废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/12/08 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/01 | 2189 | 2262 | 2016 | 2224 | 2225 | 2089 | | 2025/12/02 | 2191 | 2263 | 2022 | 2229 | 2225 | 2089 | | 2025/12/03 | 2192 | 2264 | 2032 | 2231 | 2225 | 2090 | | 2025/12/04 | 2192 | 2264 | 2035 | 2231 | 2223 | 2092 | | 2025/12/05 | 2194 | 2263 | 2037 | 2231 | 2223 | 2093 | | 环比 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Release Date: December 8, 2025 [5] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [5] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - No core viewpoints information provided Group 4: Data Summary Basis and Spread - Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) on 12/5 was 42, with a daily change of -6 [3] - East China basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse) on 12/5 was 92, with a daily change of 4 [3] - South China basis (Foshan Warehouse) on 12/5 was -18, with a daily change of -16 [3] - 12 - 01 spread on 12/5 was -26, with a daily change of -7 [3] - 12 - 03 spread on 12/5 was -51, with a daily change of -4 [3] - 01 - 02 spread on 12/5 was -11, with a daily change of 0 [3] Futures - BU main contract (01) on 12/5 was 2948, with a daily change of -4 [3] - Trading volume on 12/5 was 253,337, with a daily change of -36,820 (-5%) [3] - Open interest on 12/5 was 428,146, with a daily change of -1,202 [3] - Lot size remained 4,690 [3] Spot - Brent crude on 12/5 was 63.3, with a daily change of 0.6 [3] - Jingbo price on 12/5 was 2940, with a daily change of -10 [3] - Hongrun price on 12/5 was 2910, with a daily change of -10 [3] - Zhenjiang Warehouse price on 12/5 was 3040, with no daily change [3] - Foshan Warehouse price on 12/5 was 2930, with a daily change of -20 [3] Profit - Asphalt - Ma Rui profit on 12/5 was 107, with a daily change of -36 [3] - Ma Rui - type refinery comprehensive profit on 12/5 was 719, with a daily change of -29 [3]

波动率数据日报 永安期货期权总部 隐含波动率分位数排名 历史波动率分位数排名 0. 72 更新时间: 2025/12/5 、隐含波动率指数、历史波动率及其价差走势图 1、金融期权隐含波动率指数反映截止上一交易日的30日隐波走势,商品期权隐含波动 率指数通过主力月平值期权上下两档隐波加权所得,反映主力合约的隐波变化趋势。2 隐波指数与历史波动率的差值,差值越大反映隐波相对历史波动率越高,差值越小代 表隐波相对历史波动率越低。 70 300股指 -- 300股指 IV-HV差 - 50ETF - 50ETF IV-HV美 ZD 20 -- 1000股指 IV-HV差 500ETF - 500ETF -- 1000股指 IV-HV美 ZID 10 20 10 日报 IV-HV美 IV-HV美 tte SISTING 60 40 豆粕 IV-HV差 塑和 IV-HV差 玉米 王米 30 50 20 20 30 40 10 10 0 10 10 IC ·40 40 0 30 10 30 40 IV-HV美 白糖 白糖 30 25 IV-HV差 棉花 棉花 25 20 20 20 10 15 5 0 10 10 TO 2 ...

s 加安期货 沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/5 | | 指标 | 11/4 | 11/28 | 12/2 | 12/3 | 12/4 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基差&月差 | 山东基差(+80)(弘润) | 17 | 44 | 114 | 78 | 48 | -30 | 4 | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 157 | 54 | 134 | 88 | 88 | 0 | 34 | | | 华南基差(佛山库) | 107 | -16 | 64 | 18 | -2 | -20 | 14 | | | 12-01 | -4 | -18 | -25 | -25 | -19 | 6 | -1 | | | 12-03 | -35 | -48 | -53 | -52 | -47 | 5 | | | | 01-02 | -15 | -7 | -5 | -9 | -11 | -2 | -4 | | :11:1 | BU主力合约(01) | 3193 | 2996 | 2916 | 2952 | ...

ગઢ | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 EC2512 | | 昨日收篇价 1649.1 | 涨 -0.24% | 基差 -165.5 | 昨日成交量 270 | | 昨日持命量 3731 | 持仓变动 -82 | | | EC2602 | | 1585.0 | 2.92% | -101.4 | 27304 | | 34222 | -786 | | | EC2604 | | 1090.1 | 0.65% | 393.6 | 2881 | | 19129 | 132 | | | EC2606 | | 1255.1 | 0.05% | 228.6 | 178 | | 2141 | -26 | | 期货 | EC2608 | | 1385.6 | 0.40% | 98.1 | 125 | | 1549 | -28 | | | EC2610 | | 1040.2 | -0.19% | 443.5 | 297 | | 3961 | 72 ...

Group 1: Futures Contract Information - EC2512 had a yesterday's closing price of 1649.1 with a decline of 0.27%, a basis of -165.5, a trading volume of 270, an open interest of 3731, and an open interest change of -82 [2] - EC2602 had a price of 1585.0 with an increase of 2.92%, a basis of -101.4, a trading volume of 27304, an open interest of 34222, and an open interest change of -786 [2] - EC2604 had a price of 1090.1 with an increase of 0.65%, a basis of 393.6, a trading volume of 2881, an open interest of 19129, and an open interest change of 132 [2] - EC2606 had a price of 1255.1 with an increase of 0.05%, a basis of 228.6, a trading volume of 178, an open interest of 2141, and an open interest change of -26 [2] - EC2608 had a price of 1385.6 with an increase of 0.40%, a basis of 98.1, a trading volume of 125, an open interest of 1549, and an open interest change of -28 [2] - EC2610 had a price of 1040.2 with a decline of 0.19%, a basis of 443.5, a trading volume of 297, an open interest of 3961, and an open interest change of 72 [2] Group 2: Spread Information - The EC2512 - 2504 spread was 559.0, compared to 561.5 the day before yesterday with a change of -11.4 [2] - The EC2512 - 2602 spread was 64.1, compared to 113.4 the day before yesterday with a change of -49.3 [2] - The EC2502 - 2604 spread was 401, compared to 457.0 the day before yesterday with a change of 37.9 [2] Group 3: Spot Index Information - The SCHIS index on 2025/12/1 was 1483.65, down 9.50% from the previous period [2] - The SCFI (European line) on 2025/11/28 was 1404 dollars/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period [2] - The CCFI (European line) on 2025/11/28 was 1449.34 points, up 1.14% from the previous period [2] - The NCFI on 2025/11/28 was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period [2] Group 4: Market Analysis and Outlook - The December contract is moving towards the delivery logic, with P1 around 1550 points. P2 and P3 are对标 to the second - half of December cabin positions, and the price is expected to be stable with a slight increase [3] - The 02 contract has a neutral valuation, follows the spot price in the short - term, and there is a game for the peak - season height. Although high capacity limits the upside, there is no overly pessimistic expectation due to the late Spring Festival, strong cargo volume on the European line this year, and the 02 contract covering the freight rates from the second - half of January to the first ten days of February [3] - The 04 contract has limited short - term downside space, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities when it follows the near - month contracts to rise [3] Group 5: Recent Spot Market Situation - The price increase announcement in the first half of December failed. In Week 49, the average was 2360 dollars, equivalent to 1650 points on the futures market [4] - In Week 50, MSK's cabin opening price dropped to 2200 dollars, and other shipping companies followed suit. The current central price is 2270 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the futures market [4] - On Monday, YML reduced the price of two ships in Week 50 by 150 to 1750 dollars, while MSC increased it by 200 to 2600 dollars [4] - It is expected that shipping companies will announce price increases for January cabins in early December. MSK's opening price for Week 51 is 2400 dollars, a 200 - dollar increase from the previous period, equivalent to 1660 points on the futures market [4] - On Thursday, MSK issued a price - increase notice for January European lines, with the price rising to 3500 dollars [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the CESCO copper conference shows that institutions and the industry generally support buying on dips. The copper price is expected to move up, ranging between $10,500 and $11,300, driven by strong domestic demand and overseas demand for power grids and computing. However, the potential outflow of North American copper inventories due to the disappearance of US tariffs is a risk factor [1]. - For aluminum, the Shanghai aluminum futures price has stabilized and rebounded, with significant inventory reduction. It may fluctuate in the short - term. Supply and demand are expected to be loose in early 2026 and then tighten [1]. - For zinc, the price has fluctuated this week. The supply side faces challenges with declining TC and potential production cuts in December. The demand side is weak both at home and abroad. The export window is open, and the price may not fall deeply. It's advisable to wait and see for single - side trading, look for reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider positive arbitrage for the 01 - 03 spread [2]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventories are rising. With ongoing policy support in Indonesia, short - selling opportunities can be monitored [3]. - For stainless steel, the supply has increased slightly, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high. Given the potential policy support in Indonesia, short - selling opportunities are worth attention [3]. - For lead, the price has declined this week, with improved sales. The supply is abundant, and demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,200. It's advisable to observe the increase in warehouse receipts and the price support of waste batteries [5]. - For tin, the price has increased this week. The supply side has limited recovery potential with many disturbances, and demand is mainly rigid. In the short - term, it's advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, consider buying near the cost line [8]. - For industrial silicon, the production in Q4 is expected to be balanced with a slight surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price will likely oscillate at the cycle bottom based on seasonal marginal costs [9]. - For lithium carbonate, the market has been volatile due to multiple factors. In the short - term, supply and demand are both strong, but the upward price movement depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the spot premium of Shanghai copper rose from 115 to 220, the scrap - refined copper spread increased by 869, and the LME inventory increased by 675 tons [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The copper price is expected to rise, with a range of $10,500 - $11,300. Bullish factors include limited domestic scrap copper supply, increased domestic power grid demand in 2026, global computing center construction, and Southeast Asian power construction demand. The bearish factor is the potential outflow of North American inventories if US tariffs disappear [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased from 21,450 to 22,010, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,500 tons [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The Shanghai aluminum futures price has rebounded, and inventories are decreasing. The market may fluctuate in the short - term, with supply and demand expected to be loose in early 2026 and then tighten [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased from 22,370 to 22,990, the LME zinc inventory increased by 1,875 tons [1][2][12]. - **Market Outlook**: The zinc price has fluctuated this week. The supply side has issues such as declining TC and potential production cuts in December. The demand is weak both at home and abroad. The export window is open, and the price may not fall deeply [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased from 119,500 to 120,300, and the LME inventory increased by 126 tons [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply of pure nickel has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventories are rising. With ongoing policy support in Indonesia, short - selling opportunities can be monitored [3]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled, and scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply has increased slightly, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high. Given the potential policy support in Indonesia, short - selling opportunities are worth attention [3]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the lead price decreased, the LME inventory decreased by 5,100 tons [4][5]. - **Market Outlook**: The lead price has declined this week, with improved sales. The supply is abundant, and demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,200 [5]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the tin price increased, and the LME inventory decreased by 20 tons [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply side has limited recovery potential with many disturbances, and demand is mainly rigid. In the short - term, it's advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, consider buying near the cost line [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the 421 Yunnan and Sichuan basis improved, the 553 East China and Tianjin basis decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 336 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The production in Q4 is expected to be balanced with a slight surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price will likely oscillate at the cycle bottom based on seasonal marginal costs [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices decreased slightly, the basis weakened, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 770 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The market has been volatile due to multiple factors. In the short - term, supply and demand are both strong, but the upward price movement depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness [9].

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints The report presents the latest market information on the oilseeds and oils industry, including inventory, export, production, price, and spread data in countries such as the United States, Brazil, and Canada [1]. Detailed Summaries 1. Inventory and Export Data - Analysts expect the US 2025 - 26 soybean year - end inventory to rise to 302 million bushels, up from the USDA's November 14 estimate of 290 million bushels [1]. - For the week ending October 30, US soybean export sales increased by 1.2485 million tons, in line with expectations, with exports to the Chinese mainland up 232,000 tons. Export shipments were 1.0285 million tons [1]. - For the week ending October 30, US soybean meal export sales increased by 219,800 tons, meeting expectations, and export shipments were 238,700 tons [1]. - ANEC predicts that Brazil's December soybean exports will reach 2.81 million tons, up from 1.47 million tons last year, and soybean meal exports are expected to be 1.33 million tons, down from 2.17 million tons last year [1]. - Secex data shows that Brazil exported 4.19717712 million tons of soybeans in November, a 64.40% year - on - year increase [1]. 2. Production Data - Canada's 2025 rapeseed production reached a record high, with the national yield rising to 44.7 bushels per acre and production increasing by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons [1]. 3. Price and Spread Data - **Spot Prices**: From November 28 to December 4, 2025, the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, and palm oil in Guangzhou fluctuated [2]. - **Basis**: The report provides basis data for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil at different periods and locations [3][4][5]. - **Price Spreads**: The report includes various seasonal price spreads of oilseeds and oils, such as the spreads between different contract months of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as the spreads between different varieties [16].

纸浆早报 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加拿大 | 金狮 | CFR | 780 | 6300 | -1.50 | | | 雄狮 | CFR | 730 | 5535 | -457.04 | | 智利 | 银星 | CFR信用证 90天 | 680 | 5525 | 22.41 | 注：上一日汇率 - 7.07 美元价格以及人民币价格均采用卓创数据，以13%增值税计算 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/05 SP主力合约收盘价： 5496.00 | 日期 | 2025/12/04 | 2025/12/03 | 2025/12/02 | 2025/12/01 | 2025/11/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5496.00 | 5458.00 | 5328.00 | 5190.00 | 5198.00 | | 折美元价 | 674.79 | 674.79 | 658.04 | 640.65 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the given content Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price and Contract Information**: From November 26 to December 3, 2025, the price of 5mm glass in different regions showed various changes. For example, the price of 5mm glass in Wuhan Changli remained stable at 1130, while the price of 5mm glass in Hubei increased from 990 to 1060. The FG05 contract price decreased from 1169 to 1125, and the FG01 contract price decreased from 1037 to 1020 [1]. - **Profit and Cost**: The profit of North China coal - fired glass increased from 105.7 to 108.3, and the cost decreased from 930.3 to 922.7. The profit of South China natural gas glass remained at - 188.1, and the profit of North China natural gas glass decreased from - 304.5 to - 309.5. The 05FG and 01FG contract natural gas profits also decreased [1]. - **Sales and Production**: The sales and production rate of glass in different regions varied. The sales and production rate in Shahe was 97, in Hubei was 113, in East China was 105, and in South China was 128. The sales of Shahe factories were okay, but the sales of Shahe traders were average, and the spot - futures sales were poor. The transactions in Hubei factories were okay, but the transactions of Hubei mid - stream spot - futures were poor [1]. 纯碱 - **Price and Contract Information**: From November 26 to December 3, 2025, the price of heavy soda ash in different regions also changed. For example, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased from 1140 to 1130, and the price of heavy soda ash in Central China remained at 1150. The SA05 contract price decreased from 1241 to 1233, the SA01 contract price decreased from 1175 to 1165, and the SA09 contract price decreased from 1309 to 1295 [1]. - **Profit and Cost**: The profit of North China ammonia - soda ash decreased from - 288.7 to - 295.5, and the cost decreased from 1418.7 to 1415.5. The profit of North China combined - soda ash increased from - 445.3 to - 429.6 [1]. - **Inventory and Industry News**: The inventory of the mid - upstream of the soda ash industry continued to decline, and the second - phase project of Yuanxing started feeding [1].