废钢早报 日期 华东 华北 中部 华南 东北 西南 2025/11/19 2200 2273 2032 2220 2230 2093 研究中心黑色团队 2025/11/26 2025/11/20 2199 2270 2032 2214 2230 2092 2025/11/21 2199 2268 2027 2213 2228 2091 2025/11/24 2183 2263 2016 2200 2225 2088 2025/11/25 2183 2263 2015 2206 2225 2088 环比 0 0 -1 6 0 0 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担 期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Iron Ore Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 792, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 0; PB powder price is 795, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 0; Macarthur powder price is 786, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of 0; Jinbuba powder price is 748, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 2; Super Special powder price is 679, with a daily change of 6 and a weekly change of 1; Carajás powder price is 889, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of -3 [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed powder price is 835, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 3; Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 772, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 0; Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 777, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 0 [1]. - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate price is 875, with a daily change of -4 and a weekly change of -12; 61% Indian powder price is 737, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 2; Karara concentrate price is 877, with a daily change of -4 and a weekly change of -12; Roy Hill powder price is 782, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 0; KUMBA powder price is 854, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 0; 57% Indian powder price is 614, with a daily change of 6 and a weekly change of 1; Atlas powder price is 725, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 2; Tangshan iron concentrate price is 1014, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -6 [1]. Iron Ore Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 contract price is 794.0, with a daily change of 3.5 and a weekly change of 2.0; i2605 contract price is 769.5, with a daily change of 6.0 and a weekly change of 12.0; i2609 contract price is 743.0, with a daily change of 6.5 and a weekly change of 9.0 [1]. - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 contract price is 101.83, with a daily change of 1.08 and a weekly change of 0.64; FE05 contract price is 99.44, with a daily change of 1.03 and a weekly change of 0.71; FE09 contract price is 97.36, with a daily change of 0.94 and a weekly change of 0.76 [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - For PTA, with some near - end TA devices under maintenance,开工 decreasing, polyester load rising, inventory decreasing, basis strengthening slightly, and spot processing fees improving. PX domestic operation rate increases while some overseas devices reduce load. TA is expected to maintain high maintenance, downstream shows no obvious pressure, and with India's revocation of BIS certification, TA inventory accumulation slope is not high. There are opportunities for positive spread at low prices and expanding processing fees [2]. - For MEG, near - end domestic oil - based production increases load, coal - based production has some maintenance and load reduction, overall operation rate drops, overseas device restart is postponed, port inventory accumulates. In the future, inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down, and there are short - term opportunities for selling put options, but the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, near - end device operation is stable, production and sales improve slightly, inventory is basically flat. In the future, demand remains stable, short - term inventory pressure is limited, but the pattern may weaken in the long - term, and attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable and at a relatively low level, Thai cup - lump rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Data Changes**: From 2025/11/19 to 2025/11/25, crude oil decreased by 0.9, PTA spot price remained unchanged, polyester price decreased by 45, PTA processing fee increased by 12, and inventory increased by 3606. The basis increased by 5, and production and sales increased by 0.95 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Honggang's 2.5 million - ton device restarted [2]. - **Outlook**: TA maintains high maintenance, downstream has no obvious pressure, and there are opportunities for positive spread at low prices and expanding processing fees [2]. MEG - **Data Changes**: From 2025/11/19 to 2025/11/25, MEG outer - market price increased by 4, inner - market price increased by 30, coal - based profit increased by 30, and overall load remained unchanged [2]. - **Device Changes**: Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton device and Huayi's 200,000 - ton device were under maintenance, and Zhenhai's 800,000 - ton device restarted [2]. - **Outlook**: Inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down, short - term put - selling opportunities exist, and the long - term pattern is weak [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Data Changes**: On 2025/11/25 compared with the previous day, the price of 1.4D cotton - type increased by 35, short - fiber profit increased by 25, and pure - polyester yarn profit decreased by 35 [2]. - **Device Changes**: No device maintenance information [2]. - **Outlook**: Short - term inventory pressure is limited, but the long - term pattern may weaken, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipts [2]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - **Data Changes**: From 2025/11/19 to 2025/11/25, RU main contract decreased by 195, NR main contract decreased by 125. Weekly, RU main contract decreased by 170, NR main contract decreased by 195 [5]. - **Key Factors**: National explicit inventory is stable and at a low level, Thai cup - lump rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects tapping [5]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [5]. Styrene - **Data Changes**: From 2025/11/19 to 2025/11/25, styrene (CFR China) remained unchanged, styrene (Jiangsu) increased by 10, and styrene domestic profit increased by 5 [8]. - **Outlook**: No outlook information provided [8].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2) Core View The report presents overnight market information on the export sales and shipments of US soybeans and soybean meal, the expected export volumes of Brazilian soybeans and soybean meal, and the export data of Malaysian palm oil, along with the spot prices of related products [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - For the week ending October 9, US soybean export sales totaled a net increase of 78.64 million tons as expected. Current - market - year sales net increased 78.5 million tons, down 15% from the previous week and 9% from the four - week average, with next - market - year sales net increasing 0.14 million tons. Export shipments were 69.28 million tons, down 4% from the previous week but up 3% from the four - week average. New sales for the current market year were 84.78 million tons, and 0.14 million tons for the next market year [1]. - For the week ending October 9, US soybean meal export sales totaled a net increase of 35.55 million tons as expected. Current - market - year sales net increased 35.84 million tons, up 6% from the previous week and 517% from the four - week average, while next - market - year sales had a net decrease of 0.29 million tons. Export shipments were 20.42 million tons, down 36% from the previous week and 24% from the four - week average. New sales for the current market year were 37.50 million tons, and 0 for the next market year [1]. - ANEC estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in November would be 4.4 billion tons (down from last week's forecast of 4.71 billion tons), and soybean meal exports would be 2.5 billion tons (down from last week's forecast of 2.68 billion tons) [1]. - ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil product exports from November 1 - 25 decreased 18.8% compared to the same period last month, with exports of 1,041,935 tons. AmSpec Agri data showed a 16.4% decrease, with exports of 987,978 tons compared to the same period in October [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of various products (including soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu) from November 19 - 25, 2025 were presented in a table [2].

、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担任何责任。 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 828.0 -2.0 -2.0 62.0 -2.0 25省终端可用天数 26.0 0.5 6.1 5.1 8.4 秦皇岛5000 731.0 -4.0 -6.0 55.0 -9.0 25省终端供煤 541.4 0.6 -67.1 -98.6 -81.4 广州港5500 865.0 0.0 0.0 60.0 -35.0 北方港库存 2502.0 28.0 33.0 294.0 -156.5 鄂尔多斯5500 595.0 0.0 15.0 35.0 -35.0 北方锚地船舶 101.0 6.0 -23.0 -4.0 34.0 大同5500 645.0 0.0 15.0 35.0 -65.0 北方港调入量 180.0 -6.7 -0.8 7.5 17.5 榆林6000 732.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 -105.0 北方港吞吐量 184.8 1.0 61.0 -5.7 3.1 榆林6200 760.0 0.0 0.0 50 ...

Report Date - The report was released on November 26, 2025 [1] Corn/Starch Price Data - Corn prices in Changchun remained stable at 2070, while prices in Jinzhou increased by 20 to 2220, and prices in Shekou rose by 30 to 2410 from November 19 to 25, 2025. Starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained unchanged at 2700 and 2850 respectively, with the basis dropping by 21 to 149 [2] Market Analysis - **Short - term**: Corn prices are expected to remain strong due to low supply and downstream enterprises' restocking demand. Starch prices are pressured by high inventory as downstream replenishment is slow [2][3] - **Long - term**: The corn market will remain tight, and prices are supported by planting costs. Starch prices depend on downstream consumption rhythm, and a significant price drop may stimulate downstream replenishment [2][3] Sugar Price Data - From November 19 to 25, 2025, the spot price in Nanning increased by 30 to 5480, the basis decreased by 17 to 228, and the import profit from Thailand and Brazil decreased by 13 each. The number of warehouse receipts remained at 7876 [6] Market Analysis - **Short - term**: Zhengzhou sugar prices are more affected by import quota management and syrup premix import control than the international market, and domestic sugar production cost is the key support [6] - **Long - term**: If the global sugar market surplus intensifies, domestic sugar prices may be impacted. Overall, the global and domestic sugar supply is loose, but short - term downward space is limited [6] Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From November 19 to 25, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 45 to 14475, the import profit increased, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 265 to 3799. The price of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 5 to 20935, and the import profit increased by 14 to 515 [9] Market Analysis - New cotton acquisition is almost complete, and the total output is estimated to be lower. The positive outcome of the China - US meeting in Busan is beneficial for textile exports, making long - term long positions suitable [9] Eggs Price Data - From November 19 to 25, 2025, egg prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan increased, with the largest increase of 0.10 in Henan. The basis increased by 74 to 354 [12] Market Analysis - Supply pressure is relieved by orderly chicken culling and a decrease in new laying hens. Demand increases as cooler weather allows for longer egg storage. The price center in the production area moves up slightly, and future price trends depend on the chicken culling rhythm [12] Apples Price Data - From November 19 to 25, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8000. The national inventory decreased by 112, Shandong inventory decreased by 145, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 49 [14][15] Market Analysis - National apple storage is almost complete, with an estimated storage volume of about 5.5%, 10% lower than last year. The average opening price is above 3.5 yuan per catty, and prices are expected to remain high in the short term [15] Pigs Price Data - From November 19 to 25, 2025, pig prices in all monitored regions decreased, with the largest decrease of 0.20 in Anhui. The basis decreased by 115 to 15 [16] Market Analysis - **Short - term**: Weekend spot prices fluctuated slightly, with moderate slaughter and limited terminal demand improvement. Some local curing in the south has started [17] - **Long - term**: There are expectations of increased supply and demand before the Spring Festival, but supply and inventory pressure is still large. The improvement of far - month expectations depends on near - term production and inventory reduction [17]

| | | 大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/11/26 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 3.997 | 4.493 | 3.406 | 2.671 | 3.399 | 3.161 | 0.131 | 3.273 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 1.799 | 6.146 | 1.818 | - | 4.428 | 4.145 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.460 | 3.755 | 2.013 | 0.964 | 2.184 | 1.404 | - ...

免责声明: LPG早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/26 L P G 日期 华南液化气 华东液化气 山东液化气 丙烷CFR华 南 丙烷CIF日本 CP预测合 同价 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基 化油 纸面进口利润 主力基差 2025/11/19 4345 4325 4370 565 508 491 4590 7040 -280 -49 2025/11/20 4350 4325 4360 562 509 486 4570 7040 -253 -47 2025/11/21 4400 4315 4340 558 502 485 4530 7040 -165 68 2025/11/24 4405 4305 4400 560 498 489 4440 7080 -174 200 2025/11/25 4330 4310 4430 - 484 - 4470 7100 - 100 日度变化 -75 5 30 - -14 - 30 20 - -100 日度变化 周二，民用气方面，华东4310（-5），山东4430（+30），华南4330（-75）。醚后碳四4470（+70）。最低交割地为华东，基差-2 6（-53），01-0 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, copper prices first rose and then declined slightly. Downstream consumption remained weak, and the negotiation of long - term contracts between copper downstream enterprises was ongoing. The price of 85,000 yuan might become the psychological price for downstream point - pricing. [1] - Aluminum prices decreased slightly. The inventory of aluminum ingots remained flat, and the inventory of aluminum rods and strips decreased slightly. The short - term trend might be volatile, and the supply - demand situation was expected to be loose in early 2026 and then tighten gradually. [2] - Zinc prices fluctuated. The supply of domestic and imported TC was accelerating downward. The demand was seasonally weak. The export window was open, and there was some inventory delivery overseas. The price center might be difficult to decline deeply, and it was recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities, and the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 contracts for the month - spread. [5] - The short - term fundamental situation of nickel was weak. The supply decreased slightly, the demand was weak, and the inventory continued to increase. There were continuous disruptions in the Indonesian mining end, and it was recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies. [7][8] - The fundamental situation of stainless steel remained weak. The production increased slightly in October, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, the cost remained stable, and the inventory was at a high level. It was recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies. [12] - Lead prices fell. The supply was loose, and the demand was expected to weaken. The supply - demand contradiction was alleviated, and the social inventory began to accumulate. It was expected that lead prices would fluctuate narrowly next week, and it was recommended to operate carefully. [15][16] - Tin prices increased. The supply side was marginally repaired, and there were uncertainties overseas. The demand was mainly rigid. In the short - term, it was recommended to wait and see, and in the long - term, it was recommended to hold near the cost line or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals. [19] - The supply - demand of industrial silicon in Q4 was expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state, and the price was expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price was expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle. [22] - The price of lithium carbonate first rose and then fell. The supply side had high price elasticity after disturbances were resolved, and the long - term pattern might change in the next 1 - 2 years if the demand was stable. [24] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 18 to 24, the spot price of Shanghai copper was between 80 - 100, with a change of - 10; the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 119; the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 5,974. [1] - **Market Situation**: Downstream consumption was weak, and the negotiation of long - term contracts was ongoing. The concentrated delivery of LME copper affected the Cash - 3M spread, and the waste copper subsidy policy was slightly relaxed. [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 18 to 24, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 20; the domestic alumina price decreased by 1; the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged. [1] - **Market Situation**: The price of aluminum decreased slightly, the inventory of aluminum ingots was flat, and the short - term trend was volatile. The supply - demand situation was expected to change from loose to tight in 2026. [1][2] Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 18 to 24, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 60; the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 100. [5] - **Market Situation**: The supply of domestic and imported TC was accelerating downward. The demand was seasonally weak, and the export window was open. [5] Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 18 to 24, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1,250; the domestic and overseas inventories continued to increase. [6][7] - **Market Situation**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand was weak, and there were continuous disruptions in the Indonesian mining end. [7][8] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 18 to 24, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel also remained stable. [12] - **Market Situation**: The production increased slightly in October, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, the cost remained stable, and the inventory was at a high level. [12] Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 18 to 24, the lead price decreased; the social inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory increased by 2,425. [15][16] - **Market Situation**: The supply was loose, the demand was expected to weaken, and the supply - demand contradiction was alleviated. [15][16] Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 18 to 24, the tin price center increased; the LME inventory remained unchanged. [19] - **Market Situation**: The supply side was marginally repaired, and there were uncertainties overseas. The demand was mainly rigid. [19] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 18 to 24, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan changed slightly, and the basis of 553 in East China and Tianjin decreased; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 854. [22] - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand in Q4 was expected to be balanced and slightly loose, and the price was expected to fluctuate. [22] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 18 to 24, the SMM electric carbon and industrial carbon prices decreased by 150; the basis of the main and near - month contracts increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 338. [24] - **Market Situation**: The price first rose and then fell. The supply side had high price elasticity after disturbances were resolved, and the long - term pattern might change in the next 1 - 2 years. [24]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - This week, oil prices closed lower. Significant progress has been made in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations. Zelensky and Trump will discuss a peace plan next week, with Russia being open to the idea, but no substantial discussions have taken place between Russia and the US yet. The risk premium for gasoline and diesel cracking in Europe and the US has rapidly reversed, and the crude oil monthly spread has declined, with a weekly rebound. Global onshore inventories have increased this week, while the total onshore and offshore inventories have slightly decreased, reaching the highest level since 2020. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories have decreased, while gasoline and diesel inventories have increased. The number of US oil rigs and fracturing operations has risen, and the refinery operating rates in Europe and the US have increased. Recently, there is still room for downward adjustment in US gasoline and European diesel prices. With a supply-demand surplus, a short-selling strategy for crude oil is maintained, with a forecasted Brent price range of $55 - $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Short-term attention should be paid to the US's draft plan for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. [6][9] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Price Data Summary - From November 18 - 24, 2025, WTI crude oil prices fluctuated from $60.74 to $58.84, with a change of $0.78; Brent crude oil prices dropped from $64.89 to $62.22, a decrease of $0.34; Dubai crude oil prices rose from $65.20 to $64.50, with a change of $0.11. Other related oil product prices also showed corresponding fluctuations. [3] 3.2 Daily News - The Tuapse refinery in Russia resumed oil processing on November 21. - After the US imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, Russian Urals crude oil is being sold to Indian refiners at the lowest price in at least two years, at a discount of $7 per barrel to the Brent crude oil spot price (CIF). Some Indian refiners have changed their stance due to the lower prices and are considering purchasing from non-sanctioned sellers. - The US is preparing to launch a new round of actions related to Venezuela in the coming days. - JPMorgan Chase believes that due to oversupply, Brent crude oil prices could fall to the $30 - $40 per barrel range in 2027. [3][4] 3.3 Inventory Data - According to the EIA report, in the week of November 14, US crude oil exports increased by 1.342 million barrels per day to 4.158 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.028 million barrels to 13.834 million barrels per day. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.426 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.8%. - The four - week average supply of US petroleum products was 20.641 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.2% compared to the same period last year. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 0.533 million barrels to 410.9 million barrels, an increase of 0.13%. - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 5.95 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.728 million barrels per day compared to the previous week. - From November 14 - 20, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline inventories were 10.2331 million tons, a decrease of 1.75%, and diesel inventories were 12.2708 million tons, a decrease of 4.25%. The inventories of major refiners and social entities decreased, while those of local refineries increased. The comprehensive refining profit of major refiners rebounded, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries fluctuated. [4][5][16]