Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [3] Group 2: BR Main Contract Data - Closing Price: On August 21, it was 11,775, with a daily change of 60 and a weekly change of 130 [4] - Open Interest: On August 21, it was 38,436, with a daily change of 2,745 and a weekly change of 14,763 [4] - Trading Volume: On August 21, it was 106,881, with a daily change of -62,183 and a weekly change of 38,728 [4] - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: On August 21, it was 12,190, with no daily change and a weekly change of 1,720 [4] - Virtual-to-Physical Ratio: On August 21, it was 15.77, with a weekly change of 4 [4] Group 3: BR Basis and Spread Data - Butadiene Styrene Basis: On August 21, it was 510, with a daily change of 90 and a weekly change of -80 [4] - 8 - 9 Month Spread: On August 21, it was 70, with a daily change of 150 and a weekly change of -185 [4] - 9 - 10 Month Spread: On August 21, it was -20, with a daily change of -10 and a weekly change of -20 [4] Group 4: BR Price Data - Shandong Market Price: On August 21, it was 11,750, with a daily change of 150 and a weekly change of 50 [4] - Chuanhua Market Price: On August 21, it was 11,700, with a daily change of 200 and a weekly change of 50 [4] - Qilu Factory Price: On August 21, it was 11,900, with no daily change and a weekly change of 100 [4] - CFR Northeast Asia: On August 21, it was 1,450, with no daily change and no weekly change [4] - CFR Southeast Asia: On August 21, it was 1,725, with no daily change and a weekly change of -10 [4] Group 5: BR Processing and Import - Export Data - Spot Processing Profit: On August 21, it was -64, with a daily change of 12 [4] - Futures Processing Profit: On August 21, it was -39, with a daily change of -78 and a weekly change of 105 [4] - Import Profit: On August 21, it was -85,257, with a daily change of 142 and a weekly change of -733 [4] - Export Profit: On August 21, it was -469, with a daily change of -130 and a weekly change of -46 [4] Group 6: BD Price Data - Shandong Market Price: On August 21, it was 9,425, with a daily change of 135 and a weekly change of 25 [4] - Jiangsu Market Price: On August 21, it was 9,350, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 50 [4] - Yangzi Factory Price: On August 21, it was 9,400, with no daily change and no weekly change [4] - CFR China: On August 21, it was 1,080, with no daily change and a weekly change of 10 [4] Group 7: BD Processing and Import - Export Data - Carbon Four Extraction Profit: The data on August 21 was N/A [4] - Butene Oxidative Dehydrogenation Profit: On August 21, it was 256, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 50 [4] - Import Profit: On August 21, it was 442, with a daily change of [missing value] and a weekly change of -29 [4] - Export Profit: On August 21, it was 1,037, with a daily change of -15 and a weekly change of 26 [4] Group 8: Downstream Product Profit Data - Butadiene - Styrene Production Profit: On August 21, it was 938, with no daily change and a weekly change of 100 [4] - ABS Production Profit: The data on August 21 was N/A [4] - SBS Production Profit (791 - H): On August 21, it was 1,145, with no daily change and no weekly change [4] Group 9: Inter - Variety Spread Data - RU - BR: On August 21, it was -22,716, with a daily change of -2,700 and a weekly change of -14,678 [4] - NR - BR: On August 21, it was -25,836, with a daily change of -2,670 and a weekly change of -14,653 [4] - Thai Mixed - Butadiene: On August 21, it was 2,870, with a daily change of -60 and a weekly change of 150 [4] - 3L - Butadiene - Styrene: On August 21, it was 2,600, with a daily change of -100 and a weekly change of 150 [4] Group 10: Intra - Variety Spread Data - Butadiene Standard - Non - Standard Price Difference: On August 21, it was 150, with no daily change and a weekly change of -50 [4] - Butadiene - Styrene 1502 - 1712: On August 21, it was 1,000, with a daily change of 50 and no weekly change [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The overall strategy maintains the logic of shorting on rallies. This is because the overall situation in September is loose, the subsequent drivers continue to be weak; currently, the October contract is at a discount of about 450 points to the spot, and there is still expected to be room for decline; the valuation of the far - month contracts is unclear, more affected by drivers, and due to low positions, they are greatly affected by macro and capital behaviors [2][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 EC Futures Contract Price and Month - spread - **Contract Prices**: On August 21, 2025, the closing prices of EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 2123.0, 1355.0, 1775.9, 1532.0, 1314.3, and 1480.0 respectively, with changes of - 0.20%, - 1.12%, 0.05%, - 0.22%, - 0.67%, and - 0.82% [2][16] - **Month - spreads**: The month - spreads of EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512, and EC2512 - 2602 on the previous day were 768.0, - 420.9, and 243.9 respectively, with daily changes of 11.0, - 16.2, and 4.3 [2][16] 3.2 Shipping Indexes - **SCF (European Line)**: On August 18, 2025, the value was 2180.17, a decrease of 2.47% from the previous period [2][16] - **CCFI**: On August 15, 2025, it was 1790.47 points, a decrease of 0.48% from the previous period [2][16] - **NCFI**: On August 15, 2025, it was 1188.69 points, a decrease of 5.49% from the previous period [2][16] 3.3 Weekly Booking Situation - **Week 34 - 35**: Currently, downstream is booking week 34 - 35 (end of August) positions. The final average price of week 34 was 2850 US dollars (2000 points). The current average quote of week 35 is 2625 US dollars (1840 points), with PA Alliance at 2500 US dollars, MSK at 2300 US dollars, and OA Alliance at 2700 - 2800 US dollars. Fundamentally, MSK is better, OA is average, and PA is worse [2][16] - **Week 35 - 36**: Currently, downstream is booking week 35 - 36 (end of August to early September) positions. The average price of week 35 is 2575 US dollars (1770 points), and that of week 36 is 2400 US dollars (1630 points) [3][17] 3.4 Shipping Capacity - The weekly average shipping capacities in August, September (tentatively), and October 2025 are 328,000, 312,000, and 315,000 TEU respectively. After planning all TBN sailings to be cancelled, they are 328,000, 297,000, and 283,000 TEU [2][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoint There is no explicit core viewpoint presented in the given report. The report mainly provides a series of data on asphalt, including futures prices, trading volumes, positions, spot prices, and various spreads and profit margins. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: The BU main contract price decreased from 3609 on 7/22 to 3454 on 8/20, a weekly change of -52. Other contracts like BU06, BU09, BU12, and BU03 also showed different degrees of decline [20]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume increased by 53,888 week - on - week to 222,537 on 8/20, and the position decreased by 16,607 to 429,967 [20]. Spot Market - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price dropped from 3845 on 7/22 to 3530 on 8/20, a weekly decline of -120. The East China market price decreased by -10, the South China market price by -20, and the Northeast market price by -20 [20]. - **Price Spreads**: The Shandong - East China spread widened to -190 on 8/20 from -80 on 8/12, a change of -110. The Shandong - Northeast spread widened to -350 from -250, a change of -100 [20]. Basis and Monthly Spreads - **Basis**: The Shandong basis decreased from 236 on 7/22 to 76 on 8/20, a weekly change of -68. The East China basis increased by 42, and the South China basis increased by 32 [20]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 06 - 09 spread changed from -224 on 7/22 to -178 on 8/20, a change of 21. The 09 - 12 spread increased by 6 [20]. Spreads and Profits - **Spreads**: The asphalt Brent spread was -6 on 7/22 and 71 on 8/20, with a weekly change of -5. - **Profits**: The asphalt MRE profit increased by 38 week - on - week to -4 on 8/20. The ordinary refinery comprehensive profit decreased by 37, and the MRE - type refinery comprehensive profit decreased by 23 [20]. Related Prices - **Crude Oil and Other Products**: The Brent crude oil price decreased by 0.8 on 8/20 compared to 8/19, with a weekly change of 0.2. The Shandong gasoline market price decreased by 90 week - on - week to 7648 on 8/20 [20].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated. The inflection point of the fundamentals has emerged, and the market is concerned about the cease - fire negotiation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US tariff measures on India. After the "Trump - Putin meeting", the risk rating of the sanctions policy has decreased. The short - term crude oil absolute price is expected to remain volatile, and the crude oil is expected to weaken in the second half of the year under the pattern of supply - demand surplus [5]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Oil Price Data - From August 14 to August 20, 2025, WTI crude oil price changed by $0.36, BRENT by $1.05, DUBAI by $0.48. Other related oil products also had corresponding price changes, such as NYMEX RB changing by $3.93, OMAN by $1.88 [3]. 2. Daily News - Driven by Asian demand, US crude oil exports are expected to rebound from the summer slump, with exports in August and September expected to exceed 4 million barrels per day [3]. - Russia expects India to continue buying Russian oil despite US tariff threats. As of mid - 2025, India imported about 1.7 million barrels of oil per day from Russia, accounting for nearly 37% of its overseas purchases [4]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - EIA report shows that in the week ending August 15, US crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day, and commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41% [4]. - From August 8 - 14, the operating rate of major refineries and Shandong local refineries in China increased slightly. Refinery output of gasoline and diesel increased, and inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries declined, while that of local refineries increased [5]. 4. Weekly Views - This week, oil prices fluctuated. The short - term crude oil absolute price is expected to remain volatile, and the crude oil is expected to weaken in the second half of the year under the pattern of supply - demand surplus. Attention should be paid to Russian crude oil supply and whether India resumes purchasing Russian oil in the spot market next week [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a morning report on glass and soda ash by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center, dated August 21, 2025 [2] Group 2: Glass Market Price Changes - From August 13 to August 20, 2025, the price of 5mm large - plate glass in different regions showed various changes. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan increased from 1160.0 to 1164.0, while that from Shahe Great Wall decreased from 1147.0 to 1130.0 [2] - Among the futures contracts, FG09 decreased from 1061.0 to 997.0, and FG01 decreased from 1214.0 to 1162.0 [2] Basis and Spread - The FG 9 - 1 spread changed from - 153.0 to - 165.0, and the 09 Hebei basis changed from 82.0 to - 32.0 [2] Profitability - The North China coal - fired profit decreased from 237.0 to 228.5, and the 09FG盘面 natural gas profit decreased from - 312.2 to - 362.1 [2] Production and Sales - The production - sales ratio in Shahe was 85, in Hubei was 121, in East China was 92, and in South China was 96 [2] Group 3: Soda Ash Market Price Changes - From August 13 to August 20, 2025, the price of heavy soda ash in different regions also had different trends. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda ash decreased from 1260.0 to 1210.0, while the price of South China heavy soda ash remained at 1450.0 [2] - Among the futures contracts, SA05 decreased from 1437.0 to 1364.0, SA01 decreased from 1383.0 to 1309.0, and SA09 decreased from 1276.0 to 1209.0 [2] Basis and Spread - The SA09 Shahe basis changed from - 16.0 to 1.0, and the SA month - difference 09 - 01 changed from - 107.0 to - 100.0 [2] Profitability - The North China ammonia - soda profit decreased from - 119.7 to - 166.7, and the North China combined - soda profit decreased from - 171.3 to - 167.9 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of heavy soda ash at the Hebei delivery warehouse was around 1180, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1210 [2]

Group 1: Report Core Views - Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed crop output is expected to be 5.7 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast, with the forecast range between 5.4 - 6.3 million tons. The near - normal temperatures by October will support crop growth, but the cooling forecast from August 25 - 31 is worth attention due to possible light frost in some areas [1] - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from August 1 - 20 increased by 13.6% compared to the same period last month, reaching 929,051 tons [1] - Indonesia plans to increase its crude palm oil annual output from 48.2 million tons in 2024 to 60 million tons by 2030 to meet the growing demand. To achieve this goal, BPDP has implemented human resource improvement plans and the government has launched a plantation revival plan [1] Group 2: Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from August 14 - 20, 2025 are provided, showing price fluctuations during this period [1][8]

Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: August 21, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: Port inventories are accumulating significantly due to high imports and current inventories. The domestic supply is expected to return, and traditional demand will enter the peak season. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the demand can support after the domestic supply returns. If the inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol is likely to experience a valuation decline [2]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The upstream two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, while coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. The import profit is around - 100 with no further increase for now. In August, the number of maintenance activities decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [7]. - **Polypropylene**: The upstream two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, and the middle - stream is reducing inventory. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been performing well this year. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, and the downstream orders are average currently. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH device maintenance activities, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 450. The downstream operating rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventory reduction of the middle and upstream has slowed down. Attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, and attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [7]. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From August 14 to August 20, the daily changes in动力煤期货price were 0,江苏现货price increased by 25,华南现货price increased by 10,鲁南折盘面price decreased by 5,西南折盘面price remained unchanged,河北折盘面price decreased by 60,西北折盘面price remained unchanged, CFR中国and CFR东南亚prices remained unchanged,进口利润remained unchanged,主力基差decreased by 5, and盘面MTO利润remained unchanged [2]. - **Market Situation**: Port inventories are high, and the domestic supply is expected to return. Traditional demand will enter the peak season later. It is necessary to focus on the demand - supply balance after the domestic supply returns [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From August 14 to August 20,东北亚乙烯price remained unchanged,华北LLprice increased by 20,华东LLprice remained unchanged,华东LDprice decreased by 25,华东HDprice decreased by 30, LL美金and LL美湾prices remained unchanged,进口利润remained unchanged,主力期货price increased by 40,基差increased by 10,两油库存remained unchanged, and仓decreased by 40 [7]. - **Market Situation**: The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is different in different regions. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 100. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and other price differences are fluctuating. The number of maintenance activities in August decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production increased month - on - month [7]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From August 14 to August 20,山东丙烯price decreased by 20,东北亚丙烯price remained unchanged,华东PPprice decreased by 40,华北PPprice decreased by 15,山东粉料price decreased by 10,华东共聚price decreased by 28, PP美金and PP美湾prices remained unchanged,出口利润remained unchanged,主力期货price increased by 40,基差remained unchanged,两油库存remained unchanged, and仓单decreased by 100 [7]. - **Market Situation**: The upstream two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, and the middle - stream is reducing inventory. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, and the downstream orders are average [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From August 14 to August 20,西北电石price remained unchanged,山东烧碱price remained unchanged,电石法 - 华东price decreased by 20,乙烯法 - 华东,电石法 - 华南, and电石法 - 西北prices remained unchanged,进口美金价（CFR中国）remained unchanged,出口利润remained unchanged,西北综合利润remained unchanged,华北综合利润remained unchanged, and基差(高端交割品) remained unchanged [7]. - **Market Situation**: The basis remains stable. The downstream operating rate is seasonally weakening, and the inventory reduction of the middle and upstream has slowed down. Attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability from July to August [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - **Silicon Iron**: On August 21, 2025, the latest spot prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 silicon iron were 5330 and 5350 respectively, with daily changes of -70 and -50, and weekly changes of -170 and -100. The latest export price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron (in US dollars) was 1055, with a daily and weekly increase of 30 [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On August 21, 2025, the latest factory - ex prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, and Guangxi 6517 silicon manganese were 5750, 5600, and 5800 respectively, with daily changes of -50, -230, and -70, and weekly changes of -50, -300, and -100 [1]. Supply - **Silicon Iron**: The production data of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly and weekly production, and capacity utilization in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [3]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are shown, including weekly production, and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group [6]. Demand - **Silicon Iron**: The demand - related data such as the estimated production of crude steel in China, the production of metal magnesium, the production of stainless - steel crude steel, and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group from 2021 - 2025 are provided [3]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The demand - related data such as the estimated production of crude steel in China and the demand in China (according to Steel Union's caliber) from 2021 - 2025 are presented [3][7]. Inventory - **Silicon Iron**: The inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025, as well as the warehouse receipt data and effective forecast data, are shown [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China, warehouse receipt data, effective forecast data, and the average available days of inventory in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [7]. Cost Profit - **Silicon Iron**: The cost - profit data such as electricity prices in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, the market price of semi - coking coal in Shaanxi, the production cost and profit in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 are provided [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The cost - profit data such as the ex - factory price of chemical coke in Ordos, the summary price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port, and the profit in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions from 2021 - 2025 are presented [6][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market risk preference remains high despite the under - performance of domestic economic and financial data. Different metals have various supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper may see a slight inventory build - up in August but a tight - balance pattern after the off - season; aluminum is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in August; zinc shows an external - strong and internal - weak short - term trend; nickel's short - term fundamentals are average; stainless steel's fundamentals are weak; lead is expected to maintain low - level oscillations; tin is in a supply - demand double - weak situation; industrial silicon may turn from a slight de - stocking to an over - supply situation; and lithium carbonate has a large short - term upward price elasticity and strong downward support [1][4][7][8][11][12][15][16][18] Summary by Metal Types Copper - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the spot import profit increased by 78.31, and the three - month import profit increased by 128.05. The LME inventory increased by 1200, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 500 [1] - **Market Analysis**: Macro sentiment shows a recovery in risk preference. Downstream orders have support around 7 - 8, and the spot market trading is okay. The domestic tax subsidy policy for scrap copper may be restricted, and attention should be paid to its impact on refined copper consumption. In August, there may be a slight inventory build - up, but the market focuses on the post - off - season tight - balance pattern [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 70, and the spot import profit increased by 26.99 [4] - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases slightly, and 1 - 6 months' aluminum ingot imports provide an increment. August is a seasonal off - season for demand, which may improve slightly in the middle and late months. Aluminum exports improve month - on - month, while photovoltaic demand declines, and overseas demand drops significantly. An inventory build - up is expected in August. Pay attention to demand during the short - term off - season and consider far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage under the low - inventory pattern [4] Zinc - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 30, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 950 [7] - **Market Analysis**: Zinc prices fluctuate widely this week. On the supply side, domestic TC has difficulty rising, while import TC increases. In August, the smelting increment is further realized, and overseas mine increments in the second quarter exceed expectations. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience, and overseas European demand is average. There may be a phased supply shortage. Domestic social inventory fluctuates and rises, while overseas L inventory decreases rapidly. Short - term: suggest waiting and observing; medium - long - term: consider short positions. Hold internal - external positive arbitrage, and pay attention to month - on - month positive arbitrage opportunities [7] Nickel - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 700, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 1776 [8] - **Market Analysis**: Pure nickel production remains at a high level. Overall demand is weak, and premiums are stable recently. Both domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remain unchanged. Short - term fundamentals are average, and the macro - side is mainly about anti - involution policy games. Continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [8] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the 304 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 100, and the 304 hot - rolled coil price decreased by 50 [11] - **Market Analysis**: Some steel mills have passive production cuts, and demand is mainly for rigid needs, with some restocking due to the macro - environment. Nickel and chrome iron prices remain stable. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan slightly decrease, and exchange warehouse receipts remain unchanged. Fundamentals are generally weak, and pay attention to future policy trends [11] Lead - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the spot import profit increased by 29.45, and the LME库存 decreased by 1850 [12] - **Market Analysis**: Lead prices oscillate this week. On the supply side, scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and recycled lead production maintains a low level. On the demand side, battery finished - product inventory is high, and the market's peak season is not prosperous. Although there is an expectation of a peak season from July to August, this week's terminal consumption de - stocking and lead ingot purchasing are weak. It is expected that lead prices will maintain low - level oscillations next week [12] Tin - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the spot import profit increased by 4836.19, and the LME库存 increased by 85 [15] - **Market Analysis**: Tin prices fluctuate widely this week. On the supply side, domestic smelting production may decline slightly in July - August, and overseas production has some uncertainties. On the demand side, solder demand has limited elasticity, and terminal electronics and photovoltaic growth are expected to decline. The domestic inventory fluctuates and rises, while overseas LME inventory is at a low level with a squeeze - out risk. Short - term: suggest short - selling at high prices; medium - long - term: hold at low prices near the cost line [15] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 135, and the 553 East China basis increased by 85 [16] - **Market Analysis**: The restart of Xinjiang's leading enterprises is less than expected, while Sichuan and Yunnan's production slightly increases. In August, there is a slight de - stocking. The restart progress of Hesheng and Southwest enterprises will determine future supply - demand balance. Short - term: if either reaches full production, supply will be in excess. Medium - long - term: the industry has a large over - capacity, and prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the SMM electric carbon price remained unchanged, and the basis of the main contract increased by 6560 [16][23] - **Market Analysis**: Affected by factors such as de - stocking data and production resumption expectations, the market is strong. Upstream lithium salt producers are willing to sell, downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs with stronger restocking willingness, and trading among traders is more active. The core contradiction is the long - term over - supply and short - term resource - end compliance disturbances. With the approaching of the downstream peak season, lithium carbonate prices have a large short - term upward elasticity and strong downward support [18]

Global Asset Market Performance - The yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies on August 20, 2025, were 4.292 in the US, 4.671 in the UK, etc. The latest changes ranged from - 0.068 in the UK to 0.031 in Brazil. Weekly, monthly, and yearly changes also varied across countries [2]. - The yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies on August 20, 2025, were 3.770 in the US, 3.918 in the UK, etc. The latest changes ranged from - 0.056 in the UK to 0.020 in the US. Weekly, monthly, and yearly changes showed different trends [2]. - The exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies on August 20, 2025, were 5.482 against the Brazilian real, 17.671 against the South African rand, etc. The latest and weekly, monthly, and yearly changes had different percentages [2]. - Major economy stock indices on August 20, 2025, were 6395.780 for the S&P 500, 44938.310 for the Dow Jones Industrial Index, etc. The latest changes ranged from - 1.51% for the Nikkei to 1.08% for the UK stock index. Weekly, monthly, and yearly changes also differed [2]. - The credit - bond indices had latest changes from - 0.22% to 0.10%, weekly changes from - 0.29% to 0.07%, monthly changes from - 0.05% to 1.95%, and yearly changes from 4.67% to 15.01% [2][3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - For A - shares, the closing price was 3766.21 with a 1.04% increase. The closing prices and percentage changes of other indices like the CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were also provided [4]. - The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 13.67 with a 0.14环比 change, and the PE (TTM) of other indices like the S&P 500 and German DAX were presented with their respective环比 changes [4]. - The risk - premium 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of the S&P 500 was - 0.60 with a 0.03环比 change, and that of the German DAX was 2.27 with a 0.06环比 change [4]. - The latest A - share fund flow was - 88.79, and the latest fund flows of other segments like the main board, SME board, etc., were also given, along with their 5 - day average values [4]. - The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 24082.34 with a - 1801.35环比 change, and the trading volumes and环比 changes of other indices were provided [4]. - The basis of the IF was - 1.40 with a - 0.03% spread, and the basis and spreads of IH and IC were also presented [4]. Treasury Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 107.855, 105.425, 107.730, and 105.370 respectively, with percentage increases of 0.04%, 0.08%, 0.08%, and 0.09% [5]. - The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.5576%, 1.5775%, and 1.5500% respectively, with daily changes of 0.00, 2.00, and 0.00 BP [5].