| | 1、央行公告称，1月8日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了99亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量99亿元， | | --- | --- | | | 中标量99亿元。Wind数据显示，当日无逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放99亿元。 | | | 2、中共中央政治局常务委员会1月8日全天召开会议，会议强调，今年要锚定"十五五"时期经济社会发展的重大战略 | | | 任务，统一意志、形成合力，共同推进各领域工作，努力实现良好开局。树立和践行正确政绩观，坚持为人民出政绩 | | | 、以实干出政绩。加强党组自身建设，认真履行全面从严治党主体责任，切实增强自我革命的自觉性坚定性。 3、商务部举行例行新闻发布会，回应近期热点问题。对于Meta以20亿美元收购人工智能平台Manus，商务部新闻发言 | | | 人何亚东表示，企业从事对外投资、技术出口、数据出境、跨境并购等活动，须符合中国法律法规，履行法定程序。 | | | 商务部将会同相关部门对此项收购开展评估调查。对于两用物项对日出口管制，何亚东表示，涉及民事用途的不会因 | | | 此受到影响。 | | 宏观 | 4、2025年12月，我国消费市场稳 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core Views - Copper: The copper price closed 1.93% lower overnight. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it continued to grow overall. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Supply disruptions have led to a shift in the global copper supply - demand outlook to a deficit, and short - term copper prices are more affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Zinc: The zinc price closed 0.82% lower overnight. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, while smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the current sentiment in the non - ferrous market as a whole needs to be monitored. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Metal Market Data - **Copper**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 103,170 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 65 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 12,900 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 14.98 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 146,075 tons with a daily increase of 3,525 tons [2] - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,350 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 190 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,075 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 17.33 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 504,250 tons with a daily decrease of 2,500 tons [2] - **Zinc**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,315 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 155 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,168 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 45.20 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 105,775 tons with a daily decrease of 75 tons [2] - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 147,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 6,630 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 17,895 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 223.90 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 255,546 tons with a daily increase of 192 tons [2] - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,755 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 105 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,060 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 43.10 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 233,350 tons with a daily decrease of 3,550 tons [2] - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 357,800 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 6,210 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 44,323 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 52.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 5,420 tons with a daily increase of 5 tons [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The long - term upward trend of precious metals is expected to continue, driven by loose liquidity, central bank gold purchases, and supply - demand gaps for silver and platinum [2]. - The long - slow bull market pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated, with the triple resonance of "policy support, capital escort, and industry drive" [3][11]. - Different varieties have different trends. For example, crude oil is expected to be bearish, while rubber is expected to be bullish [14][16]. 3. Summary by Category a. Market News - As of the end of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.3579 trillion, a month - on - month increase of $1.15 billion, hitting a new high since December 2015. Gold reserves were 74.15 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces, with 14 consecutive months of increase [1][8]. - The central bank will conduct a 3 - month 1.1 trillion yuan repurchase operation on January 8 [1][7]. - In December 2025, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1]. - The US ISM services PMI in December 2025 rose 1.8 points to 54.4, the highest since October 2024. US private - sector employment increased by 41,000 in December, reversing the previous decline but lower than market expectations [1]. b. Key Varieties Analysis - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are in a volatile consolidation. Gold's long - term upward trend is supported by factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit and central bank gold purchases. Silver and platinum prices are expected to rise due to macro - environment and supply - demand gaps [2][20]. - **Stock Index**: US stock indexes were mixed. In China, the A - share market is expected to benefit from supply - side reform, RMB appreciation, and overseas capital inflows, consolidating the long - slow bull market pattern [3][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds declined slightly. The central bank's reverse repurchase operation and economic data affect the bond market. The short - term price of treasury bond futures is supported by expected policy easing, but the stock - bond seesaw effect makes the bond price weak [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is expected to be bearish. Methanol is in a short - term weakening trend due to factors such as inventory increases. Rubber is expected to be bullish as supply elasticity weakens [14][15][16]. - **Metals**: Copper, zinc, and aluminum prices are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and macro - environment. Carbonate lithium is expected to be strong in the short - term [21][22][24]. - **Agricultural Products**: Protein meal is affected by Brazilian soybean production and domestic supply expectations. Oils and fats have limited short - term fundamental improvement. Sugar is expected to be in a short - term volatile trend. Cotton is supported by factors such as reduced planting area expectations [28][29][32]. - **Shipping Index**: The freight rate of the European container shipping line may see a turning point as the Spring Festival approaches [33].

报告日期：2026 年 1 月 7 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 上证指数创史上最长连阳纪录 中国人民银行部署 2026 年重点工作，要求灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政 策工具，保持流动性充裕。据央视财经，我国情绪消费市场规模快速攀升，从 2022 年 1.63 万亿元升至 2024 年 2.31 万亿元，2025 年将达 2.72 万亿元，2029 年将突破 4.5 万亿元。昨日上证指数收涨 1.5%报 4083.67 点，创史上最长连阳 纪录。开源航班追踪数据和地面观察员的观测显示，近日有大批美军飞机突然飞 往欧洲，其中 1 月 3 日至少有 10 架 C-17 运输机从美国飞往欧洲，一名美国高级 官员表示，特朗普总统及其团队正在讨论多种获取格陵兰岛的方案。隔夜美债收 益率上行，美股再创新高，夜盘大宗商品价格普遍走强。 重点品种：股指、铝、焦煤 股指：美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指继续大幅上涨，有色金属板块领涨， 通信板块下跌，市场成交额 2.83 万亿元。资金方面，1 月 5 日融资余额增加 192.66 亿元至 25434.22 亿元。我们预计 2026 年供给侧改革持续并将推升大宗商品的价 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper: Night-time copper prices closed 0.68% lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month-on-month, overall growth continued. Power investment is stable, auto production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market remains weak. Supply disruptions in mines have shifted the global copper supply-demand outlook to a deficit, and short-term copper prices are more affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: Night-time zinc prices closed 0.37% higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally high. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, auto production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but attention needs to be paid to the current sentiment of the overall non-ferrous market. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Night-time price change: Closed 0.68% lower [2] - Supply situation: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting output shows high growth despite a monthly decline [2] - Downstream demand: Power investment is stable, auto production and sales grow positively, home appliance production declines, and real estate is weak [2] - Market outlook: Supply-demand expected to turn into a deficit, short-term prices affected by market sentiment [2] - Key factors to watch: US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Domestic previous day's futures closing price: 105,330 yuan/ton [2] - Domestic basis: 0 yuan/ton [2] - Previous day's LME 3 - month closing price: 12,992 dollars/ton [2] - LME spot premium/discount: 2.98 dollars/ton [2] - LME inventory: 142,550 tons, with a daily change of -2,775 tons [2] Zinc - Night-time price change: Closed 0.37% higher [2] - Supply situation: Concentrate supply is temporarily tight, smelting output continues to grow [2] - Downstream demand: Galvanized sheet inventory is high, infrastructure investment growth slows, auto production and sales grow positively, home appliance production declines, and real estate is weak [2] - Market outlook: Overall supply - demand difference is not obvious, attention to market sentiment [2] - Key factors to watch: US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Domestic previous day's futures closing price: 24,275 yuan/ton [2] - Domestic basis: 175 yuan/ton [2] - Previous day's LME 3 - month closing price: 3,195 dollars/ton [2] - LME spot premium/discount: -36.67 dollars/ton [2] - LME inventory: 105,850 tons, with a daily change of -475 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 24,285 yuan/ton, domestic basis -220 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month closing price 3,086 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount -22.70 dollars/ton, LME inventory 506,750 tons, daily change -2,500 tons [2] - Nickel: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 139,410 yuan/ton, domestic basis -6,850 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month closing price 17,003 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount -175.35 dollars/ton, LME inventory 255,354 tons, daily change 72 tons [2] - Lead: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 17,490 yuan/ton, domestic basis -105 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month closing price 2,024 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount -38.60 dollars/ton, LME inventory 236,900 tons, daily change -2,425 tons [2] - Tin: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 348,170 yuan/ton, domestic basis -14,710 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month closing price 42,466 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount -65.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory 5,415 tons, daily change 0 tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The previous trading day saw a general decline in Treasury bond futures prices, with the T2603 contract dropping by 0.14% and an increase in open interest. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends, and key - term Treasury bond yields generally rose. The current market risk preference is strong, and under the stock - bond seesaw effect, Treasury bond futures prices are weak, but the expectation of loose policies at the beginning of the year provides some support for short - term Treasury bond futures prices [2][3] Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - Yesterday's closing prices of TS2603, TS2606, TF2603, TF2606, T2603, T2606, TL2603, and TL2606 were 102.366, 102.390, 105.570, 105.570, 107.700, 107.655, 110.93, and 111.08 respectively, showing declines compared to the previous day. Their respective price drops were - 0.048, - 0.062, - 0.135, - 0.150, - 0.155, - 0.190, - 0.390, and - 0.410, with percentage drops of - 0.05%, - 0.06%, - 0.13%, - 0.14%, - 0.14%, - 0.18%, - 0.35%, and - 0.37%. Open interest and trading volume data were also provided, along with changes in open interest. The cross - term spreads of some contracts increased compared to the previous values [2] - The IRR% of the active CTD bonds for each contract were 1.3291, 1.4752, 1.6297, 1.5494, 1.3585, 1.1945, 2.3902, and 2.2553 respectively, at a low level with no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day rate decreased by 0.1bp, DR007 rate increased by 0.69bp, and GC007 rate increased by 1.7bp [2] - Key - term Chinese Treasury bond yields generally rose. The 10Y Treasury bond yield increased by 2.21bp to 1.88%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 41.9bp [2] Overseas Market - The previous trading day saw the US 10Y Treasury bond yield increase by 1bp, the German 10Y Treasury bond yield decrease by 4bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yield increase by 1.2bp. The internal - external yield spreads were also provided [2] Macroeconomic News - On January 6, the central bank conducted 16.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 312.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal for the day was 296.3 billion yuan [3] - The 2026 work conference of the People's Bank of China emphasized continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment efforts [3] - The 2026 national foreign exchange management work conference emphasized building a more convenient, open, safe, and intelligent foreign exchange management system, promoting reform and opening - up in the foreign exchange field [3] - China decided to ban the export of all dual - use items to Japanese military users and for military purposes [3] - China's emotional consumption market scale has been rising rapidly, expected to exceed 4.5 trillion yuan in 2029 [3] - The US is discussing multiple options to acquire Greenland, including purchase, free - association agreement, and military means [3] Industry Information - Most money market interest rates rose. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase for the 1 - day, 7 - day, and 14 - day varieties increased, while the 1 - month variety decreased to a new low in over a month. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank lending also showed mixed trends [3] - US Treasury bond yields rose across the board. The 2 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year yields all increased to varying degrees [3] Comments and Strategies - Treasury bond futures prices were generally weak. The central bank's net withdrawal of reverse repurchases, short - term Shibor trends, overseas events, and economic data all had an impact. The new regulations on public fund sales and the central bank's policy orientation also affected the market. The current strong market risk preference led to weak Treasury bond futures prices, but the expectation of loose policies at the beginning of the year supported short - term Treasury bond futures prices [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In 2026, supply - side reform is expected to continue, pushing up commodity prices and driving up resource - based stocks [2]. - Since December, the RMB has appreciated against the US dollar. With the weakening of the US dollar in the interest - rate cut cycle, overseas funds are expected to flow back, leading to the revaluation of Chinese assets [2]. - Under multiple positive factors, the long - term and slow - rising pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated, forming a triple resonance of "policy support, capital escort, and industry drive" [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and alternate quarter) were 4714.00, 4702.60, 4697.00, and 4649.80 respectively, with increases of 95.60, 98.40, 103.80, and 101.60. The trading volumes were 35243.00, 3875.00, 72812.00, and 11757.00, and the open interests were 57682.00, 6427.00, 173732.00, and 46361.00, with changes of - 527.00, 1026.00, 6857.00, and 845.00 respectively [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 3097.40, 3099.60, 3098.80, and 3088.80, with increases of 73.20, 78.40, 77.20, and 77.00. The trading volumes were 14001.00, 1501.00, 35869.00, and 4657.00, and the open interests were 19315.00, 1966.00, 56614.00, and 14295.00, with changes of - 66.00, 466.00, 2964.00, and 179.00 respectively [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7664.80, 7624.80, 7596.00, and 7417.00, with increases of 209.60, 218.20, 229.40, and 234.60. The trading volumes were 34931.00, 6676.00, 79757.00, and 18834.00, and the open interests were 60955.00, 15432.00, 160143.00, and 60304.00, with changes of 1787.00, 2372.00, 15069.00, and 3432.00 respectively [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7759.20, 7697.80, 7639.00, and 7403.40, with increases of 179.60, 192.00, 200.00, and 198.80. The trading volumes were 45173.00, 8782.00, 103703.00, and 24252.00, and the open interests were 79432.00, 20240.00, 189842.00, and 83969.00, with changes of - 1493.00, 3064.00, 8761.00, and 3014.00 respectively [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were - 11.40, 2.20, - 40.00, and - 61.40 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 12.60, - 0.80, - 47.80, and - 77.00 [1]. 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4717.75, 3099.75, 7651.20, and 7753.88, with increases of 1.90%, 2.26%, 2.49%, and 2.09% respectively. Their trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 234.14, 53.50, 251.85, and 305.37, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 6305.77, 1695.62, 5046.90, and 5422.31 [1]. - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the energy industry had a decline of 1.21%, while the raw materials, industrial, and optional consumption industries had increases of 2.02%, 1.56%, and 0.46% respectively. The main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology industries had increases of 2.13%, 3.60%, 1.50%, and 3.69% respectively. The telecommunications and public utilities industries had increases of 1.14% and 0.34% respectively [1]. 3. Futures - Spot Basis - **CSI 300 Basis**: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and alternate quarter) against the CSI 300 were - 3.75, - 15.15, - 20.75, and - 67.95 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 7.74, - 20.34, - 30.14, and - 74.94 [1]. - **SSE 50 Basis**: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts against the SSE 50 were - 2.35, - 0.15, - 0.95, and - 10.95 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 5.13, - 5.93, - 6.13, and - 14.73 [1]. - **CSI 500 Basis**: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts against the CSI 500 were 13.60, - 26.40, - 55.20, and - 234.20 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 9.97, - 57.77, - 102.77, and - 290.17 [1]. - **CSI 1000 Basis**: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts against the CSI 1000 were 5.32, - 56.08, - 114.88, and - 350.48 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 13.88, - 90.88, - 159.08, and - 397.28 [1]. 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4023.42, 13828.63, 8439.12, and 3294.55, with increases of 1.38%, 2.24%, 2.12%, and 2.85% respectively [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index were 26347.24, 0.00, 6902.05, and 24829.90, with increases of 0.03%, DIV/0!, 0.64%, and 1.18% respectively [1]. 5. Macro Information - The CSRC held a cross - departmental work promotion symposium on the comprehensive prevention and control system of financial fraud in the capital market, aiming to strengthen administrative, criminal, and civil coordination and combat financial fraud [2]. - Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with South Korean President Lee Jae - myung, and the two sides signed 15 cooperation documents in multiple fields [2]. - Chinese Premier Li Qiang conducted research in Guangdong, emphasizing the promotion of new technologies and products such as robots and drones [2]. - Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued a document to promote green consumption, supporting the purchase of new - energy vehicles and green smart home appliances [2]. - Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian responded to the issue of China's import of Venezuelan oil, stating that China - Venezuela cooperation is protected by international and bilateral laws [2]. 6. Industry Information - The China Tourism Academy predicted that the number of ice - snow tourism participants in the 2025 - 2026 winter would reach 360 million, and the revenue would reach 450 billion yuan [2]. - The preliminary estimate of the China Passenger Car Association showed that the new - energy vehicle wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers in December 2025 was 1.57 million, a year - on - year increase of 4% and a month - on - month decrease of 8%. The cumulative wholesale volume in 2025 was 15.33 million, a year - on - year increase of 25% [2]. - According to CRIC's monitoring, in 2025, the new land acquisition value, total price, and construction area of 100 real - estate enterprises were 2261.4 billion yuan, 1102.7 billion yuan, and 100.9 million square meters respectively, with year - on - year changes of + 2%, + 3%, and - 5%. Investment was concentrated in first - and second - tier cities [2]. - Chongqing will carry out a special rectification action on the online environment in the real - estate field, focusing on real - estate marketing accounts on major platforms [2].

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.454 | 102.492 | 105.760 | 105.745 | 107.855 | 107.845 | 111.32 | 111.49 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.486 | 102.526 | 105.815 | 105.820 | 107.860 | 107.875 | 111.41 | 111.63 | | | 涨跌 | -0.032 | -0.034 | -0.055 | -0.075 | -0.005 | -0.030 | -0.090 | -0.140 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price rose 1.28% overnight, hitting a new record high. The supply of concentrate remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it continues to grow overall. The supply disruption of copper mines has led to a shift in the global copper supply - demand expectation to a deficit, and the short - term copper price is more affected by market sentiment [2]. - The zinc price rose overnight. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has declined, the supply of concentrate is in a stage of tightness, and smelting output continues to grow. The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals needs to be concerned [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Price change: The copper price rose 1.28% overnight and hit a new record high [2]. - Supply situation: The supply of concentrate is tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it continues to grow overall [2]. - Demand situation: Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate market is weak [2]. - Market expectation: The supply disruption of copper mines has led to a shift in the global copper supply - demand expectation to a deficit, and the short - term copper price is more affected by market sentiment [2]. - Data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 101,190 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 45 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 13,088 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 41.98 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 145,325 tons, and the daily change was - 2,100 tons [2]. Zinc - Price change: The zinc price rose overnight [2]. - Supply situation: The processing fee of zinc concentrate has declined, the supply of concentrate is in a stage of tightness, and smelting output continues to grow [2]. - Demand situation: The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate market is weak [2]. - Market expectation: The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals needs to be concerned [2]. - Data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 23,800 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 165 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,208 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 36.30 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 106,325 tons, and the daily change was - 1,300 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 23,610 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 230 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,090 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 27.69 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 509,250 tons, and the daily change was - 2,500 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 133,750 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 5,920 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 17,290 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 151.78 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 255,282 tons, and the daily change was 120 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,375 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 75 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,030 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 45.52 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 239,325 tons, and the daily change was - 2,600 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 334,030 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 7,990 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 42,560 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 30.01 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 5,415 tons, and the daily change was - 5 tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a bias assessment for various varieties, with some considered bullish (2) and others bearish (2). Bullish varieties include multiple stock indices (IH, IF, IC, IM), bonds (TF, TS), rubber, rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, silver, copper, lithium carbonate, cotton, sugar, corn; bearish varieties include crude oil, methanol, apple, and container shipping to Europe [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: The global economy shows signs of change, with the US economy facing challenges such as a decline in the ISM manufacturing index, while China's economy has positive signals like the improvement of manufacturing PMI. The Fed's expected interest - rate cuts and global easing monetary policies will have an impact on various asset prices [1][11]. - **Asset Price Trends**: Precious metals are expected to have a long - term upward trend due to factors such as inflation relief, weak employment, and supply - demand gaps. Copper prices are at a high level, affected by factors such as supply shortages and market sentiment. Oil prices are expected to be bearish in the short term, but the global oil market supply - demand balance will not change significantly in the next 12 months [2][3][13]. - **A - share Market**: The A - share market is expected to form a long - term and stable upward trend under the influence of supply - side reform, RMB appreciation, capital inflows, and policy support [10]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Daily Main News 3.1.1 International News - On January 5th, China and South Korea signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation in safeguarding children's rights and well - being, aiming to strengthen exchanges and cooperation in the field of children's development [6]. 3.1.2 Domestic News - The national parenting subsidy in 2026 is open for application starting from January 5th. As of now, 31 provinces have issued parenting subsidies in 2025, with over 24 million people receiving them and a subsidy issuance rate of about 80% [7]. 3.1.3 Industry News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a symposium on promoting the cross - departmental work of the comprehensive prevention and control system for financial fraud in the capital market, emphasizing the need to improve the system, strengthen coordination, and combat financial fraud [8]. 3.2 Overseas Daily Earnings - The report provides the daily earnings data of various overseas assets on January 4th and 5th, including stock indices (S&P 500, C STOXX50, FTSE China A50 futures), the US dollar index, oil prices (ICE Brent crude oil), precious metals (London gold, London silver), and other commodities. Most assets showed an upward trend [9]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Indices**: US stock indices rose, and the A - share market also increased significantly. It is expected that supply - side reform in 2026 will drive up commodity prices and resource - related stocks. The appreciation of the RMB is expected to attract overseas funds, and the A - share market is expected to form a long - term upward trend [10]. - **Bonds**: Bond prices fell slightly. Overseas events and changes in the US economic data affected the bond market. China's economic data showed improvement, and the government's policies are expected to support the short - term bond futures prices [11][12]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overseas oil prices rebounded after a sharp decline. Venezuela has large oil reserves, but its future is uncertain, and short - term risks may affect production. The global oil market supply - demand balance will not change significantly in the next 12 months, and oil prices are expected to be bearish [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices rose at night. The开工 rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased slightly, while the overall methanol plant's operating rate increased. Coastal methanol inventories rose significantly, and short - term methanol prices are expected to be weak [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded and then fell. Downstream demand has peaked, and the cost support is low. Polyolefin prices may move sideways in the future [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures fell slightly, and soda ash futures mainly declined. Both are in the process of inventory digestion. Glass inventory digestion is accelerating under the supply - contraction pattern, while soda ash still needs time for supply - demand digestion [16]. 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver continued to rebound. The weak US economy, expected interest - rate cuts, and supply - demand gaps support the long - term upward trend of precious metals, although short - term fluctuations may occur [17][18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night, reaching a new high. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the global copper supply - demand situation is expected to turn to a shortage. Short - term copper prices are more affected by market sentiment [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The supply of zinc concentrates is temporarily tight, and the overall zinc supply - demand difference is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the market sentiment, the US dollar, and downstream demand [20]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rose, reaching a new high. The macro - level focuses on employment and interest - rate cut expectations. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable in the short - to - medium term, and demand is still acceptable. Attention should be paid to the impact of the approaching Spring Festival on downstream demand [21]. 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke fell slightly at night. The production of domestic clean coal decreased, while the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume remained high. The iron - water production and the profitability of sample steel mills were stable. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate [22]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated and rose at night. Brazilian soybean planting and harvesting progress is similar to previous years, and the US soybean export sales are lower than expected. The domestic market is affected by supply expectations and state - reserve auctions [23][24]. - **Oils and Fats**: The price of soybean oil fluctuated and rose at night, while palm and rapeseed oils were weak. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase, and the supply - demand situation of oils and fats will not improve significantly in the short term [25]. - **Sugar**: The price of sugar futures oscillated. Internationally, Brazilian sugar production is coming to an end, and the supply pressure is relieved. Domestically, the sugar production season has begun, and the supply is increasing. The import policy and production cost support the price, but the short - term price is expected to remain low [26]. - **Cotton**: The price of cotton futures was strong. Although the new cotton harvest is good, the sales progress is fast. There are rumors that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang may decrease, and the improvement of Sino - US relations is also beneficial to cotton exports [27]. 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price of container shipping to Europe opened high and fluctuated. The SCFIS European line index rose, and shipping companies continued to raise prices. Due to the late Spring Festival, the demand and price - support from shipping companies exceeded expectations. As the Spring Festival approaches, the price inflection point may become clear [28][29].