1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market showed a strong upward trend on Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 16 consecutive positive days and breaking through the 4100-point mark. The market turnover exceeded 3.1 trillion yuan, indicating a high level of market activity. The overall economic climate in China is improving, with the CPI and PPI showing positive trends, and the PMI indices rising above the expansion range [15]. - Different commodity futures have various trends and investment suggestions. For example, in the black sector, it is expected to be in a short - term shock and medium - long - term bottom - building state; in the agricultural product sector, different products such as cotton, sugar, and eggs have their own supply - demand situations and price trends [18][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The State Council's Anti - monopoly and Anti - unfair Competition Committee Office will investigate and evaluate the market competition in the food delivery platform service industry. Meituan, Taobao Flash Delivery, and JD Delivery will cooperate actively [8]. - China declared multiple satellite constellation plans to the ITU in the last week of 2025, with a total scale of over 200,000 satellites [8]. - The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in January 2026 is completely dashed. The US non - farm payrolls data in December 2025 was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased, reducing the possibility of an interest rate cut [8]. - The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of fiscal and financial policies to promote domestic demand, including loan discount policies and risk - sharing mechanisms [9]. - In December 2025, China's CPI and core CPI increased year - on - year, and the PPI decline narrowed. The CPI and PPI both increased month - on - month [9]. - The regulatory authorities have issued new policy guidance on real estate financing, allowing loans for projects on the "white list" to be extended for up to 5 years [9]. - China has made a major breakthrough in the extraction and separation technology of salt lake lithium resources, improving the lithium ion recovery rate and reducing costs and energy consumption [9]. - DeepSeek plans to launch a new flagship AI model V4 around the Chinese New Year in mid - February, which shows better performance in code generation than existing mainstream models [10]. - The AGI - Next Frontier Summit believes that the competition in large models has shifted from the "Chat" to the "Agent" stage [10]. - Fund companies and sales institutions have received a notice on the implementation of regulations on the sales fees of publicly offered securities investment funds, with three key points attracting attention [10]. - The price of storage chips has skyrocketed, and tech giants are competing for DRAM supplies. The price of 8GB DDR4 memory has increased by more than 5 times in a year [11]. - The US Supreme Court has not made a ruling on Trump's tariffs, and the next announcement is on January 14. The government is prepared to re - implement tariffs if necessary [11]. - Trump has cancelled the second wave of military strikes against Venezuela, maintained the deployment of US ships, and plans to buy $200 billion in mortgage - backed securities to lower mortgage rates [11]. - Trump has called for setting a 10% cap on credit card interest rates for one year starting from January 20, but the feasibility is uncertain [12]. - Trump discussed with oil company executives how to rebuild Venezuela's oil industry and announced that the US will start refining and selling up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil [12]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to consider following the trend, but be cautious about chasing highs due to the recent large short - term gains. The A - share market has been rising strongly, and the economic climate is improving, with the stock index breaking through the previous shock platform [14][15]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The strategy is to flatten the yield curve. The money market is balanced, and the bond market sentiment has declined. The central bank's monetary policy shows a retreat trend, and fiscal subsidy policies for consumption have been announced [16]. 3.3 Black Sector 3.3.1 Spiral Steel Rebar and Iron Ore - From a policy perspective, there is no new demand - side policy, and the supply - side policy interference for the steel industry is low, which is relatively negative for finished products and steel mill profits. - Fundamentally, the steel demand is under seasonal pressure, and the supply is relatively stable with low profits. The inventory has started to accumulate, and in the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate and be in a medium - long - term bottom - building state [18]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate and rise in the short term. The supply side of coal has disturbances, and the downstream demand support has declined. The potential negative feedback risk still restricts the price increase, and the rebound space may be limited [20]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are still bearish, but the cost side may have a phased positive impact. It is recommended to control positions, hold short positions in silicomanganese at high levels, and temporarily observe ferrosilicon [21]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply is at a high level, and attention should be paid to new production capacity and cost - side expectations. - For glass, a long - holding strategy or partial profit - taking at high prices can be considered. The market sentiment has been boosted, and attention should be paid to cold repair and downstream purchasing sentiment [22]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Shanghai Zinc - Domestic zinc inventories are increasing, and the supply is expected to increase slightly in January. The demand is still resilient but is expected to weaken compared to December. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short at high prices [24][25]. 3.4.2 Shanghai Lead - The fundamentals of lead are weak, with low downstream demand. Although the lead price may rebound before delivery, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation dragging down the price. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [26]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals show signs of weakening, but the production resumption expectation is reduced due to mine disruptions. The long - term demand is positive, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [27]. 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon - The downstream demand has phased policy - driven support for export rush. The previous oversupply expectation needs time to verify the turn, and the disk is expected to fluctuate strongly but is still under upward pressure [28]. 3.4.5 Polysilicon - It is possible to try to buy at low prices with cautious positions. The market is worried about changes in the industrial pattern after the regulatory meeting, and the export tax - rebate cancellation policy may drive an export rush in the first quarter [28][29]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The contradiction between pre - festival restocking and declining开工 leads to a short - term downward trend. Attention should be paid to the USDA report and the next target price subsidy policy [32][33]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The domestic sugar market is in a season of both strong supply and demand. The price is under pressure but also supported, and it is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - price range. The global sugar market still faces an oversupply situation [34][35]. 3.5.3 Eggs - The 02 - 03 contracts of eggs are currently at a discount to the spot price and are driven by the short - term strength of the spot market. However, as the inventory of laying hens is still high and the post - holiday demand may decline, the upside space is limited. The futures contracts are in a near - strong and far - weak contango pattern [36]. 3.5.4 Apples - The supply side has the characteristics of "less quantity and poor quality" and low inventory, while the demand side is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and high - quality products may remain stable. The market may show a strong trend if the demand decline is controlled during the Spring Festival [37]. 3.5.5 Corn - The short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The key to the price trend lies in the change of farmers' selling sentiment. Although there are some negative factors, the probability of a "panic selling" before the Spring Festival is low. Attention should be paid to the selling situation in March [38]. 3.5.6 Red Dates - The current market is in an oversupply situation, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sales situation during the consumption peak season [39]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The consumption in the first half of January lacks significant improvement. It is expected that large - scale enterprises will resume slaughter in the middle of the month, and the spot price may decline. The main futures contract should be shorted at high prices [39][40]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Venezuela is expected to resume oil exports, but the geopolitical situation in Iran has heated up again, bringing support to oil prices. Although the fundamentals show an oversupply situation, the geopolitical premium still exists [43]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is mainly driven by geopolitical and macro factors and will follow the trend of crude oil prices. The supply - demand relationship has improved marginally, and the focus is on the Iranian situation and the potential substitution role of fuel oil [44]. 3.6.3 Plastics - The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the downstream demand is weak. Although the upstream production enterprises are suffering losses, which may provide some support, there is no strong upward - driving force. It is recommended to adopt a shock - trading strategy and beware of回调 risks [44][45]. 3.6.4 Rubber - The short - term international macro environment and trading system may increase capital participation, but the lack of obvious supply - demand contradictions may limit the upward space. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - long opportunities during回调 can be considered [45]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - The short - term sentiment fluctuates significantly. It is advisable to wait and see if there are no positions. The price is under pressure due to the decline of downstream products and poor high - price transactions [46][47]. 3.6.6 Methanol - The current supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly, but the inventory is still relatively high, and there is a possibility of further accumulation at the end of the month. In the long term, the fundamentals are improving, and long positions in far - month contracts can be gradually considered [48]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market follows the general trend of the commodity futures market and has weak fundamentals. The cost has decreased, and the futures price should be treated with a wide - range shock strategy [49]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - The short - term price fluctuation of asphalt may increase due to raw material factors. The future focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. The price of asphalt has stabilized after the increase [49][50]. 3.6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - In the short term, the price will fluctuate with the cost. PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads can be considered. The supply - demand relationship of each product in the polyester chain shows different trends, and the overall rebound height is restricted by the terminal negative feedback [51]. 3.6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Affected by the Iranian geopolitical conflict, the price of LPG has increased. The import cost provides support, and the demand is in the peak season. It still has some rebound momentum, but it is recommended to wait and see and not chase the rise [52][53]. 3.6.11 Pulp - The spot market trading sentiment is weakening, and the disk faces hedging pressure. However, the fundamentals are stable, and the external market price is strong, providing support for the domestic price. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. 3.6.12 Logs - The fundamentals are weakly bearish, and the spot price has temporarily stabilized. The market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the disk is expected to fluctuate [55]. 3.6.13 Urea - The coal price has increased, and the spot market trading of urea has weakened. After the price reduction, the trading of some factories is acceptable. The futures price maintains a shock trend [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, the report provides trend judgments for various futures products including trend空头, 震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, and 趋势多头 [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, it also gives trend judgments of偏空, 震荡, and 偏多 for different products [4]. - In the macro - financial sector, for stock index futures, it is recommended to consider following the trend; for treasury bond futures, the strategy is to flatten the yield curve [11][12]. - In the black sector, steel products may have a mid - term oscillating trend, and it is suggested to hold short positions in iron ore at high levels or short at highs; for coking coal and coke, the prices may oscillate and rise in the short - term; for ferroalloys, silicon iron may fluctuate after a sharp decline, and manganese silicon is bearish in the medium - term; for soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see, while for glass, it is recommended to hold long positions or partially realize profits at high levels [14][16][17][18]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, lithium carbonate prices may oscillate strongly in the short - term; industrial silicon is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to consider shorting at highs or selling out - of - the - money call options; for polysilicon, it is necessary to operate cautiously as the downward adjustment of premium may not be over [20][21][22]. - In the agricultural products sector, cotton may decline in the short - term; sugar is in a season of both supply and demand, and it is recommended to trade in the low - value range; for eggs, the near - term contracts have limited upside, while the far - term contracts in the second quarter are supported by expectations; apples may be strong on the futures market; corn may oscillate strongly in the short - term; jujubes are expected to oscillate; for live pigs, the spot price may decline in the middle and late January, and it is advisable to be bearish on the futures main contract at high levels [24][26][28][30][32][34]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices may oscillate without new events; fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices; polyolefins are expected to be weak in the supply - demand aspect and should be treated with an oscillating view; rubber may oscillate, and it is advisable to look for short - term long opportunities on pullbacks; methanol's fundamentals are improving in the long - term, and long positions in far - month contracts can be considered gradually; caustic soda futures should be treated with a wide - range oscillating view; asphalt prices may fluctuate more greatly in the short - term, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game; for the polyester industry chain, it is advisable to consider the positive spread between May and September contracts of PX and PTA; for liquefied petroleum gas, there is support but limited upward space; pulp is advisable to wait and see; logs are expected to oscillate; urea futures may oscillate weakly [36][37][38][39][40][41][43][44][45][46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - Two major energy central enterprises, Sinopec Group and China National Aviation Fuel Group, are officially reorganized, aiming to reduce costs and promote high - quality development of the industrial chain [6]. - Gold has become the world's largest reserve asset for the first time in 30 years, with the value of overseas official gold reserves reaching $3.93 trillion, exceeding that of US Treasury bonds [6]. - US President Trump agrees to promote a bill to strengthen sanctions against Russia. China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning states that normal Sino - Russian economic and trade cooperation should not be interfered with [6]. - Guangzhou formulates a plan to build an advanced manufacturing powerhouse, accelerating the cultivation of strategic leading industries and emerging pillar industries [6]. - The market supervision department约谈 the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and six polysilicon leading enterprises to prevent monopoly [7]. - Four ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology call for regulating the power and energy storage battery industry to prevent over - capacity [7]. - TSMC raises the price of 3nm chips and suspends new 3nm projects due to full orders [7]. - Trump expects the US to "manage" Venezuela and increase the military budget from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion in fiscal year 2027 [7]. - The US Supreme Court will rule on the legality of Trump's tariff policy. If the Trump administration loses, importers may demand a refund of about $150 billion in tariffs [8]. - The US Treasury Secretary hopes to lower interest rates, and a Fed governor expects a 150 - basis - point rate cut in 2026, which may create about one million jobs without causing inflation [8]. - The US Congressional Budget Office predicts that the US GDP growth rate will accelerate to 2.2% in 2026, with a PCE inflation rate of 2.7% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2028, and the unemployment rate will drop to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2028, and the Fed interest rate will drop to 3.4% in Q4 2026 [8]. - In October 2025, the US trade deficit narrowed by 39% month - on - month to $29.4 billion, with exports increasing by 2.6% and imports decreasing by 3.2% [8]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week rose to 208,000, slightly lower than expected, and the number of layoffs in December last year was 35,553, the lowest in 17 months [9]. - Ukraine and the US are close to finalizing a bilateral security agreement [9]. - Crude oil prices rose due to geopolitical tensions in Iran and Venezuela, with the US crude oil main contract rising 4.3% to $58.4 per barrel and Brent crude rising 4.57% to $62.7 per barrel [9]. 3.2 Macro - Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market had a narrow - range consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.07% but still having 15 consecutive positive lines, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.51%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.82%. The market turnover was 2.83 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance in the A - share market reached 2604.7 billion yuan, a record high [11]. - The manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMIs in December were all in the expansion range, indicating an overall improvement in China's economic climate. The stock index continued to rise with increasing volume, but there may be a possibility of rhythm adjustment [11]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The money market tightened, and the bond market rebounded due to the slowdown of the stock index's rise and the sharp correction of commodities. The central bank's policy showed a retreat trend in terms of monetary policy, but the bond market was still optimistic [12]. 3.3 Black Sector 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - From a policy perspective, there is less interference in the steel industry, and the production - side policy interference is low. In terms of fundamentals, the demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is good. The supply of steel mills has a low possibility of negative feedback in the short - term, and inventory is accumulating. The valuation of the steel futures is reasonable [14]. - The demand for iron ore has support for winter replenishment, but the supply is high, showing a loose supply - demand situation. Steel products may oscillate in the medium - term, and it is advisable to hold short positions in iron ore at high levels or short at highs [14][15]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and rise in the short - term, but are restricted by factors such as coal production, safety supervision, and downstream winter storage. In the medium - term, the domestic mine start - up rate has a theoretical upper limit, and there are potential negative feedback risks in the short - term [16]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - The prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon fell sharply. Silicon iron may fluctuate after the sharp decline, and manganese silicon is bearish in the medium - term. The decline is due to the increase in hedging by manufacturers and the departure of long - position funds [17]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash is relatively weak, and the supply is at a high level. It is advisable to wait and see. Glass is relatively strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions or partially realize profits at high levels. The key is to pay attention to the new production capacity of soda ash and the cold - repair of glass production lines [18]. 3.4 Non - ferrous and New Materials 3.4.1 Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the price may oscillate strongly. Although the demand in January decreased, the actual demand is still strong, and the inventory is starting to accumulate, but the accumulation range is limited [20]. 3.4.2 Industrial Silicon - It is expected to be weak due to the planned production cuts of downstream polysilicon manufacturers, and it is advisable to consider shorting at highs or selling out - of - the - money call options [21]. 3.4.3 Polysilicon - The downward adjustment of premium may not be over. After the market supervision department's约谈, the market is worried about changes in the industrial pattern. The spot price may still be supported by the production cuts of large manufacturers [22]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - In the short - term, it may decline due to factors such as poor export data, technical pressure, and profit - taking. In the long - term, the supply may decrease, which is beneficial to the price. Currently, the supply is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday replenishment and the decline of pre - holiday production [24][25]. 3.5.2 Sugar - It is in a season of both supply and demand. Globally, there is an oversupply of sugar, but the domestic market has cost support and pre - holiday demand. It is recommended to trade in the low - value range [26][27]. 3.5.3 Eggs - The spot price is in the pre - holiday seasonal increase stage, driving the near - term futures contracts to be strong, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the upside is limited. The far - term contracts in the second quarter are supported by expectations [28][29]. 3.5.4 Apples - The futures market may be strong. Currently, the apple market has limited transactions in the production areas and slow sales in the sales areas. The key is to pay attention to the price changes in the sales areas [30]. 3.5.5 Corn - In the short - term, it may oscillate strongly. The key is the farmers' selling sentiment. Before the Spring Festival, the probability of a "panic - selling" is low, and the price is likely to oscillate within a range [30][31]. 3.5.6 Jujubes - It is expected to oscillate. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable, and the key is to pay attention to the sales performance in the peak consumption season [32][33]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The consumption in the first half of January lacks significant improvement, and the spot price may decline in the middle and late January. It is advisable to be bearish on the futures main contract at high levels [34]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector 3.6.1 Crude Oil - The market is concerned about the political situation in Iran and Venezuela. Although OPEC has suspended production resumption in the first quarter, the probability of future production increase is high. Without new events, the price may oscillate [36]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The price is affected by geopolitical and macro - economic factors and will follow the trend of crude oil prices. The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but there is no strong driving force [37]. 3.6.3 Polyolefins - The supply pressure is large, and the downstream demand is weak. Although the upstream production enterprises are suffering losses, which may provide some support, there is no strong driving force for a large increase. It is advisable to treat it with an oscillating view [38]. 3.6.4 Rubber - It may oscillate. The overseas raw material prices are strong, providing cost support. There is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, and attention should be paid to international situations and domestic policies [39]. 3.6.5 Methanol - The long - term supply - demand pattern is improving, and the inventory may continue to decrease. Although there is a possibility of inventory accumulation at the end of the month, the far - month contracts can be considered for long positions gradually [40]. 3.6.6 Caustic Soda - It follows the general trend of the commodity futures market, and its own fundamentals are weak. The cost has decreased, and the futures price should be treated with a wide - range oscillating view [41]. 3.6.7 Asphalt - The price may fluctuate more greatly in the short - term due to raw material factors. The focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. The raw material uncertainty has decreased, and the pricing method is worthy of attention [41][42]. 3.6.8 Polyester Industry Chain - In the short - term, the price follows the cost. It is advisable to consider the positive spread between May and September contracts of PX and PTA. PX has profit support, PTA's supply may increase, and ethylene glycol and short - fiber are under pressure [43]. 3.6.9 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - There is support from import costs, but the upward space is limited. The supply in the Middle East is relatively tight, but the global supply is abundant. The winter demand is strong, but the chemical industry is under pressure [44]. 3.6.10 Pulp - The spot market trading sentiment is weak, and the futures price faces hedging pressure. The fundamentals are stable, and the price has support from overseas markets. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. 3.6.11 Logs - The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the spot price is stable. The supply and demand are expected to be weakly balanced, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [45]. 3.6.12 Urea - The spot market trading is weak, and the futures price may oscillate weakly. The Indian urea tender has not met the procurement expectations [46].

晨会纪要 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2026 年 1 月 8 日 | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/1/8 | 基于基本面研判 | 联系人：王竣冬 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 | 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 瓶片 | 二债 | 合成橡胶 | 对二甲苯 | 生猪 | 橡胶 | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | | 短纤 | 白糖 | 烧碱 | PTA | 棉纱 | 甲醇 | 研究咨询电话： | | | | 塑料 | 五债 | 玻璃 | 多晶硅 | 十债 | 焦炭 | 0531-81678626 | | | | 工业硅 | 三十债 | 焦煤 | 棉花 | 沥青 | 客服电话： | | | | | 乙二醇 | 碳酸锂 | 400-618-6767 | | | | | | | | 玉米 | 公司网址： | 铁矿石 | | | | | | | | 热轧卷板 | www.z ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market is strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a record-long winning streak, and the stock index futures can be considered for trend-following operations [9][13]. - The bond market is under pressure, and the strategy for treasury bond futures is to maintain a flattening yield curve [15]. - Steel is expected to maintain a sideways trend, and iron ore is recommended to be shorted on rallies [17][18]. - The prices of coking coal and coke may rise sideways in the short term, and attention should be paid to the disturbances from coal mine production and safety inspections [19]. - For ferroalloys, it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term, paying attention to position management [21]. - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [22]. - The short-term price of lithium carbonate will be strong, but beware of significant fluctuations [24]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the opportunity to sell out-of-the-money call options on rallies; for polysilicon, hold the previous long positions and continue to look for opportunities to buy on dips [25][26]. - For cotton, operate by buying on dips and rolling; for sugar, trade short-term in the low range [28][30]. - The near-term contracts of eggs are expected to have limited upside space, while the far-term contracts are supported by strong expectations but also have limited upside [32][33]. - The apple futures may be strong, and the corn futures will be sideways to strong in the short term [34]. - The jujube market will maintain a sideways trend, and the short-term spot price of live pigs is likely to decline [36][38]. - The oil price will be sideways without new events, and the prices of fuel oil and plastics will follow the oil price [40][42][43]. - The rubber futures will be sideways, and it is advisable to go long on dips; the synthetic rubber may be strong in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see if there are no positions [45][46]. - For methanol, consider a slightly long allocation for the far-term contracts; for caustic soda, maintain a long position [47][48]. - The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate more significantly, and pay attention to the price bottom after the winter storage game [49]. - The polyester industry chain prices will follow the cost, and consider the PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads [51]. - The LPG price has support, but the upside space is limited; the pulp futures are advisable to wait and see; the urea market will be strong in the short term [52][53][55]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - On January 6, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.5% to 4083.67 points, achieving a 13 - day winning streak and hitting a new high in over 10 years [9]. - The 2026 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES 2026) kicked off on January 6. NVIDIA announced the full production of the new - generation AI chip platform Vera Rubin, and launched the world's first open - source VLA autonomous driving inference model Alpamayo [9]. - The People's Bank of China deployed key tasks for 2026, including using various monetary policy tools flexibly and efficiently, and strengthening financial market supervision [9]. - China decided to ban the export of all dual - use items to Japanese military users and military purposes [10]. - Four departments jointly issued a document to promote employees' cultural and sports consumption [10]. - Regulatory authorities surveyed some wealth management companies to address the bottlenecks for medium - and long - term funds to enter the market [10]. - As of January 5, over 280 Hong Kong - listed companies released their 2025 fiscal year performance forecasts. The performance of non - ferrous metal and innovative drug companies was generally good, while some traditional industries faced pressure [10]. - The China Securities Index Company announced index adjustments, which will take effect after the market closes on January 9 [11]. - More than a dozen small and medium - sized banks adjusted their deposit interest rates, showing a differentiated pattern [11]. - Boston Dynamics under Hyundai Motor plans to produce 30,000 Atlas humanoid robots annually in the US starting in 2028 [11]. - A US senior official said that Trump's team is discussing various options to acquire Greenland [11]. - A large number of US military planes flew to Europe recently, and Iran's armed forces are on high alert [12]. - The US Secret Service launched a large - scale recruitment campaign to prepare for major events in 2028 [12]. Stock Index Futures - The A - share market continued to rise with enlarged trading volume. The three major PMI indexes all rose to the expansion range, indicating an overall recovery of China's economic prosperity. It is recommended to consider trend - following operations [13][14]. Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market is balanced and slightly loose, and the stock index is strong, putting pressure on the bond market. The strategy is to flatten the yield curve [15]. Black Metals Steel and Iron Ore - Policy has little impact on steel production. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is okay. The supply of steel mills is stable, and the inventory is high. The valuation of iron ore is reasonable, and the supply is strong while the demand is stable. Steel is expected to be sideways, and iron ore is recommended to be shorted on rallies [17][18]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may rise sideways in the short term. The supply of coking coal may shrink, and the potential negative feedback risk restricts the price increase. The inventory of upstream enterprises is increasing, and the downstream replenishment is slow [19][20]. Ferroalloys - The market is affected by emotions, and it is not recommended to chase the rise. It is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term, paying attention to position management [21]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and new capacity may be put into production. The market expects cold - repair of glass production lines, and attention should be paid to the implementation of cold - repair [22]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price will be strong, but beware of significant fluctuations. The fundamentals are slightly weak, but the mine disturbances reduce the复产 expectation, and the long - term demand is good [24]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the opportunity to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies. For polysilicon, hold the previous long positions and continue to look for opportunities to buy on dips. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a loose balance, and the supply and demand of polysilicon are stable, with the anti -内卷 policy dominating the market [25][26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. It is advisable to buy on dips and roll. The international cotton price is affected by the planting area and export, and the domestic cotton price is affected by the pre - holiday replenishment and the decline in production before the Spring Festival [28][29]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market is in a season of strong supply and demand. It is recommended to trade short - term in the low range. The global sugar supply is in surplus, but some institutions have lowered the surplus forecast [30][31]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs is rising seasonally before the Spring Festival, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. The upside space of the near - term contracts is limited, and the far - term contracts are supported by expectations but also have limited upside [32][33]. Apples - The futures price may be strong. The出库 of apples is slightly lower than last year, the sales in the sales area are weak, and attention should be paid to the price changes in the sales area [34]. Corn - The short - term futures price will be sideways to strong. The price is affected by the farmers' selling sentiment and policy - related grain auctions [34][35]. Jujubes - The market will maintain a sideways trend. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable, and attention should be paid to the sales in the peak consumption season [36][37]. Live Pigs - The spot price is expected to decline in the middle of January. The futures main contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies. The second - fattening entry is active, and the supply pressure before the Spring Festival is increasing [38]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The geopolitical trading is over, and the market focuses on fundamentals. The oil price is facing a serious supply surplus, and it will be sideways without new events. Attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [40]. Fuel Oil - The price follows the oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The geopolitical situation in Iran affects the oil price, and the inventory is increasing [42]. Plastics - The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the demand is weak. The upstream is in heavy losses, which may support a small rebound. It is advisable to take a sideways view and beware of callback risks [43][44]. Rubber - The price will be sideways, and it is advisable to go long on dips. The raw material price in Thailand is rising, and the fundamentals have no obvious contradictions [45]. Synthetic Rubber - The price may be strong in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see if there are no positions. The price is driven by cost and market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the downstream procurement sentiment [46]. Methanol - The fundamentals are improving in the medium - long term. The far - term contracts can be considered for a slightly long allocation. The supply may be affected by the situation in Iran, and attention should be paid to the port inventory [47]. Caustic Soda - Maintain a long position. The impact of fundamentals on the futures is weak, and the spot price in Shandong is stable or declining [48]. Asphalt - The price is expected to fluctuate more significantly, and attention should be paid to the price bottom after the winter storage game. The supply of raw materials is uncertain due to geopolitics [49][50]. Polyester Industry Chain - The prices follow the cost. Consider the PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads. The supply and demand of PX and PTA are expected to weaken, and the market for ethylene glycol and short - fiber will be sideways [51]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price has support, but the upside space is limited. The supply in the Middle East is tight, but the global supply is abundant. The demand in winter is strong, but the chemical end is under pressure [52]. Paper Pulp - It is advisable to wait and see. The spot trading is weak, the port inventory is increasing, and the valuation does not provide a good opportunity [53]. Logs - The fundamentals are slightly weak, and the price will be sideways. The domestic spot market is stable, and the port inventory is increasing [54]. Urea - The spot and futures markets are expected to be strong in the short term. The spot price is rising, and the futures price is also strong [55][56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Overall Economic Situation - China's economic aggregate in 2025 is estimated to reach 140 trillion yuan. The manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI in December 2025 all rose, indicating an overall recovery of the economic climate [4][5]. - The A - share market in 2025 showed a mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 18% cumulatively, hitting a ten - year high. The Hong Kong stock market had a "good start" on the first trading day of 2026 [8][6]. 2.2 Commodity Market - **Futures Market**: Based on fundamental analysis, some commodities are in a trend - bearish, shock - bearish, or shock - bullish state. Based on quantitative analysis, some commodities are rated as bearish, shock, or bullish [2]. - **Black Commodities**: Steel is expected to maintain a shock market, and iron ore is recommended to be short - sold on rallies. The prices of coking coal and coke may rise in the short - term but are restricted by the profit pressure of the steel industry chain. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are recommended to be short - sold on rallies [11][12][14]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: For Shanghai zinc, it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rallies. For Shanghai lead, it is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can enter short positions at high prices. Lithium carbonate may have a short - term price correction but has long - term demand support. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies, and for polysilicon, it is recommended to buy on dips [17][18][20]. - **Agricultural Products**: Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be shock - bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Zhengzhou sugar is in a state of recovering valuation and is recommended for short - term trading. For eggs, the near - month contracts have limited upside, and the far - month contracts have strong support but high valuations. Apples are expected to be in a shock market. Corn prices are expected to be in a range - bound state in the short term. Jujubes are expected to be in a shock state. For live pigs, the spot price is likely to decline in the first half of January, and the futures main contract is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [23][25][27]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are expected to be bearish. Fuel oil prices will fluctuate with oil prices. Polyethylene is expected to be in a shock - bullish state. Rubber is expected to be in a shock market, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Synthetic rubber is expected to be shock - bullish in the short term. Methanol's fundamentals are improving, and the far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after a price correction. Caustic soda's near - month contracts are recommended to be short - sold, and the far - month 05 contracts can hold long positions dynamically. Asphalt price fluctuations are expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. The polyester chain is in a short - term adjustment state, and positive spreads between 5 - 9 contracts of PX and PTA can be considered. Liquefied petroleum gas has limited upside space. Pulp is recommended to wait and see in the short term. Logs are expected to be in a shock - bearish state. Urea is expected to be strong in the short term [32][33][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Information - China's economic aggregate in 2025 is estimated to reach 140 trillion yuan. The manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI in December 2025 rose to the expansion range, indicating an overall recovery of the economic climate [4][5]. - The A - share market in 2025 showed a mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.09% on the last trading day, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell. The Hong Kong stock market had a "good start" on the first trading day of 2026, with the Hang Seng Index rising 2.76% [8][6]. - The US government issued a full - year license to TSMC, allowing the export of US chip - manufacturing equipment to its Nanjing factory. The US is likely to announce the next Fed Chairman in January [6]. 3.2 Futures Market 3.2.1 Fundamental Analysis - Trend - bearish commodities: caustic soda, live pigs, pulp, etc. - Shock - bearish commodities: lead, corn, zinc, etc. - Shock commodities: synthetic rubber, urea, rubber, etc. - Shock - bullish commodities: none mentioned. - Trend - bullish commodities: none mentioned [2]. 3.2.2 Quantitative Analysis - Bearish commodities: rapeseed oil, polypropylene, soybeans No. 1, etc. - Shock commodities: corn, coke, Shanghai gold, etc. - Bullish commodities: soybean oil, eggs, plastic, etc. [2]. 3.3 Black Commodities 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - Policy: The central economic working conference did not introduce new policies, and the policy interference in the steel production end is low, which is relatively negative for finished products and steel mill profits [11]. - Fundamentals: The demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for coils is good. The supply is relatively stable, and the inventory is still at a high level compared with last year. The iron ore supply is strong, and the demand is stable [11][12]. - Valuation: The futures prices of iron ore and coking coal are oscillating, and the steel price is expected to be between the valley - electricity and flat - electricity costs [12]. - Trend: Steel is expected to maintain a shock market, and iron ore is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [12]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Fluctuation Reason: The "anti - involution" policy led to a rebound in coking coal prices. The supply of coking coal is expected to shrink, and the demand for raw materials from steel mills has decreased in the short term [13]. - Future Outlook: The prices of coking coal and coke may rise in the short - term, but the upside space is limited due to the profit pressure of the steel industry chain [13]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - Market Outlook: Manganese silicon is recommended to be short - sold on rallies in the medium and long term, and ferrosilicon is also recommended to be short - sold on rallies [14]. - Fluctuation Reason: The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon fluctuated, and the steel mills had signs of stockpiling before the Spring Festival [14]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Fluctuation Reason: The supply of glass decreased, and the sentiment of the soda ash futures market rose. The supply of soda ash is expected to gradually recover [15]. - View: For soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see. For glass, it is recommended to try long positions after the market sentiment stabilizes [15]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Shanghai Zinc - Inventory: As of December 31, the inventory of zinc ingots decreased. - Supply and Demand: The supply in December decreased, and it is expected to increase slightly in January. The demand has some resilience but is expected to weaken in January [17]. - Operation: It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rallies [17]. 3.4.2 Shanghai Lead - Inventory: As of December 31, the inventory of lead ingots increased. - Supply and Demand: The production of recycled lead decreased in December, and the spot market was lightly traded. The consumption during the New Year's Day holiday decreased, and the inventory accumulation expectation increased [18][19]. - Operation: It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can enter short positions at high prices [18]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental: The fundamentals are weakening in the short term, and the inventory accumulation expectation in the first quarter is strong. - Outlook: The price may correct in the short term, but the long - term demand is good, and it is recommended to buy on dips [20]. 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: It has some valuation repair space but is still under pressure. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [21]. - Polysilicon: It is recommended to buy on dips. The price is expected to be supported by the anti - involution policy and the downstream demand [21]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - Fluctuation Reason: The price of ICE cotton fell, and the domestic cotton market was affected by supply and demand and policy expectations [24]. - Future Outlook: The global cotton supply and demand are slightly loose, and the domestic cotton supply is temporarily loose. It is expected to be shock - bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips [23][24]. 3.5.2 Sugar - Fluctuation Reason: The price of ICE raw sugar fell due to oversupply, and the domestic sugar market was affected by supply and demand and cost [25]. - Future Outlook: The global sugar supply is in surplus, and the domestic sugar market is in a season of strong supply and demand. It is recommended for short - term trading [25][26]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Current Situation: The near - month contracts are close to the spot price, and the spot price may rise before the Spring Festival, but the upside is limited. The far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of inventory "break", but the valuation is high [27][28]. - Outlook: It is recommended to wait and see for the far - month contracts, and the near - month contracts have limited upside [27][28]. 3.5.4 Apples - Fluctuation Reason: The出库 volume decreased, and the sales in the distribution area were slow, leading to a weakening of the futures price [29]. - Future Outlook: The market is expected to be in a shock state, and attention should be paid to the price changes in the distribution area [29]. 3.5.5 Corn - Fluctuation Reason: The domestic corn spot price fluctuated, and the futures price was in a shock state. The selling sentiment of farmers and the policy grain auction are the key factors [29]. - Future Outlook: The price is expected to be in a range - bound state in the short term, and attention should be paid to the selling sentiment in March [29][30]. 3.5.6 Jujubes - Fluctuation Reason: The prices in the production and sales areas are stable, and the market is in a shock state. - Future Outlook: It is expected to be in a shock state in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sales rhythm in the distribution area [30]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - Fluctuation Reason: The scale enterprises reduced the supply before the New Year's Day, and the social pig supply was tight, leading to a rise in the spot price [31]. - Future Outlook: The spot price is likely to decline in the first half of January, and the futures main contract is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [31]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Geopolitical Impact: The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on the market, and the long - term impact on oil prices is negative [32]. - Supply and Demand: OPEC's suspension of production increase in the first quarter is difficult to sustain, and the oil price is expected to be bearish [32]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - Price Fluctuation: The price fluctuates with the oil price, and the supply is loose, and the demand is weak [33]. - Geopolitical Impact: The geopolitical premium is weakening, and the price is under pressure [33]. 3.6.3 Polyethylene - Supply and Demand: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak, but the upstream losses may provide some support [34]. - Outlook: It is expected to be in a shock - bullish state [34]. 3.6.4 Rubber - Fluctuation Reason: The international macro - environment and trading system may increase the capital participation, but the seasonal factors limit the upside space [35]. - Outlook: It is expected to be in a shock market, and it is recommended to buy on dips [35]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Fluctuation Reason: The cost is supported, and the short - term sentiment fluctuates [36]. - Outlook: It is recommended to wait and see, and it may be shock - bullish in the short term [36]. 3.6.6 Methanol - Supply and Demand: The supply may decrease, and the demand may increase, and the fundamentals are improving [37]. - Outlook: The near - month contracts are in a shock - bullish state, and the far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after a price correction [37][38]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - Current Situation: The near - month contracts are weak, and the far - month 05 contracts have macro - positive expectations [39]. - Outlook: The near - month contracts are recommended to be short - sold, and the far - month 05 contracts can hold long positions dynamically [39]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - Price Fluctuation: The price fluctuation is expected to increase due to the uncertainty of raw materials [40]. - Outlook: The focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game [40]. 3.6.9 Polyester Chain - Fluctuation Reason: The market has digested the positive expectations, and the price is in a short - term adjustment state [41]. - Outlook: Positive spreads between 5 - 9 contracts of PX and PTA can be considered [41]. 3.6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Supply and Demand: The supply in the Middle East is tight, but the domestic demand has pressure, and the upside space is limited [42][43]. - Outlook: It has some support, but the upside space is limited [42][43]. 3.6.11 Pulp - Fluctuation Reason: The spot trading is weak, and the futures price is under pressure from hedging [44]. - Outlook: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [44]. 3.6.12 Logs - Fundamental: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [45]. - Outlook: It is expected to be in a shock - bearish state [45]. 3.6.13 Urea - Current Situation: The spot trading has improved, and the futures price is expected to be strong [46]. - Outlook: It is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the domestic demand and Indian procurement [46].

目录 1 现货市场 4 行情预期 3 产业链利润 2 基差价差 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 逻辑观点 基本面环比改善，转入偏强思路 中泰期货甲醇产业链周报 2026年1月4日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 对冲策略：观望。 风险因素：地缘政治局势突变导致伊朗甲醇出口受阻 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 近期甲醇基本面环比改善，但12月底到1月到港量仍然较多，可能会继续累库。甲醇自身供应压力还是比 较大，还需要进一步观察甲醇港口去库存情况。 甲醇近期围绕国内甲醇库存偏高以及是否能够快速去库等因素的博弈比较激烈，导致甲醇行情波动较大。 甲醇现在最大的压力是库存比较高，但是伊朗检修装置较多导致短期供应减少，远期基本面略有改善，近期 仍处于累库状态压力比较大。 现货市场情况 单边策略：近月合约偏强震荡思路，远月合约可等价格回调时，逐步偏多配置。 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[ ...

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Core Insights - China is set to become the first economy to pay interest on its central bank digital currency, with the new digital yuan framework starting on January 1, 2026, marking a transition from "digital cash" to "digital deposit currency" [10] - The People's Liberation Army has begun military exercises around Taiwan, indicating heightened geopolitical tensions in the region [10] - The State Council has announced a tariff adjustment plan for 2026, which includes temporary lower import tariffs on 935 items to enhance the synergy between domestic and international markets [10] - The automotive market in China is expected to see complex growth dynamics in 2026, influenced by early government subsidies and seasonal factors [11] - Hong Kong's private residential prices have increased for six consecutive months, suggesting a potential end to the downward trend since 2021 [11] - The global memory industry is expected to experience a prolonged "super cycle" due to strong demand for AI servers and enterprise SSDs, lasting at least until 2027 [11] - TSMC has commenced mass production of its 2nm technology, which is anticipated to be the most advanced semiconductor technology in terms of density and energy efficiency [12] Macroeconomic Insights - The A-share market shows mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.04% while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.49% [14] - Industrial profits for large enterprises have shown a decline in growth rate as of November [14] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of stabilizing industrial growth and addressing "involution" competition [14][15] Commodity Insights - The steel market is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with iron ore prices under pressure due to weak demand from the real estate sector and slow construction progress [18][19] - The coal and coke prices may experience short-term fluctuations, influenced by production and safety inspections in coal mines [20][21] - The silicon metal market is facing pressure from the establishment of polysilicon platform companies, which may affect future production expectations [30] - The lithium carbonate market is showing signs of weakening demand, with expectations of inventory accumulation in the first quarter of 2026 [29] - The agricultural sector, particularly cotton and sugar, is experiencing mixed signals with supply pressures and seasonal demand fluctuations [33][35] Energy Sector Insights - Crude oil prices are expected to remain under pressure due to oversupply, despite geopolitical tensions in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East [46] - Fuel oil prices are influenced by geopolitical factors and are expected to follow crude oil price trends [47] - The plastic market is facing supply pressures, with expectations of weak demand impacting prices [48]

Report Title - Supply Tightness and Weakening Demand: Shanghai Zinc Maintains a Sideways - Bullish Trend [1] Report Date - December 29, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The zinc market has a supply - tight and demand - weak situation, and Shanghai zinc is expected to maintain a sideways - bullish trend. The tight supply is due to smelters' production cuts caused by raw material issues, while the demand shows a weakening trend overall [1][8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - **Industry Data**: Domestic zinc ore is in short supply, and zinc ore processing fees are falling rapidly, providing some support for zinc prices. In December, the decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued. The domestic zinc concentrate production decreased by 5.86% month - on - month to 31.14 million tons, while the import volume increased by 52.27% to 51.90 million tons. The domestic zinc ingot production decreased by 3.56% to 59.52 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 16.94% to 1.88 million tons. The export volume increased by 402.59% to 4.2816 million tons. The total supply increased by 2.14% month - on - month, and the apparent demand decreased by 0.86% [8] - **Futures Prices**: Last week, the Shanghai - London ratio dropped to around 7.4, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Overseas, strong economic data boosted demand prospects, but the increase in overseas inventories put pressure on LME zinc prices. Domestically, the overall macro environment was positive, and smelters' maintenance due to raw material issues continued, supporting Shanghai zinc prices. It is expected that the Shanghai - London ratio will continue to decline this week [9] - **Spot Prices**: In Guangdong, inventory is decreasing, the market premium is rising, but the downstream consumption is average, and it is expected to fluctuate this week. In Shanghai, some traders cleared their inventories at the end of the year, and the downstream consumption was in the off - season. It is expected that the spot supply will be low and the premium will not decline significantly. In Tianjin, the premium increased last week but is expected to decline due to new environmental warnings. In Ningbo, the premium was high but is expected to fluctuate this week due to poor downstream orders [12] 3.2 Supply Side - **Processing Fees**: The weekly average of SMM Zn50 domestic TC decreased by 100 yuan/metal ton to 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by 2.74 dollars/dry ton to 47.39 dollars/dry ton. At the end of the month, the negotiation of January zinc concentrate processing fees between domestic smelters and mines is ongoing. The import market was quiet during the Christmas holiday, with few offers [15] - **Zinc Concentrate Production**: The production of zinc concentrate is affected by factors such as smelter production cuts and import window opening [15] - **Zinc Concentrate Inventory**: The total inventory of SMM zinc concentrate at major Chinese ports was 2.7 million physical tons, a decrease of 0.67 million physical tons from the previous week. Huangpu Port and Fangchenggang Port contributed to the main reduction [8] - **Refined Zinc Production**: In December, refined zinc production continued to decline. It is estimated that the production in December will decrease by 14,000 tons to 512,000 tons, with a daily - average decrease of 5.8%. The cumulative production from January to December is expected to be 6.168 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.8% [28] - **Mineral and Ingot Imports**: In November 2025, the import of zinc concentrate was 519,000 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 52.27% and a year - on - year increase of 13.84%. The import of refined zinc was 18,229.93 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.15% [34] - **Import and Export Profits**: The import window remained closed, and the possibility of opening within the year was low. The export window closed in December [36] 3.3 Demand Side - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of downstream zinc products such as Zamak5 zinc alloy, Zamak3 zinc alloy, zinc oxide, and hot - dipped galvanized products are presented in the report [39] - **Downstream开工情况**: The weekly galvanizing开工 rate increased by 1.05% to 56.67% due to the lifting of environmental protection restrictions and the resumption of production by northern enterprises, but the demand is weakening. The weekly zinc oxide开工 rate increased by 2.08% to 57.04% as some enterprises recovered from environmental protection - related production cuts and had better demand. The weekly die - casting zinc alloy开工 rate increased by 8.09% to 52.80% as some enterprises resumed production and the downstream demand improved [8] - **Downstream Inventory Days**: The inventory data of downstream zinc processing enterprises and smelters' finished products are presented, including raw material inventory, finished product inventory of zinc alloys and zinc ingots, and inventory days [46] 3.4 Inventory Changes - **Futures Inventory**: LME zinc inventory increased by 6.98% to 106,900 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory increased by 1.83% to 42,100 tons [8] - **Spot Inventory**: As of December 25, the total SMM zinc ingot inventory in seven regions was 114,700 tons, a decrease of 7.87% from December 18. The inventory in Tianjin and Guangdong decreased, while the inventory in Shanghai remained unchanged. The bonded area inventory remained stable at 3,300 tons [8] 3.5 Macro - disturbances - **Macro - disturbance Factors**: The exchange rate, Shanghai - London ratio, US dollar index, and US federal funds target rate are presented in the report, but no in - depth analysis of their impact on the zinc market is provided [57]

晨会纪要 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 12 月 29 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 | 联系人：王竣冬 | | --- | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 尿素 | 碳酸锂 | 合成橡胶 | | | | 短纤 | 液化石油气 | 橡胶 | | | | 瓶片 | 锌 | 多晶硅 | | | | PTA | 铝 | 沥青 | | | | 乙二醇 | 工业硅 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 对二甲苯 | 燃油 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 硅铁 | 眞湘 | 塑料 | | | | 锰硅 | 烧碱 | 甲醇 ...