简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 黑色产业日报 周四，螺纹钢期货价格大幅反弹，杭州中天螺纹钢 3180 元/吨，较前一 日上涨 40 元/吨，05 合约基差 119（-8），特朗普宣布暂停多数国家 90 天关税、提高中国关税税率至 125%，外盘大涨，钢价跟随反弹。就钢材 而言，关税对直接出口影响不大，2024 年中国对美钢材出口量 89 万吨， 仅占出口总量的 0.8%，不过间接影响相对较大，根据 Mysteel 测算，去 年我国钢铁间接出口量达到 1.4 亿吨，其中对美国出口达到 1000 多万 吨，叠加部分转出口也受到影响，因此后期钢材直接与间接出口均会受 到一定冲击。国内除了关税反击以外，是否会出台财政与货币政策需要 进一步观察。短期来看，行情跟随关税政策上下波动，暂时观望为宜。 (数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周四，铁矿期货价格大幅反弹，中国反制关税再加征 50%，市场波动率 提高。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 764 元/湿吨（+20）。普氏 62%指数 98.35 美元/吨（+2.60），月均 100.17 美元/吨。PBF 基差 98 元/吨 （+4）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西铁矿 ...

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 4 月 10 日收盘，沪铜主力 05 合约上涨 3.86%至 75300 元/吨。美 宣布延后大部分经济体的对等关税征收 90 天，给市场带来短期利好，铜 价有所回升。现货市场，铜价大幅走低，刺激下游消费，下游低价入市 采购情绪回升，现货价格支撑明显，升贴水升水企稳为主，不过多数下 游仍维持谨慎态度，后续消费有进一步释放的可能，现货库存或将持续 去库。铜精矿现货 TC 维持负值且再度扩大，矿供应风波尚未解除，但炼 厂得益于副产品收益高位，近期产量继续保持高位。二季度国内炼厂检 修或致产量下滑，叠加原料端与库存减少，虽然对等关税风波风险情绪 较此前略微缓解，但中美摩擦升级，或令铜价波动风险加剧。 ◆ 铝： 截至 4 月 10 日收盘，沪铝主力 05 合约上涨 1.85%至 19805 元/吨。整 体矿端供应逐步好转、价格逐步下行。氧化铝运行产能周度环比下降 25 万吨至 9105 万吨，氧化铝库存周度环比增加 2 万吨至 339 万吨。氧化 铝厂检修减产继续增加，当前减产产能已达 200 万吨，预计 4 月中旬减 产规模可能达到 500 万吨左右。山东某 150 万吨氢氧 ...

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： ◆ 烧碱： 4 月 10 日烧碱主力 SH05 合约收 2355 元/吨（0），山东市场主流价 780 元/吨（-25），折百 2438 元/吨（-78），液氯山东 100 元/吨（-50）。 4 月 10 日开始，山东地区某氧化铝厂家采购 32%离子膜碱价格下调 25 元 /吨，执行出厂 740 元/（折百 2312 元/吨）。截至 20250403，隆众资讯 统计全国 20 万吨及以上固定液碱样本企业厂库库存 47.77 万吨(湿吨)， 环比下跌 2.99%，同比上调 12.07%。目前看利润中性、库存偏高，后期 检修装置存恢复预期，氧化铝利润走弱，边际产能减产增多，非铝需求 弹性不足。后期出口签单或有改善，后期液氯或存跌价预期，盘面下行 亦偏谨慎，谨慎偏弱。继续关注魏桥送货量，库存去化情况。中期关注 氧化铝投产开工和出口情况，关注 6-8 月检修规模和持续性。 ◆ 橡胶： 4 月 10 日橡胶系 BR、NR、RU 均偏强运行，主要由于 4 月 10 日凌晨关税 暂停，宏观风险偏好有提升，油价上涨。后面关注关税进一步演绎情况。 基本面目前开割进行中、国内港口现货流通 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term bullish on bonds [3] Core Views - For stock indices, the US has postponed some tariffs and announced a 90 - day tariff suspension for some countries. The EU has voted to impose a 25% tariff counter - measure on the US, mainly targeting US steel and aluminum tariffs. China has imposed an additional 50% tariff on all imported goods from the US and included 12 US entities in the export control list. Although the offshore RMB has risen sharply, the tariff war competition is not over, and there will be more subsequent games. Stock indices may fluctuate [1]. - For treasury bonds, rumors about a press conference on Friday led to a surge in market expectations of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, causing treasury bond futures to rise sharply. However, the rumors were later refuted, and the futures prices dropped. Overall, the tariff game is still volatile, and the capital market volatility remains high. Before the risk premium is fully priced, the bond market will maintain high volatility and may show a two - way wide - range shock pattern [2]. Market Review Stock Indices - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 2.13%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 1.86%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 2.98%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 3.02% [4]. Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year main contract rose 0.09%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.12%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.16%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.09% [6]. Technical Analysis Stock Indices - The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market is oscillating weakly [5]. Treasury Bonds - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract is oscillating strongly [7]. Strategy Suggestions - Stock indices are expected to oscillate [1] - Short - term bullish on treasury bonds [3] Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/09 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3614.00 | 2.13 | 115307 | 150590 | | 2025/04/09 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2564.20 | 1.86 | 65219 | 58795 | | 2025/04/09 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5387.20 | 2.98 | 89534 | 77524 | | 2025/04/09 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5429.60 | 3.02 | 307215 | 184548 | | 2025/04/09 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.04 | 0.09 | 94916 | 192698 | | 2025/04/09 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.43 | 0.12 | 71227 | 176560 | | 2025/04/09 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 120.33 | 0.16 | 150577 | 104799 | | 2025/04/09 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.68 | 0.09 | 57082 | 108388 | [9]

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周三，螺纹钢期货价格探底回升，杭州中天螺纹钢 3140 元/吨，较前一 日下跌 20 元/吨，05 合约基差 127（+6），美国提高对等关税至 84%， 国内进行反制，对所有美国进口商品再加征 50%关税。就钢材而言，关 税对直接出口影响不大，2024 年中国对美钢材出口量 89 万吨，仅占出 口总量的 0.8%，不过间接影响相对较大，根据 Mysteel 测算，去年我国 钢铁间接出口量达到 1.4 亿吨，其中对美国出口达到 1000 多万吨，叠加 部分转出口也受到影响，因此后期钢材直接与间接出口均会受到一定冲 击。国内除了关税反击以外，是否会出台财政与货币政策需要进一步观 察。短期来看，一方面市场情绪受到冲击，另一方面钢材实际需求承压， 预计钢价震荡偏弱运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周三，铁矿期货价格探底回升，中国反制关税再加征 50%，市场波动率 提高。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 747 元/湿吨（-21）。普氏 62%指数 95.75 美元/吨（+0.10），月均 100.43 美元/吨。PBF 基差 94 元/吨（- 2）。供 ...

产业服务总部 有色金属团队 2025-04-10 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 4 月 9 日收盘，沪铜主力 05 合约下跌 1.78%至 72130 元/吨。美 国推出对等关税政策，加征程度超预期，美国所有进口商品的实际关税 税率将从 2024 年年底的 2.3%升至 26%左右，达到 131 年来的最高水 平。其中今年对中国加征的关税就达到 54%若加上 2018 年美国对中国 加征的关税水平，已经显著超过 70%.。美国挑起的关税战加大了全球经 济衰退的概率，市场对美国经济将进入袁退的预期升温，市场恐慌情绪 周末二次发酵引发全球各类资产遭受无差别抛售，主要经济体股市，以 及重要大宗商品价格短期重挫。对冲基金为避免组合头寸爆仓大幅抛售 黄金等高位头寸，铜价也同样深度回撤。关税引发衰退的担忧，但铜长 期的需求逻辑仍在，铜矿及原料供应维持紧张，炼厂仍面临较大的原料 保供和保本压力，短期基本面仍有韧性，铜跌至 73000 一线后或将整固 回稳。不过关税扰动风险仍未完全释放，贸易战有螺旋加码的可能，后 续对经济层面的冲击仍 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are expected to oscillate; Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate upward [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Rebar - temporary wait - and - see; Iron ore - oscillate weakly; Coking coal and coke - oscillate [1][5][6] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper - consider moderately building long positions after market panic fully subsides; Aluminum - moderately go long at low prices; Nickel - suggest waiting or shorting on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - build long positions at low prices after sufficient price pull - back; Silver - range trading [1][11][13] - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC - oscillate; Soda ash - hold short positions in call options; Caustic soda - oscillate; Rubber - oscillate; Urea - oscillate; Methanol - oscillate [1][20][21] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - oscillate weakly; Apple - oscillate strongly; PTA - oscillate weakly [1][26][27] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Live pigs - oscillate weakly; Eggs - near - month contracts are strongly supported, far - month contracts are bearish on rallies; Corn - go long at low prices; Soybean meal - weak in the near - term, strong in the long - term; Oils and fats - weakly oscillate [1][30][32] 2. Core Views - The global market is affected by the US tariff policy, with high volatility and uncertainty. The tariff war between the US and other countries has a significant impact on various asset prices, and the subsequent game is still intense [5][11][18] - Different commodities have different supply - demand fundamentals and price trends. Some are affected by supply - side factors such as production capacity and inventory, while others are influenced by demand - side factors such as consumption and export [6][20][31] - The bond market is affected by factors such as the expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the risk premium has not been fully priced, resulting in high volatility [5] 3. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - **Index futures**: Affected by the tariff war, although the offshore RMB has risen sharply, the game is still ongoing, and the index futures may oscillate [5] - **Treasury bonds**: Market expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts have risen and then fallen. The tariff game is volatile, and the bond market may show a two - way wide - range oscillation pattern [5] Black building materials - **Rebar**: The price is affected by tariff policies. Although direct exports to the US are small, indirect exports are impacted. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [6] - **Iron ore**: Supply is strong, and the growth of molten iron is expected to slow down. Affected by foreign tariff policies and domestic reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut expectations, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7] - **Coking coal and coke**: The coking coal market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, but price upward resistance increases. The coke market is in a stalemate between policy negatives and industrial games, and price fluctuations intensify [8][9] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The tariff war increases the probability of a global economic recession, causing copper prices to decline. However, the long - term demand logic remains, and the short - term fundamentals are still resilient [11] - **Aluminum**: The overall supply of the ore end is improving, and the demand of downstream processing enterprises is weakening. It is recommended to strengthen observation and pay attention to policy changes [13] - **Nickel**: Affected by policies and supply - demand factors, the nickel price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait or conduct range trading [15][16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices [17] - **Gold and silver**: Affected by the US tariff policy, the market has a strong expectation of economic recession, and the prices have pulled back. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices after sufficient pull - backs [18][19] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The long - term demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. The current situation is difficult to change. It mainly follows the market fluctuations and is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [20] - **Caustic soda**: The profit is neutral, the inventory is high, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [21] - **Rubber**: The fundamental situation is weak, but affected by the suspension of tariffs and the rise of oil prices, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [22] - **Urea**: The supply is abundant, the demand is relatively stable, and the inventory is in the process of seasonal destocking. It is recommended for range trading [24][25] - **Methanol**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is relatively stable, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate widely [25][26] - **Soda ash**: The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in call options [26] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton**: The market consumption is not strong, but the acceptance of low prices is high, and it is expected to continue to oscillate [27] - **Apple**: The inventory is low, the sales are good, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly, but macro risks need to be noted [27] - **PTA**: Although the supply - demand situation is good, the price is under pressure due to cost and consumption factors, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support level [29] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Live pigs**: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the consumption is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short on rallies [30][31] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the long - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to wait and see for near - month contracts and be bearish on far - month contracts [32] - **Corn**: The short - term spot price has support, and the long - term supply - demand is tightening, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices [33] - **Soybean meal**: The short - term price is affected by sentiment and supply - demand, and the long - term price is expected to rise. It is recommended to short near - term contracts on rallies and go long on the far - term contract [34][35] - **Oils and fats**: Affected by the US tariff policy and supply - demand factors, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and may first fall and then rise in the long term [36][38]

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：承压下行 国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放， 大约释放 60%，未点价 40%，资源集中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散 贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资 源相对充裕，外盘相对弱些，外盘 CFTC 持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5 万多万多手，22.68 吨/手），产业是净多头（5 万多手），未点价，想 接货，到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双 方会平仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消费难以有增量，造成内卷， 利润越来少，限制棉花涨幅。对等关税政策调整，除了中国，美国宣布 对大部分国家暂停 90 天关税，并且在此期间大幅降低"对等关税"至 10%，目前中美博弈进入激烈阶段，面对出口严峻的形势，认为 4 月开 始进入压力冲击阶段，二季度不乐观。到了下半年，我们要面对几个变 数，一是新疆喀什等地区开发的盐碱地，大约 200 万亩，只能种植棉 花，其他种植作物不挣钱，会改种棉花，新疆可能增面积达 10%，新 年度棉花丰产可能到 720-750 万吨，这个是比较利空的，巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，播种进度 9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term price of live pigs will fluctuate around 14 yuan/kg, but in the medium - to - long - term, due to increased supply and weak demand, the risk of price decline intensifies. Egg prices are under pressure in the short - term, and the supply will continue to increase in the long - term. For oils, they may rise slightly in the short - term and decline in the second quarter, then rebound in the third quarter. The short - term price of soybean meal is supported, but the 05 and 07 contracts have limited upside space, while the 09 contract is bullish. Corn prices are expected to be stable with an upward trend, with limited upside space in the long - term [1][2][5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - On April 10, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were stable. In April, the supply of live pigs increased, with the planned slaughter volume of key provincial breeding enterprises up 3.25% month - on - month. The short - term price will fluctuate around 14 yuan/kg. In the medium - to - long - term, from April to September 2024, the supply will increase, and the price decline risk intensifies. The strategy is to sell short on rebounds, and sell out - of - the - money call options for 07 and 09 contracts [1]. Eggs - On April 10, the price in Shandong Dezhou was stable, while the price in Beijing increased. In April, the supply pressure is large, but the supply - demand pattern has marginally improved. In the long - term, the supply will continue to increase in the second quarter and the upward trend in the second half of the year may be hard to reverse. For the 05 contract, non - holders should be cautious about shorting, and the far - month contracts are under pressure [2]. Oils Palm Oil - On April 9, the Malaysian palm oil futures price fell. The export in March increased slightly, but the production increased more, and the inventory is expected to rise. The short - term price may rebound slightly, and the 06 contract should focus on the 4000 support level. In the long - term, the price is likely to decline [5]. Soybean Oil - Although the US may increase biodiesel blending, the overall fundamentals are bearish. The short - term price of US soybeans is weak, and the domestic soybean oil price may be boosted in the short - term. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is large, and the price may first fall and then rise in the long - term [6]. Rapeseed Oil - The export of Canadian rapeseed is affected. The domestic supply pressure is large in April, but the inventory may start to decline in May. In the long - term, the price is expected to stop falling and rebound [7]. - Overall, domestic oils may rise slightly in the short - term, with rapeseed oil being the strongest, followed by soybean oil and palm oil. In the long - term, they may decline in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. The strategy is to wait and see for the 09 contracts and focus on the spread - widening strategy of the 09 rapeseed - palm oil spread [8]. Soybean Meal - On April 9, the US soybean futures price rose. The short - term price of domestic soybean meal is supported, but the 05 and 07 contracts have limited upside space due to large supply from April to July. The 09 contract is bullish in the long - term. The strategy is to be cautious about chasing long for 05 and 07 contracts, and go long on the 09 contract [8]. Corn - On April 9, the price in Jinzhou Port was stable, while the price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao decreased. The short - term price has support, and in the long - term, the supply - demand is tightening, but the upside space is limited. The strategy is to be bullish on the overall trend, buy on dips for the 05 contract, and focus on the 5 - 9 and 5 - 7 positive spreads [9][10]. Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the prices and daily changes of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on different trading days [11].

◆ 烧碱： 能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 4 月 9 日 PVC 主力 05 合约收盘 4861 元/吨（-46），常州市场价 4750 元 /吨（-50），主力基差-111 元/吨（-4），广州市场价 4840 元/吨（-70）， 杭州市场价 4780 元/吨（-60）；兰炭中料 675（0）元/吨，乌海电石 2700 （0）元/吨，乙烯 7100（0）元/吨。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续 低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比小（12% 左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位，库 存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽松格局，偏 空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多同比偏少，出口以价换量持稳状态，内 需季节性恢复；估值中性，当前 PVC 难改供需疲软格局，基本面驱动有 限。交易宏观权重在加大，主要跟随大盘波动，4 月 10 日凌晨关税暂停， 宏观风险偏好有提升，油价上涨，今日盘面预计震荡偏强。宏观面，一 是关注关税战的进一步发展情况，包括其他国家是否对华加征关税。二 是海外经济预期，三是关注国内刺激政策力度，降准降息预期等。基本 面关注出 ...