s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | 指标 | 11/4 | 11/28 | 12/2 | 12/3 | 12/4 | 日度变化 | 팀 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基差&月差 | 山东基差(+80)(弘润) | 17 | 44 | 114 | 78 | 48 | -30 | | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 157 | 54 | 134 | 88 | 88 | 0 | | | | 华南基差(佛山库) | 107 | -16 | 64 | 18 | -2 | -20 | | | | 12-01 | -4 | -18 | -25 | -25 | -19 | 6 | | | | 12-03 | -35 | -48 | -53 | -52 | -47 | 5 | | | | 01-02 | -15 | -7 | -5 | -9 | -11 | -2 | | | | BU主力合约(01) | 3193 | 2996 | 2916 | 2952 | 2952 | 0 | | | | 成交量 | 228866 | 587546 | 4 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with some devices restarting, polyester load slightly increasing, and inventory decreasing, the basis strengthens, but the spot processing fee weakens. PX domestic operation declines, and overseas devices reduce load. In the future, TA will maintain a high - inspection state, downstream pressure is not obvious, and with India's revocation of BIS certification, the inventory accumulation slope is low, and there are opportunities for positive spreads and expanding processing fees [1]. - For MEG, with domestic coal - chemical devices restarting, overseas devices under maintenance, and port inventory stable, the basis weakens and coal - making efficiency improves slightly. In the future, inventory accumulation may slow down, and the current valuation compression space is limited. There are short - term put - selling opportunities, but the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [1]. - For polyester short - fiber, the device operation is stable, production and sales improve slightly, and inventory decreases. Demand is basically stable, and exports maintain high growth. In the short term, inventory pressure is limited, but the pattern may weaken in the long term. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [1]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price is stable. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Market Data**: From November 28 to December 4, 2025, the price of PTA fluctuated slightly. The average daily basis of spot transactions was 2601(-34). The Honggang 250 - million - ton device restarted [1]. - **Market Situation**: Some PTA devices restarted, the start - up rate increased month - on - month, polyester load increased slightly, inventory decreased, the basis continued to strengthen, and the spot processing fee decreased month - on - month. PX domestic operation declined, overseas devices reduced load, PXN strengthened month - on - month, disproportionation efficiency was weak, and isomerization efficiency remained stable. The aromatics price difference between the US and Asia shrank [1]. - **Outlook**: TA will maintain a high - inspection state, downstream especially filament and staple fiber have no obvious pressure. With India's revocation of BIS certification, the inventory accumulation slope is low, and far - month production capacity is limited. PX has a good pattern. Pay attention to opportunities for positive spreads and expanding processing fees [1]. MEG - **Market Data**: From November 28 to December 4, 2025, the price of MEG decreased. The basis was around 01(-3). The Shenghong 90 - million - ton device restarted [1]. - **Market Situation**: There was a concentrated restart of domestic coal - chemical devices, the start - up rate increased month - on - month. Some overseas devices were under maintenance, port inventory was stable at the beginning of the week, and the arrival forecast was low. The basis weakened, and coal - making efficiency improved slightly [1]. - **Outlook**: With supply reduction and high polyester start - up, the inventory accumulation rate is expected to slow down. Coal - making efficiency is at a low level, and the comparison with other olefins has weakened. The current valuation compression space is limited. Pay attention to short - term put - selling opportunities. In the long term, with new device launches and warehouse receipt pressure, the overall pattern is expected to be weak [1]. Polyester Short - Fiber - **Market Data**: The spot price was around 6339, and the market basis was around 01 - 80. The start - up rate was maintained at 97.5%, production and sales improved slightly, and inventory decreased month - on - month [1]. - **Market Situation**: The device operation was stable in the near - term. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory decreased, and finished - product inventory increased, with stable efficiency [1]. - **Outlook**: Short - fiber demand remains basically the same as before. Polyester yarn efficiency and start - up rate have not improved significantly, but short - fiber exports maintain high growth. In the short term, inventory pressure is limited. In the far - month, as the downstream enters the off - season and new supply devices are approaching launch, the pattern may weaken. The current processing fee is relatively neutral. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation [1]. Natural Rubber - **Market Data**: From November 28 to December 4, 2025, the prices of various types of natural rubber decreased to varying degrees. The national explicit inventory was stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price was stable [1]. - **Market Situation**: The Thai cup - rubber price was stable due to rainfall [1]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Date: December 5, 2025 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Report Core View - No explicit core view is presented in the provided text; it mainly offers data on synthetic rubber market indicators. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures - BR主力合约(12) price on December 4 was 10,455, with a daily change of -120 and a weekly change of 40 [4]. - Open interest on December 4 was 32,069, down 6,917 daily and 19,952 weekly [4]. - Volume data is not provided. - Warehouse receipt quantity on December 4 was 13,420, a daily decrease of 2,030 and a weekly decrease of 2,120 [4]. - The virtual - real ratio on December 4 was 11.95, down 1 daily and 5 weekly [4]. - The basis and spread data show various changes, e.g., the butadiene - BR basis had a daily change of 70 and a weekly change of -40 [4]. Spot - Shandong market price on December 4 was 10,450, down 50 daily and unchanged weekly [4]. - Chuanhua market price on December 4 was 10,400, unchanged daily and up 50 weekly [4]. - Qilu ex - factory price on December 4 was 10,600, unchanged daily and up 200 weekly [4]. - CFR Northeast Asia was 1,300 on December 4, unchanged daily and down 25 weekly; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,575, unchanged daily and down 25 weekly [4]. Profit - Spot processing profit on December 4 was 906, up 180 daily and 26 weekly [4]. - Import profit on December 4 was -430, down 50 daily and up 217 weekly [4]. - Export profit on December 4 was 1,390, up 43 daily and down 194 weekly [4]. BD (Butadiene) Spot - Shandong market price on December 4 was 7,200, down 225 daily and 25 weekly [4]. - Jiangsu market price on December 4 was 7,050, down 200 daily and up 50 weekly [4]. - Yangzi ex - factory price on December 4 was 7,100, unchanged daily and weekly [4]. - CFR China was 850 on December 4, unchanged daily and up 30 weekly [4]. Profit - Ethylene cracking profit data is mostly N/A. - Carbon four extraction profit data is incomplete. - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on December 4 was -1,764, down 200 daily and up 50 weekly [4]. - Import profit on December 4 was 115, down 200 daily and down 179 weekly [4]. - Export profit on December 4 was -986, up 174 daily and down 52 weekly [4]. Production Profit of Related Products - Styrene - butadiene production profit on December 4 was 1,538, unchanged daily and up 175 weekly [4]. - ABS production profit data is mostly N/A. - SBS production profit on December 4 was -335, unchanged daily and down 30 weekly [4].

、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担任何责任。 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 803.0 -6.0 -19.0 -7.0 -17.0 25省终端可用天数 24.3 -0.4 4.4 3.4 6.7 秦皇岛5000 703.0 -6.0 -20.0 -15.0 -22.0 25省终端供煤 551.7 -0.6 -56.8 -88.3 -71.1 广州港5500 855.0 -5.0 -5.0 15.0 -40.0 北方港库存 2616.0 14.0 96.0 418.0 -48.6 鄂尔多斯5500 555.0 -10.0 -30.0 5.0 -55.0 北方锚地船舶 51.0 -17.0 -29.0 -22.0 -4.0 大同5500 605.0 -10.0 -30.0 5.0 -65.0 北方港调入量 160.2 -20.1 -13.1 -16.5 4.5 榆林6000 732.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 -95.0 北方港吞吐量 153.1 -7.4 -0.9 24.3 -12.7 榆林62 ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/05 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/05 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 91250 11526 7.75 三月 91020 11476 7.94 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.03 -1611.35 现货出口 - 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/05 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22980 3302 6.96 三月 22905 3060 5.63 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.43 -4870.73 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/05 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22010 2868 7.68 三月 22115 2899 7.63 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.32 -1844.30 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/05 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 120300 14694 8.19 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.13 -1266.98 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/05 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 17150 1966 8.70 三月 17235 2005 11.43 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.68 39.38 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The PG futures price declined. The basis was -43 (-57), and the spread between January and February contracts was 109 (-19). Domestic civil LPG prices decreased, the spread between propane and civil LPG narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts was 4561 (-54). [1] - The prices of overseas paper goods decreased, the monthly spread strengthened, the change in the oil - gas price ratio between North Asia and North America was small. The domestic - overseas PG - CP spread was 126 (-2); PG - FEI was 114 (+3). The discounts for East China arrival, North America, and AFEI departure remained flat, the Middle East supply was tight with a discount of 35 US dollars (+13). Freight rates decreased slightly. [1] - The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -55 (+11). The profit of propylene production from PDH in Shandong slightly recovered, the alkylation unit slightly improved but was still poor, the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit was still good. [1] - The arrival volume increased, the external release decreased, factory inventories slightly increased, and port inventories increased. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan was expected to restart next week. [1] - Overall, the domestic chemical sector was relatively strong, and civil demand increased, but the arrival volume was expected to be high in December; the Middle East supply was tight, but the market may tend to wait and see as the CP official price was approaching. Attention should also be paid to the weather and oil prices. [1] 3) Summary According to Related Data Daily Changes - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4411 (+0), in Shandong was 4480 (+0), and in South China was 4530 (+0). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4460 (-20). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 101 (-21), and the spread between January and February contracts was 79 (-17). [1] - As of 15:00, FEI was 517 (+10) and CP was 502 (+3) US dollars per ton. [1] Weekly View - The PG futures price declined, the domestic civil LPG price decreased, the difference between propane and civil LPG narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased. [1] - Overseas paper goods prices declined, the monthly spread strengthened, the change in the oil - gas price ratio between North Asia and North America was small, and the domestic - overseas spreads changed. The discounts and freight rates had corresponding changes. [1] - The profit of some chemical production units changed, the arrival volume increased, the external release decreased, inventories increased, and the PDH operating rate decreased. [1] - The domestic chemical sector was relatively strong, civil demand increased, but the arrival volume was expected to be high in December, and the market may wait and see as the CP official price was approaching. Attention should be paid to the weather and oil prices. [1]

1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 临汾出厂价 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 900.00 1400.00 1900.00 2400.00 2900.00 3400.00 3900.00 4400.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 吕梁出厂价 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 4000.00 4500.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 日照港准一平仓 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 长治出厂价 202 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Coking Coal Daily Report - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center - Date: December 5, 2025 [1] Key Data Summary Coal Prices - **Domestic Main Coking Coal**: The price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1,505.00, unchanged from the previous day; Anze Main Coking Coal is 1,500.00, also unchanged [2]. - **Imported Coal**: Peak Downs is 222.00, with a weekly increase of 7.50; Goonyella is 221.00, with a weekly increase of 7.50 [2]. - **Other Prices**: The port delivery price of raw coal at the border is 987.00, down 28.00 from the previous day; the price of Shaheyi Meng 5 is 1,420.00, unchanged from the previous day [2]. Inventory - **Total Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory is 3,539.71, with a weekly increase of 81.45 [2]. - **Sub - inventories**: Coal mine inventory is 247.01, with a weekly increase of 23.09; port inventory is 294.50, with a weekly increase of 3.00; steel mill coking coal inventory is 801.30, with a weekly increase of 4.22; coking plant coking coal inventory is 1,010.30, with a weekly decrease of 27.89 [2]. Capacity Utilization and Other Indicators - **Coking Capacity Utilization**: The coking capacity utilization rate is 73.84, with a weekly increase of 0.89 [2]. - **Coking Coke Inventory**: The coking coke inventory is 85.97, with a weekly increase of 0.55 [2]. Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The price of the 05 contract is 1,167.00, up 5.50 from the previous day; the 09 contract is 1,236.50, up 8.50 from the previous day; the 01 contract is 1,075.00, down 4.50 from the previous day [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The 05 basis is - 83.32, down 5.50 from the previous day; the 5 - 9 spread is - 69.50, down 3.00 from the previous day [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on December 5, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block was 5100, unchanged from the previous day and week; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 was 5170, unchanged from the previous day but up 50 from the previous week. The export price of Tianjin 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1020 US dollars, down 10 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [2]. - For silicon - manganese alloy, on December 5, 2025, the latest ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5530, unchanged from the previous day but up 30 from the previous week; the latest price of Ningxia 6517 was 5520, unchanged from the previous day but up 40 from the previous week [2]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly production volume, weekly production volume (with a capacity share of 95%), and monthly capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - The production data of silicon - manganese alloy in China from 2021 - 2025 are shown, including weekly production volume, and procurement prices and quantities of Hebei Steel Group [6]. Demand - The demand data of silicon - manganese alloy in China from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including the demand volume (in ten thousand tons, according to the Steel Union's caliber), and the relationship with the estimated and actual production volume of crude steel in China [4][7]. - The demand - related data of silicon ferroalloy are related to the production of crude steel, stainless steel, and the procurement of Hebei Steel Group [4]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including the total inventory in China, and the inventory in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi on a weekly basis. Also, data on the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of them are provided [5]. - The inventory data of silicon - manganese alloy from 2021 - 2025 are shown, including the total number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of inventory, as well as the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China on a weekly basis [7]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, the cost - related data such as electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, and the market price of semi - coke in Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 are provided. Also, the production cost and profit data in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia are presented [5]. - For silicon - manganese alloy, the cost - related data such as the ex - factory price of chemical coke in Ordos, and the summary prices of various manganese ores from 2021 - 2025 are provided. The profit data in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions are also shown [6][7].

1. Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Views - Corn prices will remain strong in the short - term due to low supply and downstream restocking demand, and may start a new upward cycle in the medium - to - long term after the release of farmers' selling pressure [3] - Starch prices are under pressure in the short - term due to high inventory, and downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor for medium - to - long - term price trends [3] - For sugar, maintain a high - short strategy as the global and domestic supply is loose, but the short - term downward space is limited [7] - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as new cotton production is estimated to decline and the external environment for textile exports has improved [8] - The future decline rate of egg inventory depends on the culling rhythm, and the culling rhythm has slightly accelerated in the past two weeks [11] - Apple prices are short - term bearish as the market is well - stocked and good - quality goods are scarce after a recent rally [16] - For pigs, there are expectations of both increased supply and demand before the Spring Festival, but the supply and inventory pressure is still large, and the market is waiting for the peak season test [16] 3. Summary of Each Product Corn/Starch - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, corn prices in some regions changed (e.g.,锦州 up 10), and the corn basis decreased by 18, while the import profit increased by 26. Starch basis decreased by 28, and processing profit decreased by 20 [2] - **Market Analysis**: Short - term corn prices are strong due to supply shortage and restocking demand; starch prices are under pressure from high inventory [3] Sugar - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, sugar prices in some regions decreased (e.g.,柳州 down 20), and the basis increased by 18 [6] - **Market Analysis**: Short - term Zhengzhou sugar is more affected by policies than the foreign market, and in the long - term, domestic sugar costs may be impacted by imported sugar. Maintain a high - short strategy [7] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 15, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 496 [8] - **Market Analysis**: New cotton production is expected to decline, and the external environment for textile exports has improved, making it suitable for long - term long positions [8] Eggs - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, egg prices in some regions remained stable or decreased slightly (e.g.,湖北 down 0.06), and the basis increased by 7 [11] - **Market Analysis**: The egg inventory inflection point has appeared, and the future decline rate depends on the culling rhythm, which has slightly accelerated recently [11] Apples - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, apple prices remained stable, and the national inventory decreased by 1.00 [15][16] - **Market Analysis**: The national apple storage is basically completed, with a lower storage rate than last year. The market is short - term bearish [16] Pigs - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, pig prices in some regions changed slightly, and the basis increased by 155 [16] - **Market Analysis**: There are expectations of both increased supply and demand before the Spring Festival, but the supply and inventory pressure is large, and the market is waiting for the peak season test [16]