Report General Information - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report [1] - Report Date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Report Team: Research Center Agricultural Products Team [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Corn: In the short - term, new - season corn is about to be listed, market sentiment is cautious, and port spot prices are weak, causing the futures price to decline. Supply increase is limited, so there is no expectation of a sharp drop. In the long - term, with increased production and lower costs, prices are expected to decline until consumption improves or farmers show reluctance to sell [4]. - Starch: Near the end of the season, spot prices continue to decline. In the short - term, it fluctuates with raw material prices, and high inventory pressures prices. In the long - term, high inventory restricts price adjustment space, and new - season raw material cost expectations are lower [4]. - Sugar: Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing period, pressuring international sugar prices. Domestic prices follow the international market, with imported sugar arriving and processed sugar prices dropping [6]. - Cotton: It has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. Without major macro - risks, the April low may be the long - term bottom, and the downside space is limited [7]. - Eggs: Due to reduced mid - autumn festival stocking demand and high supply, egg prices fell in early August. Spot prices rebounded this week, but high cold - storage egg inventory and slow chicken culling will suppress the rebound [10]. - Apples: New - season apple production may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and prices are stable. Attention should be paid to the final production after bag - removal [13]. - Pigs: The price is in a range - bound oscillation. There are policy expectations for a production inflection point next year and seasonal demand support, but mid - term supply pressure remains due to insufficient production capacity reduction. Pay attention to factors such as slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [13] Summary by Commodity Corn and Starch - **Price Data**: From September 4 - 10, for corn, the price in Jinzhou decreased by 10, and the basis increased by 7. For starch, the basis decreased by 78, and the processing profit decreased by 3 [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Corn auctions had a slight improvement in trading volume, but the impact was limited. New - season corn is about to be listed, and the market is cautious. Starch prices are expected to continue to decline, and enterprises will try to clear inventory [4]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From September 4 - 10, the spot price in Kunming increased by 15, the basis decreased by 17, and the import profit decreased by 24. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 205 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Brazil's peak crushing period is pressuring international sugar prices, and domestic prices are following the trend with imported sugar arriving [6]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From September 4 - 10, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 25, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 137. The 32S spinning profit increased by 27 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Cotton has entered a consolidation phase, and the downside space is limited without major macro - risks [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From September 4 - 10, the price in Shandong increased by 0.10, and the basis increased by 91. The price of white - feather broilers decreased by 0.10, and the price of pigs increased by 0.05 [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Reduced mid - autumn festival stocking demand and high supply led to price drops in early August. Spot prices rebounded this week, but high cold - storage egg inventory and slow chicken culling will suppress the rebound [10]. Apples - **Price Data**: From September 4 - 10, the national inventory decreased by 97, Shandong inventory decreased by 42, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 170 [13]. - **Market Analysis**: New - season apple production may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and prices are stable. Attention should be paid to the final production after bag - removal [13]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From September 4 - 10, the price in Hubei Xiangyang, Shandong Linyi, Anhui Hefei, and Jiangsu Nantong decreased by 0.10, and the basis decreased by 85 [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The price is in a range - bound oscillation. There are policy expectations for a production inflection point next year and seasonal demand support, but mid - term supply pressure remains due to insufficient production capacity reduction. Pay attention to factors such as slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [13]

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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The spot market is weak, with civil gas and ether - post carbon slightly declining. The lowest delivery location remains in East China. The domestic market rises, and the basis narrows. The supply increases, and the demand is still weak. The overall market is expected to fluctuate as the combustion off - season is approaching its end, but demand lacks substantial improvement [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information Spot Market - Civil gas and ether - post carbon prices decline slightly. East China's low - end price is 4507 (+1), Shandong's is 4520 (-10), and South China's changes little at 4590 (-10). Ether - post carbon 4810 (-20). The lowest delivery location is East China [1]. Futures Market - The PG main contract fluctuates. The cheapest delivery product is East China civil gas at 4501. The basis strengthens to 125 (+55), and the 10 - 11 month spread is 69 (-18). The warehouse receipt registration volume is 13008 lots (-199) [1]. Supply and Demand - Xintai Petrochemical resumes civil gas supply, increasing by 75 tons per day. Hebei Haiwei's PDH device restarts, and its load is rising. Ningbo Jinfa will stop work next week, while Hebei Haiwei and Wanhua Yantai will resume work [1]. International Market - FEI and CP rise slightly to 554 and 550 dollars per ton respectively. The arrival cost increases. The outer - market prices are differentiated, and the internal - external price difference decreases [1]. Industry Indicators - PDH profit declines, the profit of producing PP is poor, and the profit of producing propylene is good. Port inventory changes little, refinery commodity volume drops by 3.01%, and PDH operating rate is 73.10% (+0.08pct) [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the PTA market, near - term TA inventory continues to decline, but its structure and profitability are weakening. There may be no significant improvement in polyester performance and new PTA production capacity is expected. With the expectation of future inventory build - up, the willingness to hold goods is weak. However, the processing fee has reached a very low level, and as PX supply gradually recovers, there is an opportunity to expand the processing fee by buying at low prices [2]. - For MEG, near - term domestic oil - based production increases, coal - based production declines slightly, and overall load decreases. Overseas maintenance increases. The port inventory continues to decline at the beginning of the week and then rebounds. The downstream inventory level decreases, and the basis strengthens. Although the basis has strengthened significantly due to continuous inventory reduction in the near term, there is still an expectation of inventory build - up in the far term. The market is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of some devices [11]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up rate has increased, sales have weakened, and inventory has remained stable. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn has increased slightly, raw material inventory has rebounded, and finished - product inventory has continued to accumulate with weak profitability. In the future, the start - up rate is expected to remain high, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [11]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber remains stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [11]. Summary by Related Categories PTA - Price and Index Changes: The price of naphtha increased by 1.1, PX CFR Taiwan increased by 6, PTA internal - market spot price increased by 20, POY 150D/48F decreased by 80, PTA processing fee increased by 11, and polyester gross profit decreased by 92. The PTA balance load and PTA load remained unchanged, and the number of warehouse receipts + valid forecasts decreased by 2809. The basis remained unchanged, and sales increased by 0.5 [2]. - Device Changes: Dushan Energy's 2.5 - million - ton device restarted [2]. MEG - Price and Index Changes: The MEG internal - market price decreased by 15, the MEG far - month price decreased by 12, the MEG coal - based profit decreased by 15, and other indicators remained unchanged [11]. - Device Changes: Shaanxi Weihua's 300,000 - ton device restarted [11]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: The price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 30, the profit of pure polyester yarn decreased by 25, and the difference between cotton and polyester staple fiber decreased by 20 [11]. - Device Changes: No new device overhauls were reported, and the start - up rate increased to 93.9% [11]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - Price and Index Changes: The daily change of most prices was 0, with some exceptions such as the Shanghai 3L price remaining unchanged and the Thailand cup - lump rubber price remaining stable. The weekly change showed an increase in some prices, and the difference between some varieties also changed [11]. Styrene - Price and Index Changes: The price of styrene in Jiangsu increased by 15, the price of styrene in South China increased by 10, the EPS domestic profit decreased by 10, and the PS domestic profit decreased by 10 [14].

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 681.0 -2.0 -9.0 -13.0 -169.0 25省终端可用天数 21.8 0.6 1.9 0.9 4.2 秦皇岛5000 589.0 -3.0 -19.0 -41.0 -156.0 25省终端供煤 598.4 4.6 -10.1 -41.6 -24.4 广州港5500 755.0 0.0 -5.0 -5.0 -145.0 北方港库存 2020.0 4.0 -24.0 -90.0 -99.2 鄂尔多斯5500 465.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -155.0 北方锚地船舶 61.0 -2.0 -1.0 -11.0 -33.0 大同5500 520.0 0.0 0.0 -30.0 -190.0 北方港调入量 121.4 -7.6 -44.3 -24.2 -35.3 榆林6000 602.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -189.0 北方港吞吐量 134.6 -1.5 -16.0 -24.0 -25.0 榆林6200 630.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -188.0 CBCFI海运指数 573.0 -2.8 -35 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No information provided 3. Summary Based on Related Content 3.1 Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder was priced at 795, unchanged daily but up 24 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 850.9; PB powder was at 799, unchanged daily and up 24 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 848.1; Macfarlane powder was at 785, unchanged daily and up 25 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 857.4; Jinbuba powder was at 763, unchanged daily and up 23 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 857.0; mainstream mixed powder was at 745, up 1 daily and 33 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 875.4; super special powder was at 705, unchanged daily and up 29 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 922.2; Roy Hill powder was at 769, unchanged daily and up 24 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 846.5 [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed ore was at 820, down 4 daily and up 18 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 835.2; Brazilian coarse IOC6 was at 804, unchanged daily and up 24 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG was at 809, unchanged daily and up 24 weekly [1]. - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate was at 927, up 2 daily and 30 weekly; 61% Indian powder was at 752, unchanged daily and up 23 weekly; Karara concentrate was at 927, up 2 daily and 30 weekly; KUMBA powder was at 858, unchanged daily and up 24 weekly; 57% Indian powder was at 645, unchanged daily and up 24 weekly; Atlas powder was at 740, up 1 daily and 33 weekly; Tangshan iron concentrate was at 1004, up 3 daily and 18 weekly [1]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Dalian Commodity Exchange Contracts**: i2601 was at 805.0, unchanged daily and up 28 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 42.5; i2605 was at 781.0, unchanged daily and up 26.5 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 24.0; i2509 was at 847.5, down 2.5 daily and up 34.5 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of - 66.5 [1]. - **Singapore Exchange Contracts**: FE01 was at 103.70, up 1.69 daily and 3.73 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 3.05; FE05 was at 101.26, up 1.62 daily and 3.66 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 2.44; FE09 was at 106.75, up 1.50 daily and 3.41 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of - 5.49 [1]. 3.3 Premium and Other Information - **Premium**: Information on PB block/block ore premium, Ukrainian ball/ball pellet premium was presented in the form of charts, but specific data was not detailed in the text [1]. - **Import Profit**: Import profits of different iron ore varieties were provided, such as Newman powder's import profit was - 36.82, PB powder's was - 15.30, etc. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on asphalt futures and spot markets. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Prices - The prices of various BU contracts (BU主力合约, BU06, BU09, etc.) showed different degrees of change from August 12th to September 10th. For example, the BU主力合约 price was 3506 on August 12th and 3450 on September 10th, with a daily change of 30 and a weekly change of -101 [4]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume on September 10th was 222,817, with a daily increase of 41,170 and a weekly decrease of 127,075. The open interest was 436,057, with a daily decrease of 940 and a weekly decrease of 55,837 [4]. Delivery Quantity - The delivery quantity remained at 26,890 from September 8th to 10th, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 2,900 [4]. Spot Market Prices - The spot market prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast) also had changes. For instance, the Shandong market price increased by 10 to 3,540 on September 10th compared to September 9th, with no weekly change [4]. Basis and Calendar Spread - The basis and calendar spread of different contracts (03 - 06, 06 - 09, etc.) showed fluctuations. For example, the 06 - 09 basis had a daily increase of 63 and a weekly increase of 36 on September 10th [4]. Crack Spread and Profit - The asphalt Brent crack spread was 89 on September 10th, with a daily decrease of 9 and a weekly increase of 67. Different types of refinery profits (ordinary refinery, Ma Rui - type refinery) also had corresponding changes [4]. Import Profit - The import profit from South Korea to East China was -101 on September 10th, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 49. The import profit from Singapore to South China was -923, with a daily decrease of 9 and a weekly decrease of 4 [4]. Related Prices - The prices of related products such as Brent crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and residual oil in the Shandong market also had certain changes. For example, Brent crude oil was priced at 66.4 on September 10th, with a daily increase of 0.4 and a weekly decrease of 1.2 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for multiple non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on September 11, 2025, including domestic and LME prices, price ratios, equilibrium price ratios, and profit margins [1][3][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On September 11, 2025, the domestic spot price was 79,760, the LME spot price was 9,884, and the spot price ratio was 8.07. The equilibrium price ratio for spot import was 8.11, with a profit of - 232.79 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,100, the LME spot price was 2,896, and the spot price ratio was 7.63. The equilibrium price ratio for spot import was 8.57, with a profit of - 2,724.25 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,750, the LME spot price was 2,629, and the spot price ratio was 7.89. The equilibrium price ratio for spot import was 8.38, with a profit of - 1,287.79 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 119,450, the LME spot price was 14,992, and the spot price ratio was 7.97. The equilibrium price ratio for spot import was 8.18, with a profit of - 1,447.10 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,700, the LME spot price was 1,932, and the spot price ratio was 8.64. The equilibrium price ratio for spot import was 8.83, with a profit of - 368.54 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On September 11, 2025, the spreads between the secondary month, third month, fourth month, and fifth month and the spot month were 110, 80, 60, and 30 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 500, 899, 1306, and 1714 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 155, 150, 145, and 150 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 333, 452, and 571 [3] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 50, 40, 30, and - 5 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 330, 446, and 562 [3] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 75, - 50, - 35, and 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 315, 420, and 525 [3] - **Nickel**: The spreads between the secondary month, third month, fourth month, and fifth month and the spot month were 330, 470, 640, and 920 [3] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 580, and the theoretical spread was 5606 [3] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On September 11, 2025, the spreads between the current - month contract, secondary - month contract and the spot were - 25 and 85 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 129 and 586 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 40 and 115 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 103 and 232 [3] - **Lead**: The spreads were 170 and 95 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 116 and 227 [3] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On September 11, 2025, for cross - variety arbitrage, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.59, 3.84, 4.74, 0.94, 1.24, and 0.76 respectively; in London (three - continuous) were 3.47, 3.81, 5.04, 0.91, 1.32, and 0.69 respectively [6]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: September 11, 2025 [2] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Market Overview - On September 10, the closing price of the BR main contract was 11,720, up 30 from the previous day and down 165 from the previous week [3]. - The position volume of the main contract was 23,343, down 3,507 from the previous day and down 5,601 from the previous week [3]. - The trading volume of the main contract was 64,219, down 53,901 from the previous day and down 40,850 from the previous week [3]. Price and Basis - The warehouse receipt quantity was 13,670, up 30 from the previous day and up 1,130 from the previous week [3]. - The virtual - real ratio was 8.54, down 1 from the previous day and down 3 from the previous week [3]. - The Shun - Ding basis was 80, down 130 from the previous day [3]. Market Prices - The Shandong market price was 11,800, down 100 from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week [3]. - The Chuanhua market price was 11,700, down 50 from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week [3]. - The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,900, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 from the previous week [3]. Processing and Import - Export - The spot processing profit was - 141, down 120 from the previous day and down 49 from the previous week [3]. - The on - disk processing profit was - 221, up 10 from the previous day and down 114 from the previous week [3]. - The import profit was - 84,469, down 100 from the previous day and up 1,637 from the previous week [3]. - The export profit was - 125, up 87 from the previous day and up 181 from the previous week [3]. Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Market Prices - The Shandong market price was 9,550, up 20 from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week [3]. - The Jiangsu market price was 9,350, up 50 from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week [3]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,350, unchanged from the previous day and down 150 from the previous week [3]. Processing and Import - Export - The carbon - four extraction profit was not available on September 10 [3]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 186, up 50 from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week [3]. - The import profit was 388, up 50 from the previous day and down 38 from the previous week [3]. - The export profit was - 125, up 87 from the previous day and up 181 from the previous week [3]. Group 4: Downstream Profits - The ABS production profit data was not available on September 10 [3]. - The SBS (791 - H) production profit was 1,055, unchanged from the previous day and up 105 from the previous week [3]. Group 5: Price Spreads Variety - to - Variety Spreads - The RU - BR spread was - 7,363, up 3,547 from the previous day [3]. - The NR - BR spread was - 10,628, up 3,487 from the previous day and up 5,601 from the previous week [3]. - The Thai mixed - Shun - Ding spread was 3,200, up 100 from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week [3]. - The 3L - styrene - butadiene spread was 3,000, up 100 from the previous day and up 300 from the previous week [3]. Variety - Internal Spreads - The Shun - Ding standard - non - standard price spread was 220, down 30 from the previous day and down 30 from the previous week [3]. - The styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread was 920, down 50 from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week [3].

、隐含波动率指数、历史波动率及其价差走势图 1、金融期权隐含波动率指数反映截止上一交易日的30日隐波走势,商品期权隐含波动 率指数通过主力月平值期权上下两档隐波加权所得,反映主力合约的隐波变化趋势。2 隐波指数与历史波动率的差值,差值越大反映隐波相对历史波动率越高,差值越小代 表隐波相对历史波动率越低。 、隐波指教分位教与波动率价差分位数排名图 1 ↓ 隐波分位数代表当前品种隐波在历史上的水平 • 分位数高代表当前稳波偏高 • 分位数低代表稳波偏低 • 2 • 波动率价差书急疫指数•历史玻 动率。 波动率数据日报 永安期货期权总部 更新时间: 2025/9/10 BP 50ETF 0.78 70 - 300股指 IV -- 300股指 IV IV-HV美 IV-HV差 - 50ETF IV - 50ETF HV 20 #VALUE! -- 1000股指 IV -- 1000股指 HV - 500ETF IV - 500ETF HV #VALUE! ZID IO 20 0 10 白银 IV 白银 HV TUE! 户会 IV IV-HV美 HA HA TI 07566 707597 CRANZE 一豆粕 IV 空 ...