甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/22 | 甲 醇 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 动力煤期 | | 江苏现货 华南现货 | 鲁南折盘 | 西南折盘面 | 河北折盘 | 西北折盘 | CFR中国 | CFR东南 | | 进口利润 主力基差 | 盘面MTO | | | 货 | | | 面 | | 面 | 面 | | 亚 | | | 利润 | | 2025/10/1 5 | 801 | 2320 | 2280 | 2505 | 2500 | 2495 | 2678 | 266 | 326 | 14 | 8 | - | | 2025/10/1 6 | 801 | 2305 | 2285 | 2495 | 2500 | 2470 | 2665 | 265 | 325 | 20 | 5 | - | | 2025/10/1 7 | 801 | 2280 | 2263 | 2505 | 2500 | 2470 | 2 ...

| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/10/22 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/10/15 | 3090 | 3180 | 3270 | 3130 | 3250 | 3210 | | 2025/10/16 | 3090 | 3180 | 3270 | 3130 | 3230 | 3210 | | 2025/10/17 | 3070 | 3210 | 3270 | 3130 | 3230 | 3210 | | 2025/10/20 | 3120 | 3210 | 3270 | 3130 | 3230 | 3240 | | 2025/10/21 | 3120 | 3210 | 3210 | 3130 | 3230 | 3210 | | 变化 | 0 | 0 | -60 | 0 | 0 | -30 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 ...

Report Summary 1. Price Performance - Latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, and LME Copper are $4169.60, $49.95, $1626.00, $1484.00, and $10669.50 respectively, with changes of -$124.75, -$1.85, -$16.00, -$55.00, and -$10.00 [1] - Latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro - US Dollar, British Pound - US Dollar, and US Dollar - Japanese Yen are 98.97, 1.16, 1.34, and 151.93 respectively, with changes of 0.35, -0.00, -0.00, and 1.17 [1] 2. Trading Data - Latest COMEX silver inventory is 15670.94, with a change of -81.96; latest上期所白银 inventory is 749.36, with a change of -106.49 [1] - Latest gold ETF持仓 is 1058.66, with no change; latest silver ETF持仓 is 15676.64, with a change of -93.14 [1] - The latest上金所白银递延费支付方向 and上金所黄金递延费支付 direction are 2 and 1 respectively, with no change [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **PTA**: Near - term TA partial units increased load,开工 slightly increased, polyester load remained stable, inventory slightly accumulated, basis weakened, and spot processing fees remained low. PX domestic operation rate declined, overseas partial maintenance took place, PXN widened, disproportionation and isomerization benefits were stable, and the US - Asia aromatics spread widened. Later, polyester showed no unexpected performance, TA gradually entered the inventory accumulation stage, but considering the long - term low processing fees, additional maintenance should be noted. With limited far - month production capacity expansion, the processing fee center may gradually recover [2]. - **MEG**: Near - term domestic maintenance and restart coexisted, the load still slightly increased, overseas maintenance took place, arrivals were stable but shipments were weak, and port inventory continued to slightly accumulate at the beginning of next week. The basis was stable, and coal - based benefits and ratios further shrank. Later, EG's existing operation rate returned to a relatively high level, and with new unit commissioning, it entered a continuous inventory accumulation stage. However, after the weakening of coal - based benefits and ratios, there may be some negative feedback on the supply side. Considering the recent strengthening of coal prices, short - put opportunities near the coal - based cost should be noted [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Near - term units operated stably, the operation rate remained at 94.3%, sales improved month - on - month, and inventory slightly decreased. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn slightly increased, both raw material and finished product inventories decreased, and benefits slightly improved. Later, the operation rate and finished product inventory of polyester yarn did not significantly increase. Staple fiber's exports maintained high growth, the operation rate remained high due to good spot benefits, the overall inventory pressure was limited, and the processing fee on the futures market was not high. Attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [2]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber**: The main contradiction was that the national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber remained stable while rainfall affected tapping. The strategy was to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From October 15 to 21, crude oil increased by 0.3, PTA spot increased by 5, POY 150D/48F decreased by 50, naphtha cracking spread increased by 0.00, PX processing margin increased by 0.0, PTA processing margin remained unchanged, polyester gross margin decreased by 46, PTA balance load and PTA load remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 2 [2]. - **Market Situation**: Near - term TA partial units increased load, polyester load was stable, inventory slightly accumulated, basis weakened, and spot processing fees were low. PX domestic operation rate declined, overseas partial maintenance took place, PXN widened, and the US - Asia aromatics spread widened [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From October 15 to 21, Northeast Asian ethylene remained unchanged, MEG outer - market price decreased by 1, MEG inner - market price decreased by 25, MEG coal - based profit decreased by 25, and other indicators remained unchanged [2]. - **Market Situation**: Near - term domestic maintenance and restart coexisted, the load slightly increased, overseas maintenance took place, port inventory slightly accumulated, basis was stable, and coal - based benefits and ratios further shrank [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From October 15 to 21, 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 15, low - melting - point staple fiber remained unchanged, and other prices and margins had corresponding changes. The operation rate remained at 94.3%, and the short - fiber profit remained unchanged while the pure - polyester yarn profit increased by 15 [2]. - **Market Situation**: Near - term units operated stably, sales improved, inventory slightly decreased. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn slightly increased, both raw material and finished product inventories decreased, and benefits slightly improved [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From October 15 to 21, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 40, the price of US - dollar Thai mixed rubber increased by 30, and other prices also had different degrees of increase. The difference between rubber types and various margins also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Market Situation**: The main contradiction was the stable and relatively low national explicit inventory and the impact of rainfall on tapping while the Thai cup lump rubber price remained stable. The strategy was to wait and see [2]. Styrene - **Price and Margin Changes**: From October 15 to 21, ethylene remained unchanged, pure benzene (CFR China) remained unchanged, pure benzene (East China) decreased by 100, styrene (CFR China) increased by 10, and other prices and margins had corresponding changes. The domestic profit of EPS decreased by 75, and the domestic profit of PS decreased by 75 [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - PG main contract significantly increased due to news disturbances in macro and geopolitical aspects. The basis was -20 (-334), and the 11 - 12 monthly spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4200 (-250); East China was 4345 (-39), and South China was 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts. The external market prices tumbled. FEI monthly spread was -10 US dollars (+5), and CP monthly spread was -4 US dollars (+5). The internal - external price difference PG - CP reached 132 (+27); PG - FEI reached 112 (+14). FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane increased significantly, with South China at 78 (+26). Freight rates dropped sharply, with the US Gulf - Japan at 108 (-18) and the Middle East - Far East at 60.5 (-2.5). FEI - MOPJ narrowed but the switching window remained open, at -71 (-12). PDH - to - propylene profit declined. Inventory pressure was high, with short - term supply pressure large, but supported by chemical demand and the expected recovery of combustion demand. PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12 pct), with Zhongjing Phase II restored, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong having a short - term shutdown; enterprises were expected to gradually increase their loads next week. Although the spot supply pressure was large and the PG basis fell sharply to negative, due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances, the futures market might not decline significantly in the short term [1]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Daily Changes - On Tuesday, civil gas showed differentiation, with a rebound in Shandong. In East China, it was 4264 (-74), in Shandong 4200 (+110), and in South China 4420 (-30). Ether - after carbon four was 4390 (-10). The lowest deliverable area was Shandong, with a basis of 49 (+197), and the 11 - 12 monthly spread was 151 (+9). FEI declined and CP fluctuated, at 465 (+2) and 440 (-2) US dollars/ton respectively [1]. Weekly View - The PG main contract rose significantly because of macro and geopolitical news. The basis decreased by 334 to -20, and the 11 - 12 monthly spread increased by 59 to 137. Domestic civil gas prices dropped substantially. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas with a price reduction of 250 to 4200; East China was 4345 (-39), and South China was 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts. External market prices dropped sharply. FEI and CP monthly spreads increased by 5 US dollars, reaching -10 and -4 respectively. The internal - external price differences PG - CP, PG - FEI, and FEI - CP all increased. The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane in South China increased by 26 to 78. Freight rates decreased significantly. FEI - MOPJ narrowed but the switching window was still open. PDH - to - propylene profit decreased. Inventory pressure was high, but there was support from chemical demand and an expected recovery of combustion demand. PDH operating rate decreased by 2.12 pct to 68.76%. Although spot supply pressure was large and the PG basis dropped sharply, the futures market might not decline significantly in the short term due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances [1].

【行情分析】： 研究中心农产品团队 2025/10/22 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/10/15 | 1970 2080 | 2120 | 2310 | -21 | 90 247 | 2700 | 2800 | 254 | 120 | | 2025/10/16 | 1970 2080 | 2120 | 2310 | -31 | 90 202 | 2700 | 2800 | 279 | 110 | | 2025/10/17 | 1970 2080 | 2120 | 2310 | -37 | 90 203 | 2700 | 2800 | 281 | - | | 2025/10/20 | 2020 2100 | 2140 | 2310 | -38 | 70 194 | 2700 | 2800 | 275 | - ...

、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担任何责任。 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 759.0 6.0 39.0 63.0 -96.0 25省终端可用天数 24.3 -0.7 4.4 3.4 6.7 秦皇岛5000 669.0 7.0 39.0 64.0 -86.0 25省终端供煤 529.5 -2.7 -79.0 -110.5 -93.3 广州港5500 800.0 5.0 25.0 40.0 -110.0 北方港库存 2244.0 17.0 46.0 175.0 -91.6 鄂尔多斯5500 545.0 10.0 50.0 80.0 -85.0 北方锚地船舶 88.0 -8.0 -24.0 -19.0 36.0 大同5500 590.0 10.0 45.0 70.0 -120.0 北方港调入量 146.9 5.6 17.1 -17.9 -26.6 榆林6000 672.0 20.0 30.0 55.0 -147.0 北方港吞吐量 140.1 -7.3 -6.8 -24.7 10.4 榆林6200 7 ...

Report Overview - The report is a scrap steel morning report released by the Black Team of the Research Center on October 22, 2025 [1][2] Key Data - Scrap steel prices from October 15 - 21, 2025 in different regions (East China, North China, Central China, South China, Northeast China, Southwest China) are presented. For example, on October 15, prices were 2238, 2307, 2057, 2235, 2266, 2135 respectively; on October 21, they were 2227, 2300, 2051, 2226, 2256, 2134 respectively [2][10] - The price change on October 21 compared to the previous day shows a环比 of 1, 2, 0, 6, -2, -1 in the respective regions [10]

焦煤日报 2025/10/22 研究中心黑色团队 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1575.00 | 0.00 | 25.00 | 72.00 | -1.56% Peak Downs | 204.50 | 0.00 | -0.50 | 1.50 | -7.70 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 1100.00 | -15.00 | 58.00 | 100.00 | -7.17% Goonyella | 204.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 | -7.70 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1420.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 70.00 | -16.47% 盘面05 | 1265.00 | -32.00 | 43.00 | 0.50 | -10.60% | | 安泽主焦 | 1550.00 | 0.00 | 20.00 | 50.00 | -13.89% ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Coke Daily Report [1] - Date: October 22, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Price and Production Data - **Coke Prices**: - Shanxi quasi - first wet - quenched coke price is 1482.39, with no daily change, no weekly change, a monthly increase of 54.61, and a year - on - year decrease of 23.70% [2] - Hebei quasi - first dry - quenched coke price is 1735.00, with no daily change, no weekly change, a monthly increase of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.72% [2] - Shandong quasi - first dry - quenched coke price is 1660.00, with no daily change, no weekly change, a monthly increase of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 21.70% [2] - Jiangsu quasi - first dry - quenched coke price is 1700.00, with no daily change, no weekly change, a monthly increase of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 21.30% [2] - Inner Mongolia second - grade coke price is 1180.00, with no daily change, no weekly change, a monthly increase of 100.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 30.59% [2] - **Production and Utilization Rates**: - Blast furnace operating rate is 90.33, with a weekly decrease of 0.22, a monthly decrease of 0.02, and a year - on - year increase of 3.22% [2] - Daily average hot metal production is 240.95, with a weekly decrease of 0.59, a monthly decrease of 0.07, and a year - on - year increase of 2.81% [2] - Coking plant capacity utilization rate is 74.95, with a weekly decrease of 0.05, a monthly decrease of 0.63, and a year - on - year increase of 2.57% [2] - Daily average coke production is 51.28, with a weekly decrease of 1.03, a monthly decrease of 0.55, and a year - on - year increase of 0.23% [2] Group 3: Inventory Data - **Inventory Quantities**: - Coking plant inventory is 37.59, with a weekly decrease of 4.95, a monthly decrease of 4.62, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.36% [2] - Port inventory is 195.15, with a weekly increase of 0.06, a monthly decrease of 8.95, and a year - on - year increase of 8.28% [2] - Steel mill inventory is 639.44, with a weekly decrease of 11.38, a monthly decrease of 5.23, and a year - on - year increase of 13.58% [2] - **Inventory Days**: - Steel mill inventory days are 11.19, with a weekly decrease of 0.23, a monthly decrease of 0.23, and a year - on - year increase of 3.80% [2] Group 4: Futures Market Data - **Futures Prices**: - Futures contract 05 price is 1837.5, with a daily decrease of 27.00, a weekly increase of 56.00, a monthly increase of 88.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.15% [2] - Futures contract 09 price is 1917.5, with a daily decrease of 28.50, a weekly increase of 53.00, a monthly increase of 417.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.68% [2] - Futures contract 01 price is 1691.5, with a daily decrease of 27.50, a weekly increase of 56.00, a monthly increase of 77.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 15.15% [2] - **Basis and Spread**: - 05 basis is - 66.11, with a daily increase of 27.00, a weekly decrease of 56.00, a monthly decrease of 88.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 259.20 [2] - 09 basis is - 146.11, with a daily increase of 28.50, a weekly decrease of 53.00, a monthly decrease of 417.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 284.20 [2] - 01 basis is 79.89, with a daily increase of 27.50, a weekly decrease of 56.00, a monthly decrease of 77.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 187.70 [2] - 5 - 9 spread is - 146.00, with a daily decrease of 0.50, no weekly change, a monthly decrease of 10.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 71.50 [2] - 9 - 1 spread is - 80.00, with a daily increase of 1.50, a weekly increase of 3.00, a monthly decrease of 329.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 25.00 [2] - 1 - 5 spread is 226.00, with a daily decrease of 1.00, a weekly decrease of 3.00, a monthly increase of 340.00, and a year - on - year increase of 96.50 [2]