1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Indonesia has canceled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year and will maintain the current 40% palm oil - based fuel and 60% diesel blending ratio, which has raised concerns about palm oil demand prospects. Short - term, the fundamentals of oils and fats have not changed significantly, and they are expected to fluctuate mainly [3]. - The US Department of Agriculture has raised the forecast of US soybean production for the 2025/26 season and lowered the forecast of soybean exports. The domestic high inventory of soybean meal and the expected high yield of South American soybeans will continue to put pressure on prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties are as follows: soybean oil 8000, palm oil 8748, etc. The price changes are 14 for soybean oil, - 30 for palm oil, etc., with corresponding percentage changes of 0.18% for soybean oil, - 0.34% for palm oil, etc. [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads and ratios of domestic futures, such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, etc., have different values compared to the previous values, with significant changes in some spreads and ratios [2]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, etc. are 3969 for BMD palm oil, 1042.50 for CBOT soybeans, etc. The price changes are - 1.0 for BMD palm oil, 3.5 for CBOT soybeans, etc., with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.03% for BMD palm oil, 0.34% for CBOT soybeans, etc. [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of domestic products such as Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, etc. are 8520 for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, 8570 for Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, etc. The percentage changes are 0.12% for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, 0.23% for Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, etc. [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis and spreads of domestic products have different values compared to the previous values, such as the spot basis of 520 for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil remaining at - 150 [2]. Import and Crushing Profits - The current import and crushing profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. are - 251 for near - month Malaysian palm oil, - 146 for near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc., showing different trends compared to the previous values [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, etc. are 29,147 for soybean oil, 1,248 for palm oil, etc. Some varieties remain unchanged compared to the previous values, while the warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil have decreased from 2,622 to 2,222 [2].

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.334 | 102.360 | 105.655 | 105.645 | 107.930 | 107.865 | 111.27 | 111.38 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.330 | 102.356 | 105.625 | 105.605 | 107.850 | 107.775 | 111.35 | 111.48 | | | 涨跌 | 0.004 | 0.004 | 0.030 | 0.040 | 0.080 | 0.090 | -0.080 | -0.100 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.00% | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Since 2026, the continuous improvement of the stock market is the result of the combined effects of the technology cycle resonance, policy dividend release, economic recovery, and the return of overseas funds. The market has gradually shifted from being dominated by valuation expansion to a new stage driven by earnings. It is expected that in 2026, supply - side reforms will continue, pushing up commodity prices and driving up resource - based stocks. With the continuous release of policy effects, the further strengthening of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas funds allocating Chinese assets, the stock market is expected to continue its oscillating upward trend [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4737.60, 4740.20, 4740.00, and 4696.80 respectively, with price drops of - 30.20, - 19.60, - 14.00, and - 12.80 and declines of - 0.63%, - 0.41%, - 0.29%, and - 0.27%. The trading volumes were 43598.00, 19748.00, 119874.00, and 25085.00 respectively, and the open interest changes were - 8395.00, 6698.00, 11113.00, and 3003.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 3109.00, 3108.20, 3114.00, and 3112.00 respectively, with price drops of - 24.80, - 24.60, - 19.60, and - 13.40 and declines of - 0.79%, - 0.79%, - 0.63%, and - 0.43%. The trading volumes were 15452.00, 7165.00, 48861.00, and 9566.00 respectively, and the open interest changes were - 2580.00, 2392.00, 2763.00, and 1422.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 8221.00, 8218.60, 8197.80, and 8038.80 respectively, with price increases of 52.60, 71.40, 76.60, and 71.20 and increases of 0.64%, 0.88%, 0.94%, and 0.89%. The trading volumes were 47432.00, 29317.00, 173512.00, and 43196.00 respectively, and the open interest changes were - 5764.00, 9646.00, 9403.00, and 4567.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 8242.00, 8215.00, 8156.00, and 7965.00 respectively, with price increases of 6.20, 19.20, 5.20, and 19.20 and increases of 0.08%, 0.23%, 0.06%, and 0.24%. The trading volumes were 65555.00, 35068.00, 225371.00, and 52601.00 respectively, and the open interest changes were - 6665.00, 12466.00, 4547.00, and 3038.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were 2.60, - 0.80, - 2.40, and - 27.00 respectively, compared with previous values of - 3.20, - 4.20, - 22.20, and - 33.40 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The previous value of the CSI 300 index was 4741.93, with a trading volume of 364.95 billion lots and a total trading value of 8913.34 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 4761.03, and the decline was - 0.40% [1] - **SSE 50 Index**: The previous value of the SSE 50 index was 3112.07, with a trading volume of 71.96 billion lots and a total trading value of 2160.78 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 3132.93, and the decline was - 0.67% [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The previous value of the CSI 500 index was 8227.70, with a trading volume of 422.77 billion lots and a total trading value of 8159.59 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 8143.28, and the increase was 1.04% [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The previous value of the CSI 1000 index was 8257.17, with a trading volume of 489.80 billion lots and a total trading value of 8842.81 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 8203.13, and the increase was 0.66% [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries had different trends. For example, the energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption industries had declines of - 0.72%, 0.12%, - 0.83%, and - 0.75% respectively; the main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology industries had declines of - 0.71%, - 0.91%, - 1.59%, and an increase of 1.46% respectively; the telecommunications business and public utilities industries had an increase of 0.60% and a decline of - 1.41% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis differences between IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, far - quarter) and the CSI 300 index were - 4.33, - 1.73, - 1.93, and - 45.13 respectively, compared with previous two - day values of 5.17, 1.97, - 2.43, and - 46.03 [1] - The basis differences between IH contracts and the SSE 50 index were - 3.07, - 3.87, 1.93, and - 0.07 respectively, compared with previous two - day values of 3.67, - 0.53, 4.67, and - 4.33 [1] - The basis differences between IC contracts and the CSI 500 index were - 6.70, - 9.10, - 29.90, and - 188.90 respectively, compared with previous two - day values of 29.52, 7.32, - 12.08, and - 158.08 [1] - The basis differences between IM contracts and the CSI 1000 index were - 15.17, - 42.17, - 101.17, and - 292.17 respectively, compared with previous two - day values of 30.67, - 2.73, - 42.73, and - 242.73 [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4126.09, 14248.60, 8746.68, and 3349.14 respectively, with changes of - 0.31%, 0.56%, 0.18%, and 0.82% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26999.81, 54341.23, 6926.60, and 25286.24 respectively, with changes of 0.56%, 1.48%, - 0.53%, and - 0.53% [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The CSRC approved the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges to adjust the margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100% for new margin trading contracts, aiming to reduce leverage and protect investors' rights and promote market stability [2] - The policy of tax refund for home - swapping residents was extended until the end of 2027. Taxpayers who sell their self - owned housing and repurchase a new one within one year can get a tax refund [2] - In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. In December, imports and exports were 4.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. China's rare - earth exports in December increased by 32% year - on - year to 4392 tons, with annual exports reaching 62585 tons [2] - The central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of 6 - month repurchase operations on January 15, with an additional 300 billion yuan compared to the maturing amount, marking the fifth consecutive month of increased operations [2] - The Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Taxation Administration issued a notice on the tax policy for goods import and export in the Shenzhen Park of the Hetao Shenzhen - Hong Kong Science and Technology Innovation Cooperation Zone, effective from February 10, 2026 [2] 6. Industry Information - Three departments regulated the competition order in the new - energy vehicle industry, aiming to resist price wars and build a fair market. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) released data showing that in 2025, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 34 million units, with new - energy vehicle production and sales exceeding 16 million units, accounting for over 50% of new - car sales. The CAAM expects that in 2026, total automobile sales will reach 34.75 million units, a 1% increase, and new - energy vehicle sales will reach 19 million units, a 15.2% increase. The inter - ministerial meeting emphasized enhancing industrial chain autonomy and promoting new - energy vehicle development [2] - The results of the sixth batch of high - value medical consumables procurement were announced, covering 12 types of medical consumables in two categories, with 202 enterprises and 440 products selected. Urological calculi surgery - related consumables were included in the procurement for the first time, and the selected results are expected to be implemented around May [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - IH, IF, IC, IM stock indices, rubber, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, lithium carbonate, cotton, and corn are rated as bullish; crude oil, methanol, apple, and container shipping to Europe are rated as bearish [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The US inflation pressure has eased, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strengthened. The global synchronous interest - rate cut cycle provides a favorable environment for the rise of precious metals. The long - term upward trend of gold continues, and the price centers of silver and platinum are expected to rise. The stock market is expected to continue the upward trend in shock due to factors such as technology cycle resonance, policy dividends, economic recovery, and overseas capital inflow. The short - term trend of oils and fats is mainly volatile. The prices of some commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitics, and policies [2][4][5][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main News - **International News**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that the overall economic activity in eight of the 12 Fed districts increased slightly to moderately. Most banks reported a small and moderate increase in consumer spending during the holiday shopping season [8] - **Domestic News**: The policy of tax refund for residents' housing replacement has been extended until the end of 2027. Taxpayers who sell their self - owned housing and repurchase a housing within one year can get a tax refund [9] - **Industry News**: The minimum margin ratio for investors' margin trading has been raised from 80% to 100% [10] 3.2 Outer - market Daily Earnings - The S&P 500 fell 0.53% to 6,926.60 points; the European STOXX 50 rose 0.06% to 5,116.59 points; the FTSE China A50 futures fell 0.68% to 15,295.00 points. The dollar index fell 0.11% to 99.08 points. ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.11% to $65.39 per barrel. London gold rose 0.88% to $4,626.10 per ounce, and London silver rose 7.00% to $93.00 per ounce [12] 3.3 Morning Comments on Main Varieties 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Indices**: The US stock indices fell, and the previous trading day's stock indices rose and then fell. The computer sector led the rise, and the banking sector led the fall. The stock market is expected to continue the upward trend in shock [13] - **Treasury Bonds**: The prices of Treasury bond futures have stabilized. The central bank's open - market operation has a net reverse - repurchase injection, and the market risk preference has declined. The expectation of loose policies at the beginning of the year is strong [14][15] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC rose 1.8% at night. There are geopolitical factors affecting the oil market, and some OPEC countries have compensation plans for overproduction [16] - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 1.14% at night. The supply - demand pattern is stable, and the supply of Iranian sources is the main trading logic [17] - **Natural Rubber**: The price trend is expected to be slightly stronger in shock. The domestic production area has stopped cutting, and the demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production [18] - **Polyolefins**: The futures of polyolefins continue the rebound trend, supported by supply improvement expectations and rising international oil prices [19] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass futures are in low - level consolidation, and the soda ash futures closed slightly up. The market focuses on the recovery of the real - estate industry chain and the supply - side contraction [21] 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals fluctuated at a high level at night. The long - term upward trend of gold continues, and the price centers of silver and platinum are expected to rise [22] - **Copper**: The copper price fell 0.44% at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the short - term price is more affected by market sentiment [23] - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose 1.31% at night. The supply of concentrates is temporarily tight, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [24] - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fell 0.32% at night. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but the long - term low inventory and supply constraints provide support [25] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract fluctuated. The market is concerned, and it is recommended to participate cautiously. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [26][27] 3.3.4 Black Series - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts fluctuated at night. The short - term trend is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to supply, iron - water production, and downstream restocking [28] - **Steel**: The steel price rose slightly at night. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the macro effect accounts for a large proportion [29] - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore price fluctuated. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger in shock, and steel mills will maintain on - demand procurement [30] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The soybean meal rose and the rapeseed meal fell at night. The Brazilian soybean harvest is expected to be good, and the US soybean production is expected to increase, which will put pressure on prices [31][32] - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats were weak at night. The MPOB report had a neutral impact, and the Indonesian biodiesel policy has affected market sentiment. The short - term trend is mainly volatile [33] - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar main contract fluctuated. The international and domestic supply pressures are different, and the short - term price is expected to run within a range [34] - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract fluctuated. The downstream demand has support, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile [35] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC contract rose 0.21%. The pre - holiday freight rate is expected to enter a downward channel, but the 04 contract may enter a shock pattern due to the game between freight - rate cuts and export rush expectations [36]

| 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨1.03%。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽 环比回落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长； 家电产量负增长；地产持续疲弱。矿供应扰动导致全球铜供求预期转向缺口，短期铜价更 | | | 多受市场情绪影响。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 锌 | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨0.86%。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延续增长 。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增长；家电产 | | | 量负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显，但需要关注目前有色整体市场情绪。 | | | 建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 品种 | 国内前日期货 收盘价 | 国内基差 | 前日LME3月 期收盘价 | LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） | LME库存 | LME库存日 度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/吨） | （元/吨） | (美元/吨） | （ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The continuous improvement of the stock market since 2026 is the result of the joint action of four factors: the resonance of the technology cycle, the release of policy dividends, the improvement of economic recovery, and the return of overseas funds. Currently, the market has gradually shifted from being dominated by valuation expansion to a new stage driven by earnings. It is expected that in 2026, supply - side reform will continue, pushing up the prices of commodities and driving up the prices of resource - based stocks. Under the strategic guidance of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with the continuous release of various policy effects, the further enhancement of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas funds' allocation of Chinese assets, the stock market is expected to continue its volatile upward trend [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and alternate quarter) were 4766.20, 4763.00, 4758.60, and 4715.00 respectively, with declines of - 26.80, - 22.20, - 20.80, and - 21.00 and declines of - 0.56, - 0.46, - 0.44, and - 0.44. The trading volumes were 39504.00, 11881.00, 97329.00, and 24015.00, and the open interests were 43353.00, 18273.00, 184613.00, and 61171.00, with changes in open interests of - 4859.00, 4351.00, 1785.00, and 4163.00 [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and alternate quarter) were 3136.60, 3132.40, 3137.60, and 3128.60 respectively, with declines of - 6.60, - 9.40, - 4.60, and - 6.80 and declines of - 0.21, - 0.30, - 0.15, and - 0.22. The trading volumes were 14480.00, 4204.00, 41076.00, and 7618.00, and the open interests were 14532.00, 5098.00, 57216.00, and 18012.00, with changes in open interests of - 1655.00, 1612.00, 2024.00, and 1155.00 [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and alternate quarter) were 8172.80, 8150.60, 8131.20, and 7985.20 respectively, with declines of - 104.60, - 99.00, - 98.80, and - 89.40 and declines of - 1.26, - 1.20, - 1.20, and - 1.11. The trading volumes were 43150.00, 15560.00, 120900.00, and 32704.00, and the open interests were 40507.00, 31014.00, 171420.00, and 74145.00, with changes in open interests of - 5529.00, 4930.00, 3885.00, and 2850.00 [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and alternate quarter) were 8233.80, 8200.40, 8160.40, and 7960.40 respectively, with declines of - 161.00, - 149.60, - 145.80, and - 135.00 and declines of - 1.92, - 1.79, - 1.76, and - 1.67. The trading volumes were 60818.00, 21828.00, 178731.00, and 43725.00, and the open interests were 54431.00, 39945.00, 207812.00, and 99430.00, with changes in open interests of - 11425.00, 5127.00, - 632.00, and 5511.00 [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM (next month - current month) were - 3.20, - 4.20, - 22.20, and - 33.40 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 8.80, - 2.40, - 15.60, and - 40.80 [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4761.03, 3132.93, 8143.28, and 8203.13 respectively, with declines of - 0.60, - 0.34, - 1.28, and - 1.84. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 301.45, 63.16, 364.13, and 454.44, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 8010.55, 1888.53, 7352.19, and 8246.52 [1]. - **Industry Indexes**: Among the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 industry indexes, the energy, raw materials, main consumption, and pharmaceutical sectors had increases of 0.76%, 1.40%, - 0.94%, and 1.65% respectively, while the industrial, optional consumption, real - estate finance, and information technology sectors had declines of - 0.70%, - 1.36%, 0.37%, and - 2.58% respectively [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts and Shanghai - Shenzhen 300**: The previous values of the basis between IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and alternate quarter) and the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index were 5.17, 1.97, - 2.43, and - 46.03 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 0.52, - 9.32, - 15.92, and - 54.72 [1]. - **IH Contracts and Shanghai 50**: The previous values of the basis between IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and alternate quarter) and the Shanghai 50 index were 3.67, - 0.53, 4.67, and - 4.33 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 1.94, - 4.34, - 3.54, and - 10.34 [1]. - **IC Contracts and CSI 500**: The previous values of the basis between IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and alternate quarter) and the CSI 500 index were 29.52, 7.32, - 12.08, and - 158.08 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of 24.67, 9.07, - 12.53, and - 165.73 [1]. - **IM Contracts and CSI 1000**: The previous values of the basis between IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and alternate quarter) and the CSI 1000 index were 30.67, - 2.73, - 42.73, and - 242.73 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of 38.19, - 2.61, - 45.61, and - 252.21 [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4138.76, 14169.40, 8730.75, and 3321.89 respectively, with declines of - 0.64%, - 1.37%, - 0.91%, and - 1.96% [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous values of the DAX index, Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, and S&P index had increases of 0.90%, 3.10%, - 0.19%, and 0.06% respectively [1]. 3.5 Macro Information - **US - Iran Tension**: US President Trump cancelled all talks with Iranian officials, and the US State Department asked US citizens to leave Iran immediately. The US Department of Defense officials said Trump had been briefed on military and covert operation options for the Iranian situation, but the White House said diplomacy was the "preferred" option [2]. - **Fed Chairman Issue**: The criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell continued to ferment. Many former US financial officials criticized the Trump administration's investigation, and global central bank governors were drafting a statement to support Powell. Trump said Powell exceeded the budget by billions and would announce the next Fed chairman in the coming weeks [2]. - **Trade Threat**: Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on countries with business with Iran. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said China would firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. Regarding the G7 finance ministers' agreement to reduce rare - earth imports from China, the spokesperson said China's stance on maintaining the stability and security of the global supply chain of key minerals remained unchanged [2]. - **Domestic Policies**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a symposium on manufacturing enterprises, emphasizing active participation in industry rule - making and self - discipline. Eight departments jointly introduced 14 measures to promote the high - quality development of elderly care services and the silver economy. By the end of 2024, the elderly population over 60 in China reached 310 million, and it is expected to exceed 400 million by 2035, with the silver economy scale expected to exceed 30 trillion yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - **Industrial Internet**: In 2025, the core industrial scale of China's industrial Internet is expected to exceed 1.6 trillion yuan, driving an increase of about 2.5 trillion yuan in industrial added value. The average operating cost of 100 5G factories with global leading levels will be reduced by 19%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed the development of industrial Internet platforms, aiming to have over 450 influential platforms, more than 120 million connected industrial devices, and a platform penetration rate of over 55% by 2028 [2]. - **Solar - Grade Polysilicon**: Starting from January 14, anti - dumping duties will continue to be imposed on imported solar - grade polysilicon from the US and South Korea for a period of 5 years [2]. - **Medical Supplies**: The latest batch of national high - value medical supplies procurement is scheduled to open bids on January 14, including 12 types of medical supplies in two categories: drug - coated balloons and urological interventions, with 496 products from 227 enterprises bidding [2].

| | 1、央行公告称，1月13日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了3586亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量3586 | | --- | --- | | | 亿元，中标量3586亿元。Wind数据显示，当日162亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放3424亿元。 | | | 2、国家发改委副主任周海兵表示，今年国家发改委将牵头制定循环经济发展"十五五"规划，明确重点领域循环经济 | | | 发展目标任务，部署传统再生资源、稀贵金属，"新三样"固体废物等回收利用的重点举措，完善保障体系，进一步 | | | 提高资源利用效率，强化资源安全保障，支撑绿色低碳转型，推动循环经济高质量发展取得新成效。 3、工信部印发《推动工业互联网平台高质量发展行动方案（2026—2028年）》，到2028年，工业互联网平台高质量发 | | | 展取得积极成效，"专业型+行业型+协作型"多层次平台体系持续壮大，具有一定影响力的平台超450家；平台的要素 | | | 资源连接能力大幅增强，重点平台的数据增值、模型沉淀和人工智能开发应用能力显著提升，工业设备连接数突破1.2 | | 宏观 消息 | 亿台（套）；平台普及率达到5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The implementation of Indonesia's "B50" biodiesel mandatory blending policy depends on the prices of crude oil and crude palm oil [3] - Malaysia's 2026 palm oil production is expected to be between 19.5 and 19.8 million tons, down from 20.28 million tons in 2025, and the inventory is expected to be 2 million tons, down from 3.05 million tons in 2025 [3] - The night - session of protein meal futures closed down. Brazil's soybean harvest rate is increasing, and the US Department of Agriculture has adjusted the production and export forecasts of US soybeans, with a neutral - to - bearish impact on the market. High domestic soybean meal inventory and the expected high yield of South American soybeans will continue to pressure prices [3] - The night - session of oil futures was weak. The MPOB report had a neutral impact on the market. After the release of the Malaysian palm oil report, the negative factors were exhausted. The improvement in fundamentals is expected to drive the oil sector to fluctuate strongly in the short term [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties are given, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the previous day's closing price of soybean oil futures was 7986, with a decline of 8 and a decline rate of - 0.10% [2] - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads and ratios of different contracts are presented, such as the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil futures being - 364, and the M/RM09 ratio of protein meal futures being 1.21 [2] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of international futures such as BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans are provided. For example, the previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 3970, with no change and a change rate of 0.00% [2] Domestic Spot Market - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices and their percentage changes of various oils and meals in different regions are given. For example, the current spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8510, with a decline rate of - 0.12% [2] - **Spot Basis and Spreads**: The spot basis and spreads between different products are presented. For example, the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 524, and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 150 [2] Import and Crushing Profit - The current and previous values of import and crushing profits for different imported products such as Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans are provided. For example, the current import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 261, compared with - 232 previously [2] Warehouse Receipts - The current and previous values of warehouse receipts for different products such as soybean oil, palm oil are given. For example, the current number of soybean oil warehouse receipts is 29,147, compared with 29,197 previously [2]

美国总统特朗普威胁对与伊朗有商业往来的国家征收 25%的关税。外交部发言人 毛宁回应表示，中方将坚定维护自身正当合法权益。对于七国集团财长同意加快 减少从中国进口稀土，毛宁指出，中方维护关键矿产全球产供链稳定与安全的立 场没有变化，各方都有责任这样做。美国财政部表示，美国 2025 年 12 月预算赤 字为 1450 亿美元，创当月历史新高，市场预期为 1500 亿美元，而 2024 年 12 月 的赤字为 870 亿美元。美国 2026 财年迄今赤字为 6020 亿美元，而 2025 财年同 期赤字为 7110 亿美元。2025 年 12 月海关净收入 278.9 亿美元。国内商品期市 走势分化，贵金属涨幅居前，沪银涨 5.9%。航运期货跌幅居前，集运指数（欧线） 跌 5.45%。新能源材料走势分化，多晶硅跌 4.45%；碳酸锂涨 7.44%，盘中一度涨 停，突破 17 万元/吨关口，年内累计涨幅接近 40%。 报告日期：2026 年 1 月 14 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：银价油价齐升 重点品种：贵金属、股指、原油 贵金属：贵金属冲高回落。从宏观面来看，近期公布的经济数据显示美国通胀压 力缓解，就 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of Treasury bond futures showed mixed trends, with the T2603 contract rising 0.07% and its trading volume decreasing. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates generally increased, and the yields of key - term Treasury bonds also fluctuated. The market risk preference increased, suppressing the bond market sentiment, and the prices of Treasury bond futures were generally weak under the stock - bond seesaw effect [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of TS2603, TF2603, T2603, and TL2603 increased, while those of TS2606, TF2606, T2606, and TL2606 showed different changes. The T2603 contract rose 0.07%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed, with the open interest of T2603 and TF2603 decreasing [2]. - **Cross - period Spreads**: The cross - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts changed, with some spreads widening and some narrowing [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates generally increased. SHIBOR 7 - day rate rose 1.2bp, DR007 rate rose 0.92bp, and GC007 rate rose 5.4bp [2]. - **Key - term Treasury Bond Yields in China**: The yields of key - term Treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The 10Y - term Treasury bond yield decreased 1.38bp to 1.87%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 45.72bp [2]. - **Key - term Treasury Bond Yields Overseas**: The 10Y Treasury bond yield in the US rose 1bp, that in Germany rose 0bp, and that in Japan rose 1.3bp [2]. Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On January 12th, the central bank conducted 86.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 36.1 billion yuan after 50 billion yuan of repurchases matured [3]. - **Policy Announcements**: The State Council issued the "2026 First Batch of Key Matters List for 'Efficiently Completing One Thing'", and four departments jointly released work methods for government investment funds [3]. - **International News**: The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which led to concerns about the Fed's independence and an increase in the prices of gold and silver [3]. Industry Information - **Interest Rate Changes**: On January 12th, most money market interest rates in China increased, and US Treasury bond yields also rose collectively [3]. Comment and Strategy - **Market Analysis**: The central bank's net investment, rising short - term interest rates, improved economic data, and increased market risk preference all put pressure on the bond market. Although there are expectations of loose policies at the beginning of the year, the prices of Treasury bond futures are generally weak under the stock - bond seesaw effect [3].