Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range in the short term due to the intersection of multiple factors such as tight concentrate supply, high smelting output growth, and mixed downstream demand [2] - Zinc prices may experience a wide - range and weakening fluctuation in the short term as the short - term supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices closed 0.84% lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Downstream demand shows mixed signals: power industry has positive growth, photovoltaic rush - installation increased year - on - year but future growth may slow, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2] - Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 80,560 yuan/ton, with a basis of 30 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 9,974 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 71.13 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 150,950 tons, with a daily decrease of 1,675 tons [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed 0.76% lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2] - Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,280 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 95 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,943 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was 24.36 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 48,975 tons, with a daily decrease of 1,175 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 20,910 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 50 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,690 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was 1.74 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 483,775 tons, with a daily decrease of 1,500 tons [2] - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 121,790 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 870 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 15,445 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 189.18 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 226,434 tons, with a daily increase of 1,950 tons [2] - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 17,100 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 125 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,005 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 46.43 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 227,850 tons, with a daily increase of 2,225 tons [2] - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 272,540 yuan/ton, with a basis of 1,320 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 34,390 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 167.02 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 2,645 tons, with no daily change [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating was provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal was weak. The September USDA report raised the planting area to 81.1 million acres, lowered the estimated soybean yield to 53.5 bushels per acre, raised the estimated crush to 2.555 billion bushels, and lowered the estimated export to 1.685 billion bushels, resulting in an increase in the 2025/2026 US soybean ending stocks to 300 million bushels. The report's impact on the market was neutral to bearish. With the improvement signal of Sino-US trade relations, the domestic supply is expected to increase, and the short - term Dalian meal is expected to be under pressure [3]. - Oils: Night trading of oils was weakly volatile. The August MPOB report showed that Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.35% month - on - month, exports decreased by 0.29% month - on - month, and the inventory increased by 4.18% month - on - month. The bearish impact of the data has been mostly digested. The flood in Sabah, Malaysia has reduced the concern about production, and the US biodiesel blending obligation allocation proposal has brought certainty to the oil market. Oils are expected to fluctuate overall [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8366, 9424, and 9999 respectively, with changes of - 52, - 58, and - 54, and percentage changes of - 0.62%, - 0.61%, and - 3.15% respectively. For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the previous day's closing prices were 3002 and 2490, with changes of - 39 and - 40, and percentage changes of - 1.28% and - 1.58% respectively. The peanut futures price was 8844, with a change of 26 and a percentage change of 0.29% [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 spreads were - 68, 116, and 87 respectively, compared with previous values of 6, 202, and 129. The current values of M9 - 1 and RM9 - 1 spreads were - 57 and - 17, compared with previous values of - 35 and 17 [2]. International Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4383 ringgit per ton, 1049 cents per bushel, 53 cents per pound, and 286 dollars per ton respectively. The changes were - 42, - 5, - 1, and - 1, and the percentage changes were - 0.95%, - 0.48%, - 2.58%, and - 0.21% respectively [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8580 and 8700, with percentage changes of - 0.69% and - 0.57% respectively. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil were 9560 and 9450, with a percentage change of 0.53%. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil were 10250, with a percentage change of 0.29% [2]. - **Spot Basis**: The spot basis of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil was 214 and 334, the spot basis of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil was 136 and 26, and the spot basis of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil was 251 [2]. Import and Crush - The current values of import profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed were - 280, - 28, - 188, 211, 827, and 879 respectively, compared with previous values of - 223, 32, - 148, 219, 879, and 992 [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 24,544, 1,570, 8,202, 29,065, 10,104, and 0 respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous values for soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, and with a decrease of 110 for rapeseed meal [2]. Industry Information - Palm oil: From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 6.94% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.21% month - on - month, and production decreased by 8.05% month - on - month according to SPPOMA. The export volume from September 1 - 15 was 695,716 tons, a 0.1% decrease compared with the same period last month according to AmSpec [3]. - Protein meal: The September USDA report had a neutral - bearish impact on the market. Sino - US trade relations showed a positive signal, and the domestic supply of soybean meal was expected to increase [3]. - Oils: The August MPOB report showed that Malaysian palm oil production increased, exports decreased, and inventory increased. The bearish impact of the data was mostly digested. The flood in Sabah, Malaysia reduced production concerns, and the US biodiesel blending obligation allocation proposal brought certainty to the oil market [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market is consolidating. In the spot market, prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina are stable. Fundamentally, the inventory of PE is being slowly digested, and the PP inventory has also improved. After continuous declines, short - selling pressure has been released. The stabilization of crude oil prices supports the chemical products, and the market has rebounded. With the Fed starting an interest - rate cut cycle and potential for two more cuts this year, the international macro - environment may remain accommodative. In the short term, the recovery of terminal demand for polyolefins may support the market to rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7245, 7289, and 7299 respectively, with price changes of 11, 14, and - 10, and percentage changes of 0.15%, 0.19%, and - 0.14%. The trading volumes were 146481, 9789, and 15, and the open interests were 520256, 38553, and 32, with changes of - 3780, 193, and 1. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6982, 7017, and 6984 respectively, with price changes of 12, 17, and 7, and percentage changes of 0.17%, 0.24%, and 0.10%. The trading volumes were 183494, 13200, and 371, and the open interests were 570841, 67265, and 1051, with changes of - 10461, 3640, and 201 [2]. - **Spread Changes**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 44, - 10, and 54, compared to previous values of - 41, - 34, and 75. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 35, 33, and 2, compared to previous values of - 30, 23, and 7 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film are 2377 yuan/ton, 6615 yuan/ton, 598 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6750 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, mostly unchanged from the previous values [2]. - **Spot Market**: In the middle - stream market, for LL, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China are 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China are 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton, and 6700 - 6950 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News and Evaluation - **Crude Oil Prices**: On Wednesday (September 17), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $64.05 per barrel, down $0.47 or 0.73% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.95 per barrel, down $0.52 or 0.76% from the previous trading day [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In September, the market entered a high-level consolidation phase after continuous upward movement. Due to increased hedging demand of some funds at high levels, there was a certain divergence between long and short forces, leading to significant fluctuations in stock index. However, from a long - term perspective, China's capital market is just at the beginning of the strategic allocation period. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are mostly composed of technology - growth stocks, are more offensive with larger fluctuations but may bring higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which are mostly composed of dividend blue - chip stocks, are more defensive with smaller fluctuations but relatively weaker price elasticity [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 4553.20, 4541.80, 4518.20, and 4492.80 respectively, with increases of 36.20, 34.80, 31.60, and 30.20. The trading volumes were 72782.00, 20655.00, 57612.00, and 11450.00 respectively, and the positions were 61553.00, 33842.00, 133521.00, and 44996.00 respectively. The position changes were - 17674.00, 7608.00, 6720.00, and 666.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 2956.20, 2955.60, 2955.80, and 2958.40 respectively, with increases of 5.80, 6.20, 5.00, and 3.80. The trading volumes were 29648.00, 8442.00, 23042.00, and 3627.00 respectively, and the positions were 28332.00, 12791.00, 52206.00, and 11442.00 respectively. The position changes were - 4903.00, 3127.00, 5476.00, and 321.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 7252.40, 7197.00, 7081.00, and 6916.00 respectively, with increases of 90.40, 93.40, 86.80, and 79.80. The trading volumes were 67086.00, 24005.00, 56441.00, and 16292.00 respectively, and the positions were 56442.00, 40143.00, 111083.00, and 44403.00 respectively. The position changes were - 20158.00, 6496.00, 1443.00, and 1399.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 7547.00, 7480.20, 7331.60, and 7126.20 respectively, with increases of 93.00, 96.00, 99.40, and 99.40. The trading volumes were 122397.00, 36291.00, 101376.00, and 25839.00 respectively, and the positions were 89169.00, 57923.00, 158963.00, and 73293.00 respectively. The position changes were - 23457.00, 11171.00, 9900.00, and 1807.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, and IM next month - IM current month were - 11.40, - 0.60, - 55.40, and - 66.80 respectively, compared with previous values of - 9.40, 0.80, - 57.80, and - 70.00 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4551.02, 2952.78, 7260.04, and 7554.81 respectively, with increases of 0.61, 0.17, 0.96, and 0.95. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 235.72, 56.67, 258.26, and 301.71 respectively, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 6084.54, 1550.34, 4455.49, and 4932.96 respectively [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the energy, industrial, optional consumption, and information technology industries had increases of 1.06%, 2.13%, 1.72%, and 0.76% respectively. The raw materials, main consumption, real - estate finance industries had decreases of - 0.13%, - 0.58%, and - 0.10% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts and Underlying Index**: The previous day's basis values of IF current month - CSI 300, IF next month - CSI 300, IF next quarter - CSI 300, and IF quarter after next - CSI 300 were 2.18, - 9.22, - 32.82, and - 58.22 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts and Underlying Index**: The previous day's basis values of IH current month - SSE 50, IH next month - SSE 50, IH next quarter - SSE 50, and IH quarter after next - SSE 50 were 3.42, 2.82, 3.02, and 5.62 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts and Underlying Index**: The previous day's basis values of IC current month - CSI 500, IC next month - CSI 500, IC next quarter - CSI 500, and IC quarter after next - CSI 500 were - 7.64, - 63.04, - 179.04, and - 344.04 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts and Underlying Index**: The previous day's basis values of IM current month - CSI 1000, IM next month - CSI 1000, IM next quarter - CSI 1000, and IM quarter after next - CSI 1000 were - 7.81, - 74.61, - 223.21, and - 428.61 respectively [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - Sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3876.34, 13215.46, 8042.44, and 3147.35 respectively, with increases of 0.37%, 1.16%, 0.99%, and 1.95% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index were 26908.39, 44790.38, 6600.35, and 23359.18 respectively, with increases of 1.78%, - 0.25%, - 0.10%, and 0.13% respectively [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - **US Federal Reserve**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%. After the FOMC statement, the market expected a more than 90% probability of another rate cut in October [2] - **China's Policies**: China will select about 50 pilot cities for new consumption formats, models, and scenarios, introduce a series of policy documents, promote the application of AI in service consumption, and use structural monetary policy tools to increase capital supply in the consumption field. During the consumption month, there will be over 25,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities and over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies [2] - **China - ASEAN Relations**: Vice - President Han Zheng put forward four suggestions at the 22nd China - ASEAN Expo to strengthen cooperation between China and ASEAN [2] 6. Industry Information - **Cybersecurity**: The deputy director of the National Cyberspace Administration of China called on leading enterprises to take on the responsibility of tackling "neck - stuck" technologies in key areas such as chips [2] - **Pig Industry**: A symposium on pig production capacity regulation was held to control the sow production capacity and regulate the pig supply for next year [2] - **Intelligent Connected Vehicles**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on mandatory national standards for combined driving assistance of intelligent connected vehicles [2] - **Energy Storage**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a ten - year development roadmap for new energy storage technologies, aiming for an installed capacity of over 180 million kilowatts by 2027, over 240 million kilowatts by 2030, and over 300 million kilowatts by 2035 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US consumer spending remains strong due to salary growth and the stock market wealth effect, which may influence the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. The gold market is likely to be bullish in the long - term with short - term adjustments. The copper and zinc prices may fluctuate within a certain range. The oil market will focus on OPEC's production increase. The stock index is in a high - level consolidation phase, and the bond price is stabilizing in the short term. Different commodities in the energy, chemical, metal, black, agricultural, and shipping sectors have their own market trends based on supply - demand relationships and other factors [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1当日主要新闻关注 3.1.1 International News - On September 16th, the US President Trump said he would talk with President Xi on Friday, and the US Treasury Secretary confirmed it. The TikTok issue has reached a relevant agreement, and the two leaders will make a decision during the call. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman had no information to provide [4][5] 3.1.2 Domestic News - On September 16th, nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued policies to expand service consumption, proposing 19 measures in five aspects to increase high - quality service supply [5] 3.1.3 Industry News - On September 12th, the China Real Estate Association's commercial housing direct - selling platform was launched, with 15 initial signing units covering real estate development, financial services, and industry associations [6] 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The table shows the daily gains and losses of various foreign market varieties on September 15th and 16th, including the FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, etc. [7] 3.3主要品种早盘评论 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes fell. The previous trading day's stock index was differentiated. The market is in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous rise. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [9][10] - **Treasury Bond**: It opened low and closed high. The central bank increased net investment, but the capital market tightened due to tax payment. The US economic data strengthened the September interest - rate cut expectation, and the short - term bond price stabilized [11] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The SC night session rose 1.56%. Eight countries decided to adjust the daily production increase in October, and the 1.65 - million - barrel daily production cut may be partially or fully restored [3][12] - **Methanol**: The night session fell 0.46%. The domestic methanol production and inventory situation is not optimistic, and it is short - term bearish [13] - **Rubber**: It showed a volatile trend. The supply is increasing, the demand is improving, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile and bullish [14][15] - **Polyolefin**: The price rose and then fell. The supply - demand relationship is the main factor, and the short - term terminal demand recovery may support the price [16] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both futures prices rebounded slightly. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and future consumption and policies need attention [17] 3.3.3 Metal - **Precious Metal**: Gold and silver rose and then fell. US economic data strengthened the September interest - rate cut expectation, and gold has long - term driving factors. It may be bullish in the long - term with short - term adjustments [2][18] - **Copper**: The night session rose 0.02%. The concentrate supply is tight, and the downstream demand is mixed, so the price may fluctuate within a range [3][19] - **Zinc**: The night session rose 0.16%. The smelting profit is positive, and the short - term supply may be excessive, with the price likely to fluctuate weakly within a range [20][21] 3.3.4 Black - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night session was strong. The steel market has supply - demand contradictions, and the policy expectation provides support, so the price is in a high - level shock [22] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The night session of soybean meal was weakly volatile, and rapeseed meal rose slightly. The USDA report was neutral - bearish, and the market expects improved domestic supply, so the price is expected to be weakly volatile [23] - **Edible Oil**: The night session was bullish. The Malaysian palm oil data's bearish impact was digested, and the short - term price is expected to be bullish and volatile [24] - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, and the domestic market has supply - demand contradictions. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile [25] - **Cotton**: The international cotton market has supply pressure, and the domestic market has a new - cotton acquisition focus. The short - term price is expected to be volatile [26][27] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC was volatile. As the National Day approaches, the shipping companies' freight - rate reduction competition intensifies, and the short - term price depends on the decline rate of spot freight [28]

20250917申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 可能短期区间波动 铜： | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 可能短期宽幅偏弱波动 锌： | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨0.02%。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润承压，但冶炼产 量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力行业延续正增长，光伏抢装同比 | | | 铜 | 陡增，未来增速可能放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续 | 可能短期区 | | | 疲弱。多空因素交织，铜价可能区间波动。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需 | 间波动 | | | 求等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨0.16%。锌精矿加工费总体回升，冶炼利润转正，冶炼产量 有望持续回升。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存周度增加。基建投资累计增速小幅 | | | 锌 | 正增长，汽车产销正增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。短期供求差 | 可能短期宽 | | | 异可能向过剩倾斜，锌价可能区间偏弱波动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下 | 幅偏弱波动 | | | 游需求等变化。 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号： ...

Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - The September market trend is more volatile compared to July and August, entering a high-level consolidation phase after a continuous rise. In the long run, China's capital market is at the beginning of a strategic allocation period. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which have more technology growth components, are more offensive with large fluctuations but may bring higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which have more dividend blue-chip components, are more defensive with small fluctuations and relatively weak price elasticity [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices for IF contracts showed declines, with decreases ranging from -0.11% to -0.25%. The trading volume and open interest had different changes, with open interest increasing in some contracts and decreasing in others [1] - **IH Contracts**: The prices of IH contracts also declined, with decreases ranging from -0.24% to -0.34%. The trading volume and open interest changed, with open interest showing a mixed pattern of increase and decrease [1] - **IC Contracts**: The prices of IC contracts increased, with increases ranging from 0.55% to 0.65%. The trading volume and open interest had different changes, with open interest generally increasing [1] - **IM Contracts**: The prices of IM contracts decreased, with decreases ranging from -0.44% to -0.72%. The trading volume and open interest changed, with open interest showing a mixed pattern of increase and decrease [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of different contracts had different changes compared to the previous values [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300 index increased by 0.24%, the SSE 50 index decreased by -0.15%, the CSI 500 index decreased by -0.10%, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by -0.24%. Other major domestic and overseas indexes also had different degrees of increase or decrease [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries in the CSI 300 index had different price changes, with some industries rising and some falling [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of different contracts relative to their corresponding spot indexes had different values and changes compared to the previous two - day values [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic and overseas major indexes, such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and overseas indexes like the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, etc., had different degrees of increase or decrease [1] 5. Macro Information - The Ministry of Commerce and other nine departments issued policies to expand service consumption, including 19 measures in five aspects, and proposed to build pilot cities for new consumption formats [2] - Trump said he would talk to Chinese leaders, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson had no specific information to provide [2] - The central bank governor pointed out that the international monetary system may evolve towards a pattern of co - existence, competition, and mutual restraint of several sovereign currencies [2] - The so - called "cancellation of the overseas individual housing purchase limit in China" is a misreading, and the policy only optimizes the review process [2] 6. Industry Information - A ±800 kV UHV DC transmission project from Southeast Tibet to the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area started construction, with a total investment of about 53.2 billion yuan and over 150 billion yuan in supporting power base investment [2] - Guangdong Province issued an action plan to empower the toy industry with AI, aiming for a scale - above - designated - size toy industry revenue of 100 billion yuan and an AI toy penetration rate of over 30% by 2027 [2] - Suzhou released an "AI +" urban action plan, aiming to gather over 3000 AI enterprises by the end of 2026, with an average annual growth rate of over 20% in the core scale of the intelligent economy industry [2] - The China Real Estate Association's direct - sales platform for commercial housing was officially launched, with 15 initial signing units [2] - The world's first AI Agent trading market, MuleRun, was officially launched [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - For protein meal, the night - session of soybean meal showed weak fluctuations, while rapeseed meal closed slightly higher. The September USDA report had a neutral - bearish impact on the market. With expectations of improved domestic supply, short - term soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate weakly. For oils, the night - session of oils showed strong performance. Despite the lower - than - expected August palm oil exports from Malaysia, the bearish impact has been mostly digested. Due to flood concerns in Sabah and strong Indian imports, short - term oils are expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8418, 9482, and 10053 respectively, with price changes of 42, 60, and 153, and percentage changes of 0.50%, 0.64%, and - 3.15%. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the closing prices were 3041, 2530, and 8844, with price changes of - 1, 21, and 26, and percentage changes of - 0.03%, 0.84%, and 0.29% [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 were - 68, 116, and 87, compared to previous values of 6, 202, and 129. The current M9 - 1 and RM9 - 1 spreads were - 57 and - 17, compared to previous values of - 35 and 17 [2]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4383 ringgit/ton, 1043 cents/bushel, 52 cents/pound, and 286 dollars/ton. The price changes were - 42, 6, 1, and 0, with percentage changes of - 0.95%, 0.55%, 1.72%, and 0.07% [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8640 and 8750, with percentage changes of 0.70% and 0.69%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil were 9510 and 9400, with percentage changes of 0.85% and 0.86% [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The current spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil was - 590, compared to a previous value of - 610. The current spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was 222 [2]. Import and Crushing Profits - **Profits**: The current import and crushing profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed were - 223, 32, - 148, 219, 879, and 992, compared to previous values of - 287, 13, - 176, 203, 722, and 891 [2]. Industry Information - **Brazilian Exports and Production**: Brazil's September soybean export forecast rose to 753 million tons from 743 million tons the previous week. September soybean meal export forecast rose to 219 million tons from 211 million tons, and corn export forecast reached 712 million tons from 696 million tons. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast remained at 17030 million tons, 2025 export forecast remained at 10950 million tons, and 2025 crushing forecast was raised to 5850 million tons [3]. MPOb Report - **Malaysian Palm Oil Data**: Malaysia's August palm oil production was 1.85 million tons, a 2.35% month - on - month increase. Exports were 1.32 million tons, a 0.29% month - on - month decrease. The inventory at the end of August was 2.2 million tons, a 4.18% month - on - month increase [3].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The polyolefin market saw a rally followed by a decline. From a fundamental perspective, the polyolefin spot market is still driven by supply and demand. Currently, PE inventory is being slowly digested, and PP inventory has also improved. After continuous declines, short - selling pressure has been released. With the stabilization of crude oil prices, it provides support for chemical products. The market also rebounded after continuous declines. In the short term, the recovery of terminal demand may support the market to oscillate and rebound. Future attention should be paid to the potential rebound after the market stabilizes and the situation of the Fed meeting this week [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - **LL Futures**: For the 1 - month contract, the previous day's closing price was 7234, up 2 from the day before with a 0.03% increase, trading volume was 256083, and open interest was 524036 with a decrease of 30939. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 41 (previous value - 20) [2]. - **PP Futures**: For the 1 - month contract, the previous day's closing price was 6970, up 4 from the day before with a 0.06% increase, trading volume was 324397, and open interest was 581302 with a decrease of 34852. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 30 (previous value - 22) [2]. Raw Material and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: Methanol futures were at 2377 yuan/ton (previous value 2398), Shandong propylene was at 6575 yuan/ton (previous value 6600), South China propane was at 595 dollars/ton (unchanged), PP recycled materials were at 5600 yuan/ton (unchanged), and North China powder was at 6750 yuan/ton (previous value 6700) [2]. - **Spot Market**: LL in the East China market was priced at 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton (previous value 7150 - 7700), and PP in the East China market was priced at 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. News - On Tuesday (September 16), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $64.52 per barrel, up $1.22 or 1.93% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $68.47 per barrel, up $1.03 or 1.53% from the previous trading day [2].

报告日期：2025 年 9 月 16 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：金价上行，双焦强势 据央视新闻，中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢说，关于 TikTok 问 题，中国一贯反对将科技和经贸问题政治化、工具化、武器化，绝不会以牺牲原 则立场、企业利益和国际公平正义为代价，寻求达成任何协议。中美双方就以合 作方式妥善解决 TikTok 相关问题等达成了基本框架共识。8 月社会消费品零售 同比增速放缓至 3.4%，8 月规模以上工业增加值同比 5.2%，装备制造业和高技 术制造业增势较好。1-8 月全国固定资产投资增长 0.5%，制造业投资增长 5.1%。 1-8 月房地产开发投资同比下降 12.9%，新建商品房销售面积同比下降 4.7%。 重点品种：焦煤、黄金、玻璃 焦煤：昨日夜盘双焦主力合约延续强势，焦煤持仓环比明显增加。从上周公布的 钢联数据来看，累库仍由螺纹贡献、热卷库存环比微幅下降，整体表需环比增加、 增量主要源于热卷，建材与板材之间进一步分化，铁水产量快速恢复，将进一步 加剧成材的供应的压力，叠加第二轮焦炭提降预期的出现、成材利润持续走缩、 以及同期低位的近远月价差均会对盘面走势形成压力，但 ...