Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel prices in the short - term are expected to show different trends. Copper and zinc may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations, aluminum may have short - term oscillatory movements, and nickel may also have short - term oscillations [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - Night - session copper prices rose over 1%. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices challenge smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with power investment driven by the grid growing strongly, home appliance production continuing to increase, and new energy vehicle copper demand expected to be consolidated. Copper prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and factors such as US tariff progress, exchange rates, inventory, and basis need attention [1]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices fell. Concentrate processing fees have been rising. Domestic auto production and sales, infrastructure, and home appliances are performing well, and the decline in real estate data has narrowed. The market expects an improvement in concentrate supply and a recovery in smelting supply this year. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and factors such as US tariff progress, exchange rates, and smelting output should be monitored [1]. Aluminum - Night - session Shanghai aluminum prices rose 0.33%. US tariff policies are inconsistent, and the non - ferrous sector is under pressure. Although the market has a bottom - fishing sentiment due to low alumina prices and low profits, supply is still sufficient, limiting price increases. Downstream demand is warming up in April. Considering tariff uncertainties, Shanghai aluminum may oscillate in the short term [1]. Nickel - Night - session Shanghai nickel prices rose 0.72%. Nickel ore supply is uncertain, and market sentiment has improved. The PNBP policy in Indonesia may lead to higher nickel ore prices. Precursor manufacturers have concentrated procurement needs, and nickel salt prices may rise. Stainless steel demand is average. Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term [1]. 4. Market Data | Variety | Domestic Previous Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous LME 3 - month Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M) (USD/ton) | LME Inventory (ton) | LME Inventory Daily Change (ton) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Copper | 75,350 | 35 | 9,189 | - 32.22 | 216,250 | 3,775 | | Aluminum | 19,615 | 20 | 2,389 | - 37.00 | 436,975 | - 2,350 | | Zinc | 22,180 | 165 | 2,578 | - 31.57 | 190,550 | 78,525 | | Nickel | 124,140 | - 1,510 | 15,595 | - 202.64 | 202,590 | - 228 | | Lead | 16,655 | - 5 | 1,904 | - 16.24 | 283,125 | 17,575 | | Tin | 255,150 | 2,660 | 30,960 | - 264.00 | 2,845 | 0 | [2]

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2506 | TS2509 | TF2506 | TF2509 | T2506 | T2509 | TL2506 | TL2509 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.562 | 102.724 | 106.390 | 106.670 | 109.135 | 109.235 | 120.04 | 120.21 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.544 | 102.718 | 106.295 | 106.560 | 108.960 | 109.065 | 119.78 | 119.9 | | | 涨跌 | 0.018 | 0.006 | 0.095 | 0.110 | 0.175 | 0.170 | 0.260 | 0.310 | ...

申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 投资咨询号Z0015919） 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货投资咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货投资咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨，投资者应合 ...

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2025/4/17 | 星期四 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 3743.00 | 3726.60 | 3694.80 | 3642.00 | 前日收盘价 | 3744.40 | 3722.40 | 3690.40 | 3638.80 | | | 涨跌 | -2.60 | -7.40 | -8.60 | -8.20 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 | -0.0 ...

| | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；投资咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7652 | 8078 | 9325 | 3013 | 2506 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | -24 | -642 | 70 | -53 | -78 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | -0.31% | -7.36% | -3.15% | -1.73% | -3.02% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 市 | 现值 | 16 | 68 | 181 | -426 | 1673 | 1247 | | 场 | 前值 | 58 | 76 | 200 | -458 | 16 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economic outlook is under pressure due to Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, which has led to downward revisions of economic growth forecasts by OPEC and a decline in global trade demand [1][3]. - The A-share market has withstood the downward pressure from tariffs, and market confidence has been boosted by a series of stabilizing measures. However, future performance depends on policies to boost the domestic economy [2][10]. - Oil prices are expected to decline in the short term due to increased supply and reduced demand, but low prices may provide the US with more room to sanction Venezuela and Iran [3][12]. - The container shipping market on the European route is facing challenges, with a post - poned and limited seasonal peak, and a possible oversupply situation [3][35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The Trump administration is considering closing nearly 30 overseas embassies and consulates to adjust its overseas diplomatic presence [5]. - **Domestic News**: China's monetary policy is supportive and "moderately loose." The central bank will take action when the economy faces significant shocks [5]. - **Industry News**: On April 15, the purchase price of coke in Shandong and Ordos markets increased [6]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 decreased by 0.17%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.50%, and the US dollar index rose by 0.58%. Other commodities such as gold, silver, and some base metals also showed various price changes [7]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices declined slightly. A - share indices were mixed, with the beauty care sector leading the gain and the national defense and military industry sector leading the decline. The market confidence has been boosted, and it is recommended to be cautiously bullish [2][9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds declined slightly. The central bank's open - market operation led to a net withdrawal of funds. The US economic and trade situation affects the bond market, and the central bank may adjust monetary policy, which may support short - term bond futures prices but increase the volatility of long - term bond futures prices [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: SC futures fell 0.11% at night. OPEC lowered global economic growth forecasts, and oil supply decreased slightly in March. Oil prices are expected to decline in the short term [3][12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol futures fell 0.17% at night. Coastal inventories increased slightly, and the overall device operating rate rose. It is expected to be bullish in the short term [13]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices adjusted downward. The domestic production area is gradually opening for harvesting, and the Thai production - reduction season is ending. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [14][15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins declined slightly. The market is affected by tariffs, and attention should be paid to cost, demand, and oil prices [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures declined. Glass inventory is slowly decreasing, and soda ash has a weak supply - demand situation [17]. - **PTA**: PTA futures prices are weak due to reduced textile orders and insufficient cost support [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol futures face pressure due to high - level production, rising inventory, and limited downstream demand improvement [19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices continued to rise. The trade war has increased market uncertainty, and gold is in a strong upward trend [20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell slightly at night. Uncertainty in US tariff policies and stable domestic demand may lead to wide - range fluctuations in copper prices [22]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell at night. Uncertain US tariff policies and expected improvement in supply may cause wide - range fluctuations [23]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum futures fell 0.31%. Although the impact of tariffs has eased, supply is still sufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel futures rose 0.97%. Uncertainty in nickel ore supply and mixed factors may lead to short - term fluctuations [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has decreased slightly, demand has increased, and inventory has increased. If production is not reduced, lithium prices may fall further [26]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are weak due to supply expectations, but iron - water production may increase, and demand still has support. It may show a weak trend after a short - term rebound [27][28]. - **Steel**: Steel is not directly affected by tariffs, but indirect impacts may suppress the market. The future trend depends on production and demand [29]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal futures prices fluctuated. Coke prices increased, and downstream demand may support the valuation of coking coal and coke [30]. - **Ferroalloys**: Ferroalloy futures prices declined. Supply reduction and demand recovery may affect the market, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion [31]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and palm oil rose at night, while rapeseed oil was weak. Malaysian palm oil inventory increased, and the report had a neutral impact. Oil prices may boost the oils and fats sector [32]. - **Protein Meals**: Bean and rapeseed meal futures were weak. US soybean import costs may rise, and far - month bean meal prices may be supported [33][34]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: EC futures weakened. The traditional peak season is postponed and limited, and the market may continue to fluctuate at a low level [3][35].

| 五、宏观信息 | 海关总署召开进出口企业、行业协会商会座谈会。会上，进出口企业和行业协会商会负责人介绍了企业、行业生产运行和稳订单拓市场情况，并提出政策措施 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 建议。大家一致表示，坚决拥护和支持国家对美反制措施，有决心、有信心战胜困难、应对冲击，动态调整经营策略，化挑战为机遇，实现更大更好发展。 | 在人工智能领域，杭州又有大动作。杭州市发布建设人工智能产业发展意见稿，其中提出，到2025年，全市培育形成具有国际一流水平的基础大模型2个，具 | | | | 有行业重大影响力的行业应用大模型25个以上；创建人工智能概念验证中心3家，培育人工智能高新技术企业50家以上；全市投向人工智能的产业基金组建规 | 模突破1000亿元。此外还提出，将人工智能重点企业纳入上市重点培育名单，组织开展上市专题培训。 | | | | 中证报头版刊文称，中长期资金是资本市场重要的专业投资力量，也是维护市场平稳健康运行的"压舱石"和"稳定器"。专家表示，一段时间以来，聚焦打 | 通卡点堵点、推动"长钱长投"，资本市场改革着重从优化"长钱"入市条件、树牢理性投资理念、 ...

| | 20250416申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | | | | | 铝： 短期建议观望 | | | | 镍： 可能短期震荡运行 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价小幅收低，美国关税政策前景不明，观望情绪抬升。目前精矿 加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来看，国 | | | | 内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资高增长，家电产量延续增长， | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升有望巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩 | 幅波动 | | | 窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税后期进展，以及美元、人民币汇 | | | | 率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低，美国关税政策前景不明，观望情绪抬升。近期精矿加工 | | | | 费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增 | | | 锌 | 长，家电表现良好，地产数据降幅缩窄。市场预期今年精矿供应明显改善 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The European container shipping line (EC) weakened during intraday trading, with the 06 contract closing at 1600.1 points, a decline of 7.72%. After the fermentation of the global trade demand recession expectation under the influence of Trump's tariff policy, the expected node of the traditional seasonal peak season for the European line has been postponed, and the upside space is limited. Maersk's cabin opening in the first week of May continued with a quote of $1800 per 40 - foot container, the same as the end - of - April quote, and it is less likely to see a peak - season inflection point in early May. The market is skeptical about whether there will be a peak season in June. After an emotional recovery, the 06 contract has weakened continuously. Currently, the export of goods on the US line has dropped sharply, and some shipping capacity may be redeployed to the European line, exacerbating the oversupply situation on the European line. Since the festival stocking season on the European line has not started yet, the EC may continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' regulation of shipping capacity and the progress of price increases by shipping companies in May. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - **EC2504**: The latest成交价 is 1439.3 points, with a decline of 2.94%. The trading volume is 251, and the open interest on a single - side basis is 1216. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 129. [1] - **EC2506**: The latest成交价 is 1600.1 points, with a decline of 7.72%. The trading volume is 55474, and the open interest on a single - side basis is 35437. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 1239. [1] - **EC2508**: The latest成交价 is 1695 points, with a decline of 2.69%. The trading volume is 19883, and the open interest on a single - side basis is 30439. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 656. [1] - **EC2510**: The latest成交价 is 1305.8 points, with a decline of 0.14%. The trading volume is 10037, and the open interest on a single - side basis is 16064. [1] - **EC2512**: The latest成交价 is 1488 points, with a decline of 1.05%. The trading volume is 1462, and the open interest on a single - side basis is 3829. [1] - **EC2602**: The latest成交价 is 1314.4 points, with a decline of 1.08%. The trading volume is 712, and the open interest on a single - side basis is 2667. [1] - **Total**: The total trading volume is 87819, and the total open interest on a single - side basis is 89652. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 2024. [1] Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - **Weekly Spot Index**: The SCFIS is 1402.35 points, a decline of 1.4%; the SCFI is $1356 per TEU, an increase of 1.5%. [1] - **Daily Spot Freight Rates**: The TCI (20GP) is $1591 per TEU, a decline of 3.2%; the TCI (40GP) is $2649 per FEU, a decline of 2.1%. [1] - **Basis Spread**: The previous trading day's basis spread was - 197.75 points, with a change of 96.9 points compared to the day before. [1] Spot Market Data - Shipping Capacity and Related Information - **Shipping Capacity**: The shipping capacity on the Asia - Europe route is 491601 TEU, with no change. The idle shipping capacity ratio for global container ships is 2.0%, 1.3% for ships over 17000 TEU, 0.2% for ships between 12000 - 16999 TEU, and 2.4% for ships between 8000 - 11999 TEU. [4] - **Average Speed**: The average speed of container ships is 14.01 knots, 15.65 knots for ships over 17000 TEU, and 15.41 knots for ships between 12000 - 16999 TEU. [4] - **Shipping Capacity at Ports**: The shipping capacity at Rotterdam Port is 24.59 million TEU, at Hamburg Port is 9.87 million TEU, and at Singapore Port is 34.75 million TEU. [4] - **Route - Bypassing Situation**: The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden is 7, the north - bound traffic volume through the Suez Canal is 4, and the south - bound traffic volume through the Suez Canal is 3. [4] - **Time - Charter Rates**: The 6 - 12 - month time - charter rate is $106000 per day for 9000 - TEU ships, $73500 per day for 6500 - TEU ships, and $33750 per day for 2500 - TEU ships. [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market is currently facing weak terminal demand, with no clear improvement in fundamentals. Although the steel mills' profits have recovered and production has increased, the sustainability of real steel demand needs careful observation. The market is expected to be weak after a short - term shock - driven upward movement. The iron ore market has support from iron ore demand due to the potential for further increase in molten iron production and good steel mill profits. However, there is a large medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure, and it is expected to be weak after a short - term rebound. The coking coal and coke market has the potential for upward valuation repair supported by the recovery of downstream demand, and attention should be paid to the digestion of upstream inventory. The ferroalloy market may have stronger support at the bottom driven by the recovery of demand, and attention should be paid to the digestion of market inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: For example, the previous day's closing price of coke 01 contract was 1622, down 7 from the day before, with a decline of 0.4%; the previous day's closing price of iron ore 05 contract was 766, up 7 from the day before, with an increase of 0.9%. There were also changes in price ratios and spreads of different contracts, such as the coke 1 - 5 spread changing from 80 to 55 [2]. - **Spot Market and Basis**: In the coke spot market, the spot price at Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port remained at 1340; in the iron ore spot market, the price of PBF (Fe61.5%) increased from 842 to 849. The basis of different varieties also changed to varying degrees [2]. 3.2 Profit - **Profit Changes**: Coke simulation profit decreased from 63 to - 385; steel simulation profit increased from - 53 to - 49; the profit of steel mills on the futures market decreased from - 48 to - 71; the profit of coking plants on the futures market increased from 312 to 327 [3]. 3.3 Macro News - On April 15, Premier Li Qiang emphasized during a research trip in Beijing to calmly respond to difficulties and challenges brought by external shocks, promote consumption and expand domestic demand with greater efforts, and further release the vitality and potential of China's super - large - scale market [3]. 3.4 Industry Information - From April 7 - 13, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 131.99 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 18.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.6%; the total transaction area of second - hand housing was 265.87 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 24.5% [3]. - For steel, the tariff exemption has no direct impact, and the indirect export impact has not been realized. Terminal demand is weak, and the real steel demand needs careful observation. For iron ore, although the supply is expected to change, the demand is supported by the increase in molten iron production. For coking coal and coke, there is potential for upward valuation repair. For ferroalloys, the cost support has weakened, and attention should be paid to the guidance of steel procurement and the digestion of inventory [3].