玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/10/22 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/14 2025/10/20 2025/10/21 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/14 2025/10/20 2025/10/21 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河安全 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 5mm大 板 | 1181.0 | 1151.0 | 1143.0 | -38.0 | -8.0 | FG05合约 | 1280.0 | 1231.0 | 1236.0 | -44.0 | 5.0 | | 沙河长城 | 1164.0 | 1126.0 | 1113.0 | -51.0 | -13.0 | FG01合约 | 1138.0 | 1091.0 | 1087.0 | -51.0 | -4.0 | | 5mm大 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The inventory pressure is high, and the short - term supply pressure is large, but there is support from chemical demand, and the combustion demand is expected to pick up. Although the spot supply pressure is large and the PG basis has dropped significantly and turned negative, due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances, the market may not decline significantly in the short term [1]. 3) Key Points from the Table and Analysis - **Price Changes on October 20th - 21st**: - On October 21st, the civil gas prices decreased. In East China, it was 4338 (-7), in Shandong 4090 (-110), and in South China 4450 (-10). The post - ether carbon four was 4400 (-20). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of - 161 (-41), and the November - December spread was 138 (+1). FEI and CP decreased to 456 (-15) and 438 (-9) dollars/ton respectively [1]. - **Weekly Changes and Other Information**: - The PG main contract rose significantly due to macro and geopolitical news. The basis was - 20 (-334), and the November - December spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was Shandong civil gas at 4200 (-250); in East China it was 4345 (-39), and in South China 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts. The overseas market prices dropped sharply. The FEI - CP spread was 20 (+12.5), and the US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. The CP propane - butane arrival discount in South China increased to 78 (+26). Freight rates decreased significantly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed but the switching window was still open at - 71 (-12). The profit of PDH to produce propylene decreased. The PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12pct). Next week, the operating enterprises are expected to gradually increase their loads [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the basis data of various futures varieties on October 20, 2025, including macro, black, energy - chemical, non - ferrous, and agricultural products. It shows the spot price, spot price change, basis, basis - corresponding contract, and basis deviation degree of each variety [2][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - The spot price of IF on October 20, 2025, was 4538, with a change of 24, a basis of 31, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 0.76 [2]. - The spot price of IH was 2975, with a change of 7, a basis of 4, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 0.44 [2]. - The spot price of IC was 7070, with a change of 54, a basis of 160, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 0.96 [2]. Black - For Shanghai's rebar, the spot price on October 20, 2025, was 3200, with no change, a basis of 155, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.84 [3]. - Beijing's rebar had a spot price of 3190, a change of - 10, a basis of 145, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.14 [3]. - Shanghai's hot - rolled coil had a spot price of 3270, no change, a basis of 55, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.80 [3]. - Shandong's iron ore had a spot price of 824, no change, a basis of 57, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.46 [3]. - Tianjin Port's coke had a spot price of 1656, no change, a basis of - 54, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.40 [3]. - Port - warehouse receipt coking coal had a spot price of 1600, a change of 72, a basis of 312, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.32 [3]. - Qinhuangdao Port's thermal coal had a spot price of 753, a change of 9, a basis of - 48, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.26 [3]. - Shahe's low - price glass had a spot price of 1135, a change of - 15, a basis of 44, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.36 [3]. - Hubei's low - price glass had a spot price of 1090, a change of - 20, a basis of - 1, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.28 [3]. - Yinchuan's ferrosilicon had a spot price of 5530, no change, a basis of - 26, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.34 [3]. - Inner Mongolia's ferromanganese had a spot price of 6050, no change, a basis of 262, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.91 [3]. Energy - Chemical - Port methanol had a spot price of 2256, no change, a basis of - 10, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.59 [3]. - Henan methanol had a spot price of 2350, no change, a basis of 84, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.47 [3]. - Lunan methanol had a spot price of 2500, no change, a basis of 234, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.70 [3]. - Hebei methanol had a spot price of 2630, no change, a basis of 364, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.86 [3]. - East China PTA had a spot price of 4299, a change of - 18, a basis of - 85, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.88 [3]. - East China PP had a spot price of 6490, a change of 20, a basis of - 75, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.59 [3]. - North China LLDPE had a spot price of 6840, a change of 10, a basis of - 39, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.10 [3]. - High - end PVC had a spot price of 4630, a change of 15, a basis of - 90, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.65 [3]. - Low - end PVC had a spot price of 4560, a change of 45, a basis of - 160, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.72 [3]. - East China asphalt had a spot price of 3550, no change, a basis of 409, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.88 [3]. - Shandong asphalt had a spot price of 3330, a change of - 30, a basis of 269, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.72 [3]. - South China asphalt had a spot price of 3500, no change, a basis of 359, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.88 [3]. - Inner - market ethylene glycol had a spot price of 4077, no change, a basis of 74, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.70 [3]. - Soda ash had a spot price of 1130, a change of 10, a basis of - 89, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.67 [3]. - Shandong pulp had a spot price of 4960, a change of 10, a basis of - 196, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.74 [3]. - East China short - fiber had a spot price of 6075, a change of - 25, a basis of 47, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 0.56 [3]. - Urea had a spot price of 1490, no change, a basis of - 110, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.88 [3]. - Shanghai natural rubber had a spot price of 14510, a change of 30, a basis of - 300, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.74 [3]. - Whole - latex natural rubber had a spot price of 13810, a change of 115, a basis of - 1000, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.04 [3]. - Qingdao 20 - number rubber had a spot price of 1825, a change of 10, a basis of 773, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 1.00 [3]. - Styrene had a spot price of 6370, a change of - 115, a basis of 5, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.90 [3]. Non - Ferrous - Copper had a spot price of 85650, a change of 875, a basis of 75, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.30 [4]. - International copper had a spot price of 75790, a change of 710, a basis of - 80, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of 0.69 [4]. - Aluminum had a spot price of 20930, a change of - 20, a basis of 10, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.45 [4]. - Zinc had a spot price of 21870, a change of 20, a basis of - 40, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.60 [4]. - Lead had a spot price of 16925, a change of 25, a basis of - 200, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.31 [4]. - Nickel had a spot price of 121300, a change of - 250, a basis of 400, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.78 [4]. - Tin had a spot price of 280000, a change of - 1000, a basis of 660, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.35 [4]. Agricultural Products - 43% Jiangsu soybean meal had a spot price of 2870, no change, a basis of - 25, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.08 [5]. - Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil had a spot price of 8540, a change of 50, a basis of 242, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.12 [5]. - Guangdong average - price 36% rapeseed meal had a spot price of 2480, a change of 40, a basis of 130, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.88 [5]. - Market average - price rapeseed oil had a spot price of 10420, a change of 77, a basis of 502, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 1.00 [5]. - Guangzhou 24° palm oil had a spot price of 9290, a change of 80, a basis of - 28, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.75 [5]. - National cotton had a spot price of 14480, a change of 45, a basis of 1015, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.58 [5]. - Guangxi white sugar had a spot price of 5770, a change of - 20, a basis of 342, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.26 [5]. - Yunnan white sugar had a spot price of 5840, a change of - 20, a basis of 412, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.58 [5]. - Hebei Shijiazhuang fresh eggs had a spot price of 2890, a change of - 110, a basis of 120, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.05 [5]. - Liaoning Dalian fresh eggs had a spot price of 2820, a change of - 110, a basis of 50, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.16 [5]. - Shandong Dezhou fresh eggs had a spot price of 2750, a change of - 100, a basis of - 20, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.24 [5]. - Henan Shangqiu fresh eggs had a spot price of 2800, a change of - 100, a basis of 30, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.36 [5]. - Bei'an soybeans had a spot price of 4050, no change, a basis of - 36, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.78 [5]. - Jiamusi soybeans had a spot price of 4120, no change, a basis of 34, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.45 [5]. - Changchun corn had a spot price of 2240, no change, a basis of 102, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.44 [5]. - Weifang corn had a spot price of 2360, no change, a basis of 222, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.45 [5]. - Changchun starch had a spot price of 2580, no change, a basis of 170, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of 0.67 [5]. - Weifang starch had a spot price of 2605, no change, a basis of 225, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of 0.88 [5]. - Henan Kaifeng pigs had a spot price of 11400, a change of 160, a basis of - 755, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.94 [5]. - Hebei jujubes had a spot price of 9600, no change, a basis of - 1785, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.84 [5]. - Shandong apples had a spot price of 6400, a change of - 1000, a basis of - 2465, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.98 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on October 21, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block was 5130, with no daily or weekly change; the factory - price converted to the futures price was 5430, and the main contract price was 5436, with a daily increase of 6 and a weekly increase of 30 [2]. - The export price of Tianjin 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1060 US dollars, with no daily change but a weekly increase of 25 [2]. - For silicon manganese, the factory - price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese was 5700, with a daily increase of 20 and a weekly increase of 50; the main contract price was 5738, with a daily increase of 20 and a weekly decrease of 8 [2]. Supply - The monthly production of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, with the production volume fluctuating over time [5]. - The weekly production of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China (with a capacity share of 95%) from 2021 - 2025 is also shown, and the capacity utilization rate of these enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi varies monthly [5]. - The weekly production of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 is provided, and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon manganese 6517 also change monthly [7]. Demand - The estimated monthly production of crude steel in China from 2021 - 2025 is given, which reflects the demand for ferroalloys in the steel - making industry [5]. - The demand for silicon manganese in China (according to the Steel Union's caliber) from 2021 - 2025 is shown, with the demand volume gradually increasing [8]. Inventory - The weekly inventory of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 is presented, and the inventory levels vary in different regions and over time [6]. - The daily inventory - related data of silicon manganese, including the total number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, from 2021 - 2025 are provided, along with the inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises in China (weekly, in tons) [6][8]. Cost and Profit - The electricity prices of ferroalloys in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 are shown, which are important cost factors for ferroalloy production [6]. - The market price of semi - coke small materials in Shaanxi, the starting rate of semi - coke in China, and the production profit of semi - coke in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, which are related to the cost of silicon ferroalloy production [6]. - The production cost, profit converted to the main futures contract, and spot profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 are provided, and the profit situation of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and other regions from 2021 - 2025 is also shown [6][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is still dominated by the progress of tariff negotiations. The impact of this tariff conflict is not expected to be higher than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. There is still room for negotiation, and attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations with South Korea. For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and long - term holding on dips is recommended. Keep an eye on terminal demand [1]. - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are poor, but the export window may open. In the face of increasing macro uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see or consider shorting LME zinc. For spreads, pay attention to the positive spread opportunities between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak. With ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian mining sector and increasing short - term macro uncertainties, it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak. There is short - term macro uncertainty, and the Indonesian policy side has a certain motivation to support prices [9]. - For lead, it is expected that the domestic and international lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, in the range of 17,000 - 17,300. Positive spread opportunities can be considered [11]. - For tin, the short - term domestic fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand. In the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. In the long term, buy on dips near the cost line [13]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the price will oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [14]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, supply and demand are both strong, and the de - stocking trend is maintained. In the long term, the elasticity of the demand side is the key variable for pattern reversal [15]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the spot price of Shanghai copper remained stable, the spread between scrap and refined copper increased by 554, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1530, and the import profit decreased by 246.01 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is affected by tariff negotiations. The smelting reduction is higher than expected, and there is medium - level inventory accumulation this week. The downstream's psychological price for pricing has increased. The copper cable's operation is different from that of the aluminum cable. Maintain a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots decreased by 20, the domestic alumina price decreased by 11, and the LME inventory decreased by 4100 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The operating capacity is flat. The demand for photovoltaic modules has stabilized. There is seasonal inventory accumulation during the festival, and the post - festival de - stocking is significant. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and long - term holding on dips is recommended [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 20, the LME C - 3M increased by 93, and the LME inventory decreased by 700 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic TC decreases, and the imported TC increases. The domestic mine is tightening, and the overseas mine has an unexpected increase. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is average. The export window has opened [2]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 150, the LME inventory decreased by 48, and the LME C - 3M decreased by 3 [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing both at home and abroad. With ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian mining sector and increasing short - term macro uncertainties, it is advisable to wait and see [5]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled, and scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The steel mill's production in October increases slightly. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron remain stable. The inventory remains at a high level, and the fundamentals are weak [9]. Lead - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the spot premium increased by 15, the LME inventory decreased by 3100, and the LME C - 3M remained unchanged [10][11]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply may increase by 2 - 30,000 tons in October. The demand is expected to weaken. The inventory is at the historical average level. It is expected that the lead price will oscillate narrowly next week, and positive spread opportunities can be considered [11]. Tin - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the tin position decreased by 1300, the LME C - 3M increased by 30, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is marginally repaired. The demand is slightly warmer during the peak season. The short - term domestic fundamentals show weak supply and demand. In the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. In the long term, buy on dips near the cost line [13]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the 421 Yunnan, 421 Sichuan, 553 East China, and 553 Tianjin basis all decreased by 135, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 811 [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply will decrease in the dry season. In Q4, the supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the price will oscillate at the cycle bottom [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 650, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 19 [14][15]. - **Market Analysis**: The raw material side is firm, and the lithium salt consumption and de - stocking exceed expectations. In the short term, supply and demand are both strong, and the de - stocking trend is maintained. In the long term, the elasticity of the demand side is the key variable for pattern reversal [15].

Report Overview - The report is a steel morning report released by the Black Team of the Research Center on October 21, 2025, covering spot prices, price and profit, basis and spread, production and inventory [1] Spot Prices Rebar - The spot prices of rebar in different regions from October 14 - 20, 2025 are presented. Beijing's price changed from 3110 to 3120 (a 50 increase), Shanghai's remained at 3210, Chengdu's stayed at 3270, Xi'an's held at 3130, Guangzhou's was stable at 3230, and Wuhan's rose from 3210 to 3240 (a 30 increase) [1] Hot - Rolled Coils - For hot - rolled coils, from October 14 - 20, 2025, Tianjin's price was stable at 3170, Shanghai's remained at 3250, and Lecong's increased from 3230 to 3310 (a 120 increase) [1] Cold - Rolled Coils - Regarding cold - rolled coils, Tianjin's and Shanghai's prices remained unchanged at 3680 and 3750 respectively, while Lecong's increased from 3790 to 3850 (a 100 increase) from October 14 - 20, 2025 [1] Other Sections - The report also mentions sections on price and profit [2], basis and spread [9], and production and inventory [10], but no detailed content for these sections is provided in the given text

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of the Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US relations policies. With high capacity in week 44, the implementation of price increases in the first half of November is expected to be poor, but there are still upward drivers at multiple price - increase announcement nodes later. The current valuation of December is not low, and it has returned to the stage mainly driven by spot (price increase announcements & implementation). In the case of repeated geopolitical situations, the upward space of far - month contracts is larger [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 are 1100.1, 1682.0, 1522.0, 1155.1, and 1330.3 respectively, with daily increases of 0.29%, 1.65%, 3.40%, 2.77%, and 3.68%. The position of EC2510 decreased by 628, while that of EC2512 increased by 442 [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 are - 581.9 and 160.0 respectively, with daily decreases of 24.1 and 22.7 [1]. 3.2 Shipping Indexes - **SCHIC**: Updated every Monday, the value on October 20, 2025, is 1140.38 points, with a 10.52% increase from the previous period [1]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, the value on October 17, 2025, is 1145 dollars/TEU, with a 7.21% increase from the previous period [1]. - **CCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, the value on October 17, 2025, is 1267.91 points, with a 1.49% decrease from the previous period [1]. - **NCFI**: Updated every week, the value on October 17, 2025, is 803.21 points, with a 14.96% increase from the previous period [1]. 3.3 Shipping Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The average weekly capacities in October, November, and December are 269,000, 316,000, and 350,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended, they are 269,000, 300,000, and 330,000 TEU. The capacities in week 44 and 45 are 334,000 and 300,000 TEU respectively, indicating high supply pressure [1]. - **Demand**: Currently in the off - season, the cargo collection in week 42 was good, and that in week 43 of the OA alliance was good with a small amount of container use in the south. The cargo volume of PA and GEMINI was average. The supply - demand relationship maintained a weak balance. In week 44, with high capacity, the cargo - collection pressure increased significantly, especially for the PA alliance [1]. 3.4 Shipping Quotes - **Week 42**: The final offline prices of PA, GEMINI, and OA are 1500, 1600, and 1800 dollars respectively, with an average of 1640 dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market) [2]. - **Week 43**: The PA alliance continued to reduce the price by 100 dollars to 1400 dollars. The offline quotes of PA, GEMINI, and OA are 1400, 1600, and 1800 dollars respectively [8]. - **November Price Increase Announcements**: Shipping companies announced price increases mostly in the range of 2500 - 2700 dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market [8].

Report Overview - The report is a colored arbitrage morning report by the colored team of the research center on October 21, 2025, covering cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking for multiple metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin [1][2][4] Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The domestic spot price is 85,650, the LME spot price is 10,656; the domestic March price is 85,360, the LME March price is 10,680, with a ratio of 8.04. The spot import profit is - 888.92 [1] Zinc - The domestic spot price is 21,870, the LME spot price is 3,178, with a ratio of 6.88; the domestic March price is 21,880, the LME March price is 2,948, with a ratio of 5.80. The spot import profit is - 5,169.01 [1] Aluminum - The domestic spot price is 20,930, the LME spot price is 2,782, with a ratio of 7.52; the domestic March price is 20,920, the LME March price is 2,777, with a ratio of 7.54 [1] Lead - The domestic spot price is 16,900, the LME spot price is 1,935, with a ratio of 8.75; the domestic March price is 17,100, the LME March price is 1,977, with a ratio of 11.08 [3] Nickel - The domestic spot price is 123,550, the LME spot price is 14,935, with a ratio of 8.27. The spot import profit is - 1,445.62 [1] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 990, 970, 900, 890 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 524, 946, 1377, 1808 [4] Zinc - The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 35, 65, 90, 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 212, 330, 448, 566 [4] Aluminum - The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 25, 35, 40, 45 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 215, 332, 448, 565 [4] Lead - The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 15, 25, 60, 100 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 210, 317, 423, 530 [4] Nickel - The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 300, - 60, 180, 380 respectively [4] Tin - The 5 - 1 spread is - 460, and the theoretical spread is 5791 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are - 1215 and - 225 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 279 and 897 [4] Zinc - The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are - 55 and - 20 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 169 and 296 [4] Lead - The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are 175 and 190 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 192 and 305 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - For copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc, the Shanghai (three - continuous) ratios are 3.90, 4.08, 4.99, 0.96, 1.22, 0.78 respectively, and the London (three - continuous) ratios are 3.60, 3.87, 5.37, 0.93, 1.39, 0.67 respectively [5]

Report Overview - Report Title: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: October 21, 2025 [3] 1. Futures Contract Information - **Price Changes**: The closing price of the BU main contract on September 19 was 3420, dropping to 3156 on October 17, a daily change of -44 and a weekly change of -314. Different contract months (BU10 - BU03) also showed varying degrees of price declines [4]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume increased from 246,616 on September 19 to 312,542 on October 17, with a daily increase of 43,198 and a weekly increase of 68,738. The open interest rose from 409,431 to 358,277, with a daily increase of 4,924 and a weekly increase of 11,368 [4]. 2. Spot Market Information - **Market Prices**: Market prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast) all declined to varying degrees. For example, the Shandong market price decreased from 3520 on September 19 to 3380 on October 17, a daily decrease of 40 and a weekly decrease of 80 [4]. - **Warehouse Prices**: Prices at various warehouses (Zhenjiang, Foshan, Hongrun, Jingbo) also declined. For instance, the Zhenjiang warehouse price dropped from 3470 to 3320, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly decrease of 30 [4]. 3. Basis and Calendar Spread Information - **Basis**: The basis in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China) generally increased. For example, the Shandong basis (+80) climbed from 149 to 285, with a daily increase of 114 [4]. - **Calendar Spread**: Calendar spreads between different contract months (10 - 11, 10 - 12, etc.) showed different trends, with some spreads narrowing and others widening. For example, the 10 - 11 spread decreased from 180 to -78, a weekly decrease of 258 [4]. 4. Crack Spread and Profit Information - **Crack Spread**: The asphalt - Brent crack spread decreased from 244 to 193, a daily decrease of 52 [4]. - **Profit**: Profits of different types of refineries (asphalt - Ma Rui, ordinary refineries, Ma Rui - type refineries) also showed different trends. For example, the asphalt - Ma Rui profit decreased from 155 to 109, a daily decrease of 46 [4]. 5. Related Product Price Information - **Crude Oil**: The price of Brent crude oil decreased from 63.3 to 61.3, a daily increase of 0.2 and a weekly decrease of 2.0 [4]. - **Gasoline and Diesel**: The Shandong market prices of gasoline and diesel also declined. The gasoline price dropped from 7387 to 7281, a daily decrease of 39 and a weekly decrease of 106 [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and imports are likely to remain high in November. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, making inventory reduction difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland region. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it does not affect methanol profits [2]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream producers and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profits are around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differentials are fluctuating. LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New plants in 2025 will bring significant pressure [7]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of major producers are decreasing. The basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and import profits are around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. PDH profits are around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. Drawing production is at a neutral level. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or PDH plants have more maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The basis of the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, but the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the implementation of new production capacity and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The export counter - offer for caustic soda is FOB380. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stabilizing, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From October 14 to October 20, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2285 to 2278, and the South China spot price decreased from 2270 to 2253. Other regional prices also showed certain fluctuations [2]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Data**: From October 14 to October 20, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 785 on some days. The North China LL price decreased from 6890 to 6840, and the East China LL price remained at 7025 on some days. Other related prices and data also had corresponding changes [7]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Data**: From October 14 to October 20, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6260 to 6000, and the Northeast Asian propylene price remained at 750. The East China PP price and other related prices also showed fluctuations [7]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Data**: From October 14 to October 20, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price increased from 2425 to 2450, and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 835 to 822. The East China calcium - carbide - based PVC price increased from 4640 to 4680 [7].