Report Overview - The report is a financial futures early morning report released by China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. on September 26, 2025, covering the performance and trading strategies of stock index futures and treasury bond futures on September 25, 2025 [1][2] 1. Stock Index Futures Market Performance - On September 25, most of the four major A - share stock indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.01% to 3853.3 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.67% to 13445.9 points, the ChiNext Index up 1.58% to 3235.76 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 1.24% to 1474.49 points. Market turnover was 23,918 billion yuan, an increase of 446 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, media (+2.23%), communication (+1.99%), and non - ferrous metals (+1.87%) led the gains; textile and apparel (-1.45%), comprehensive (-1.3%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-1.22%) led the losses [2] - In terms of market strength, IF > IH > IC > IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,474/80/3,875 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had net capital inflows of - 57, - 179, 38, and 198 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 167, - 66, +214, and +19 billion yuan respectively [2] Basis and Basis Annualized Yield - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 146.51, 122.92, 22.29, and 1.14 points respectively, and the basis annualized yields were - 13.55%, - 11.63%, - 3.37%, and - 0.27% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 20%, 13%, 26%, and 41% respectively [2] Trading Strategy - In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Using stock index futures as a long - term substitute currently has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. In the short term, the market shows signs of cooling [2] 2. Treasury Bond Futures Market Performance - On September 25, the bond market performed weakly. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.44, up 1.59 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.621, up 1.56 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.829, up 1.18 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 2.252, up 1.93 bps [2] Cash Bonds - The current active contract is the 2512 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250012.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.055, and an IRR of 1.36%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250003.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.022, and an IRR of 1.5%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250018.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.025, and an IRR of 1.49%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210014.IB, with a yield change of +1.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.326, and an IRR of 0.47% [2] Fundamentals - In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 4,835 billion yuan and withdrew 4,870 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 35 billion yuan [2] Trading Strategy - In the short term, be bullish. The implied interest rate of the ultra - long - term bond at 2.2 is already cost - effective. In the medium - to - long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [2] 3. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [9]

1. Report Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, but there are contradictions in the Fed's outlook. Precious metals prices are at historical highs, with a risk of a peak, and it is recommended to take partial profits on long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options before the holiday [1]. - For base metals, copper is recommended to be bought on dips due to supply disruptions and relatively optimistic demand; aluminum is recommended to be bought on dips considering the slowdown of inventory accumulation and expected post - holiday destocking; alumina is recommended to be temporarily observed as the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged; industrial silicon is expected to oscillate within a certain range, and it is recommended to wait and see; lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate in price, and it is recommended to observe; polysilicon is expected to oscillate within a range, and attention can be paid to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity [2][3]. - In the black industry, for rebar, it is mainly recommended to wait and see, and try the 10/5 reverse spread; for iron ore, it is recommended to try to go long on the 2601 contract and the iron ore - coking coal 01 contract spread; for coking coal, it is mainly recommended to wait and see and try the iron ore - coking coal 01 contract spread [4]. - In the agricultural products market, for soybean meal, short - term trading is based on weak export expectations, and the medium - term focus is on Sino - US tariff policies; for corn, the futures price is expected to oscillate and decline; for sugar, it is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options; for cotton, it is recommended to wait and see; for logs, it is recommended to wait and see; for palm oil, the short - term is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to production areas and biodiesel policies; for eggs, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; for live pigs, the futures price is expected to be weak [5][6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE is expected to oscillate in the short - term and it is recommended to go short on rallies or do a month - spread reverse spread in the long - term; PVC is recommended to be short - allocated; PTA is recommended to short the processing fee on rallies for far - month contracts; rubber is expected to continue to oscillate, with a bullish view in the medium - term; glass is recommended to be long - allocated; PP is expected to oscillate in the short - term and it is recommended to go short on rallies or do a month - spread reverse spread in the long - term; MEG is recommended to close out short positions; crude oil is recommended to be shorted on rallies; styrene is expected to oscillate in the short - term and it is recommended to go short on rallies or do a month - spread reverse spread in the long - term; soda ash and caustic soda are recommended to wait and see [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: The international gold price closed at $3736 per ounce, down 0.74%. There are many international events, and domestic gold ETF funds are flowing out. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options before the holiday [1]. - **Silver**: It followed gold to reach a new high. The market heat increased, and it is also recommended to take partial profits before the holiday [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price rose significantly. Due to supply disruptions and relatively optimistic demand, it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased slightly. With supply increasing and demand recovering, it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract increased. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and it is recommended to temporarily observe [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price oscillated upward. With supply and demand changes, it is expected to oscillate within the 8700 - 9800 range, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract decreased. With supply increasing and demand changing, it is expected to oscillate between 68,000 - 75,000 yuan, and it is recommended to observe [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The price oscillated upward. With a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, it is expected to oscillate within the 48,000 - 57,000 yuan range, and attention can be paid to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the main contract increased. With limited supply - demand contradictions and obvious structural differentiation, it is mainly recommended to wait and see, and try the 10/5 reverse spread [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. With supply and demand remaining neutral - strong, it is recommended to try to go long on the 2601 contract and the iron ore - coking coal 01 contract spread [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. With supply and demand changes and high futures valuation, it is mainly recommended to wait and see and try the iron ore - coking coal 01 contract spread [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean price fell. With supply and demand changes, short - term trading is based on weak export expectations, and the medium - term focus is on Sino - US tariff policies [5]. - **Corn**: The futures price oscillated narrowly, and the spot price rose. With supply increasing and demand weak, the futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [6]. - **Sugar**: The price of the main contract increased. With international and domestic supply and demand changes, it is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fell again. With international and domestic supply and demand changes, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Logs**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. With stable supply and demand, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The price rebounded. With supply and demand changes, the short - term is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to production areas and biodiesel policies [6]. - **Eggs**: The futures price oscillated narrowly, and the spot price fluctuated. With supply and demand changes, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Live Pigs**: The futures price rebounded, and the spot price fluctuated narrowly. With supply and demand changes, the futures price is expected to be weak [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE**: The main contract oscillated slightly. With supply increasing and demand improving but not meeting expectations, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term and it is recommended to go short on rallies or do a month - spread reverse spread in the long - term [8]. - **PVC**: The price of the v01 contract increased. With a weak supply - demand balance, it is recommended to short - allocate [8]. - **PTA**: The PX price is at a certain level, and the PTA price has a certain basis. With supply and demand changes, it is recommended to short the processing fee on rallies for far - month contracts [8]. - **Rubber**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. With raw material prices stabilizing and supply - demand weak expectations, it is expected to continue to oscillate, with a bullish view in the medium - term [8]. - **Glass**: The price of the fg01 contract increased significantly. With improved expectations, it is recommended to long - allocate [9]. - **PP**: The main contract oscillated slightly. With supply increasing and demand improving, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term and it is recommended to go short on rallies or do a month - spread reverse spread in the long - term [9]. - **MEG**: The price has a certain basis. With supply and demand in a relatively balanced and loose state, it is recommended to close out short positions [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The price rose again. With supply increasing and demand weakening, it is recommended to short on rallies [9]. - **Styrene**: The main contract rebounded slightly. With supply and demand changes, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term and it is recommended to go short on rallies or do a month - spread reverse spread in the long - term [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the sa01 contract increased. With supply and demand in balance, it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of the sh01 contract increased slightly. With supply and demand changes, it is recommended to wait and see [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Maintain a long - term view of being bullish on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. There are signs of short - term market cooling [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: In the short term, it is recommended to be bullish, as the implied interest rate of 30 - year bonds at 2.2% is cost - effective. In the medium - to - long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is advisable to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On September 24, the four major A - share stock indexes all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83% to 3853.64 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.8% to 13356.14 points, the ChiNext Index rose 2.28% to 3185.57 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 3.49% to 1456.47 points. Market turnover was 23,472 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,713 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, power equipment, electronics, and media led the gains, while banks, coal, and communications led the losses. In terms of market strength, IC > IM > IF > IH, and the number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 4,457, 120, and 852 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were 111, - 113, - 177, and 179 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +527, +232, - 311, and - 448 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 149.82, 109.91, 24.67, and - 0.29 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 13.44%, - 10.14%, - 3.65%, and 0.07% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 20%, 17%, 24%, and 44% respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, maintain a bullish view on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. There are signs of short - term market cooling [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On September 24, the bond market was weak. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond rose 1.86bps to 1.435, the five - year bond rose 2.51bps to 1.611, the ten - year bond rose 1.99bps to 1.823, and the thirty - year bond rose 2.74bps to 2.236 [1]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2512 contract. The CTD bonds, yield changes, corresponding net basis, and IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided [1]. - **Funding Situation**: In the open - market operations, the central bank injected 4,015 billion yuan and withdrew 4,185 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 170 billion yuan [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, be bullish, as the implied interest rate of 30 - year bonds at 2.2% is cost - effective. In the medium - to - long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is advisable to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [2]. Economic Data High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The precious metals market continues to rise, but there is a risk of a peak in the short - term. Basic metals are expected to be volatile, and different metals have different trends and trading strategies. In the black industry, steel and iron ore markets have certain supply - demand characteristics, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The agricultural products market shows different supply - demand situations for each variety, with corresponding trading strategies. The energy and chemical market has complex supply - demand relationships, and most products are recommended to be short - term cautious or long - term bearish [1][2][6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Precious metal prices continue to rise, with New York gold breaking through $3,800 per ounce, and market funds continue to go long [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The Fed's stance on interest rate cuts is divided, and economic data in the US and the eurozone shows mixed trends. Domestic gold ETF funds continue to flow in, and inventories of gold and silver in different regions have changed [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic, but with contradictory outlooks and high prices, it is recommended to partially close long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options before the holiday for gold, and also partially take profits for silver [1]. 3.2 Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated weakly yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The path of the US dollar interest rate cut is clear, but there are uncertainties. Domestic policy expectations have fallen short in the short - term, and Powell's speech has affected risk preferences [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt an oscillatory thinking in the short - term and wait for good buying points [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.29% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 20,685 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintain high - load production, and downstream consumption continues to pick up [2][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots slows down, and it is recommended to go long on dips due to the expected post - holiday destocking [4]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 1.94% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2,877 yuan per ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina plants continues to increase, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply - demand surplus pattern of alumina remains unchanged, and it is expected that the price will oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main contract opened low and oscillated narrowly on Tuesday [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side has new furnaces opened, and social inventory slightly accumulates. The demand side has high polysilicon operating rates, but the "anti - involution" policy has a multi - empty game [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The disk is expected to oscillate between 8,700 - 9,800 yuan, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract closed at 73,660 yuan per ton, up 0.3% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is increasing, with lithium ore imports and production changing. Demand is strong due to the peak season of energy storage and new energy vehicles. It is expected to continue destocking in September [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate between 68,000 - 75,000 yuan, and the core driver lies in supply - side changes. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main contract opened low and oscillated narrowly on Tuesday, with a decrease of 1.43% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak. Supply is stable with high operating rates, and demand has limited price fluctuations in downstream products. The photovoltaic installation demand in the third quarter is pessimistic [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The disk is expected to oscillate downward. Pay attention to the support level at 48,000 yuan and the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity [4]. 3.3 Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The main contract of rebar closed at 3,145 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan from the previous night's closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The demand for building materials is in the peak season, but the previous high supply has led to slow destocking. The demand for plates is stable, and the inventory accumulation margin slows down. The overall supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited, but the structural differentiation is obvious [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. Try the 10/5 reverse spread for rebar. The reference range for RB01 is 3,100 - 3,170 yuan [6]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main contract of iron ore closed at 803 yuan per ton, down 4.5 yuan from the previous night's closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, and the inventory increased. The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the steel mill's profit margin has slightly recovered. The supply - demand of iron ore is marginally neutral to strong, and the inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal pattern [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The reference range for I01 is 790 - 810 yuan [6]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main contract of coking coal closed at 1,224 yuan per ton, up 13 yuan from the previous night's closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, but some non - mainstream coking plants have proposed price increases. The inventory at each link of the supply side is differentiated, and the futures valuation is high [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The reference range for JM01 is 1,180 - 1,250 yuan [6]. 3.4 Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The US soybeans have a slight reduction in production and are entering the harvest season. South America is expected to increase production in the long - term. The demand is structurally differentiated, with an increase in US soybean crushing but a weak export demand for new crops. The global inventory is expected to be high [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, US soybeans are weak due to weak export expectations, and the domestic market is also weak due to a narrowing gap expectation. Pay attention to Sino - US tariff policies in the medium - term [7]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn 2511 contract is running weakly, and most of the spot prices of corn have fallen [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The auction of imported grains has increased the market supply, and the low transaction rate reflects weak market sentiment. The new crop is expected to increase production, and the cost has decreased significantly, suppressing the long - term price expectation. Trade negotiations bring uncertainties to imports [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the pressure of new crop listing, the futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [7]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5,487 yuan per ton, up 0.86% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, Brazil's sugar production has reached a new high, and the raw sugar price has been affected. Domestically, the import volume in August reached a new high, and the market expects high imports in the future. The sugar production in Inner Mongolia for the 25/26 season has officially started [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Overnight, the US cotton futures price stopped falling and rebounded, and the international crude oil price rose significantly. The Zhengzhou cotton futures price also stopped falling and rebounded [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the cotton boll opening rate in the US is slightly different from previous years, and the local cotton price in Pakistan is under pressure. Domestically, the opening rate of spinning mills is basically stable [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and mainly use a range strategy of 13,600 - 14,000 yuan per ton [8]. Logs - **Market Performance**: The log 09 contract closed at 805 yuan per cubic meter, down 0.31%. The spot prices of logs in different regions are stable [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The total inventory of major ports across the country has slightly decreased, and the current spot price is stable, with no obvious improvement in downstream demand [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [8]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: In the short - term, Malaysian palm oil continues to fall, digesting the negative impact of Argentina's suspension of export tariffs [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side is in the seasonal production - increasing cycle, and the demand side has an estimated 8.7% month - on - month increase in exports from September 1 - 20 according to ITS [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, palm oil is weak due to the suppression of international oils. Pay attention to the production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies in the later stage [8]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg 2511 contract is running weakly, and the spot price is stable [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The double - festival stocking is coming to an end, the downstream acceptance of high egg prices is low, the supply is sufficient, and the inventory has increased. The feed price is low, and the vegetable price has dragged down the egg price [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The egg price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the futures price is also expected to be weak [8]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The pig 2511 contract continues to decline, and the spot price of pigs has slightly decreased [8][9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is abundant, the slaughter of farmers and second - fattening pigs is increasing, and the slaughter volume in September is expected to increase by 3.9%. The weather is getting cooler, and the pig growth is accelerating. Fearing the seasonal weakening of demand after the double festivals, the pre - festival slaughter enthusiasm has increased, and the pre - festival pig price is expected to be weak. The pig - to - grain ratio has fallen below 6, and policy support may boost market sentiment [8][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the loose supply, the futures price is expected to be weak [9]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract of LLDPE continued to decline slightly yesterday. The low - price spot quotation in North China is 7,050 yuan per ton, the basis of the 01 contract is the disk price minus 50, and the basis is strengthening. The market trading performance is average. The US dollar price in the overseas market has a slight decline, and the import window is closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, new devices are put into operation, and the domestic supply continues to increase. The import volume is expected to decrease slightly. On the demand side, it is currently the peak season for downstream agricultural films, and the demand has improved month - on - month, but other areas' demand remains stable [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, the industrial chain inventory is slightly destocked, the basis is weak, the supply is increasing, and the peak - season demand is less than expected. It will mainly oscillate, and the upside space is significantly restricted by the import window. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will gradually become loose in the fourth quarter, and it is recommended to short at high prices or do the month - spread reverse spread [10]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 contract closed at 4,884, down 0.3% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: PVC is oscillating at the bottom, and the spot trading is light. The supply - demand is in a weak balance. New devices have been put into operation, the production in August increased by 6% year - on - year, the upstream operating rate is 78%, the downstream factory operating rate is about 37% and has declined by 2% month - on - month. The real estate new construction and completion are down 15% year - on - year, and the social inventory has reached a new high [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the weak supply - demand, it is recommended to short [10]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The fg01 contract closed at 1,188, down 2.3% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The glass trading is stable, and the center of gravity has slightly moved up. The supply - demand is weak. The daily melting volume of the supply side is 160,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 7.0%. One production line is expected to resume production in October. The inventory has decreased, the downstream deep - processing enterprise order days are 10.4 days, and the operating rate is about 49% and has increased by 1% month - on - month. The real estate new construction and completion are down 15% year - on - year, and the spot price has slightly increased [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the seasonal recovery of demand, it is recommended to go long [10]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PP continued to decline slightly yesterday. The spot price of PP in East China is 6,730 yuan per ton, the basis of the 01 contract is the disk price minus 100, and the basis is strengthening. The market trading performance is average. The US dollar quotation in the overseas market has a slight decline, the import window is closed, and the export window is open [10]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the overall maintenance scale is still relatively high in the short - term, new devices are gradually starting up, the domestic supply is increasing, and the supply pressure has increased. The export window has reopened. On the demand side, the peak season of "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" is coming, and the downstream operating rate has increased month - on - month [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, the industrial chain inventory is slightly destocked, the basis is weak, the supply and demand are both increasing. It is expected that the disk will oscillate weakly, and the upside space is limited by the import window. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will become loose in the fourth quarter, and it is recommended to short at high prices or do the month - spread reverse spread [10]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, the oil price stabilized. The agreement for Iraq to resume the Kurdish crude oil export pipeline was blocked, and Trump's statement about anti - Russian oil has affected the market [10]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, pay attention to the decline in Russian crude oil exports, with a small expected reduction. OPEC+ plans to increase production, but the actual increase is relatively small. The supply pressure from other countries is gradually increasing. On the demand side, the gasoline consumption peak season is over, and the refineries in Europe and the US are entering the autumn maintenance period. The demand is weakening month - on - month, and there is a risk of global economic slowdown in Q4 [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to strong supply and weak demand, it is recommended to short crude oil at high prices and pay attention to the short - selling opportunity for the SC main contract around 500 yuan per barrel [10]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract of EB continued to decline slightly yesterday. The spot market quotation in East China is 6,900 yuan per ton, and the market trading atmosphere is average. The US dollar price in the overseas market has a slight decline, and the import window is still closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the pure benzene inventory is at a normal to high level, and the supply - demand expectation has marginally improved, but the overall contradiction is still large. The styrene inventory is also at a normal to high level, and the downstream has destocked before the holiday. On the demand side, the downstream enterprises are still suffering large losses, the finished product inventory has slightly decreased but is still at a high level. The downstream operating rate has increased month - on - month with the arrival of the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" peak season [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, the pure benzene inventory has slightly decreased, and the supply - demand has marginally improved, but the overall contradiction is still large. The styrene inventory is at a normal to high level, the downstream has restocked before the holiday, the basis is weakening, and the supply - demand is weak. It is expected that the disk will oscillate weakly, and the upside space is limited by the import window. In the long - term, as the supply gradually recovers, the market supply - demand pattern will become loose. It is recommended to short at high prices or do the month - spread reverse spread when the price rebounds [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long positions in forward contracts of various varieties on dips. In the short term, the market shows signs of cooling [2]. - For the short - term, be bullish on bonds, as the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 is cost - effective; for the medium to long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On September 23, A - share four major stock indexes had a mild adjustment. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18% to 3821.83 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.29% to 13119.82 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.21% to 3114.55 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 0.1% to 1407.3 points. Market turnover was 25,185 billion yuan, an increase of 3,760 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - In terms of industry sectors, banks (+1.52%), coal (+1.11%), and power equipment (+0.43%) led the gains; social services (-3.11%), commerce and retail (-2.9%), and computer (-2.39%) led the losses [1]. - In terms of market strength, IF>IH>IC>IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,107/58/4,264 respectively. Net capital inflows of institutions, main players, large investors, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were -416, -345, 135, and 627 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -404, -209, +150, and +462 billion yuan respectively [1]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 199.47, 184.31, 24.38, and -4.49 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -17.71%, -16.89%, -3.55%, and 1.01% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 9%, 5%, 25%, and 57% respectively [1]. - The performance details of various stock index futures contracts are shown in Table 1, including price, trading volume, open interest, basis, and annualized basis yield [5]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On September 23, the bond market performed weakly. The implied interest rates of the active contracts of two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year bonds increased compared with the previous day [2]. - For the current active 2512 contract, the CTD bonds, yield changes, net basis, and IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided [2]. - The performance details of various treasury bond futures contracts are shown in Table 2, including price, trading volume, open interest, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rate [6]. - The figure shows the term structure of treasury bond spot [7][8]. (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [9]. - The short - term capital interest rate market changes are shown in Table 3, including SHIBOR overnight rates [9]. - The figure shows the domestic meso - level data tracking, which is based on the comparison of meso - level data of each module with the same period in the past five years, scored according to the degree of change [10][11][12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term view of going long on the economy, recommend buying long - term contracts on dips; short - term market shows signs of cooling [2] - For treasury bond futures, be bullish in the short - term as the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds is attractive; in the medium - to long - term, with rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, suggest hedging T and TL contracts on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On September 22, the four major A - share stock indexes adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.22% to 3828.58, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.67% to 13157.97, the ChiNext Index up 0.55% to 3107.89, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index up 3.38% to 1408.64. Market turnover was 21,425 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,070 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - In terms of industry sectors, electronics (+3.71%), computer (+1.7%), and non - ferrous metals (+0.98%) led the gains; social services (-2.04%), beauty care (-1.36%), and commercial retail (-1.31%) led the losses [1] - From the perspective of market strength, IC>IM>IF>IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2,175/102/3,151 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net inflows were - 13, - 137, - 16, and 165 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +193, +88, - 33, and - 249 billion yuan respectively [1] - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 177.08, 146.93, 29.21, and 0.18 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 15.16%, - 13.04%, - 4.14%, and - 0.04% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 14%, 10%, 21%, and 43% respectively [2] (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On September 22, most yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of two - year bonds was 1.384, down 2.52 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of five - year bonds was 1.562, down 3.1 bps; the implied interest rate of ten - year bonds was 1.775, down 2.79 bps; the implied interest rate of thirty - year bonds was 2.203, up 0.86 bps [2] - For the current active 2512 contract, the CTD bond of the two - year treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.022, and an IRR of 1.58%; the CTD bond of the five - year treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a yield change of - 1 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.048, and an IRR of 1.69%; the CTD bond of the ten - year treasury bond futures was 250018.IB, with a yield change of - 1.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.063, and an IRR of 1.76%; the CTD bond of the thirty - year treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 0.12 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.201, and an IRR of 0.82% [3] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 5,405 billion yuan and withdrew 2,800 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 2,605 billion yuan [3] (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It presents market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each sector, offering insights for investors to make informed decisions in the commodity futures market [1][3][5]. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold**: Prices hit new highs. The medium - term outlook remains bullish. Silver followed gold to new highs, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - **Silver**: Followed gold to reach new highs, with increased market popularity, and short - term participation is advised [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The main Shanghai copper contract oscillated around 80,000 yuan. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and domestic inventory decreased by 0.44 tons last week. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Aluminum**: The main electrolytic aluminum contract closed at 20,745 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day. Supply increased slightly, and downstream consumption continued to recover. A strategy of buying on dips is suggested, with attention to inventory reduction [1]. - **Alumina**: The main contract closed at 2,934 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from the previous day. Supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to be weak and volatile. Temporary observation is recommended [3]. - **Zinc**: The main Shanghai zinc contract closed at 22,080 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day. Supply increased significantly, while consumption entered the off - season. A strategy of selling on rallies is recommended [3]. - **Lead**: The main Shanghai lead contract closed at 17,125 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day. Supply is mixed, and demand has support from pre - festival stockpiling. A strategy of range - bound trading and short - term buying on dips is recommended [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract closed at 8,950 yuan/ton, down 3.82% from the previous day. Supply increased slightly, and demand is supported by high polysilicon operating rates. The market is expected to oscillate between 8,700 - 9,800 yuan/ton, and observation is recommended [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract closed at 73,420 yuan/ton, down 0.7%. Supply increased, and demand from the energy storage and new energy vehicle sectors is strong. Prices are expected to oscillate between 68,000 - 75,000 yuan, and observation is recommended [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract closed at 50,990 yuan/ton, down 3.24% from the previous day. Supply is strong, and demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan, and attention can be paid to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity [4]. - **Tin**: Prices oscillated weakly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand was slightly boosted by price adjustments. A range - bound trading strategy with attention to the 60 - day moving average support is recommended [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract closed at 3,170 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan from the previous night session. Building material inventory decreased by 1.6% to 518 tons. A strategy of unilateral observation and a 10/5 reverse spread attempt is recommended [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract closed at 807.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from the previous night session. Supply decreased slightly, and demand remained stable. Observation is recommended, with a reference range of 795 - 815 yuan [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract closed at 1,211 yuan/ton, down 28.5 yuan from the previous night session. Supply and demand are in a neutral state, and the futures are overvalued. Observation is recommended, with a reference range of 1,170 - 1,240 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight CBOT soybeans fell. US soybeans are slightly减产, and South American production is expected to increase. Short - term trading of weak export expectations is recommended, and the medium - term depends on Sino - US tariff policies [6]. - **Corn**: The 2511 contract hit a new low. Imported grain auctions increased supply, and new - crop production is expected to increase. Futures prices are expected to oscillate and decline [6]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract closed at 5,455 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. International and domestic sugar supplies are increasing. A strategy of shorting in the futures market and selling call options is recommended [6]. - **Cotton**: Overnight US cotton futures oscillated and fell. US cotton quality declined, and domestic textile enterprises restocked in small amounts. Temporary observation with a range - bound strategy of 13,600 - 14,000 yuan/ton is recommended [6]. - **Log**: The 09 contract closed at 807.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.31%. Port inventory decreased slightly, and the market oscillated around 800 yuan/cubic meter. Observation is recommended [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term prices continued to fall. Supply is in the seasonal growth period, and demand increased in the near term. The market is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Egg**: The 2511 contract weakened, and spot prices were stable. Double - festival stockpiling is ending, and supply is sufficient. Egg prices are expected to oscillate and weaken [7]. - **Pig**: The 2511 contract oscillated narrowly. Supply is abundant, and prices are expected to be weak before the festival. Policy support may boost market sentiment [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract fell slightly. Supply increased, and demand improved seasonally. Short - term prices are expected to be weak and volatile, and a strategy of shorting on rallies or reverse spread trading in the medium - to - long term is recommended [8]. - **PVC**: The V01 contract closed at 4,939 yuan, down 0.2%. Supply increased, and demand was weak. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [8]. - **Rubber**: The RU2601 contract closed at 15,615 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. Typhoon weather and inventory reduction supported prices. The medium - term outlook remains bullish [9]. - **Glass**: The FG01 contract closed at 1,199 yuan, down 1%. Supply decreased, and inventory declined. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9]. - **PP**: The main contract fell slightly. Supply increased, and demand improved seasonally. Short - term prices are expected to be weak and volatile, and a strategy of shorting on rallies or reverse spread trading in the medium - to - long term is recommended [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices fell due to increased supply from Iraq. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weakening. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [9]. - **Styrene**: The main contract fell slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand remains weak. Short - term prices are expected to be weak and volatile, and a strategy of shorting on rallies or reverse spread trading in the medium - to - long term is recommended [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA01 contract closed at 1,294 yuan, down 1.45%. Inventory decreased, and prices were stable. Observation is recommended [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: The SH01 contract closed at 2,605 yuan, down 0.7%. Supply was stable, and demand from non - aluminum sectors improved. Observation is recommended [10].

Market Performance - On September 19, the four major A-share indices pulled back, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.3% at 3820.09 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.04% at 13070.86 points, the ChiNext Index down 0.16% at 3091 points, and the STAR 50 Index down 1.28% at 1362.65 points. Market turnover was 23,494 billion yuan, a decrease of 8,172 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, coal (+1.97%), non-ferrous metals (+1.19%), and building materials (+1.05%) led the gains, while automobiles (-1.94%), pharmaceuticals and biotechnology (-1.41%), and computers (-1.26%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IF > IH > IC > IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,909/115/3,403 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of -206, -225, 18, and 414 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +126, +203, -94, and -235 billion yuan respectively [2]. Stock Index Futures Basis and Yield - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 94.39, 65.35, 14.92, and -3.46 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -21.15%, -15.19%, -5.52%, and 1.98% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 3%, 8%, 19%, and 71% respectively [3]. Trading Strategy - In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock indices as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips. In the short term, the market shows signs of cooling [3]. Treasury Bond Futures Market Performance - On September 19, the yields of treasury bond futures rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.407, up 3.72 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.585, up 4.42 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.796, up 4.55 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 2.2, up 1.97 bps [3]. Cash Bond and Related Data - The current active contract is the 2512 contract. For the two - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250012.IB, with a yield change of +2 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.012, and an IRR of 1.46%; for the five - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250003.IB, with a yield change of +2.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.015, and an IRR of 1.45%; for the ten - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250018.IB, with a yield change of +3.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.013, and an IRR of 1.56%; for the thirty - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +3.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.306, and an IRR of 0.55% [4]. Capital Situation - In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 3,543 billion yuan and withdrew 2,300 billion yuan, with a net injection of 1,243 billion yuan [4]. Trading Strategy - Short - term is bullish, and the implied interest rate of 2.2 for ultra - long bonds has sufficient cost - effectiveness; in the medium to long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL on rallies [4]. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged. Although the Fed has cut interest rates as expected, there are contradictions in the outlook. Gold prices are at historical highs, with short - term high - level fluctuations and a mid - term bullish outlook. Silver follows gold and is recommended to be on the sidelines [1]. - For copper, after the market stabilizes following the decline due to the interest rate cut, it is expected to shift from loose trading to recovery trading, and it is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels. Considering the seasonal peak season and pre - National Day stockpiling, it is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - Alumina is in a pattern of oversupply, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the range of 8700 - 9800, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate between 68,000 - 75,000 yuan, and the key driver lies in supply - side changes, so it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Polysilicon is expected to oscillate between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan, and it is possible to pay attention to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity [2]. - Tin is expected to oscillate with a slightly stronger trend [2]. - For steel, it is recommended to mainly stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and try the 10/5 reverse spread for rebar [4]. - Iron ore and coking coal are recommended to be on the sidelines [4]. - For soybeans, in the short term, there is a differentiation between domestic and foreign markets. The domestic market is expected to be relatively stronger, presenting a positive spread structure, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policies [5]. - Corn futures prices are expected to oscillate and decline [5]. - For sugar, it is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - Cotton is recommended to be on the sidelines, with a range strategy of 13,600 - 14,000 yuan/ton [6]. - Logs are recommended to be on the sidelines [6]. - Palm oil's single - side trading is more difficult, and it is necessary to pay attention to production area output and biodiesel policies later [6]. - Egg prices are expected to oscillate and weaken [6]. - For live pigs, the near - far month spread is expected to continue to weaken, and the reverse spread continues [6]. - For LLDPE, in the short term, it is mainly oscillating, and in the medium - to long - term, it is recommended to short at high prices or do month - spread reverse spreads [7]. - PVC is recommended to go short at high prices [7]. - For PX, the price is expected to be strong, and for PTA, it is recommended to short the processing fee at high prices for the far - month contracts [7]. - Rubber is expected to continue the oscillating market, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and remain bullish in the medium term [7]. - Glass is recommended to go long at low prices [9]. - PP is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and in the medium - to long - term, it is recommended to short at high prices or do month - spread reverse spreads [9]. - For MEG, short positions should stop profit and exit [9]. - Crude oil is recommended to go short at high prices [9]. - Styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and in the medium - to long - term, it is recommended to short at high prices or short the styrene profit [10]. - Soda ash is in a weak supply - demand balance, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Precious metal prices rebounded, and the US is facing the dilemma of a government shutdown again [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There was a phone call between Chinese and US leaders, and Trump said it was "very productive". H - 1B visa application fees were raised. Gold ETF funds in China continued to flow in, and there were changes in gold and silver inventories in various regions [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged. In the short term, there are high - level fluctuations, and in the medium term, gold is still bullish. Silver follows gold and is recommended to be on the sidelines [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated slightly stronger on Friday [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the domestic demand peak season is not obvious, but downstream buyers are active after the price correction. The global visible inventory has slightly accumulated [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is expected to shift from loose trading to recovery trading, and it is recommended to buy on dips [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract on Friday was not significantly different from the previous trading day [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintain high - load production, and downstream consumption is continuously recovering [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The macro environment is flat, and the trading focus turns to fundamentals. It is expected that the price will oscillate at high levels, and it is recommended to buy on dips [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract on Friday increased by 0.75% compared with the previous trading day [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina plants continues to increase, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main contract on Friday oscillated and rose slightly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side has new furnaces opened, and the demand side is supported by the high operating rate of polysilicon [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The policy progress has a long - short game, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 8700 - 9800. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract on Friday increased by 1.5% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Production is increasing, and demand is strong. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory in September [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate between 68,000 - 75,000 yuan, and the key driver lies in supply - side changes. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main contract on Friday oscillated and decreased slightly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, with inventory accumulation. The photovoltaic installation demand in the third quarter is pessimistic [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly this week and between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan next week. It is possible to pay attention to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity [2]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices oscillated slightly stronger on Friday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: After the price decline due to the Fed's interest rate cut, it stabilized near the 60 - day line. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the global visible inventory has decreased significantly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is treated with an idea of oscillating with a slightly stronger trend [2]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract of rebar closed at 3188 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan from the previous night session [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The overall supply - demand contradiction of building materials is limited, but there is significant structural differentiation. The futures premium of rebar and hot - rolled coil has little marginal change, and the valuation is neutral [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is mainly recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and try the 10/5 reverse spread for rebar [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract of iron ore closed at 815.5 yuan/ton, up 14.5 yuan from the previous night session [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of iron ore is moderately strong. The iron - making output has increased slightly, and the supply is in line with seasonal rules. The long - term premium structure remains, and the valuation is moderately high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to be on the sidelines [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1239.5 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan from the previous night session [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron - making output has increased, and the steel mill's profit has stabilized marginally. The inventory of coking coal in various links is differentiated, and the futures valuation is high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to be on the sidelines [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Soybeans on the CBOT market fell on Friday due to no substantial new progress in Sino - US tariff policies [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The US soybeans are slightly减产, and South America has an expected increase in production. The demand is structurally differentiated, with an increase in US soybean crushing and weak new - crop export demand [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, there is a differentiation between domestic and foreign markets. The domestic market is expected to be relatively stronger, presenting a positive spread structure. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies [5]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The 2511 contract of corn oscillated in a narrow range, with the spot price rising in North China and falling in Northeast China [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The auction of imported grains increases supply, and the new - crop is expected to increase production. The cost has decreased significantly, and the spot price is expected to be weak [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [5]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The ICE raw sugar 10 contract closed at 16.18 cents/pound, up 2.47% for the week. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5461 yuan/ton, down 1.50% for the week [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, Brazil's sugar production and crushing rate reached new highs, and the raw sugar was under pressure. Domestically, the import volume in August reached a new high, and the market expects high imports in the future [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The US cotton futures price fell on Friday, and the US dollar index continued to strengthen [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the cumulative net signing of US cotton exports reached 35.40% of the annual expectation. Pakistan's textile and clothing exports decreased. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated weakly, and the opening rate of spinning mills was basically stable [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to be on the sidelines for now, with a range strategy of 13,600 - 14,000 yuan/ton [6]. Logs - **Market Performance**: The 11 - contract of logs closed at 805 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.63% for the week [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of major ports across the country has decreased slightly, and the spot price is stable. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it fluctuates around 800 yuan/cubic meter [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to be on the sidelines [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil continued to fall on Friday, affected by US soybean oil and US biodiesel policy disturbances [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The production area is in the seasonal production - increasing cycle, and the export of Malaysian palm oil from September 1 - 15 is expected to increase by 2% month - on - month. There is inventory accumulation in the near term and a seasonal production - decreasing expectation in the far term, but there are biodiesel policy disturbances [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The single - side trading of palm oil is more difficult in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to production area output and biodiesel policies later [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The 2511 contract of eggs oscillated in a narrow range, and the spot price rose and fell unevenly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The double - festival stocking is coming to an end, the downstream acceptance of egg prices has decreased, the supply is sufficient, and the inventory has increased. The feed price is low, and the vegetable price is low, which drags down the egg price [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The egg price is expected to oscillate and weaken, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The 2511 contract of live pigs oscillated in a narrow range, and the spot price rose slightly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is abundant, the slaughter of farmers and second - fattening pigs is increasing, and the slaughter volume in September is expected to increase by 3.9%. There are concerns about the seasonal weakening of demand after the double festivals, and the policy may boost market sentiment [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The near - far month spread is expected to continue to weaken, and the reverse spread continues [6]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract of LLDPE oscillated slightly on Friday. The spot price in North China was 7100 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic supply is increasing, and the import volume is expected to decrease slightly. The demand in the downstream agricultural film season has improved [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, it is mainly oscillating, and in the medium - to long - term, it is recommended to short at high prices or do month - spread reverse spreads [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The v01 contract of PVC closed at 4963, up 0.2% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The PVC market has a weak supply - demand balance, with new device production increasing supply, low downstream demand, and high social inventory [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go short at high prices [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The CFR China price of PX was 836 dollars/ton, and the spot price of PTA in East China was 4600 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX and PTA is increasing, and the polyester load has recovered. PX is in a state of inventory reduction, while PTA has inventory accumulation [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of PX is expected to be strong, and for PTA, it is recommended to short the processing fee at high prices for the far - month contracts [7]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: Rubber continued to be weak on Friday, oscillating and falling, and recovered some losses at the end of the session [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The raw material prices in Thailand have slightly decreased, the downstream enterprise opening rate has fluctuated slightly, and the inventory has increased slightly [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and remain bullish in the medium term [7]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The fg01 contract of glass closed at 1226, up 1% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The glass market has a weak supply - demand situation, with a decrease in daily melting volume and inventory. The downstream demand has improved seasonally [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long at low prices [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PP oscillated slightly on Friday. The spot price in East China was 6800 yuan/ton, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic supply is increasing, and the downstream opening rate has increased with the arrival of the peak season [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the medium - to long - term, it is recommended to short at high prices or do month - spread reverse spreads [9]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The spot price of MEG in East China was 4378 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was 102 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is at a historical high level, and the import supply increase is limited. The polyester load has recovered, and the inventory is at a medium - low level [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short positions should stop profit and exit [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose first and then fell this week. The rise was due to concerns about Russian oil supply risks, and the fall was due to fundamental oversupply [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing, with OPEC+ planning to increase production, and the demand is weakening as the gasoline consumption peak season ends and refineries enter the maintenance period [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go short at high prices and pay attention to shorting opportunities

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no specific information about the overall industry investment ratings in the report. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged. Although the Fed cut interest rates as expected, there are contradictions in the outlook. Gold prices are at a historical high, with short - term high - level oscillations and a medium - term bullish trend. Silver follows gold and is recommended to be observed [4]. - For various commodities, different trading strategies are proposed based on their market performance, fundamentals, and supply - demand relationships, such as going long on aluminum at dips, observing for zinc, going long on lead at dips, etc. [3][5] Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: The price is at a high level. The de - dollarization logic persists, and with the Fed's interest - rate cut, it is expected to have short - term high - level oscillations and a medium - term upward trend. Domestic gold ETF funds continue to flow in, and inventories in some exchanges increase [4]. - **Silver**: Follows the trend of gold and is recommended to be observed. Global silver ETF holdings decrease [4]. Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract drops. The supply side maintains high - load production, and the demand side shows continuous warming. After the interest - rate cut and inventory de - stocking difficulties, the price has a phased decline. It is recommended to go long at dips considering future demand. The price of the alumina main contract also drops. The supply is in a high - production state, and the demand comes from electrolytic aluminum plants. Due to the supply - demand surplus pattern, it is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and it is recommended to observe [3]. - **Zinc**: The price of the main contract drops. Supply - side disturbances increase, but overall supply is abundant. Consumption is "not in the peak - season", and inventories continue to accumulate. It is recommended to observe [3][5]. - **Lead**: The price of the main contract rises slightly. Supply is regionally tightened, and consumption is expected to increase. Inventories show a small accumulation, but spot circulation is tight. It is recommended to go long at dips [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price drops. Supply increases, and both social and warehouse inventories start to accumulate. Demand is at a relatively high level this year. The market is in a long - short game regarding policies, and it is expected to oscillate within a certain range. It is recommended to observe [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract price drops. Supply is increasing, and demand from the energy - storage and new - energy vehicle sectors is strong. It is expected to de - stock, and the price is expected to oscillate within a certain range. It is recommended to observe [5]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract price drops. Supply is stable, and inventories start to accumulate. Demand in the photovoltaic industry is weak. The market is in a game regarding policies, and it is expected to oscillate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the 11 - 12 reverse - spread opportunity [5]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the main contract drops. Steel demand shows seasonal marginal improvement with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to hold short positions in the rebar 2601 contract [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main contract drops. Iron ore supply - demand is neutral to strong. It is recommended to observe [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the main contract drops. Supply - side inventories are differentiated, and the futures are over - valued. It is recommended to observe [6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The price of CBOT soybeans drops. Global supply is expected to be loose, and demand shows a structural differentiation. Short - term domestic and foreign markets are differentiated, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policies [7]. - **Corn**: The 2511 contract is weakly running. Imported grain auctions increase supply, and new - crop production is expected to increase. The futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [8]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract price drops. Brazilian sugar production is high, and the domestic sugarcane growing situation varies by region. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. - **Cotton**: The price of the US cotton futures drops, and the domestic cotton futures are weakly oscillating. It is recommended to observe within a certain price range [8]. - **Log**: The 09 contract price drops. Port inventories are stable, and downstream demand has not improved. It is recommended to observe [8]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of Malaysian palm oil drops. Supply is in a seasonal increase cycle, and demand shows a certain increase. Near - term inventories are accumulating, and there is a seasonal production - reduction expectation in the long - term. The short - term is restricted by international oils, and it is recommended to pay attention to production and bio - diesel policies [8]. - **Egg**: The 2511 contract oscillates narrowly, and the spot price drops. Supply is sufficient, and demand may increase seasonally. The futures are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short - term [8]. - **Live Pig**: The 2511 contract continues to decline, and the spot price drops. Supply is abundant in the near - term and expected to decrease in the long - term. It is recommended to continue the reverse - spread strategy [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract price drops slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is improving. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will become looser. It is recommended to short at high prices or conduct a reverse - spread operation [10]. - **PVC**: The 01 contract price is flat. Supply - demand is in a weak balance, and inventories are at a new high. It is recommended to observe [10]. - **Rubber**: The price of the main contract drops. Raw material prices fluctuate, and downstream enterprise operating rates change slightly. The market is in an oscillating state under the situation of strong reality and weak expectation [10]. - **Glass**: The 01 contract price drops. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and inventories are decreasing. Downstream demand shows seasonal improvement. It is recommended to go long at dips [10][11]. - **PP**: The main contract price drops slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the peak - season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will become looser. It is recommended to short at high prices or conduct a reverse - spread operation [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: The price drops. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to short at high prices [11]. - **Styrene**: The main contract price drops. Supply inventories are at a normal - to - high level, and demand is in the peak - season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will become looser. It is recommended to short at high prices or short the styrene profit [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The 01 contract price drops. Supply is in the high - production season, and inventories are rising. Supply - demand is in a weak balance. It is recommended to observe [11][12]. - **Caustic Soda**: The 01 contract price rises. Supply - demand is relatively healthy. It is recommended to go long [12].