Group 1: Overall Investment Outlook - The copper market is expected to maintain a long - position approach with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December, considering the structural supply - demand gap in 2026 and loose overseas liquidity [1] - The aluminum market is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term, but demand may be weak at the beginning of 2026 and then tighten with demand growth [2] - The zinc market's price may not fall deeply due to potential supply reduction at the end of the year. Short - term unilateral trading is advised to be on the sidelines, while attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities and 01 - 03 calendar spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5] - The nickel market has a weak short - term fundamental situation, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be monitored due to ongoing policy support in Indonesia [8] - The stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be considered because of potential policy support in Indonesia [11] - The lead market is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan/ton next week, and risks associated with low warehouse receipts should be noted [15] - The tin market shows signs of weakening in the short term, but it can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026. Attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections [18] - The industrial silicon market is expected to have balanced supply and demand in December, with prices fluctuating with costs. In the long term, prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [21] - The lithium carbonate market has a short - term situation of strong supply and demand. The upside potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, or stronger holding intentions [23] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices reached a new high this week and then declined on Friday night. The 2026 supply - demand gap remains, and inventory is unevenly distributed globally [1] - In China, consumption has slowed down due to high prices, and a slight inventory build - up is expected until the Spring Festival. The monthly spread and import profit window are still suppressed [1] - Overseas liquidity remains loose, and the copper price should be bought on dips, with a December price range of $10,800 - $12,000 [1] Group 3: Aluminum - The aluminum market was affected by interest - rate cut expectations, and terminal demand was lower than expected, causing two significant price corrections this week [2] - In the short term, the apparent demand for aluminum ingots and products is still good, but demand may be weak at the beginning of 2026 [2] Group 4: Zinc - Zinc prices rose this week, and the LME zinc 0 - 3M premium declined from $163 to $90.6 [5] - Supply - side TC for domestic and imported zinc concentrates is declining rapidly, and domestic mine supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. Multiple smelters will conduct maintenance in December, with an expected output decline of 15,000 - 18,000 tons [5] - Demand is seasonally weak domestically, while in overseas markets, European demand is average and US zinc imports have increased recently. The domestic social inventory is decreasing, and the spot is in short supply [5] Group 5: Nickel - The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly this week, demand was weak, and inventories continued to build up both at home and abroad [8] - There are ongoing disruptions in the Indonesian nickel ore market, and the policy side has a motivation to support prices. Short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be monitored [8] Group 6: Stainless Steel - The supply of stainless steel remains at a high level, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high [11] - The Indonesian policy side has a motivation to support prices, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be considered [11] Group 7: Lead - Lead prices declined slightly this week. The supply of primary lead is high, and the supply of concentrates is tight. The supply of recycled lead has increased, and demand is expected to weaken [14][15] - The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, but the battery factory's high - level operation is not enough to build up inventory. The lead price has returned to the 17,000 - yuan range [15] - The lead price is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan/ton next week, and risks associated with low warehouse receipts should be noted [15] Group 8: Tin - Tin prices rose rapidly this week due to macro - sentiment and capital allocation [18] - The supply - side processing fee for tin ore remains low, and overseas production recovery is slow. However, high prices are stimulating inventory exports [18] - Demand is mainly supported by rigid needs, and downstream order - taking willingness has weakened. Inventories have increased both at home and abroad [18] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be balanced in December, and prices will fluctuate with costs [21] - In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [21] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market oscillated strongly this week. The supply of raw materials is tight, and upstream inventories are being reduced [23] - Downstream demand was active at the beginning of the week but weakened after the price rebound. The short - term supply and demand are both strong [23] - The upside potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, or stronger holding intentions [23]

焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/12/19 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1540.20 | 0.00 | -54.61 | -109.23 | -10.31% 高炉开工率 | 85.92 | | -1.16 | -2.88 | -1.61% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1790.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -110.00 | 7.83% 铁水日均产量 | 226.50 | | -2.70 | -9.78 | -1.27% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1715.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -110.00 | -9.74% 盘面05 | 1712.5 | 48.50 | 55.50 | -91.50 | -7.76% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1755.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -110.00 | -9.54% 盘面09 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Morning Report - Date: December 19, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the report 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price 3.1.1 Silicon Iron (SiFe) - Spot prices of SiFe vary by region and grade. For example, the latest price of Ningxia 72 SiFe natural block is 5,200 yuan, with a daily change of 80 yuan and a weekly change of 100 yuan. The latest price of Tianjin 72 SiFe export is 1,020 US dollars, with no daily or weekly change [2] - Futures prices also vary by contract. The latest price of the SiFe main contract is 5,592 yuan, with a daily change of 46 yuan and a weekly change of 174 yuan [2] 3.1.2 Silicon Manganese (SiMn) - Spot prices of SiMn also vary by region and grade. The latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 SiMn is 5,540 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly change of 20 yuan [2] - Futures prices of SiMn also vary by contract. The latest price of the SiMn main contract is 5,780 yuan, with a daily change of 22 yuan and a weekly change of 68 yuan [2] 3.2 Supply 3.2.1 Silicon Iron - The production capacity utilization rate of 136 SiFe production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi shows different trends over the years from 2021 - 2025 [4] - The monthly production of 136 SiFe enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, and the weekly production of 136 SiFe enterprises (with a capacity share of 95%) in China also shows different trends [4] 3.2.2 Silicon Manganese - The weekly production of SiMn in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, and the capacity utilization rate and production of SiMn enterprises show different trends [6] 3.3 Demand 3.3.1 Silicon Iron - The demand for SiFe is related to the production of products such as crude steel, stainless - steel crude steel, and metal magnesium. The monthly production forecasts and actual production of these products from 2021 - 2025 are presented [4] - The export volume of SiFe from China from 2021 - 2025 is also presented [4] 3.3.2 Silicon Manganese - The demand for SiMn is related to the production of crude steel. The monthly production forecasts and actual production of crude steel from 2021 - 2025 are presented [4] - The demand for SiMn in China (in ten thousand tons) from 2021 - 2025 is presented, and the export volume of SiMn from China from 2021 - 2025 is also presented [7] 3.4 Inventory 3.4.1 Silicon Iron - The weekly inventory of 60 sample SiFe enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 is presented [5] - The daily warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of warehouse receipt and effective forecast of SiFe from 2021 - 2025 are also presented [5] - The average available inventory days of SiFe in East China, South China, North China, and China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [5] 3.4.2 Silicon Manganese - The daily warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of warehouse receipt and effective inventory of SiMn from 2021 - 2025 are presented [7] - The weekly inventory of 63 sample SiMn enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, and the average available inventory days of SiMn in China from 2021 - 2025 are also presented [7] 3.5 Cost and Profit 3.5.1 Silicon Iron - The electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 are presented, which are important factors in the cost of SiFe production [5] - The market price of semi - coking coal in Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 is presented [5] - The production cost, the profit converted to the main contract, and the spot profit of SiFe in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 are presented [5] 3.5.2 Silicon Manganese - The prices of raw materials such as chemical coke, manganese ore from different origins, and different grades from 2021 - 2025 are presented, which are important factors in the cost of SiMn production [6] - The profit of SiMn in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region from 2021 - 2025 is presented, as well as the profit of SiMn in Guangxi and Ningxia converted to the main contract [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Coking Coal Daily Report - Date: December 19, 2025 - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Price and Inventory Data Coal Prices - **柳林主焦**: The latest price is 1,500.00, with a daily change of -5.00, a weekly change of -5.00, a monthly change of -145.00, and an annual change of 3.45% [2] - **原煤口岸库提价**: The latest price is 970.00, with a daily change of 51.00, a weekly change of 48.00, a monthly change of -27.00, and an annual change of 0.00% [2] - **沙河驿蒙5**: The latest price is 1,360.00, with a daily change of 0.00, a weekly change of -40.00, a monthly change of -190.00, and an annual change of -8.72% [2] - **安泽主焦**: The latest price is 1,600.00, with a daily change of 100.00, a weekly change of 100.00, a monthly change of -60.00, and an annual change of 3.23% [2] Inventory Data - **总库存**: The latest inventory is 3,626.39, with a weekly change of 3.27, a monthly change of 249.38, and an annual change of -16.41% [2] - **煤矿库存**: The latest inventory is 272.77, with a weekly change of 17.46, a monthly change of 86.85, and an annual change of -19.17% [2] - **港口库存**: The latest inventory is 307.50, with a weekly change of 11.00, a monthly change of 9.00, and an annual change of -31.50% [2] - **钢厂焦煤库存**: The latest inventory is 794.65, with a weekly change of -3.62, a monthly change of 4.48, and an annual change of 5.11% [2] - **焦化焦煤库存**: The latest inventory is 1,037.30, with a weekly change of 28.10, a monthly change of -31.67, and an annual change of -0.23% [2] Futures Data - **盘面05**: The latest price is 1,108.00, with a daily change of 46.00, a weekly change of 79.50, a monthly change of -75.50, and an annual change of -6.97% [2] - **盘面09**: The latest price is 1,183.50, with a daily change of 48.00, a weekly change of 83.50, a monthly change of -61.00, and an annual change of -5.96% [2] - **盘面01**: The latest price is 1,005.50, with a daily change of 35.00, a weekly change of 59.00, a monthly change of -118.00, and an annual change of -11.53% [2] Basis and Spread Data - **05基差**: The latest basis is -104.78, with a daily change of -46.00, a weekly change of -122.03, a monthly change of -221.05, and an annual change of -54.93% [2] - **09基差**: The latest basis is -180.28, with a daily change of -48.00, a weekly change of -126.03, a monthly change of -235.55, and an annual change of 0.54% [2] - **01基差**: The latest basis is -2.28, with a daily change of -35.00, a weekly change of -101.53, a monthly change of -178.55, and an annual change of -1.49% [2] - **5 - 9价差**: The latest spread is -75.50, with a daily change of -2.00, a weekly change of -4.00, a monthly change of -14.50, and an annual change of 0.12% [2] - **9 - 1价差**: The latest spread is 178.00, with a daily change of 13.00, a weekly change of 24.50, a monthly change of 57.00, and an annual change of 0.46% [2] - **1 - 5价差**: The latest spread is -102.50, with a daily change of -11.00, a weekly change of -20.50, a monthly change of -42.50, and an annual change of 0.88% [2] Other Data - **焦化产能利用率**: The latest utilization rate is 72.05, with a weekly change of -1.11, a monthly change of 0.34, and an annual change of -1.33% [2] - **焦化焦炭库存**: The latest inventory is 85.73, with a weekly change of -0.22, a monthly change of 0.50, and an annual change of -0.89% [2]

| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/12/19 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/12/12 | 3110 | 3250 | 3280 | 3270 | 3480 | 3350 | | 2025/12/15 | 3100 | 3250 | 3280 | 3270 | 3480 | 3350 | | 2025/12/16 | 3100 | 3290 | 3310 | 3270 | 3480 | 3350 | | 2025/12/17 | 3100 | 3290 | 3310 | 3270 | 3480 | 3350 | | 2025/12/18 | 3140 | 3320 | 3390 | 3270 | 3520 | 3380 | | 变化 | 40 | 30 | 80 | 0 | 40 | 30 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热 ...

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/12/19 日期 华东 华北 中部 华南 东北 西南 2025/12/12 2168 2248 2030 2206 2215 2084 2025/12/15 2167 2251 2033 2217 2215 2084 2025/12/16 2169 2252 2034 2221 2215 2085 2025/12/17 2169 2250 2034 2222 2215 2085 2025/12/18 2172 2253 2030 2224 2216 2087 环比 3 3 -4 2 1 2 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担 期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the investment rating of the industry [1] 2. Core View of the Report - No clear - cut core view presented in the given content. The report mainly presents data on the synthetic rubber market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Data** - On December 18, the BR主力合约(12) was at 11040, down 120 from the previous day and up 320 from November 18. The holding volume was 101376, down 4040 from the previous day and up 11542 from November 18. The trading volume was 127434, down 54002 from the previous day and up 3589 from November 18. The warehouse receipt quantity reached 20180, up 500 from the previous day and up 1000 from November 18 [4] - The virtual - to - real ratio was 25.12, down 2 from the previous day and up 2 from November 18. The butadiene rubber basis was - 190, up 20 from the previous day and down 120 from November 18 [4] - The 02 - 03 spread was - 10, unchanged from the previous day and up 15 from November 18. The 03 - 04 spread was - 52, down 25 from the previous day and down 10 from November 18 [4] - The RU - BR spread was 4280, up 50 from the previous day and down 230 from November 18. The NR - BR spread was 1415, up 5 from the previous day and down 195 from November 18 [4] - **Spot Data** - The Shandong market price was 10850, down 100 from the previous day and up 200 from November 18. The Transfar market price was 10800, down 150 from the previous day and up 220 from November 18 [4] - The Qilu ex - factory price was 10900, unchanged from the previous day and up 300 from November 18. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1350, unchanged from the previous day and up 25 from November 18. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1600, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged from November 18 [4] - **Profit Data** - The spot processing profit was 618, up 119 from the previous day and down 183 from November 18. The import profit was - 398, down 100 from the previous day and up 18 from November 18. The export profit was 1188, up 87 from the previous day and down 191 from November 18 [4] BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Data** - The Shandong market price was 7875, down 215 from the previous day and up 375 from November 18. The Jiangsu market price was 7750, down 75 from the previous day and up 375 from November 18 [4] - The Yangtze ex - factory price was 7800, unchanged from the previous day and up 450 from November 18. The CFR China price was 870, unchanged from the previous day and up 10 from November 18 [4] - **Profit Data** - The ethylene cracking profit data on December 18 was N/A. The carbon - four extraction profit data on December 18 was also N/A. The butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1234, down 175 from the previous day and up 275 from November 18 [4] - The import profit was 675, down 75 from the previous day and up 306 from November 18. The export profit was - 1328, up 136 from the previous day and up 300 from November 18 [4] - The styrene - butadiene production profit was 1213, unchanged from the previous day and down 125 from November 18. The ABS production profit was - 643, up 45 from the previous day and up 47 from November 18. The SBS production profit was - 425, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 from November 18 [4]

示 沥青早报 周度变化 -2830 -2970 -2920 10 7 20 -10 132765 37940 -500 -1.6 -2960 -2840 -2980 -2930 60 2025 2019 2022 2024 2020 2021 2023 2025 2019 2024 2021 2022 2023 2025 2020 BU02-03 BU03-06 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 7/1 8/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 3/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 4/1 -20 -20 -40 -40 -60 -60 -80 -80 r -100 -100 2019 2021 2022 2023 2024 2020 2025 2019 2020 -2021 2022 - 2024 2025 2023 BU主力合约 BU远期结构 5000 3150 4500 3100 3050 4000 3000 3500 2950 2900 3000 MAR MA 2850 W 2500 2800 3/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 4/1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market information, export - sales data, import data, and production - inventory data of major countries in the oilseeds and oils market, as well as price data [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Overnight Market Information - A private exporter reported the sale of 114,000 tons of soybeans for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year to unknown destinations [1] US Export Sales Data - For the week ending November 27, US soybean export sales net increased by 1.106 million tons, down 52% from the previous week and 7% from the four - week average, with net sales of 2.142 million tons to the Chinese mainland; export shipments were 803,500 tons, up 5% from the previous week and down 25% from the four - week average. New sales were 1.2148 million tons for the current market year and 10,000 tons for the next market year [1] - For the week ending November 27, US soybean meal export sales net increased by 436,000 tons, up 189% from the previous week and 112% from the four - week average; export shipments were 367,400 tons, up 9% from the previous week and 22% from the four - week average. New sales were 487,600 tons for the current market year and 0 tons for the next market year [1] China's Import Data - In November 2025, China's edible oil imports were 1.03 million tons, up 42.9% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to November were 9.03 million tons, up 5.9% year - on - year. Soybean oil imports were 50,000 tons, up 827.2% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to November were 340,000 tons, up 23.8% year - on - year. Palm oil imports were 330,000 tons, up 97.8% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to November were 2.29 million tons, down 7.6% year - on - year. Rapeseed and mustard oil imports were 170,000 tons, down 16.8% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to November were 1.91 million tons, up 14.5% year - on - year [1] Indonesia's Production and Export Data - In October, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 10% to 2.33 million tons compared to the previous month, despite increased production. Domestic consumption increased by 8.5% to 2.22 million tons. Crude palm oil production was 4.35 million tons, higher than 3.93 million tons in September. The 1 - 10 month crude palm oil production increased by nearly 10%. Palm oil product exports were 2.8 million tons, down about 3% from the previous year [1] Canada's Rapeseed Data - AAFC raised the forecast for Canada's rapeseed ending stocks in the 2025/2026 season by 450,000 tons to 2.95 million tons in its December 17 report, higher than 1.597 million tons in the 2024/2025 season. Rapeseed export forecast was raised from 7 million tons in November to 8 million tons, but still 1.3 million tons lower year - on - year. Domestic rapeseed use forecast reached a record high of 12 million tons [1] Price Data - The report provides the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 12 to December 18, 2025 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Middle East has a tight supply of LPG, and prices are unlikely to drop significantly in winter. The domestic LPG futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent operation of PDH under high costs and the situation of factory warehouse warrants [4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Price Changes - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4398 (+0), in Shandong was 4380 (-30), and in South China was 4500 (+10). The price of etherified C4 was 4610 (+10). The lowest delivery location was Shandong [4] - The PG futures price dropped due to factors such as falling oil prices, news of PDH shutdown, and an increase in warrants. The basis was 265 (+122), the 01 - 02 month spread was 84 (+5), and the 03 - 04 month spread was -223 (-12). The number of warrants was 5476 lots (+865) [4] - The price of domestic civil LPG decreased. The cheapest deliverable product was civil LPG in East China at 4419 [4] Market Conditions - The overseas paper market first rose and then fell. The FEI and CP month spreads strengthened, while the MB month spread weakened. The oil - gas ratio declined. The domestic - overseas spread weakened, with PG - CP at 71 (-28) and PG - FEI at 65 (-14). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened [4] - The arrival of LPG increased by 12.25%, and port inventories increased by 3.22%. External sales increased slightly by 1.3%, and refinery storage capacity increased slightly by 0.27%. Although the profit of chemical demand was poor, the operating rate was firm, with the PDH operating rate at 72.87% (+2.65pct) [4] Profit and Cost - The spot and futures profits of PDH weakened. The performance of alkylation units deteriorated, and the MTBE profit fluctuated [4] - The arrival premium of propane in East China was 85 (-7), and the FOB premiums of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the US were 42 (+12), 42 (+17), and 47 (+4) respectively. Freight rates increased slightly [4]