能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 4 月 14 日 PVC 主力 05 合约收盘 4951 元/吨（+21），常州市场价 4840 元/吨（+20），主力基差-111 元/吨（-1），广州市场价 4940 元/吨（+20）， 杭州市场价 4900 元/吨（+60）；兰炭中料 675（0）元/吨，乌海电石 2550 （-100）元/吨，乙烯 7100（0）元/吨。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下 持续低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比小（12% 左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位，库 存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽松格局，偏 空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多，出口以价换量持稳状态，内需季节性 恢复，基本面驱动有限，宏观主导。经过上周贸易战激烈期后，当前宏 观悲观情绪有所缓解，PVC 估值偏低，盘面存弱反弹。重点关注关税谈 判进展、国内刺激政策力度。基本面关注出口和检修力度。若国内刺激 政策超预期，或有一定支撑。若贸易摩擦恶化、经济预期继续恶化，盘 面进一步承压。 ◆ 烧碱： 4 月 14 日烧碱主力 SH05 合约收 2401 元/吨（ ...

4 月 15 日山东德州报价 3.35 元/斤，较上日涨 0.1 元/斤；北京报价 3.66 元/斤，较上日涨 0.11 元/斤。短期节后补货需求支撑蛋价止跌反弹，不过 4 月换羽鸡开产及前期补苗开产陆续增多，养殖端惜淘，鸡蛋供应较为充足， 叠加气温偏高不利鸡蛋保存，或抑制蛋价上涨幅度，关注渠道采购积极性。 长期来看，高养殖利润驱动 24 年 12 月-25 年 2 月补栏积极性高，对应二 季度新开产蛋鸡较多，供应持续增加，不过在鸡苗供应偏紧、鸡龄结构偏老 背景下，需要关注陷入亏损后老鸡淘汰出清对阶段性供应的影响，整体高补 苗量下，下半年供应预计维持增势。当前盘面 05 几乎平水现货，短期现货 涨幅或受限，谨慎追涨，等待现货指引；中长期供应压力增加，远月估值承 压，关注近端淘汰及原料成本波动扰动。策略上 05 二次限仓，波动加剧， 谨慎追高，关注 3150-3170 压力；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待，关注饲料端及 淘汰扰动。关注淘鸡及换羽开产、各环节库存。（数据来源：蛋 e 网、卓创 资讯） 饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 4 月 15 日辽宁现货 14.6-15.3 元/公斤，较上日稳定；河南 14. ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton is under pressure to decline. Domestic cotton supply and demand are basically sufficient but may be slightly tight. The sales pressure of Xinjiang ginning mills has been released by about 60%, and 40% remains unpriced. Resources are concentrated in a few major traders. The domestic cotton industry has over - capacity, limiting cotton price increases. The tariff policy adjustment and the Sino - US trade war have a negative impact on cotton prices in the short - to - medium term. In the second half of the year, potential cotton production increases in Xinjiang and Brazil are also bearish factors [1]. - PTA is under pressure to decline. The cost - end crude oil provides poor support, production is decreasing, and demand growth is limited due to factors such as polyester production cuts and poor export orders, so the price may continue to fall [4]. - Ethylene glycol is in a range - bound consolidation. The low international crude oil price provides poor cost support, but the expected reduction in imports and the current good polyester start - up rate support the price, and it is expected to oscillate between 4250 - 4350 [4]. - Short - fiber is in a range - bound and weakening trend. Weak raw material prices and expected decline in terminal textile demand make it difficult for the short - fiber market to have positive changes in the short term [5]. - Sugar is in a range - bound adjustment. The international sugar market has short - term supply tightness, and the domestic sugar market is affected by multiple factors such as import data, sales progress, and macro - environment changes. It is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern, and the price may be boosted in the future with increased demand [6]. - Apples are in a range - bound and strengthening trend. The overall inventory of apples is decreasing, the sales are good, and the price is expected to strengthen, but macro - risks need to be monitored [7]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Macro Key Information - In the first quarter of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports reached 10.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. Exports were 6.13 trillion yuan, up 6.9%, and imports were 4.17 trillion yuan, down 6% year - on - year. The month - on - month import and export growth rate showed a rising trend [8]. Fundamental Information Tracking of Each Variety PTA - As of April 7, the spot price of PTA in the East China market declined. The cost and demand expectations are weak due to the tariff policy. The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate reached 80.48% last week, showing an upward trend [10][12]. Cotton - On April 14, the China Cotton Price Index was 14293 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the 2024/25 season, India's cotton production decreased, imports increased, and exports decreased. The end - of - period inventory decreased year - on - year [11]. Ethylene Glycol - China's total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 66.01%, with an increase of 0.31% month - on - month. The weekly output was 39.69 million tons, showing an upward trend [13]. Short - fiber - As of April 3, the domestic short - fiber weekly output was 15.81 million tons, a decrease of 0.19 million tons month - on - month. The cost was in a weak oscillation, and the profit was slightly repaired [13]. Sugar - It is expected that in the second half of March, the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil will decrease year - on - year. Ukraine's sugar imports and exports from January to March 2025 decreased compared with the same period in 2024. The Meng'a Sugar Factory completed its 2024/25 crushing season [13]. Apples - As of April 9, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 398.63 million tons, a decrease of 38.90 million tons from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong and Shaanxi is at a low level in recent years [14]. Important Data Tracking of Each Variety - No specific data content provided, only figure descriptions such as cotton price trends, PTA futures price trends, etc.

报告要点 在 A 股市场三十余年的发展历程中，底部震荡行情始终牵动着投 资者的神经。 本文将以四个标志性历史阶段为观察样本——2012 年 "四万亿" 刺激政策退出引发的估值重构、2015 年极端波动引发的熔断机制实 践、2018 年全球经贸格局重塑带来的系统性冲击，以及 2020 年突发 公共卫生事件引发的市场应激反应，深入解析股指期货在不同压力测 试场景中的价格传导机制与风险对冲功能表现。 2025 年 4 月 7 日全球金融市场受 "对等关税"政策冲击，当日 四大股指期货主力合约呈现深度贴水状态，其中中证 500 和中证 1000 期货合约贴水幅度尤为显著。4 月 10 日后市场情绪出现边际修 复，四大期货合约贴水幅度收窄。另一方面，四大股指期货成交量及 持仓量同期并未显著改善，叠加从技术形态上来说四大股指期货向上 补缺口动能稍显不足，市场短期震荡概率较大，建议关注短期市场回 调的套利机会。 2025-4-14 公司资质 市场底部时期股指期货策略 金融期货 | 专题报告 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融衍生品团队 研究员： 彭博 咨询电话：027-657771 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding the industry investment ratings is provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of black - related products are mainly influenced by tariff games, showing a generally weak - running trend. For different products, the market situations and investment strategies vary [4][34][60][108]. - For rebar, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading due to factors such as tariff impacts on exports and insufficient peak - season demand [4][5]. - For hot - rolled coils, the price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Short - term trading is recommended as the supply - demand relationship is in adjustment, affected by international games and domestic policies [34][35]. - For coking coal and coke, the coking coal price may be under pressure to oscillate, and the coke market shows a weak supply - demand balance. A neutral wait - and - see approach is recommended [60]. - For iron ore, considering the current situation and future expectations, it is expected to have a small rebound or maintain an oscillating trend in the near term, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is suggested [108]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see or short - term trading. The price is expected to oscillate weakly due to tariff games, low probability of large - scale domestic stimulus policies in the short term, and potential peak demand [4][5]. - **Market Review**: The spot price first decreased and then increased, with the Hangzhou third - grade rebar at 3170 yuan/ton last Friday, down 70 yuan/ton from before the holiday. The futures price opened lower and oscillated weakly, with the rebar 05 contract at 3050 yuan/ton, down 114 yuan/ton from before the holiday. The basis strengthened, with the rebar 05 contract basis at 120 yuan [15]. - **Steel Mill Profits**: The immediate profit of steel mills declined slightly. The long - process profit was about 120 yuan/ton in East China, and the short - process flat - electricity profit was about - 118 yuan/ton. The profitability of 247 sample steel mills was 53.68% (- 1.73%) [19]. - **Futures Valuation**: The rebar futures price dropped near the electric - furnace valley - electricity cost, higher than the long - process cost, with a static valuation at a moderately low level [21]. - **Supply - Demand Pattern**: Last week, the rebar production increased by 3.72 tons to 232.37 tons, the apparent demand increased by 2.99 tons to 252.68 tons, and the inventory decreased by 20.31 tons to 777.76 tons [29]. 3.2 Hot - Rolled Coils - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term trading. The price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation as the supply - demand relationship is in adjustment, affected by international games and domestic policies [34][35]. - **Valuation**: The spot price increased, with the Shanghai hot - rolled coil 4.75 at 3250 yuan/t last Friday, down 100 yuan/t from the previous week. The futures price oscillated strongly, with the hot - rolled coil 10 contract at 3242 yuan/t, down 118 yuan/t from the previous week. The basis strengthened by 18 yuan, with the hot - rolled coil 10 contract basis at 28 yuan. The cost decreased, and the profit remained stable, with the steel - union hot - rolled coil profit at about - 8 yuan/t (18 yuan/t), and the profitability of 247 sample steel mills at 53.68% (- 1.73%) [39][40]. - **Drivers**: The output of five major steel products increased, while the hot - rolled coil output decreased. The demand gradually weakened, with the steel - union hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreasing. The inventory showed continuous destocking, but there was still pressure on factory inventory accumulation [44][46][52]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Strategy**: Neutral wait - and - see. For coking coal, the short - term price may be under pressure to oscillate. For coke, the market shows a weak supply - demand balance, and it is difficult for price increases to be implemented in the short term [60]. - **Coking Coal**: The domestic coking coal spot price decreased, and the overseas price also showed a downward trend. The basis widened, and the production in major producing areas gradually recovered. The upstream inventory continued to be destocked. The total inventory was 2727.22 million tons (+ 12.80), with the mine inventory at 335.50 million tons (- 4.20), the downstream inventory at 1745.32 million tons (+ 24.18), and the 16 - port inventory at 646.40 million tons (- 7.18) [66][71][83]. - **Coke**: The spot price stabilized. The basis converged. The daily average pig - iron output increased significantly, and the overall inventory fluctuated little. The total inventory was 1052.59 million tons (+ 0.97), with the full - sample coking plant inventory at 107.30 tons (- 10.17), the downstream steel - mill inventory at 667.99 tons (- 4.88), and the 18 - port inventory at 277.30 million tons (+ 16.02) [87][90][102]. 3.4 Iron Ore - **Investment Strategy**: Short on rebounds. The price is expected to have a small rebound or maintain an oscillating trend in the near term, entering a stage of expected increased supply and decreased demand in the future [108]. - **Market Review**: The spot price decreased, with the Qingdao Port's various - grade iron ore discount - to - futures prices down. The futures price also decreased, with the iron ore 09 contract at 708 yuan/ton last Friday, down 35.5 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 5 - 9 spread widened [109][124]. - **Supply**: Domestically, the production increased, with the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises at 63.38%, up 0.61%, the daily average iron - concentrate output at 49.49 million tons, up 0.48, and the inventory at 109.43 million tons, up 2.5. Overseas, the Australian shipment decreased, with the total Australian and Brazilian iron - ore shipment at 2393.1 million tons, down 254.7 million tons week - on - week [130][136]. - **Port Situation**: The arrival volume decreased, the number of ships in port increased, and the dredging volume remained at a high level. The port inventory decreased, with the 45 - port iron - ore inventory at 14341.02 million tons, down 127.39 million tons week - on - week [141][142]. - **Steel - Mill Demand**: The pig - iron output has not reached its peak. The profitability of 247 steel enterprises was 53.25%, unchanged week - on - week. The daily average pig - iron output was 236.26 million tons, up 5.67 million tons week - on - week. The furnace - charge ratio was sinter ore 73.73%, pellet ore 14.16%, and lump ore 12.11% [151].

2025-04-14 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 关税战影响边际减弱 有色金属急挫后宽幅震荡 有色金属基础周报 走势状态 行情观点 操作建议 | 美国对等关税政策超预期，中国随之全面反制，美挑起的关税战加大了全球经济衰退的概率，各类资产遭受无差别抛售，重要大宗商品价格短期重 | 挫。随着中美关税已加无可加，边际影响减弱以及特朗普政策的反复，铜价大幅反弹。基本面上，价格回落，下游企业逢低补库积极，订单增长明 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 显，国内库存下降表现较为明显。铜精矿供应也依旧紧张，现货TC继续在负值区间下探，再生铜采购难度也在加大，但副产品价格高位，国内产 | 急挫后反弹 | 铜 | 区间交易 | 出的预期依然较高。不过卫星监测数据显示，3月全球铜冶炼活动大幅下降，平均有12.6%的 ...

股指或震荡运行，国债短 期看好 2025-04-14 重点数据跟踪 02 01 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：彭 博 执业编号：F3090600 投资咨询号：Z0021839 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 目 录 金融期货策略建议 01 金融期货策略建议 01 股指策略建议 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 股指走势回顾：股指周涨幅均为负数。其中，中证1000主力跌5.96%，上证50主力跌2.35%，沪深 300主力跌3.92%，中证500主力跌4.58%。 核心观点：周五市场冲高回落。市场流动性恢复，护盘资金今天没有太发力，即使面对前一晚川普针对 性的言论，市场也没有太多恐慌，但是在上下方同时出现缺口的情况，大概率先回补下方缺口形成双重 底部。代表大盘股的上证50ETF是震荡上涨，收在分时图均线上方，买方能量与卖方能量的3.5倍；代 表小盘股的中证1000也是震荡上涨，收在分时图均线下方，卖方能量与买方能量的5.5倍。尽管周末传 出"豁免"新闻，并不代表风险已经过去。特朗普 ...

长江期货尿素&甲醇周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 投资咨询号：Z0015756 张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2025-04-14 01 尿素：复合肥需求仍有支撑 目 录 02 甲醇：下有低库存支撑 上有需求压制 01 核心观点总结 1 市场变化：受关税政策和市场情绪影响，甲醇盘面价格周初宽幅下行，后随关税政策和市场情绪变化，逐步向上 恢复。4月11日甲醇主力合约收盘价2392元/吨，较上周下调62元/吨。现货价格偏弱运行，江苏甲醇市场价格 2480元/吨，较上周下调68元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端甲醇装置产能利用率88.24%，较上周提升2.03个百分点，周度产量197万吨，供应维持历史 较高水平。成本端煤炭供应量略有缩减，加上下游买货情绪好转，动力煤市场价格窄幅上调，煤制甲醇成本窄幅 增加。需求端甲醇制烯烃开工率87.05%，较上周下调4.13个人百分点。目前国内烯烃行业开工率仍维持中高水平， 周内西北部分烯烃厂甲醇询价外采，主力下游需 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The US announced a 90 - day tariff suspension on most countries, increasing market uncertainty. The non - farm payrolls in March were significantly higher than expected, and the US CPI data in March was lower than expected, leading to a strong rise in gold prices. The US tariff policy has raised market concerns, increasing the expectation of an economic hard landing and the predicted number of interest rate cuts within the year. The Fed maintains a hawkish stance, but the market expects the number of Fed interest rate cuts to increase to 4 times. Central bank gold - buying demand and risk - aversion sentiment support precious metal prices. The market is dominated by recession expectations, and prices are expected to be strong in the near term. It is recommended to operate cautiously and wait for price pull - backs to build positions. [10] Summary by Directory 01 - Market Review - The US introduced a reciprocal tariff policy, increasing market uncertainty and weakening the US dollar index. The US March CPI data was lower than expected. As of last Friday, the price of US gold closed at $3255 per ounce, up 6.5% within the week, with an upper resistance level of $3340 and a lower support level of $3180. The price of US silver rebounded, with a weekly increase of 9%, closing at $32.2 per ounce, with a lower support level of $30.5 and an upper resistance level of $34. [6][9] 02 - Weekly View - The US tariff policy has increased market uncertainty. The non - farm payrolls in March were high, and the CPI was low, driving up gold prices. Market concerns about an economic hard landing have increased, and the expected number of interest rate cuts within the year has risen. The Fed maintains a hawkish stance, but the market predicts more interest rate cuts. The ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March. Central bank gold - buying demand and risk - aversion sentiment support precious metal prices. Prices are expected to be strong in the near term. It is advisable to wait for price pull - backs to build positions, with the reference operating range of SHFE gold contract 06 being 750 - 785 and SHFE silver contract 06 being 7700 - 8500. It is recommended to pay attention to the US March retail sales data to be released on Wednesday. [10][11] 03 - Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The content mainly presents various macroeconomic indicator charts, including real interest rates, exchange rates, bond yields, gold - silver ratio, Fed balance sheet, and WTI crude oil futures prices, but no specific data analysis is provided. [14][15][16] 04 - Important Economic Data of the Week - The US March CPI annual rate unadjusted was 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 2.8%. The US March PPI annual rate was 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.2%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending April 5 was 22.3 million, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 21.9 million. The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in April was 50.8, lower than the expected 54.5 and the previous value of 57. [24] 05 - Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - In March, US consumer prices unexpectedly decreased due to lower gasoline and used - vehicle prices. After the inflation data was released, the CME FedWatch Tool showed that the Fed would cut interest rates in June and by 100 basis points within the year. Some Fed officials believe that the tariff suspension may temporarily relieve market pressure, but economic risks remain. On April 11, certain products were removed from the "reciprocal tariff" list. [25] 06 - Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 15,419.01 kg to 1,386,468.50 kg, and the SHFE gold inventory increased by 3 kg to 15,678 kg. The COMEX silver inventory increased by 230,118.71 kg to 15,473,229.03 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 194,823 kg to 992,117 kg. [12][29] 07 - Fund Holdings - As of April 8, the CFTC speculative fund net long position in gold was 203,102 contracts, a decrease of 47,780 contracts from last week. The CFTC speculative fund net long position in silver was 42,018 contracts, a decrease of 12,361 contracts from last week. [12][34] 08 - Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday (April 16) at 20:30, the US March retail sales month - on - month rate will be released. On Thursday (April 17) at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending April 12 will be released. [36]

长江期货粕类油脂周报 2025-04-14 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 联 系 人：姚 杨 执业编号:F03113968 01 02 油脂：关税政策有缓和迹象，期价止跌反 弹 豆粕：供应后移 &政策扰动，价格震荡运行 目 录 01 豆粕：供应后移&政策扰动，价格震荡运 行 01 豆粕：供应后移&政策扰动，价格震荡运行 ◆ 期现端：截至2025年4月11日，美豆07合约报价1053.25分/蒲，周度上涨60.5美分；华东豆粕现货报价3100元/吨，周度上涨70元/吨；连盘豆粕 09合约收盘于3082元/吨，周度上涨43元/吨；基差报价05+200元/吨，周度上涨20元/吨。周度豆粕在供需博弈及政策扰动中维持震荡偏强走势， 短期阶段性豆粕去库以及政策影响驱动豆粕价格偏强运行，但南美丰产与国内后期大量到港压制价格表现。 ◆ 供应端：4月USDA大豆供需报告显示，美豆单产维持至50.7美分/蒲，结转库存下调至3.75亿蒲，符合市场预期。25/26年度美豆种植面积市场预估 在8350万英亩，美豆大豆产量呈现下降趋势。南美方面，巴西收 ...