2025年05月09日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡运行。基本面：英美就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，细节待敲定，美方保留 | 10%基 | | | | 准关税，美元上涨，风险偏好提振。供应端铜矿紧张格局延续，华东华南平水铜现货升水 210 元和 140 | | 元， | | 铜 | 国内库存周度去化 0.8 万吨，月差结构继续走强。交易策略：短期以震荡思路对待。风险提示：全球需求不及 | | | | | 预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | 市场表现：昨日锌 2506 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.49%，收于 22,565 元/吨。国内 0-3 月差 645 元/吨 | Back， | | | | 海外 0-3 月差 36.9 美元/吨 Con 结构，华南、华东对 2506 合约 500 元/吨升水，2506 合约 500 | 元/吨升水。 | | | | 社会库存 5 月 8 日 8.33 万吨，较 5 月 6 日去库 0.08 万吨 | | | | | 基本面：供应端，矿加工费上涨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to stabilize from four perspectives, and it is recommended to buy index futures on dips. Short-term IC and IM have more elasticity, while medium- and long-term IH and IF are more attractive in terms of valuation [4]. - The short-term funds are neutral. After the unexpected implementation of US tariffs, there are signs of easing. Although global trade uncertainties still exist, government bonds have gradually returned to pricing based on economic fundamentals. In the short term, government bond prices are expected to fluctuate; in the long term, the timing and intensity of fiscal/monetary policies will affect the price trend of government bond futures [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Economic Data - High-frequency data shows that the recent infrastructure boom has slightly increased, while the import and export boom has decreased [7]. (2) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On May 7th, the four major A-share stock indexes all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8% to close at 3342.67 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.22% to close at 10104.13 points; the ChiNext Index rose 0.51% to close at 1996.51 points; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 0.36% to close at 1030.19 points. The market turnover was 15,051 billion yuan, an increase of 140.6 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - The basis and basis annualized yields of IM, IC, IF, and IH next-month contracts are 156.29, 130.09, 46.63, and 24.3 points, and -19.98%, -17.67%, -9.51%, and -7.11% respectively. The three-year historical quantiles are 3%, 2%, 6%, and 14% respectively. The futures-spot price difference has been repaired but is still at a low level [3]. (3) Government Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On May 7th, most government bond futures declined. The 2-year government bond futures fell 0.01% to close at 102.31 points; the 5-year government bond futures fell 0.08% to close at 106 points; the 10-year government bond futures fell 0.19% to close at 108.85 points; the 30-year government bond futures fell 0.62% to close at 120.14 points [4]. - In terms of the current bond, the CTD bonds of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond futures have corresponding net basis and IRR. In terms of the money market, the central bank's net withdrawal was 33.53 billion yuan. In the short term, government bond prices are expected to fluctuate; in the long term, the timing and intensity of fiscal/monetary policies will affect the price trend of government bond futures [5].

| 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏弱运行。基本面：昨日国新办会议市场整体冲高回落，有利好落地的意思。美联 储按兵不动，以及鲍威尔重申愿意等前景更明朗再行动，美元指数走强，基本金属承压。供应端，铜矿紧张 | | | 格局延续。华东华南平水铜现货升水 250 元和 170 元成交。伦敦结构 23 美金 back。交易策略：短期以宽幅 | | | 震荡思路对待。风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | 碳 | 2507 64160 元/吨（-1100）。基本面：碳酸锂供应端减量高企。国内碳酸锂周 市场表现：昨日主力 合约收于 | | 酸 | 产量回落但维持高位在 16900 吨，环比-2.81%，4 月 SMM 碳酸锂产量为 73810 实物吨，环比-6.5%，预计 5 | | 锂 | 月产量高企在 75500 实物吨。需求端，国内新能源车 4 月渗透率突破 50%，3 月产销同比新高。海外新能源 | | | 汽车景气度预期分化，欧洲需求或因改变对华电车关税走强，美国需求因加征关税提前释放，后期预期走弱。 | 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | - ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to hold long positions in gold; for silver, it is advisable to sell short on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio when appropriate [1]. - For base metals, different metals have different trading strategies based on their supply - demand fundamentals, such as maintaining a buy - on - dips strategy for copper and zinc, and waiting for downstream restocking for lead [1][2][3]. - In the black industry, the overall situation is relatively balanced, with a wait - and - see strategy recommended, and some specific contract positions need to be adjusted according to market conditions [4]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different trends and trading strategies, such as a bearish view on sugar and a wait - and - see approach for logs [5][6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, most products are expected to be weak in the short - term, and it is recommended to sell short on rebounds, while the overall trend of oil prices is bearish [9][10]. - In the shipping industry, the overall outlook for shipping rates is pessimistic in the context of the trade war, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Overnight, precious metals strengthened with international gold prices rising 2.9%. There are geopolitical events, economic data showing a widened US trade deficit, and changes in inventory. It is recommended to hold long gold positions [1]. - **Silver**: It is recommended to sell short on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio. After the holiday, gold rose while silver was weak, and the gold - silver ratio reached 102 [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price was strong yesterday. With positive news on the Sino - US economic and trade front and a tight supply of copper ore, it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Zinc**: The price of the 2505 contract rose 0.44% yesterday. The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the short - term price has support from low inventory. It is necessary to pay attention to the arrival of imported zinc and inventory changes [2][3]. - **Lead**: The price of the 2505 contract fell 1.07% yesterday. The supply of raw materials is tight, and consumption is weak after the holiday. It is advisable to buy on dips after the price falls [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price hit a new low after the holiday. Supply may increase slightly, and demand is weak. It is recommended to sell short on rebounds [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract fell. Supply is high, and demand has different trends at home and abroad. It is recommended to sell short on the main contract or short the far - month contract [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price hit a new low after the holiday. Supply and demand are both weak, and it is recommended to sell short on the 07 contract's rebounds [3]. - **Tin**: The price was strong yesterday. With positive news on the Sino - US economic and trade front, a short - term range - bound trading strategy is recommended [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2510 contract was flat. Inventory is decreasing, and the overall supply - demand is balanced. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended, and short positions in the coil - rebar spread can be held [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2509 contract was strong. Supply is in line with seasonal patterns, and demand has limited growth space. It is recommended to close previous short positions, and aggressive investors can try to go long [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2509 contract was weak. Supply is relatively loose, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [4]. Agricultural Products Market - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean price fell. Supply is different in the near and far term, and demand is weak. The domestic market is short - term bearish and mid - term follows the international market [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract was strong. Supply is tightening, and demand is increasing. The price is expected to rise [6][7]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract rose slightly. Brazil's new season has a strong start, and the domestic market is expected to follow the decline of raw sugar, with a bearish trading strategy [7]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fell, and the domestic Zhengzhou cotton price rebounded. It is recommended to sell short on rebounds [7]. - **Logs**: The 07 contract rose slightly. Supply is strong, and demand is weak. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The price fell yesterday. Supply is increasing seasonally, and demand is improving. The short - term price is falling, and the mid - term is in a weak stage [7]. - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract continued to fall. Supply is high, and the price is expected to be weak [7][8]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract was range - bound. Supply is increasing, and the price is expected to decline with resistance [8]. Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE**: The main contract fell slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to sell short on rebounds in the short and long term [9]. - **PVC**: The price fell. Supply is increasing, and inventory is falling. It is recommended to hedge after the price returns to a high premium [9]. - **Glass**: The price fell. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure [9]. - **PP**: The main contract fell slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by tariffs. A short - term bearish strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the start - up rate of PDH plants [9][10]. - **Crude Oil**: The price rebounded slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by trade frictions. It is recommended to sell short on rebounds, with a short - term trading range of Brent at $55 - 65 per barrel [10]. - **Styrene**: The price fell slightly. Supply may accumulate inventory, and demand is affected by tariffs. The price is expected to follow the cost and be weak [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The price fell. Supply has maintenance, and demand is affected by glass. The price is expected to fall, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money call options [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price rose. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak except for the alumina industry. The price is expected to stabilize [10][11]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The main contract rose 0.1%. Trade war and geopolitical factors affect supply and demand. The overall outlook for shipping rates is pessimistic, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [11].

金融研究 2025年5月7日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：5 月 6 日，A 股四大股指全线上行，其中上证指数上涨 1.13%，报收 3316.11 点；深成指 上涨 1.84%，报收 10082.34 点；创业板指上涨 1.97%，报收 1986.41 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.39%， 报收 1026.52 点。市场成交 13,644 亿元，较前日增加 1,714 亿元。行业板块方面，计算机(+3.65%)， 通信(+3.59%)，综合(+3.38%)涨幅居前；银行(-0.13%)，食品饮料(+0.35%)，美容护理(+0.43%)跌 幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,959/70/379。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 196、60、-149、-107 亿元，分别变动+164、+99、-78、-184 亿元。 风险提示：美国双边政策不确定性、财政扩张进度不及预期。 市场表现：5 月 6 日，国债期货涨跌不一，其中 2 年期国债期货下跌 0.06%，报收 102.31 点，5 年 期国债期货下跌 0.04%，报收 1 ...

招商评论 铜 相对于国内 4 月 30 日收盘，5 月 2 日收盘 LME 铜价上涨 0.3%。 宏观来看，市场有贸易战缓和预期，全球股票指数节日内表现偏强。美国 PCE 数据符合预期，非农数据强于 预期，美元指数在关键位置继续震荡。但市场对于美元贬值预期较强，亚洲国家和地区货币对美元大幅升值， 市场担忧对美国资产的抛售再度到来。微观来看，铜矿紧张格局延续，周度 TC 在-42.6 美金。国内平水铜成 交升水来到 200 元以上，国内 back950 元，伦敦结构也来到 20 美金 back。伴随全球库存的快速去化，铜价 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 贸易战反复 2025年05月06日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 【市场表现】 | | 金 | 五一小长假海外贵金属市场走弱，以伦敦金为代表的国际金价周四下跌 1.53%，不过随后企稳。 | | 属 | 【消息面】由沙特阿拉伯领导的 OPEC+八国生产商集团周六达成协议，决定在 6 月份再次增产 41.1 万桶/日 | | | 再次拖累油价走弱；第二轮日美关税谈判结束，石破茂强硬表态：绝不接受 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On April 29, most of the four major A-share stock indices declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index falling by 0.05%, 0.05%, and 0.13% respectively, while the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose by 0.1%. Market trading volume decreased by 35 billion yuan compared to the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, public utilities, communications, and beauty care led the gains, while real estate, pharmaceutical biology, and coal led the losses [2]. - The basis of the next-month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 129.78, 117.71, 50.28, and 24.31 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -15.7%, -15%, -9.51%, and -6.56%. After the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs, stock index fluctuations increased significantly. The short-term index may be oversold. Attention should be paid to signs of tariff relaxation and structural opportunities in the stock market. If the RMB holds the key level, the index may stabilize synchronously. Currently, there are gaps above and below the index, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The valuation of IF is low, and it is recommended to make long-term investments at low prices [3]. - On April 29, treasury bond futures rose across the board. Recently, the short-term capital market is neutral. With the implementation of the US reciprocal tariff executive order, global trade uncertainty has increased significantly. In the short term, the safe-haven property of treasury bonds is more prominent, but the price has reached a high level, and it is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the order of fiscal and monetary policies will determine the direction of long-term prices. If fiscal policies are introduced first and the domestic economy shows further improvement, it is expected that long-term treasury bond prices will gradually cool down and the yield curve will become steeper [3][4]. - High-frequency data shows that the recent infrastructure boom has slightly increased [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Economic Data - High-frequency data indicates a slight increase in the recent infrastructure boom [6]. (2) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance | Code | Name | Change (%) | Current Price | Change | Volume | Turnover (10,000 yuan) | Open Interest | Daily Change in Open Interest | Settlement Price | Basis | Annualized Basis Yield (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IC2505 | CSI 2505 | 0.24 | 5573.8 | 13.4 | 19806 | 2204954 | 47845 | -2300 | 5572.8 | 31.1 | -12.6 | | IC2506 | CSI 2506 | 0.23 | 5487.2 | 12.8 | 34048 | 3731914 | 95869 | -211 | 5487.6 | 117.7 | -15.0 | | IC2509 | CSI 2509 | 0.25 | 5360.8 | 13.2 | 7370 | 789232 | 44957 | 792 | 5360.6 | 244.1 | -10.9 | | IC2512 | CSI 2512 | 0.41 | 5275.6 | 21.8 | 3696 | 388947 | 10261 | 887 | 5266.6 | 329.3 | -9.2 | | IC500 | CSI 500 | 0.12 | 5604.9 | 6.6 | 12674292700 | 15803300 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | | IF2505 | SSE-CSI 2505 | -0.21 | 3757.8 | -7.8 | 17994 | 2029214 | 46271 | -3286 | 3758.4 | 17.3 | -10.4 | | IF2506 | SSE-CSI 2506 | -0.21 | 3724.8 | -8.0 | 37569 | 4199484 | 134140 | -200 | 3725.8 | 50.3 | -9.5 | | IF2509 | SSE-CSI 2509 | -0.15 | 3670.0 | -5.6 | 6039 | 664974 | 54843 | 67 | 3670.2 | 105.1 | -7.0 | | IF2512 | SSE-CSI 2512 | -0.12 | 3645.6 | -4.2 | 2045 | 223522 | 5819 | 461 | 3643.8 | 129.5 | -5.4 | | IF300 | SSE-CSI 300 | -0.17 | 3775.1 | -6.5 | 11151469400 | 19746274 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | | IH2505 | SSE 2505 | -0.32 | 2639.0 | -8.6 | 9490 | 751984 | 17294 | -724 | 2640 | 6.5 | -5.6 | | IH2506 | SSE 2506 | -0.35 | 2621.2 | -9.2 | 20683 | 1628147 | 43068 | 452 | 2623.2 | 24.3 | -6.6 | | IH2509 | SSE 2509 | -0.28 | 2589.8 | -7.2 | 2672 | 207741 | 16917 | 36 | 2590.8 | 55.7 | -5.3 | | IH2512 | SSE 2512 | -0.35 | 2583.4 | -9.2 | 619 | 48041 | 1492 | 41 | 2586.2 | 62.1 | -3.7 | | IH50 | SSE 50 | -0.22 | 2645.5 | -5.7 | 2804263100 | 5389422 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | | IM2505 | China 1000 2505 | 0.60 | 5868.0 | 35.0 | 38130 | 4462992 | 63293 | -4736 | 5864.8 | 35.4 | -13.6 | | IM2506 | China 1000 2506 | 0.70 | 5773.6 | 40.4 | 116166 | 13372787 | 159461 | 203 | 5769 | 129.8 | -15.7 | | IM2509 | China 1000 2509 | 0.64 | 5610.0 | 35.4 | 18463 | 2066494 | 69978 | -1510 | 5607 | 293.4 | -12.4 | | IM2512 | China 1000 2512 | 0.56 | 5478.2 | 30.4 | 6083 | 665528 | 17620 | 884 | 5478.4 | 425.2 | -11.3 | | IM1000 | CSI 1000 | 0.45 | 5903.4 | 26.3 | 18602339400 | 21941178 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | [10] (3) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance | Code | 2-Year Treasury Bond Futures | 5-Year Treasury Bond Futures | 10-Year Treasury Bond Futures | 30-Year Treasury Bond Futures | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current Price | 102.3 | 106.1 | 109.1 | 121.0 | | Change (%) | 0.01 | 0.13 | 0.23 | 0.69 | | Volume | 34240 | 50163 | 51372 | 77545 | | Turnover (10,000 yuan) | 7008580 | 5318695 | 5600931 | 9361494 | | Open Interest | 93075 | 157294 | 192474 | 106469 | | Daily Change in Open Interest | -1495 | -717 | 5655 | 1926 | | CTD Bond | 240024.IB | 240014.IB | 240025.IB | 200012.IB | | Yield Change (bps) | -1.00 | -1.75 | -3.12 | -3.10 | | Net Basis | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | | Quantile | 27.00% | 12.30% | 8.30% | 13.10% | | IRR | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | | Quantile | 70.90% | 94.80% | 94.00% | 87.20% | [12] Short-Term Capital Interest Rate Market Changes | | Current Price | Previous Price | One Week Ago | One Month Ago | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHIBOR: Overnight | 1.54 | 1.60 | 1.71 | 1.73 | | DR001 | 1.54 | 1.59 | 1.70 | 1.72 | | SHIBOR: One Week | 1.75 | 1.72 | 1.67 | 1.94 | | DR007 | 1.78 | 1.75 | 1.71 | 2.05 | [15]

商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 【市场表现】隔夜贵金属小幅震荡，以伦敦金计价的国际金价维持在 3300 美元/盎司一线，沪金主力收于 785 | | | 金 | 元/克。 | | | 属 | 【消息面】美国商务部长谈及部分关税谈判进展，声称有的已谈妥待批准；特朗普预计将采取措施减轻其汽 | | | | 车关税政策带来的冲击。 | | | | 【经济数据】3 月份美国商品贸易逆差比上月增长了 9.6%，达到 1620 亿美元。进口增长 5%至 3427 亿美元， | | | | 其中消费品进口量激增 27.5%，企业纷纷在关税实施前"抢跑"进口；美国 3 月 JOLTS 职位空缺 719.2 万人， | | | | 预期 750 万人，低于媒体调查的所有经济学家的预测；3 月份美国商品贸易逆差比上月增长了 9.6%，达到 1620 | | | | 亿美元。进口增长 5%至 3427 亿美元，其中消费品进口量激增 27.5%。 | | | | 【库存数据】国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日估算流入 0.2 吨，COMEX 黄金库存前一交易 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the stock index futures market, after the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs, stock index fluctuations have significantly increased. There is a possibility of short - term over - decline in the index. Attention should be paid to signs of tariff easing and structural opportunities in the stock market. If the RMB holds the key level, the index may stabilize. Currently, there are gaps above and below the index, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term. Since the valuation of IF is low, it is recommended to make long - term investments at low prices [2]. - For the treasury bond futures market, the short - term capital situation is neutral recently. With the implementation of the US reciprocal tariff executive order, global trade uncertainty has increased significantly. In the short term, the safe - haven property of treasury bonds is more prominent, but the price has reached a high level, so it is expected to move in a volatile manner. In the long run, the sequence of fiscal and monetary policies will determine the direction of long - term prices. If fiscal policies are introduced first and the domestic economy shows a further positive trend, the prices of long - term treasury bonds are expected to gradually decline, and the yield curve will become steeper [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Economic Data High - frequency data shows that the recent infrastructure construction boom has slightly increased [5]. (2) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On April 28, the four major A - share stock indexes declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2% to 3288.41 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.62% to 9855.2 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.65% to 1934.46 points, and the STAR 50 Index fell 0.17% to 1002.83 points. Market trading volume was 1.0768 trillion yuan, a decrease of 60.2 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, public utilities (+0.39%) led the gains, while real estate (-3.66%) led the losses [2]. - The basis and basis annualized yields of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH are 148.06, 127.3, 51.02, and 23.23 points, and - 17.49%, - 15.79%, - 9.37%, and - 6.08% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles are 5%, 3%, 6%, and 16% respectively. The futures - spot price difference has been repaired but remains at a low level [2]. (3) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On April 28, most treasury bond futures rose. The 2 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.01% to 102.32 points, the 5 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.06% to 105.92 points, the 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.03% to 108.84 points, and the 30 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.3% to 120.18 points [3]. - In the open - market operations, the central bank injected 279 billion yuan and withdrew 176 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 103 billion yuan [3]. - The short - term capital interest rate market has changed. For example, SHIBOR overnight is 1.60, DR001 is 1.59, SHIBOR one - week is 1.72, and DR007 is 1.75 [14].

2025年04月29日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 基本金属 招商评论 铝 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2506 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.47%，收于 19935 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 130 元/吨， LME 价格 2427.5 美元/吨。 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅上升。 交易策略：美国关税政策态度缓和，开工环比走强，并维持去库。预计铝价震荡偏强运行。 操作建议：观望或逢低试多。 风险提示：海内外宏观政策变化。 氧 化 铝 市场表现：昨日氧化铝 2509 合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.56%，收于 2862 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 56 元/吨，4 月 23 日，澳大利亚成交 3 万吨，离岸成交价格 347.5 美元/吨，较上一单（4 月 17 日）持平。 基本面：供应方面，氧化铝厂总体运行产能未出现大幅波动。需求方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产 能小幅上升。 交易策略：氧化铝厂压产和检修增多，现货止跌且周度供应短缺转为去库。但几内亚铝土矿发运恢复，进口 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 期货研究 矿价格跌幅扩大，若矿价继续下跌修复 ...