全样本焦化焦炭库存 焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/11/25 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周変化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 日变化 | | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1649.42 | 0.00 | 3.19 | 112.42 | -7.17% 高炉开工率 | 88.58 | | -0.22 | -1.36 | 0.00% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1900.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 110.00 | 11.11% 铁水日均产量 | 236.28 | | -0.60 | -3.62 | 0.20% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1825.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 110.00 | -6.65% 盘面05 | 1778.5 | -10.50 | -32.00 | -116.50 | -11.47% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1865.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 110.00 | -6.52% 盘面09 ...

纸浆早报 注：上一日汇率 - 7.11 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/25 SP主力合约收盘价： 5220.00 | 日期 | 2025/11/24 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5220.00 | 5228.00 | 5298.00 | 5396.00 | 5408.00 | | 折美元价 | 641.97 | 641.97 | 650.10 | 662.95 | 664.17 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -0.15302% | -1.32125% | -1.81616% | -0.22189% | -1.20570% | | 山东银星基差 | 270 | 262 | 212 | 154 | 142 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 280 | 272 | 212 | 144 | 132 | | | 文化用纸 | | 包装纸 | | 生活用纸 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 双胶指 ...

串12-1日运九高企可 02估值中性偏低。核心在干短期难以证明,征伪阳季不旺，今年过年较晚。旺季启动推迟中属正常：今年欧线货量整体较好, 能会压制高度，但我们不给予过分想观预期。后续观察揽货情况，运价高点多在春节前4-5周，若后续赶季逐步兑现，02或有更高想象空间。 04仍建议逢高空思路对待。 近期欧线现货情况: Week48整体均值2200美金 (折盘1540点左右) Week49线下GEMINI和PA联盟报价在2400-2500之间，OA在2500-2700美金，均值约2500美金 (折盘1750点左右) 。 周一, OOCL调降至2530美金, CMA调降至2645美金。 点评: 周 -盘面震荡运行 12估值中性，持仓量明显减少, 将逐步走向交割逻辑, 12月第一周中枢约2400-2500美金，后续或以企稳为主 카드 | | | | | A B A B | Call Collection | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/11/ ...

| | 載 新 | 日変化 | 周变化 | 月变化 年变化 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月変化 年变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1645.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 70.00 | 3.46% Peak Downs | 214.00 | 0.00 | 3.50 | 9.50 | -2.00 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 1010.00 | 10.00 | -88.00 | -125.00 | -6.48% Goonyella | 213.00 | 0.00 | 3.50 | 8.50 | -3.00 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1510.00 | 0.00 | -40.00 | 40.00 | -4.43% 盘面05 | 1183.50 | -10.00 | -59.50 | -131.50 | -11.94% | | 安泽主焦 | 1660.00 | 0.00 | -40.00 | 60.00 | 5.06% 盘面09 | 1245.00 | -16. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack in Singapore weakened rapidly, the monthly spread ran at a historical low, the basis weakened and then oscillated at a historical low, the 380 basis weakened and then rebounded on Friday, and the European HSFO crack dropped rapidly. The EW strengthened this week. The 0.5% crack in Singapore weakened oscillatively this week, the monthly spread weakened oscillatively, and the basis strengthened slightly [6]. - In terms of inventory, global residue inventory increased. Singapore residue inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage increased significantly, ARA residue inventory increased, Fujairah residue inventory decreased slightly, high - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly, and EIA residue inventory increased. With the strengthening expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the prices of gasoline and diesel in the external market dropped significantly, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel rebounded this week. After the Al Zour refinery caught fire and shut down on October 21st, the Singapore basis has started to rebound recently [7]. - As global residue enters the inventory accumulation cycle, the external crack is expected to be supported by the decline in crude oil prices, showing a short - term oscillatory pattern. For FU01, maintain a high - short idea, and consider arranging 1 - 2 reverse spreads. The short - term downward space for low - sulfur fuel oil is limited [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 359.79 | 351.60 | 354.27 | 342.52 | 348.30 | 5.78 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 411.23 | 401.83 | 401.58 | 392.05 | 395.61 | 3.56 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 6.97 | - 7.51 | - 7.11 | - 7.70 | - 7.85 | - 0.15 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 732.42 | 724.68 | 705.27 | 674.04 | 673.82 | - 0.22 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 321.19 | - 322.85 | - 303.69 | - 281.99 | - 278.21 | 3.78 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 33.67 | 34.17 | 31.62 | 28.61 | 26.56 | - 2.05 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 51.44 | 50.23 | 47.31 | 49.53 | 47.31 | - 2.22 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 355.32 | 354.49 | 352.24 | 348.23 | 351.28 | 3.05 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 360.57 | 362.97 | 354.70 | 352.69 | 357.09 | 4.40 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 448.99 | 446.34 | 437.80 | 427.47 | 427.09 | - 0.38 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 93.29 | 95.91 | 94.36 | 88.67 | 87.53 | - 1.14 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 7.45 | - 8.02 | - 7.92 | - 7.06 | - 7.38 | - 0.32 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 241.36 | - 263.39 | - 260.46 | - 228.69 | - 220.63 | 8.06 | [4][10] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 348.12 | 348.03 | 345.42 | 343.36 | 344.02 | 0.66 | | FOB VLSFO | 448.99 | 446.12 | 438.34 | 427.46 | 423.62 | - 3.84 | | 380 Basis | - 6.55 | - 5.80 | - 5.25 | - 4.55 | - 4.00 | 0.55 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 5.9 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | - 1.6 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 8.4 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 4.0 | - 2.6 | [5] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2558 | 2560 | 2517 | 2502 | 2512 | 10 | | FU 05 | 2606 | 2609 | 2565 | 2539 | 2554 | 15 | | FU 09 | 2579 | 2578 | 2541 | 2513 | 2520 | 7 | | FU 01 - 05 | - 48 | - 49 | - 48 | - 37 | - 42 | - 5 | | FU 05 - 09 | 27 | 31 | 24 | 26 | 34 | 8 | | FU 09 - 01 | 21 | 18 | 24 | 11 | 8 | - 3 | [5] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3247 | 3266 | 3139 | 3078 | 3041 | - 37 | | LU 05 | 3223 | 3240 | 3145 | 3085 | 3068 | - 17 | | LU 09 | 3232 | 3246 | 3160 | 3119 | 3108 | - 11 | | LU 01 - 05 | 24 | 26 | - 6 | - 7 | - 27 | - 20 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 9 | - 6 | - 15 | - 34 | - 40 | - 6 | | LU 09 - 01 | - 15 | - 20 | 21 | 41 | 67 | 26 | [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and high imports are likely in November. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, making inventory reduction difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the inland market. Although coal prices have strengthened recently, it does not affect methanol profits [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains unchanged. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differences are fluctuating, with LD weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotations, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [4]. - **PP**: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differences are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differences are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The production of drawing materials is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or PDH plants have more maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [4]. - **PVC**: The basis of the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether future export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 18 - 24, 2025, the price of thermal coal futures remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price increased from 2010 to 2053, the South China spot price increased from 2005 to 2028, and the Northwest discounted price increased from 2568 to 2588. The daily change on November 24 showed an increase in most prices, with the largest increase in the import profit, which rose by 64 [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From November 18 - 24, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 730 on some days. The North China LL price increased from 6770 to 6760, and the East China LL price remained at 7000 on some days and then decreased slightly. The two - oil inventory decreased from 71 to a lower level, and the warehouse receipt decreased from 12017 to 11721. The daily change on November 24 showed an increase in the主力期货 price by 23 and a decrease in the warehouse receipt by 114 [4]. PP - **Price Data**: From November 18 - 24, 2025, the Shandong propylene price remained at 5900 on some days. The East China PP price decreased from 6340 to 6285, and the North China PP price decreased from 6315 to 6255. The two - oil inventory decreased from 71 to a lower level, and the export profit showed some fluctuations. The daily change on November 24 showed a decrease in most prices and a 15 - point increase in the主力期货 price [4]. PVC - **Price Data**: From November 18 - 24, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price increased from 2450 to 2450 (with a 50 - point increase on November 24), and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 792 to 777. The East China price of calcium carbide - based PVC increased from 4520 to 4530. The basis of the high - end delivery product increased from - 90 to - 70 [4].

Report Information - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2][10] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3][11] - Report Date: November 25, 2025 [3][11] Key Points BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Information**: On November 24, the price of the BR main contract (12) was 10,395, with a daily increase of 10 and a weekly decrease of 110. The holding volume was 70,323, with a daily increase of 2,076 and a weekly decrease of 1,698. The trading volume was 131,155, with a daily decrease of 36,200 and a weekly decrease of 9,991. The warehouse receipt quantity was 12,500, with a daily increase of 470 and a weekly increase of 250. The virtual - real ratio was 28.13, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1 [4][12]. - **Basis/Month Spread/Inter - Variety Spread**: The 12 - 01 spread was 0, with a daily increase of 30 and a weekly decrease of 5. The 01 - 02 spread was 20, with a daily decrease of 10 and no weekly change. The RU - BR spread was 4,925, with a daily increase of 70 and a weekly increase of 135. The NR - BR spread was 1,880, with a daily decrease of 20 and a weekly increase of 40 [4][12]. - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 10,500, with a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 50. The Transfar market price was 10,350, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 50. The Qilu ex - factory price was 10,700, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 200. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,350, with no daily or weekly change. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,700, with no daily or weekly change [4][12]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 982, with a daily increase of 229 and a weekly increase of 78. The import profit was - 849, with a daily increase of 62 and a weekly decrease of 49. The export profit was 1,875, with a daily decrease of 56 and a weekly increase of 43 [4][12]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 7,175, with a daily decrease of 175 and a weekly decrease of 125. The Jiangsu market price was 7,000, with a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 50. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7,200, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 200. The CFR China price was 970, with no daily or weekly change [4][12]. - **Profit**: The ethylene cracking profit was - 56 on November 21 (data for November 24 is unavailable). The C4 extraction profit was 195 on November 20 and 285 on November 21 (data for November 24 is unavailable). The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1,814, with a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 50 [4][12].

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Morning Report - Report Date: November 25, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - No clear core view is presented in the provided content. The report mainly offers price, supply, demand, inventory, and cost - profit data for ferroalloys such as ferrosilicon and ferromanganese. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - **Ferrosilicon**: - Spot prices vary by region and type. For example, Ningxia 72 natural block ferrosilicon is 5130 yuan, with a weekly change of - 20 yuan; Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon export price is 1020 US dollars, with a weekly change of - 10 US dollars [2]. - Futures prices also show differences among different contracts. The main contract of ferrosilicon is 5456 yuan, down 16 yuan daily and 206 yuan weekly [2]. - **Ferromanganese**: - Spot prices of ferromanganese in different regions have different changes. Inner Mongolia 6517 ferromanganese has an ex - factory price of 5520 yuan, with a weekly change of - 80 yuan [2]. - Futures prices of different contracts also fluctuate. The main contract of ferromanganese is 5630 yuan, up 24 yuan daily and down 162 yuan weekly [2]. Supply - **Ferrosilicon**: - The production data of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises in China are presented, including monthly output, weekly output, and capacity utilization in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - **Ferromanganese**: - The weekly production volume of ferromanganese in China and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group are provided [6]. Demand - **Ferrosilicon**: - Related to the production of products such as crude steel, stainless - steel crude steel, and metal magnesium. For example, the estimated monthly production of crude steel in China and the production of stainless - steel crude steel are shown [4]. - **Ferromanganese**: - The demand data of ferromanganese in China (according to Steel Union's caliber) are given, and it is also related to the production of crude steel [4][7]. Inventory - **Ferrosilicon**: - The inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, including total inventory and inventory in different regions like Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, are provided. Also, data on warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days in different regions are presented [5]. - **Ferromanganese**: - The inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China, warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days in China are shown [7]. Cost and Profit - **Ferrosilicon**: - Cost - related data include electricity prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi) and the market price of semi - coke in Shaanxi. Profit - related data include the profit of ferrosilicon in Ningxia (converted to the main contract and spot profit) and the export profit of 75% ferrosilicon [5]. - **Ferromanganese**: - Profit data in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region are provided, as well as the profit of Guangxi ferromanganese converted to the main contract [7].

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4072.85 with no change [1] - London Silver's latest price is 48.91 with no change [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1522.00, down 23.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1388.00, down 16.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 58.84, up 0.78 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 10777.00, up 101.50 [1] - US Dollar Index's latest price is 100.20, up 0.05 [1] - Euro to US Dollar's latest price is 1.15 with no change [1] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest price is 1.31 with no change [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest price is 156.92, up 0.51 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest price is 1.82 with no change [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 14329.69, up 0.24 [2] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 532.30, up 13.03 [2] - Gold ETF's latest position is 1040.86, up 0.29 [2] - Silver ETF's latest position is 15257.92 with no change [2] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 822.42 with no change [2] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [2] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2 with no change [2]

研究中心农产品团队 2025/11/25 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/11/18 | 2070 | 2180 | 2130 | 2360 | 12 | 30 - | 2700 | 2800 | 188 | -10 | | 2025/11/19 | 2070 | 2170 | 2130 | 2360 | -5 | 40 185 | 2700 | 2800 | 225 | -1 | | 2025/11/20 | 2070 | 2170 | 2150 | 2350 | 2 | 30 197 | 2700 | 2800 | 232 | -1 | | 2025/11/21 | 2070 | 2170 | 2170 | 2360 | -25 | 40 216 | 2700 | 2850 | 193 ...