - **Steel**: Steel prices oscillated. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, but the overall commodity atmosphere has improved [30] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal oscillated and rose. The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the resumption of domestic soybean auctions may put pressure on prices [31][32] - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats were strong at night. Palm oil data had a neutral impact, soybean oil prices may be supported, and rapeseed oil is expected to be weak [33] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated. Internationally, the supply pressure of Brazilian sugar is easing; domestically, the supply is increasing seasonally, and the price may oscillate [34] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated. There are risks from the macro environment, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [35] Shipping Index - **Container Shipping European Line**: The EC contract rose. The freight rate may enter a downward channel before the Spring Festival, and the 04 contract may oscillate [36][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefin futures continued the rebound trend, and the rebound trend in the future market will continue, but the speed may slow down [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - For LL (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month contracts), the previous day's closing prices were 6506, 6737, 6772 respectively, with price increases of 81, 63, 57 and increases of 1.26%, 0.94%, 0.85% respectively. The trading volumes were 531, 500823, 35734, and the open interests were 7553, 490780, 43396 with changes of - 156, - 509, 1050 respectively [2] - For PP (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month contracts), the previous day's closing prices were 6340, 6560, 6607 respectively, with price increases of 38, 46, 44 and increases of 0.60%, 0.71%, 0.67% respectively. The trading volumes were 492, 501126, 42288, and the open interests were 3303, 502710, 88908 with changes of - 50, - 614, 5473 respectively [2] - For LL, the current spreads of 1 - month - 5 - month, 5 - month - 9 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month were - 231, - 35, 266 respectively, compared with previous values of - 249, - 41, 290. For PP, the current spreads were - 220, - 47, 267 respectively, compared with previous values of - 212, - 49, 261 [2] Raw Material & Spot Market - In the upstream and downstream of raw materials, the current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2220 yuan/ton, 5935 yuan/ton, 590 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6340 yuan/ton, 8700 yuan/ton respectively, compared with previous values of 2161 yuan/ton, 5880 yuan/ton, 586 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6290 yuan/ton, 8700 yuan/ton [2] - In the middle - stream of the spot market, the current price ranges of LL in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6650 - 7050 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6750 yuan/ton, 6750 - 7050 yuan/ton respectively, same as the previous values. The current price ranges of PP in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton, 6200 - 6400 yuan/ton, 6250 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively, same as the previous values [2] News - On Monday (January 12), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for February 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.50 per barrel, the highest since December 5, 2025, up $0.38 or 0.64% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.45 - $59.91. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for March 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.87 per barrel, the highest since November 18, 2025, up $0.53 or 0.84% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.76 - $64.33 [2] Comment and Strategy - In the spot market, for linear LL, some prices of Sinopec and PetroChina were raised by 50. For拉丝PP, some prices of Sinopec were raised by 50, and PetroChina's prices remained stable. Fundamentally, the market currently focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and the transmission of the macro - economy to commodities has increased. The rebound of international crude oil prices over the weekend continued to support chemical products at the cost end [2]

| 五、宏观信息 | | --- | | 美国司法部已就美联储总部翻修相关事宜，对美联储主席鲍威尔启动刑事调查。鲍威尔对此回应称，此举史无前例，应结合特朗普政府对美联储的持续威胁这 | | 一背景来看待，目的是就降息问题进一步向他施压。但美国总统特朗普表示，对鲍威尔接受调查"一无所知"。鉴于此次调查，两名共和党参议员宣布，将投 | | 票反对任何特朗普提名的美联储人选，包括新美联储主席。调查引发市场对美联储独立性的严重担忧，"抛售美国"交易卷土重来，避险情绪推动现货黄金一 | | 度站上4600美元/盎司关口，现货白银突破86美元/盎司，双双再创新高。 | | 我国首次明确政府投资基金布局和投向。国家发改委等四部门联合发布《关于加强政府投资基金布局规划和投向指导的工作办法》，要求基金支持重大战略、 重点领域和市场难以有效配置资源的薄弱环节，推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合，着力培育新兴支柱产业，不得投向限制类、淘汰类以及政策明令禁止的产 | | 业领域。 | | 商务部通报中欧电动汽车案磋商进展称，欧方将发布《关于提交价格承诺申请的指导文件》，并确认将秉持非歧视原则，根据世贸组织规则有关规定，对每一 宏观信息 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Night trading of protein meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) closed higher. The expected high yield of South American soybeans and high domestic soybean meal inventory will continue to pressure prices, but the suspension and resumption of imported soybean auctions and strong downstream demand have affected the price trend [3]. - Night trading of oils was strong. The December MPOB report on palm oil was in line with market expectations, with production down and exports up, and inventory growth within expectations, having a neutral impact on the market. Soybean oil prices are supported by supply concerns, and it is expected that soybean and palm oils will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a weak oscillation due to the expected easing of China - Canada trade relations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures were 7994 for soybean oil, 8724 for palm oil, 8980 for rapeseed oil, 2790 for soybean meal, 2770 for rapeseed meal, and 8844 for peanuts. The price changes were 0, 42, - 62, 4, - 18, and 26 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.00%, 0.48%, - 3.15%, 0.14%, - 0.65%, and 0.29% [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads and ratios have changed compared to the previous values, such as the Y9 - 1 spread changing from - 390 to - 364, and the M9 - 1 spread changing from - 179 to - 238 [2]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures were 3970 ringgit/ton for BMD palm oil, 1051 cents/bushel for CBOT soybeans, 50.35 cents/pound for CBOT soybean oil, and 298 dollars/ton for CBOT soybean meal. The price changes were - 15, - 12, 1, and - 5 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.38%, - 1.15%, 1.39%, and - 1.78% [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of various oils and meals have different percentage changes. For example, the prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.12%, while the prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil decreased by 0.35% [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current basis and spreads of domestic spot products have also changed compared to the previous values, such as the basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil being 526, and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil remaining at - 150 [2]. Import Profit and Crush Margin - The current import profit and crush margin values of various imported products have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the import profit of Malaysian palm oil changed from - 235 to - 232, and the import profit of Canadian rapeseed changed from 581 to 577 [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of various products have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the warehouse receipts of soybean oil changed from 29,426 to 29,197, and the warehouse receipts of palm oil changed from 560 to 1,248 [2]. Industry Information - Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 10 increased by 17.65% compared to the same period last month, reaching 466,457 tons [3]. - According to MPOB data, Malaysian palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1,829,761 tons, exports increased by 8.52% month - on - month to 1,316,522 tons, and inventory increased by 7.58% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons [3]. - As of the week of January 3, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 98.2%, and the harvesting rate was 0.1%, with a high - yield expectation [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - bull and slow - bull pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated, forming a triple resonance of "policy support, capital escort, and industry drive" [3][11] - Precious metals are expected to maintain a long - term upward trend, with the price centers of silver and platinum likely to rise steadily [2][19] - The price of copper is affected by market sentiment in the short term, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit [3][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chief Comment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will improve the long - term capital investment system, enhance service for science and technology innovation enterprises, and strengthen regulatory law enforcement [1] - The US may lift additional sanctions on Venezuela to promote oil exports [1] Key Varieties - **Precious Metals**: The long - term upward trend is expected to continue. Gold is supported by factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit and central bank gold purchases. Silver and platinum are also driven by supply - demand gaps in addition to macro factors [2] - **Stock Index**: The long - bull and slow - bull pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated. Supply - side reform will push up commodity prices and drive up resource - based stocks. Overseas funds are expected to flow back [3] - **Copper**: The supply of concentrates is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit. The short - term price is affected by market sentiment [3] Variety Views | Variety | Bias | | --- | --- | | Stock Index (IH) | Bullish | | Stock Index (IF) | Bullish | | Stock Index (IC) | Bullish | | Stock Index (IM) | Bullish | | Treasury Bond (TF) | Bullish | | Treasury Bond (TS) | Bullish | | Crude Oil | Bearish | | Methanol | Bearish | | Rubber | Bullish | | Rebar | Bullish | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Bullish | | Iron Ore | Bullish | | Coking Coal | Bullish | | Coke | Bullish | | Silicomanganese | Bullish | | Ferrosilicon | Bullish | | Gold | Bullish | | Silver | Bullish | | Copper | Bullish | | Aluminum | Bullish | | Lithium Carbonate | Bullish | | Cotton | Bullish | | Sugar | Bullish | | Apple | Bearish | | Corn | Bullish | | Container Shipping to Europe | Bearish | [5] Main News Concerns on the Day - **International News**: The Fed's January 2026 interest - rate cut expectation has completely disappeared. The US non - farm payrolls in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than expected [6] - **Domestic News**: The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal and financial coordination [7] - **Industry News**: Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled, and the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products will be adjusted [8] Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.65%, the European STOXX 50 rose 1.39%, and the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.24% from January 8th to January 9th [10] Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: The long - bull and slow - bull pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated. Treasury bond futures are generally weak due to the strong market risk appetite [11][12][13] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors. Methanol is mainly affected by Iranian supply. The upward momentum of polyolefins may slow down after continuous rebounds [14][15][17] - **Metals**: Precious metals are expected to rise in the long term. Copper prices are affected by market sentiment in the short term. Aluminum prices are affected by macro factors and downstream demand [19][20][22] - **Black Metals**: The short - term trend of coking coal and coke is expected to be strong. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate slightly upward [25][26] - **Agricultural Products**: Protein meal prices are under pressure. Palm oil prices are affected by production concerns. Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [28][29][30] - **Shipping Index**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe may enter a downward channel in mid - January [32]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Treasury bond futures generally declined, with the T2603 contract down 0.02% and its open interest decreasing. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. Key - term Treasury bond yields at home and abroad also had different changes. Overall, due to factors such as the central bank's open - market operations, economic data, and the Fed's monetary policy expectations, the price of Treasury bond futures was generally weak under the stock - bond seesaw effect [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of TS2603, TS2606, TF2603, TF2606, T2603, T2606, TL2603, and TL2606 all declined compared to the previous day, with declines ranging from - 0.01% to - 0.15%. The open interest of T2603 decreased, while others had different changes [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of each contract varied. For example, the trading volume of TS2603 was 28154, and its open interest increased by 121 [2]. - **Spread**: The inter - delivery spread of some contracts changed. For instance, the inter - delivery spread of T2603 - T2606 decreased from 0.095 to 0.080 [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was between 0.7727% and 1.5483%, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: SHIBOR7 - day rate decreased by 0.1bp, DR007 rate decreased by 1.04bp, and GC007 rate increased by 2.1bp [2]. - **China's Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields of key - term Treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The 10Y - term Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.17bp to 1.88%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 41.56bp [2]. Overseas Market - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The 10Y Treasury bond yields of the US, Germany, and Japan decreased by 1bp, 1bp, and 4.1bp respectively [2]. - **Interest Rate Spreads**: The internal - external interest rate spreads between China and overseas countries were different, such as - 229.9bp for the 10Y US - China spread [2]. Macro and Policy Information - **Central Bank Operations**: Last week, the central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 16550 billion yuan and carried out 11000 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operations to fully offset the matured funds. This week, there will be 1387 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 6000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases maturing [3]. - **Economic Data**: In December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with the core CPI increasing by 1.2% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline, and increased by 0.2% month - on - month for three consecutive months. The US added 50,000 non - farm jobs in December 2025, lower than expected, and the Fed's probability of cutting interest rates in January 2026 was almost zero [3]. - **Policy News**: The State Council deployed a package of policies for fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand. The Ministry of Commerce issued a task list for the comprehensive pilot program of expanding the opening - up of the service industry in 9 cities [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that in 2026, supply - side reform will continue, pushing up commodity prices and driving up resource - based stocks. The RMB has been appreciating against the US dollar since December, and with the weakening of the US dollar in the interest - rate cut cycle, overseas funds are expected to flow back, leading to the revaluation of Chinese assets. Under multiple positive factors, the long - term and steady upward trend of A - shares is expected to be consolidated, forming a triple resonance of "policy support, capital escort, and industrial drive" [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4764.80, 4753.20, 4743.80, and 4702.00 respectively, with increases of 32.00, 32.80, 33.60, and 36.80. The trading volumes were 39087.00, 6304.00, 85400.00, and 17551.00, and the open interest changes were - 1508.00, 2122.00, 6540.00, and 3317.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 3133.00, 3132.80, 3134.80, and 3123.20 respectively, with increases of 17.40, 18.40, 19.20, and 17.40. The trading volumes were 12774.00, 2091.00, 33032.00, and 5808.00, and the open interest changes were 56.00, 578.00, 216.00, and 788.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 8088.20, 8058.20, 8037.80, and 7865.60 respectively, with increases of 206.60, 218.60, 233.40, and 230.20. The trading volumes were 42842.00, 11442.00, 110023.00, and 24589.00, and the open interest changes were 793.00, 3543.00, 15856.00, and 4181.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 8160.20, 8098.80, 8048.40, and 7824.20 respectively, with increases of 219.20, 227.60, 239.60, and 241.20. The trading volumes were 54173.00, 12796.00, 149124.00, and 31696.00, and the open interest changes were 325.00, 3555.00, 10585.00, and 4756.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were - 11.60, - 0.20, - 30.00, and - 61.40 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 11.60, - 0.80, - 40.20, and - 73.60 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4758.92, 3134.32, 7651.20, and 8129.18 respectively, with increases of 0.45, 0.39, 2.49, and 1.98. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 254.69, 60.15, 251.85, and 381.04, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 6687.89, 1777.40, 5046.90, and 7053.23 [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries in the CSI 300 had different increases or decreases. For example, the energy, raw materials, and industrial sectors had increases of 1.15%, 1.51%, and 0.53% respectively, while the real - estate and finance sector had a decrease of - 0.51% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The basis of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) against the CSI 300 were 5.88, - 5.72, - 15.12, and - 56.92 respectively, compared with the previous values of 0.15, - 11.45, - 19.25, and - 64.45 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The basis of IH contracts against the SSE 50 were - 1.32, - 1.52, 0.48, and - 11.12 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 0.46, - 1.26, 0.34, and - 8.86 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The basis of IC contracts against the CSI 500 were 31.51, 1.51, - 18.89, and - 191.09 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 5.14, - 45.34, - 80.14, and - 253.54 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The basis of IM contracts against the CSI 1000 were 31.02, - 30.38, - 80.78, and - 304.98 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 17.59, - 91.19, - 150.99, and - 374.39 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4120.43, 14120.15, 8672.11, and 3327.81 respectively, with increases of 0.92%, 1.15%, 1.26%, and 0.77% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26231.79, 51117.26, 6966.28, and 25261.64 respectively, with increases of 0.32%, - 1.63%, 0.65%, and 0.53% [1] 3.5 Macro Information - The vice - chairman of the CSRC stated that efforts will be made to improve the institutional environment for long - term investment, enhance services for technology - innovation enterprises, and strengthen regulatory enforcement [2] - This week, important events include the release of China's December 2025 foreign trade data, US CPI and PPI data, and the possible announcement of a tariff ruling by the US Supreme Court [2] - The National Commerce Work Conference outlined eight key tasks for the national commerce system in 2026, such as boosting consumption and promoting trade innovation [2] - The Hong Kong SAR government's financial secretary said that the new budget will be released on February 25, with the operating account expected to return to surplus and the capital account still in deficit [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Fund companies and sales institutions received a notice on the implementation of regulations on fund sales fees, with three key points attracting attention [2] - China's public REITs market had a good start in the first trading week of 2026 [2] - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is at a historical turning point due to the cancellation of export tax - rebates and the end of industry self - regulation, which may lead to a reconstruction of the industry's valuation system [2] 3.7 Stock Index Viewpoint - US stock indexes rose, and the previous trading day saw an increase in the A - share market, with the media sector leading the rise and the banking sector leading the decline. The market turnover was 3.15 trillion yuan [2] - On January 8, the margin trading balance increased by 15.944 billion yuan to 2.603155 trillion yuan [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report covers various sectors including finance, energy, metals, black commodities, agriculture, and shipping. It provides analysis and forecasts on the market trends of different varieties, suggesting potential investment opportunities and risks in the market. For example, it anticipates a long - term upward trend for precious metals, a short - term strong performance for lithium carbonate, and an overall positive outlook for A - shares [2][3][11]. Summary by Directory 1.当日主要新闻关注 (Main News Focus of the Day) - **International News**: US President Trump announced to buy $200 billion in mortgage - backed securities through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, aiming to lower mortgage rates. The US Senate passed a resolution restricting Trump's military action against a South American country without congressional authorization. The US initial jobless claims rose to 208,000 last week, slightly below market expectations [6][14]. - **Domestic News**: The Political Bureau Standing Committee of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting, emphasizing the importance of Party leadership in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. China National Petroleum & Chemical Corporation and China National Aviation Fuel Group were approved to implement a restructuring [7][8]. - **Industry News**: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council plans to promote strategic and professional restructuring and high - quality mergers and acquisitions in 2026, with potential acceleration in new energy, energy conservation, environmental protection, and construction sectors [8][9]. 2.外盘每日收益情况 (Daily Returns of Overseas Markets) - The S&P 500 rose 0.01%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.14%, and the Chinese A50 futures dropped 1.06%. ICE Brent crude oil increased 3.83%, and London gold spot rose 0.48%, while London silver fell 1.66% [10]. 3.主要品种早盘评论 (Morning Comments on Major Varieties) Financial - **Stock Index**: A - shares are expected to form a long - term bullish pattern due to supply - side reform, RMB appreciation, and overseas capital inflows [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds stabilized and rose. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond declined. The central bank's open - market operations and economic data influenced the market. The new public - fund sales regulations eased concerns about bond - fund liquidity [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil futures rebounded. Trump's statement on South American oil and OPEC's compensation plan affected the market [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices declined. High inventory and reduced开工 rates led to a short - term weakening trend [15]. - **Natural Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to be volatile and bullish due to supply constraints and stable tire production [4][16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures continued to rebound, but the upward momentum may slow down [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures declined. Attention is on the real - estate industry's recovery and supply - side changes [18]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are expected to have a long - term upward trend. Gold is supported by a weakening US dollar and central - bank purchases, while silver and platinum are also driven by supply - demand gaps [2][19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell at night. Tight concentrate supply and weak downstream demand influenced the market [20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices declined. Tight concentrate supply and weak downstream demand were the main factors [21]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices continued to correct. The US economic data and Fed's stance affected the market. Supply was stable, and demand was acceptable, but attention is on the impact of the approaching Spring Festival [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices reached new highs. Despite short - term fluctuations, prices are likely to rise due to strong demand and inventory structure [3][24]. Black Commodities - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be strong in the short term, supported by supply disruptions, iron - water production recovery, and pre - holiday restocking [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - ore prices may continue to be slightly bullish in the short term, with a small increase in supply and stable demand [26]. - **Steel**: Steel prices fell at night. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, but the overall commodity atmosphere is positive [27]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Protein - meal prices are under pressure due to high inventory and expected South American soybean harvest, but Chinese purchases provide some support [28][29]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oil prices were weak. Palm - oil prices are affected by production concerns, while soybean - oil prices are influenced by potential soybean reserves and palm - oil prices [30]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are expected to be volatile. International prices are weak, while domestic prices are supported by production costs [31]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are likely to be strong, supported by reduced planting area expectations and fast sales progress [32]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price of container shipping to Europe continued to decline, and the price inflection point at the beginning of the year may be confirmed [33][34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Copper**: Night - time copper prices closed 0.98% lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it continued to grow overall. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Supply disruptions in mines have shifted the global copper supply - demand outlook to a deficit, and short - term copper prices are more affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - **Zinc**: Night - time zinc prices closed 0.73% lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, and smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but attention needs to be paid to the overall market sentiment in the non - ferrous sector. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Metal Price and Market Data - **Copper**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 100,970 yuan/ton with a basis of - 50 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 12,721 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 14.98 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 143,225 tons with a daily change of - 2,850 tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,350 yuan/ton with a basis of - 110 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 3,091 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 17.33 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 501,750 tons with a daily change of - 2,500 tons [2]. - **Zinc**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,315 yuan/ton with a basis of 145 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 3,131 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 45.20 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 105,500 tons with a daily change of - 275 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 147,400 yuan/ton with a basis of - 6,570 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 17,155 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 223.90 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 275,634 tons with a daily change of 20,088 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,755 yuan/ton with a basis of - 120 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 2,017 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 43.10 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 230,425 tons with a daily change of - 2,925 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 357,800 yuan/ton with a basis of 8,790 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 43,750 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 52.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 5,405 tons with a daily change of - 15 tons [2].