Group 1: Copper - The LME copper price dropped 4.5% on Friday due to Trump's tariff announcement, closing above $10,300 per ton. The current tariff impact and market panic are estimated to be lower than the Tomb - Sweeping Festival disturbance [1]. - The smelting reduction exceeded expectations, and there was medium - level inventory accumulation this week. After the sharp decline in copper price on Friday, the volume of price - fixing and goods receiving is expected to increase significantly next week, driving inventory depletion [1]. - Maintain a callback - buying strategy for copper, pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventory [1]. Group 2: Aluminum - The operating capacity is increasing slightly. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum in September has significantly rebounded. However, there is seasonal inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots and bars due to the holiday effect [1]. - The global economic recovery is showing signs, and the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is strengthening. But the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations has deepened, leading to a certain divergence in the trends of domestic and foreign markets [1]. - The short - term fundamentals are acceptable. Keep an eye on terminal demand and hold at low prices in the long term [1]. Group 3: Zinc - The domestic zinc price fluctuated and rose this week due to the US government shutdown sentiment and the opening of the export window [2]. - The domestic TC of zinc is decreasing, and the imported TC is increasing. The domestic zinc ore supply will be tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas zinc ore supply increased more than expected in the second quarter [2]. - The domestic fundamentals of zinc are poor, but the export window may open due to export profits. It is recommended to wait and see under the enhanced macro - uncertainty. Consider gradually taking profits on domestic - foreign positive spreads and pay attention to the opportunity of far - month reverse spreads. Also, focus on the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2]. Group 4: Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is stable in China and increasing overseas. The short - term fundamentals are weak [4]. - The Indonesian protests have subsided, but there are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore sector, and the policy side still has the motivation to support prices [4]. Group 5: Stainless Steel - Steel mills' production schedules in October increased slightly compared to the previous month. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, the prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron are stable, and there is inventory accumulation during the holiday in Xijia and Foshan, with the warehouse receipts remaining stable [9]. - The overall fundamentals are weak. The short - term macro - trade friction uncertainty increases, and the Indonesian policy side has a certain motivation to support prices [9]. Group 6: Lead - The lead price rose this week due to macro factors. The supply of recycled lead is expected to increase by 30,000 tons in October, and the primary lead concentrate is in short supply [13]. - The battery production rate increased this week, but the finished - product inventory is high. After the National Day, the demand may weaken. The refined - scrap price difference is - 25, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 100,000 tons [13]. - The lead price is expected to fluctuate at a high level next week, ranging from 17,000 to 17,400 [13]. Group 7: Tin - The tin price moved up this week due to macro factors. The domestic processing fee for tin ore is low, and some domestic smelters have reduced production. Overseas supply is expected to recover in October [16]. - The demand for solder has slightly improved during the peak season, mainly supported by rigid demand. The domestic inventory has slightly decreased, and the overseas LME inventory is fluctuating at a low level [16]. - The short - term domestic fundamentals are in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold at low prices close to the cost line in the long term [16]. Group 8: Industrial Silicon - A leading enterprise in Xinjiang resumed production this week. The start - up in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable, and there is a strong expectation of production reduction in November. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are balanced in Q4 [17]. - In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [17]. Group 9: Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated this week. Overseas mines have a strong willingness to support prices, and traders are reluctant to sell, but salt factories have a low acceptance of high - priced lithium ore [17]. - The pre - holiday inventory - building rhythm was strong first and then weak and is now approaching the end. The spot basis is stable and slightly weak, and some discounts have widened by 100 - 200 yuan [17]. - Lithium carbonate is still in the capacity expansion cycle, and the static supply - demand pattern is still in surplus. With the help of the seasonal peak season and the explosion of energy - storage demand, the monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory depletion, but the amplitude is average [17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices declined as the first - stage cease - fire agreement in the Gaza region was reached, and the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East was reversed. Trump reignited the trade war, worsening the macro - sentiment, causing Brent crude to fall to $62 per barrel with a daily decline of over 4%. Fundamentally, crude oil supply continued to be released, with OPEC confirming a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November and a market expectation of a further increase in December. Global floating crude oil storage increased significantly. The EIA reported a commercial crude inventory build in the US. Global refinery profits declined with the fall in diesel cracking. The Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume next week, restoring global gasoline supply. Considering the sanctions on Iran and the impact on refinery raw material supply, the fourth - quarter refinery start - up expectations are slightly lowered. Overall, there will be an oversupply of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. The absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From September 26 to October 10, WTI decreased by $2.61, BRENT by $2.49, and DUBAI by $1.68. SC decreased by 9.10, and OMAN by $2.75. Domestic gasoline increased by 20.00, and domestic diesel decreased by 35.00. Japanese naphtha decreased by 7.50, and Singapore fuel oil 380CST had a slight change. HH natural gas increased by 0.130, and BFO decreased by $1.33 [3] 2. Daily News - The UK media reported that the US has been assisting Ukraine in attacking Russian energy facilities, with no responses from the US, Russia, or Ukraine. The Iranian foreign minister doubts the US's ability to fulfill its commitments. A Hamas official said the group is ready to give up the governance of the Gaza Strip. There is a cease - fire agreement in Gaza. The US Treasury Secretary said India will adjust its energy structure towards US oil, and the US Treasury has sanctioned over 50 entities related to Iranian oil [3][4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - The EIA report shows that in the week of October 3, US crude exports decreased by 161,000 barrels per day, domestic production increased by 124,000 barrels per day, commercial crude inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.715 million barrels (0.89% increase), and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 285,000 barrels (0.07% increase). The four - week average supply of US crude products increased by 1.68% year - on - year. From September 12 - 18, the main refinery operating rate fluctuated slightly, and the Shandong local refinery operating rate increased slightly. Domestic gasoline and diesel production and inventory both increased [4] 4. Weekly Viewpoints - Oil prices dropped this week due to the cease - fire in the Gaza region and a worsening macro - environment. Crude oil supply is increasing, and global floating storage has risen. The EIA reported a commercial crude inventory build in the US. Global refinery profits are falling. The Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume next week. The sanctions on Iran may affect refinery raw material supply, and the fourth - quarter refinery start - up expectations are slightly lowered. There will be an oversupply in the fourth quarter and 2026, and the fourth - quarter price center is expected to decline [5]

| 日期 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/09/30 | 2025/09/29 | 2025/09/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 4788.00 | 4804.00 | 4834.00 | 4878.00 | 5016.00 | | 折美元价 | 586.14 | 588.02 | 592.24 | 597.56 | 613.50 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -0.33306% | -0.62060% | -0.90201% | -2.75120% | -0.86957% | | 山东银星基差 | 747 | 731 | 731 | 687 | 594 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 772 | 756 | 726 | 682 | 609 | 以13%增值税计算 纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/13 SP主力合约收盘价： 4788.00 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

10/12 12/02 1.4 1.2 1.2 J 0.8 OF 0 6 1 SP 7 P 275 0245 age(正常年份) ge(正常年份) - 2024 (绕行后) 2024 02/04 12/次年04 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 2024 (绕行后) e(正常年份) 2024 (绕行后) 欧线现货报价 船司线上报价结构（40GP) 船司线上报价结构(折盘面) -9月15日 9日8日 -9月30日 -10月9日 9月8日 -9月15日 -9月30日 10月9日 1000 EMC MSK MSC CMA ONE OOCI CMA EMC HMM HPL MSK MSC ONE OOCL 翡运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/10/13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 合約 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基美 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓昼 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | EC2510 | | 1121.1 | ...

Group 1: Report Core Information - Brazilian soybean sowing progress reached 12.48% of the expected 2025 planting area, significantly higher than 5.28% in the same period last year [1] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of September reached a nearly two - year high, with a 7.2% increase from the previous month to 236 million tons [1] - Malaysia's September crude palm oil production decreased by 0.73% from the previous month to 1.84 million tons, ending a two - month increase [1] - Malaysia's September palm oil exports increased by 7.69% to 1.43 million tons, the highest since November 2024 [1] - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 10, 2025 increased by 19.4% compared to the same period last month [1] - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 10, 2025 increased by 9.9% compared to the same period last month [1] Group 2: Spot Price Information - From September 26 to October 10, 2025, the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu fluctuated. For example, soybean meal in Jiangsu was 2880 on September 26, 2890 on September 30, 2900 on October 9, and 2880 on October 10 [1][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current PG basis is high, FEI and CP valuations are low. The Sino - US tariff truce agreement will expire on November 10th. The improvement of PDH profit may lead to the purchase demand for CP cargo. One can focus on narrowing PDH profit, but should be aware of the risk of a low - opening CP official price at the end of the month [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Price and Basis Information - On Friday, for civil gas, prices had both increases and decreases: East China was 4384 (+4), Shandong was 4450 (+20), and South China was 4590 (-10). Ether - post carbon four was 4590 (-30). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 314 (+6), and the November - December spread was 78 (-16). FEI and CP decreased slightly, at 498 (-2) and 472 (-1) dollars/ton respectively [1] - The PG futures price dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4384 (+21); Shandong was 4450 (-100), South China was 4570 (-70). The basis was 314 (+188), and the November - December spread was 78 (+0). Warehouse receipts were cancelled to zero in September. The October CP official price opened low at 495/475, the lowest in two years, 40 - 60 dollars lower than expected [1] Spread and Arbitrage Information - The internal - external spreads were as follows: PG - CP reached 108 (+3); PG - FEI reached 101 (+13). FEI - CP was 7.5 (-10). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. AFEI was at a discount of - 18.75, and the South China arrival discount was 52 [1] Freight and Margin Information - Freight rates dropped significantly: US Gulf - Japan was 126 (-5), Middle East - Far East was 63 (-5.5). The FEI - MOPJ spread widened significantly to - 83 (-28). The spot profit margin of PDH to propylene changed little; the profit of producing PP recovered from a low level [1] Inventory and Demand Information - Inventory pressure was small, supply was abundant, chemical demand provided strong support, and combustion demand was gradually picking up. The PDH operating rate was 70.88% (-1.64pct), with Haichang, Lihuayi Weiyuan, and Tianjin Bohua shut down, and Zhongjing expected to resume next week [1]

| | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1550.00 | 0.00 | 47.00 | 140.00 | -3.13% Peak Downs | 206.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 4.50 | -21.80 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 1028.00 | -6.00 | -12.00 | 98.00 | -19.06% Goonyella | 205.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 3.00 | -22.30 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1450.00 | 0.00 | 60.00 | 70.00 | -17.14% 盘面05 | 1262.00 | 20.50 | -42.00 | 122.50 | -14.50% | | 安泽主焦 | 1530.00 | 0.00 | -60.00 | 110.00 | -15.00% 盘面09 | 1347.00 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on October 13, 2025, including prices, ratios, spreads, and profit data [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 13, 2025, the domestic spot price was 86,550, the LME price was 10,706, and the ratio was 8.11. The profit from spot import was - 947.78 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,310, the LME price was 3,104, and the ratio was 7.19. The profit from spot import was - 4,175.73 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,990, the LME price was 2,780, and the ratio was 7.55. The profit from spot import was - 2,342.57 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 124,900, the LME price was 15,131, and the ratio was 8.25. The profit from spot import was - 1,256.48 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,925, the LME price was 1,988, and the ratio was 8.51. The profit from spot import was - 642.27 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were - 820, - 820, - 790, and - 850 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 536, 969, 1412, and 1855 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 10, 20, 50, and 65, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 335, 455, and 576 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 120, - 105, - 105, and - 130, and the theoretical spreads were 217, 334, 452, and 569 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 40, 50, 65, and 35, and the theoretical spreads were 211, 317, 424, and 530 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 2080, - 1890, - 1700, and - 1550 [4]. - **Tin**: The spread for 5 - 1 was - 150, and the theoretical spread was 5921 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 75 and - 745, and the theoretical spreads were 174 and 533 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 30 and - 40, and the theoretical spreads were 81 and 211 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 175 and 215, and the theoretical spreads were 117 and 230 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 13, 2025, for the cross - variety ratios: copper/zinc (Shanghai: 3.85, London: 3.50), copper/aluminum (Shanghai: 4.09, London: 3.83), copper/lead (Shanghai: 5.01, London: 5.21), aluminum/zinc (Shanghai: 0.94, London: 0.92), aluminum/lead (Shanghai: 1.22, London: 1.36), lead/zinc (Shanghai: 0.77, London: 0.67) [5].

| | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1482.39 | 0.00 | 54.61 | 0.00 | #N/A 高炉开工率 | 90.55 | | -0.10 | 0.37 | 5.77% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1735.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | 0.00 | -1.42% 铁水日均产量 | 241.54 | | -0.27 | 0.99 | 3.63% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1660.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | 0.00 | -17.41% 盘面05 | 1813.5 | 26.50 | -49.00 | 118.00 | -15.34% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1700.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | 0.00 | -17.07% 盘面09 | 1905 | 26.00 | -28.50 | 424.00 | -11.25% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - No clear core view is presented in the report. It mainly provides data on asphalt futures and spot markets, including prices, trading volumes, open interest, basis, and spreads. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - BU main contract price decreased from 3463 on 9/11 to 3328 on 10/10, with a daily change of -47 and an interval change of -112 [4][12][20]. - BU10 price increased by 9 from 10/9 to 10/10, but decreased by -20 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - Other contracts (BU11, BU12, BU01, BU03) also showed price changes, with varying degrees of decline [4][12][20]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - Trading volume increased from 216059 on 10/9 to 323321 on 10/10, with a daily increase of 107262 and an interval increase of 47323 [4][12][20]. - Open interest increased by 2486 from 10/9 to 10/10, but decreased by -71983 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. Spot Market Prices - Shandong market price decreased by -10 from 9/11 to 10/10, remaining at 3490 on 10/10 [4][12][20]. - East China market price remained unchanged at 3560 from 9/25 to 10/10 [4][12][20]. - South China market price decreased by -20 from 9/11 to 10/10, remaining at 3480 on 10/10 [4][12][20]. - North China market price decreased by -30 from 10/9 to 10/10 and -100 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - Northeast market price decreased by -10 from 10/9 to 10/10 and -30 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. Basis and Spread - Shandong basis increased by 17 from 10/9 to 10/10 and 42 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - East China basis decreased by -33 from 10/9 to 10/10 but increased by 92 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - South China basis increased by 7 from 10/9 to 10/10 and 52 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - 10 - 11 spread increased by 92 from 9/11 to 10/10 [4][12][20]. - 10 - 12 spread increased by 89 from 9/11 to 10/10 [4][12][20]. Crack Spread and Profit - Asphalt Brent crack spread increased by 51 from 10/9 to 10/10 but decreased by -42 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - Asphalt Marru profit increased by 46 from 10/9 to 10/10 but decreased by -38 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - Ordinary refinery comprehensive profit increased by 36 from 10/9 to 10/10 but decreased by -88 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - Marru - type refinery comprehensive profit increased by 39 from 10/9 to 10/10 but decreased by -25 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - Import profit (South Korea - East China) decreased by -2 from 10/9 to 10/10 and -49 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - Import profit (Singapore - South China) decreased by -3 from 10/9 to 10/10 and -13 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. Related Prices - Brent crude oil price decreased by -1.0 from 10/9 to 10/10 but increased by 0.7 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - Shandong gasoline market price decreased by -25 from 10/9 to 10/10 and -84 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - Shandong diesel market price decreased by -35 from 10/9 to 10/10 and -141 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - Shandong residue market price decreased by -100 from 10/9 to 10/10 and -90 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20].