Group 1: Market Performance - On September 11, the four major A - share stock indices all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.65% to 3875.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.36% to 12979.89 points, the ChiNext Index rose 5.15% to 3053.75 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 5.32% to 1326.03 points. Market trading volume was 24,646 billion yuan, an increase of 4,606 billion yuan from the previous day. [2] - In terms of industry sectors, communication (+7.39%), electronics (+5.96%), and computer (+3.71%) led the gains; textile and apparel (+0.14%), petroleum and petrochemical (+0.2%), and social services (+0.22%) led the declines. In terms of market strength, IC > IM > IF > IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4,220/161/1,045 respectively. [2] - Net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were 260, - 157, - 248, and 145 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +215, - 99, - 180, and +64 billion yuan respectively. [2] Group 2: Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 73.89, 49.71, - 6.37, and - 5.52 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were - 11.89%, - 8.31%, 1.67%, and 2.2% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 27%, 23%, 76%, and 75% respectively. [2] - In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips. In the short term, the market shows signs of cooling. [2] Group 3: Treasury Bond Futures - On September 11, the yields of most treasury bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond was 1.376, a decrease of 3.85 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond was 1.605, a decrease of 3.47 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year treasury bond was 1.798, a decrease of 2.13 bps; the implied interest rate of the thirty - year treasury bond was 2.203, an increase of 0.2 bps. [2] - For the current active 2512 contract, the CTD bond of the two - year treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 1.25 bps, corresponding to a net basis of - 0.029 and an IRR of 1.59%; the CTD bond of the five - year treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a yield change of - 3.5 bps, corresponding to a net basis of 0.055 and an IRR of 1.27%; the CTD bond of the ten - year treasury bond futures was 220017.IB, with a yield change of - 1.5 bps, corresponding to a net basis of 0.149 and an IRR of 0.93%; the CTD bond of the thirty - year treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of +1 bps, corresponding to a net basis of - 0.06 and an IRR of 1.67%. [2] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 2920 billion yuan and withdrew 2126 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 794 billion yuan. [2] - With the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge on rallies for the medium - to - long term for T and TL. [2] Group 4: Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recent social activities and infrastructure construction have weak prosperity. [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased significantly, and European fiscal issues are fermenting. There may be a short - term callback due to the realization of bullish factors, but in the medium term, it is recommended to go long on gold; for silver, it is advised to take profits [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to buy on dips; for aluminum, it is expected to continue the pattern of volatile strength, and it is recommended to buy on dips; for alumina, it is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend, and it is recommended to wait and see; for zinc, it is recommended to operate within a range and short on rallies; for lead, it is recommended to operate in a range, buying low and selling high; for industrial silicon, before the actual implementation of relevant policies, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 8000 - 9000; for lithium carbonate, the price is expected to fluctuate between 68,000 - 75,000, and it is recommended to wait and see; for polysilicon, pay attention to the progress of the state - purchase plan in September, be cautious about going long on near - month contracts, and pay attention to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity [2][3][4]. - For steel products, hold long positions in rebar; for iron ore, mainly wait and see; for coking coal, stop loss on short positions [4]. - For agricultural products, soybeans are in a short - term shock range; corn futures prices are expected to decline in shock; for sugar, short in the futures market and sell call options; for cotton, wait and see; for logs, wait and see; for palm oil, it is bullish in the medium term; for eggs, the spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, and the futures are expected to fluctuate; for pigs, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [6][7]. - For energy and chemical products, for PVC, it is recommended to hedge on rallies; for rubber, it is recommended to go long on dips in the medium term after the correction; for glass, it is expected to move up in shock, and it is recommended to go long with a light position; for crude oil, continue to short on rallies; for soda ash, wait and see; for caustic soda, it is recommended to go long [8][9]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Precious metal prices slightly corrected, and the market started partial profit - taking operations [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The US August core CPI was in line with expectations and previous values. The main drivers of overall price increases were automobile and service prices. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged and lowered the inflation forecast for 2027. Domestic gold ETF funds continued to flow out slightly. COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE gold inventory increased. Silver inventories in different regions showed different changes [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the medium term, it is recommended to go long on gold; for silver, it is advised to take profits [1]. 3.2 Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices were strong yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: US inflation data in August was slightly hot, and the initial jobless claims data was weaker than expected, strengthening the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The dollar index declined. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and copper smelting entered the maintenance season. Domestic weekly inventory decreased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Buy on dips [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.60% compared with the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. Consumption showed signs of recovery, and the weekly aluminum profile operating rate increased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is expected to continue the pattern of volatile strength. Pay attention to the implementation of interest rate cuts and inventory inflection points, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract increased by 0.41% compared with the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants that had been under maintenance resumed production, and the operating capacity continued to be released. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Overseas alumina prices fell sharply, and the domestic import window opened. The supply pressure continued to increase. It is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the SHFE zinc 2509 contract increased by 0.20% compared with the previous trading day. Social inventory increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply remained at a high level, and the import ore processing fee jumped. The expectation of the consumption peak season had not been fulfilled, and the operating rates of galvanizing and die - casting decreased. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory increased, but the LME inventory decreased, forming strong support [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Operate within a range and short on rallies [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the SHFE lead 2509 contract increased by 0.54% compared with the previous trading day. Social inventory decreased slightly [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of recycled lead decreased due to profit losses, and the supply tightened significantly. The consumption peak season was not prosperous, and the social inventory decreased slightly under the situation of weak supply and demand [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Operate in a range, buying low and selling high [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main contract showed a narrow - range shock and then a late - session rally. The position decreased, and the warehouse receipt volume increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the overall furnace - opening rate increased. Social and warehouse receipt inventories both increased slightly. On the demand side, the operating rate of polysilicon continued to increase, and the production of silicone and the operating rate of aluminum alloy increased slightly [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Before the actual implementation of relevant policies, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 8000 - 9000 [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract closed at 71,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.4% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of SMM electrolytic carbon decreased, and the basis weakened. The weekly output increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene and mica both increased. The demand for energy - storage cells exceeded expectations, and the production of lithium iron phosphate increased. It is expected to continue destocking in September [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 68,000 - 75,000. From the perspective of investment certainty, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main contract showed a narrow - range shock and then a late - session rally. The position decreased, and the warehouse receipt volume increased [4]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the weekly output increased slightly, and the industry inventory increased slightly. Downstream wafer and cell production in September was in line with expectations, but the photovoltaic installation demand market in the third quarter was pessimistic [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Pay attention to the progress of the state - purchase plan in September. Be cautious about going long on near - month contracts, and pay attention to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity [4]. 3.3 Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract closed at 3085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The apparent demand decreased, and the output decreased. The supply and demand of building materials were moderately weak, while the demand for plates was stable. The overall supply and demand of steel products were seasonally weak, with obvious structural differentiation [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Hold long positions. The reference range for RB01 is 3050 - 3130 [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract closed at 797.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Port inventory increased, and iron - water production increased. The supply and demand of iron ore were moderately strong, but the marginal situation weakened. The futures were at a discount, and the valuation was moderately high [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I01 is 775 - 805 [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract closed at 1133.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron - water production increased, but the steel mill's profit margin narrowed. The first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and there were still plans for further cuts. The overall inventory level decreased significantly, and the futures were at a premium [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Stop loss on short positions. The reference range for JM01 is 1100 - 1160 [4]. 3.4 Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose yesterday [6]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the near - term US soybean production decreased, and the long - term South American production was expected to increase. On the demand side, the demand for South American soybeans decreased, and there were concerns about the export demand for new - crop US soybeans [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, US soybeans are in a shock range; the domestic market is also expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the USDA report tonight, and the medium - term trend still depends on tariff policies [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The 2511 contract showed a narrow - range shock, and the spot price in North China accelerated its decline [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The weak wheat price suppressed the corn price. The auction of imported grains increased market supply, and the low transaction rate reflected weak market sentiment. The new - crop is expected to increase in production, and the cost has decreased significantly, suppressing the long - term price expectation [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The futures price is expected to decline in shock due to the pressure of new - crop listing [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5547 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.09% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, Brazil's sugar production was still high. Domestically, the relaxation of syrup control pressured the market. The short - term fermentation of syrup sentiment has basically ended, and the 01 contract will be below 5700 yuan/ton in the long term [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The overnight US cotton futures price closed flat, and the international crude oil price declined. The Zhengzhou cotton futures price stopped falling and rebounded [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, US cotton export sales decreased, and India's cotton ending inventory was raised. Domestically, the cotton production was adjusted upwards, which was in line with market expectations [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see, and mainly adopt a range strategy of 13800 - 14500 yuan/ton [6]. Logs - **Market Performance**: The 11 - contract closed at 804.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 0.25% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The 09 - contract was approaching the delivery month, and the position decreased rapidly. The current spot price was stable, and there was no obvious improvement in downstream demand [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose yesterday [7]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the production area was in the seasonal production - increasing cycle. On the demand side, the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased. Overall, the near - term inventory continued to accumulate [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: After the increase in P valuation, the trading difficulty increases, but it is bullish in the medium term. Pay attention to the production in the production area and biodiesel policies [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The 2511 contract showed a narrow - range shock, and the spot price increased [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The demand was boosted by the double - festival stocking, but the supply was sufficient. The feed price was low, and the cost center moved down [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: The spot egg price is expected to be strong in the short term, and the futures are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The 2511 contract showed a narrow - range shock, and the spot price increased slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: As the double festivals approached, consumption gradually recovered, but the supply was abundant. The policy was favorable, and attention should be paid to the recent symposium on pig production capacity regulation [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: The pig price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical Products PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 contract closed at 4888, an increase of 0.8% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: PVC inventory reached a new high, and the price oscillated at the bottom. New production capacity was put into operation, and the supply increased. The upstream operating rate was 78%, and there were maintenance plans in September. The downstream operating rate decreased, and the social inventory increased [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply and demand are in a weak balance. It is recommended to hedge on rallies [8]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: The rubber opened with a sharp decline and then rebounded in the afternoon. The RU2601 contract decreased by 0.31% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The purchase price of Thai rubber latex and cup lump changed slightly. The spot price decreased slightly. The operating rate of downstream tires increased significantly [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: After the correction, it is recommended to go long on dips in the medium term [8]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG01 contract closed at 1186, an increase of 0.5% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The glass average price was stable, and it entered the seasonal destocking cycle. The supply decreased year - on - year, and there were expectations of production resumption in September and October. The inventory decreased, and the downstream demand improved slightly [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is expected to move up in shock, and it is recommended to go long with a light position [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The oil price declined yesterday due to the IEA monthly report and EIA weekly report, as well as poor US employment data [9]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, OPEC+ plans to increase production, and other countries also have production - increasing potential. On the demand side, the gasoline consumption peak season has ended, and refineries in Europe and the US have entered the autumn maintenance season. There is a risk of global economic slowdown in Q4 [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. Continue to short on rallies, and pay attention to the short - selling opportunity of the SC main contract near 490 yuan/barrel [9]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA01 contract closed at 1287, an increase of 1.2% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The soda ash inventory was at a high level, and the supply and demand were in a weak balance. The upstream operating rate was 88%, and it would enter the high - production season in the fourth quarter. The downstream demand improved slightly [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply and demand are in a weak balance, and there is seasonal improvement in the fourth quarter. The driving force is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The SH01 contract closed at 2591, an increase of 0.7% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The price in Shandong was stable, and the national average price increased slightly. The supply - side operating rate was high, and the inventory was at a medium level. The non - aluminum demand recovered seasonally [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply and demand are healthy, and there is seasonal improvement. It is recommended to go long [9].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On September 10, the four major A-share stock indices all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.13% to 3,812.22 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.38% to 12,557.68 points, the ChiNext Index up 1.27% to 2,904.27 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 1.09% to 1,259.1 points. Market turnover was 2.004 trillion yuan, a decrease of 148.1 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, communication (+3.49%), electronics (+1.78%), and media (+1.68%) led the gains, while power equipment (-1.18%), comprehensive (-1.09%), and basic chemicals (-0.94%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IH > IF > IM > IC. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 2,440, 219, and 2,767 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had net inflows of 4.5 billion, - 5.8 billion, - 6.8 billion, and 8 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +32 billion, +17.3 billion, - 17 billion, and - 32.2 billion yuan respectively [2]. 2. Stock Index Futures - **Basis and Basis Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 141.57, 129.11, 22.56, and 3.39 points respectively, and the basis annualized yields were - 22.25%, - 21.16%, - 5.77%, and - 1.31% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 2%, 1%, 18%, and 32% respectively [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock indices as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips. In the short term, there are signs of market cooling [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On September 10, the yields of treasury bond futures all rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.416, up 2.78 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.645, up 3.23 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.812, up 4.25 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.202, up 4.38 bps [3]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2512 contract. For the two - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250012.IB, with a yield change of +1 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.007, and an IRR of 1.45%. For the five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year treasury bond futures, the relevant data are also provided [4]. - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 304 billion yuan and withdrew 229.1 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 74.9 billion yuan [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the upward shift in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - to - long term [4]. 4. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recent social activities and infrastructure construction have weak momentum [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market continues to oscillate at a high level, with the unexpected weakness of PPI further boosting the expectation of interest rate cuts. The logic of de - dollarization remains unchanged, and there are opportunities for long - positions in gold and short - term long - positions in silver [2]. - In the base metals market, copper prices have rebounded, and it is advisable to buy on dips; the electrolytic aluminum market is expected to be oscillatingly strong, and it is recommended to buy on dips; the alumina market is expected to be oscillatingly weak, and it is advisable to wait and see; zinc and lead are suitable for range trading; industrial silicon is expected to oscillate between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton; it is recommended to wait and see for lithium carbonate; polysilicon can focus on the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity; and it is advisable to buy on dips for tin [2][3][4]. - In the black industry, it is recommended to hold long - positions for rebar, wait and see for iron ore, and stop loss for short - positions in coking coal [5]. - In the agricultural products market, soybeans and soybean meal are expected to oscillate; corn futures are expected to oscillate and decline; it is advisable to short futures and sell call options for sugar; it is recommended to buy on dips for cotton; wait and see for logs; palm oil is expected to be short - term weak; eggs are expected to be short - term strong in spot and oscillating in futures; and it is recommended to wait and see for pigs [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE and PP are expected to be short - term oscillating and long - term supply - demand to be loose, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts or conduct month - spread reverse spreads; methanol has a weak reality and strong expectation; it is advisable to short crude oil on rallies; and it is advisable to short far - month contracts or short styrene profit on rallies for styrene [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: The market continues to oscillate at a high level. The US PPI in August was - 0.1% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3%. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond auction decreased significantly. Domestic gold ETF funds continued to flow in slightly. It is recommended to go long on gold [2]. - **Silver**: It followed gold's sharp rise. As it entered the US critical minerals list, it faces the threat of increased tariffs, with short - term long - position opportunities [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price rebounded to above 80,000 yuan and $10,000. The supply of copper ore is tight, and it is advisable to buy on dips [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The price increased by 0.34% compared with the previous trading day. The supply is stable, and downstream consumption is recovering. It is expected to be oscillatingly strong, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina**: The price decreased by 2.43% compared with the previous trading day. The supply pressure is increasing, and it is expected to be oscillatingly weak. It is advisable to wait and see [2][3]. - **Zinc**: The price increased by 0.36% compared with the previous trading day. The supply is high, and the consumption peak season expectation has not been fulfilled. It is suitable for range trading and short - positions on rallies [3]. - **Lead**: The price decreased by 0.65% compared with the previous trading day. The supply is tightened, and the consumption is weak. It is suitable for range - bound trading [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price rebounded. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving slightly. It is expected to oscillate between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price decreased by 3.0%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is also increasing. It is recommended to wait and see due to uncertain market news [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The price increased slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand from the photovoltaic industry is uncertain. It can focus on the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity [4]. - **Tin**: The price rose significantly. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is driven by the semiconductor industry. It is advisable to buy on dips [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the 2601 contract increased. The supply and demand of building materials are weakly neutral, and the plate demand is stable. It is recommended to hold long - positions [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the 2601 contract increased. The supply and demand are neutrally strong, but the marginal situation is slightly weakening. It is advisable to wait and see [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the 2601 contract increased. The supply and demand are weakening, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to stop loss for short - positions [5][6]. Agricultural Products Market - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybeans are oscillating. The near - term US soybean production is shrinking, and the far - term South American production is expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. - **Corn**: The 2511 contract is weakly operating. The wheat price suppresses the corn price, and the new crop is expected to increase in production. The futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [6]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract increased slightly. The Brazilian sugar production is high, and the domestic syrup control is being relaxed. It is advisable to short futures and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price rebounded. The Brazilian cotton harvest progress is slightly behind, and the Indian cotton quality may be affected by weather. The domestic cotton price stopped falling and rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - **Logs**: The 11 contract increased slightly. The spot price is stable, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is advisable to wait and see [6][7]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price decreased. The supply is in the seasonal increase period, and the demand is decreasing. It is short - term weak [7]. - **Eggs**: The 2511 contract is weakly operating. The demand may increase seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Pigs**: The 2511 contract rebounded slightly. The supply is abundant, and the consumption is gradually recovering. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE**: The price is oscillating slightly. The domestic supply is increasing, and the demand is improving. It is short - term oscillating, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts or conduct month - spread reverse spreads in the long - term [8]. - **Methanol**: The price increased by 0.38%. The cost is supported, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is not in the peak season. It has a weak reality and strong expectation [8][9]. - **PP**: The price is oscillating slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season. It is short - term oscillatingly weak, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts or conduct month - spread reverse spreads in the long - term [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The price strengthened slightly. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening. It is advisable to short on rallies [9]. - **Styrene**: The price is oscillating slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is short - term oscillatingly weak, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts or short styrene profit on rallies in the long - term [10].

金融研究 2025年9月10日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：9 月 日，A 股四大股指有所下跌，其中上证指数下跌 0.51%，报收 点；深成指 9 3807.29 | | --- | --- | | | 下跌 1.23%，报收 12510.6 点；创业板指下跌 2.23%，报收 2867.97 点；科创 50 指数下跌 2.38%， | | | 报收 1245.53 点。市场成交 21,521 亿元，较前日减少 3,111 亿元。行业板块方面，房地产(+1.64%)， | | | 综合(+0.94%)，银行(+0.83%)涨幅居前；电子(-2.7%)，计算机(-2.07%)，通信(-1.91%)跌幅居前。 | | | 从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,298/118/4,009。沪深两市，机构、主力、大 | | 股指期货 | 户、散户全天资金分别净流入-274、-231、103、403 亿元，分别变动-130、-84、+48、+166 亿元。 | | | 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 125.43、115.37、17.06 与 ...

2025年09月10日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | 贵 | 市场表现：贵金属整体继续走强，美国非农数据下修支撑美联储降息预期。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金 | 基本面：以色列袭击位于卡塔尔的哈马斯高层；美国非农年度修正比预期还差，下修 | 91.1 | 万；特朗普表示期 | 属 | 待在接下来的几周里与印度总理莫迪进行会谈；美国最高法院表示将在 | 11 | 月辩论会的第一周听取特朗普灌水 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 按口头辩论。国内黄金 | ETF | 资金流入，COMEX | 黄金库存 | 1210 | 吨，减少 | 1 | 吨；上期所黄金库存 | 44 | 吨，增加 | 1 ...

2025年09月09日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 市场表现：贵金属继续走强，欧洲政治风险发酵。 金 属 基本面：特朗普称准备对俄罗斯实施第二阶段制裁；法国总理下台，日本首相辞职，30 年期国债收益率飙升 至历史高位。国内黄金 ETF 资金流入，COMEX 黄金库存 1211 吨，维持不变；上期所黄金库存 43 吨，维持 不变；伦敦 7 月黄金库存 8774 吨；上期所白银库存 1261 吨，减少 4 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1283 吨， 增加 1.7 吨，COMEX 白银库存 16121 吨，增加 30 吨；伦敦 7 月白银库存增加 408 吨至 24196 吨；印度 7 月白银进口约 340 吨左右。全球最大白银 etf--iShares 持有量为 15193 吨，减少 36 吨。 交易策略：美联储独立性受质疑，去美元化逻辑未变，美联储降息概率大增，整体建议黄金做多；白银再次 跟随黄金大涨，随着进入美国关键矿物名单，面临增加关税威胁，短线存在做多机会。 风险提示：贸易战反复，美国经济恢复超预期 基本金属 | | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

金融研究 2025年9月8日 星期一 表 1：股指期现货市场表现 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅% | 现价 | 涨跌 | 成交量 | 成交额 | 持仓量 | 日增仓量 | 结算价 | 基差 | 基差年化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | | | 收益率% | | IC2509 | 中证 2509 | 4.41 | 6898.6 | 291.4 | 97724 | 13244334 | 113160 | -12722 | 6876.8 | 15.4 | -5.0 | | IC2510 | 中证 2510 | 4.50 | 6846.2 | 295.0 | 9240 | 1245365 | 12752 | 1067 | 6831.2 | 67.8 | -9.8 | | IC2512 | 中证 2512 | 4.68 | 6738.2 | 301.0 | 47120 | 6236322 | 85904 | -885 | 6719.6 | 175.8 | -9 ...

期货研究报告 | 商品研究 天然橡胶海外供应专题-产量天花板在哪？ 2025年9月4日 • 招商期货-罗鸣 • luoming @cmschina.com.cn • 联系电话： 19854498995 • 执业资格号： Z0021358 来源：ANPRC，招商期货 目录 01 泰国（约35%） 02 印尼（约17%） contents 03 科特迪瓦（约14%） 天然橡胶全球产量分布 期货研究报告 | 商品研究 天然橡胶生产国联合会（简称ANRPC），成立于1970年10月，是政府间社会组织，秘书处位于马来西亚吉隆坡。其宗旨为协调成员国 间天然橡胶生产合作与技术升级，稳定市场价格，成员包括孟加拉国、柬埔寨、中国、印度、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、缅甸、巴布 亚新几内亚、菲律宾、新加坡、斯里兰卡、泰国及越南13国组成。天然橡胶产能供应集中度较高，东南亚的气候和土壤条件非常适 合天然橡胶种植，ANPRC成员国涵盖了全球大部分天然橡胶主产国。近年来，由于科特迪瓦的产量快速增长与东南亚传统生成国的增 长乏力，ANPRC成员国全球天然橡胶产量占比从2010年的88%降至2024年的79%，未来五年可能进一步跌破75%。 0 ...

2025年09月08日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | | | | | 市场表现：贵金属继续走强，非农数据远低于预期引发进一步降息预期。 | | | | | | | | | | 金 | 基本面：8 | | 月非农就业增长意外降温，仅增加 | | | 2.2 万人；6 | | | | 月份的就业数据向下修正至负增长；OPEC"原则 | | | | | 属 | 上同意"10 | | 月再次增产。国内黄金 | | ETF | 资金流入，COMEX | | 黄金库存 | | 1211 | 吨，维持不变；上期所黄金库存 | | | | | 43 | 吨，维持不变；伦敦 | | 7 月黄金库存 | 8774 | 吨；上期所白银库存 | | | 1265 | 吨，增加 | 5 吨，金交所白银库存上周 | | | | | 库存 | 1283 吨，增加 | 1.7 ...