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甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250916
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 01:37
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The market is driven by the logic of port pressure being transmitted to the inland. Although there is seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment in the inland later, the port will continuously cause reverse flow impact. Currently, the price is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. With average valuation, inventory, and weak drivers, it's necessary to wait before bottom - fishing, considering import variables such as India's purchase of Iranian methanol and unplanned maintenance [2]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differences are fluctuating, with LD weakening. The maintenance in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is significant, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [6]. - **Polypropylene**: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral, and the markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventory of the middle and upper reaches is continuously accumulating. The summer seasonal maintenance of Northwest devices has a load center between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent near - end export orders have slightly declined. The coal sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [7]. 3. Data Summaries Methanol | Date |动力煤期货|江苏现货|华南现货|鲁南折盘面|西南折盘面|河北折盘面|西北折盘面|CFR中国|CFR东南亚|进口利润|主力基差|盘面MTO利润| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/09/09 | 801 | 2285 | 2273 | 2560 | 2520 | 2495 | 2698 | 263 | 323 | 14 | - 125 | - 1295 | | 2025/09/10 | 801 | 2302 | 2290 | 2590 | 2520 | 2565 | 2728 | 266 | 326 | - 3 | - 125 | - 1295 | | 2025/09/11 | 801 | 2292 | 2280 | 2590 | 2520 | 2565 | 2723 | 263 | 326 | 13 | - 110 | - 1295 | | 2025/09/12 | 801 | 2290 | 2275 | 2585 | 2520 | 2565 | 2723 | 263 | 326 | 13 | - 95 | - 1295 | | 2025/09/15 | 801 | 2295 | 2290 | 2580 | 2520 | 2565 | 2723 | 263 | 326 | 13 | - 100 | - 1295 | |日度变化| 0 | 5 | 15 | - 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - 5 | 0 | [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) | Date |东北亚乙烯|华北LL|华东LL|华东LD|华东HD|LL美金|LL美湾|进口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/09/09 | 840 | 7150 | 7275 | 9575 | 7400 | 855 | 840 | - 175 | 7229 | - 80 | 69 | 8411 | | 2025/09/10 | 840 | 7150 | 7275 | 9575 | 7400 | 840 | 840 | - 44 | 7226 | - 80 | 68 | 9298 | | 2025/09/11 | 840 | 7130 | 7275 | 9575 | 7400 | 840 | 840 | - 41 | 7209 | - 80 | 66 | 11993 | | 2025/09/12 | 850 | 7100 | 7240 | 9525 | 7400 | 840 | 840 | - 41 | 7169 | - 60 | 66 | 12525 | | 2025/09/15 | 850 | 7140 | 7240 | 9525 | 7400 | 840 | 840 | - 41 | 7232 | - 80 | 66 | 12736 | |日度变化| 0 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 63 | - 20 | 0 | 211 | [6] Polypropylene | Date |山东丙烯|东北亚丙烯|华东PP|华北PP|山东粉料|华东共聚|PP美金|PP美湾|出口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/09/09 | 6600 | 760 | 6840 | 6883 | 6780 | 7114 | 845 | 980 | - 15 | 6949 | - 110 | 69 | 13813 | | 2025/09/10 | 6650 | 760 | 6850 | 6883 | 6780 | 7114 | 845 | 947 | - 20 | 6948 | - 100 | 68 | 13749 | | 2025/09/11 | 6680 | 765 | 6840 | 6870 | 6780 | 7114 | 845 | 947 | - 19 | 6939 | - 110 | 66 | 13749 | | 2025/09/12 | 6680 | 770 | 6805 | 6865 | 6750 | 7078 | 840 | 947 | - 18 | 6913 | - 100 | 66 | 13706 | | 2025/09/15 | 6580 | 770 | 6815 | 6863 | 6770 | 7078 | 840 | 947 | - 18 | 6966 | - 120 | 66 | 13706 | |日度变化| - 100 | 0 | 10 | - 2 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53 | - 20 | 0 | 0 | [7] PVC | Date |西北电石|山东烧碱|电石法 - 华东|乙烯法 - 华东|电石法 - 华南|电石法 - 西北|进口美金价(CFR中国)|出口利润|西北综合利润|华北综合利润|基差(高端交割品)| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/09/09 | 2400 | 897 | 4720 | 5500 | 5450 | 4450 | 700 | 534 | 356 | - 244 | - 160 | | 2025/09/10 | 2400 | 897 | 4740 | 5500 | 5450 | 4450 | 700 | 408 | 356 | - 244 | - 160 | | 2025/09/11 | 2400 | 892 | 4750 | 5500 | 5450 | 4450 | 700 | 409 | 356 | - 244 | - 150 | | 2025/09/12 | 2400 | 890 | 4750 | 5500 | 5450 | 4450 | 700 | 409 | 356 | - 244 | - 150 | | 2025/09/15 | 2400 | 890 | 4750 | 5500 | 5450 | 4450 | 700 | 409 | 356 | - 244 | - 150 | |日度变化| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | [7]
油脂油料早报-20250916
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 01:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents overnight market information on oilseeds and oils, including export data from various countries, planting progress in Brazil, and import data from India, along with spot price data [1][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - As of the week ending September 11, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 804,352 tons, better than the market forecast of 200,000 - 730,000 tons, and the export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop - year was 1,068,204 tons, compared with 747,598 tons in the same period of the previous year [1] - As of last Thursday, the sowing of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop was 0.12% complete, slightly higher than 0.06% in the same period of the previous year. The new - year soybean output is expected to reach a record high of 180 million tons. The sowing area of the first - season corn crop was 17% of the estimated area, lower than 19% in the same period of the previous year [1] - India's palm oil imports in August increased by 15.76% month - on - month to 990,528 tons; soybean oil imports decreased by 25.27% to 367,917 tons; sunflower oil imports increased by 28.53% to 257,080 tons [1] - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from September 1 - 15 increased by 2.6% month - on - month to 742,648 tons [1] - As of the week ending September 7, Canada's rapeseed exports decreased by 1.5% week - on - week to 47,200 tons. From August 1 to September 7, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports were 529,500 tons, a 53.4% decrease compared to the same period of the previous year. As of September 7, the commercial rapeseed inventory was 516,200 tons [1] Spot Prices - Spot price data for soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 9 - 15, 2025 are presented [6]
农产品早报-20250916
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 01:32
Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, new - season corn is about to be listed, demand from enterprises for old corn is decreasing, and prices are weak. But due to low inventory levels, the decline is expected to be small, maintaining a weak oscillation. In the long - term, with increased production and lower costs, prices are expected to decline until consumption improves or there is reluctance to sell in production areas [3] - Starch: In the short - term, as the cost of purchasing grain decreases, the industry is expected to lower the price of starch to reduce inventory. In the long - term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs lead to a bearish view on starch prices [3] - Sugar: Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, pressuring international sugar prices. There is uncertainty about future production. Domestically, it follows the trend of raw sugar, with increasing imported sugar and downward - adjusted processed sugar prices, creating pressure on the market [6] - Cotton: The market has entered an oscillation phase, waiting for demand verification. If there are no major macro - risks, the April low may be the long - term bottom, and the downward space for cotton prices is limited. Attention should be paid to changes in demand [9] - Eggs: In August, due to sufficient inventory in food factories and reduced demand, egg prices declined. Since September, with school openings and holiday preparations, prices have rebounded, but the rebound is restricted by high cold - storage egg inventory, and the progress of culling laying hens has slowed down [13] - Apples: The new - season apple harvest is approaching. The national production may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the market share is being squeezed by seasonal fruits. Attention should be paid to the final production [17] - Pigs: The market is in a range - bound oscillation. There are policy expectations for a production capacity inflection point next year and seasonal support factors this year, but mid - term supply pressure remains due to insufficient production capacity reduction. In September, there is large potential supply pressure, and the market is waiting for verification of spot prices [17] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From 2025/09/09 to 2025/09/15, prices in some regions changed. For example, the price in潍坊 decreased by 6 yuan, and the price in蛇口 decreased by 10 yuan. The basis increased by 30, and the import profit decreased by 51 [2] - **Market Analysis**: Short - term price is weak due to approaching new - season supply and reduced demand. Long - term price is pressured by increased production and lower costs [3] Sugar - **Price Data**: From 2025/09/09 to 2025/09/15, the basis decreased by 9, and the import profit decreased by 56. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 280 [6] - **Market Analysis**: International supply pressure from Brazil affects prices. Domestically, imported sugar arrival and price adjustment of processed sugar create market pressure [6] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From 2025/09/09 to 2025/09/15, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 55 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 116. The 32S spinning profit decreased by 58 [9] - **Market Analysis**: The market is in an oscillation phase, and the downward space is limited if there are no major macro - risks. Attention should be paid to demand changes [9] Eggs - **Price Data**: From 2025/09/09 to 2025/09/15, prices in major production areas increased, with the largest increase of 0.22 yuan in Hubei. The basis increased by 149 [13] - **Market Analysis**: August price decline was due to demand reduction, and September price rebound was affected by seasonal factors but restricted by high inventory [13] Apples - **Price Data**: From 2025/09/09 to 2025/09/15, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable. The national inventory increased by 25, and the Shandong inventory increased by 32 [16][17] - **Market Analysis**: New - season production may be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the market share is squeezed by seasonal fruits [17] Pigs - **Price Data**: From 2025/09/09 to 2025/09/15, prices in major production areas decreased, with the largest decrease of 0.30 yuan in Jiangsu Nantong. The basis decreased by 170 [17] - **Market Analysis**: The market is in a range - bound oscillation, with mid - term supply pressure and waiting for spot price verification [17]
燃料油早报-20250916
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 01:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Views - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst oscillated, the near - month spread oscillated, the basis strengthened, the EW spread oscillated at a high level, and the fluctuation of the near - month of FU inside and outside was intensified due to delivery factors. The low - sulfur cracking weakened rapidly, the spread weakened at an accelerated pace, the LU inside - outside spread was compressed to 6 - 7 US dollars/ton, and the MF0.5 basis oscillated [3]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residue decreased by 871,000 barrels, floating storage was slightly destocked, ARA residue inventory increased significantly, and EIA residue continued to accumulate. The high - sulfur peak season in the Middle East has passed. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore is supported, and the EW spread repair is completed. The domestic high - sulfur spread has risen again due to the influence of the delivery warehouse, and the short - term inside - outside spread is repaired. This week, LU accelerated its decline, and the MF0.5 basis of the outer market was weakly operating. Due to the support of gasoline and diesel cracking in Europe and the United States, the opportunity for the low - sulfur to high - sulfur spread to widen in the fourth quarter can be concerned [4]. Summary by Directory Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From September 9 - 15, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed by - 3.94, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed by - 2.67, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed by - 0.49, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed by 4.90, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed by - 7.57, LGO - Brent M1 changed by 0.25, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed by 1.27 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From September 9 - 15, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed, Singapore 180cst M1 changed, Singapore VLSFO M1 changed, Singapore GO M1 changed, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From September 9 - 15, 2025, the FOB 380cst price changed by 7.31, FOB VLSFO price changed by 14.85, 380 basis changed by - 0.85, high - sulfur inside - outside spread and low - sulfur inside - outside spread had relevant data changes [2]. Domestic FU Data - From September 9 - 15, 2025, FU 01 changed by 82, FU 05 changed by 59, FU 09 changed by 37, FU 01 - 05 changed by 23, FU 05 - 09 changed by 22, and FU 09 - 01 changed by - 45 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From September 9 - 15, 2025, LU 01 changed by 90, LU 05 changed by 66, LU 09 changed by 74, LU 01 - 05 changed by 24, LU 05 - 09 changed by - 8, and LU 09 - 01 changed by - 16 [3].
动力煤早报-20250916
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 01:19
声明 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 685.0 4.0 1.0 -14.0 -170.0 25省终端可用天数 21.7 -0.2 1.8 0.8 4.1 秦皇岛5000 594.0 5.0 -1.0 -38.0 -161.0 25省终端供煤 600.7 0.9 -7.9 -39.4 -22.2 广州港5500 755.0 0.0 0.0 -10.0 -155.0 北方港库存 2065.0 41.0 49.0 -21.0 -91.9 鄂尔多斯5500 475.0 10.0 10.0 -10.0 -145.0 北方锚地船舶 81.0 -1.0 23.0 2.0 -30.0 大同5500 530.0 10.0 10.0 -25.0 -180.0 北方港调入量 160.4 -2.4 27.2 6.4 1.1 榆林6000 602.0 0.0 0.0 -20.0 -197.0 北方港吞吐量 153.4 -14.6 13.3 16.3 -7.2 榆林6200 630.0 0.0 0.0 -20.0 -195.0 CBCFI海运指数 636.7 32.3 56. ...
废钢早报-20250916
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 01:18
废钢早报 價in 研究中心黑色团队 2025/09/16 华东 स्क 中部 东北 日期 华南 西南 2025/09/09 2237 2071 2269 2285 2331 原点 2152 ~ (图H 2285 2025/09/10 2238 2331 2070 2266 2153 2025/09/11 2285 2241 2330 2071 2267 2152 2025/09/12 2241 2329 2072 2261 2285 2150 2025/09/15= 容 2242 2329 原占 2071 2260 原d 2284 2152 ~ 环比 0 -1 2 1 -1 -1 沙钢重三价格 (含税) 镇江鸿泰剪切料价格(不含税) ◆ 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ● 2025 ● 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ↓ 2025 3,600元/吨 4,200元/吨 3,900 3,300 3,600 3,000 3,300 2,700 3,000 2,400 2,700 2,100 2,400 2,100 1,800 品因H 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12 ...
原油成品油早报-20250915
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 12:06
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that oil prices closed higher this week, with absolute price fluctuations intensifying due to geopolitical news. The US proposed extensive sanctions on Russian energy, urging G7 allies to impose a 100% tariff on Russian oil purchases. Fundamentally, the global oil market is in a state of inventory build - up, with US EIA commercial crude oil and refined products inventories increasing, and global refinery profits declining. In the baseline scenario, there will be an oversupply of over 200,000 barrels per day in the fourth - quarter oil balance sheet, and an expected oversupply of 180,000 - 250,000 barrels per day in 2026. The fundamentals are turning to the off - season, and the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The report expects the absolute price center in the fourth quarter to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of US sanctions on Russia and its potential influence on Russian supply [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From September 8 to September 12, 2025, WTI crude oil prices increased by $0.32, BRENT by $0.62, and DUBAI by $0.35. Other related refined products and by - products also showed various price changes. For example, domestic gasoline prices decreased by $50, and domestic diesel prices decreased by $35 [3]. 3.2 News - Trump stated that when all NATO countries stop buying Russian oil, he will impose major sanctions on Russia, aiming to end the Russia - Ukraine war and save lives. He also threatened new economic sanctions on Russia due to the stalled cease - fire negotiation efforts [3]. - The US proposed that the G7 impose extensive sanctions on Russian energy, including a 100% tariff on Russian oil purchases and the creation of a legal way to confiscate frozen Russian sovereign assets to fund Ukraine's defense [3]. - The US Energy Secretary said the EU may phase out Russian natural gas in 6 - 12 months and replace it with US LNG [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of September 5, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.139 million barrels per day to 2.745 million barrels per day, while domestic crude oil production increased by 72,000 barrels to 13.495 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.939 million barrels to 425 million barrels, with a growth rate of 0.94%. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.888 million barrels per day, a 1.97% increase year - on - year. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 514,000 barrels to 405.2 million barrels, with a growth rate of 0.13%. Crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 471,000 barrels per day to 6.271 million barrels per day [4]. - From August 22 - 29, the operating rate of major refineries and Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated weakly, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries declined month - on - month [4].
燃料油早报-20250915
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 09:28
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, the cracking of high-sulfur 380cst in Singapore fluctuated, the spread of near-month contracts oscillated, the basis strengthened, the EW spread oscillated at a high level, and the fluctuation of the near-month spread between domestic and foreign FU contracts intensified due to delivery factors. The cracking of low-sulfur fuel oil weakened rapidly, the spread of contracts weakened at an accelerated pace, and the spread between domestic and foreign LU contracts compressed to $6 - 7 per ton, with the basis of MF0.5 oscillating [4]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residue inventory decreased by 871,000 barrels, floating storage decreased slightly, ARA residue inventory increased significantly, and EIA residue inventory continued to increase. The peak season for high-sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East has passed. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high-sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provides support, and the EW spread has completed its repair. The spread between domestic and foreign high-sulfur fuel oil has risen again due to the impact of delivery warehouses, with short-term repair between domestic and foreign markets. This week, LU prices declined at an accelerated pace, and the basis of the overseas MF0.5 contract was weak. Given the support of gasoline and diesel cracking in Europe and the United States, the opportunity for the spread between low-sulfur and high-sulfur fuel oil to widen in the fourth quarter can be monitored [5]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Prices - From September 8 - 12, 2025, prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 fluctuated between $372.49 - $380.24, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 between $429.51 - $439.86, etc., with some prices remaining unchanged on September 11 - 12 [2]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Prices - From September 8 - 12, 2025, prices of Singapore 380cst M1 fluctuated between $388.46 - $395.14, Singapore 180cst M1 between $397.37 - $399.61, etc., with the spread of Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 decreasing by $0.12 [2]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Prices - From September 8 - 12, 2025, FOB 380cst prices fluctuated between $388.92 - $396.90, FOB VLSFO between $463.14 - $469.80, etc., with no change in prices on September 11 - 12 [3]. Domestic FU Contract Prices - From September 8 - 12, 2025, FU 01 prices fluctuated between 2679 - 2802, FU 05 between 2693 - 2754, etc., with changes of -85, -61, -37 for FU 01, FU 05, FU 09 respectively [3]. Domestic LU Contract Prices - From September 8 - 12, 2025, LU 01 prices fluctuated between 3259 - 3385, LU 05 between 3259 - 3347, etc., with changes of -105, -74, -74 for LU 01, LU 05, LU 09 respectively [4].
波动率数据日报-20250915
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 07:53
Group 1: Volatility Index Explanation - Financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day, while the commodity option implied volatility index is weighted by the IV of the upper and lower two - strike options of the front - month at - the - money options, showing the IV change trend of the front - month contract [2] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means IV is relatively higher than HV, and a smaller difference means IV is relatively lower [2] Group 2: Volatility Data Chart - The chart shows the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences of various financial and commodity options, including 300 Index, 50ETF, 1000 Index, 500ETF, and many commodity options such as silver, soybean meal, corn, etc [3] Group 3: Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile - Implied volatility quantile represents the current level of a variety's IV in history. A high quantile means the current IV is high, and a low quantile means the current IV is low. Volatility spread is the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility [4] - The implied volatility quantile rankings of different varieties are presented, such as 300 Index with a quantile of 0.63, 50ETF with 0.73, PTA with 0.22, etc [5]
铁矿石早报-20250915
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 05:27
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