Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.5%, with plans to reduce $60 billion in Treasury bonds and $35 billion in MBS monthly, aligning with market expectations[2] - The dot plot indicates an expectation of 2-3 rate cuts in 2024, with a total reduction of 75 basis points anticipated[3] Economic Projections - The GDP growth forecast for 2024 was raised by 0.7 percentage points to 2.1%, with 2025 and 2026 also seeing slight upward adjustments[3] - The unemployment rate for 2024 is projected to decrease by 0.1 percentage points to 4.0%, with long-term expectations remaining at 4.1%[5] Inflation Outlook - The PCE inflation rate for 2024 is expected to remain at 2.4%, while the core PCE inflation forecast was increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%[6] Fed Chair's Commentary - Chair Powell expressed a dovish stance, emphasizing the need for more data on service price declines as a potential signal for rate cuts[6] - Despite strong economic growth, Powell highlighted the risks of inflation accelerating again due to resilient economic conditions[8] Market Expectations - The market's probability of a rate cut in June has increased, with a 90.3% chance of maintaining rates in May and a 69.4% chance of a cut in June[11] - Overall, the market anticipates a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts throughout the year[11] Gold Market Sentiment - Positive sentiment in the precious metals market is noted, driven by Fed policy expectations and increased investor risk aversion, supporting higher gold prices[15]

2024 年初的宏观经济数据分析 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 2 2024 年 3 月 20 日 研究员：万亮 邮箱：wl@swfutures.com 期货从业证书号：F03116714 交易咨询证书号：Z0019298 由于春节的原因，中国月度宏观数据基本上 1-2 月联合发布。因此，3 开始陆续 公布的宏观数据，成为判断年初经济运行节奏和政策取向的重要参考。我们梳理了 3 月以来公布的国内重要的宏观经济数据，力求增加对年初宏观经济景气度的理解。 一、制造业 PMI 强于季节性 中国 2 月官方制造业 PMI 为 49.1，环比下降 0.1 个百分点，预期及前值均为 49.2。 中国 2 月官方非制造业 PMI 为 51.4，预期 50.7，环比上升 0.7 个百分点。我国经济 总体延续扩张态势。 2 月份，由于春节假日因素影响，制造业处于传统生产淡季，制造业市场活跃度 总体有所下降；非制造业扩张步伐继续加快，表明我国企业生产经营活动总体继续扩 张。考虑到季节性因素和 1 月制造业 PMI 环比回升 0.2 个百分点，2 月制造业 PMI 显 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 3 示，宏观经济有所改善。 其中 ...