1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Fundamental Analysis - Based on fundamental factors, the trend of some commodities is judged. For example, the trend of red dates and eggs is bearish, while the trend of synthetic rubber is bullish [4]. Quantitative Analysis - Based on quantitative indicators, the trends of some commodities such as soybeans and zinc are judged to be bearish, while the trends of methanol and rubber are judged to be bullish [9]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro News - UK Prime Minister Starmer will visit China from January 28 - 31, and high - level meetings will be held to discuss bilateral relations [11]. - Trump's remarks on the US dollar caused the US dollar index to fall by more than 1%, reaching a new low in nearly four years [11]. - A new round of price hikes in the global chip industry, with significant price increases from companies like Samsung and SK Hynix, and domestic companies also raising prices [12]. - The AI assistant Clawdbot has become popular overseas, and domestic AI models are also booming [12]. - In 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China reached 7.4 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, reversing a three - year decline [13]. - The impact of the Indian Nipah virus on China is relatively small, and no cases have been found in China [13]. - China's first interstellar navigation college was officially established [13]. - In 2025, the bank wealth - management market increased by more than 3.3 trillion yuan, while small and medium - sized banks' self - operated wealth management faced scale reduction or elimination [13]. - US population growth slowed down in 2025 due to a significant slowdown in immigration [14]. - Trump decided to raise tariffs on South Korean products from 15% to 25% [14]. - The EU and India reached a free - trade agreement [14]. - The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to a new low since 2014 [14]. - Some customers in futures trading were restricted for suspected irregularities [15]. - Citigroup and Deutsche Bank believe that gold may reach $6000 per ounce [15]. Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - The upward trend of IC/IM may continue, and trend - following strategies are recommended. The A - share market showed an oscillating upward trend, with small - and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap stocks [18]. Treasury Bond Futures - It is recommended to wait and see. The capital market has loosened, but the cost of funds is still relatively high, and the central bank's monetary policy is turning loose [19]. Black Commodities Steel and Iron Ore - The black market will remain in an oscillating trend. Steel will be in an oscillating and consolidating state in the short term, and iron ore is relatively weak and should be short - sold on rallies [21]. Coking Coal and Coke - The price of coking coal and coke may oscillate and consolidate in the short term. Pay attention to the production changes in coal mines and the procurement progress of downstream enterprises [23]. Ferroalloys - Silicon iron is recommended to be bought on dips in the medium term, and for manganese silicon, it is recommended to hold short positions established at high levels and wait and see [24]. Soda Ash and Glass - It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the production changes of the supply side of soda ash and glass [25]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - It is recommended to wait and see or re - enter short positions. The domestic zinc inventory has decreased, but the upward movement of precious metals may be restricted, which may drive the non - ferrous metal sector down [27]. Lead - It is recommended to wait and see and continue to hold short positions. The social inventory of lead has reached a new high in nearly two months [28]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate may move up after a short - term correction, with wide - range oscillations [30]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon will operate in an oscillating manner, and opportunities to sell out - of - the - money call options after a rebound should be awaited. Polysilicon will continue to operate in an oscillating manner, and the anti - monopoly and anti - over - competition rectification plan should be awaited [31]. Agricultural Products Cotton - It is recommended to conduct short - term trading. The short - term supply of cotton is loose, but the long - term supply may decrease, and there are contradictions between pre - festival replenishment and declining downstream production [33]. Sugar - It is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - price range. Domestic sugar is under pressure from supply and weak demand during the peak season [36]. Eggs - A bearish view is recommended for the current position. The pre - festival egg inventory may peak and weaken, and the futures price has limited upward space [39]. Apples - The futures price may run strongly. The apple market is in a game between supply support and demand constraints, and the price will oscillate in a range [40]. Corn - It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to the port collection situation. The corn price is stable in the short term, and the possibility of a sharp decline before the Spring Festival is low [41]. Red Dates - The red date market will oscillate and consolidate in the short term. Pay attention to the sales situation in the peak consumption season [43]. Pigs - Pay attention to the impact of weight reduction before the Spring Festival on the spot price, and look for opportunities to short the near - month contracts on rallies [44]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - There is a risk of short - term market fluctuations. The supply of crude oil is in surplus, but geopolitical factors have increased the risk premium [46]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil will fluctuate with the price of crude oil. The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, and the current focus is on geopolitical factors [48]. Plastics - Polyolefins have large supply pressure and are weak in terms of supply - demand. Although the upstream is in a state of large losses, the rebound space is limited due to the expected new - capacity release [48]. Rubber - It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips. The fundamentals are stable, and pay attention to the inventory changes and downstream procurement [48]. Synthetic Rubber - It is recommended to buy on dips. The supply of butadiene is expected to be tight in the first half of the year, and the price of synthetic rubber may remain strong [48]. Methanol - It is recommended to take a bearish view on the short - term correction. The supply - demand situation of methanol has improved, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation at the end of the month [48]. Caustic Soda - A bearish view is recommended for the near - month contracts, and a bullish view for the far - month contracts. The caustic soda market has high inventory and low profit, but there may be a turnaround in the far - month [50]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt will fluctuate with the price of crude oil and is expected to be oscillating and strong in the short term. Pay attention to geopolitical factors and raw - material price changes [51]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is recommended to consider rolling long - buying at low prices or positive spreads between May and September contracts. The near - term fundamentals of the polyester industry chain are weak, but the cost side provides strong support [52]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG will remain strong in the short term, but pay attention to the negative feedback from the demand side. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and try short - selling on rallies in the long term [53]. Pulp - The pulp market will have large intraday fluctuations. The spot market has weakened, but there is support from the long - term external price. It may oscillate and strengthen if the commodity sentiment improves [54]. Logs - The fundamentals of logs are oscillating and strong, and the spot price has stabilized. The futures price is expected to be oscillating and strong with the improvement of commodity sentiment [55]. Urea - Urea futures are expected to be oscillating and strong. The spot market is stable, and pay attention to the improvement of future liquidity [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different sectors having their own characteristics. For example, in the macro - financial sector, the stock index futures market needs to pay attention to the sustainability of style changes and the repair of weighted indexes; the bond market's ultra - long - end rebound may not end, and interest rates may continue to flatten. In the black sector, the overall situation is volatile, with steel products oscillating and iron ore being relatively weak. In the energy - chemical sector, the price of energy products is affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relations [15][16][17]. Summary by Directory 1. Based on Fundamental and Quantitative Index Judgments - **Based on Fundamental Judgments**: Different futures varieties have different trend judgments, such as trend空头, 震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, and 趋势多头 for various commodities like烧碱, 二债, 上证50股指期货, etc. [4] - **Based on Quantitative Index Judgments**: There are also trend judgments for different varieties based on quantitative indicators, including偏空, 震荡, and 偏多 for commodities like豆二, 豆一, 甲醇, etc. [6] 2. Macro News - **International Trade Tensions**: The US threatens to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Canada reaches a new trade agreement with China. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs states that China - Canada cooperation does not target any third - party [8]. - **Financial Policy**: The People's Bank of China emphasizes expanding the scope of macro - prudential policies to maintain financial stability. The central bank's deputy governor supports measures to increase the scale of RMB business in Hong Kong [8][10]. - **Market Fluctuations**: The precious metal market experiences significant fluctuations. The exchange takes measures to cool down the commodity futures market. Some companies have important developments, such as Alibaba releasing a new AI model and a large - scale financing in the AI unicorn [8][9]. - **Industry Policies**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs focuses on stabilizing beef production and milk industry relief. Tianjin optimizes housing provident fund management [10]. - **Space and Technology**: A company plans to build a space computing power network. Tencent has its own AI strategy. Humanoid robots will appear on the Spring Festival Gala [11]. - **US Government Situation**: The probability of a new US government shutdown by the end of January soars. The US durable goods orders in November 2025 show significant growth [11][12]. - **Hong Kong and OPEC+**: Hong Kong plans to increase gold storage and establish a gold trading system. OPEC+ is expected to continue the current production policy [13]. 3. Macro - Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market fluctuates downward. The style of the market is being repaired, but there is still pressure on weighted stocks. The strategy is to pay attention to the sustainability of style changes and the repair of weighted indexes [15]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ultra - long - end rebound may not end, and interest rates may continue to flatten. The central bank's MLF operation increases, and the monetary policy is turning loose. However, the money market is still relatively expensive [16]. 4. Black Sector - **Steel and Iron Ore**: From a policy perspective, the production of the steel industry is less likely to be interfered with. Fundamentally, steel stocks increase slightly, and the fundamentals are okay. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the overall black market is in a volatile situation. Steel products oscillate, and iron ore is relatively weak [17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal and coke may oscillate in the short term. The supply and demand situation may improve during the Spring Festival, which may support the spot price [20]. - **Ferroalloys**: The price center of silicon - based ferroalloys is rising slightly. It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon at low prices in the medium - term and hold short positions on silicomanganese [21]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: The market atmosphere is easing. It is recommended to wait and see. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and new production capacity. For glass, pay attention to the implementation of production line changes [22]. 5. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc inventory decreases. It is recommended to wait and see or re - enter the market with short positions as precious metals may fall back and drive down the non - ferrous sector [24]. - **Lead**: The social inventory of lead increases. It is recommended to wait and see and hold short positions. The lead consumption market is in a downturn, and the supply is relatively tight in some areas [27]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price may rise after a short - term correction. Attention should be paid to the possible resumption of production of mines and the impact on downstream demand [28]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon may run strongly in the short term but is under pressure in the long - term. Polysilicon is in a volatile state, waiting for policy guidance [29][30]. 6. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The short - term supply is loose, and the price is in a short - term consolidation state. The long - term supply is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [32]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar market is under supply pressure, and the demand is not strong during the peak season. It is recommended to trade in the low - price range [34]. - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg spot price may weaken. The futures price has limited upward space, and a short - selling idea is recommended at the current position [35]. - **Apples**: The apple market is in a game between supply support and demand constraints. The price of high - quality goods remains firm, and the price of ordinary goods is under pressure [38]. - **Corn**: The corn market has large differences in the market. It is recommended to focus on the port collection situation and conduct short - term trading [39]. - **Red Dates**: The red date market is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the market performance during the consumption peak season [39]. - **Pigs**: The supply and demand of the pig market both increase, and the spot market has intense competition. Attention should be paid to the impact of weight reduction before the Spring Festival on the spot price [41]. 7. Energy - Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense, and the supply is in surplus. There is a high geopolitical premium, and short - term market fluctuations should be noted [43]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price of fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally, and the focus is on the geopolitical situation [44]. - **Plastics**: Polyolefins have large supply pressure. The upstream is in a loss state, and the price may rebound slightly but with limited space [45]. - **Rubber**: Before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment and the approaching off - season in overseas production areas may support the price. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options at low prices [46]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The supply and demand of synthetic rubber are stable and increasing. It is recommended to go long on dips based on the expectation of good fundamentals of butadiene [47]. - **Methanol**: The short - term supply and demand situation of methanol has improved, and the inventory is decreasing. In the long - term, the fundamentals are getting better, but attention should be paid to the arrival of imported goods [50]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot market of caustic soda is bearish, but the far - month futures contract shows a strong trend [51]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt follows the trend of crude oil and is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term [52]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The short - term market is affected by market sentiment. It is recommended to consider positive spreads between May and September contracts of PX, PTA, or MEG [53]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: LPG is strong in the short - term, supported by import costs. However, attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the demand side [54]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp market has a lot of long - short games. The spot market trading sentiment is weakening, and the price may oscillate. If the commodity sentiment improves, it may be oscillating strongly [56]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals of logs are oscillating strongly, and the spot price is temporarily stable. The market is expected to be oscillating strongly with the improvement of commodity sentiment [56]. - **Urea**: The urea futures market is expected to be strongly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the improvement of the spot market liquidity [57].

需求阶段性走强，宏观继续推升锌价 中泰期货· 2026年1月26日 中泰期货研究所 王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 目 录 CONTENTS 1 02 价格 01 综述 03 供给：锌矿、锌锭 04 需求：加工、终端 05 库存 06 其他 综述 综述 | 产业数据 | | 项目 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 上期 | 示期 | 环比 | 环比率 | 综述 | | 在锌矿紧缺背景下,国内锌精矿加工费跌势持续,国产加工费跌至1500元/金 | | 锌精矿国产TC(元/金属吨) | 1500 | 1500 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 属吨后企稳。 | | 尽管随着前期国内冶炼厂减产和进口锌精矿比价的修复,国内锌精矿市场的供 | | | | | | | 需情绪近期有所回暖,但目前国产锌精矿加工费仅暂时出现止跌现象,并未发 进口矿贸易市场上,临近年末,市场矿贸易商多继续休假,周度进口锌精矿报 盘较少,整体成交较为清淡。 | | | | 国内锌精矿产量(月度) ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2026 年 1 月 26 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2026/1/26 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 鸡蛋 | 锌 | 燃油 | 合成橡胶 | | 研究咨询电话： | | 红枣 | 铅 | 液化石油气 | | | | | 生猪 | 多晶硅 | 原油 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 铁矿石 | 烧碱 | 尿素 | | | 客服电话： | | | 工业硅 | 沥青 | | | | | | 原木 | 碳酸锂 | | | 400-618-6767 | | | 橡胶 | 苹果 | | | 公司网址： | | | 纸浆 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | | | 胶版印刷纸 | 十债 | | | www.ztqh.com | | | 玉米 | 三十债 | | ...

中泰期货PVC烧碱产业链周报 PVC + NAOH + CL 2026年1月25日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 现货市场 4 行情预期 3 产业链利润 2 基差价差 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 PVC综述及平衡表 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） PVC供需小结 | | | 上周 | 本周 | 周环比 | 下周 | 下下周 | 思路 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 总产量 | 48.75 | 48.21 | -0.54 | 46.48 | 46.73 | 本周产量略微下降，但是比预测的略 高，下周部分装置临时检修，产量预 | | | | | | | | | 计小幅度减少。 | | 产量 （万吨） | 乙烯法 | 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information in the provided document about the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse situation. In the macro - financial field, policies such as central bank's monetary policy and special treasury bond issuance have an impact on the economy. In various commodity markets, different varieties have different trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationship, policy, and geopolitical situation [10][14][17]. - For different commodities, specific investment strategies are proposed. For example, in the black market, steel is expected to oscillate and iron ore is relatively weak; in the energy - chemical market, the price of crude oil may turn weak, while some other products have their own specific trends and trading suggestions [17][37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has been issued, which will drive over 460 billion yuan of total investment. The central bank will conduct a 900 - billion - yuan MLF operation on January 23, with a net injection of 70 billion yuan [10]. - The unemployment rates of different age groups in the urban labor force in December 2025 are announced. Nine departments jointly issued an opinion to promote the high - quality development of the drug retail industry [10]. - International news includes the US - Greenland agreement, the US's attempt to subvert the Cuban regime, the US GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025, inflation indicators, and the expected policy rate of the Bank of Japan [11][12]. Macro - finance Stock Index - The A - share market is in a narrow - range consolidation. If there is no further increase in volume and a reverse - enveloping negative line in the near future, the stock index may enter an adjustment phase [14]. Treasury Bond Futures - The medium - term liquidity expansion may repair the tight capital situation. The ultra - long - term bonds may continue to rebound due to the decline in risk appetite [15]. Black Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - The macro - policy has limited short - term impact on demand. The supply of the steel industry is relatively stable. The fundamentals of steel are acceptable, but the downstream demand is weak. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the overall black market is expected to oscillate. Steel will oscillate and iron ore is relatively weak [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and decline in the short term. Later, attention should be paid to the disturbances from coal mine production, safety inspections, and changes in downstream procurement and iron - making output [17]. Ferroalloys - The medium - term price fluctuation center of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is slightly rising. It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon on dips in the medium term, and hold the short positions of manganese silicon established at high levels [18]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - The demand is good, the supply is disturbed, and the market sentiment is rising. In the short term, lithium carbonate will run with a strong bias [22]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is under pressure at the upper limit and will oscillate. Wait for the opportunity to sell out - of - the - money call options after the rebound. Polysilicon will also oscillate, waiting for the guidance of anti -内卷 and anti - monopoly rectification plans [23][24]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. Zhengzhou cotton is in a short - term strong consolidation state, and short - term trading is recommended [25]. Sugar - Domestic sugar is in a season of both supply and demand. Zhengzhou sugar is under pressure from external and domestic supply, and short - term trading in the low - price range is recommended [28]. Eggs - As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg spot price may weaken before the festival. The upside of the egg futures is limited, and a short - selling idea is recommended at the current position [30]. Apples - The apple futures may run strongly. The market is in a game between supply support and demand restraint, and attention should be paid to the consumption performance during the Spring Festival stocking period [32]. Corn - The corn futures have large differences in the market. Pay attention to the port collecting situation, and short - term trading is recommended [33]. Red Dates - Keep an eye on the performance of the consumer market during the peak season. Currently, the market is expected to oscillate weakly [33]. Pigs - The market sentiment has peaked, and the breeding side is more willing to sell. The spot price may decline, and it is advisable to short the near - month contracts on rallies [35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Due to the upcoming negotiation and the increase in EIA inventory, the oil price may turn weak. However, attention should be paid to the Iranian situation [37]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is mainly affected by geopolitical factors and will fluctuate with the oil price [38]. Plastics - Polyolefins have large supply pressure, but the upstream losses may support the price. The short - term trend is strong, but the rebound space is limited [39]. Rubber - Before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment and the upcoming suspension of overseas production may support the price. The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips [40]. Synthetic Rubber - The price of synthetic rubber is mainly affected by the price of butadiene and market sentiment. It may oscillate upward in the first half of the year, and it is advisable to go long on dips [42]. Methanol - The short - term inventory of methanol is decreasing smoothly, but there is still a possibility of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. In the long term, the fundamentals are improving, and it is advisable to consider a slightly long - position configuration for the far - month contracts after the callback [43]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda spot is under pressure, but the futures can be considered from a long - position perspective [44]. Asphalt - The asphalt price fluctuates with the oil price and is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [45]. Polyester Industry Chain - The market is expected to run strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to consider rolling long positions at low prices or positive spreads between May and September contracts of PX and PTA [46]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - There is support from import costs, and the short - term downside is limited. In the long term, a light - position short - selling attempt can be considered [48]. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The spot price has回调, and the futures may repair the basis. The downside is limited [49]. Logs - The fundamentals of logs are weakly oscillating, and the spot price is temporarily stable. The futures are expected to oscillate [50]. Urea - The urea futures are expected to oscillate strongly. The spot market is stable, and attention should be paid to the improvement of spot market liquidity [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, different futures varieties are classified into trend - bearish, oscillating - bearish, oscillating, oscillating - bullish, and trend - bullish categories. For example, eggs, red dates, and live pigs are in the oscillating - bearish category; soda ash, glass, and sugar are in the oscillating category; synthetic rubber, lithium carbonate, and 30 - year government bonds are in the oscillating - bullish category [5]. - Based on quantitative indicators, futures varieties are divided into bearish, oscillating, and bullish categories. For instance, Shanghai gold, soybean No. 2, and soybean oil are in the bearish category; rebar, coking coal, and soybean No. 1 are in the oscillating category; Shanghai copper, manganese - silicon, and rubber are in the bullish category [9]. - Various macro - economic events have impacts on the financial market. For example, the agreement on Greenland by the US President Trump leads to a rise in US stocks and a fall in spot silver; the speech of NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun on AI infrastructure construction has implications for related industries; the EU's new network security policy and China's response also affect the market [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term operations should focus on volume and price, and profit - taking operations can be considered. The A - share market shows an oscillating upward trend, but if there is no further increase in volume and a reverse - enveloping negative line is not formed, the stock index may enter an adjustment phase [16][17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ultra - long - end may continue to rebound due to the decline in risk appetite. The short - end is supported by the capital market, and the overall idea of the central bank is still to expand credit, with bond yields remaining steep [18]. 3.2 Black - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and decline in the short term. In the medium term, the domestic mine operating rate is capped, and the supply - demand contradiction may improve during the Spring Festival [20]. - **Ferroalloys**: For silicon - iron, it is recommended to go long on dips in the medium term as there is a small supply gap. For manganese - silicon, it is suggested to hold short positions from previous high levels and not to enter new single - sided positions [21]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: It is advisable to wait and see for now. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new capacity production. For glass, pay attention to the implementation of production line changes and the linkage between the spot and futures markets [22]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Shanghai Lead**: It is recommended to wait and see, and hold previous short positions. The lead inventory is increasing, and the consumption is poor, but there may be some support if the price continues to decline [24]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate strongly, with demand improving and supply being restricted [25]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is under pressure at the upper limit and oscillates, waiting for opportunities to sell out - of - the - money call options. Polysilicon may continue to price the rectification of anti - involution and oscillate weakly [26]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: It is in a short - term consolidation state, and short - term trading is recommended. The supply is currently loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday restocking and the decline in开工 rates [28][29]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar market is in a season of high supply and demand, and it is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - price range. The global sugar supply is in surplus, and the domestic market is under supply pressure [30][31]. - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the pre - holiday spot price of eggs may weaken. The futures of the 02 - 03 contracts are for the post - Spring Festival off - season, with limited upside space. The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline, and the far - month contracts may weaken [32][33]. - **Apples**: The futures may run strongly. The current apple market is in a game between supply support and demand constraints, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [34][35]. - **Corn**: The price has large differences in the market, and short - term trading is recommended. The price is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policy grain release, and import supplements, and is likely to oscillate within a range [36]. - **Red Dates**: It is recommended to closely monitor the performance of the consumer market during the peak season, and currently, the market is expected to oscillate weakly [37]. - **Live Pigs**: The market sentiment has peaked, and the spot price is likely to decline. It is advisable to consider shorting near - month contracts on rallies [38]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East support the price, but the supply surplus is still severe. As the geopolitical premium fades, the price may weaken, and attention should be paid to Iran's actions [40]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price follows the trend of crude oil, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved. The short - term trading focus is on the impact of geopolitically - influenced crude oil prices [41]. - **Plastics**: Polyolefins have large supply pressure and weak demand, but the upstream losses may support a small - scale rebound. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [42]. - **Rubber**: The pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises and the upcoming suspension of production in overseas producing areas may support the price. It is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips [43]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It may oscillate strongly due to the good fundamentals of butadiene. It is recommended to go long on dips or sell put options [44]. - **Methanol**: The short - term inventory is decreasing, but there is still a risk of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. In the long term, the fundamentals are improving, and it is advisable to consider a slightly long - position configuration for far - month contracts after a pullback [46]. - **Caustic Soda**: The operating rate and inventory are high, and the price of liquid chlorine is firm, but the support from the downstream of liquid chlorine is uncertain. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [47]. - **Asphalt**: The price follows the trend of crude oil and may oscillate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the change in the premium of raw materials [48]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The market is currently strong due to sentiment and supply disruptions, but the expectation of weakening demand is increasing. It is advisable to consider positive spreads between the May and September contracts of PX and PTA on dips [49]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The geopolitical situation in Iran has eased, and the import cost provides support. In the short term, the downside space is limited, but in the long term, it is advisable to consider going short with a light position [50]. - **Pulp**: The spot market trading sentiment has weakened, and the price has corrected. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to international and macro factors [52]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the spot price has temporarily stabilized. The market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [53]. - **Urea**: The spot market trading atmosphere has worsened in the short term, but the market is still relatively optimistic about the future. It remains to be seen whether the futures can maintain a strong trend before the Spring Festival [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, different futures varieties are classified into trend short, oscillating short, oscillating, oscillating long, and trend long. Based on quantitative indicators, they are divided into short - biased, oscillating, and long - biased [5][9] - Macroeconomic policies in 2026 focus on strengthening the domestic economic cycle and expanding domestic demand. Fiscal deficits, debt, and expenditures will remain at necessary levels [11][12] - Different sectors of the futures market, such as macro - finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy - chemical, show different trends and investment opportunities [15][19][25][34][45] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental and Quantitative Analysis - **Fundamental Analysis**: Futures varieties like coke, coking coal, and CSI 1000 index futures are in a trend short or oscillating short state; varieties like lithium carbonate and 30 - year bonds are oscillating; and some varieties have an oscillating long or trend long outlook [5] - **Quantitative Analysis**: Varieties like silver futures and soybean No. 2 are short - biased; iron ore and asphalt are oscillating; and manganese silicon and methanol are long - biased [9] 2. Macroeconomic News - A series of fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand are introduced, including a 500 - billion - yuan private investment special guarantee plan and loan discount policies for small and medium - sized enterprises [11] - The Greenland crisis and fiscal pressure concerns trigger a global bond market sell - off, with significant yield increases in Japanese and US long - term bonds [12] - The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR remain unchanged in January, marking eight consecutive months of no change since May 2025 [13] 3. Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term operations should focus on volume and price, and consider profit - taking. The A - share market shows a style shift from high - valuation growth sectors to value sectors, and the stock index may enter an adjustment phase if there is no further increase in volume [15] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Ultra - long - term bonds may continue to rebound due to a decline in risk appetite. The yield curve of bonds remains steep, and there is a long - term expectation of monetary policy easing [16] 4. Black Commodities - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Macro policies have limited short - term impact on demand. Steel is in a de - stocking state, but downstream demand is weak. Iron ore supply is abundant, and short - term steel may oscillate, while iron ore is relatively weak [19][20] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may oscillate and decline in the short term. Coal mine production and downstream procurement need to be monitored. The supply - demand situation may improve during the Spring Festival [21] - **Ferroalloys**: Silicon iron has a small supply gap, and it is recommended to go long on dips. For manganese silicon, it is advisable to hold short positions from previous highs and wait and see [22][23] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. Soda ash supply is at a high level, and new capacity is expected. Glass has复产 expectations, and the supply - demand pattern may improve if production cuts are implemented smoothly [24] 5. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc inventories are increasing. It is recommended to wait and see, and previous short positions can be held [26] - **Lead**: Lead inventories are rising, and prices are falling. It is recommended to wait and see, and previous short positions can be held [27] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Demand is improving, and supply disruptions are emerging. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [30] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is under pressure at the upper limit and should be shorted on rallies. Polysilicon is expected to oscillate weakly, waiting for policy guidance [31] 6. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: There is short - term supply relaxation, but long - term supply is expected to shrink. It is recommended for short - term trading [35] - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar is in a season of high supply and demand. It is recommended for short - term trading in the low - price range [37] - **Eggs**: The pre - holiday egg spot price may weaken. It is recommended to treat the 02 - 03 contracts as oscillating [39] - **Apples**: The futures price may be strong. The market is in a game between supply support and demand constraints [40] - **Corn**: The futures price shows large differences. It is recommended for short - term trading or to consider the 5/9 reverse spread [42] - **Red Dates**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the performance in the consumption peak season [43] - **Hogs**: The market sentiment has peaked, and it is advisable to short near - month contracts on rallies [44] 7. Energy - Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East support prices, but supply is in surplus. Prices may weaken as the market returns to fundamentals [47] - **Fuel Oil**: Prices follow crude oil, and the short - term focus is on geopolitical factors [48] - **Plastics**: Polyolefins have high supply pressure. It is recommended to adopt a weak - oscillation mindset [49] - **Rubber**: Affected by falling overseas raw material prices and rising inventories, it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips [49] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It may rebound in the short term. Be cautious when chasing the rise [50] - **Methanol**: The supply - demand situation is improving. It is advisable to wait for a pullback and then consider a long position in the far - month contracts [52] - **Caustic Soda**: It should be treated with a short - biased mindset due to high production and inventory [53] - **Asphalt**: Prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and the winter storage is in a stable period [54] - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The market is strong in the short term, but demand is expected to weaken. Consider the 5 - 9 positive spread for PX and PTA [55] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Short - term prices are supported by high costs and demand, but it is advisable to short lightly in the long term [56] - **Paper Pulp**: The market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to international and macro factors [57] - **Logs**: The market is expected to be in a weak - balance state and oscillate [58] - **Urea**: The futures may rebound after a pullback as the market expects stronger demand [59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Based on fundamental analysis, some commodities are in a trend of short - selling (synthetic rubber), some are in a state of oscillating with a downward bias, oscillating, oscillating with an upward bias, and some are in a trend of long - buying. Based on quantitative indicators, some commodities are judged to have a downward trend, some are in an oscillating state, and some are in an upward trend [2][4]. - In the macro - financial sector, the stock index futures suggest short - term operation focusing on volume and price and considering profit - taking. The bond futures should be considered from an oscillating perspective [10][11]. - In the black sector, steel products may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, while iron ore is relatively weak and short - selling on rallies is recommended. Double - coking prices may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, and for ferroalloys, it is recommended to buy silicon iron on dips in the medium term and hold short positions in manganese silicon [13][15][17]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, for zinc, it is recommended to wait and see and hold existing short positions. For lead, it is also recommended to wait and see. Lithium carbonate may be in a weak oscillating state in the short term. Industrial silicon may oscillate with an upper - bound pressure, and polysilicon may oscillate weakly [20][24][25]. - In the agricultural products sector, cotton is in a short - term consolidation state and short - term trading is recommended. Sugar is in a state of oscillating and consolidating, and short - term trading in the low - price range is recommended. For eggs, the 02 - 03 contracts should be considered from an oscillating perspective. Apples may have a strong trend on the futures market. Corn should be traded short - term, focusing on port collection. Jujubes are expected to oscillate, and the market performance during the consumption peak season should be closely monitored. For live pigs, it is advisable to short - sell near - month contracts on rallies [28][30][32][34][36][37][38]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil may turn weak. Plastics should be considered from a weak oscillating perspective. Rubber can sell out - of - the - money put options on dips. Synthetic rubber may turn weak in the short term. Methanol may have a short - term correction, and long positions can be considered for far - month contracts after the correction. Caustic soda should be considered from a short - selling perspective. The polyester industry chain is under pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered in the short term. LPG may have short - term upward momentum but limited long - term upside space. Pulp and logs are expected to oscillate. Urea futures may trade the expectation of strong demand after a correction [41][42][43][45][46][47][50][51][52]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Information - China's GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year - on - year to 140.19 trillion yuan, with a 4.5% growth in the fourth quarter. The added value of industries above the designated size increased by 5.9%, and the added value of the service industry increased by 5.4%. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 52%. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with real - estate development investment decreasing by 17.2%. The population decreased by 339,000 in 2025 [6]. - In December 2025, housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month and the year - on - year decline widened. In the second - hand housing market, prices in all 70 cities fell month - on - month. In the new housing market, Shanghai was the only first - tier city with both month - on - month and year - on - year price increases [6]. - The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and also raised the growth forecasts for China, the United States, the Eurozone, and Japan [8]. 3.2 Macro - finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - On Monday, the A - share market oscillated with a shrinking volume, and the main indices showed different trends. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to 4114 points. The trading volume was 2.73 trillion yuan, down from 3.06 trillion yuan the previous day. If the recent trend does not form a reverse - enveloping negative line with increased volume, the stock index may enter an adjustment phase [10]. 3.2.2 Bond Futures - The money market is balanced and slightly loose near the tax payment period. The short - end is supported by the money market, while the ultra - long - end is weak. After the structural interest - rate cut, the short - term possibility of an interest - rate cut has decreased significantly, but the long - term easing expectation has been repaired. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating strategy [11][12]. 3.3 Black 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - From a policy perspective, macro - policies such as interest - rate cuts are slightly positive, but have limited short - term impact on demand. From a fundamental perspective, steel is in a de - stocking state, and the current order situation is okay. However, downstream demand is still weak. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the market is relatively loose. In general, steel may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, while iron ore is relatively weak [13]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Recently, coal mine production has increased slightly, and Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased. Mainstream coking enterprises have initiated the first round of price increases, but steel mills are resistant. In the short term, double - coking prices may oscillate and consolidate, and the impact of coal mine production, safety inspections, downstream procurement, and changes in molten iron production should be noted [15]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - The black market sentiment is weak, and double - silicon is operating weakly. However, the medium - term price fluctuation center is still rising slightly. It is recommended to buy silicon iron on dips in the medium term and hold short positions in manganese silicon [17]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Recently, the supply of soda ash has returned to a high level, and the market expects new production capacity to be put into operation. The market has a stronger expectation of glass production line restart. It is recommended to wait and see at present [18]. 3.4 Non - ferrous and New Materials 3.4.1 Zinc - As of January 19, the domestic zinc inventory increased. It is recommended to wait and see and hold existing short positions. The main reasons for the price decline are the expectation of inventory accumulation, weak demand, and the fading of macro - positive factors [20][21]. 3.4.2 Lead - As of January 19, the social inventory of lead ingots rose to a nearly two - month high. It is recommended to wait and see. The weak consumption and the increase in inventory due to transportation problems are the main factors affecting the price [21][23]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - Under strong supervision, the market sentiment has declined, and lithium carbonate is expected to operate in a weak oscillating state in the short term. The market needs data to verify the actual demand and guide the price [24]. 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon may oscillate with an upper - bound pressure. Polysilicon may oscillate weakly, and the improvement measures on January 20 should be awaited [25]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - The short - term supply of cotton is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The contradiction between pre - festival replenishment and the decline in production start - up has led to a short - term consolidation of Zheng cotton. Short - term trading is recommended [28]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The domestic sugar market is in a season of strong supply and demand. Zheng sugar is oscillating and consolidating, and short - term trading in the low - price range is recommended [30]. 3.5.3 Eggs - As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg - stocking intensity may peak and then weaken, and the pre - festival spot price may weaken. The 02 - 03 contracts should be considered from an oscillating perspective. The far - month contracts may be expected to weaken due to the increase in replenishment enthusiasm [32]. 3.5.4 Apples - The apple futures market may be strong. The current market is in a game between "supply support" and "demand restraint". The price is expected to oscillate within a range [34][35]. 3.5.5 Corn - The corn futures market has large differences in views. It is recommended to focus on port collection and conduct short - term trading. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, and the key observation point is the concentrated release of grain sales in March [36]. 3.5.6 Jujubes - Jujubes are expected to oscillate. The market performance during the consumption peak season should be closely monitored, and attention should be paid to the changes in the sales area's sales rhythm and the mentality of purchasers [37]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The supply - side slaughter progress is slow, and the short - term spot price is strong, but the upward space is limited. It is advisable to short - sell near - month contracts on rallies [38]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Frequent geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have supported the rise in crude oil prices, but recently, the panic has subsided, and the oil price has weakened. The supply surplus problem is still severe, and the market may return to fundamental trading. The Iranian situation needs to be closely monitored [41]. 3.6.2 Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and weak downstream demand. It is recommended to consider a weak oscillating strategy and beware of callback risks [42]. 3.6.3 Rubber - Affected by the decline in overseas raw material prices and inventory accumulation, the rubber market has weakened. However, pre - festival downstream replenishment and the approaching of the overseas production area's shutdown season may support the market. It is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips [42]. 3.6.4 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber may turn weak in the short term. It is advisable to stop losses and wait and see when the short - selling price drops to a low level [43]. 3.6.5 Methanol - The actual supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly, and short - term de - stocking is smooth. However, there is still a possibility of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. In the long term, the fundamentals are improving. It is advisable to wait for the far - month contracts to adjust and then consider long positions [43][44]. 3.6.6 Caustic Soda - The caustic soda industry has a high start - up rate and high inventory. The price of liquid chlorine is strong, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali enterprises is okay, so there is no motivation to cut production. It is recommended to consider a short - selling strategy [45]. 3.6.7 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is under pressure due to the weakening demand. In the short term, short - selling on rallies can be considered, and in the medium term, positive spreads between May and September contracts of PX and PTA can be considered [46]. 3.6.8 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG has fallen after rising, affected by the easing of crude oil and geopolitical conflicts, but the price center has still moved up. In the short term, it has upward momentum, but the long - term upside space is limited. Light - position short - selling can be considered [47]. 3.6.9 Pulp - As downstream replenishment ends, the pulp market has weakened. However, the strong overseas prices and the relatively stable fundamentals provide support. The market is expected to oscillate [50]. 3.6.10 Logs - The fundamentals of logs are weakly oscillating, and the spot price is temporarily stable. The market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the futures market is expected to oscillate [51]. 3.6.11 Urea - In the short term, the spot market for urea has weakened, but the futures market still has strong expectations. The futures may trade the expectation of strong demand after a correction [52].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly inventory report of manganese ore at Tianjin Port (Tianjin Zhenhong's perspective) [1] Group 2: Inventory Data - Total inventory this week is 2,995,804 tons, compared to 2,934,578 tons last week, with an increase of 61,226 tons [2] - Outbound volume is 516,425 tons, and inbound volume is 577,651 tons [2] - Gabon inventory is 157,690 tons, a decrease of 46,665 tons, accounting for 5.26% of the total [2] - Australian inventory is 294,800 tons, a decrease of 11,549 tons, accounting for 9.84% [2] - South African inventory is 1,915,041 tons, accounting for 67.55% [2] - Ghanaian inventory is 327,669 tons, a decrease of 12,700 tons, accounting for 10.94% [2] - Other inventory is 191,915 tons, accounting for 6.41% [2] Group 3: Data Sources - Data sources are Tianjin Zhenhong and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [6]