长江期货PTA产业周报 成本需求双弱，短期低位震荡 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-04-14 | 日期 | 4月3日 | 4月10日 | 周涨跌 | 环比 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PTA现货价格 | 4873.2 | 4316.25 | -556.95 | -11.43% | 元/吨 | 截止11日PTA现货价格+80至4310。本周及下周 主港交割及仓单05升水5-10、贴水16附近成交， 4月底主港交割05升水10-15成交。贸易摩擦单方 释放积极信号且对国内宏观支撑存预期，商品情绪 缓和，日内绝对价格上涨，现货基差大致稳定，下 游询盘谨慎，市场成交刚需。（单位：元/吨） 数据来源：隆众资讯，长江期货 行情回顾： 1 01 上周回顾——关税影 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 4 月 14 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡运行 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： 区间运行，建议区间交易 | | | ◆铝： | 适度低多 | | ◆镍： 建议观望或逢高做空 | | | ◆锡： | 区间操作 | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： | 区间操作 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： 看涨期权空头持有。 | | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 剧烈震荡 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡走强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： 近月支持较强，远月逢高偏空 | | | ◆玉米： | 逢低做多 | | ◆豆粕： ...

周五市场冲高回落。市场流动性恢复，护盘资金今天没有太发力，即使面对 昨晚川普针对性的言论，市场也没有太多恐慌，但是在上下方同时出现缺口 的情况，大概率先回补下方缺口形成双重底部。代表大盘股的上证 50ETF 是 震荡上涨，收在分时图均线上方，买方能量与卖方能量的 3.5 倍；代表小盘 股的中证 1000 也是震荡上涨，收在分时图均线下方，卖方能量与买方能量 的 5.5 倍。尽管周末传出"豁免"新闻，并不代表风险已经过去。特朗普总统 这种反复无常的变化才是不确定性的来源。未来指数大概率走震荡。 ◆ 策略建议： IH 打底仓，IM 做进攻。 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 国债 金融期货日报 ◆ 核心观点： 无论宽货币政策何时到来，近期大行负债缺口稳定、资金利率的下行以及汇 率压力的缓解，都给债市带来了满满的暖意，确定性更强的中短端受到更多 机构的青睐，下行空间打开。参考 2018 至 2019 年关税贸易战来看，短期内 迅速达成共识的难度较大，但经历上周市场剧烈波动后，贸易摩擦引发的首 轮市场冲击已阶段性释放。在未来 90 天的窗口期内，海外政策不确定性仍可 能导致市场反复震荡。当前市场波动率虽有所回落，但短期内尚难形成 ...

长江期货饲料养殖产业周报 2025-4-14 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：韦 蕾 执业编号: F0244258 投资咨询号:Z0011781 研 究 员：刘汉缘 执业编号: F03101804 投资咨询号:Z0021169 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 目 录 02 品种产业数据分析 01 生猪：供应压力后移，期价反弹承压 p 期现端：截至4月11日，全国现货价格14.7元/公斤，较上周上涨0.04元/公斤；河南猪价14.7元/公斤，较上周上涨0.19元/公斤；生猪2509报价14345元/吨，较上周上 涨485元/吨；09合约基差355元/吨，较上周下跌295元/吨。周度全国猪价窄幅波动，小幅上涨，因节后规模企业出栏恢复，消费转淡，猪价震荡调整，不过局部地区 受二育进场带动下半周猪价走强；期货主力切换至09，受现货坚挺以及中美关税扰动，主力09震荡偏强，基差走缩，周末猪价震荡偏强。 p 供应端： 2024年5-11月能繁母猪存栏量持续缓增，性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，4-9月供应呈增加态势，虽然养殖利润下滑，产能有所去化，但仔 ...

长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-4-14 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员：洪润霞 执业编号: F0260331 投资咨询号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号: F0270997 投资咨询号:Z0002826 联系人：钟 舟 执业编号: F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号: F3033495 震荡偏强 长江期货苹果产业周报 01 周度观点 1 整体观点：上周清明备货结束，不同产区走货情况有所差异，整体氛围尚可。综合来看，周内苹果较去年同期的去库 速度有所加快，基本面无明显矛盾，西部交易重心转移至客商货源交易，山东成交有所升温。销区方面，受到节日提 振，周内到货有所增加。现货价格方面，周内整体维持稳定为主，部分产区价格稳中偏硬。目前苹果的生长周期已进 入萌芽期，果树开始生长枝丫，后续需重点关注主产区低温天气的实际影响。当前苹果交割博弈加剧，盘面波动加大， 短期来看预计期现货价格偏乐观看待。 2 风险因素：市场消费情况、宏观政策因素 Ø 本周苹果主力震荡偏强运行。 Ø 苹果基差-85元，较上周+139。 02 行情回顾 数据来源：博易大师、IFIND、上海钢联、中果网 ...

2025-4-11 镍 | 专题报告 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 有色金属团队 研究员： 汪国栋 咨询电话：027-65777106 从业编号：F03101701 投资咨询编号：Z0021167 联系人： 张桓 咨询电话：027-65777106 从业编号：F03138663 印尼等镍资源国近期政策梳理及分析 有色产业服务中心 报告要点 3 月初以来，镍价由 12.7 万元一路上升触至 13.4 万元高位，短暂 冲高后大幅下跌。目前镍价主要受宏观政策影响，反观镍供需基本面整 体较为平淡。印尼等国镍相关政策及美国关税主要影响镍价。 印尼等国的镍矿相关政策主要包括调整镍产品基准价格、外汇管制 政策、镍特许使用费税率调整等。作为主要镍资源国，印尼、菲律宾相 关政策主要是确保镍价稳定，因此 3 月公布的政策直接或间接导致了镍 价短暂提升。目前调整镍矿产品特许权使用费税率政策落地在即，预计 一定程度支撑镍价。但在 HMA 计价与 LME 镍价绑定日益加深的情况 下，镍价将更容易受到外界宏观政策影响冲击，预计印尼等资源国镍相 关政策对镍价支撑难以对冲宏观环境特朗普关税 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, while treasury bonds are expected to rise in the short - term [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar, iron ore, and coking coal and coke are all in a state of oscillation. It is advisable to wait and see for rebar and iron ore [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper, consider moderately building long positions after the market panic subsides; for aluminum, strengthen observation; for nickel, wait and see or short on rallies; for tin, conduct range - bound operations; for gold and silver, build long positions at low prices after sufficient price corrections [1][12][18][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, and methanol are all in a state of oscillation. Hold short positions in call options for soda ash [1][21][23][25][27] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate sharply, apples are expected to strengthen in oscillation, and PTA is expected to weaken in oscillation [1][28][29] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are expected to weaken in oscillation, eggs have strong support in the near - term and are bearish in the far - term, corn is expected to strengthen in oscillation, soybean meal is weak in the near - term and strong in the far - term, and oils are expected to weaken in oscillation [1][32][33][34][36][37] Core Views The report analyzes the market trends of various futures products based on factors such as tariff policies, supply and demand, and macro - economic conditions. Tariff policies have a significant impact on the market, increasing market volatility and uncertainty. Supply and demand fundamentals also play a crucial role in determining product prices, and different products show different trends due to their own supply - demand characteristics. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors such as US inflation, tariff wars, and external market fluctuations, index futures are expected to oscillate [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: With increasing external uncertainties, the expectation of loose monetary policy is strengthening. The short - and medium - term is more certain, while the long - term is more volatile and may require the catalysis of domestic loose policies to break through the previous low [5] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: Although the direct impact of tariffs on steel exports is small, the indirect impact is relatively large. The short - term market fluctuates with tariff policies, and it is advisable to wait and see [7] - **Iron Ore**: Supply is strong, and the growth rate of molten iron is expected to slow down. Affected by foreign tariff policies and domestic policy expectations, it is advisable to wait and see during the roll - over period [7][8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance in the short - term, but the upward price resistance is increasing. The coke market is in a stalemate between policy negatives and industrial games, and the price fluctuation intensifies [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The tariff war has increased the probability of a global economic recession, causing copper prices to decline. However, the long - term demand logic remains, and the short - term fundamentals still have resilience [12] - **Aluminum**: The overall supply of the ore end is improving, and the demand of downstream processing enterprises is declining. It is recommended to strengthen observation and pay attention to policy changes [14] - **Nickel**: Affected by factors such as US economic data, tax policies, and supply - demand conditions, nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range - bound trading [16][17] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover, which will support demand. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices [18] - **Gold and Silver**: The tariff war has increased market panic, causing price corrections. However, central bank gold purchases, industrial demand, and hedging sentiment support prices. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices after sufficient price corrections [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The long - term demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. The short - term is affected by macro factors such as tariff wars and domestic stimulus policies [21] - **Caustic Soda**: The profit is neutral, the inventory is high, and the later trend is cautiously bearish. It is necessary to pay attention to factors such as inventory and alumina production [23] - **Rubber**: The short - term is affected by tariff policies, and the long - term fundamentals are weak, with inventory accumulation [23] - **Urea**: The supply is in a loose pattern, and the demand is relatively stable. The price fluctuates widely under the influence of market sentiment and fundamentals [25] - **Methanol**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand of the main downstream is good, but there are maintenance plans. It is expected to oscillate widely [26] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, and although the demand is improving, the price is still under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in call options [27] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: Affected by Trump's tariff policies, the market is uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see [28][29] - **Apples**: The inventory is low, and the price is expected to strengthen in oscillation, but macro risks need to be paid attention to [29] - **PTA**: The cost collapses due to factors such as US tariff policies, and although the supply - demand is good, the price is not optimistic [29][30][31] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply increases in the short - and long - term, and the demand is limited. The price is under pressure, but there is also some support. It is recommended to short on rallies [32][33] - **Eggs**: The supply pressure is large in the short - term, but it is marginally improved. The long - term supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to wait and see in the near - term and be bearish in the far - term [33] - **Corn**: The short - term has support, and the long - term supply - demand is tightening, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips and conduct positive spreads [34][35] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term is under pressure due to abundant supply, and the long - term is expected to strengthen due to factors such as tariff policies and supply - demand changes. It is recommended to be cautious in the near - term and go long in the far - term [36][37] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as tariff policies, supply - demand, and reports, the short - term may rebound slightly, and the long - term may first decline and then rebound. It is recommended to wait and see and conduct positive spreads for the price difference [37][38][39][40][41]

Report Industry Investment Rating - For stock index futures, the strategy is to expect a volatile operation [2] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term outlook is positive [3] Core Views Stock Index - US inflation cooled more than expected, with the March CPI down 0.1% month - on - month, the lowest in nearly five years, and the core CPI up 2.8% year - on - year, the lowest growth rate in four years. China's Ministry of Commerce responded to the tariff issue negotiation with the US. The domestic stock market has been strong recently, but some investors may take profits after consecutive gains due to the impact of the external market. The second - stage competition of the tariff war has begun, and there will be more subsequent games. Stock index futures may operate in a volatile manner [1] Treasury Bond - The previous monetary policy was firm. With the increasing external uncertainties, the expectation of loose money has become more solid. Coupled with the abundant lending by large banks in the past two days, the capital interest rate has steadily declined, and the liquidity has improved. The market is betting on the approaching of loose monetary policy, and the yield curve is more likely to steepen. The certainty of the short - to - medium - term is relatively stronger. Although the long - end lacks the basis for a significant upward movement, it is affected by external tariff disturbances and the uncertainty of negotiations between countries, with significantly increased volatility and more repeated trends. Overall, the long - end interest rate may need the catalysis of the substantial implementation of domestic loose policies to break through the previous low [2] Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 1.46%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.74%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 1.86%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 2.33% [4] Treasury Bond - The 10 - year main contract fell 0.005%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.07%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.24%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03% [6] Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market is operating weakly in a volatile manner [5] Treasury Bond - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract is operating strongly in a volatile manner [7] Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/10 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3673.00 | 1.459 | 83748 | 141689 | | 2025/04/10 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2582.20 | 0.741 | 43873 | 48237 | | 2025/04/10 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5509.00 | 1.860 | 60899 | 65270 | | 2025/04/10 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5578.20 | 2.334 | 222566 | 174420 | | 2025/04/10 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.04 | - 0.005 | 84854 | 188699 | | 2025/04/10 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.50 | 0.066 | 69578 | 180190 | | 2025/04/10 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.87 | - 0.241 | 131204 | 102587 | | 2025/04/10 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.70 | 0.029 | 43868 | 112006 | [9]

4 月 11 日辽宁现货 14.1-14.6 元/公斤，较上日涨 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.4- 15.1 元/公斤，较上日涨 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.2-14.6 元/公斤，较上日稳 定；广东 15.3-15.8 元/公斤，较上日稳定，今日早间猪价北涨南稳定。4 月 生猪供应增加，钢联数据 4 月重点省份养殖企业生猪计划出栏量环比增 3.25%，且生猪体重偏高，目前肥标价差收缩，前期压栏以及二育养殖户出 栏意愿增强，而终端消费增量有限，屠企大多亏损，猪价上方承压。但行业 有利润，规模企业多控重出栏，且肥标价差仍为正，养殖端惜售、二次育肥 逢低进场仍存以及屠宰企业也会考虑冻品入库，均支撑价格，短期猪价在 14 元/公斤附近震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二育和屠宰冻品入库情况。 中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情 平稳情况下，4-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据和存栏结构，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，2 月中大猪存栏占比增长，二季度出栏压力 仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下，猪价下 跌风险加剧，关注二育介入 ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 黄尚海 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 棉纺团队 研究员： ◆ 棉花：承压下行 洪润霞 国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放， 大约释放 60%，未点价 40%，资源集中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散 贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资 源相对充裕，外盘相对弱些，外盘 CFTC 持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5 万多万多手，22.68 吨/手），产业是净多头（5 万多手），未点价，想 接货，到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双 方会平仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消费难以有增量，造成内卷， 利润越来少，限制棉花涨幅。对等关税政策调整，除了中国，美国宣布 对大部分国家暂停 90 天关税，并且在此期间大幅降低"对等关税"至 10%，目前中美博弈进入激烈阶段，面对出口严峻的形势，认为 4 月开 始进入压力冲击阶段，二季度不乐观。到了下半年，我们要面对几个变 数，一是新疆喀什等地区开发的盐碱地，大约 200 万亩，只能种植棉 花，其他种植作物不挣钱，会改种棉花，新疆可能增面积达 10%，新 ...