1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall in Q3 and Q4 this year. If short - term bullish factors are realized and the price corrects, mid - term long positions can be considered below 79,500 yuan, or put options below 78,000 yuan can be sold [1]. - For aluminum, with a small increase in supply and improved downstream开工, 9 - month inventory is expected to decline. Hold at low prices in a low - inventory pattern and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse hedging [1]. - Zinc prices are in a narrow range this week. The current internal - weak and external - strong pattern may further differentiate. Short - term unilateral can be used as a short position, and internal - external positive hedging can continue to be held [2]. - Nickel's short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, and the geopolitical risk has been alleviated. Continue to pay attention to the news that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau has taken over part of the world's largest nickel mine [3][4]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak. The short - term macro - level follows the anti - involution expectation, and pay attention to the news of the Indonesian nickel mine [6]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan. Demand has improved slightly, but inventory is at a high level [7]. - Tin prices are in wide - range fluctuations this week. The short - term domestic fundamentals are in a situation of dual weakness in supply and demand. Short - term observation is recommended, and hold at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [9]. - For industrial silicon, 9 and 10 - month supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. In the long - term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom anchored by seasonal marginal costs [13]. - Lithium carbonate prices fluctuate widely this week. Before the supply - side disturbance is realized, the price support is strong during the peak season [15]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan and broke through on Thursday and Friday. The domestic social inventory did not accumulate, and downstream开工 decreased month - on - month. The domestic spot premium declined slightly, and the internal - external positive hedging has room [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, downstream开工 improved, overseas demand declined significantly, and 9 - month inventory is expected to decline. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and pay attention to demand [1]. Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Domestic production TC decreased slightly, and imported TC increased. 9 - month smelting output decreased slightly month - on - month. Domestic social inventory continued to rise, and overseas LME inventory decreased. The current internal - weak and external - strong pattern may further differentiate [2]. Nickel - Supply remained at a high level, demand was weak overall, domestic inventory increased slightly, and overseas inventory increased due to warehouse delivery. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the geopolitical risk has been alleviated [3][4]. Stainless Steel - Supply is expected to resume gradually, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory is maintained. Fundamentals are weak, and follow the anti - involution expectation in the short - term [6]. Lead - Lead prices rose due to macro - factors this week. Supply is expected to be tight, demand has improved slightly, but inventory is at a high level. Prices are expected to fluctuate significantly next week [7]. Tin - Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply is short - term tight, demand has limited elasticity, and domestic inventory fluctuates. The short - term domestic fundamentals are in a situation of dual weakness in supply and demand [9]. Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang's leading enterprises continued to resume production this week. 9 and 10 - month supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. In the long - term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely this week. Affected by the expectation of CATL's resumption of production, the futures price dropped significantly. The current contradiction lies in the supply - side disturbance under the background of over - capacity [15].

Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are 3629.55, 41.08, 1389.00, 1183.00, 62.37, and 10119.50 respectively. The price of LME Copper has changed by 121.50, while the others remain unchanged [2]. - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 97.53, 1.17, 1.36, 147.22, and 1.70 respectively. The value of US 10 - year TIPS has changed by 0.03, while the others remain unchanged [2]. Trading Data - The latest inventories of COMEX Silver, SHFE Silver, and SGE Silver are 16314.19, 1246.57, and 1281.86 respectively. The inventory of SHFE Silver has changed by 6.38, while the others remain unchanged [3]. - The latest holdings of Gold ETF and Silver ETF are 977.95 and 15068.23 respectively, with no change [3]. - The latest deferred fee payment directions of SGE Silver and SGE Gold are 1 and 1 respectively. The deferred fee payment direction of SGE Gold has changed by - 1.00, while that of SGE Silver remains unchanged [3].

焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/9/15 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1482.39 | 0.00 | -53.55 | 1.06 | -8.13% 高炉开工率 | 90.18 | | 4.39 | -0.04 | 7.87% | | 河北准一湿熄 | 1725.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | 0.00 | -4.43% 铁水日均产量 | 240.55 | | 11.71 | -0.11 | 7.69% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1660.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | 0.00 | -10.03% 盘面05 | 1749.5 | 1.00 | 16.00 | -63.50 | -4.71% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1700.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | 0.00 | -9.81% 盘面09 | 1500 | -12.50 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, on September 15, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5250 and 5280 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and -30, and weekly changes of 50 and 30. The latest prices of the main contract and 01 contract were 5608 and 5574, with daily changes of -18 and -14, and weekly changes of 10 and 20 [1]. - For silicon manganese, on September 15, 2025, the latest prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, and Guangxi 6517 were 5650, 5600, and 5650 respectively. The latest price of the main contract was 5832 [1]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly and weekly production, and capacity utilization in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly production and enterprise - level production data [6]. Demand - The demand data of silicon iron and silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including estimated and actual consumption in related industries such as steel and magnesium production [4][7]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample silicon iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including total inventory and inventory in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi. Also, data on warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory available days are provided [5]. - The inventory data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory of 63 sample enterprises [7]. Cost and Profit - The cost - related data of silicon iron and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including electricity prices, raw material prices, and production costs. Profit - related data such as production profit, export profit, and profit after discounting to the main contract are also provided [5][7].

Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on September 12, 2025, was 4990.00, with a previous day's closing price of 5016.00 and a decline of -0.51834% [3] - The corresponding US dollar price was 611.31, and the basis for Shandong Yinxing was 675, while that for Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing was 690 [3] Group 2: Pulp Price and Profit Information - For pulp from different origins and brands, such as Golden Lion from Canada (CFR price of 780), Lion from Canada (CFR price of 730), and Yinxing from Chile (CFR letter of credit 90 - day price of 720), the import profits were -145.57, -533.29, and -197.83 respectively [4] Group 3: Pulp and Paper Price Averages - From September 8 to September 12, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively. The same was true for the Shandong region [4] - The prices of cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and living paper (living index) also remained unchanged during this period [4] Group 4: Paper Profit Margin Information - The estimated profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white - card paper, and living paper on September 12, 2025, were 2.9521%, 18.9325%, -12.6626%, and 8.0245% respectively. The living paper profit margin increased by 0.2674 compared to previous days [4] Group 5: Pulp Price Spread Information - On September 12, 2025, the price spreads between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood and waste paper were 1505.00, 265, 1840, and 4089 respectively [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Coking Coal Daily Report - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center - Report Date: September 15, 2025 [1] Price Information Spot Prices - The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1401.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 9.00, a monthly decrease of 3.00, and an annual increase of 0.07% [2] - The latest price of Raw Coal Port Pick-up Price is 935.00, with a daily decrease of 8.00, a weekly decrease of 15.00, a monthly decrease of 61.00, and an annual decrease of 18.70% [2] - The latest price of Shaheyi Meng 5 is 1350.00, with a daily decrease of 30.00, a weekly decrease of 30.00, a monthly decrease of 30.00, and an annual decrease of 18.18% [2] - The latest price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1420.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly decrease of 50.00, and an annual decrease of 16.47% [2] Futures Prices - The latest price of Futures Contract 05 is 1220.50, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 3.00, a monthly decrease of 50.50, and an annual decrease of 1.25% [2] - The latest price of Futures Contract 09 is 958.00, with a daily decrease of 19.50, a weekly increase of 28.50, a monthly decrease of 118.00, and an annual decrease of 21.25% [2] - The latest price of Futures Contract 01 is 1137.50, with a daily increase of 3.00, a weekly decrease of 5.00, a monthly decrease of 86.00, and an annual decrease of 6.84% [2] Inventory Information - The total inventory is 3316.37, with a weekly decrease of 89.59, a monthly decrease of 107.20, and an annual decrease of 12.25% [2] - The coal mine inventory is 254.52, with a weekly decrease of 13.56, a monthly decrease of 3.15, and an annual decrease of 17.86% [2] - The port inventory is 275.49, with a weekly increase of 0.14, a monthly decrease of 1.85, and an annual decrease of 31.83% [2] - The steel mill coking coal inventory is 795.76, with a weekly decrease of 16.09, a monthly decrease of 12.90, and an annual increase of 10.78% [2] - The coking plant coking coal inventory is 920.05, with a weekly decrease of 41.22, a monthly decrease of 67.87, and an annual increase of 7.72% [2] Other Information - The coking capacity utilization rate is 75.92, with a weekly increase of 2.78, a monthly increase of 1.58, and an annual increase of 9.74% [2] - The coking plant coke inventory is 85.93, with a weekly increase of 1.62, a monthly decrease of 0.24, and an annual decrease of 0.26% [2] - The 05 basis is -35.79, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 49.87, a monthly decrease of 17.32, and an annual decrease of 363.81 [2] - The 09 basis is 226.71, with a daily increase of 19.50, a weekly decrease of 81.37, a monthly increase of 50.18, and an annual decrease of 0.35 [2] - The 01 basis is 47.21, with a daily decrease of 3.00, a weekly decrease of 47.87, a monthly increase of 18.18, and an annual decrease of 0.86 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is 262.50, with a daily increase of 19.50, a weekly decrease of 31.50, a monthly increase of 67.50, and an annual increase of 12.46 [2] - The 9 - 1 spread is -179.50, with a daily decrease of 22.50, a weekly increase of 33.50, a monthly decrease of 32.00, and an annual increase of 38.89 [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is -83.00, with a daily increase of 3.00, a weekly decrease of 2.00, a monthly decrease of 35.50, and an annual increase of 4.53 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol market is trading on the logic of port pressure传导 to the inland. Inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment, but port backflow will impact inland valuation. Current valuation, inventory, and drivers are not favorable for bottom - fishing, and import variables need attention [2] - For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral, 09 basis varies by region, import profit is around - 200 with no further increment. 9 - month maintenance is flat, domestic linear production decreases. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6] - In the polypropylene market, upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. Valuation shows a basis of - 60, non - standard price spread is neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and 01 contract may face supply pressure, which can be alleviated by export volume or PDH device maintenance [8] - For PVC, the basis is stable, downstream开工 is seasonally weak, and mid - upstream inventories are accumulating. Q4 should focus on production commissioning and export continuity. Static inventory contradiction accumulates slowly, and attention should be paid to export, coal price, etc. [8] 3. Summary by Product Methanol - Price data from 2025/09/08 - 2025/09/12 shows changes in动力煤期货, spot prices in different regions, CFR prices, import profit,主力基差, and盘面MTO利润. There are slight daily changes in some prices, and the盘面MTO利润 increases by 15 [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) - From 2025/09/08 - 2025/09/12, data on东北亚乙烯, various polyethylene prices in different regions, import profit,主力期货,基差,两油库存, and仓单 are presented. There are daily changes in some prices and inventory data, such as a 30 - unit decrease in华北LL price and a 40 - unit decrease in主力期货 price [6] PP (Polypropylene) - Price and inventory data from 2025/09/08 - 2025/09/12 include山东丙烯,东北亚丙烯, various PP prices in different regions, export profit,主力期货,基差,两油库存, and仓单. Some prices change daily, like a 35 - unit decrease in华东PP price and a 26 - unit decrease in主力期货 price [8] PVC - Data from 2025/09/08 - 2025/09/12 covers西北电石,山东烧碱, different PVC prices in regions, import美金价,出口利润,综合利润, and基差. There are minor daily changes, such as a 2 - unit decrease in山东烧碱 price [8]

Group 1: Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products from September 8th to September 12th, 2025, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Wuhan's rebar, as well as Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong's hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils [1]. - For rebar, the price changes from September 8th to 12th are 40 for Beijing, 0 for Shanghai, 40 for Chengdu, 40 for Xi'an, 0 for Guangzhou, and - 20 for Wuhan [1]. - For hot - rolled coils, the price changes from September 8th to 12th are 0 for Tianjin, 40 for Shanghai, and 70 for Lecong [1]. - For cold - rolled coils, the price changes from September 8th to 12th are 0 for Tianjin, 0 for Shanghai, and 60 for Lecong [1]. Group 2: Basis and Spread - No specific content is provided in the given materials regarding this aspect [10]. Group 3: Production and Inventory - No specific content is provided in the given materials regarding this aspect [11]. Group 4: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given materials. Group 5: Report's Core View - No clear core view is presented in the given materials. It mainly shows the spot price data of different steel products over a period of time [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - No explicit core view is presented in the provided content. The report mainly presents the performance data of various global asset markets. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: On September 12, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc., were 4.022, 4.606, 3.441 respectively. There were no latest changes, but significant weekly, monthly, and yearly changes were observed. For example, the US had a one - year change of 0.266, while Italy had a one - year change of - 0.206 [3]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: On September 12, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc., were 3.540, 3.927, 1.983 respectively. Weekly, monthly, and yearly changes also varied. For instance, the US had a one - year change of - 0.020, while Japan had a one - year change of 0.484 [3]. - **USD Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: As of September 12, 2025, the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, etc., were 5.389, 108.000 respectively. There were no latest changes, and weekly, monthly, and yearly changes differed. For example, the Brazilian real had a one - year change of - 4.48% against the US dollar [3]. - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: On September 12, 2025, the values of the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, etc., were 6587.470, 46108.000 respectively. There were no latest changes, but weekly, monthly, and yearly changes were notable. For example, the S&P 500 had a one - year change of 19.34% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: There were no latest changes in the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, etc. Weekly, monthly, and yearly changes were positive in most cases. For example, the US high - yield credit bond index had a one - year change of 8.93% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, etc., were 3870.60, 4522.00 respectively, with different percentage changes. For example, the A - shares had a change of - 0.12% [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 14.13, 11.90 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premiums of the CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 3.70, 5.77 respectively, with no环比 changes [5]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values of A - shares, the main board, etc., were 1342.66, 657.95 respectively [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc., were 25209.25, 6895.76 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC were 1.20, 0.06, - 7.75 respectively, with corresponding basis spreads [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Percentage Changes**: The closing prices of T00, TF00, etc., were 107.880, 105.760 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.14%, 0.19% respectively [6]. - **Funding Rates and Daily Changes**: The funding rates of R001, R007, etc., were 1.3979%, 1.4651% respectively, with daily changes of - 9.00BP, - 2.00BP respectively [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the October contract, the downside space is limited, and it's recommended to take profit and close positions [1]. - The December contract has a relatively high valuation but has multiple upward drivers (such as shipping companies' multiple price - support measures and main funds' position transfer), so it should be treated with a cautiously bullish mindset [1]. - Since the Spring Festival in 2026 is late (February 17, 2026), the settlement price of the February 2026 contract may be high, and its current valuation is low. The cost - performance of long - allocation for the February contract is higher than that of the December contract. To avoid the potential price - cutting risk of shipping companies in October, a long - short spread strategy for the February - April contracts can be deployed [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Contract Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The EC2510 contract closed at 1157.6, down 3.84%; EC2512 at 1610.2, up 0.07%; EC2602 at 1500.8, up 0.23%; EC2604 at 1230.4, down 0.93%; EC2606 at 1410.5, down 1.41% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of EC2510 was 27358, and the open interest was 47611 with a decrease of 1896; for EC2512, the trading volume was 9853, and the open interest was 19637 with an increase of 612; for EC2602, the trading volume was 1680, and the open interest was 6327 with an increase of 326; for EC2604, the trading volume was 966, and the open interest was 7993 with an increase of 202; for EC2606, the trading volume was 155, and the open interest was 997 with an increase of 34 [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The EC2510 - 2512 spread was - 452.6, a daily decrease of 47.3 and a weekly decrease of 78.6; the EC2512 - 2602 spread was 109.4, a daily decrease of 2.3 and a weekly decrease of 37.0 [1]. Spot Market Data - **Shipping Company Quotes**: In Week 39, the average quote of shipping companies was 1640 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). The offline quote of YML decreased by 100 to 1550 US dollars, and that of MSC decreased by 150 to 1590 US dollars [1]. - **Index Changes**: The SCFI (European line) index was 1154 US dollars/TEU, down 12.24%; the CCFI index was 1537.28 points, down 6.19%; the NCFI index was 729.42 points, down 14.78% [1]. Recent European Line Quotation Situation - Currently, downstream customers are booking space for mid - September (Week 37 - 38) [2]. - Week 37: The average quote was 2100 US dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the futures market), with MSK quoting 1900 US dollars (later rising to 1950), PA at 2100 - 2150, and OA at 2100 - 2300 [3]. - Week 38: The average quote was 1800 US dollars (equivalent to 1260 points on the futures market), with MSK quoting 1700 US dollars (later rising to 1760), PA and MSC at 1800 - 1950, and OA at 1650 - 2020 [3]. - Week 39: The average quote was 1640 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market), with MSK quoting 1500 US dollars (later rising to 1560), PA Alliance at 1550 - 1600 US dollars, and OA Alliance at 1540 - 1735 US dollars [3].