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原油成品油早报-20250822
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 09:17
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated. The inflection point in fundamentals has emerged, and the market is focusing on the ceasefire negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the US's measures to impose additional tariffs on India. After the "Trump-Putin meeting", Trump said he would not consider imposing additional tariffs on China for purchasing Russian oil for the time being, and the risk rating of sanctions policies has decreased. Attention is now on whether India will resume spot market purchases of Russian oil next week. Fundamentally, global oil inventories are accumulating, with a 303-million-barrel increase in US commercial crude oil inventories. Brazil and Guyana have reached record-high crude oil export volumes. The peak seasons for gasoline and jet fuel demand have passed. This year's CDU autumn maintenance is scheduled later than usual, and the planned maintenance volume is lower than in previous years, which supports crude oil feedstock demand. In the short term, the absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain volatile, with attention on Russian crude oil supply. In the second half of the year, crude oil is expected to weaken under a supply-demand surplus scenario [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Oil Price Data - From August 15 - 21, 2025, WTI crude oil prices increased by $0.81, BRENT by $0.83, and DUBAI by $0.28. NYMEX RB rose by 3.14, and HO increased by 4.55. SC increased by 8.10, and OMAN by 0.59. Singapore fuel oil 380CST's discount improved by 1.5, and HH natural gas increased by 1.02 [2]. b. Daily News - On August 22, the US Treasury sanctioned a Greek shipping company accused of assisting in transporting Iranian oil, expanding the Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign against Tehran. On August 21, the UK sanctioned an Iranian business tycoon Hossein Shamkhani and several key enterprises in his network, including a hedge fund. Ukrainian President Zelensky said he hopes to clarify the security guarantee framework within 7 - 10 days and hold bilateral and trilateral leader meetings later [2][3]. c. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending August 15, US crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels (a 1.41% decrease), strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels (a 0.06% increase), and imports decreased by 423,000 barrels per day to 6.497 million barrels per day. US gasoline inventories decreased by 2.72 million barrels (expected -0.915 million barrels, previous -0.792 million barrels), and refined oil inventories increased by 2.343 million barrels (expected 0.928 million barrels, previous 0.714 million barrels). From August 8 - 14, the operating rates of major refineries and Shandong local refineries in China slightly increased. Refinery production of gasoline and diesel increased, while inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries declined, and that of local refineries increased [5].
永安期货集运早报-20250822
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 08:26
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall logic of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. This is mainly because the market pattern in September is loose, and the subsequent driving forces are weak. The current October contract is at a discount of about 450 points to the spot price, and there is still expected room for decline. The valuation of far - month contracts is unclear, more affected by driving forces, and due to low open interest, they are greatly influenced by macro and capital behaviors [2][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Information - **EC2508**: Yesterday's trading volume was 156, and the change in open interest was - 109 [2][16]. - **EC2510**: The closing price was 2125.0, down 2.21%. The base was 55.2 - 855.2, the trading volume was 35008, the open interest was 54293, and the change in open interest was 2566 [2][16]. - **EC2512**: The closing price was 1721.4, down 3.07%. The base was 458.8, the trading volume was 7519, and the open interest was 12209 [2][16]. - **EC2602**: The closing price was 1513.0, down 1.24%. The base was 667.2, the trading volume was 1211, the open interest was 4403, and the change in open interest was 35 [2][16]. - **EC2604**: The closing price was 1289.5, down 1.89%. The base was 890.7, the trading volume was 1160, the open interest was 5716, and the change in open interest was 89 [2][16]. - **EC2606**: The closing price was 1470.1, down 0.67%. The base was 710.1, the open interest was 820, and the change in open interest was - 6 [2][16]. 3.2 Month - to - Month Spread Information - **EC2508 - 2510**: The spread was 800.0, with a day - on - day increase of 32.0 and a comparison increase of 89.8 [2][16]. - **EC2510 - 2512**: The spread was - 396.4, with a day - on - day increase of 24.5 and a comparison decrease of 7.0 [2][16]. - **EC2512 - 2602**: The spread was 208.4, with a day - on - day decrease of 35.5 and a comparison decrease of 24.5 [2][16]. 3.3 Index Information - **SCF (European Line)**: Updated on August 18, 2025, the index was 2180.17 (1820 in a certain unit), down 2.47% compared to the previous period and 2.71% compared to the period before the previous one [2][16]. - **CCFI (European Line)**: Updated on August 15, 2025, the index was 1790.47, down 0.48% compared to the previous period and up 0.53% compared to the period before the previous one [2][16]. - **NCFI (European Line)**: Updated on August 15, 2025, the index was 1188.69, down 5.49% compared to the previous period and down 8.57% compared to the period before the previous one [2][16]. 3.4 Booking and Shipping Capacity Information - **Week34**: The final landing average price was 2850 US dollars (2000 points). In Week 33, the cargo collection of MSK was good, OA was average, and PA was poor. In Week 34, cargo collection declined significantly, and some shipping companies faced pressure in accepting cargo [2][16]. - **Week35**: The current average quoted price is 2625 US dollars (1840 points after conversion). The average price in the spot market is 2575 US dollars (1770 points after conversion). The PA alliance quoted 2500 US dollars, MSK opened at 2300 US dollars (later raised to 2490 US dollars), and the OA alliance quoted 2700 - 2800 US dollars [2][3][16][17]. - **Week36**: The latest quoted prices of shipping companies range from 2120 to 2420 US dollars, with an average of 2250 US dollars (1550 points). MSK opened at 2100 US dollars, and some routes increased to 2200 US dollars; CMA's quote dropped from 3420 to 2620 US dollars [3][17]. - **Shipping Capacity**: The weekly average shipping capacities in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 are 328,000, 312,000, and 315,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as cancellations, they are 38,000, 297,000, and 283,000 TEU respectively [2][16].
永安期货钢材早报-20250822
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 08:14
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - No relevant information provided Summary by Directory Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products from August 15 to August 21, 2025 including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Wuhan's rebar, as well as Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong's hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils. For rebar, Shanghai's price increased by 50, while others remained unchanged. For hot - rolled coils, Tianjin and Lecong's prices decreased by 10, and Shanghai's remained the same. Cold - rolled coil prices were mostly unchanged [1] Production and Inventory - No relevant information provided Basis and Spread - No relevant information provided
集运早报-20250822
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 07:46
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall strategy maintains the logic of shorting on rallies because the overall situation in September is loose, the subsequent driving force continues to be weak, the current October contract is at a discount of about 450 points to the spot, and there is still room for decline; the valuation of the far - month contract is vague, more affected by the driving force, and due to the small open interest, it is greatly affected by macro and capital behavior [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Content Futures Contract Information - For EC2508, the closing price was 2125.0, with a change of 0.09%, the basis was 55.2, the trading volume was 156, the open interest was 2060, and the change in open interest was - 109 [2] - For EC2510, the closing price was 1325.0, with a change of - 2.21%, the basis was 855.2, the trading volume was 35008, the open interest was 54293, and the change in open interest was 2566 [2] - For EC2512, the closing price was 1721.4, with a change of - 3.07%, the basis was 458.8, the trading volume was 7519, and the open interest was 12209 [2] - For EC2602, the closing price was 1513.0, with a change of - 1.24%, the basis was 667.2, the trading volume was 1211, the open interest was 4403, and the change in open interest was 35 [2] - For EC2604, the closing price was 1289.5, with a change of - 1.89%, the basis was 890.7, the trading volume was 1160, the open interest was 5716, and the change in open interest was 89 [2] - For EC2606, the closing price was 1470.1, with a change of - 0.67%, the basis was 710.1, the trading volume was 95, the open interest was 820, and the change in open interest was - 6 [2] Month - spread Information - The EC2508 - 2510 month - spread was 800.0, compared with 768.0 the previous day, 757.0 two days ago, and the week - on - week change was 89.8 [2] - The EC2510 - 2512 month - spread was - 396.4, compared with - 420.9 the previous day, - 404.7 two days ago, and the week - on - week change was - 7.0 [2] - The EC2512 - 2602 month - spread was 208.4, compared with 243.9 the previous day, 239.6 two days ago, and the week - on - week change was - 24.5 [2] Spot Index Information - The SCEIS index on August 18, 2025, was 2180.17 points, down 2.47% from the previous period and 2.71% from two periods ago [2] - The SCFI (European Line) on August 15, 2025, was 1820 dollars/TEU, down 7.19% from the previous period and 4.39% from two periods ago [2] - The CCFI on August 15, 2025, was 1790.47 points, down 0.48% from the previous period and up 0.53% from two periods ago [2] - The NCFI on August 15, 2025, was 1188.69 points, down 5.49% from the previous period and 8.37% from two periods ago [2] Booking and Capacity Information - Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for the end of August and early September (week35 - 36). In week35, the average price was 2575 dollars (equivalent to 1770 points on the futures market). The PA Alliance offered 2500 dollars, MSK initially opened at 2300 dollars and then rose to 2490 dollars, and the OA Alliance offered 2700 - 2800 dollars [2][3] - The weekly average capacities in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 were 328,000, 312,000, and 315,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as sailings cancelled, they were 328,000, 297,000, and 283,000 TEU respectively [2] Other Information - In week36, the latest quotes from shipping companies were between 2120 - 2420 dollars, with an average of 2250 dollars (1550 points). On Tuesday, MSK opened at 2100 dollars, and some routes rose to 2200 dollars; CMA's quote dropped from 3420 to 2620 dollars. On Wednesday, OOCL opened at 2300 dollars. On Thursday, CMA dropped 200 to 2420 dollars, HMM dropped 300 to 2200 dollars, and HPI dropped 200 to 2235 dollars [9]
废钢早报-20250822
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 07:40
Group 1: Price and Consumption Data - The prices of scrap steel in different regions from August 15th to August 21st, 2025 are presented. For example, in the East China region, the price decreased from 2255 to 2241, with a环比 of -1 [1]. - The prices of Shagang Heavy III (tax - included) and Zhenjiang Hongtai Sheared Scrap (tax - excluded) from 2022 to 2025 are shown, with fluctuations in different months [1]. - The daily consumption of long - process and short - process steel production from 2022 to 2025 is presented [1]. Group 2: Arrival and Inventory Data - The arrival of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang from 2022 to 2025 is shown [2]. - The arrival of scrap steel at 147 steel mills from 2022 to 2025 is presented [4]. - The scrap steel inventory of steel mills and the social inventory of scrap steel from 2019 to 2025 are shown, with monthly fluctuations [5][6]. Group 3: Profit - related Data - The screw - scrap price difference in East China and the profit of Jiangsu electric - furnace thread from 2022 to 2025 are presented, showing fluctuations in different months [6].
波动率数据日报-20250822
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 06:43
Group 1: Implied Volatility Index and Its Calculation - The implied volatility index of financial options reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day. The implied volatility index of commodity options is obtained by weighting the IV of the two strike - prices above and below the at - the - money option of the front - month contract, reflecting the IV change trend of the front - month contract [2] - The difference between the IV index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means higher IV relative to HV, and a smaller difference means lower IV relative to HV [2] Group 2: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Difference Graph - The document presents graphs showing the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences for various financial and commodity options, including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, and many commodity options such as soybeans, corn, sugar, cotton, etc [3] Group 3: Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current level of a variety's IV in history. A high quantile means the current IV is high, and a low quantile means the current IV is low. The volatility spread is calculated as the IV index minus the historical volatility [4] - The implied volatility quantile rankings are provided for different options, such as 50ETF with a quantile of 0.79, 300 - stock index with 0.80, iron ore with 0.37, PVC with 0.46, etc [5][7]
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250822
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: Port inventory has significantly accumulated, with high imports and high actual inventory. The expected return of inland supply is anticipated. With the upcoming peak season for traditional demand, attention should be given to whether demand can support the market after the return of inland supply. If inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol may experience a valuation decline [2]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream, the two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, while coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. The import profit is around - 100 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. In August, maintenance has decreased month - on - month, and domestic linear production has increased. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion situation, US quotes, and the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [7]. - **Polypropylene**: Upstream, the two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, while the middle - stream is reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been consistently good this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral. The PDH profit is around - 200, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production is stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. Supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are currently average, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **PVC**: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest plants are undergoing seasonal maintenance in summer, with the load center between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and export sustainability in Q4. Near - term export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [7]. 3. Data Summaries Methanol | Date |动力煤期货|江苏现货|华南现货|鲁南折盘面|西南折盘面|河北折盘面|西北折盘面|CFR中国|CFR东南亚|进口利润|主力基差|盘面MTO利润| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/15 | 801 | 2325 | 2325 | 2550 | 2560 | 2560 | 2695 | 264 | 324 | 34 | - 8 | - 1237 | | 2025/08/18 | 801 | 2307 | 2303 | 2515 | 2535 | 2560 | 2670 | 263 | 324 | 24 | - 5 | - 1237 | | 2025/08/19 | 801 | 2280 | 2280 | 2515 | 2500 | 2560 | 2670 | 263 | 322 | 13 | 0 | - 1237 | | 2025/08/20 | 801 | 2305 | 2290 | 2510 | 2500 | 2500 | 2670 | 266 | 322 | 6 | - 5 | - 1237 | | 2025/08/21 | 801 | 2305 | 2305 | 2510 | 2500 | 2500 | 2670 | 266 | 322 | 6 | - 5 | - 1237 | |日度变化|0|0|15|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|[2] Polyethylene | Date |东北亚乙烯|华北LL|华东LL|华东LD|华东HD|LL美金|LL美湾|进口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/15 | 825 | 7220 | 7335 | 9525 | 7650 | 850 | 906 | - 134 | 7351 | - 80 | 77 | 7345 | | 2025/08/18 | 825 | 7200 | 7300 | 9525 | 7600 | 850 | 906 | - 170 | 7334 | - 120 | 77 | 7345 | | 2025/08/19 | 825 | 7180 | 7300 | 9525 | 7600 | 850 | 906 | - 167 | 7307 | - 120 | 77 | 7724 | | 2025/08/20 | 830 | 7200 | 7300 | 9500 | 7570 | 845 | 851 | - 117 | 7347 | - 110 | 77 | 7684 | | 2025/08/21 | 830 | 7230 | 7325 | 9500 | 7570 | 845 | 851 | - 117 | 7386 | - 160 | 77 | 7684 | |日度变化|0|30|25|0|0|0|0|0|39|- 50|0|0|[7] Polypropylene | Date |山东丙烯|东北亚丙烯|华东PP|华北PP|山东粉料|华东共聚|PP美金|PP美湾|出口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/15 | 6400 | 745 | 7035 | 7058 | 6900 | 7234 | 860 | 970 | - 19 | 7084 | - 50 | 77 | 12860 | | 2025/08/18 | 6400 | 745 | 7005 | 7035 | 6870 | 7234 | 860 | 970 | - 16 | 7048 | - 60 | 77 | 12860 | | 2025/08/19 | 6400 | 745 | 6970 | 7015 | 6870 | 7230 | 865 | 970 | - 14 | 7016 | - 50 | 77 | 14040 | | 2025/08/20 | 6380 | 750 | 6930 | 7000 | 6860 | 7202 | 865 | 980 | - 18 | 7056 | - 50 | 77 | 13940 | | 2025/08/21 | 6450 | 750 | 6950 | 6998 | 6870 | 7202 | 865 | 980 | - 18 | 7048 | - 90 | 77 | 13940 | |日度变化|70|0|20|- 2|10|0|0|0|0|- 8|- 40|0|0|[7] PVC | Date |西北电石|山东烧碱|电石法 - 华东|乙烯法 - 华东|电石法 - 华南|电石法 - 西北|进口美金价(CFR中国)|出口利润|西北综合利润|华北综合利润|基差(高端交割品)| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/15 | 2250 | 852 | 4880 | 5500 | 5450 | 4550 | 700 | 468 | 356 | - 244 | - 70 | | 2025/08/18 | 2200 | 872 | 4860 | 5500 | 5450 | 4530 | 700 | 492 | 356 | - 244 | - 170 | | 2025/08/19 | 2200 | 872 | 4820 | 5500 | 5450 | 4530 | 700 | 494 | 356 | - 244 | - 170 | | 2025/08/20 | 2200 | 872 | 4800 | 5500 | 5450 | 4530 | 725 | 494 | 356 | - 244 | - 170 | | 2025/08/21 | 2200 | 867 | 4850 | 5500 | 5450 | 4500 | 725 | 494 | 356 | - 244 | - 180 | |日度变化|0|- 5|50|0|0|- 30|0|0|0|0|- 10|[7]
永安期货有色早报-20250822
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:47
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the macro sentiment continued to show a rise in risk appetite. Although domestic economic and financial data were poor, the stock market sentiment remained high. In August, there may be a small accumulation of inventory under the full - supply pattern, but the market may focus more on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1] - Aluminum supply increased slightly, and the demand in August was expected to be in the seasonal off - season, with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. An inventory increase was expected in August. Attention should be paid to the demand situation and potential arbitrage opportunities [5] - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply increased, while domestic demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience, and overseas demand was average. The strategy was to wait and see in the short term, hold a short position in the long - term, and consider positive arbitrage opportunities [8] - Nickel supply remained at a high level, demand was weak, and inventories were stable. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio could be continued to be observed [9] - The fundamentals of stainless steel remained weak. Supply was partially reduced, demand was mainly for rigid needs, costs were stable, and inventories decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to future policy trends [12] - Lead prices fluctuated this week. Supply was affected by various factors, demand was lackluster, and it was expected that lead prices would remain in a low - level oscillation next week [13] - Tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply was affected by domestic production cuts and overseas复产 signals, demand was weak, and the short - term supply - demand situation was weak. Short - term short - selling and long - term long - holding strategies were recommended [15] - Industrial silicon production in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan showed different trends. The current balance was in a state of slight inventory reduction, and the long - term outlook was for bottom - level oscillation [16] - Lithium carbonate prices were strong this week. The core contradiction was the long - term over - capacity and short - term resource - end disturbances. The price had a large upward elasticity and strong downward support in the short term [18] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - From August 15th to 21st, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 40, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 40, and other indicators showed corresponding changes. The downstream orders had support around 7 - 8, and the spot market trading was okay. The potential impact of the decline in recycled rod production on refined copper consumption should be noted [1] Aluminum - From August 15th to 21st, Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingot prices increased, while the domestic and imported alumina prices remained unchanged. The supply increased slightly, demand was in the off - season, and an inventory increase was expected in August [5] Zinc - From August 15th to 21st, the spot premium of zinc increased by 10, and zinc prices in different regions showed an upward trend. Supply increased, domestic demand was seasonally weak, and overseas demand was average. Short - term observation and long - term short - position strategies were recommended [8] Nickel - From August 15th to 21st, the price of 1.5 - grade Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 100. Supply remained high, demand was weak, and inventories were stable [9] Stainless Steel - From August 15th to 21st, the price of 201 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 50, and other prices remained unchanged. Supply was partially reduced, demand was mainly for rigid needs, and inventories decreased slightly [12] Lead - From August 15th to 21st, the lead spot premium decreased by 5, and other indicators changed accordingly. Supply was affected by various factors, demand was lackluster, and lead prices were expected to remain low - level oscillating [13] Tin - From August 15th to 21st, the tin spot import and export earnings, positions, and other indicators changed. Supply was affected by domestic production cuts and overseas复产 signals, demand was weak, and short - term short - selling and long - term long - holding strategies were recommended [15] Industrial Silicon - From August 15th to 21st, the basis of different grades of industrial silicon changed, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 553. The current balance was in a state of slight inventory reduction, and the long - term outlook was for bottom - level oscillation [16] Lithium Carbonate - From August 15th to 21st, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices decreased by 500, and the basis and other indicators changed. The price was strong this week, with large upward elasticity and strong downward support in the short term [16][18]
永安期货纸浆早报-20250822
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:47
Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Pulp Morning Report [2] - Report date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: SP Main Contract Information - Closing price on August 21, 2025: 5130.00 [3] - Closing price trends from August 15 - 21, 2025: Decreased from 5306.00 to 5130.00 [3] - Dollar - converted price trends from August 15 - 21, 2025: Decreased from 645.15 to 623.85 [3] - Daily price change rates from August 15 - 21, 2025: - 0.22565%, - 1.01772%, - 1.40899%, - 0.81112%, - 0.11682% [3] - Shandong Yinxing basis trends from August 15 - 21, 2025: Increased from 544 to 670 [3] - Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai Yinxing basis trends from August 15 - 21, 2025: Increased from 579 to 685 [3] Group 3: Pulp Price and Profit Information - Canadian Lion brands (Golden Lion, Lion) and Chilean Silver Star price, import profit: Golden Lion (CFR, port price 780 dollars, Shandong price 6350 yuan, profit - 48.45 yuan); Lion (CFR, port price 730 dollars, Shandong price 5500 yuan, profit - 442.78 yuan); Silver Star (CFR 90 - day letter of credit, port price 720 dollars, Shandong price 5800 yuan, profit - 111.65 yuan) [4] Group 4: Pulp and Paper Product Price and Margin Information - National and Shandong regional pulp average prices from August 15 - 21, 2025: No change in all types of pulp (coniferous, broad - leaf, natural color, chemimechanical) [4] - Paper product index (cultural, packaging, living paper) from August 18 - 21, 2025: No change [4] - Paper product profit margin trends from August 18 - 21, 2025: Double - offset paper margin increased from 4.8673% to 5.0306%; Double - copper paper margin increased from 22.6786% to 22.8214%; White - card paper margin increased from - 13.4568% to - 13.3333%; Living paper margin increased from 6.8022% to 7.4515% [4] Group 5: Pulp Price Difference Information - Coniferous - broadleaf, coniferous - natural color, coniferous - chemimechanical, coniferous - waste paper price differences from August 15 - 21, 2025: Coniferous - broadleaf price difference decreased from 1650 to 1620; Coniferous - natural color price difference decreased from 450 to 400; Coniferous - chemimechanical price difference decreased from 2025 to 1975; Coniferous - waste paper price difference decreased from 4274 to 4224 [4]
合成橡胶早报-20250822
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the document Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Contract Information**: On August 21, the closing price of the main contract was 11,775, with a daily increase of 60 and an interval increase of 130; the position was 38,436, up 2,745 daily and 14,763 in the interval; the trading volume was 106,881, down 62,183 daily but up 38,728 in the interval; the warehouse receipt quantity was 12,190, unchanged daily and up 1,720 in the interval; the virtual - real ratio was 15.77, up 1 daily and 4 in the interval [3][13][23]. - **Spot Market**: The Shandong market price was 11,750, up 150 daily and 50 in the interval; the Chuanhua market price was 11,700, up 200 daily and 50 in the interval; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,900, unchanged daily and up 100 in the interval; CFR Northeast Asia was 1,450, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,725, unchanged daily and down 10 in the interval [3][13][23]. - **Profitability**: The spot processing profit was - 64, up 12 daily; the disk processing profit was - 39, down 78 daily and up 105 in the interval; the import profit was - 85,257, up 142 daily and down 733 in the interval; the export profit was - 469, down 130 daily and down 46 in the interval [3][13][23]. BD (Butadiene) - **Price**: The Shandong market price was 9,425, up 135 daily and 25 in the interval; the Jiangsu market price was 9,350, up 100 daily and 50 in the interval; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,400, unchanged; CFR China was 1,080, unchanged daily and up 10 in the interval [3][13][23]. - **Profitability**: The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 256, up 100 daily and 50 in the interval; the import profit was 442, up from the previous value; the export profit was - 1,037, down 15 daily and up 26 in the interval; the butadiene styrene production profit was 938, unchanged daily and up 100 in the interval; the SBS production profit (791 - H) was 1,145, unchanged [3][13][23]. Price Spreads - **Inter - Variety**: The Thailand mixed - butadiene spread was 2,870, down 60 daily and up 150 in the interval; the 3L - butadiene styrene spread was 2,600, down 100 daily and up 150 in the interval [3][13][23]. - **Intra - Variety**: The butadiene standard - non - standard price spread was 150, unchanged daily and down 50 in the interval; the butadiene styrene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, up 50 daily and unchanged in the interval [3][13][23].