铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5180 | -50 | -50 | 5480 | 主力合约 | 5472 | -22 | -22 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5200 | -50 | -50 | 5550 | 01合约 | 5440 | -28 | -28 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5200 | -50 | -50 | 5530 | 05合约 | 5572 | -18 | -18 | | | 陕西#72 | 5150 | -50 | -50 | 5450 | 09合约 | 5688 | -18 | -18 | | | 陕西#75 | 6100 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | 8 | -28 | -28 | | ...

Group 1: Report Core Information - The report is an iron ore morning report from the research center's black team dated October 10, 2025, with data sourced from MYSTEEL [1] Group 2: Spot Market Data Australian Mainstream Iron Ore - Newman powder: latest price 779, daily change +4, weekly change -13, discounted to the futures price 833.5, import profit -40.33 [1] - PB powder: latest price 784, daily change +6, weekly change -11, discounted to the futures price 831.6, import profit -22.02 [1] - Mac powder: latest price 775, daily change +7, weekly change -11, discounted to the futures price 846.5, import profit -9.93 [1] - Jinbuba: latest price 754, daily change +6, weekly change -12, discounted to the futures price 847.4, import profit -3.99 [1] - Mixed powder: latest price 750, daily change +7, weekly change -12, discounted to the futures price 880.8, import profit 5.85 [1] - Super special powder: latest price 712, daily change +6, weekly change -15, discounted to the futures price 929.9, import profit 15.79 [1] - Carraway concentrate: latest price 910, daily change +4, weekly change -12, discounted to the futures price 933.8 [1] - Roy Hill powder: latest price 771, daily change +14, weekly change -3, discounted to the futures price 848.7, import profit 3.48 [1] Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore - Brazilian mixed: latest price 821, daily change +6, weekly change -9, discounted to the futures price 836.3, import profit -15.39 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6: latest price 788, daily change +6, weekly change -11, discounted to the futures price 864.4 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG: latest price 793, daily change +6, weekly change -11 [1] Other Types of Iron Ore - Ukrainian concentrate: latest price 910, daily change +4, weekly change -12, discounted to the futures price 992.7 [1] - 61% Indian powder: latest price 743, daily change +6, weekly change -12 [1] - KUMBA powder: latest price 843, daily change +6, weekly change -11, discounted to the futures price 834.3 [1] - 57% Indian powder: latest price 645, daily change +9, weekly change -12 [1] - Atlas powder: latest price 745, daily change +7, weekly change -12 [1] - Domestic ore (Tangshan iron concentrate): latest price 1007, daily change +5, weekly change +5, discounted to the futures price 894.0 [1] Group 3: Futures Market Data Dalian Commodity Exchange Contracts - i2601: latest price 790.5, daily change +10.0, weekly change -15.0, monthly spread -40.0, latest value 41.1, daily change -3.4, weekly change +2.9 [1] - i2605: latest price 771.0, daily change +11.5, weekly change -14.5, monthly spread 19.5, latest value 60.6, daily change -4.9, weekly change +2.4 [1] - i2609: latest price 750.5, daily change +10.0, weekly change -14.5, monthly spread 20.5, latest value 81.1, daily change -3.4, weekly change +2.4 [1] Singapore Exchange Contracts - FE01: latest price 101.51, daily change +0.17, weekly change +0.27, monthly spread -3.79, latest value -31.6, daily change -7.1, weekly change -7.0 [1] - FE05: latest price 99.73, daily change +0.20, weekly change +0.27, monthly spread 1.78, latest value -37.1, daily change -7.4, weekly change -9.1 [1] - FE09: latest price 97.72, daily change +0.24, weekly change +0.28, monthly spread 2.01, latest value -106.6, daily change -2.4, weekly change -19.1 [1]

、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担任何责任。 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 705.0 0.0 -2.0 18.0 -165.0 25省终端可用天数 26.7 -0.7 6.7 5.8 9.1 秦皇岛5000 613.0 0.0 -3.0 9.0 -162.0 25省终端供煤 531.6 -0.5 -77.0 -108.5 -91.3 广州港5500 765.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 -150.0 北方港库存 2313.0 74.0 201.0 293.0 95.5 鄂尔多斯5500 485.0 0.0 -25.0 15.0 -155.0 北方锚地船舶 88.0 12.0 22.0 25.0 13.0 大同5500 535.0 -5.0 -30.0 10.0 -185.0 北方港调入量 138.1 -19.7 -31.2 9.1 -9.1 榆林6000 642.0 0.0 0.0 40.0 -199.0 北方港吞吐量 120.2 -13.5 -48.1 -15.9 -40.0 榆林6200 6 ...

纯碱现货：重碱河北交割库现货报价在1140左右，送到沙河1170左右 纯碱产业：工厂库存累积，交割库小累，整体累库 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm（折5mm） 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1194 1241 1194 1150 1100 1109 1218 1338 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 10合约 11合约 01合约 05合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(10/9） 昨日(9/30） 一周前(9/29） 一月前(9/9） (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃：河北低价大板 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the expected impact of the Gaza ceasefire on market prices, predicting a significant downward trend, although the resumption of shipping through the Red Sea may take 2-3 months [3][26] - The report notes potential geopolitical risks between the US and Iran that could affect market dynamics [26] - There are multiple upward drivers anticipated from October to December, suggesting a complex market outlook [26] Market Data Summary - Recent futures prices show a decline, with EC2510 at 1110.6 (-0.39%), EC2512 at 1731.9 (-1.39%), and EC2602 at 1642.8 (-1.45%) [25] - The SCF index for the European line has decreased by 6.60% from the previous period, indicating a significant drop in shipping rates [25] - The CCFI and NCFI indices also reflect downward trends, with decreases of 4.69% and 8.85% respectively [25] Pricing Trends - The average price for the European line in weeks 40-41 was reported at 1450 USD, with specific rates for different shipping companies ranging from 1300 to 1600 USD [26] - A price increase announcement for week 42 suggests a target range of 1800-2000 USD, aimed more at stabilizing prices rather than actual increases [26] - The report indicates that the lowest price for YML was recorded at 1300 USD, marking a significant low for the year [26] Shipping Index Trends - The SCFI index shows a seasonal trend with fluctuations in shipping rates over the past years, indicating a complex pricing environment [38] - The TCI index for various routes also reflects seasonal variations, suggesting that shipping costs are influenced by both demand and geopolitical factors [39][40]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - Not provided in the given content 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from September 24 to September 30, 2025, including Beijing, Shanghai, and other locations for both threaded steel and hot - rolled and cold - rolled steel. The price changes for threaded steel in some regions are 0, - 10, and 0 for different locations, while for hot - rolled and cold - rolled steel, the changes are 0, - 30, - 50, - 30, - 20, and 0 for different locations [1] Production and Inventory - Not provided in the given content Basis and Spread - Not provided in the given content

废钢早报 價in 研究中心黑色团队 2025/10/09 华东 स्क 中部 东北 日期 华南 西南 2025/09/245 | 2263 2083 2293 2171 ~ 2330 原点 2262 (图H 2293 2025/09/25 2264 2329 2085 2263 2165 2025/09/26 2291 2263 2327 2085 2260 2165 2025/09/29 2258 2311 2079 2257 2282 2151 2025/09/30 |容 2256 2311 2077 2255 原 2282 2150 ~ 脂 2 环比 -2 0 -2 -2 0 -1 沙钢重三价格 (含税) 镇江鸿泰剪切料价格（不含税） ◆ 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ● 2025 ● 2022 ● 2023 ● 2024 ● 2025 3,600 4,200元/吨 3,900 3,300 3,600 3,000 3,300 2,700 3,000 2,400 2,700 2,100 2,400 2,100 1,800 品周H 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月1 ...

Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields and Changes: The yields and changes (latest, weekly, monthly, yearly) of 10 - year treasury bonds in various economies like the US, UK, France, etc. were presented. For example, the US 10 - year treasury yield on 2025/09/30 was 4.151, with a latest change of 0.011, a weekly change of 0.044, a monthly change of - 0.111, and a yearly change of 0.421 [2]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields and Changes: Similar to the 10 - year bonds, the yields and changes of 2 - year treasury bonds in economies such as the US, UK, Germany were provided. For instance, the US 2 - year treasury yield on 2025/09/30 was 3.630, with a latest change of - 0.010, a weekly change of 0.060, a monthly change of 0.070, and a yearly change of 0.080 [2]. Dollar - to - Major Emerging Economies Currency Exchange Rates - Rates and Changes: The exchange rates and their changes (latest, weekly, monthly, yearly) of the US dollar against major emerging economies' currencies like the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, etc. were shown. For example, the dollar - to - Brazilian real exchange rate on 2025/09/30 was 5.322 with a latest change of - 0.01% [2]. Major Economies' Stock Indices - Indices and Changes: The values and changes (latest, weekly, monthly, yearly) of major economies' stock indices including the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, etc. were given. For example, the S&P 500 index value on 2025/09/30 was 6688.460, with a latest change of 0.41%, a weekly change of 0.47%, a monthly change of 4.25%, and a yearly change of 16.67% [2]. Credit Bond Indices - Indices and Changes: The changes (latest, weekly, monthly, yearly) of credit bond indices such as the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index were presented. For example, the latest change of the US investment - grade credit bond index was - 0.06% [2]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing Prices and Changes: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were reported. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3882.78 with a 0.52% increase [3]. Valuation - PE Ratios and Changes: The PE (TTM) ratios and their环比 changes of indices like the CSI 300, SSE 50 were provided. For example, the PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 14.22 with a环比 change of 0.03 [3]. Risk Premium - Calculation and Changes: The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) and their环比 changes of indices such as the S&P 500, German DAX were shown. For example, the risk premium of the S&P 500 was - 0.56 with a环比 change of - 0.03 [3]. Fund Flows - Values and Averages: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, etc. were given. For example, the latest fund flow value of A - shares was - 288.47, and the 5 - day average was - 46.80 [3]. Trading Volume - Values and Changes: The latest trading volume values and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were reported. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 21814.11 with a环比 change of 199.50 [3]. Basis and Spread - Basis and Magnitude: The basis and magnitude of the main index futures contracts like IF, IH, IC were presented. For example, the basis of IF was - 22.69 with a magnitude of - 0.49% [3]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data Closing Prices and Changes - Closing Prices and Percentage Changes: The closing prices and percentage changes of treasury bond futures T00, TF00, etc. were reported. All had a 0.00% change [4]. Funding Rates - Rates and Daily Changes: The funding rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) and their daily changes (in BP) were provided. For example, R001 was 1.5331% with a daily change of - 34.00 BP [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Grasberg's unexpected copper production cut will change the global copper supply pattern in the next 12 - 15 months. With no significant increase in adjusted copper mine supply this year and no increase next year without the resumption of the Panama mine, the contradiction at the mine end is further intensified. The market sentiment and capital allocation for copper are expected to turn around, and the medium - term allocation value of copper is still favored [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable. Pay attention to demand, hold at low prices under the low - inventory pattern, and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. - Zinc prices fluctuated this week. The short - term unilateral trend is weakly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see; for internal - external arbitrage, partial profit - taking can be considered for internal - external positive arbitrage [2]. - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel are generally weak. In the short term, the macro - aspect follows the anti - involution expectation, and the policy side has a certain motivation to support prices [3][4]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend next week, in the range of 16,800 - 17,000 [7]. - For tin, the short - term domestic fundamentals maintain a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, short lightly when the price is above 275,000 yuan/ton, and hold near the cost line in the medium - long term [10]. - The short - and medium - term supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a balanced state, and the long - term price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [11]. - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuates. The price elasticity is high after the supply - side disturbance speculation is realized, and the downward price support is strong before the disturbance occurs [11]. Summary by Metals Copper - Freeport's Indonesian subsidiary's泥石流 accident postponed Grasberg's resumption of production, reducing the 2026 copper guidance by about 35% (equivalent to a reduction of about 270,000 tons of copper and about 1.04 million ounces of gold). The adjusted copper mine supply has no significant increase this year and next year without the resumption of the Panama mine [1]. - Fund long positions are gradually increasing, but macro and bulk CTA funds are still focused on precious metals. The gold - copper ratio is at a low historical quantile. With the structural gap in copper fundamentals emerging, the market sentiment and capital allocation for copper are expected to improve [1]. - Copper currently benefits from the global fiscal and monetary double - loose policy, and there is still room for subsequent interest rate cuts. It is advisable to consider laying out medium - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500, or selling put options below 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - Supply has increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increase from January to August. Downstream开工 has improved, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules has stabilized. Pay attention to whether overseas demand stabilizes after the decline [1]. - In September, inventory decreased slightly, and it is expected to increase seasonally in October. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand [1]. Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated. The domestic TC decreased further, and the imported TC increased further. From the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, domestic zinc mines will be marginally tighter, while overseas mine production increased more than expected in the second quarter. In August, China imported 460,000 tons of zinc ore, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43% [2]. - In October, smelting production recovered slightly month - on - month. When the domestic zinc mine processing fee declines, attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on total profits [2]. - Domestic demand is seasonally weak, with limited growth but certain resilience; overseas, European demand is average, and some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees [2]. - Domestic social inventory fluctuates, and overseas LME inventory decreases. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further diverge, and the export window is approaching. Some smelters and traders are preparing for exports [2]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - For nickel and stainless steel, supply is expected to see a slight resumption of production by steel mills. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. Nickel - iron prices remain stable, and chromium - iron prices for stainless steel increase slightly [3][4]. - Nickel inventories in Xifu area increased slightly, and stainless steel inventories in Xifu area decreased. Warehouse receipts for both decreased slightly [3][4]. Lead - This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weaker year - on - year. The expansion of recycling plants has led to a shortage of waste batteries. With low profits, recycled lead maintains low - level production. From April to August, the operation of concentrate mines increased, but due to smelting profits, supply fell short of demand, and TC quotes declined in a chaotic manner [7]. - On the demand side, the inventory of battery products is high. During the National Day holiday, battery production increased, and demand improved slightly. The refined - scrap price difference is - 75, and the long - term supply of recycled lead in Henan is tight. LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2,000 tons [7]. - In August, primary lead supply remained flat, and recycled lead production decreased. In September, both production cuts and resumptions occurred in recycled lead, and primary lead supply is expected to remain flat. Demand has improved slightly, but inventory is at a high level, and the overall inventory reduction needs to be verified [7]. Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the processing fee for tin mines is at a low level, and some domestic smelters have cut production. Yunnan Tin had maintenance in early September for about 45 days. Overseas, imports from Wa State were still low in August but gradually recovered from late September to October, and it is expected to maintain above 600 metal tons. Indonesia's tin export is expected to resume in mid - to late September [10]. - On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, mainly supported by rigid demand. When prices declined rapidly this week, downstream replenishment willingness was strong, and combined with National Day holiday replenishment, inventory reduction was significant. Overseas, Indonesia is gradually recovering, and LME inventory has rebounded from a low level [10]. Industrial Silicon - This week, leading enterprises in Xinjiang continued to resume production, with the latest number of operating furnaces reaching 82, an increase of 5 from last week. Currently, the operation in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable, with a monthly output close to 120,000 tons. Some factories in the southwest may gradually cut production in the future [11]. - In September, the supply - demand was in a balanced state, and the core of the balance change is the rhythm and amplitude of Hesheng's resumption of production. In the short term, affected by the resumption rhythm of the southwest and Hesheng, the supply - demand will remain balanced in September and October. In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still large, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [11]. Lithium Carbonate - This week, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated. On the raw material side, overseas mines have a strong willingness to support prices, and traders are reluctant to sell, but salt factories have a low acceptance of high - priced lithium ore [11]. - On the lithium salt side, the pre - holiday replenishment rhythm was strong first and then weak this week and is now approaching the end. The spot basis is stable and weak, with some discounts expanding by 100 - 200 yuan. The transaction of electric - grade lithium carbonate in the market is still mainly at a discount, and inquiries for high - priced goods are relatively scarce [11]. - Lithium carbonate is still in the capacity expansion cycle, and the static supply - demand pattern is still in surplus. With the help of the seasonal peak season and the explosion of energy storage demand, the monthly balance after CATL's gradual production cut has turned to continuous inventory reduction, but the amplitude is average [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Future three months, supply to fluctuate slightly, combustion demand to rise steadily, PDH plants likely to maintain high operation. With OPEC+增产预期, international propane under pressure, domestic refinery gas facing high pressure, LPG prices expected to be more likely to fall than rise. Attention should be paid to PDH plant maintenance, OPEC+ policies, and geopolitical changes [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - From September 24 to September 30, 2025, prices of华南液化气,华东液化气,山东液化气,丙烷CFR华南,丙烷CIF日本,MB丙烷现货,CP预测合同价,山东醚后碳四,山东烷基化油,纸面进口利润, and主力基差 all changed. For example,华南液化气 remained at 4600 on September 24 - 25, then rose to 4650 on September 26, and dropped to 4640 on September 29 - 30 [1] - On October 6 compared to pre - holiday,华东低位 was 4363 (+0),山东 was 4540 (-10),华南 was 4600 (-40), and醚后碳四 was 4550 (+0). Lowest delivery location was华东 with a基差 of 70 (-33), and 10 - 11 month spread was 152 (+4) [1] Price Influencing Factors - On September 30, October CP official price opened lower than expected. Propane and butane were 495 and 475 respectively, down 25 and 15 dollars/ton from last month, possibly due to ongoing long - term contract negotiations and Saudi Arabia's price cut for competitiveness [1] - FEI and CP Nov decreased, 513 (-10) and 478 (-13.4) dollars/ton respectively [1] Market Situation - Externally, Middle East supply in tight balance, US inventory at a record high with high export load. Demand from Japan, South Korea's chemical industry, China's PDH procurement, and India's peak - season stocking, but warm - winter expectation may suppress Japan and South Korea's inventory replenishment. US - to - Far - East shipping freight dropped significantly, and the arbitrage window was closed [1] - Domestically, before the holiday, upstream inventory clearance and downstream restocking occurred simultaneously with small price fluctuations. During the holiday, tourism peak boosted demand, but the weak international market pressured prices. More arrivals and limited holiday transport capacity led to upstream inventory accumulation, with refineries facing high inventory pressure and ports at a neutral inventory level [1] Industry Forecast - Supply to have minor fluctuations in the next three months, combustion demand to rise steadily, PDH plants likely to maintain high operation. On September 26, PDH plant operation rate was 69.5%. Before the holiday, Tianjin Bohua, Li Huayi Weiyuan, and Hebei Haiwei had maintenance plans in early October. Lower raw material arrival prices eased PDH profit (up about 200 yuan month - on - month) [1] - Due to weak terminal gasoline demand and poor plant profit, procurement of醚后碳四 was inactive [1]