Report Information - Report Title: Scrap Steel Morning Report - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center - Date: November 4, 2025 [1] Regional Scrap Steel Prices and Changes Price Table | Date | East China | North China | Central China | South China | Northeast China | Southwest China | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/10/28 | 2238 | 2302 | 2054 | 2235 | 2261 | 2129 | | 2025/10/29 | 2238 | 2305 | 2054 | 2245 | 2261 | 2129 | | 2025/10/30 | 2238 | 2304 | 2056 | 2243 | 2261 | 2129 | | 2025/10/31 | 2239 | 2303 | 2056 | 2242 | 2261 | 2129 | | 2025/11/03 | 2234 | 2298 | 2053 | 2235 | 2261 | 2121 | |环比 | -5 | -5 | -3 | -7 | 0 | -8 | [2] Summary - The scrap steel prices in different regions showed various trends from October 28 to November 3, 2025 - In East China, the price decreased by 5 from October 28 to November 3 - In North China, the price also decreased by 5 during the same period - In Central China, the price dropped by 3 - In South China, the price declined by 7 - In Northeast China, the price remained unchanged - In Southwest China, the price decreased by 8 [2]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - In the short - term, corn spot prices will be under pressure due to concentrated grain listing; in the long - term, after the first peak of grain sales, prices may rebound as farmers may hold back sales. Starch prices follow raw material prices in the short - term and are pressured by high inventory, while downstream consumption rhythm is key in the long - term [3] - International sugar prices are pressured by Brazilian supply, and domestic Zheng sugar is stronger than the foreign market in the short - term. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, domestic sugar costs may be broken through [5] - Cotton prices are in a range, and the downside is limited if there are no major macro - risks. Attention should be paid to demand changes [7] - For eggs, supply pressure is partially relieved and demand increases slightly, driving a small price rebound. Future focus is on the chicken culling rhythm [13] - Apple prices are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short - term as new - season production is reduced and quality is affected by weather [15] - For pigs, short - term price rebounds are intermittent, and mid - term supply pressure remains. Key factors are production and inventory reduction paths, along with attention to slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15] Group 3: Corn/Starch Price Data - From Oct 28 to Nov 3, corn prices in Changchun remained stable, while in Jinzhou and Weifang they increased by 20 and 70 respectively, and in Shekou decreased by 20. Starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained unchanged [2] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn spot prices are pressured by concentrated grain listing; starch prices follow raw materials and are pressured by high inventory. Long - term: Corn prices may rebound after the first sales peak; starch prices depend on downstream consumption [3] Group 4: Sugar Price Data - From Oct 28 to Nov 3, sugar spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming generally decreased, and import profits also declined [4][16] Market Analysis - International market: Brazilian supply pressures prices, and ethanol cost provides support. Domestic market: Zheng sugar is stronger in the short - term, and domestic sugar costs may be broken through in the long - term [5] Group 5: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From Oct 28 to Nov 3, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 25, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 101 [6] Market Analysis - Cotton prices are in a range, and the downside is limited without major macro - risks. Attention should be paid to demand changes [7] Group 6: Eggs Price Data - From Oct 28 to Nov 3, egg prices in Hebei and Liaoning decreased by 0.23 and 0.22 respectively, and the basis increased by 17 [13] Market Analysis - Supply pressure is partially relieved, and demand increases slightly, driving a small price rebound. Future focus is on the chicken culling rhythm [13] Group 7: Apples Price Data - From Oct 28 to Nov 3, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8000, and the basis for different months changed [14][15] Market Analysis - New - season production is reduced, and prices are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short - term due to weather - affected quality [15] Group 8: Pigs Price Data - From Oct 28 to Nov 3, pig prices in different regions decreased, and the basis decreased by 220 [15] Market Analysis - Short - term price rebounds are intermittent, and mid - term supply pressure remains. Key factors are production and inventory reduction paths, along with attention to slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15]

、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担任何责任。 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 769.0 3.0 0.0 63.0 -86.0 25省终端可用天数 26.1 0.9 6.2 5.2 8.5 秦皇岛5000 677.0 1.0 -1.0 62.0 -78.0 25省终端供煤 531.0 -5.1 -77.5 -109.0 -91.8 广州港5500 805.0 0.0 0.0 40.0 -105.0 北方港库存 2156.0 -25.0 -57.0 23.0 -207.4 鄂尔多斯5500 550.0 10.0 0.0 40.0 -80.0 北方锚地船舶 66.0 -7.0 -35.0 9.0 22.0 大同5500 600.0 10.0 0.0 35.0 -110.0 北方港调入量 156.8 -15.2 -30.3 -19.3 -20.1 榆林6000 682.0 0.0 0.0 40.0 -138.0 北方港吞吐量 149.8 -16.2 -36.4 0.0 -29.9 榆林6200 710. ...

s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | 指标 | 9/30 | 10/28 | 10/30 | 10/31 | 11/3 | 日度变化 | 팀 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基差&月差 | 山东基差(+80)(弘润) | 126 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 7 | | | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 66 | 121 | 106 | 106 | 117 | 11 | | | | 华南县差(佛山库) | 56 | 101 | 126 | 146 | 87 | -59 | | | | 12-01 | 17 | 10 | 15 | 10 | 0 | -10 | | | | 12-03 | 5 | -12 | -6 | -16 | -32 | -16 | | | | 01-02 | -5 | -7 | -5 | -12 | -13 | - 1 | | | | BU主力合约(01) | 3424 | 3279 | 3254 | 3244 | 3233 | -11 | | | | 成交量 | 229798 | 225747 | 212 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoint - No core viewpoint information is provided in the report. Group 3: Summary of Different Categories Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder is priced at 785, down 15 daily and 4 weekly; PB powder is 788, down 15 daily and 4 weekly; Mac powder is 786, down 9 daily and 1 weekly; Jinbuba powder is 740, down 12 daily and 20 weekly; Mixed powder is 748, down 14 daily and 9 weekly; Super special powder is 692, down 16 daily and 17 weekly; Roy Hill powder is 775, down 15 daily and 4 weekly [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian blend is 824, down 16 daily and 5 weekly; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is 790, down 15 daily and 3 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG is 795, down 15 daily and 3 weekly [1]. - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate powder is 895, down 15 daily and 16 weekly; 61% Indian powder is 729, down 12 daily and 20 weekly; 57% Indian powder is 627, down 16 daily and 17 weekly; Atlas powder is 743, down 14 daily and 9 weekly; KUMBA powder is 847, down 15 daily and 4 weekly; Carara concentrate powder is 895, down 15 daily and 16 weekly [1]. - **Domestic Iron Ore**: Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 1026, down 10 daily and 1 weekly [1]. Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 is 782.5, down 17.5 daily and 4 weekly; i2605 is 760.5, down 16 daily and 3 weekly; i2609 is 740.5, down 14.5 daily and 2 weekly [1]. - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 is 103.00, down 0.35 daily and up 2.30 weekly; FE05 is 100.65, down 0.36 daily and up 2.11 weekly; FE09 is 98.55, down 0.41 daily and up 2.01 weekly [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report No explicit core view is presented in the provided content. The report mainly offers data on the market situation of synthetic rubber, including price, volume, basis, and profit information for BR and BD. 3. Summary by Related Catalog BR (Cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber) - **Futures Information**: On November 3, the BR主力合约(12) price was 10360, down 225 from the previous day and 445 from the previous week. The open interest was 37796, down 3692 from the previous day and 10822 from the previous week. The trading volume was 149850, up 31566 from the previous day and 37414 from the previous week. The warrant quantity remained at 8580, with no daily or weekly change. The long - short ratio was 22.03, down 2 from the previous day and 6 from the previous week [3]. - **Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety Spread**: The cis - butadiene basis was 140, down 25 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week. The styrene - butadiene basis was 740, up 125 from the previous day. The 12 - 01 spread was 30, up 45 from the previous week. The 01 - 02 spread was 5, up 15 from the previous day and 15 from the previous week. The RU - BR spread was 4735, up 235 from the previous day and 180 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was 1840, up 195 from the previous day and 115 from the previous week [3]. - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 10500, down 250 from the previous day and 450 from the previous week. The Transfar market price was 10350, down 250 from the previous day and 550 from the previous week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 10500, down 500 from the previous day and 500 from the previous week. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1450, with no daily change and down 25 from the previous week. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1700, with no daily or weekly change [3]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 961, up 10 from the previous day and 320 from the previous week. The import profit was - 1666, down 260 from the previous day and 277 from the previous week. The export profit was 2315, up 227 from the previous day and 419 from the previous week [3]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 7195, down 255 from the previous day and 755 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 7200, down 200 from the previous day and 700 from the previous week. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7200, down 300 from the previous day and 1000 from the previous week. The CFR China price was 850, down 60 from the previous day and 110 from the previous week [3]. - **Profit**: The carbon - four extraction profit was not available for calculation on November 3. The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1376, down 312 from the previous day and 742 from the previous week. The import profit was 215, up 276 from the previous day and 167 from the previous week. The export profit was - 294, up 37 from the previous day and - 193 from the previous week. The Japanese production profit was 1238, down 275 from the previous day and 275 from the previous week. The ABS production profit and SBS production profit data were partially unavailable [3].

Group 1: General Information - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the implied volatilities of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [2] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility, a larger difference indicates that the implied volatility is relatively higher than historical volatility, and a smaller difference means the opposite [2] Group 2: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Charts - There are charts showing the implied volatility (IV), historical volatility (HV), and the difference (IV - HV) for various financial and commodity options, including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, silver, gold, soybean meal, corn, sugar, cotton, methanol, rubber, iron ore, PTA, copper, crude oil, aluminum, PVC, rebar, zinc, rapeseed oil, palm oil, etc [3] Group 3: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Quantiles - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current implied volatility level of a variety in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low. Volatility spread is the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility [4] - There are rankings of implied volatility quantiles and historical volatility quantiles for different options such as 300 - stock index, PTA, 50ETF, corn, PVC, sugar, etc [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current valuation of the December contract is moderately high. With multiple price increase announcements and long - term contract signings from November to December as positive drivers, it is recommended to adopt a "buy - on - dips" strategy, waiting for next week or continue to trade based on the PA price cut/MSK's flat opening [3]. - The February contract's valuation is difficult to anchor, with high uncertainty. It is expected to follow the December contract's trend in the next month [3]. - The April contract is for the off - season. It will fluctuate within a narrow range under the current peak - season logic and face greater supply pressure next year. A "sell - on - rallies" strategy is recommended [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - For EC2512, the closing price was 1804.0, down 2.16%, with a basis of - 491.3, trading volume of 59519, and an open interest of 31365, an increase of 1259 [2]. - For EC2602, the closing price was 1553.6, down 1.86%, with a basis of - 240.9, trading volume of 11387, and an open interest of 18455, an increase of 2222 [2]. - For EC2604, the closing price was 1161.1, down 1.26%, with a basis of 151.6, trading volume of 4119, and an open interest of 14910, an increase of 450 [2]. - For EC2606, the closing price was 1379.6, down 1.69%, with a basis of - 66.9, trading volume of 366, and an open interest of 1521, an increase of 110 [2]. - For EC2608, the closing price was 1471.1, down 1.10%, with a basis of - 158.4, trading volume of 226, and an open interest of 1352, an increase of 23 [2]. - For EC2610, the closing price was 1132.0, down 0.04%, with a basis of 180.7, trading volume of 442, and an open interest of 1280, an increase of 218 [2]. Month - spread Data - The EC2512 - 2504 month - spread was 642.9, down 25.0 day - on - day and up 21.6 week - on - week [2]. - The EC2512 - 2602 month - spread was 250.4, down 10.4 day - on - day and up 39.3 week - on - week [2]. - The EC2502 - 2604 month - spread was 392.5, down 14.6 day - on - day and down 17.7 week - on - week [2]. Spot Index Data - The SCFIS (European Line) index on October 27, 2025, was 1312.71, up 15.11% from the previous period [2]. - The SCFI (European Line) on October 31, 2025, was 1344 dollars/TEU, up 8.82% from the previous period [2]. - The CCFI on October 31, 2025, was 1323.81, up 2.37% from the previous period [2]. - The NCFI on October 31, 2025, was 965.62, up 17.43% from the previous period [2]. Fundamental Analysis - In terms of fundamentals, in week 49, there was one additional sail - canceling, and two ships postponed departure. The average weekly capacity in November and December is 290,000 and 336,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as sail - canceling, it is 286,000 and 313,000 TEU. The capacity in week 45/46/47/48 of November was 310,000/250,000/277,000/325,000 TEU respectively, with greater pressure in the second half of November [2]. - In the first half of November, OA and MSK had no pressure in receiving goods, while the PA alliance was short of goods and led the price cut [2]. Recent European Line Quotation - Downstream customers are finalizing the cabin bookings for early November (week 45). In the first half of November, the PA alliance cut prices the most, to 1700 - 1900 US dollars, GEMIN to 2100 - 2200 US dollars, and OA to 2250 US dollars, with an average of about 2050 US dollars (equivalent to 1430 points on the futures market) [4]. Related News - On October 31, Israel attacked Gaza for the third consecutive night, impacting the cease - fire agreement. The cease - fire agreement mediated by the US has been in effect for three weeks, but issues such as Hamas' disarmament and Israel's withdrawal schedule from Gaza remain unsolved [5]. - On November 1, Qatar warned that Gaza might fall into a "neither war nor peace" situation, calling on the international community to intervene [5]. - On November 3, the Houthi armed forces stated that they would strongly respond to any Israeli aggression [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil maintained a volatile trend this week. On Friday, news of a potential US military attack on Venezuela led to a rise in oil prices, and on Sunday, OPEC+ confirmed a 137,000 - barrel - per - day production increase in December. With short - term geopolitical risks emerging again, but significant pressure on crude oil supply release due to factors like Brazil's P78投产, OPEC's further production increase, and high US total production, the crude oil market maintains a weak pattern [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily News - OPEC+ representatives said that OPEC+ members will approve a small production increase in December, restoring about 137,000 barrels per day of suspended production, consistent with the previous small - scale production increase in October and November [3]. - Peskov stated that there is no immediate need for a "Putin - Trump meeting" and that the details need careful preparation [4]. - The total number of US oil rigs as of the week ending October 31 was 414, down from 420 in the previous week [4]. - US media reported that the US is about to launch a military attack on Venezuela, causing international oil prices to soar. Venezuela's current oil export volume is about 700,000 to 900,000 barrels per day [4]. - Indian Oil Corporation bought 5 cargoes of Russian ESPO crude for December delivery from non - sanctioned entities at a price close to the Dubai quote [5]. Inventory - In the week ending October 24, US crude oil exports increased by 158,000 barrels per day to 4.361 million barrels per day [5]. - US domestic crude oil production increased by 15,000 barrels to 13.644 million barrels per day in the week ending October 24 [5]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.858 million barrels to 416 million barrels, a decrease of 1.62% [5]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.753 million barrels per day, a 0.91% decrease from the same period last year [5]. - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 533,000 barrels to 409.1 million barrels, an increase of 0.13% in the week ending October 24 [5]. - US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.051 million barrels per day in the week ending October 24, a decrease of 867,000 barrels per day from the previous week [5]. - US EIA gasoline inventories decreased by 5.941 million barrels in the week ending October 24, compared with an expected decrease of 1.903 million barrels and a previous decrease of 2.147 million barrels [5]. - US EIA refined oil inventories decreased by 3.362 million barrels in the week ending October 24, compared with an expected decrease of 1.735 million barrels and a previous decrease of 1.479 million barrels [5]. - From October 23 - 30, the operating rate of domestic major refineries decreased, while that of local refineries increased slightly. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated, with local refinery gasoline inventories rising and diesel inventories decreasing. The profits of both major and local refineries declined [6]. Weekly View - In the first 26 days of October, Russia's average daily seaborne oil product exports were 1.89 million barrels. Preliminary data from Kpler showed that Russia's average daily seaborne crude oil exports in October were 5.198 million barrels per day, a decrease of 460,000 barrels per day month - on - month and an increase of 321,000 barrels per day year - on - year [6]. - This week, the total global on - land oil inventory increased slightly, while the total floating storage inventory decreased slightly. Affected by a significant decline in net crude oil imports, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.858 million barrels, and gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Refinery profits in Europe and the US rebounded [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View The report presents the basis data of various commodities as of October 31, 2025, including macro, black, energy - chemical, non - ferrous, and agricultural products, aiming to show the price relationship between spot and futures of different commodities [2][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - IF: Spot price was 4641, down 69. Basis was 9, corresponding to the 2512 contract, with a basis deviation of 0.26 [2]. - IH: Spot price was 3012, down 35. Basis was - 4, corresponding to the 2512 contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.56 [2]. - IC: Spot price was 7331, down 55. Basis was 89, corresponding to the 2512 contract, with a basis deviation of 0.75 [2]. Black - For example, Shanghai's rebar spot price was 3230, unchanged. Basis was 124, corresponding to the 2601 contract, with a basis deviation of 0.48 [3]. - Tianjin Port's coke spot price was 1710, unchanged. Basis was - 67, corresponding to the 2601 contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.45 [3]. Energy - Chemical - Port methanol spot price was 2125, unchanged. Basis was - 55, corresponding to a third - party provided contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.88 [3]. - East China's PTA spot price was 4514, up 16. Basis was - 72, corresponding to a third - party provided contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.68 [3]. Non - Ferrous - Copper spot price was 87540, down 510. Basis was 0, corresponding to a third - party provided contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.26 [4]. - Aluminum spot price was 21280, up 80. Basis was 0, corresponding to a third - party provided contract, with a basis deviation of 0.27 [4]. Agricultural Products - Jiangsu's 43% soybean meal spot price was 2970, up 30. Basis was - 51, corresponding to the 2601 contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.21 [5]. - Jiangsu's first - grade soybean oil spot price was 8460, up 60. Basis was 332, corresponding to the 2601 contract, with a basis deviation of 0.25 [5].