Yong An Qi Huo

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大类资产早报-20250923
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:18
| | | --- | | come of a propo con con-come and con- | | | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/09/23 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/09/22 | 4.148 | 4.712 | 3.559 | 2.747 | 3.543 | 3.297 | 0.169 | 3.402 | | 最新变化 | 0.020 | -0.002 | 0.006 | 0.001 | 0.011 | 0.004 | -0.009 | 0.010 | | 一周变化 | 0.109 | 0.080 | 0.081 | 0.057 | 0.070 | 0.054 | -0.050 | 0.068 | | 一月变化 | -0.128 | 0.021 | 0.050 | ...
贵金属早报-20250923
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:16
Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 3663.15 with no change [2] - London Silver's latest price is 42.24 with no change [2] - London Platinum's latest price is 1393.00, down 1.00 [2] - London Palladium's latest price is 1151.00, down 6.00 [2] - WTI Crude's latest price is 62.68 with no change [2] - LME Copper's latest price is 9998.50, up 36.00 [2] - US Dollar Index's latest value is 97.65 with no change [2] - Euro to US Dollar's latest exchange rate is 1.17 with no change [2] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest exchange rate is 1.35 with no change [2] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest exchange rate is 147.97 with no change [2] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest value is 1.75 with no change [2] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 16299.57 with no change [3] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 1148.62, down 10.82 [3] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1000.57, up 6.01 [3] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15368.90, up 163.76 [3] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 1248.26 with no change [3] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1, down 1.00 [3] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [3]
永安期货纸浆早报-20250923
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:06
Group 1: SP Main Contract Closing Price - The closing price of the SP main contract on September 22, 2025, was 5008.00 [3] - The closing prices from September 16 - 22, 2025, were 5068.00, 5042.00, 5014.00, 5018.00, and 5008.00 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.23734%, -0.51302%, -0.55534%, 0.07978%, and -0.19928% [3] - The corresponding converted US - dollar prices were 621.53, 619.23, 615.54, 615.64, and 614.20 [3] - The Shandong Yinxing basis on September 22, 2025, was 602, and values from September 16 - 21 were 582, 598, 611, 607 [3] - The Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis on September 22, 2025, was 617, and values from September 16 - 21 were 612, 623, 636, 632 [3] Group 2: Pulp Import Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, for Canadian Golden Lion (CFR), the port US - dollar price was 780, the Shandong region RMB price was 6200, and the import profit was - 136.75; for Canadian Lion (CFR), the port US - dollar price was 730, the Shandong region RMB price was 5410, and the import profit was - 510.04; for Chilean Yinxing (CFR letter of credit 90 days), the port US - dollar price was 720, the Shandong region RMB price was 5610, and the import profit was - 244.70 [4] Group 3: Pulp Price Averages - From September 16 - 22, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively; the Shandong region average prices also remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 [4] Group 4: Paper Index and Profit Margin - From September 17 - 22, 2025, the cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index) remained unchanged at 5725, 5670, 4350 respectively; the living paper index changed from 835 to 839 and then back to 835 [4] - The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white - card paper, and living paper on September 22, 2025, were 1.9642%, 15.6172%, - 12.6135%, and 6.6876% respectively, with changes of - 0.0674, - 1.7680, - 0.0368, and - 0.3629 compared to September 17, 2025 [4] Group 5: Pulp Price Spreads - From September 16 - 22, 2025, the softwood - hardwood price spread changed from 1460 to 1370; the softwood - natural price spread changed from 250 to 210; the softwood - chemimechanical price spread changed from 1825 to 1785; the softwood - waste paper price spread changed from 4074 to 4034 [4]
沥青早报-20250923
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:01
Group 1: Market Data Overview - The report provides data on asphalt futures contracts (BU10, BU11, BU12, BU01, BU03) from August 22 to September 22, 2025, including prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory [4]. - It also presents spot market prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast China) and at various warehouses (Zhenjiang, Foshan), as well as price differentials and basis [4]. - Data on crack spreads, profits (including asphalt - Brent crack spread, asphalt - Ma Rui profit, refinery comprehensive profits, and import profits), and related oil prices (Brent crude, gasoline, and diesel in Shandong) are included [4]. Group 2: Futures Contract Price Movements - For BU10, the price decreased by 20 on September 22 compared to the previous day and increased by 33 on a weekly basis [4]. - BU11, BU12, BU01, and BU03 also showed daily and weekly price changes, with varying degrees of increase or decrease [4]. Group 3: Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of asphalt futures decreased by 3,245 on September 22 compared to the previous day and decreased by 114,402 on a weekly basis [4]. - Open interest increased by 9,303 on September 22 compared to the previous day and decreased by 16,211 on a weekly basis [4]. Group 4: Spot Market Prices - Shandong's asphalt market price decreased by 10 on September 22 compared to the previous day and decreased by 20 on a weekly basis [4]. - East China's price remained stable on September 22 but decreased by 50 on a weekly basis, while South China's price was unchanged on both a daily and weekly basis [4]. - North China's price was stable on September 22 and increased by 10 on a weekly basis, and Northeast China's price decreased by 20 on both a daily and weekly basis [4]. Group 5: Basis and Spread - The basis and spread between different regions and contracts showed various changes. For example, the Shandong - East China basis decreased by 10 on September 22 compared to the previous day and increased by 30 on a weekly basis [4]. - The basis between different contract months (e.g., 10 - 11, 10 - 12) also had daily and weekly fluctuations [4]. Group 6: Crack Spreads and Profits - The asphalt - Brent crack spread increased by 29 on September 22 compared to the previous day and increased by 23 on a weekly basis [4]. - Asphalt - Ma Rui profit increased by 27 on September 22 compared to the previous day and increased by 22 on a weekly basis [4]. - Refinery comprehensive profits (ordinary and Ma Rui - type) and import profits showed different trends, with some increasing and some remaining stable [4].
废钢早报-20250923
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:00
废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/09/23 华东 स्क 中部 日期 华南 2025/09/165 2257 2074 2270 2333 原点 2025/09/17 2259 2333 2080 2268 沙钢重三价格 (含税) � 2022 � 2023 � 2024 ● 2025 4,200 元/吨 3,900 3,600 3,300 3,000 2,700 2,400 2,100 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 镇江鸿泰剪切料价格 (不含税) ↓ 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ↓ 2025 3,600 3,600 3,300 3,000 2,700 2,400 2,100 1,800 品周H 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 长流程日耗 短流程日耗 ↓ 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ↓ 2025 倡展H u48 12 10 8 e 4 2 0 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 张家港废钢到货 】 据点资讯 ◆ 2022 ◆ 2023 ◆ 2024 ◆ 20 ...
永安合成橡胶早报-20250923
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:00
Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [2] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Data**: On September 22, the closing price of the main contract was 11,505, up 60 from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week; the open interest was 70,306, down 4,953 from the previous day and up 51,521 week - on - week; the trading volume was 95,866, up 1,305 from the previous day and up 59,284 week - on - week; the warrant quantity was 9,190, down 1,040 from the previous day and down 4,480 week - on - week; the virtual - to - real ratio was 38.25; the butadiene rubber basis was 45, down 110 from the previous day and up 50 week - on - week; the butadiene rubber basis (two major oil companies) was 195, down 60 from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [3]. - **Spot Data**: The Shandong market price was 11,550, down 50 from the previous day and down 150 week - on - week; the Transfar market price was 11,450, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 week - on - week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week; CFR Northeast Asia was 1,525, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,700, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [3]. - **Profit Data**: The spot processing profit was - 238, up 52 from the previous day and down 150 week - on - week; the futures processing profit was - 283, up 162 from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week; the import profit was - 83,031, down 54 from the previous day and up 1,520 week - on - week; the export profit was 155, up 44 from the previous day and up 124 week - on - week [3]. BD (Butadiene) - **Price Data**: The Shandong market price was 9,400, down 100 from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week; the Jiangsu market price was 9,200, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 week - on - week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,150, down 100 from the previous day and down 100 week - on - week; CFR China was 1,060, down 10 from the previous day and down 30 week - on - week [3]. - **Profit Data**: The carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 196, up 90 from the previous day and up 110 week - on - week; the import profit was 527, up 80 from the previous day and up 197 week - on - week; the export profit was - 896, unchanged from the previous day and up 110 week - on - week [3]. Downstream Products - The butadiene rubber production profit was - 283, up 162 from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week; the styrene - butadiene rubber production profit was 1,063, up 100 from the previous day and down 50 week - on - week; the ABS production profit was N/A; the SBS production profit (791 - H) was 955, up 70 from the previous day and up 130 week - on - week [3]. Price Spreads - **Inter - variety Spreads**: RU - BR was - 54,691, up 5,033 from the previous day and down 51,901 week - on - week; NR - BR was - 57,881, up 5,078 from the previous day and down 51,806 week - on - week; Thai mixed - butadiene rubber was 3,300, up 170 from the previous day and down 150 week - on - week; 3L - styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,100, up 50 from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [3]. - **Intra - variety Spreads**: The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price spread was 150, down 50 from the previous day and down 50 week - on - week; the styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [3].
永安期货有色早报-20250923
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 00:59
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper fundamentals show resilience, with downstream开工 rising and weakening scrap substitution. Consider mid - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500 yuan or selling put options below 78,000 yuan [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, with inventory expected to decline in September. Hold on dips in a low - inventory situation and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [2]. - Zinc prices are moving down in a volatile way. The current internal - weak and external - strong pattern may further differentiate. Hold short positions and partially take profit on internal - external positive arbitrage [6]. - Nickel has weak short - term fundamentals, with high - level production and weak demand. The geopolitical risk in Indonesia has eased, but there are price - supporting policies [7]. - Stainless steel has weak fundamentals. Steel mills are expected to resume production slightly, with mainly rigid demand. The short - term macro - situation follows the anti - involution expectation [7]. - Lead prices rose due to macro factors. Supply is tight, while demand has a slight improvement, but inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to fluctuate greatly in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 yuan next week [9]. - Tin prices are in wide - range fluctuations. The domestic and overseas supply is expected to improve marginally. The short - term fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand. Suggest short - term waiting and light - position short selling above 275,000 yuan/ton [12]. - Industrial silicon is in a tight - balance state in September and October, affected by the resumption rhythm of Southwest and Hesheng. In the long - term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16]. - Carbonate lithium prices are moving strongly in a volatile way. With supply - side disturbances and seasonal demand, the price has high elasticity after the supply - side hype and strong downward support before that [18]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Market Data**: This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan. The downstream开工 rate increased, and the scrap substitution effect weakened. The internal - external positive arbitrage has space [1]. - **Strategy**: Consider mid - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500 yuan or selling put options below 78,000 yuan [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Data**: Aluminum prices declined slightly. The downstream开工 improved, and the inventory is expected to decline in September [1][2]. - **Strategy**: Hold on dips in a low - inventory situation and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [2]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: Zinc prices moved down in a volatile way. Supply from overseas mines increased, and domestic demand is seasonally weak. The LME inventory is at a low level [6]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions and partially take profit on internal - external positive arbitrage [6]. Nickel - **Price and Market Data**: Nickel prices declined slightly. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The geopolitical risk in Indonesia has eased [7]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is mentioned other than the analysis of fundamentals [7]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Data**: Stainless steel prices were relatively stable. Steel mills are expected to resume production slightly, with mainly rigid demand [7]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is mentioned other than the analysis of fundamentals [7]. Lead - **Price and Market Data**: Lead prices rose due to macro factors. Supply is tight, and demand has a slight improvement, but inventory is at a high level [9]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate greatly in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 yuan next week [9]. Tin - **Price and Market Data**: Tin prices fluctuated widely. Domestic and overseas supply is expected to improve marginally, and demand is mainly rigid [12]. - **Strategy**: Suggest short - term waiting and light - position short selling above 275,000 yuan/ton [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Market Data**: Industrial silicon is in a tight - balance state in September and October, affected by the resumption rhythm of Southwest and Hesheng [16]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price and Market Data**: Carbonate lithium prices are moving strongly in a volatile way. Supply - side disturbances and seasonal demand affect the market [18]. - **Strategy**: The price has high elasticity after the supply - side hype and strong downward support before that [18].
永安期货焦炭日报-20250923
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 00:58
焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/9/23 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1427.78 | 0.00 | -54.61 | -108.16 | -14.41% 高炉开工率 | 90.35 | | 0.17 | 0.10 | 7.70% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1680.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -110.00 | 7.69% 铁水日均产量 | 241.02 | | 0.47 | 0.27 | 7.68% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1605.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -110.00 | -10.34% 盘面05 | 1868.5 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 114.00 | -1.03% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1645.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -110.00 | -10.11% 盘面09 | 1948 ...
永安期货焦煤日报-20250923
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 00:58
Report Information - Report Title: Coking Coal Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [1] Key Price and Inventory Data Coal Prices - The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1503.00, with a weekly increase of 102.00 and an annual increase of 7.36% [2] - The latest price of Raw Coal Port Delivery Price is 1020.00, with a daily increase of 11.00, a weekly increase of 70.00, a monthly increase of 72.00, and an annual decrease of 10.53% [2] - The latest price of Shaheyi Meng 5 is 1350.00, with a monthly decrease of 30.00 and an annual decrease of 18.18% [2] - The latest price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1500.00, with a weekly increase of 80.00, a monthly increase of 30.00, and an annual decrease of 10.71% [2] Future Prices - The latest price of Futures 05 is 1323.00, with a daily increase of 10.50, a monthly increase of 79.00, and an annual increase of 4.46% [2] - The latest price of Futures 09 is 1389.50, with a daily increase of 9.00, a weekly increase of 18.00, a monthly increase of 326.50, and an annual increase of 6.23% [2] - The latest price of Futures 01 is 1229.00, with a daily increase of 13.00, a monthly increase of 30.50, and an annual decrease of 2.54% [2] Inventory Data - The total inventory is 3372.99, with a weekly increase of 56.61, a monthly decrease of 100.63, and an annual decrease of 10.92% [2] - The coal mine inventory is 232.79, with a weekly decrease of 21.73, a monthly decrease of 42.85, and an annual decrease of 15.02% [2] - The port inventory is 271.11, with a weekly decrease of 4.38, a monthly increase of 15.62, and an annual decrease of 34.53% [2] - The steel mill coking coal inventory is 793.73, with a weekly decrease of 2.03, a monthly decrease of 12.07, and an annual increase of 10.49% [2] - The coking coking coal inventory is 883.54, with a weekly decrease of 36.51, a monthly decrease of 93.34, and an annual increase of 4.31% [2] Other Data - The coking capacity utilization rate is 75.87, with a monthly increase of 1.45 and an annual increase of 9.88% [2] - The coking coke inventory is 86.03, with a monthly decrease of 0.14 and an annual decrease of 0.06% [2] - The 05 basis is -23.34, with a daily increase of 5.59, a weekly increase of 92.95, and an annual decrease of 217.42 [2] - The 09 basis is -89.84, with a daily increase of 7.09, a weekly increase of 73.95, and an annual decrease of 1.59 [2] - The 01 basis is 70.66, with a daily increase of 3.09, a weekly increase of 91.45, and an annual decrease of 0.65 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is -66.50, with a daily increase of 1.50, a weekly decrease of 19.00, a monthly decrease of 247.50, and an annual increase of 0.60 [2] - The 9 - 1 spread is 160.50, with a daily decrease of 4.00, a weekly increase of 17.50, a monthly increase of 296.00, and an annual increase of 2.41 [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is -94.00, with a daily increase of 2.50, a weekly increase of 1.50, a monthly decrease of 48.50, and an annual increase of 16.09 [2]
芳烃橡胶早报-20250923
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 00:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - end TA maintenance has been implemented, the start - up has declined slightly, polyester load has remained stable, inventory has accumulated slightly, the basis has weakened, and the spot processing margin has slightly recovered. With the restart of the device, TA de - stocking will slow down. Considering the lack of unexpected performance in polyester and new production in the future, the far - end inventory is expected to accumulate. However, the processing fee has reached a very low level for a long time, and as PX supply gradually returns, attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand the processing fee under potential additional maintenance [1]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic oil - based production has slightly reduced the load, coal - based start - up has remained stable, overseas maintenance and restart coexist, port inventory has slightly accumulated at the beginning of next week due to stable arrivals and dull shipments, downstream stocking levels have increased, the basis has weakened month - on - month, and the benefit ratio has shrunk. The near - end new device has been put into production earlier than expected, and the valuation has been significantly compressed. With the increase in arrivals month - on - month and the high - supply expectation in the far - end, the port may start to gradually accumulate inventory. However, the actual inventory is still not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up has increased to 95.4% as some devices have increased their loads, sales have improved month - on - month, and inventory has continued to decline. On the demand side, the start - up of the polyester yarn end has remained stable, raw material stocking has increased, and finished - product inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the benefit is weak. In the future, the speed of increasing the load at the polyester yarn end may slow down due to the high level of finished - product inventory. Although the start - up remains high due to the good spot benefit of staple fiber, the inventory pressure is limited, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [1]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory has remained stable, and the price of Thai cup lump has remained stable. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Device Changes**: Hengli Huizhou's 5 million - ton device has reduced the load, and Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million - ton device has restarted [1]. - **Market Conditions**: The average daily basis of PTA spot transactions is 2601(- 84). The domestic start - up of PX has declined, overseas devices have operated stably, PXN has weakened month - on - month, the benefits of disproportionation and isomerization have remained basically stable, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia has widened [1]. MEG - **Device Changes**: Xinjiang Tianye's 600,000 - ton device has stopped again [1]. - **Market Conditions**: The basis of MEG spot transactions is around + 92 for 01. The near - end domestic oil - based production has slightly reduced the load, coal - based start - up has remained stable, overseas maintenance and restart coexist, port inventory has slightly accumulated at the beginning of next week, downstream stocking levels have increased, the basis has weakened month - on - month, and the benefit ratio has shrunk [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Device Changes**: Some devices such as Zhongtai and Xianglu have increased their loads, and the start - up has increased to 95.4% [1]. - **Market Conditions**: The spot price is around 6418, and the market basis is around - 10 for 10. Sales have improved month - on - month, inventory has continued to decline. On the demand side, the start - up of the polyester yarn end has remained stable, raw material stocking has increased, and finished - product inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the benefit is weak [1]. Natural Rubber - **Market Conditions**: The national explicit inventory has remained stable, and the price of Thai cup lump has remained stable. The daily and weekly price changes of various rubber products are provided in the report, such as the daily change of Shanghai full - latex is - 100, and the weekly change is - 460 [1]. Styrene - related Products - **Price Changes**: The prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and related products have changed. For example, the daily change of pure benzene (CFR China) is - 10, and the daily change of styrene (Jiangsu) is - 75 [1]. - **Profit and Start - up Rate**: The domestic profits of PS, ABS, and EPS have changed, and the start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS are also presented in the report [1].