铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | | 宁夏#72 内蒙#72 | 5180 5200 | 0 0 | -50 -50 | 5480 5550 | 主力合约 01合约 | 5436 5396 | -36 -44 | -58 -72 | | 硅铁自然块 | | | | | | | | | | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5200 | 0 | -50 | 5530 | 05合约 | 5508 | -64 | -82 | | | 陕西#72 | 5150 | 0 | -50 | 5450 | 09合约 | 5620 | -68 | -86 | | | 陕西#75 | 6100 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | 44 | 36 | 8 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No relevant content Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Profit - Provided the spot prices of various types of steel (including rebar and hot - rolled, cold - rolled coils) in different regions from September 26, 2025, to October 10, 2025, and the price changes. For example, the price of Beijing rebar remained unchanged, Shanghai rebar increased by 10, and Wuhan rebar increased by 40; among cold - rolled coils, the price of Le Cong cold - rolled coil decreased by 10 [1] Production and Inventory - No relevant content Basis and Spread - No relevant content

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current trading logic is that port pressure is transmitted to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and incremental stocking from new Lianhong units in the later stage, but the port will continuously cause reverse flow impacts. The current price in the futures market is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial later. Xingxing is expected to resume operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will affect the inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. It is still necessary to wait before bottom - fishing (import variables include India's purchase of Iranian products, unplanned maintenance, etc.) [2][3] - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The upstream two major oil companies and coal chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, and the social inventory remains flat. The downstream raw material and finished product inventories are also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The basis for the 09 contract is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differentials are fluctuating, with LD weakening. The maintenance in September is flat month - on - month, and the recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion situation and the US quotation. The pressure from new plants in 2025 is significant, and the commissioning of new plants should be monitored [3] - For polypropylene, the upstream two major oil companies and the middle - stream are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral, and the markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Against the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase significantly or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [3] - For PVC, the basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. The summer seasonal maintenance of northwest plants has a load center between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the implementation of new plant commissioning and the sustainability of exports. The recent near - term export orders have slightly declined. The coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance; the counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol and Polyolefins - The report provides price data for methanol and polyolefins on different dates including power coal futures, spot prices in different regions, CFR prices, import profits, basis, and MTO profits [2] Polyethylene - Price data for Northeast Asia ethylene, LL and LD in different regions, import profits, futures prices, basis, two - oil inventories, and warehouse receipts are provided from September 26 to October 10, 2025 [3] Polypropylene - Price data for Shandong propylene, Northeast Asia propylene, PP in different regions, PP in US dollars, export profits, futures prices, basis, two - oil inventories, and warehouse receipts are provided from September 26 to October 10, 2025 [3] PVC - Price data for northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, different production methods of PVC in different regions, import prices, export profits, comprehensive profits, and basis are provided from September 26 to October 10, 2025 [3]

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold latest price is 3974.50, change is -44.75 [1] - London Silver latest price is 50.76, change is 1.05 [1] - London Platinum latest price is 1686.00, change is 115.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is 1503.00, change is 268.00 [1] - WTI Crude latest price is 58.90, change is -2.61 [1] - LME Copper latest price is 10737.50, change is -130.00 [1] - US Dollar Index latest is 98.82, change is -0.58 [1] - Euro to US Dollar latest is 1.16, change is 0.01 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar latest is 1.34, change is 0.01 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen latest is 151.16, change is -1.94 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS latest is 1.75, change is -0.05 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX silver inventory latest is 16250.44, change is -113.86 [1] - SHFE silver inventory latest is 1169.06, change is -17.79 [1] - Gold ETF持仓 latest is 1017.16, change is 3.72 [1] - Silver ETF持仓 latest is 15443.76, change is -8.47 [1] - SGE silver inventory change is 0.00 [1] - SGE gold deferred fee payment direction change is 1.00 [1] - SGE silver deferred fee payment direction change is 1.00 [1] Group 3: Others - The data in the report are from Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [7]

【行情分析】： 玉米：新季玉米已陆续上市，国庆期间市场收购价大幅下调。短期来看，受粮源集中上市影响，玉米价格仍将维持弱势。中长期需重点关注产 区农户与贸易商的博弈，当前新季玉米产量增加、种植成本下滑，价格已逐步向种植成本靠拢；但鉴于当前绝对价格偏低且今年粮质较好，若 价格出现大幅回调，预计将触发农户抗价惜售情绪，进而带动玉米价格迎来反弹。 淀粉：节后，新季玉米陆续上市，企业普遍下调原料收购价格。但受成品淀粉制成成本偏高影响，淀粉端调价空间有限。短期来看，原料价格 走弱将带动淀粉价格预期下行，且随着企业开机率回升，库存大概率累积，这将进一步制约淀粉价格的反弹可能。中长期需重点关注下游消费 节奏变化，若淀粉价格出现大幅下跌，预计将刺激下游补货积极性提升，届时价格有望获得支撑。 白糖 现货价格 基差 进口利润 仓单 日期 柳州 南宁 昆明 柳州基差 泰国 巴西 郑盘 2025/09/26 5890 5780 5810 412 289 471 9464 2025/09/29 5890 5780 5810 411 255 436 8981 2025/09/30 5890 5780 5810 397 232 414 89 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Asphalt Morning Report" [2] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [3] Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Contracts - The closing prices of BU contracts on October 10, 2025, showed varying degrees of decline compared to previous days, with the BU01 contract dropping by 57 to 3248, and the BU11 contract down 47 to 3328 [4]. - The trading volume on October 10 was 323,321, an increase of 107,262 from the previous day and 47,323 from the previous week [4]. - The open interest on October 10 was 322,594, an increase of 2,486 from the previous day but a decrease of 71,983 from the previous week [4]. Spot Market - The market prices of asphalt in different regions showed different trends, with the Shandong market price remaining unchanged at 3490, the North China market price dropping by 30 to 3560, and the Northeast market price falling by 10 to 3800 [4]. - The basis and monthly spreads of asphalt also changed, with the Shandong basis (+80) increasing by 17 to 172, and the 10 - 11 monthly spread rising by 56 to 112 [4]. Crack Spreads and Profits - The asphalt - Brent crack spread on October 10 was 98, an increase of 51 from the previous day but a decrease of 42 from the previous week [4]. - The asphalt - Marrow profit on October 10 was 22, an increase of 46 from the previous day but a decrease of 38 from the previous week [4]. - The comprehensive profit of ordinary refineries on October 10 was 449, an increase of 36 from the previous day but a decrease of 88 from the previous week [4]. - The comprehensive profit of Marrow - type refineries on October 10 was 833, an increase of 39 from the previous day but a decrease of 25 from the previous week [4]. - The import profit from South Korea to East China on October 10 was - 225, a decrease of 2 from the previous day and 49 from the previous week [4]. - The import profit from Singapore to South China on October 10 was - 960, a decrease of 3 from the previous day and 13 from the previous week [4]. Related Commodity Prices - The price of Brent crude oil on October 10 was 65.2, a decrease of 1.0 from the previous day but an increase of 0.7 from the previous week [4]. - The market price of gasoline in Shandong on October 10 was 7433, a decrease of 25 from the previous day and 84 from the previous week [4]. - The market price of diesel in Shandong on October 10 was 3803, an increase of 60 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week [4]. - The market price of residue oil in Shandong on October 10 was 3743, a decrease of 10 from the previous day and 10 from the previous week [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - **Australian Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 784, up 5 daily and 4 weekly, with a discount to the futures price of 839.0, and an import profit of -48.91. PB powder price is 788, up 4 daily and 3 weekly, with a discount to the futures price of 836.0, and an import profit of -30.65. There are also data for other Australian iron ore varieties such as Mac powder, Jimbara powder, etc. [1] - **Brazilian Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed price is 822, up 1 daily and 2 weekly, with a discount to the futures price of 837.3, and an import profit of -26.60. There are also data for Brazilian coarse IOC6, Brazilian coarse SSFG, etc. [1] - **Other Regions' Iron Ore**: Ukrainian concentrate powder price is 913, up 3 daily and 3 weekly, with a discount to the futures price of 1000.6. There are also data for 61% Indian powder, Karara concentrate powder, etc. [1] Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 contract price is 795.0, up 4.5 daily and 5.0 weekly, with a monthly spread of -42.0 and a spread of 41.0, down 0.1 daily and 1.7 weekly. i2605 contract price is 774.5, up 3.5 daily and 5.0 weekly, with a monthly spread of 20.5 and a spread of 61.5, up 0.9 daily and down 1.7 weekly. i2609 contract price is 753.0, up 2.5 daily and 2.5 weekly, with a monthly spread of 21.5 and a spread of 83.0, up 1.9 daily and 0.8 weekly. [1] - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 contract price is 101.82, up 0.31 daily and 0.31 weekly, with a monthly spread of -4.01 and a spread of -28.6, up 2.9 daily and down 4.1 weekly. FE05 contract price is 99.84, up 0.11 daily and 0.11 weekly, with a monthly spread of 1.98 and a spread of -32.2, up 4.9 daily and down 5.0 weekly. FE09 contract price is 97.81, up 0.09 daily and 0.09 weekly, with a monthly spread of 2.03 and a spread of -36.4, up 70.2 daily and 49.8 weekly. [1]

Report Information - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [2] Key Figures BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume**: On October 10, the closing price of the main contract was 11,220, down 102 from the previous day and 325 from the previous week; the trading volume was 71,527, down 3,340 from the previous day and 12,158 from the previous week; the open interest of the main contract was 28,858, down 2,555 from the previous day and 22,296 from the previous week; the warrant quantity was 8,120, up 420 from the previous day and down 1,130 from the previous week [3]. - **Price Difference**: The spot - futures basis of cis - butadiene rubber was 130, up 105 from the previous day; the 10 - 11 month spread was 155, up 120 from the previous day; the 11 - 12 month spread was 45, up 5 from the previous day [3]. - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,350, unchanged from the previous day and down 230 from the previous week; the Transfar market price was 11,250, unchanged from the previous day and down 250 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,500, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 from the previous week [3]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 174, up 102 from the previous day and 295 from the previous week; the on - disk processing profit was 44, down 3 from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week; the import profit was - 81,738, down 64 from the previous day and up 1,493 from the previous week; the export profit was 163, up 7 from the previous day and 188 from the previous week [3]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Price**: On October 10, the Shandong market price was 8,800, down 100 from the previous day and 515 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 8,750, down 50 from the previous day and 425 from the previous week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 8,800, down 100 from the previous day and 350 from the previous week [3]. - **Profit**: The carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 6, down 50 from the previous day and 352 from the previous week; the import profit was 187, down 56 from the previous day and 415 from the previous week; the export profit was - 816, up 48 from the previous day [3]. Downstream Products - **Profit**: The cis - butadiene production profit was 44, down 3 from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week; the styrene - butadiene production profit was 1,025, up 75 from the previous day and down 38 from the previous week; the ABS production profit was N/A; the SBS (791 - H) production profit was 930, up 70 from the previous day and down 55 from the previous week [3]. Variety Spreads - **Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was - 13,543, up 2,455 from the previous day and 22,041 from the previous week; the NR - BR spread was - 16,508, up 2,440 from the previous day and 22,216 from the previous week; the Thai mixed - cis - butadiene spread was 3,400, down 100 from the previous day and up 130 from the previous week; the 3L - styrene - butadiene spread was 3,400, unchanged from the previous day and up 300 from the previous week; the cis - butadiene standard - non - standard price spread was 350, up 100 from the previous day and 170 from the previous week; the styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day [3].

纯碱现货：重碱河北交割库现货报价在1140左右，送到沙河1160左右 纯碱产业：工厂库存累积，交割库小累，整体累库 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm（折5mm） 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1190 1241 1190 1150 1099 1103 1207 1334 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 10合约 11合约 01合约 05合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(10/10） 昨日(10/9） 一周前(9/30） 一月前(9/10） (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃：河北低价 ...

废钢早报 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/09/26 | 2263 | 2327 | 2085 | 2260 | 2291 | 2165 | | 2025/09/29 | 2258 | 2311 | 2079 | 2257 | 2282 | 2151 | | 2025/09/30 | 2256 | 2311 | 2077 | 2255 | 2282 | 2150 | | 2025/10/09 | 2249 | 2317 | 2070 | 2253 | 2278 | 2152 | | 2025/10/10 | 2251 | 2323 | 2074 | 2258 | 2277 | 2156 | | 环比 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/10/13 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结 ...