Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market shows a trend of rising and then falling, with the stock index facing issues such as insufficient trading volume and weak short - term technical trends. The bond market is affected by factors like Vanke's bond default and new regulations on public fund sales, and is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. [9][10] - In the black metal market, steel and ore are expected to oscillate in the short - term and remain bearish in the medium - to - long - term. Coal and coke prices may continue their weak oscillation in the short - term. For ferroalloys, there are opportunities to go long on ferrosilicon and engage in the "long ferrosilicon, short manganese silicon" arbitrage. [12][14][15] - In the non - ferrous and new materials market, zinc and lead prices are in a downward oscillation trend, with suggestions to hold short positions cautiously. Lithium carbonate shows wide - range oscillations, while industrial silicon and polysilicon continue to oscillate. [19][20][22] - In the agricultural products market, cotton oscillates and rebounds, sugar is under pressure but with cost support, eggs are expected to oscillate, apples are expected to be slightly bullish, and corn, dates, and live pigs have their own market characteristics and trends. [27][28][31] - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is in a long - term downward trend, fuel oil follows oil price fluctuations, plastics are in a weak oscillation, and other energy and chemical products also have their own market outlooks. [40][41][43] Summaries by Directory Macro News - The State Council executive meeting chaired by Premier Li Qiang discussed multiple important matters, including promoting high - quality development, medical insurance, and relevant regulations. Vanke's stocks and bonds declined sharply. China and Malaysia communicated on the "Malaysia - US Equivalent Trade Agreement". The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade will organize a business delegation to visit the US in early December. From January to October, the national industrial enterprise profits increased year - on - year, but decreased in October. The NDRC studied price - related work. Putin stated that the US delegation will visit Moscow, and the ECB strengthened the expectation of the end of the interest - rate cut cycle. [6][7] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt an oscillation strategy and temporarily wait and see. The A - share market rose and then fell, with issues such as insufficient trading volume. The selection of the Fed chairman is in the final stage. The short - term decline may lead to a rebound, but the market's anti - fragility is insufficient. [9] Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market is affected by Vanke's bond default and new regulations on public fund sales. The current capital situation is generally loose, and the bond market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. [10] Black Metal Steel and Ore - In terms of policy, pay attention to the impact of the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference on the macro - expectations of the market next year. On the fundamental side, the demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is good. The supply side may see a decline in molten iron production, and the inventory is still at a high level compared to last year. The valuation of iron ore is relatively strong, and steel prices are likely to remain weak. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is bearish. [11][12] Coal and Coke - Prices may continue their weak oscillation in the short - term. Pay attention to the impact of coal mine production, safety supervision, and changes in molten iron production. [14] Ferroalloys - The ferrosilicon market has opportunities to go long in the medium - to - long - term, and pay attention to the "long ferrosilicon, short manganese silicon" arbitrage. In the short - term, pay attention to the impact of electricity settlement in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia on the market. [15] Non - ferrous and New Materials Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory has decreased. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels or take profits temporarily and operate cyclically. The zinc price is in a downward oscillation trend with the possibility of a phased rebound. [19] Lead - The domestic lead inventory has decreased, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously. The lead price has a slight rebound, and the import lead trading activity is not high. [20][21] Lithium Carbonate - The short - term trend is in wide - range oscillations, with a game between short - term bearishness and long - term optimism. The recent demand shows signs of weakening, but the long - term demand is still promising. [22] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has limited downward adjustment space and continues to oscillate. Polysilicon also continues to oscillate, and it is necessary to be cautious when chasing long positions. [23] Agricultural Products Cotton - Affected by factors such as large supply pressure and weak demand, it oscillates and rebounds. The USDA report is bearish, and the domestic supply pressure remains. The valuation of Zhengzhou cotton futures is lower than the spot price, supporting its rebound. [27][28] Sugar - The domestic and international sugar markets are under pressure from supply surplus, but cost support limits the decline. It is recommended to wait and see. [28][29] Eggs - The inventory of laying hens is high, and consumption has not improved significantly. The spot price is expected to be weak. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to short at high levels with proper position control. [31] Apples - The apple market is expected to be slightly bullish. The apple storage is nearly finished, and the出库 has started. The inventory is lower than last year, and attention should be paid to consumption dynamics. [33] Corn - Pay attention to the upper pressure on the futures price. The current price increase is due to "supply - demand mismatch", and the spot price may回调, but the decline space is limited. [35] Dates - It is recommended to wait and see. The prices in production and sales areas are stable at a low level, and the futures price is weak. [36][37] Live Pigs - In the short - term, the supply pressure increases, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to short at high levels for near - month contracts. In the long - term, the decline in the number of breeding sows is beneficial to future pig prices. [38] Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - The oil price is in a long - term downward trend, affected by factors such as EIA inventory accumulation and geopolitical negotiations. It is recommended to short at high levels. [40] Fuel Oil - It follows the oil price fluctuations. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the impact of sanctions on Russia and the OPEC+ meeting. [41] Plastics - The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to adopt a weak - oscillation strategy. [43] Rubber - It is recommended to take profits appropriately for the ru - nr spread. It is short - term bullish due to weather factors, and it is necessary to be cautious when chasing high prices. [44] Synthetic Rubber - It may still have downward space. It is recommended to short at high levels. The restart of maintenance devices at the end of the month and in December may put further pressure on the price. [45] Methanol - The near - month and far - month contracts are recommended to adopt an oscillation strategy. If the inventory reduction is smooth, a slightly long - position configuration can be considered. [46] Caustic Soda - The spot price is weak, and it is recommended to adopt an oscillation strategy. [47] Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the price bottom after the winter storage game. [48] Polyester Industry Chain - It is expected to continue the oscillation adjustment in the short - term, affected by factors such as the decline in blending oil sentiment and weakening terminal demand. [50] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - It may turn from strong to weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is limited. The weakening of oil prices may accelerate its decline. [50] Pulp - The fundamentals are stable, and it is expected to enter an oscillation stage. It is recommended to wait and see. [51] Logs - The fundamentals are weakly bearish, and the price is under pressure. The inventory is expected to increase, and the market is in the off - season. [52] Urea - The现货 price may oscillate strongly, and the futures market may have short - term emotional trading. It is recommended to adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy. [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall economic outlook is mixed, with most Fed districts reporting flat economic activity, some facing a risk of slowdown, and others showing slight growth or decline [8]. - The steel and ore market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - to long - term [11][13]. - The bond market is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations [11]. - In the agricultural sector, different products have different trends, such as cotton in low - level oscillations, sugar under supply pressure, and eggs with high inventory and limited upside potential [26][28][29]. - In the energy and chemical industry, oil prices are in a long - term downward trend, and various products' prices follow different factors such as geopolitical events and supply - demand relationships [37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - information - China and the EU discussed semiconductor and other economic and trade issues, aiming to restore the semiconductor supply chain [6]. - Vanke faced a "double - kill" in stocks and bonds, and a bond展期 meeting will be held [6]. - Six departments issued a plan to boost consumer goods consumption, targeting specific consumption areas by 2027 [6]. - The Chinese non - ferrous metals association opposed zero or negative processing fees in copper smelting and managed copper smelting capacity [7]. - Treasury companies that hoarded cryptocurrencies suffered a "double - kill" in stock and coin prices [7]. - NVIDIA denied accounting fraud accusations [7]. - The Fed's economic activity was mostly flat, with some areas showing decline or growth, and the risk of slowdown increased [8]. - US economic data showed mixed results, including changes in jobless claims, durable goods orders [8][9]. - Japan's central bank may raise interest rates [8]. Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a volatile mindset and temporarily hold off on trading. The A - share market had mixed performance, with military stocks falling and some concepts rising. Vanke's situation affected the market [10]. Treasury Futures - The bond market is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations. Although there were sharp fluctuations, the short - term nature was high, considering factors like capital and fundamentals [11]. Steel and Ore - Short - term: expected to be volatile; Medium - to long - term: bearish. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for some plate products is okay. Supply may decline, and inventory is relatively high. Valuation shows that steel prices are likely to be weak [11][12][13]. Agriculture Cotton - Under the influence of large supply pressure and weak demand, it is in low - level oscillations, with high costs providing some support [26]. Sugar - Facing supply pressure, the price is under downward pressure, but cost provides a limit. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. Eggs - The near - month futures contracts are under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rebounds with caution. High inventory and weak consumption are the main factors, but there are positive expectations for the long - term [29][30]. Apples - Expected to be slightly bullish. The acquisition season has ended, and the market is now in the outbound stage. Prices are stable, and inventory and consumption need attention [31]. Corn - Pay attention to the upper pressure on the futures price. The current rise is due to "supply - demand mismatch," and there may be a correction in the spot price [33]. Red Dates - Temporarily wait and see. The prices in production and sales areas are stable, and the futures price is weak [34]. Pigs - In the short - term, supply pressure increases, and the price is weak. In the long - term, the decline in the number of sows is positive for prices [35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - In a long - term downward trend, it is advisable to short on rallies. Geopolitical events and supply - demand expectations affect the price [37]. Fuel Oil - The price fluctuates with the oil price. Supply is loose, and demand is flat. Geopolitical and macro factors are the main drivers [39]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to be weak and volatile due to large supply and weak demand, but production losses may provide some support [40]. Rubber - The price difference between ru and nr may widen. Pay attention to Southeast Asian weather and raw material supply [41]. Synthetic Rubber - The short - term price is weak. It is advisable to hold short - call strategies or short on rallies [42]. Methanol - Near - month contracts: temporarily weak and volatile; Far - month contracts: turn to a volatile trend. Pay attention to inventory and import arrivals [43][44]. Caustic Soda - Keep a volatile mindset. The spot price is weakening, and the futures price is controlled by bears [45]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase. Pay attention to the price bottom after the winter storage game [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - The price is adjusting strongly due to improved sentiment and supply - demand structure. Different products in the chain have different supply - demand situations [47]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The short - term bullish factors are fully realized, and the price may turn weak. It is affected by supply, demand, and oil price trends [48]. Paper Pulp - Enter a range - bound stage. It is advisable to wait and see. The fundamentals are stable, and supply and demand are in a weak balance [49][50]. Logs - The fundamentals are weakly bearish. The spot price is under pressure, and the market is expected to be in a weak supply - demand balance [51]. Urea - The spot price may be bullish, and the futures market may have short - term emotional trading. Keep a wide - range volatile mindset [52]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Hold short positions at high levels. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is affected by macro and inventory factors [18]. Lead - Hold short positions cautiously. The price is falling, and the inventory is decreasing. Import and export data show certain trends [19][20][21]. Lithium Carbonate - In wide - range fluctuations. The short - term is affected by the game between weak fundamentals and long - term optimistic expectations [22]. Industrial Silicon - Continue to oscillate. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the adjustment space is limited [23]. Polysilicon - Continue to oscillate. Buy on dips. The supply - demand contradiction is weaker than the policy expectation contradiction [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economic and political situation is complex, with multiple factors influencing various markets. The end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, US policies on AI and energy, and China's economic policies all have an impact on different industries [8][9][10]. - Different industries are in different states, with some facing supply - demand imbalances, price fluctuations, and policy - related uncertainties. For example, the steel and coal industries are affected by production policies and demand changes, while the agricultural and energy - chemical industries are influenced by factors such as weather, international relations, and seasonal demand [17][19][40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - Trump's team has made progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace plan, and an envoy will meet with Putin. Ukraine hopes for Zelensky's early visit to the US to finalize the agreement [8]. - China - US leaders' call is positive for bilateral relations. China will hold a policy briefing on promoting consumer goods consumption [8]. - Alibaba's 2026 fiscal second - quarter revenue increased by 5% year - on - year, but adjusted net profit decreased by 72%. China promotes commercial aerospace development, and a new mobile power standard is expected to be released next year [9]. - Trump launches the "Genesis Mission" to promote AI innovation. The US had a large budget deficit in October due to the government "shutdown". The selection of the Fed chairman is in the final stage [10]. - US inflation rebounded in September, and retail sales growth slowed. Local government special bonds are being issued for investment funds [11]. Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt a volatile mindset and temporarily wait and see. A - shares rebounded, but the market showed signs of weakness in the afternoon. The selection of the Fed chairman may affect the market, and the short - term decline may lead to a possible rebound, but the index's anti - fragility is insufficient [13][14]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Maintain a bullish view on the bond market. The central bank's monetary policy may be further strengthened, and attention should be paid to the central bank's bond - buying in November and exchange rate changes [15]. Black - **Steel and Ore**: In the short term, expect volatility or a rebound; in the medium - to - long term, maintain a bearish view on rallies. Pay attention to macro - policies and the demand and supply situation. Currently, real estate demand is weak, while some industrial demand shows improvement. Steel mills' profits are low, and inventory is relatively high [17][18]. - **Coal and Coke**: Prices may continue to be weakly volatile in the short term. Coal production may be affected by safety regulations and environmental factors, and the potential negative feedback from weak steel demand restricts prices [19][20]. - **Ferroalloys**: The silicon - iron may be a better long - term investment option compared to manganese - silicon. Currently, the silicon - iron has a stronger marginal change in fundamentals at low prices, and there is a possibility of more significant production cuts [21]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Zinc**: Hold short positions at high levels. Zinc prices are in a volatile downward trend with possible rebounds, affected by macro factors and inventory changes. Domestic processing fees are falling, and downstream demand is cautious [24]. - **Lead**: Hold short positions cautiously. Lead prices are weakly volatile, and social inventory is decreasing due to supply shortages in some regions. Import trading is not active [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, it will be strongly volatile. Although there are signs of weakening demand in the short term, long - term demand is still positive, attracting funds [27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Continue to trade in a range. Supply and demand are in a weak balance, and the valuation is relatively low, with limited downward adjustment space [27]. - **Polysilicon**: Trade in a range and buy on dips. The supply - demand contradiction is weaker than the policy - expectation contradiction, and the spot price is firm [28]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Trade in a low - level range. Supply pressure and weak demand coexist, but high costs resist price declines [30]. - **Sugar**: The price trend is bearish, but cost support limits the decline. Global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and domestic new - sugar supply is increasing [32]. - **Eggs**: The spot price may be weak, and the near - month futures contract is under pressure. The long - term outlook is positive due to the decline in laying - hen inventory, but the short - term supply pressure remains high [33][34]. - **Apples**: The price trend is strongly volatile. The acquisition season is over, and inventory and consumption will affect future prices [34][35]. - **Corn**: Temporarily wait and see. The current price increase is due to supply - demand mismatch, and there may be a correction in the future, but the decline space is limited [36]. - **Jujubes**: Temporarily wait and see. The production - area prices are stable, and the sales - area prices have increased slightly [37]. - **Pigs**: In the short term, the supply pressure is increasing, and the price is weakly volatile. In the long term, the decline in sow inventory is beneficial to future prices [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Consider shorting on rallies. The end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict may lead to a more significant supply - demand imbalance, and the long - term price trend is downward [40]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the trend of crude oil. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak, and the focus is on the impact of sanctions on Russia [42]. - **Plastic**: Adopt a weakly volatile mindset. The supply pressure is high, but production losses may provide some support [42][43]. - **Rubber**: Pay attention to Southeast Asian weather. The domestic supply is decreasing, and the price is in a volatile range [44]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is weakly volatile in the short term, and there is downward pressure in the long term [45]. - **Methanol**: In the near - term, adopt a weakly volatile mindset; in the long - term, wait for a rally to go long. The supply pressure is high, and the impact of imports needs to be observed [46][47]. - **Caustic Soda**: Adopt a volatile mindset. The spot price is weak, but low futures prices and few warehouse receipts may provide some support [48]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation may increase. Pay attention to the end of the demand season, refinery production changes, and international oil supply [49]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The price will follow the cost trend and is expected to be weakly volatile. Although the supply - demand structure has improved marginally, the cost support is weak [50]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The short - term strength may turn weak. The supply is abundant, and the impact of the decline in oil prices needs to be considered [51]. - **Paper Pulp**: Enter a range - bound stage. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is stable, so it is recommended to wait and see [51]. - **Logs**: The price is under pressure. The inventory is expected to increase, and the market is in a weak balance [52]. - **Urea**: The spot price may be weakly volatile, and the futures market may experience short - term basis regression [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. However, for individual commodities, there are bias - based ratings: - Commodities with a "偏空" (bearish) bias: Corn starch, Corn, Palm oil, Zhengzhou cotton, etc. [4] - Commodities with a "偏多" (bullish) bias: Methanol, Shanghai aluminum, Asphalt, etc. [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro - economy**: Sino - US relations are generally stable and positive. The central bank's MLF operations show a moderately loose monetary policy. The US and Ukraine have a new peace - agreement draft, and the US economic data release is postponed. Some Fed officials advocate for a December interest - rate cut [6][7][8]. - **Financial Markets**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt a volatile mindset and stay on the sidelines for now. The A - share market is volatile, and the index shows limited anti - fragility [10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Maintain a bullish view on the bond market, as the LPR quote is in line with expectations, and monetary easing may come later but is likely to occur [11]. - **Black Commodities**: - **Steel and Ore**: Short - term volatility or rebound is expected, and a bearish mindset is maintained for the medium - to - long - term. Pay attention to macro - policy expectations and the fundamentals of supply and demand [12][13]. - **Coal and Coke**: Prices may continue to be weakly volatile in the short - term, with potential supply contractions in the long - term but short - term supply increases and demand weakening [14][15]. - **Ferroalloys**: Long - term attention can be paid to the opportunity to go long on ferrosilicon, and for manganese silicon, stay on the sidelines for now. Consider the "long ferrosilicon, short manganese silicon" arbitrage opportunity [15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: - **Zinc**: Hold short positions at high levels. Zinc prices are in a volatile downward trend with potential for short - term rebounds [19]. - **Lead**: Hold short positions cautiously. Lead prices are in a downward trend, and social inventories are decreasing [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term price is weak, but long - term demand is expected to support the price [21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both are expected to continue to move in a volatile manner, with no prominent supply - demand contradictions [22][23]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: Prices are in a low - level volatile state, with high supply pressure and weak demand in the short - term [25][26]. - **Sugar**: The supply - demand situation is bearish, and prices are under pressure, but cost support limits the decline [26][27]. - **Eggs**: Spot prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to wait for a rebound to go short [28][29]. - **Apples**: Prices are expected to move in a volatile manner [30]. - **Corn**: Observe the upward pressure on the futures price. The current price increase is due to supply - demand mismatch, and there may be a correction in the future [31][32]. - **Jujubes**: Stay on the sidelines for now [33]. - **Pigs**: In the short - term, supply pressure is increasing, and prices are expected to be weak. In the long - term, a decline in the number of sows is beneficial to future prices [33][34]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Prices are in a long - term downward trend, and it is advisable to try short positions at high levels [36]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices, and the supply - demand structure is loose [37][38]. - **Plastics**: Prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with supply pressure and some cost support [39]. - **Rubber**: Pay attention to Southeast Asian weather conditions, and there is a logic for the ru - nr spread to widen [40]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term trend is weak, and it is advisable to hold short positions [41]. - **Methanol**: The short - term trend is weakly volatile, and it is advisable to wait for a rebound to go long in the long - term [42]. - **Caustic Soda**: Adopt a volatile mindset [44]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation range is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the price bottom after the winter - storage game [44][45]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The short - term trend is strong, but the upward space is limited [46]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Prices are expected to turn weak from strong [46][47]. - **Pulp**: Prices are expected to enter a volatile range, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [47][48]. - **Logs**: The short - term trend is bearish [49]. - **Urea**: Prices are expected to move in a wide - range volatile manner [49]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro News - On the evening of November 24th, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, emphasizing the positive development of Sino - US relations and China's stance on the Taiwan issue [6] - The central bank will conduct 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations on November 25th, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan, indicating a moderately loose monetary policy [6] - Industrial Fubon clarified market rumors, stating normal operations in the fourth quarter [7] - Xiaomi's founder, Lei Jun, increased his shareholding by over HK$100 million, and the company repurchased shares [7] - China will implement a space exploration satellite plan during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [7] - The US and Ukraine completed a 19 - point peace - agreement draft, but sensitive issues remain to be decided [8] - The US cancelled the release plan for the third - quarter GDP forecast, and inflation data will be released on December 5th [8] - Some Fed officials advocate for a December interest - rate cut [8] Stock Index Futures - Adopt a volatile mindset and stay on the sidelines. The A - share market is volatile, and the index shows limited anti - fragility. Overseas data and market sentiment affect the index [10] Treasury Bond Futures - Maintain a bullish view on the bond market. The LPR quote is in line with expectations, and monetary easing may come later. Pay attention to the central bank's bond - buying situation this month [11][12] Black Commodities Steel and Ore - From a policy perspective, pay attention to the impact of the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference on market expectations. Fundamentally, demand is weak in the building materials sector but good in the coil sector. Supply is under pressure, and inventory is high. The short - term trend is volatile or with a rebound, and the medium - to - long - term trend is bearish [12][13] Coal and Coke - Prices may continue to be weakly volatile in the short - term. Supply may increase in the short - term but is expected to contract in the long - term. Demand is supported in the short - term, but potential negative feedback risks exist [14][15] Ferroalloys - Recommend long - term attention to the opportunity to go long on ferrosilicon, stay on the sidelines for manganese silicon, and consider the "long ferrosilicon, short manganese silicon" arbitrage opportunity [15] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Hold short positions at high levels. Zinc prices are in a volatile downward trend, with domestic inventory decreasing and processing fees falling [19] Lead - Hold short positions cautiously. Lead prices are in a downward trend, and social inventory is decreasing. Import and export data show changes [20] Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price is weak, but long - term demand is expected to support the price. Market sentiment is cooling, and prices will return to the fundamental level [21] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Both are expected to continue to move in a volatile manner, with no prominent supply - demand contradictions. Industrial silicon has a weak supply - demand situation, and polysilicon has expectations for anti - involution policies [22][23] Agricultural Products Cotton - Prices are in a low - level volatile state, with high supply pressure and weak demand in the short - term. International and domestic supply and demand data show different trends [25][26] Sugar - The supply - demand situation is bearish, and prices are under pressure, but cost support limits the decline. International and domestic supply is abundant [26][27] Eggs - Spot prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to wait for a rebound to go short. The supply - demand situation is loose, and the inventory is high [28][29] Apples - Prices are expected to move in a volatile manner. The apple - storage season is ending, and consumption will affect future prices [30] Corn - Observe the upward pressure on the futures price. The current price increase is due to supply - demand mismatch, and there may be a correction in the future [31][32] Jujubes - Stay on the sidelines for now. The prices in production and sales areas are changing [33] Pigs - In the short - term, supply pressure is increasing, and prices are expected to be weak. In the long - term, a decline in the number of sows is beneficial to future prices [33][34] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Prices are in a long - term downward trend, and it is advisable to try short positions at high levels. Geopolitical factors and supply - demand expectations affect prices [36] Fuel Oil - Prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices, and the supply - demand structure is loose. Pay attention to refinery maintenance and supply changes [37][38] Plastics - Prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with supply pressure and some cost support. The supply - demand situation is weak [39] Rubber - Pay attention to Southeast Asian weather conditions, and there is a logic for the ru - nr spread to widen. The domestic supply is approaching the end of the season [40] Synthetic Rubber - The short - term trend is weak, and it is advisable to hold short positions. The cost is falling, and the inventory is high [41] Methanol - The short - term trend is weakly volatile, and it is advisable to wait for a rebound to go long in the long - term. Pay attention to import arrivals and inventory changes [42] Caustic Soda - Adopt a volatile mindset. The spot price is weakening, and the futures market shows changes in positions [44] Asphalt - The price fluctuation range is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the price bottom after the winter - storage game. Pay attention to crude oil prices and refinery production [44][45] Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term trend is strong, but the upward space is limited. The macro - environment and supply - demand structure affect the industry [46] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Prices are expected to turn weak from strong. The supply is abundant, and the demand is affected by the season [46][47] Pulp - Prices are expected to enter a volatile range, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines. The inventory is increasing, and the demand is stable [47][48] Logs - The short - term trend is bearish. The inventory is increasing, and the market is in the off - season [49] Urea - Prices are expected to move in a wide - range volatile manner. The spot price is stable, and the futures market shows position changes [49]

中泰期货成品油周报20251122 ——原油转弱，成品油出口利润维持高位，国内柴油裂解利润回升。 中泰期货股份有限公司 张晓军 从业资格号：F3037698 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0020721 中泰期货 2 0 2 5 年 1 1 月 2 2 日 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 目 录 CONTENTS 03 02 05 04 01 成品油价格解析 成品油供应解析 成品油需求解析 成品油库存解析 市场综述 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 0 成品油综述 | 供应 | ①炼厂开工主营回落，地炼回升，主营炼厂开工率继续回落至76%，山东地炼开工率54%左右，主营开工仍趋于下滑， | | --- | --- | | | 地炼开工预期回升但受配额限制，本周炼厂（恒力、荣盛、盛虹）提前批配额下发，其他炼厂的配额仍未发放，炼厂 | | | 整体供应预计边际回落。 | | | ②地炼柴汽比维持高位，后期仍是以柴油为主。 | | 需求 | ①市场成交:山东地炼汽油产销比周度平均75%，柴油产销率平均为85%。成交以刚需为主，汽油维持平淡，柴油产销冲 | | | 高后再度回归平稳，后期柴油仍会维持偏强，但需求仍偏弱。 | | 库 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is currently in a state where port inventories are continuously accumulating, and with the expectation of increased future arrivals, market sentiment has significantly declined. Hedging positions have gradually entered the market. The fundamentals of pulp are relatively stable, and the spot market transactions are steady. In the short - term, it is difficult for factory demand to show significant improvement. The far - month contracts are facing pressure after reaching the hedging points of Ural and European softwood pulp. As port inventories continue to accumulate and future arrivals are expected to increase, market sentiment has clearly cooled down. Hedging positions have entered the market one after another, the intention to register warrants has increased, and long - position confidence has weakened, leading to a reduction in positions and an exit from the market. It is expected that pulp will enter a range - bound stage [20]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1 Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - **Domestic Production**: In the week of November 21, 2025, the production of domestic hardwood pulp was 230,000 tons, a slight increase of 0.10 tons compared to the previous week, with a year - to - date decrease of 0.87%. The production of chemimechanical pulp was 237,000 tons, an increase of 0.10 tons from the previous week [11]. - **Imports**: In October 2025, China's total pulp imports were 2.618 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. The cumulative imports for the year were 29.679 billion tons, a year - to - date increase of 4.8%. Affected by the decrease in working days in October and possible vessel - schedule control by some foreign suppliers, domestic imports declined more than expected in October. However, overseas shipments did not show significant changes. Hardwood pulp shipments increased in September, and it is expected that arrivals will increase in November [11]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - **Demand**: Terminal demand remained unchanged, and downstream production was stable. In the week of November 20, 2025, the production of various downstream paper products was relatively stable. It is expected that downstream production will be supported during the year - end small peak season [13]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories were in a state of oscillating accumulation due to increased arrivals and rigid - demand procurement from downstream. Warehouse receipt inventories were in a state of destocking. With the relatively low price of the November contract, the intention to buy for delivery increased, and warehouse receipts were gradually cancelled, but the pressure of remaining old warehouse receipts was still large [13]. 1.3 Price and Spread - **Quotations**: Market research shows that after the Chongqing ordering meeting, external quotations are expected to rise, with both softwood and hardwood pulp increasing by $20. - **Spot Prices**: After the price increase, spot transactions weakened, and market sentiment cooled down. With the rapid accumulation of port inventories, some softwood pulp spot prices were gradually reduced, while hardwood pulp prices were relatively firm due to arrival schedules and rigid - demand procurement. - **Futures Prices**: The pulp fundamentals were relatively stable, and spot transactions were steady. The far - month contracts faced pressure after reaching the hedging points of Ural and European softwood pulp. With the continuous accumulation of port inventories and the expectation of increased future arrivals, market sentiment clearly declined, and hedging positions entered the market, leading to a decline in the futures market [15]. 1.4 Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The cost of domestic hardwood pulp was relatively stable, while the import cost of pulp was expected to increase in the next round. - **Profit**: The profit of domestic pulp was expected to increase slightly, while the profit of imported pulp was expected to be further squeezed. The profit of paper products was expected to be relatively stable [17]. 1.5 Strategy Recommendation - Given the current situation where there are no obvious contradictions in the market, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach. In a wide - range oscillating pattern, if one holds deliverable spot goods with appropriate costs, they can sell call options or accumulate put options on the 03 contract when prices are high. If one wants to purchase goods at a low price, they can sell put options or accumulate call options when prices are low to achieve cost - reduction and high - point hedging [20]. Part 2 Pulp Balance Sheet The report provides a detailed pulp balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including supply (domestic production, imports), demand (downstream production, pulp consumption), and inventory (port inventory, warehouse receipt inventory) data, as well as their cumulative values and year - on - year changes [23]. Part 3 Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Information on global pulp shipments is presented, but no specific data is provided in the summary for brevity. - **Demand and Inventory**: Information on European pulp apparent demand and inventory is presented, but no specific data is provided in the summary for brevity. 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: - **Imports**: The report provides data on the import volume of various types of pulp (softwood, hardwood, chemimechanical pulp, etc.) and wood chips (softwood chips, hardwood chips) from 2022 to 2025, including monthly and cumulative data and year - on - year changes [42][45][65]. - **Production Capacity and Planned Investments**: A large number of domestic paper - making enterprises' production capacity expansion and new project investment plans are listed, including the production capacity, location, and expected commissioning time of each project [98]. - **Demand - side**: - **Apparent Demand**: Data on the apparent demand of various types of paper products (toilet paper, offset paper, coated paper, white cardboard) from 2022 to 2025 are provided [137][138][140][142]. - **Export and Import**: Data on the import, export, and cumulative import and export volume of various types of paper products from 2022 to 2025 are provided [101][118][127]. - **Inventory - side**: Data on the total inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and port - specific inventory of domestic pulp from 2022 to 2025 are provided [147][150][153]. Part 4 Cost and Profit - **Import Cost and Profit**: Information on the import cost and profit of pulp is provided, but no specific data is provided in the summary for brevity. - **Domestic Pulp Production Cost and Profit**: Information on the production cost and profit of domestic pulp is provided, but no specific data is provided in the summary for brevity. Part 5 Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - **External Quotations**: Information on the external quotations of pulp is provided, but no specific data is provided in the summary for brevity. - **Seasonal Price and Spread**: The report provides seasonal price and spread data for various types of pulp (Silver Star, Russian Needle, Goldfish, etc.) from 2022 to 2025, including price seasonal charts, spread seasonal charts, and basis charts [177][179][183].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro - Financial**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for stock index futures and maintain a bullish view on the bond market. For stock index futures, the market is volatile, and the short - term decline may lead to a rebound, but the anti - fragility is weak. For the bond market, although the LPR did not cut interest rates as expected, monetary easing is expected, and attention should be paid to MLF renewal and central bank bond - buying [12][13]. - **Black**: In the short term, the steel and ore market is expected to fluctuate, and a bearish view is maintained in the medium - to - long term. For coal and coke, the price may continue to decline in the short term, and there is a supply contraction expectation in the long term. For ferroalloys, it is recommended to focus on long - term opportunities to buy ferrosilicon and consider the "long ferrosilicon, short ferromanganese" arbitrage [15][16][17]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials**: For zinc, it is recommended to hold short positions at high levels. For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to buy on dips. For industrial silicon, it oscillates weakly, and for polysilicon, it continues to oscillate [22][23][24]. - **Agricultural Products**: Cotton oscillates at a low level, sugar trends bearishly, eggs may have a short - term small increase but the overall situation is not optimistic, apples oscillate, corn may face a callback, jujubes are recommended to wait and see, and for live pigs, short - term short positions are recommended for near - month contracts [26][27][29]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: For crude oil, it is recommended to short at high levels. Fuel oil prices follow crude oil prices. Plastics oscillate weakly. Methanol's near - month contracts are recommended to be treated with a weak - oscillation idea, and far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after a rebound. Other products also have corresponding market trends and operation suggestions [36][37][41]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - Japan's Prime Minister hopes to build a constructive and stable China - Japan relationship, and China responds that Japan should take practical actions. Trump's administration plans to revoke the Ministry of Education, and the US Secretary of Education will transfer most federal education projects and staff to other six federal agencies [9][10]. 3.2 Macro - Financial 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market declined significantly, affected by the overnight plunge in US stocks. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in December has changed. The EPMI value shows a decline after a previous increase. The short - term decline is large, and there may be a rebound, but the anti - fragility is weak. The strategy is to maintain a wait - and - see attitude [12]. 3.2.2 Bond Futures - The LPR did not cut interest rates as expected, but monetary easing is expected. The capital market is balanced and loose. The bond market is expected to be bullish, and attention should be paid to MLF renewal and central bank bond - buying [13]. 3.3 Black 3.3.1 Steel and Ore - Policy - related events have basically landed, and the market may return to fundamentals. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is improving. Steel mills' profits are low, and iron - water production may decline. The inventory of five major steel products is still high compared with last year. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and a bearish view is maintained in the medium - to - long term [15][16]. 3.3.2 Coal and Coke - The price may continue to decline in the short term. The supply of coking coal may increase in the short term but has a contraction expectation in the long term. The potential negative feedback risk restricts the price [17]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - Manganese silicon does not have the conditions for large - scale production cuts, while ferrosilicon may see large - scale production cuts if the price remains low. It is recommended to focus on long - term opportunities to buy ferrosilicon and consider the "long ferrosilicon, short ferromanganese" arbitrage [17]. 3.4 Non - ferrous and New Materials 3.4.1 Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory has decreased. The zinc price is in a downward - oscillation trend with the possibility of a staged rebound. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels [22]. 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals are weakening, but the long - term demand is positive. It is recommended to buy on dips [23]. 3.4.3 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon oscillates weakly with no prominent supply - demand contradiction. Polysilicon continues to oscillate, and the market is still waiting for the establishment of a platform company [24][25]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The cost provides support, and it oscillates at a low level [26]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The supply - demand situation is bearish. The new - sugar listing pressure and low - cost imports suppress the price, but the cost provides support [27][28]. 3.5.3 Eggs - The spot price may have a short - term small increase, but the inventory is high, and the futures near - month contracts are under pressure. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [29][30]. 3.5.4 Apples - The apple storage is almost finished, and the market oscillates. Consumption dynamics should be closely monitored [31]. 3.5.5 Corn - The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure is still large. It may face a callback, and attention should be paid to the pressure on far - month contracts [32]. 3.5.6 Jujubes - The prices in production and sales areas are falling, and it is recommended to wait and see [33]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The short - term supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is limited. The near - month contracts are recommended to be shorted at high levels. The long - term situation is positive due to the decline in the number of fertile sows [33][34]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand expectations affect the price. The long - term trend is downward, and it is recommended to short at high levels [36]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The price follows the crude oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The focus is on the impact of sanctions on the supply [37]. 3.6.3 Plastics - The supply pressure is large, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [37][38]. 3.6.4 Rubber - The domestic supply is approaching the end of the season, and the cost provides support. However, factors such as EUDR postponement and high inventory suppress the price, and it oscillates weakly [38]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - The price is weakening, and it is recommended to hold short - call strategies or short at high levels [39][40]. 3.6.6 Methanol - The supply - demand situation is weak, and the inventory is high. The near - month contracts are recommended to be treated with a weak - oscillation idea, and far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after a rebound [41]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - The spot price is weakening, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [42]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the price bottom after the winter - storage game [42][43]. 3.6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - The cost is weakening, and the industry chain is expected to continue to decline [44]. 3.6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The short - term bullish factors are exhausted, and the price may turn weak [45]. 3.6.11 Pulp - The market sentiment is weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate widely. Attention should be paid to old - warehouse receipt digestion and spot transactions [45]. 3.6.12 Logs - The fundamentals are weakening, and the price is under pressure [46]. 3.6.13 Urea - The spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures market may experience short - term basis regression [46].

1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Macro - Financial**: A - shares had a high - opening and low - closing trend. The probability of a stagflation scenario is rising. For stock index futures, a wait - and - see approach is recommended; for treasury bond futures, a bullish view on the bond market is maintained [9][10]. - **Black**: Steel and ore are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and maintain a short - biased view at high levels in the medium - to - long - term. Coal and coke prices may continue to decline in the short - term [13][14][15]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials**: Zinc is recommended to hold short positions at high levels; for lithium carbonate, a short - term correction is expected, and a long - term bullish view remains; industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to continue to fluctuate [20][21][22]. - **Agricultural Products**: Cotton is in a low - level shock bottom - building phase; sugar prices are under pressure and are expected to be short - biased; eggs are expected to fluctuate, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended; apples are expected to fluctuate; corn is recommended to pay attention to the upper pressure on the disk; for dates, a wait - and - see approach is recommended; for live pigs, a short - biased operation on near - month contracts is recommended [26][28][31]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is expected to fluctuate as the market weighs fundamentals and geopolitical conflicts; fuel oil prices will follow oil prices; polyolefins are expected to be weak and fluctuate; rubber is expected to continue to fluctuate; methanol is recommended to be short - biased for near - month contracts and long - biased for far - month contracts after a rebound; caustic soda is recommended to maintain a shock view; asphalt price fluctuations are expected to increase; for the polyester industry chain, a long - PTA and short - ethylene glycol strategy can be considered; LPG is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - to - long - term; pulp is expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern [38][39][41]. 3. Summary by Catalog Macro - Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The strategy is to maintain a shock view and wait and see. A - shares had a high - opening and low - closing trend. The probability of a stagflation scenario is rising due to non - interest - rate cuts, real - estate stimulus policies, and other factors. In October, except for a decline in the unemployment rate, industrial growth, consumption, and investment all decreased [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The view is bullish on the bond market. After the tax - payment period, the capital market is balanced and loose. The market has digested the news of non - interest - rate cuts, real - estate stimulus policies, etc. The probability of a stagflation scenario is rising [10]. Black - **Steel and Ore**: In the short - term, they are expected to fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, a short - biased view at high levels is maintained. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is okay. Steel mill profits are low, and there is a possibility of negative feedback. The inventory is higher than last year. The spot market transactions are average [13][14]. - **Coal and Coke**: Prices may continue to decline in the short - term. Coal production is expected to increase in the short - term but may decrease in the medium - term due to policies. The demand for raw materials from steel mills is temporarily supported [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: It is recommended to focus on long - term opportunities in ferrosilicon and consider a "long ferrosilicon, short manganese silicon" strategy. The prices of both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have declined, and ferrosilicon factories' willingness to reduce production is increasing [17]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended. The production and inventory of soda ash have decreased, and the price has been adjusted. The inventory of glass has slightly increased, and the spot price has been reduced in some areas [18]. Non - ferrous and New Materials - **Zinc**: It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels. The domestic zinc inventory has decreased. The zinc price is in a shock - downward trend with the possibility of a phased rebound [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: A short - term correction is expected, and a long - term bullish view remains. The inventory reduction has decreased, and the exchange will limit positions on futures contracts [21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: They are expected to continue to fluctuate. The supply - demand contradiction of industrial silicon is not prominent, and the polysilicon price is supported by the spot price [22]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: It is in a low - level shock bottom - building phase. The supply pressure is large, the demand is weak, and the high cost resists price declines [26]. - **Sugar**: The price is under pressure and is expected to be short - biased. The global sugar supply is in surplus, and domestic new sugar production is increasing [28]. - **Eggs**: They are expected to fluctuate. The egg supply is still loose, and the short - term spot performance is not expected to be good [31]. - **Apples**: They are expected to fluctuate. The apple storage is almost over, and the inventory is lower than last year [33]. - **Corn**: It is recommended to pay attention to the upper pressure on the disk. The current price rebound is due to supply - demand mismatch, but the supply pressure remains large [35]. - **Dates**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended. The prices in production and sales areas are at a low level, and the disk is fluctuating [36]. - **Live Pigs**: A short - biased operation on near - month contracts is recommended. The supply pressure continues, and the demand is average [37]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It is expected to fluctuate as the market weighs fundamentals and geopolitical conflicts. Geopolitical conflicts have a greater short - term impact [38]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices will follow oil prices. The supply is loose, and the demand is flat [39]. - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to be weak and fluctuate. The supply pressure is large, but the production losses of upstream enterprises may provide some support [41]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to continue to fluctuate. The domestic supply is approaching the end, and the price is relatively firm [42]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to be short - biased for near - month contracts and long - biased for far - month contracts after a rebound. The current supply - demand situation is weak, and the inventory is high [43]. - **Caustic Soda**: A shock view is recommended. The spot price is stable, and the fundamental improvement is not obvious in the short - term [45]. - **Asphalt**: Price fluctuations are expected to increase. The real - world demand is approaching the end, and attention should be paid to refinery conversion and Venezuelan oil shipments [47]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: A long - PTA and short - ethylene glycol strategy can be considered. The supply of PTA has decreased, while the supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase [48]. - **LPG**: It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - to - long - term. The short - term fundamentals are favorable, but the price has risen significantly [49]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern. The fundamentals are stable, and the cost provides some support, but the inventory is increasing [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macroeconomic and Policy**: China suspends imports of Japanese aquatic products; the Netherlands suspends an administrative order against Anshi Semiconductor; NVIDIA's Q3 2026 financial report exceeds expectations; central Huijin - affiliated brokerages start integration; the organic silicon industry may implement production cuts; the Fed's October policy meeting shows internal differences on interest rates [5][6][7] - **Financial Markets**: A - shares show a shrinking - volume oscillation; the strategy for stock index futures is to remain on the sidelines with an oscillation mindset; the view on bond futures is bullish; steel and ore are expected to oscillate in the short - term and be bearish in the medium - to - long - term; coal and coke may continue to decline in the short - term; various commodities in different sectors have their own market trends and investment strategies [9][10][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macroeconomic News - China notifies Japan of the suspension of Japanese aquatic product imports; the Netherlands suspends the administrative order against Anshi Semiconductor; NVIDIA's Q3 2026 revenue and EPS exceed expectations, and its Q4 revenue guidance is also higher than expected; central Huijin - affiliated brokerages start integration; the organic silicon industry discusses production cuts; the Fed's October policy meeting shows differences on interest rates; the US will not release October employment data and will include it in the November report [5][6][7] 3.2 Macroeconomic and Financial 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Adopt an oscillation mindset and remain on the sidelines. A - shares shrink in volume and oscillate. The decline in October macro data may be due to technical factors, export slowdown, anti - involution, and real estate downturn [9] 3.2.2 Bond Futures - Strategy: The market's expectation of monetary easing has declined, but interest rate cuts cannot be ruled out. The view on bond futures remains bullish [10] 3.3 Black Commodities 3.3.1 Steel and Ore - Market view: Short - term oscillation, medium - to - long - term bearish. The decline in demand, high inventory, and weak profit margins of steel mills contribute to the weak market. The spot market has general trading volume [12][13] 3.3.2 Coal and Coke - View: Short - term oscillation and decline. The supply of coking coal may shrink in the medium - term, but there is an increase in the short - term. The potential negative feedback from steel mills restricts the price [14][17] 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - Market outlook: The double - silicon market oscillates. There is no significant change in the fundamentals, and the cost of manganese silicon may weaken slightly [18] 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - View: Currently, it is advisable to remain on the sidelines. The soda ash and glass industry is in a downward trend, with the supply of soda ash decreasing and the demand for glass remaining stable [19] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Zinc - Strategy: Hold short positions at high prices. The domestic zinc inventory has decreased, but the demand is weak, and the price is in an oscillating and downward trend with potential for a rebound [21] 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate - Strategy: Look for opportunities to buy on dips. The short - term fundamentals are good, and the price is expected to be strong, but there may be a correction if production increases and demand weakens [22] 3.4.3 Industrial Silicon - Strategy: Temporarily remain on the sidelines and partially take profits on long positions. The supply and demand are in a loose balance, and the price oscillates within a range [23][24] 3.4.4 Polysilicon - Strategy: The price oscillates. The market is still waiting for policy changes, and the supply and demand contradiction is weak [25] 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - Market view: The price oscillates at a low level. The supply pressure is high, the demand is weak, and the high cost resists the decline [27] 3.5.2 Sugar - Strategy: Short - term bearish or remain on the sidelines. The global sugar supply is in surplus, and the domestic new sugar supply increases, but the cost limits the decline [29][30] 3.5.3 Eggs - Strategy: Gradually take profits on short positions and remain on the sidelines. The spot price is weak, the inventory of laying hens is high, and the consumption has not improved significantly [32] 3.5.4 Apples - Market view: The price oscillates. The apple storage is almost complete, the inventory is low, and the consumption trend will affect the future price [33][34] 3.5.5 Corn - Strategy: Pay attention to the pressure of spot supply. The current price increase is due to supply - demand mismatch, and there may be a correction in the future [35] 3.5.6 Red Dates - Strategy: Temporarily remain on the sidelines. The prices in production and sales areas are stable at a low level [36] 3.5.7 Pigs - Strategy: Adopt a bearish strategy for near - term contracts. The supply pressure is high, the demand is average, and the price may oscillate weakly [37] 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Market view: The price oscillates. The market is weighing supply - demand fundamentals and geopolitical conflicts, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been fully reflected [39] 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - Market view: The price follows the trend of crude oil. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the price is affected by geopolitical and macro - economic factors [41] 3.6.3 Plastics - Strategy: The price oscillates weakly. The supply pressure is high, but the production losses of upstream enterprises may provide some support [42] 3.6.4 Rubber - Market view: The price oscillates. The fundamentals are stable, and the price may be affected by spot pressure and macro - economic factors at the end of the month [44] 3.6.5 Methanol - Strategy: Adopt a bearish strategy for near - term contracts and a bullish strategy for far - term contracts after a rebound. The supply pressure is high, and the inventory is high [45] 3.6.6 Caustic Soda - Market view: The price oscillates. The spot fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the bullish factors include coal price increases and low futures prices [47] 3.6.7 Asphalt - Market view: The price volatility may increase. The demand is ending, and attention should be paid to production cuts and Venezuelan oil shipments [48][49] 3.6.8 Polyester Industry Chain - Strategy: Consider going long on PTA and short on EG. The cost is dragging down, but the supply is expected to be optimized [50] 3.6.9 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Strategy: Do not chase the rise and consider short - selling at high prices in the medium - to - long - term. The short - term fundamentals are favorable, but the price has risen significantly [51] 3.6.10 Pulp - Market view: The price oscillates widely. The fundamentals are stable, and the cost provides support, but the demand is weak [52] 3.6.11 Logs - Market view: The price is under pressure. The inventory is expected to increase, and the supply - demand is in a weak balance [53] 3.6.12 Urea - Market view: The spot price may strengthen, and the futures market is also expected to be bullish [53] 3.6.13 Synthetic Rubber - Strategy: The price oscillates in the short - term. Do not be overly bullish and consider selling call options after a rebound [54][55]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is in a volatile state, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81% to 3939.81 points, and over 4100 stocks falling. The 10 - month macro - data shows a decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment, except for a decrease in the unemployment rate [7]. - For various commodities, different trends and investment suggestions are given, such as steel and ore may be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - to - long - term; coal and coke prices may continue to decline in the short - term; lithium carbonate may see a price correction in Q1 2026 but offers a chance to buy on dips [11][12][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Adopt a volatile mindset and stay on the sidelines for now. A - shares are volatile and declining, with most stocks falling. The 10 - month macro - data shows a decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment, except for a decrease in the unemployment rate, which may be due to technical factors, export drag, "anti - involution" impact, and the real - estate cycle [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Although the market's expectation of monetary easing has declined, there is still a possibility of interest - rate cuts. Maintain a bullish view on the bond market due to the decline in fiscal policy. The tax - payment period has tightened the capital market, and the bond market's news is light. The 10 - month macro - data shows a decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment, except for a decrease in the unemployment rate [8]. Black Commodities Steel and Ore - Future market view: In the short - term, the industry may return to fundamentals after a series of macro - events. In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to the impact of the Central Political Bureau Meeting in early December and the Central Economic Work Conference in mid - December on the market's macro - expectations. - Fundamental analysis: Demand is weak, supply may decline later, and inventory is high compared to last year. The valuation of iron ore is relatively strong, while coal and coke futures prices are weak. Steel prices are likely to remain weak. - Trend: Steel and ore are expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish on rallies in the medium - to - long - term. - Spot market: Steel and iron ore spot prices show different trends, and the overall trading volume is poor [10][11]. Coal and Coke - View: The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to decline in the short - term. Later, pay attention to the impact of coal - mine production, safety inspections, and changes in downstream hot - metal production. - Fluctuation reason: Coal production has increased slightly but remains low, and coke production is in a loss state. The demand for raw materials from steel mills is still supported in the short - term. - Future outlook: The supply of coking coal may be restricted in the medium - term, but it may increase in the short - term. The weakening demand for steel and the potential negative feedback risk still restrict the prices of coal and coke [12]. Ferroalloys - Market outlook: The volatility of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has increased, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The market is still in a volatile range, and there is no obvious negative feedback [13]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - Short - term: The current fundamentals are good, but there is an expectation of weakening demand in the power sector in Q1 2026. If production resumes at Jiaxiaowo and demand weakens, the price may continue to correct. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips [17]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is in a range - bound state and can be bought on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. - Polysilicon: The industry still has expectations for "anti - involution." The spot price is firm, and the supply - demand contradiction is weak. It will continue to be volatile [18]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Logic and view: The supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. The high cost resists price declines, and it is in a low - level volatile state. - Future outlook: The USDA's November supply - demand report is bearish, and domestic supply is large while demand is weak. The valuation of Zhengzhou cotton futures is lower than the spot price, which limits the decline [21]. Sugar - Logic and view: The domestic sugar supply - demand outlook is bearish. Before the large - scale impact of new sugar, it is advisable to wait and see. There is still supply pressure in the long - term. - Future outlook: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 2025/26 season. Domestic new sugar production is increasing, and the low cost of imported sugar suppresses the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures [23]. Eggs - View: The spot market is weak, and the futures price has declined to correct the premium. The inventory of laying hens is still high, and the probability of a significant price increase before the Spring Festival is low. It is recommended to gradually close short positions and wait and see [26]. Apples - View: The price is in a volatile state. The acquisition of late - maturing Fuji apples is coming to an end, and the inventory is low while the price is high. The follow - up consumption will affect the future price [28]. Corn - View: Pay attention to the upper pressure on the futures price. The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure is still large. The price may correct, but the decline space is limited [29]. Red Dates - View: Temporarily wait and see. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable at a low level and are in a volatile and slightly upward state [30]. Pigs - Overall view: The supply pressure continues, and demand is average. The spot price is likely to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies [30]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Fluctuation reason: The market is balancing the impact of supply surplus and geopolitical conflicts. The supply is expected to be in surplus in Q1 2026, and OPEC+ has slowed down production increases, but this has not fundamentally changed the situation. - Outlook: The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and the price is expected to be volatile [33]. Fuel Oil - The price is influenced by geopolitical and macro - factors and will follow the trend of crude - oil prices. The supply is loose, and demand is weak [34]. Plastics - View: Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and are expected to be weak and volatile. However, the high production cost of upstream enterprises may provide some support [35]. Rubber - Strategy: Pay attention to the strategy of expanding the spread between RU and NR. After the price rebounds, appropriately reduce the position of selling out - of - the - money put options. The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [36]. Methanol - View: The market is highly volatile due to factors such as whether Iran restricts gas supply and port inventory changes. The supply pressure is large, and the near - month contracts are expected to be weak and volatile, while the far - month contracts can be slightly long after a rebound [37]. Caustic Soda - The spot price is declining, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. There are factors driving the long - position, such as rising coal prices. It is recommended to seize long - position opportunities [39]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase. The future focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [40]. Pulp - The market sentiment has weakened, and the price is in a wide - range volatile state. It is recommended to observe the digestion of old warehouse receipts and spot trading [45]. Logs - The fundamentals are weak and volatile, and the spot price has declined. The inventory is expected to increase, and it is expected to be under pressure [46]. Urea - The spot price is expected to strengthen, and the futures market is also expected to be strong [47]. Synthetic Rubber - The price is in a short - term range - bound state. It is advisable to be cautious when going long and can sell call options after a rebound [48]. Polyester Industry Chain - The downstream demand is insufficient, and the market lacks continuous driving force. It is expected to be in a volatile state in the short - term [42]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Although the short - term fundamentals are favorable, the price has risen significantly, and it is not advisable to chase the rise. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - to - long - term [44].