Yong An Qi Huo
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原油成品油早报-20250919
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 02:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices closed higher, with absolute price fluctuations intensifying due to geopolitical news. The global oil market is experiencing inventory accumulation, with US EIA commercial crude oil and refined oil inventories increasing, and global refinery profits declining. In the baseline scenario, the crude oil balance sheet will have a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors and sanctions on supply from Iran and Russia [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily News - International oil prices fell on Thursday as concerns about the US economic outlook outweighed the benefits of the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points on Wednesday and signaled further cuts this year, but the latest US data showed a slowdown in the economy and an unexpected increase in distillate inventories, which dampened demand expectations. Ecopetrol will complete its 2025 drilling target ahead of schedule and may exceed its production target. The EU is planning to accelerate the phase - out of Russian liquefied natural gas, and analysts expect the global natural gas market to turn into a supply surplus in the second half of next year [5]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending September 12, US crude oil exports increased by 2.532 million barrels per day to 5.277 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.013 million barrels to 13.482 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 2.19%, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.671 million barrels per day, a 1.69% increase from the same period last year, strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 0.504 million barrels to 405.7 million barrels, an increase of 0.12%, and commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 0.579 million barrels per day to 5.692 million barrels per day. From September 5 - 11, the operating rate of major refineries fluctuated slightly, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic production and inventory of gasoline and diesel both increased, the comprehensive profit of major refineries weakened, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased [6]. 3.3 Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices closed higher, with absolute price fluctuations intensifying due to geopolitical news. The US proposed extensive sanctions on Russian energy on Friday. Fundamentally, the global oil market is accumulating inventory, and refinery profits are declining. In the baseline scenario, the crude oil balance sheet will be in surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the impact of US sanctions on Russia and its potential to disrupt Russian supply [7].
永安期货焦炭日报-20250919
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 02:10
Report Information - Report Title: Coke Daily Report - Report Date: September 19, 2025 - Report Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - No core viewpoints are provided in the report. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - The latest price of Shanxi quasi - first wet - quenched coke is 1427.78, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 54.61, a monthly decrease of 53.55, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.51% [2]. - The latest price of Hebei quasi - first dry - quenched coke is 1680.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 55.00, a monthly decrease of 55.00, and a year - on - year increase of 7.69% [2]. - The latest price of Shandong quasi - first dry - quenched coke is 1605.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 55.00, a monthly decrease of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.34% [2]. - The latest price of Jiangsu quasi - first dry - quenched coke is 1645.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 55.00, a monthly decrease of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.11% [2]. - The latest price of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is 1080.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 50.00, a monthly decrease of 100.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.00% [2]. Production and Utilization Information - The blast furnace开工率 (blast furnace operating rate) is 90.18, with a weekly increase of 4.39, a monthly decrease of 0.04, and a year - on - year increase of 7.87% [2]. - The daily average iron water output is 241.02, with a weekly increase of 0.47, a monthly increase of 0.27, and a year - on - year increase of 7.68% [2]. - The coking capacity utilization rate is 75.58, with a weekly increase of 2.97, a monthly increase of 1.45, and a year - on - year increase of 9.46% [2]. - The daily average coke output is 51.83, with a weekly decrease of 0.09, a monthly increase of 0.20, and a year - on - year decrease of 3.63% [2]. Inventory Information - The coking plant inventory is 42.21, with a weekly decrease of 1.70, a monthly increase of 2.74, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.24% [2]. - The port inventory is 204.10, with a weekly decrease of 1.01, a monthly decrease of 10.52, and a year - on - year increase of 7.34% [2]. - The steel mill inventory is 644.67, with a weekly increase of 11.38, a monthly increase of 35.08, and a year - on - year increase of 18.79% [2]. - The steel mill inventory days are 11.42, with a weekly increase of 0.13, a monthly increase of 0.66, and a year - on - year increase of 5.94% [2]. Futures Information - The price of futures contract 05 is 1853.5, with a daily decrease of 3.50, a weekly increase of 104.00, a monthly increase of 85.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.58% [2]. - The price of futures contract 09 is 1902, with a daily increase of 7.00, a weekly increase of 402.00, a monthly increase of 283.00, and a year - on - year increase of 1.12% [2]. - The price of futures contract 01 is 1725.5, with a daily decrease of 2.50, a weekly increase of 111.50, a monthly increase of 45.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.92% [2]. - The 05 basis is - 124.70, with a daily increase of 3.50, a weekly decrease of 146.59, a monthly decrease of 137.70, and a year - on - year decrease of 198.70 [2]. - The 09 basis is - 173.20, with a daily decrease of 7.00, a weekly decrease of 444.59, a monthly decrease of 335.20, and a year - on - year decrease of 268.70 [2]. - The 01 basis is 3.30, with a daily increase of 2.50, a weekly decrease of 154.09, a monthly decrease of 97.70, and a year - on - year decrease of 99.20 [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread is - 128.00, with a daily increase of 1.00, a weekly increase of 7.50, a monthly decrease of 40.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 99.50 [2]. - The 9 - 1 spread is - 48.50, with a daily decrease of 10.50, a weekly decrease of 298.00, a monthly decrease of 197.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 70.00 [2]. - The 1 - 5 spread is 176.50, with a daily increase of 9.50, a weekly increase of 290.50, a monthly increase of 237.50, and a year - on - year increase of 169.50 [2].
永安期货贵金属早报-20250919
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 02:10
Price Performance - London Gold latest price is 3643.70, with a change of -37.30 [1] - London Silver latest price is 41.86, with a change of 0.59 [1] - London Platinum latest price is 1369.00, with a change of -32.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is 1161.00, with a change of -23.00 [1] - WTI Crude latest price is 63.57, with a change of -0.48 [1] - LME Copper latest price is 9942.50, with a change of -122.00 [1] - US Dollar Index latest is 97.37, with a change of 0.33 [1] - Euro to US Dollar latest is 1.18, with a change of -0.00 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar latest is 1.36, with a change of -0.01 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen latest is 148.00, with a change of 1.00 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory latest is 16300.91, with a change of -38.59 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory latest is 1203.52, with a change of -17.91 [1] - Gold ETF holdings latest is 975.66, with a change of 0.00 [1] - Silver ETF holdings latest is 15205.14, with a change of 15.53 [1] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction latest is 1, with a change of -1.00 [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction latest is 1, with a change of 0.00 [1]
永安期货焦煤日报-20250919
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:55
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Coking Coal Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] - Report Date: September 19, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Information - **Spot Prices**: - LiuLin Main Coking Coal: The latest price is 1503.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 102.00, a monthly increase of 50.00, and an annual increase of 7.36% [2] - Raw Coal Port Delivery Price: The latest price is 990.00, a daily decrease of 10.00, a weekly increase of 47.00, a monthly increase of 34.00, and an annual decrease of 13.16% [2] - ShaHeYi Meng 5: The latest price is 1350.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 30.00, a monthly decrease of 30.00, and an annual decrease of 18.18% [2] - AnZe Main Coking Coal: The latest price is 1500.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 80.00, a monthly increase of 30.00, and an annual decrease of 10.71% [2] - **Peak Downs and Goonyella**: - Peak Downs: The latest price is 203.00, a daily increase of 0.50, a weekly increase of 1.50, a monthly decrease of 2.50, and an annual increase of 1.00 [2] - Goonyella: The latest price is 204.00, a daily increase of 1.00, a weekly increase of 1.50, a monthly decrease of 5.50, and an annual increase of 2.00 [2] - **Futures Prices**: - Futures 05: The latest price is 1302.50, a daily decrease of 6.50, a weekly increase of 82.00, a monthly increase of 93.00, and an annual increase of 2.24% [2] - Futures 09: The latest price is 1360.50, a daily decrease of 3.00, a weekly increase of 402.50, a monthly increase of 316.00, and an annual increase of 5.92% [2] - Futures 01: The latest price is 1215.50, a daily decrease of 14.00, a weekly increase of 78.00, a monthly increase of 51.50, and an annual decrease of 4.25% [2] Group 3: Inventory and Capacity Utilization - **Inventory**: - Total Inventory: The latest inventory is 3372.99, a weekly increase of 56.61, a monthly decrease of 100.63, and an annual decrease of 10.92% [2] - Coal Mine Inventory: The latest inventory is 232.79, a weekly decrease of 21.73, a monthly decrease of 42.85, and an annual decrease of 15.02% [2] - Port Inventory: The latest inventory is 271.11, a weekly decrease of 4.38, a monthly increase of 15.62, and an annual decrease of 34.53% [2] - Steel Mill Coking Coal Inventory: The latest inventory is 793.73, a weekly decrease of 2.03, a monthly decrease of 12.07, and an annual increase of 10.49% [2] - Coking Plant Coking Coal Inventory: The latest inventory is 883.54, a weekly decrease of 36.51, a monthly decrease of 93.34, and an annual increase of 4.31% [2] - Coking Plant Coke Inventory: The latest inventory is 86.03, a weekly increase of 0.10, a monthly decrease of 0.14, and an annual decrease of 0.06% [2] - **Capacity Utilization**: Coking Capacity Utilization is 75.87, a weekly decrease of 0.05, a monthly increase of 1.45, and an annual increase of 9.88% [2] Group 4: Basis and Spread - **Basis**: - 05 Basis: The latest basis is -18.94, a daily increase of 82.36, a weekly increase of 16.85, a monthly decrease of 61.97, and an annual decrease of 217.01 [2] - 09 Basis: The latest basis is -76.94, a daily increase of 78.86, a weekly decrease of 303.65, a monthly decrease of 284.97, and an annual decrease of 1.41 [2] - 01 Basis: The latest basis is 68.06, a daily increase of 89.86, a weekly increase of 20.85, a monthly decrease of 20.47, and an annual decrease of 0.66 [2] - **Spread**: - 5 - 9 Spread: The latest spread is -58.00, a daily decrease of 3.50, a weekly decrease of 320.50, a monthly decrease of 223.00, and an annual increase of 4.52% [2] - 9 - 1 Spread: The latest spread is 145.00, a daily increase of 11.00, a weekly increase of 324.50, a monthly increase of 264.50, and an annual increase of 8.67% [2] - 1 - 5 Spread: The latest spread is -87.00, a daily decrease of 7.50, a weekly decrease of 4.00, a monthly decrease of 41.50, and an annual increase of 18.33% [2]
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250919
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:55
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - Methanol: The current trading logic is that port pressure is transmitted to the inland. Although there is seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment in the inland later, the port will continuously form a reverse flow impact. The current price on the disk is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial later. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. The reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will impact inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. It is still necessary to wait before bottom - fishing [2]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina are destocking, coal - chemical industry is destocking, and social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material inventory and finished product inventory are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The basis for 09 contract is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The external market in Europe, America and Southeast Asia is stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increment for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is the same as the previous month, and the recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD production conversion and US quotation. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is large, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices [3]. - PP (Polypropylene): The upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and the middle - stream of polypropylene are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up is stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material inventory and finished product inventory are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be relieved to a neutral level [3]. - PVC: The basis for the 01 contract remains at - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. The summer seasonal maintenance of northwest devices has a load center between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and the sustainability of exports. The recent near - end export orders have slightly declined. The coal sentiment is good, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure with PVC maintenance; the counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro - situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price Data: The daily changes of methanol price data include 0 for power coal futures, - 12 for Jiangsu spot, - 13 for South China spot, - 5 for Lunan converted to the disk, - 10 for Southwest converted to the disk, 0 for Hebei converted to the disk, 0 for Northwest converted to the disk, 0 for CFR China, 0 for CFR Southeast Asia, 0 for import profit, - 10 for the main contract basis, and 0 for the MTO profit on the disk [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - Price and Inventory Data: From September 12 to 18, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 850. The daily change of North China LL was - 40, and other prices such as East China LL, East China LD, and East China HD remained unchanged. The import profit was stable, the main contract futures price decreased by 57, the basis decreased by 10, and the two - oil inventory and warehouse receipts remained unchanged [3]. PP (Polypropylene) - Price and Inventory Data: From September 12 to 18, 2025, the Shandong propylene and Northeast Asia propylene prices remained unchanged. The East China PP price decreased by 20, the North China PP price decreased by 22, the main contract futures price decreased by 56, the basis decreased by 10, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 30 [3]. PVC - Price and Profit Data: From September 12 to 18, 2025, the Shandong caustic soda price decreased by 22, the East China price of calcium carbide method decreased by 30, and other prices such as the East China price of ethylene method, the South China price of calcium carbide method remained unchanged. The export profit, Northwest comprehensive profit, and North China comprehensive profit remained unchanged, and the basis remained unchanged [3] [6].
永安期货纸浆早报-20250919
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:54
Report Overview - Report Title: Pulp Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: September 19, 2025 [2] SP Main Contract Closing Price - On September 18, 2025, the SP main contract closing price was 5014.00, with a previous day's closing price of 5042.00, a decrease of 0.55534%. The discount to the US dollar price was 615.54 [3]. - The price trends from September 12 - 18, 2025, showed fluctuations, with the highest closing price of 5068.00 on September 16 and the lowest of 4990.00 on September 12 [3]. Basis and Import Profit - The Shandong Yinxing basis on September 18, 2025, was 611, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis was 636 [3]. - Import profit calculations for different pulp brands: Canadian Golden Lion had an import profit of - 136.75, Canadian Lion had - 485.04, and Chilean Yinxing had - 229.70, all calculated with 13% VAT and an exchange rate of 7.11 [4]. Pulp and Paper Prices and Margins - From September 12 - 18, 2025, the national average prices of coniferous pulp, broad - leaf pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged, as did the Shandong regional average prices [4]. - For paper products, cultural paper (double - offset and double - copper indices), packaging paper (white card index) remained stable from September 15 - 18, 2025, while the living paper index increased by 4 [4]. - The profit margins of different paper products showed slight changes from September 15 - 18, 2025. Double - offset paper profit margin increased by 0.0506, double - copper paper by 0.0459, white card paper by 0.0368, and living paper by 0.0764 [4]. Pulp Price Spreads - The price spreads between different types of pulp (coniferous - broadleaf, coniferous - natural, coniferous - chemimechanical, coniferous - wastepaper) showed a decreasing trend from September 12 - 18, 2025 [4].
集运早报-20250919
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:19
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market has a risk of price - cutting recently, and the futures market is expected to remain weak. Contract 12 has a relatively high - neutral valuation and may decline more in the short term. In the medium term, there are multiple upward drivers. Contract 02 has a higher cost - performance for long - positions compared to 12, and contract 04 has a high valuation, is suitable for short - positions in the short term but has low liquidity [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2510 closed at 1105.9 with a - 0.34% change; EC2512 at 1645.3 with a - 1.60% change; EC2602 at 1566.1 with a - 0.80% change; EC2604 at 1255.2 with a - 2.52% change; EC2606 at 1453.5 with a - 1.03% change [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: EC2510 had a trading volume of 19585 and an open interest of 47173 with a change of - 2436; EC2512 had a volume of 9304 and an open interest of 20570 with a change of 183; EC2602 had a volume of 1549 and an open interest of 7215 with a change of 110; EC2604 had a volume of 1289 and an open interest of 8534 with a change of 200; EC2606 had a volume of 68 and an open interest change of 12 [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: EC2510 - 2512 spread was - 539.4, with a day - on - day increase of 22.9 and a week - on - week decrease of 86.8; EC2512 - 2602 spread was 79.2, with a day - on - day decrease of 14.0 and a week - on - week decrease of 30.2 [2]. Spot Index Information - **SCFIS (European Line)**: As of 2025/9/15, it was 0, down 100.00% from the previous period and - 11.68% from two periods ago [2]. - **SCFI**: As of 2025/9/12, it was 1154 dollars/TEU, down 12.24% from the previous period and - 11.21% from two periods ago [2]. - **CCFI**: As of 2025/9/12, it was 1537.28 points, down 6.19% from the previous period and - 2.79% from two periods ago [2]. - **NCFI**: As of 2025/9/12, it was 729.42 points, down 14.78% from the previous period and - 7.92% from two periods ago [2]. Recent European Line Quotation - **Week 39**: The average quotation was 1600 dollars (equivalent to 1150 points). MSK was initially 1500 dollars and then rose to 1570 dollars, PA Alliance was 1550 - 1600 dollars, and OA Alliance was 1600 - 1720 dollars [3]. - **Week 40**: The average was 1525 dollars (equivalent to 1060 points). MSK opened at 1400 dollars, OOCL dropped to 1500 - 1550 dollars, and YML dropped to 1400 dollars [3]. - **Week 41**: MSK quoted 1400 dollars [3]. - **Thursday**: YML lowered the freight rates for Week 39 - 41 to 1300 dollars, the lowest of the year, equivalent to about 900 points. CMA dropped 100 dollars to 1600 dollars, and EMC quoted 1500 dollars for Week 40 [3]. News - On September 19, a Hamas senior official stated that the organization would not conduct negotiations currently due to Israel's continuous attacks. On the same day, the US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on a cease - fire in Gaza [3].
永安期货铁矿石早报-20250919
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:17
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - Not provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - The latest price of the Platts 62 Index is 105.60, with a daily change of -0.30 and a weekly change of -1.45 [3] - For Australian mainstream ores, Newman powder is 789, down 4 from the previous day and up 2 for the week; PB powder is 792, down 3 and up 2; Mac powder is 780, down 4 and up 3; etc [3] - For Brazilian mainstream ores, the price of Bahun is 821, down 1 and up 9 for the week; the price of Bacu IOC6 is 796, down 3 and up 1; etc [3] - The price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 1002, unchanged from the previous day and up 1 for the week [3] Forward Market - For DCE contracts, i2601 is 800.0, down 4.5 and up 4.5 for the week; i2605 is 778.5, down 4.0 and up 5.0; i2509 is 759.0, down 4.5 and down 81.5 [3] - For SGX contracts, FE01 is 103.26, up 0.02 and down 0.03 for the week; FE05 is 101.24, up 0.10 and up 0.39; FE09 is 105.45, down 0.27 and down 0.92 [3] Basis/Internal and External Market Spreads - For example, the basis of Newman powder is -29.35, and the internal and external market spread of i2601 is 36.3, up 3.4 from the previous day and up 5.2 for the week [3]
永安期货沥青早报-20250919
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:16
1. Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Morning Report [2][11][20] - Report Date: September 19, 2025 [3][12][21] - Report Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [3][12][21] 2. Core Data and Changes Futures Contracts - BU main contract: Price on September 18 was 3427, with a daily change of -18 and a weekly change of -23 [4][13][22] - BU06: Price on September 18 was 3358, with a daily change of -12 and a weekly change of -12 [4][13][22] - BU09: Price on September 18 was 3349, with a daily change of -13 and a weekly change of -71 [4][13][22] - BU12: Price on September 18 was 3388, with a daily change of -16 and a weekly change of -11 [4][13][22] - BU03: Price on September 18 was 3377, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of 0 [4][13][22] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Trading volume: On September 18, it was 210608, with a daily change of 1178 and a weekly change of -12209 [4][13][22] - Open interest: On September 18, it was 408756, with a daily change of 1203 and a weekly change of -27301 [4][13][22] Spot Market Prices - Shandong market price: On September 18, it was 3520, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -20 [4][13][22] - East China market price: On September 18, it was 3590, with a daily change of -50 and a weekly change of -50 [4][13][22] - South China market price: On September 18, it was 3490, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -30 [4][13][22] - North China market price: On September 18, it was 3660, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 10 [4][13][22] - Northeast market price: On September 18, it was 3850, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -20 [4][13][22] Basis and Calendar Spreads - Shandong basis: On September 18, it was 93, with a daily change of 18 and a weekly change of 3 [4][13][22] - East China basis: On September 18, it was 163, with a daily change of -32 and a weekly change of -27 [4][13][22] - South China basis: On September 18, it was 63, with a daily change of 18 and a weekly change of -7 [4][13][22] - 03 - 06 spread: On September 18, it was 19, with a daily change of 11 and a weekly change of 12 [4][13][22] - 06 - 09 spread: On September 18, it was 1, with a daily change of -7 and a weekly change of 59 [4][13][22] - 09 - 12 spread: On September 18, it was -39, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of -60 [4][13][22] - 12 - 03 spread: On September 18, it was 11, with a daily change of -12 and a weekly change of -11 [4][13][22] Crack Spreads and Profits - Asphalt Brent crack spread: On September 18, it was -4, with a daily change of 27 and a weekly change of -93 [4][13][22] - Asphalt Marrow profit: On September 18, it was -71, with a daily change of 24 and a weekly change of -84 [4][13][22] - Ordinary refinery comprehensive profit: On September 18, it was 384, with a daily change of 14 and a weekly change of -76 [4][13][22] - Marrow - type refinery comprehensive profit: On September 18, it was 715, with a daily change of 18 and a weekly change of -79 [4][13][22] - Import profit (South Korea - East China): On September 18, it was -137, with a daily change of -44 and a weekly change of -36 [4][13][22] - Import profit (Singapore - South China): On September 18, it was -939, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -16 [4][13][22] Related Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil: On September 18, it was 68.0, with a daily change of -0.5 and a weekly change of 1.6 [4][13][22] - Shandong gasoline market price: On September 18, it was 7511, with a daily change of -9 and a weekly change of -36 [4][13][22] - Shandong diesel market price: On September 18, it was 6468, with a daily change of -17 and a weekly change of -1 [5][14][23] - Shandong residue oil market price: On September 18, it was 3660, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -40 [5][14][23]
燃料油早报-20250919
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst high - sulfur fuel oil fluctuated, the near - month spread oscillated, the basis strengthened, the EW spread fluctuated at a high level, and the fluctuation of the near - month spread of domestic and foreign FU intensified due to delivery factors. The low - sulfur cracking spread weakened rapidly, the monthly spread weakened at an accelerated pace, the domestic and foreign spread of LU was compressed to $6 - 7 per ton, and the MF0.5 basis oscillated [3]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residue decreased by 871,000 barrels, floating storage was slightly destocked, ARA residue inventory increased significantly, and EIA residue continued to accumulate. The high - sulfur peak season in the Middle East has passed. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provides support, and the EW spread has completed its repair. The domestic high - sulfur spread has risen again due to the impact of the delivery warehouse, and the short - term domestic and foreign spread has been repaired. This week, LU declined at an accelerated pace, and the basis of the external MF0.5 was weakly operating. Due to the support of the gasoline and diesel cracking spreads in Europe and the United States, the opportunity for the low - sulfur to high - sulfur spread to widen in the fourth quarter can be noted [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From September 12 to September 18, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by $1.40, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased by $7.12, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by $0.32, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by $2.33, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by $4.79, LGO - Brent M1 increased by $0.21, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased by $5.72 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - During the same period, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by $1.49, Singapore 180cst M1 decreased by $0.16, Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by $3.48, Singapore GO M1 decreased by $1.17, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by $0.06, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by $5.17 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From September 12 to September 18, 2025, the FOB price of 380cst decreased by $0.21, the FOB price of VLSFO decreased by $5.47, the 380 basis increased by $1.00, the high - sulfur domestic and foreign spread decreased by $0.1, and the low - sulfur domestic and foreign spread increased by $0.4 [2]. Domestic FU Data - During the same period, FU 01 decreased by 33, FU 05 decreased by 33, FU 09 decreased by 24, FU 01 - 05 remained unchanged, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 9, and FU 09 - 01 increased by 9 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From September 12 to September 18, 2025, LU 01 decreased by 47, LU 05 decreased by 37, LU 09 decreased by 28, LU 01 - 05 decreased by 10, LU 05 - 09 decreased by 9, and LU 09 - 01 increased by 19 [3].