Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The European container shipping line (EC) opened low and fluctuated, with the 06 contract closing at 1555.2 points, down 1.67%. After the fermentation of the global trade demand recession expectation under the influence of Trump's tariff policy, the expected node of the traditional seasonal peak season for the European line has been postponed, and the space is limited. Maersk continued to offer a large container quote of $1800 in the first week of May, using the quote at the end of April. In the second week of May, the large container quote was slightly reduced by $50 to $1750. Both HMM and ONE reduced their large container quotes starting from the 17th week to below $2000. The average large container quote at the beginning of May was around $2100, slightly lower than the current average quote at the end of April. The possibility of a peak season inflection point in early May is small, and the market is cautious about the peak season space expectation. Currently, the start of the festival stocking season for the European line has not been seen, and with more shipping capacity supply from shipping companies in the second half of May, the short - term EC may continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the subsequent capacity regulation and price increase progress of shipping companies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - **EC2504**: The latest成交价 is 1428.9 points, down 0.31%. The trading volume is 81, and the open interest on one side is 1158. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 92 [1]. - **EC2506**: The latest成交价 is 1555.2 points, down 1.67%. The trading volume is 66899, and the open interest on one side is 36947. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 1261 [1]. - **EC2508**: The latest成交价 is 1646 points, down 0.87%. The trading volume is 20099, and the open interest on one side is 30775. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 912 [1]. - **EC2510**: The latest成交价 is 1314.8 points, up 0.40%. The trading volume is 6862, and the open interest on one side is 16254 [1]. - **EC2512**: The latest成交价 is 1465.2 points, down 0.36%. The trading volume is 1041, and the open interest on one side is 3789 [1]. - **EC2602**: The latest成交价 is 1315.9 points, up 0.88%. The trading volume is 543, and the open interest on one side is 2765 [1]. - **Total**: The total trading volume is 95525, and the total open interest on one side is 91688. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 2265 [1]. Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - **Weekly Spot Index**: The SCFIS is 1402.35 points, down 1.4%; SCFI is $1356/TEU, up 1.5% [1]. - **Daily Spot Freight Rates**: TCI(20GP) is $1564/TEU, unchanged; TCI(40GP) is $2538/FEU, unchanged [1]. - **Basis Spread**: The basis spread on the previous trading day was - 152.85 points, a change of - 14.6 points compared with the day before [1]. Spot Market Data - Shipping Capacity - **Capacity Allocation**: The capacity allocation on the Asia - Europe route is 489606 TEU, a decrease of 1000 TEU. The idle capacity ratio is 2.0%. For different types of container ships, the idle capacity ratios of 17000TEU +, 12000 - 16999TEU, and 8000 - 11999TEU container ships are 1.3%, 0.2%, and 2.4% respectively [4]. - **Average Speed**: The average speed of container ships is 14.01 knots, and the average speeds of 17000TEU + and 12000 - 16999TEU container ships are 15.65 and 15.41 knots respectively [4]. - **Capacity in Port**: The capacity in port in Rotterdam is 24.590,000 TEU, in Hamburg is 9.870,000 TEU, and in Singapore is 34.750,000 TEU [4]. - **Routing Situation**: The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden is 7, the north - bound traffic volume of the Suez Canal is 4, and the south - bound traffic volume is 3 [4]. - **Time Charter Rates**: The time charter rates for 9000TEU, 6500TEU, and 2500TEU ships are $106000, $73500, and $33750 per day respectively [4].

策 略 征关税对于需求的不利影响。同时，上周连续止跌反弹会后，市场情绪略有平复。后市关注 油价运行方向以及聚烯烃下游消费热度。 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货投资咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货投资咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 无关。 ...

| CNF到岸价: | | --- | | 指标 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 2025/4/18 申万期货品种策略日报- 油脂油料 申银万国期货研究所 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；投资咨询号:Z0019570） lijy@sywgqh.com.cn 国 内 期 货 市 场 豆油主力 棕榈油主力 菜油主力 豆粕主力 菜粕主力 花生主力 前日收盘价 7748 8204 9391 3020 2487 8844 涨跌 96 126 66 7 -19 26 涨跌幅(%) 1.25% 1.56% -3.15% 0.23% -0.76% 0.29% 价差 Y9-1 P9-1 OI9-1 Y-P09 OI-Y09 OI-P09 现值 56 54 157 -456 1643 1187 前值 16 68 181 -426 1673 1247 比价-价差 M9-1 RM9-1 M-RM09 M/RM09 Y/M09 Y-M09 现值 -24 182 434 1.17 2.57 4728 前值 -26 169 419 1.16 2.54 4639 国 际 期 货 市 场 BMD棕榈油/ 林吉特/吨 CBOT大豆/美 ...

报告日期：2025 年 4 月 17 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：商品涨跌互现，金价再创新高 国家统计局公布数据，一季度国内生产总值同比增长 5.4%，环比增长 1.2%。3 月 规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长 7.7% ，装备制造业和高技术制造业较快增 长，新能源汽车继续保持高速增长态势。由于汽车购买量大幅增加，美国 3 月零 售销售环比增长 1.4%，增幅创两年多来最大，表明消费者正赶在惩罚性汽车关 税之前购买汽车。但随着特朗普推进关税，一些通胀预期指标飙升，削弱了美国 人对自己财务状况的看法，低收入消费者已面临困境，而较富裕的消费者则受到 股市抛售打击，这给支出前景蒙上了阴影。现货黄金史上首次站上 3300 美元/盎 司，日内暴涨 70 美元，涨幅超 2%。受金价大幅波动影响，部分投资者选择囤货 待涨。 重点品种：橡胶、原油、贵金属 橡胶：周三橡胶走势回落，国内产区气候较好，产区逐步开割，泰国减产季即将 结束。青岛地区总库存持续增加，库存周期转变较为明显，美关税政策影响短期 反复，预计仍将延续，关税政策本质上对原料端不利，中长期终端消费的变化路 径仍存在不确定性，消费端分析逻辑可能发生改变，需要持 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel prices in the short - term are expected to show different trends. Copper and zinc may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations, aluminum may have short - term oscillatory movements, and nickel may also have short - term oscillations [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - Night - session copper prices rose over 1%. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices challenge smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with power investment driven by the grid growing strongly, home appliance production continuing to increase, and new energy vehicle copper demand expected to be consolidated. Copper prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and factors such as US tariff progress, exchange rates, inventory, and basis need attention [1]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices fell. Concentrate processing fees have been rising. Domestic auto production and sales, infrastructure, and home appliances are performing well, and the decline in real estate data has narrowed. The market expects an improvement in concentrate supply and a recovery in smelting supply this year. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and factors such as US tariff progress, exchange rates, and smelting output should be monitored [1]. Aluminum - Night - session Shanghai aluminum prices rose 0.33%. US tariff policies are inconsistent, and the non - ferrous sector is under pressure. Although the market has a bottom - fishing sentiment due to low alumina prices and low profits, supply is still sufficient, limiting price increases. Downstream demand is warming up in April. Considering tariff uncertainties, Shanghai aluminum may oscillate in the short term [1]. Nickel - Night - session Shanghai nickel prices rose 0.72%. Nickel ore supply is uncertain, and market sentiment has improved. The PNBP policy in Indonesia may lead to higher nickel ore prices. Precursor manufacturers have concentrated procurement needs, and nickel salt prices may rise. Stainless steel demand is average. Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term [1]. 4. Market Data | Variety | Domestic Previous Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous LME 3 - month Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M) (USD/ton) | LME Inventory (ton) | LME Inventory Daily Change (ton) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Copper | 75,350 | 35 | 9,189 | - 32.22 | 216,250 | 3,775 | | Aluminum | 19,615 | 20 | 2,389 | - 37.00 | 436,975 | - 2,350 | | Zinc | 22,180 | 165 | 2,578 | - 31.57 | 190,550 | 78,525 | | Nickel | 124,140 | - 1,510 | 15,595 | - 202.64 | 202,590 | - 228 | | Lead | 16,655 | - 5 | 1,904 | - 16.24 | 283,125 | 17,575 | | Tin | 255,150 | 2,660 | 30,960 | - 264.00 | 2,845 | 0 | [2]

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2506 | TS2509 | TF2506 | TF2509 | T2506 | T2509 | TL2506 | TL2509 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.562 | 102.724 | 106.390 | 106.670 | 109.135 | 109.235 | 120.04 | 120.21 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.544 | 102.718 | 106.295 | 106.560 | 108.960 | 109.065 | 119.78 | 119.9 | | | 涨跌 | 0.018 | 0.006 | 0.095 | 0.110 | 0.175 | 0.170 | 0.260 | 0.310 | ...

申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 投资咨询号Z0015919） 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货投资咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货投资咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨，投资者应合 ...

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2025/4/17 | 星期四 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 3743.00 | 3726.60 | 3694.80 | 3642.00 | 前日收盘价 | 3744.40 | 3722.40 | 3690.40 | 3638.80 | | | 涨跌 | -2.60 | -7.40 | -8.60 | -8.20 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 | -0.0 ...

| | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；投资咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7652 | 8078 | 9325 | 3013 | 2506 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | -24 | -642 | 70 | -53 | -78 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | -0.31% | -7.36% | -3.15% | -1.73% | -3.02% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 市 | 现值 | 16 | 68 | 181 | -426 | 1673 | 1247 | | 场 | 前值 | 58 | 76 | 200 | -458 | 16 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economic outlook is under pressure due to Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, which has led to downward revisions of economic growth forecasts by OPEC and a decline in global trade demand [1][3]. - The A-share market has withstood the downward pressure from tariffs, and market confidence has been boosted by a series of stabilizing measures. However, future performance depends on policies to boost the domestic economy [2][10]. - Oil prices are expected to decline in the short term due to increased supply and reduced demand, but low prices may provide the US with more room to sanction Venezuela and Iran [3][12]. - The container shipping market on the European route is facing challenges, with a post - poned and limited seasonal peak, and a possible oversupply situation [3][35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The Trump administration is considering closing nearly 30 overseas embassies and consulates to adjust its overseas diplomatic presence [5]. - **Domestic News**: China's monetary policy is supportive and "moderately loose." The central bank will take action when the economy faces significant shocks [5]. - **Industry News**: On April 15, the purchase price of coke in Shandong and Ordos markets increased [6]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 decreased by 0.17%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.50%, and the US dollar index rose by 0.58%. Other commodities such as gold, silver, and some base metals also showed various price changes [7]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices declined slightly. A - share indices were mixed, with the beauty care sector leading the gain and the national defense and military industry sector leading the decline. The market confidence has been boosted, and it is recommended to be cautiously bullish [2][9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds declined slightly. The central bank's open - market operation led to a net withdrawal of funds. The US economic and trade situation affects the bond market, and the central bank may adjust monetary policy, which may support short - term bond futures prices but increase the volatility of long - term bond futures prices [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: SC futures fell 0.11% at night. OPEC lowered global economic growth forecasts, and oil supply decreased slightly in March. Oil prices are expected to decline in the short term [3][12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol futures fell 0.17% at night. Coastal inventories increased slightly, and the overall device operating rate rose. It is expected to be bullish in the short term [13]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices adjusted downward. The domestic production area is gradually opening for harvesting, and the Thai production - reduction season is ending. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [14][15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins declined slightly. The market is affected by tariffs, and attention should be paid to cost, demand, and oil prices [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures declined. Glass inventory is slowly decreasing, and soda ash has a weak supply - demand situation [17]. - **PTA**: PTA futures prices are weak due to reduced textile orders and insufficient cost support [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol futures face pressure due to high - level production, rising inventory, and limited downstream demand improvement [19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices continued to rise. The trade war has increased market uncertainty, and gold is in a strong upward trend [20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell slightly at night. Uncertainty in US tariff policies and stable domestic demand may lead to wide - range fluctuations in copper prices [22]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell at night. Uncertain US tariff policies and expected improvement in supply may cause wide - range fluctuations [23]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum futures fell 0.31%. Although the impact of tariffs has eased, supply is still sufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel futures rose 0.97%. Uncertainty in nickel ore supply and mixed factors may lead to short - term fluctuations [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has decreased slightly, demand has increased, and inventory has increased. If production is not reduced, lithium prices may fall further [26]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are weak due to supply expectations, but iron - water production may increase, and demand still has support. It may show a weak trend after a short - term rebound [27][28]. - **Steel**: Steel is not directly affected by tariffs, but indirect impacts may suppress the market. The future trend depends on production and demand [29]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal futures prices fluctuated. Coke prices increased, and downstream demand may support the valuation of coking coal and coke [30]. - **Ferroalloys**: Ferroalloy futures prices declined. Supply reduction and demand recovery may affect the market, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion [31]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and palm oil rose at night, while rapeseed oil was weak. Malaysian palm oil inventory increased, and the report had a neutral impact. Oil prices may boost the oils and fats sector [32]. - **Protein Meals**: Bean and rapeseed meal futures were weak. US soybean import costs may rise, and far - month bean meal prices may be supported [33][34]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: EC futures weakened. The traditional peak season is postponed and limited, and the market may continue to fluctuate at a low level [3][35].