交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 7 月 24 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2025/7/24 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 原油 | 橡胶 | 工业硅 | 尿素 | | | 液化石油气 | 氧化铝 | 王米 | | | | 铝 | 燃油 | 玻璃 | | | | 十债 | 沥青 | 焦炭 | | | | 五债 | 橡胶 | 焦煤 | | | | 二债 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | | 三十债 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | 塑料 | 白糖 | | | | | 锌 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | | 甲醇 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | | 锰硅 | 棉花 ...

晨会纪要 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 7 月 23 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2025/7/23 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農物 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 液化石油气 | 炊油 | 橡胶 | | | | 锌 | 铝 | 橡胶 | | | | 原油 | 沥青 | 工业硅 | | | | 二债 | 氧化铝 | 多晶硅 | | | | 五债 | 烧碱 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | 十债 | 棉花 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 三十债 | 棉纱 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | 红枣 | 白糖 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 锰硅 | 玉米 | 焦炭 | | | | 硅铁 | 热轧卷板 | 焦煤 | ...

2 0 2 5 . 7 . 2 2 原木周报 中泰期货股份有限公司 高萍 交易咨询证号：Z0012806 5 原木价格与价差 Part 1 原木综述 目录 CONTENTS 1 原木综述 2 原木平衡表解析 3 原木供需解析 4 原木成本利润 1.1 原木综述——供给端 | | | 项目 | 单位 | 2025年5月 | 2025年4月 | 环比 | 累计 | 预估下周/月 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 2025/7/18 | 2025/7/11 | | 同比 | 根据三方数据线性预估 | | | | 国外 | 到船量 | 条 | 5 | 10 | -5 | —— | 13条 | | | | | 到港量 | 万方 | 17.7 | 34.35 | -16.65 | | 44.9万方 | | | | | 针叶原木进口量 | | 217.68 | 219.07 | -1.39 | -7% | | | | | | 辐射松进口量 | | 160.68 | 169.00 | -8.32 | - ...

晨会纪要 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 7 月 22 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2025/7/22 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 锌 | 燃油 | 橡胶 | | | | 红枣 | PTA | 中证500股指期货 | | | | 锰硅 | 瓶片 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 硅铁 | 乙二醇 | 玉米 | | | | | 沥青 | 尿素 | | | | | 对二甲苯 | 烧碱 | | | | | 知红 | 碳酸锂 | | | | | 白糖 | 玻璃 | | | | | 上证50股指期货 | 塑料 | | | | | 中证1000指数期货 | 多晶硅 | | | | | 二债 | 工业硅 | ...

Report Information - Report Date: July 21, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Pulp Weekly Report - Company: Zhongtai Futures Co., Ltd. - Analyst: Gao Ping [7][9][12] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp market is currently in a complex situation with a game between policy sentiment and weak fundamentals. The policy sentiment is upward, but the actual market situation is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5600 - 4800, but the policy orientation may cause the bottom to gradually shift upwards. It is recommended to hold spot and adopt strategies such as selling call options or accumulating put options to increase income when the price is high [12][16]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1 Pulp Overview - **Supply - end**: Domestic chemical mechanical pulp production increased significantly in the cycle due to the commissioning of new production capacity, and most of it is used by the supporting paper machines of major pulp mills. In June 2025, China's pulp import volume was 3.031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 16.3%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 18.578 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Affected by overseas shipping and domestic import seasonality, the expected arrivals in July and August are relatively stable, but the expected arrival of softwood pulp is still weak [8]. - **Demand and Inventory - end**: Downstream production is stable during the off - season, with new production capacity being put into operation, but terminal demand is limited, resulting in stable production but gradually decreasing operating rates and inventory tending to accumulate. Port inventory has resumed accumulation, suppressing market confidence. Warehouse receipt inventory has decreased as some paper mills are interested in purchasing cheap Russian softwood pulp, causing some warehouse receipts to be cancelled and flow to downstream factories, and some to be converted into general warehouse spot goods. New warehouse receipt registrations are insufficient, and the pressure on old warehouse receipts is acceptable. Downstream finished product inventory is in a state of shock and accumulation [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: Domestic pulp prices have rebounded, and the market acceptance is acceptable under relatively low prices due to the anti - involution policy. The spot price of imported pulp has increased, and the immediate import profit has rebounded. As the off - season approaches, the prices of finished products have gradually decreased, and the profit has also shown signs of weakening. Currently, the domestic raw material spot price provides support, and the profit of finished products has rebounded [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The macro - level meeting has improved the sentiment in the commodity market, but the spot market is stable with weak trading volume. There is a game between the weak reality and the market sentiment, and the market is significantly affected by sentiment. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate upwards, but the increase is limited. Currently, the fundamentals have not improved significantly. It is necessary to observe whether the port inventory reduction continues and whether the spot trading volume improves. It is recommended to hold spot and adopt strategies such as selling call options or accumulating put options to increase income when the price is high [16]. Part 2 Pulp Balance Sheet - The report provides a monthly balance sheet of pulp from January 2024 to August 2025, including downstream production, imports, domestic production, total supply, pulp consumption, demand, and inventory data, as well as their cumulative and year - on - year changes [18]. Part 3 Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - **Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis**: - **Supply - Global Pulp Shipment Volume**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Demand and Inventory - European Apparent Demand and Inventory**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis**: - **Supply - end**: - **Pulp Import**: The import volume of different types of pulp (softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, chemical mechanical pulp, etc.) and wood chips (softwood chips, hardwood chips) is analyzed, including monthly data, cumulative data, and year - on - year changes from 2022 to 2025 [42][47][73][80]. - **Pulp Import Seasonality and Cumulative Data by Country**: Analyzes the import seasonality and cumulative import volume and year - on - year changes of softwood pulp from different countries (Russia, the United States, Finland, Canada, Chile) [50][60]. - **Demand - end**: - **Pulp Apparent Demand**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Analysis of Pulp's Downstream Finished Paper**: Analyzes the production, import, export, and apparent demand of different types of finished paper (toilet paper, offset paper, coated paper, white cardboard), as well as the planned construction and commissioning of new production capacity [91][100][118]. - **Inventory - end**: Analyzes the total pulp inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, port inventory, and inventory by port, including weekly data from 2022 to 2025 [144][148]. Part 4 Cost and Profit - **Pulp Import Cost and Profit**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Domestic Pulp Production Cost and Profit**: Not detailed in the provided content. Part 5 Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - **Pulp Outer - market Quotation**: Analyzes the outer - market quotations of different pulp varieties (Silver Star, Russian softwood pulp, Goldfish, etc.), including price changes and expected trends [12]. - **Seasonal Price and Spread of Different Pulp Varieties**: Analyzes the seasonal price changes of different pulp varieties (Silver Star, Russian softwood pulp, Goldfish, Asia - Pacific Senbo, etc.) and the seasonal spread between them, as well as the basis between pulp varieties and futures contracts [170][175][177].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average. If it is not broken, the trend will continue. Also, focus on the movement of stop - profit funds [14]. - For treasury bond futures, it is recommended to short bonds at high prices or use treasury bond futures to reduce duration as the capital market may not reach 1.3%, and the capital situation remains uncertain [15]. - For steel and ore, steel prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term and volatile in the medium - term [18]. - For coking coal and coke, they are expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term, and attention should be paid to specific policies later [20]. - For ferroalloys, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach at high prices and manage positions carefully [21]. - For soda ash and glass, for soda ash, consider short - selling at high prices when the market atmosphere weakens; for glass, long - position holders at low levels can continue to hold and stop profit flexibly when the atmosphere weakens [23]. - For aluminum and alumina, it is recommended to short - sell aluminum at high prices and take a wait - and - see approach for alumina in the short - term, and short - sell at high positions appropriately [25]. - For lithium carbonate, it is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term due to supply - side disturbances [26]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, and polysilicon is expected to be strongly volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [27]. - For cotton, it is recommended to hold or exit the long - near and short - far strategy carefully [30]. - For sugar, it is expected to be volatile in the short - term [33]. - For eggs, it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds and pay attention to stop - loss, and focus on the short - 09 and long - 01 reverse spread combination in the long - term [35]. - For apples, it is recommended to conduct long - spread arbitrage with a light position [37]. - For corn, participate in the short - term as the price follows the spot and is slightly stronger, and pay attention to the opportunity of value restoration after the over - decline [37]. - For red dates, it is recommended to short - sell with a light position [39]. - For live pigs, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term as the spot price is uncertain and the market is in intense long - short competition [40]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices as it is likely to enter a supply - surplus situation in the long - term [43]. - For fuel oil, its price is weaker than that of crude oil, and its fundamentals are gradually becoming looser [45]. - For plastics, consider holding put options or slightly short - selling as the supply - demand situation is weak despite short - term emotional rebounds [46]. - For methanol, it is recommended to short - sell after rebounds or consider put options as it is expected to be weakly volatile [47]. - For caustic soda, maintain a long - position strategy [48]. - For asphalt, it follows the short - term trend of crude oil, which is slightly stronger [49]. - For the polyester industry chain, do not chase the long - position, and consider short - selling after the bullish atmosphere weakens or trading the PX - PTA spread [50]. - For pulp, it is expected to rise slightly with limited amplitude under the 09 emotional expectation, and the long - spot holders can adopt relevant strategies to increase income [51]. - For logs, be cautious when chasing high prices, and enterprises with deliverable spot can consider short - selling hedging [51]. - For urea, consider buying at low prices as the export quota may increase [52]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will release a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, as well as plans for industries like machinery, automobiles, and power equipment, and a digital transformation implementation plan for the automobile industry [10]. - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US approval of the sale of NVIDIA H20 chips to China, emphasizing that cooperation between China and the US is the right path [10]. - Four departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have deployed work to standardize the competition order in the new energy vehicle industry [10]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation has summoned three platform companies, including Ele.me, Meituan, and JD.com, to regulate their promotional activities [10]. - The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference held a symposium on the macro - economic situation in the first half of 2025, with some members making suggestions on various aspects [11]. - The National Export Control Work Coordination Mechanism Office has launched a special campaign against the smuggling of strategic minerals [11]. - Yushu Technology has initiated IPO counseling, with CITIC Securities as the counseling institution [11]. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the US in July reached a five - month high, while the 5 - year inflation expectation hit a five - month low [11]. - Federal Reserve Governor Waller called for a rate cut in July, and Trump urged Fed Chairman Powell to cut rates [12]. - US President Trump filed a defamation lawsuit against News Corp, Dow Jones, Rupert Murdoch, and two Wall Street Journal reporters, seeking at least $10 billion in compensation [12]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent, during a visit to Japan, said that the two countries could reach a "good" trade agreement, but there are still significant differences, especially regarding the 25% tariff on automobiles [12]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The market sentiment was maintained on Friday, with a slight intraday adjustment followed by a rise. The main broad - based indexes have risen for four consecutive weeks. Pay attention to the movement of stop - profit funds as margin trading funds continue to increase [14]. Treasury Bond Futures - The capital price during the tax period was high and tight. After the tax period ended on Friday, the capital situation did not ease significantly, and the central bank's net open - market operation (OMO) investment decreased significantly. The market interprets the central bank's draft for comments as beneficial to short - term bonds and high - grade credit bonds, and short - term bond yields have declined [15]. Black Steel and Ore - Steel prices are affected by policies and supply - demand. The demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for coils has weakened marginally. However, the supply is expected to remain strong, and the price is expected to be volatile in the medium - term and slightly stronger in the short - term [18]. Coking Coal and Coke - The supply of coal mines is recovering slowly, and the demand for coking coal and coke is supported by stable pig iron production. In the medium - term, the supply - demand gap of coking coal will narrow as mines resume production [20]. Ferroalloys - The manganese and silicon alloy market is affected by macro - level positive news and weakening fundamentals. It is not recommended to chase long - positions, and it is advisable to short - sell at high prices with proper position management [21]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, the supply is expected to be in surplus in the long - term, and the short - term trend depends on the market atmosphere. For glass, pay attention to the linkage between the futures and spot markets and the improvement of terminal orders [23]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - For aluminum, due to the deadlock in Trump's tariff negotiations and weak demand, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices. For alumina, the short - term policy sentiment may be short - lived, and it is advisable to short - sell at high positions [25]. Lithium Carbonate - Due to supply - side disturbances, it is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term as the market is sensitive to positive news [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger due to improved supply - demand and positive policies. Polysilicon has a strong expectation but weak reality, and it is advisable to wait and see [27]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton prices are affected by low inventory and weak consumption. Pay attention to the macro - situation, supply - demand changes, and the impact of USDA reports [30]. Sugar - Domestic sugar prices are affected by low domestic inventory and expected increases in imported sugar. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 2025 - 26 season [33]. Eggs - Eggs are in a seasonal rising period, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival may limit the price increase. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds and focus on the long - short spread strategy [35]. Apples - In the off - season of apple consumption, early - maturing apples are priced high. It is recommended to conduct long - spread arbitrage with a light position [37]. Corn - Corn prices follow the spot and are slightly stronger. Pay attention to the substitution of wheat, the release of imported corn, and the opportunity of value restoration after the over - decline [37]. Red Dates - Red dates are in the physiological fruit - dropping period. The supply is strong and the demand is weak in the short - term. It is recommended to short - sell with a light position [39]. Live Pigs - The short - term spot price is uncertain. The supply may decrease in the second half of July, and the demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to wait and see [40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ is accelerating supply recovery, but the demand is affected by trade wars and the global economic slowdown. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices as it is likely to enter a supply - surplus situation [43]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is weaker than that of crude oil, and its fundamentals are gradually becoming looser due to factors such as the change in the demand structure and inventory accumulation [45]. Plastics - The supply of polyolefins is under pressure, and the demand is weak. Although there may be short - term emotional rebounds, it is advisable to consider put options or short - selling [46]. Methanol - Methanol is expected to be weakly volatile as the port inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short - sell after rebounds or consider put options [47]. Caustic Soda - With the decline in the price of liquid chlorine and a relatively strong macro - market, it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [48]. Asphalt - It follows the short - term trend of crude oil, which is slightly stronger. The asphalt market is in the off - season, and the production is expected to decrease in August [49]. Polyester Industry Chain - The market sentiment is bullish, but the fundamentals are weak. It is not recommended to chase long - positions. Consider short - selling after the bullish atmosphere weakens or trading the PX - PTA spread [50]. Pulp - The 09 contract is expected to rise slightly with limited amplitude. Pay attention to port de - stocking and spot trading. Holders of spot can adopt relevant strategies to increase income [51]. Logs - The apparent demand is good, and the spot valuation is low. Be cautious when chasing high prices, and enterprises with deliverable spot can consider short - selling hedging [51]. Urea - With the possible increase in the export quota, it is recommended to buy at low prices. The futures price is strongly affected by the overall commodity market [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the spot market price of pigs continued to decline, with the national average price of standard pigs dropping by nearly 1 yuan/kg in the past two weeks. The market sentiment has weakened overall. Although there was a slight price increase over the weekend due to some reluctance to sell among pig farmers, the demand was insufficient [5]. - The price of piglets remained stable this week. Since the end of June, the price of piglets has been rising because current piglet purchases can still ensure pigs are ready for sale before the Spring Festival, which has increased the enthusiasm for piglet purchases [5]. - The sample slaughter volume decreased this week, and the downstream demand was weak. The losses of slaughterhouses widened, and the negative feedback from the demand side on live pig prices increased. The consumption in July - August is expected to remain sluggish, and the key factor affecting prices is still supply [6]. - The feed cost increased slightly this week, while the profit of pig farmers decreased significantly. The profit of the pig - purchasing and fattening model has turned negative, and the losses of slaughterhouses continue [6]. - Overall, the supply in July is not expected to increase significantly. The supply in the second half of July may decrease compared to the middle of the month, which is conducive to price stabilization. However, the demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and the negative feedback on price increases persists. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Overview and Market View 3.1.1 Price - The national average price of standard pigs this week was 14.19 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.51 yuan/kg from last week, and the price in Sichuan (the optimal delivery area) was 13.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.75 yuan/kg. The average price in Henan was 14.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/kg. The price of pork carcasses was 18.69 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.46 yuan/kg [5]. - The price of piglets was 444.76 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.48 yuan/head, remaining relatively stable. The price of sows was 1638.1 yuan/head, a decrease of 2.38 yuan/head [5]. 3.1.2 Production Capacity - According to national statistics, the inventory of breeding sows in June was 4.043 million heads, an increase of 10,000 heads from the previous month and a decrease of 370,000 heads from the peak in November last year. The inventory of breeding sows in the Steel Union sample increased by 15,100 heads to 5.2725 million heads [5]. - The average number of healthy piglets per litter was 11.41, unchanged from the previous month, and the fattening survival rate was 93.21%, also unchanged [5]. 3.1.3 Supply - The planned slaughter volume of commercial pigs this month was 13.005 million heads, an increase of 164,300 heads from last month. The average slaughter weight was 123.49 kg, a slight decrease of 0.01 kg [5]. - The price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.27 yuan/kg, a significant change from - 0.12 yuan/kg last week, indicating that the price of fat pigs was relatively strong [5]. 3.1.4 Demand - The daily slaughter volume was 107,803 heads, a decrease of 1,151 heads from last week. The slaughter rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 26.05%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points. The fresh - meat sales rate was 87.87%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points [6]. - The wholesale volume of pork in Xinfadi Market increased by 3.51%, and the arrival volume of pork carcasses in Nanhuanqiao Market and Shanghai Xijiao Market increased by 26.11% and 7.73% respectively [6]. 3.1.5 Cost and Profit - The feed cost was 2.72 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg. The profit of self - breeding and self - fattening was 114.86 yuan/head, a decrease of 45.44 yuan/head. The profit of the pig - purchasing and fattening model was - 71.84 yuan/head, a significant decrease from 0.17 yuan/head last week [6]. - The profit of slaughtering was - 23 yuan/head, a slight improvement from - 23.9 yuan/head last week [6]. 3.1.6 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract (LH2509) was 14,135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 55 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 800 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - The price difference between contracts (7 - 9) was - 455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 810 yuan/ton, and the price difference between contracts (9 - 11) was 500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Market Price Trend - The report presents the historical price trends of standard pigs, pork carcasses, piglets, and sows from 2022 - 2025, helping to understand the long - term price changes in the pig market [10]. 3.3 Pig Market Balance Sheet - From 2024 - 2025, the supply and demand of the pig market fluctuated. The supply - demand gap was relatively stable from March - May and widened significantly from June - August [12][15]. 3.4 Production Capacity and Supply Data 3.4.1 Basic Production Capacity - Sow Inventory - The report shows the inventory trends of official breeding sows and different samples of breeding sows (scale enterprises, scale + small and medium - sized enterprises, small and medium - sized farmers) from February - December [17][19][21]. 3.4.2 Basic Production Capacity - Litter Efficiency - It includes the number of piglets born in sample enterprises, the average number of healthy piglets per litter, the survival rate of piglets, and the fattening survival rate from March - December [26][27][28]. 3.4.3 Pig Inventory - Slaughter Plan and Slaughter Characteristics - The report presents the trends of the average slaughter weight, the price difference between standard and fat pigs, the north - south price difference, the monthly planned slaughter volume of scale enterprises, and the monthly slaughter volume of major pig - raising enterprises [36][37][38]. 3.5 Slaughter Volume and Market Demand 3.5.1 Slaughter Situation - It shows the trends of the fresh - meat sales rate, daily slaughter volume, storage capacity rate, and daily operating rate of slaughtering enterprises from 2021 - 2025 [41][42]. 3.5.2 Market Demand - The report presents the trends of the wholesale volume of pork carcasses in Xinfadi Market, the arrival volume of pork carcasses in Nanhuanqiao Market and Shanghai Xijiao Market, and the price difference between live pigs and pork carcasses from 2022 - 2025 [43][45][49]. 3.5.3 Competitor Price Situation - It shows the price trends of beef, mutton, chicken, and fish from 2021 - 2025 [52][53]. 3.6 Pig - Raising Cost and Industry Profit - The report presents the trends of the price of pig - raising feed, the profit of the pig - purchasing and fattening model, the profit of self - breeding and self - fattening, the pig - grain ratio, and the expected and current costs of different pig - raising models from 2021 - 2025 [56][57][58]. 3.7 Futures Market Situation 3.7.1 Futures Market Trend - Each Futures Contract Trend - It shows the price trends of different futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11) from 2022 - 2026 [72][73][74]. 3.7.2 Futures Market Trend - Each Contract Basis Trend - It presents the basis trends of different futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11) from 2023 - 2026 [83][84][85]. 3.7.3 Futures Market Trend - Each Contract Price Difference Trend - It shows the price difference trends between different futures contracts (01 - 03, 03 - 05, 05 - 07, 07 - 09, 09 - 11, 11 - 01) from 2022 - 2025 [93][94][95].

PVC + NAOH + CL 2025年7月20日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 中泰期货PVC烧碱产业链周报 1 现货市场 4 行情预期 3 产业链利润 2 基差价差 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 PVC综述及平衡表 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） PVC供需小结 | | | 上 | 周 | 本 | 周 | | 周环比 | 下 周 | 下下周 | 思 路 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 总产量 | 45 . | 26 | 45 . | 62 | 0 . | 36 | 45 98 . | 46 06 . | 本周产量略有增加 下 ...

姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 基差及价差 2 聚乙烯产业情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 情绪性反弹再现，谨防回调风险 中泰期货聚乙烯产业链周报 2025年7月20日 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 2、聚乙烯估值 | | | | 上周 | 本 周 | 周环比 | 下周 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 原 油 | 70 36 . | 69 52 . | -0 84 . | | 原油价格震荡 后期预计进入震荡 ， | | | 原 料 | 煤 炭 | 623 | 630 | 7 00 . | 走 弱 | 走弱态势 。 | | | 成 本 | 油制PE成本 | 8224 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil prices remained mainly volatile, rising at the end of the week and then falling back. After the OPEC+ production increase in August, the market also anticipates a continued increase in September. The supply side has relatively high certainty. As the peak demand season approaches, major mainstream institutions have significant differences in their expectations for the peak season, but currently, the peak - season demand cannot be disproven. Subsequently, the market inventory situation should be continuously and closely monitored. If inventory continues to accumulate, the market's peak - season demand expectations will be disappointed, and oil prices are expected to return to the trading logic of supply surplus. Overall, at present, crude oil has insufficient drivers and may mainly experience a weak rebound. In the medium - to - long term, it is advisable to try short positions at high prices [24][25] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Indicators and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Key Event Review - **Fundamentals**: Iraq set different official selling prices for August - bound Basra Medium crude oil to different regions; Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 173,000 barrels per day in June, and OPEC's crude oil production increased by 220,000 barrels per day; the US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 11 was 839,000 barrels; the UAE's Fujairah Port's refined oil inventory decreased by 1.131 million barrels; the US EIA reported changes in multiple indicators such as crude oil exports, domestic production, and inventories; Indonesia's biodiesel consumption reached 7.42 million kiloliters as of July 16; the US oil drilling rig count decreased to 422 as of July 18 [10][15] - **Macroeconomic**: China - US trade teams are accelerating the implementation of the London framework results; China's exports to the US decreased by 9.9% in the first half of the year, and imports decreased by 7.7%; China's June social消费品 retail总额 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and industrial added value increased by 6.8%; the US June unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.9%, and the unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.7%; the US June PPI annual rate was 2.3% [14][18] - **Geopolitical Conflicts**: Trump may announce a new plan to arm Ukraine, including offensive weapons; the US and European powers set the end of August as the deadline for reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran; Iran's foreign minister said Iran is waiting for the US to show "real determination" [19][22] - **Institutional Forecasts**: Goldman Sachs raised its price forecast for Brent and WTI crude oil in the second half of 2025 but maintained its forecast of a supply surplus, expecting prices to fall in 2026 [22] 3.1.2 Next Week's Core Indicator Calendar - Key indicators to be released next week include the US API and EIA crude oil inventories, the Eurozone's European Central Bank deposit mechanism rate, the US initial jobless claims, the US durable goods orders month - on - month rate, and the US oil drilling rig count [23] 3.2 Price Basic Data 3.2.1 Crude Oil Basic Price - Provided price data for Brent, WTI, SC main contract, and Middle - East main contract from July 2024 to July 2025, along with week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes [32] 3.2.2 Crude Oil Forward Price - Presented forward curves for Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil [55] 3.2.3 Crude Oil Monthly Spread - Included daily data on monthly spreads for Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil [57] 3.2.4 Crude Oil Disk Spread - Showed daily data on spreads such as Brent - WTI, Brent - Oman, and Brent - SC [65] 3.2.5 Main Oil Type Premiums and Discounts - Provided monthly data on premiums and discounts for various oil types from different countries to Asia and other regions, as well as the Shandong refinery's crude oil arrival premium and discount [71][84] 3.2.6 US Dollar Index - Displayed the relationship between the US dollar index and WTI crude oil price [86] 3.3 World Crude Oil Supply and Demand 3.3.1 OPEC Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast - Provided OPEC's world supply - demand balance sheet from 2022 to 2026, including production, demand, and inventory data in different regions; also presented the quarterly supply - demand differences and OPEC production balance values [95][106] 3.3.2 EIA Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast - Provided EIA's world supply - demand balance sheet in July 2025, including production, demand, inventory extraction, and end - of - period inventory data; also showed the quarterly supply - demand differences [108][111] 3.3.3 OPEC Major Oil - Producing Countries' Production and Export - Showed monthly production data for OPEC major oil - producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran, as well as Iran's crude oil export data [115][119]