黑色供应周报-铁合金 2025年10月17日 中泰期货研究所 黑色分析师:董雪珊 本相告所载的资料、观点及预测均反映了本公司在最初发布该报告当日分析师的判断、是基于本公司分析师认为可靠且已公开的信息，本公司力求但不探证 这些信息的挺确性和完整性,也不保证文中观点或陈述不会发生任何变更,在不同时期,本公司可在不发出通知的情况下发出与本报告所载资料、意见政推 测不一致的报告，亦可因使用不同假设和标准、采用不同观点和分析方法而与本公司其他业务部门、单位或附属机构在制作类似的其他材料时所给出的意见 不同或者相反。本公司并不承担提示本报告的收件人注意该等材料的 责任。 14 20 18 13 16 12 14 11 12 10 10 8 y 6 4 2 下载 8 下午餐早餐加盟 早餐早餐店加盟 早餐早餐加盟 早餐早餐加盟 早餐早餐加盟 早餐 累计同比(右轴) 2023 -2021 2022 2024 ·2025 累计同比(右轴) 2022 2024 -2021 - 2023 2025 内蒙古-硅锰日均产量:万吨 内蒙古-硅铁日均产量:万吨 1.60 0.65 1.50 0.60 1.40 0.55 1.30 0.50 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a shrinking volume and oscillating trend on Thursday, with inflation data basically in line with expectations. Fiscal policy may enter a bottleneck period, and there is a strong necessity for an increase in monetary policy in the fourth quarter [6]. - The steel market is expected to oscillate or experience a "golden nine, silver ten" season without a peak. The supply and demand of steel are imbalanced, with weak downstream demand and high inventory in some varieties [10]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, cost, and macro - policies. Different commodities have different trends and investment strategies [3][6][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. The A - share market was in a shrinking volume and oscillating state on Thursday. Inflation data was basically in line with expectations, and fiscal policy may face a bottleneck, while the necessity of increasing monetary policy in the fourth quarter is strong [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Adopt an oscillating strategy and pay attention to the odds of short - term bonds [7]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market may oscillate or experience a "golden nine, silver ten" season without a peak. The downstream demand for steel is weak, and the inventory of some varieties is high. Iron ore can hold short positions or reduce positions on dips [10][11]. - **Coal and Coke**: The prices of coal and coke are expected to oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to the demand of finished products during the "golden nine, silver ten" period [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: From the perspective of supply and demand, silicon alloys are in a medium - long - term short - biased logic, but from the cost - profit perspective, they are in a low - valuation range. Consider buying on dips [13]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, maintain a short - biased view and wait for the actual progress of new production capacity. For glass, adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the improvement of peak - season demand and other factors [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. Alumina prices are expected to continue to decline, and it is advisable to sell on rallies [18]. - **Zinc**: Hold short positions. The domestic zinc market has weak spot trading, and the price may follow the external market [18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the supply increasing and the demand supporting the price [20]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range. Consider selling call options [21]. - **Polysilicon**: It will continue to oscillate within a narrow range. Pay attention to the progress of the industry meeting [22]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies due to increasing supply pressure and weak demand [24]. - **Sugar**: The end - of - season inventory data is bearish, and the supply is expected to increase. Adopt a short - selling strategy with rolling operations [26]. - **Eggs**: The supply and demand of eggs are in a loose state. Adopt a short - biased strategy for near - term contracts and pay attention to spot price changes [27]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the impact of rainfall on the quality of new - season apples [29]. - **Corn**: Consider buying the 07 contract on dips or selling out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. Pay attention to the supply pressure and the purchase of state - owned grain depots [29]. - **Jujubes**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. Pay attention to the price game between buyers and sellers and the procurement progress [31]. - **Hogs**: Hold short positions in near - term contracts and consider the 1 - 3 positive spread strategy [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The supply exceeds demand, and the price center is moving down. Hold existing short positions and expect price recovery in the future [34]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the oil price, with a loose supply - demand structure [35]. - **Plastic**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. Wait for a rebound to go short [36]. - **Methanol**: The market is volatile. Wait for a rebound to go long in small quantities [38]. - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price is expected to oscillate due to the short - term strength of the fundamentals and the weakness of alumina [39]. - **Asphalt**: The price follows the oil price, and the actual demand is weak during the peak season [40]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The supply is abundant, and a long - term short - biased view is maintained [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: Observe the de - stocking of ports and spot transactions. Consider buying the 01 contract on dips [45]. - **Urea**: Adopt an oscillating strategy and pay attention to changes in cost and supply [46]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The fundamentals are not substantially strengthened, and it is expected to oscillate weakly following the cost [42].

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 10 月 16 日 2.详情请查看下文或扫描二维码查看中泰期货股份有限公司公众号宏观视点、商品看点栏目。 基于量化指标研判 | 偏空 | 震荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | 豆粕 | 豆二 | | 沪金 | 菜粕 | 豆油 | | 棕榈油 | 沪铝 | 橡胶 | | 白糖 | 沪铅 | 玉米 | | 沪银 | 焦煤 | 甲醇 | | 沪铜 | 热轧卷板 | 鸡蛋 | | 沪锡 | 玉米淀粉 | 铁矿石 | | | 聚丙烯 | | | | 郑棉 | | | | 菜油 | | | | 螺纹钢 | | | | PVC | | | | PTA | | | | 焦炭 | | | | 玻璃 | | | | 锰硅 | | | | 塑料 | | | | 沥青 | | | | 沪锌 | | | 备注： | | | 1.趋势判断观点主要基于各品种的量价等技术指标因素。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 晨会纪要 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

2025.10. 15 原木周报 中泰期货股份有限公司 高萍 从业资格号：F3002581 交易咨询证号：Z0012806 目录 CONTENTS 1 原木综述 2 原木平衡表解析 3 原木供需解析 4 原木成本利润 5 原木价格与价差 4 1.2 原木综述——需求与库存端 | | 项目 | | 单位 | 2025/10/1 0 | 2025/9/26 | 2024/9/13 | 环比 | 预估下周/月 同比 根据三方数据线性预估 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 需求 | 周度出货量 | 全国 | | 40.11 | 45.9 | 44.52 | -5.81 | -4.41 持稳 | 现货市场无节材、集成材出货成交稍好，锯材厂 订单相对低迷，且无集中大单。短期建议观察终 端订单情况。 | | | | 山东 | | 24.08 | 24.1 | 19.18 | 0 | 4.9 | | | | | 江苏 | 万方 | 12.53 | 18.4 | 20.51 | -5.88 | -7.98 | | | | ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 10 月 15 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/10/15 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 原木 液化石油气 | 原油 三十债 | 二债 十债 | | | | | 合成橡胶 | 烧碱 | 五债 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 锌 | 燃油 | 甲醇 | | | | | 棉花 | 沥青 | 苹果 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 氧化铝 | 尿素 | 上证50股指期货 | | | 客服电话： | | 橡胶 | 焦煤 | | | | | | 棉纱 | 焦炭 | | | | 400-618-6767 | | 短纤 | 铝 | | | | | | 乙二醇 | 碳酸锂 | | | | 公司网址： | | PTA | 白糖 | | | | | | ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 10 月 14 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/10/14 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 锌 | 工业硅 | 苹果 | | | | | 白糖 | 多晶硅 | 纸浆 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 棉花 | 五债 | 甲醇 | | | | | 棉纱 | 三十债 | 上证50股指期货 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 对二甲苯 | 燃油 | | | | | | PTA | 十债 | | | | 客服电话： | | 橡胶 | 沥青 | | | | | | 瓶片 | 二债 | | | | 400-618-6767 | | 合成橡胶 | 胶版印刷纸 | | | | | | 乙二醇 | 原木 | | | | 公司网址： | | 短纤 | 铁矿石 ...

贸易摩擦升级，价格波动放大 沪铜周度报告·2025年10月13日 姓名：安冉 从业资格号：F3049294 交易咨询证书号：Z0017020 姓名：王海聪 从业资格号：F03101206 交易咨询证书号：Z0022465 联系人：陈天敏 从业资格号：F03134700 目 录 01 周度综述：宏观/周度数据/多空逻辑/风险提示 02 铜产业链解析：价格/价差/成本/利润/供给/需求/库存 CONTENTS 资金持仓：外盘持仓CFTC/LME 03 Part 01 周度综述 | | 项目 | | | | | 周度数据 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 上期 | 当期 | 环比 | 环比率 | 综述 | | | 铜精矿现货TC（美元/ 吨 ） | -40 8 . | -40 36 . | 0 .44 | 1.08% | 周内正值国庆假期 铜精矿现货市场成交较为冷清 后续重点关注11月长单谈判的结 ， ， 果 。 | | 供给端 | 精废价差（元/吨） | 2085 | 3187 | 1,101 | 52 81% . | 节后铜价大幅走高 再生铜 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 1.趋势判断观点主要基于各品种的基本面等因素。 2.详情请查看下文或扫描二维码查看中泰期货股份有限公司公众号宏观视点、商品看点栏目。 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 晨会纪要 2025 年 10 月 13 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/10/13 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | | 液化石油气 | 工业硅 | 二债 | | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 铝 | 沥青 | 五债 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 纸浆 | 多晶硅 | 十债 | | | | | 氧化铝 | 碳酸锂 | 三十债 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 原油 | 玉米 | | | | | | 铁矿石 | 红枣 | | | | 客服电话： | | 锌 | 苹果 | | | | | | 螺纹 ...

天津港锰矿库存周报 (天津振鸿口径) 65 55 45 35 25 r 2017 - 12 - 1 工作的是一个不可能的一个人 天津港锰矿库存:氧化矿(加蓬+澳矿):万吨 天津港锰矿入库:氧化矿(加蓬+澳矿):万吨 天津港锰矿出库:氧化矿(加蓬+澳矿):万吨 25 180 35 160 30 20 140 25 120 15 20 100 80 15 10 60 10 40 5 5 20 8422808 工学科研学学院学学学学学 一个 2 00000 1 - t 20 NOFNIF (0) (0) 2025 2023 2024 2023 2024 2025 2024 天津港锰矿出库:南非半碳酸粉+块:万吨 天津港锰矿库存:南非半碳酸粉+块:万吨 天津港锰矿入库:南非半碳酸粉+块:万吨 300 25 40 35 250 30 200 25 15 20 150 10 15 100 10 50 基礎的意思想出版与英语音音的书学生思念了 下午夜的第一位号号： 2017年 12月 2017年 12月 2017 11:52:38 下午前的十分都是一点的一个 下载 8 2023 2024 2023 2024 2024 20 ...

中泰期货研究所 黑色分析师:董雪珊 从业资格号:F3075616 交易咨询从业证书号 Z0018025 黑色供应周报-铁合金 2025年10月10日 全国硅铁周度产量:万吨 14 20 18 13 16 12 14 11 IS 10 10 8 9 6 4 2 下载 8 下午餐早餐加盟 早餐早餐店加盟 早餐早餐加盟 早餐早餐加盟 早餐早餐加盟 早餐 累计同比(右轴) 2023 -2021 2022 2024 ·2025 累计同比(右轴) 2022 2024 -2021 - 2023 2025 内蒙古-硅锰日均产量:万吨 内蒙古-硅铁日均产量:万吨 1.60 0.65 1.50 0.60 1.40 0.55 1.30 0.50 1.20 0.45 1.10 0.40 1.00 0.35 0.90 0.80 0.30 一个目标。 2017年 12月 12月 12月 12日 12時 12時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 1000 下されるなど、そこではなくなるとなると、そのことではない。 ここではなかったときになるとことできる。 このことではない。 2022 ...