1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 废钢早报 價in 研究中心黑色团队 2025/09/19 华东 स्क 中部 东北 日期 华南 西南 2025/09/125 | 2241 2329 原点 2072 2285 2261 2150 ~ l 隐ዘ 2284 2025/09/15 2242 2329 2071 2260 2152 2286 2025/09/16 2257 2333 2074 2270 2154 2025/09/17 2259 2333 2080 2268 2286 2169 2025/09/18= 译 2258 ~ 2332 原占 2081 2261 版d 2290 2170 ~ 环比 -1 -7 4 -1 1 1 沙钢重三价格 (含税) 镇江鸿泰剪切料价格（不含税） ◆ 2022 ↓ ● 2023 ↓ ● 2025 ◆ 2022 ◆ 2023 ◆ 2024 ◆ 2025 4,200 3,600 3,900 3,300 3,600 3,000 3,300 2,700 3,000 2,400 2,700 2,100 2,400 2,100 1,800 1月 ...

Group 1: Volatility Index Explanation - Financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the IV of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the IV change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the IV index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means IV is relatively higher, and a smaller difference means IV is relatively lower [3] Group 2: Volatility Data Graphs - The graphs show the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences of various financial and commodity options, including 300 Index, 50ETF, 1000 Index, 500ETF, silver, gold, soybean meal, corn, sugar, cotton, methanol, rubber, iron ore, PTA, crude oil, aluminum, PVC, rebar, zinc, urea, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [4] Group 3: Implied Volatility and Volatility Spread Quantiles - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current level of a variety's IV in history. A high quantile means the current IV is high, and a low quantile means the current IV is low. Volatility spread is the difference between the IV index and HV [5] - The implied volatility quantile rankings are as follows: 300 Index (0.83), 50ETF (0.74), PTA (0.19), etc., and the historical volatility quantile rankings are also presented [6]

研究中心能化团队 2025/09/18 原油成品油早报 | | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/09/11 | 62.37 | 66.37 | 69.85 | - | 0.36 | -4.00 | -0.02 | 197.93 | 16.76 | 228.19 | 29.47 | | 2025/09/12 | 62.69 | 66.99 | 70.20 | - | 0.45 | -4.30 | -0.02 | 198.54 | 16.40 | 229.00 | 29.19 | | 2025/09/15 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to be prone to rising and hard to fall in the third and fourth quarters of this year. If short - term bullish factors are realized and the price corrects, mid - term long positions can be considered below 79,500 yuan, or put options below 78,000 yuan can be sold [1]. - For aluminum, short - term fundamentals are acceptable. In a low - inventory situation, hold positions on dips and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. - Zinc shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern that may further differentiate. Short - term single - side positions can be used as a short - side allocation, and internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued to hold [2]. - Nickel has a weak short - term fundamental situation, and geopolitical risks have been alleviated to some extent. Continuous attention should be paid to the situation of the Indonesian forestry department taking over part of the world's largest nickel mine [3][4]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak. The short - term macro - aspect follows the anti - involution expectation, and attention should be paid to the situation of the Indonesian forestry department taking over part of the world's largest nickel mine [6]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7]. - Tin's short - term domestic fundamentals maintain a situation of weak supply and demand. Short - term observation is recommended, and long positions can be held near the cost line in the medium - long term [9]. - Industrial silicon is in a tight - balance state in September and October. In the medium - long term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom anchored by seasonal marginal costs [12]. - For lithium carbonate, in the context of a seasonal peak season, the monthly balance turns to continuous de - stocking after CATL's production reduction, but the de - stocking amplitude is small. Before the supply - side disturbance is realized, the price has strong downward support in the peak season [14]. Summary by Metal Types Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan and broke through on Thursday and Friday. The fundamentals remained resilient. Domestic social inventories did not accumulate despite increased imported copper arrivals, and downstream production was in the stage of consuming finished - product inventories. The domestic spot premium declined slightly, and the external - internal positive arbitrage had room. Macro - economically, copper benefits from the global fiscal and monetary double - loosening [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to July. Downstream construction improved, but overseas demand declined significantly. Inventories are expected to decline in September [1]. Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The domestic TC decreased slightly, and the imported TC increased. Smelting production decreased slightly in September due to concentrated maintenance. Overseas mine supply increased more than expected. Domestic demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience, and overseas European demand was average. The domestic social inventory continued to rise, and the overseas LME inventory decreased [2]. Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remained at a high level, the demand was weak overall, and the premium was stable recently. Domestic inventories increased slightly, and overseas warehouse receipts increased. Geopolitical risks in Indonesia have been alleviated, and attention should be paid to the situation of the Indonesian forestry department taking over part of the world's largest nickel mine [3][4]. Stainless Steel - Supply is expected to gradually resume as northern steel mills are affected by the military parade. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. Costs include stable ferronickel prices and slightly rising ferrochrome prices. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan remained stable, and warehouse receipts decreased slightly [6]. Lead - This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. Supply was expected to be tight, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000 tons. Demand improved slightly, but inventories were at a high level. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7]. Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. The supply of raw materials was tight in the short term, and it is expected to gradually increase after October. The demand for solder was limited, and the domestic inventory fluctuated. The LME inventory rebounded from a low level. It is recommended to observe in the short term and hold long positions near the cost line in the medium - long term [9]. Industrial Silicon - This week, leading enterprises in Xinjiang continued to resume production. Sichuan and Yunnan had stable production. In September and October, supply and demand were in a tight - balance state. In the medium - long term, the industrial silicon capacity was still in significant excess, and prices were expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [12]. Lithium Carbonate - This week, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. Affected by the expectation of CATL's production resumption, the futures market declined significantly in the middle of the week. The contradiction lies in the background of an uncompleted large - scale capacity expansion cycle and a still - surplus static supply - demand pattern, with resource - side compliance disturbances. In the peak season, the monthly balance turns to de - stocking after CATL's production reduction, but the de - stocking amplitude is small [14].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Iron Ore Morning Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: September 18, 2025 [2] Group 2: Spot Market Price and Changes - The latest price of the Platts 62 Index is 105.90, with a daily change of 0.40 and a weekly change of -1.75 [3] - For Newman powder, the price is 793, with no daily change and a weekly change of -2, and the import profit is -29.98 [3] - PB powder has a price of 795, a daily change of -2, a weekly change of -4, and an import profit of -12.30 [3] Other Spot Products - Various other iron ore products from different regions and types are listed, including their prices, daily and weekly changes, and import profits [3] Group 3: Futures Market Domestic Futures - On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the latest price of the i2601 contract is 804.5, with a daily change of 1.0 and a weekly change of -0.5, and the monthly spread is -41.0 [3] - The i2605 contract has a price of 782.5, a daily change of 0.5, a weekly change of 1.5, and a monthly spread of 22.0 [3] - The i2509 contract is priced at 763.5, with a daily change of 1.0 and a weekly change of -84.0, and the monthly spread is 19.0 [3] Overseas Futures - On the Singapore Exchange, the FE01 contract has a price of 103.24, a daily change of 0.91, and a weekly change of -0.46, and the monthly spread is 2.48 [3] - The FE05 contract is priced at 101.14, with a daily change of 1.09, a weekly change of -0.12, and a monthly spread of 2.10 [3] - The FE09 contract has a price of 105.72, a daily change of 0.22, and a weekly change of -1.03, and the monthly spread is -4.58 [3] Group 4: Basis and Spread Basis and Spread Information - The basis/inside - outside spread (in RMB) for different contracts is provided, including their latest values, daily and weekly changes [3]

Report Overview - The report is a macro asset market analysis released by the research center's macro team on September 18, 2025, covering global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and trading data of stock index futures and treasury bond futures [2][3] Global Asset Market Performance Bond Yields - **10 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields of major economies showed different trends. For example, the US 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 4.089 on September 17, 2025, with a latest change of 0.060, a one - week change of 0.042, a one - month change of - 0.203, and a one - year change of 0.388 [3] - **2 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: The US 2 - year Treasury bond yield was 3.540 on September 17, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.020, a one - week change of 0.050, and a one - year change of - 0.210 [3] Exchange Rates - **USD against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real was 5.305 on September 17, 2025, with a latest change of 0.14% and a one - month change of - 3.24% [3] - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB exchange rate was 7.104 on September 17, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.14%, a one - week change of - 0.24%, a one - month change of - 1.00%, and a one - year change of - 0.13% [3] Stock Indices - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: The S&P 500 index was 6600.350 on September 17, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.10%, a one - week change of 1.05%, a one - month change of 3.20%, and a one - year change of 20.64% [3] - **Emerging Economies' Stock Indices**: The emerging economies' stock index was 1347.850 on September 17, 2025, with a latest change of 0.59%, a one - week change of 3.09%, a one - month change of 6.98%, and a one - year change of 26.74% [3] Credit Bond Indices - Different credit bond indices, such as the US investment - grade credit bond index (3528.030 on September 17, 2025) and the euro - zone high - yield credit bond index (407.110 on September 17, 2025), showed various trends in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year changes [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The A - share index closed at 3876.34 with a 0.37% increase, the CSI 300 index closed at 4551.02 with a 0.61% increase, etc. [5] Valuation - The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 14.16 with a 0.07环比 change, and the PE (TTM) of the S&P 500 was 27.47 with a - 0.03环比 change [5] Risk Premium - The risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of the S&P 500 was - 0.45 with a - 0.06环比 change, and that of the German DAX was 2.52 with a 0.02环比 change [5] Fund Flows - The latest fund flow of A - shares was - 198.10, and the latest fund flow of the CSI 300 was 79.42 [5] Trading Volume - The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 23767.38, and the latest trading volume of the CSI 300 was 6084.54 [5] Basis and Spread - The basis of IF was 2.18 with a 0.05% spread, the basis of IH was 3.42 with a 0.12% spread, and the basis of IC was - 7.64 with a - 0.11% spread [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 closed at 108.155, 105.890, 107.855, and 105.760 respectively, with increases of 0.18%, 0.13%, 0.18%, and 0.14% [6] - The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M in the money market were 1.5536%, 1.5493%, and 1.5540% respectively, with daily changes of 5.00 BP, 5.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The trading logic is the transmission of port pressure to the inland. There is seasonal stocking demand and incremental stocking from the new Lianhong device in the inland, but the port will cause continuous reverse flow impact. The current price is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland behavior is crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. It's necessary to wait before bottom - fishing, considering import variables such as India's purchase from Iran and unplanned maintenance [2]. - Polyethylene: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream two - oil and coal - chemical industries are destocking, social inventory is flat, and downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is significant, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [3]. - Polypropylene: The upstream two - oil and mid - stream inventories are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The drawing production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on 01 is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [3]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. The northwest devices have seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent near - end export orders have slightly declined. The coal sentiment is positive, the semi - coke cost is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance; the FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: The daily changes of动力煤期货,江苏现货,华南现货,鲁南折盘面,西南折盘面,河北折盘面,西北折盘面,CFR中国,CFR东南亚,进口利润,主力基差,盘面MTO利润 are 0, - 8, - 5, 10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 5, 0 respectively [2]. Polyethylene - Price and Inventory Data: From September 11 to September 17, 2025, the price of Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 850 on September 12 - 17. The prices of North China LL, East China LL, East China LD, East China HD, LL美金, and LL美湾 had certain fluctuations. The import profit was - 76 on September 15 - 17. The主力期货 price and基差 also changed. The two - oil inventory was 66 throughout, and the仓单 increased from 11993 on September 11 to 12736 on September 15 - 17. The daily changes on September 17 compared to the previous day were 0, 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 10, 0, 0 [3]. Polypropylene - Price and Inventory Data: From September 11 to September 17, 2025, the prices of山东丙烯,东北亚丙烯,华东PP,华北PP,山东粉料,华东共聚,PP美金,PP美湾,出口利润,主力期货,基差,两油库存,仓单 had different changes. The daily changes on September 17 compared to the previous day were 0, 0, 10, - 8, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 10, 0, 0 [3]. PVC - Price and Profit Data: From September 11 to September 17, 2025, the prices of西北电石,山东烧碱,电石法 - 华东,乙烯法 - 华东,电石法 - 华南,电石法 - 西北,进口美金价 (CFR中国),出口利润,西北综合利润,华北综合利润,基差 (高端交割品) had certain changes. The daily change of西北电石 on September 17 compared to the previous day was 50, and other items had no change [3].

| | | | 钢材早报 | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/09/18 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/09/11 | 3150 | 3210 | 3250 | 3190 | 3240 | 3250 | | 2025/09/12 | 3190 | 3210 | 3290 | 3230 | 3240 | 3230 | | 2025/09/15 | 3190 | 3260 | 3290 | 3230 | 3330 | 3280 | | 2025/09/16 | 3220 | 3280 | 3310 | 3260 | 3360 | 3290 | | 2025/09/17 | 3180 | 3240 | 3270 | 3220 | 3360 | 3290 | | 变化 | -40 | -40 | -40 | -40 | 0 | 0 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津 ...

Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are $3681.00, $41.27, $1401.00, $1184.00, $64.52, and $10064.50 respectively, with changes of -$14.40, -$1.42, $10.00, -$3.00, $0.00, and -$55.00 [4]. - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 96.64, 1.19, 1.36, 146.46, and 1.67 respectively, with no changes [4]. Trading Data - The latest inventories of COMEX Silver, SHFE Silver, and SGE Silver are 16317.89, 1221.43, and 1283.61 respectively. The inventory of SHFE Silver decreased by 9.83 [5]. - The latest holdings of Gold ETF and Silver ETF are 975.66 and 15189.61 respectively, with decreases of 4.29 and 28.23 [5]. - The latest deferred - fee payment directions of SGE Silver and SGE Gold are 1 and 2 respectively, with no changes [5].

焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/9/18 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 同比 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1427.78 | 0.00 | -54.61 | -53.55 | -11.51% 高炉开工率 | 90.18 | | 4.39 | -0.04 | 7.87% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1680.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -55.00 | 7.69% 铁水日均产量 | 240.55 | | 11.71 | -0.11 | 7.69% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1605.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -55.00 | -10.34% 盘面05 | 1857 | -11.50 | 108.50 | 49.00 | -1.88% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1645.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -55.00 | -10.11% 盘面09 | 1895 ...