交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 5 月 23 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | | --- | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 备注: | | --- | | 1. 趋势判断观点主要基于各品种的基本面等因素。 | | 2 学唐诗老下文武扫描一姓记本无声主要胡少昭公右唱八司八 | | | 基于量化指标研判 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 偏空 | 震荡 | 偏多 | | 白糖 | 直— | 玻璃 | | 锰硅 | 글= | 焦炭 | | 鸡蛋 | PTA | 护金 | | РУС | 沪铝 | 直海 | | 沪锡 | 玉米淀粉 | 菜粕 | | 沥青 | 玉米 | 菜油 | | 热轧卷板 | 护银 | 焦煤 | | | 橡胶 | | | | 螺 ...

证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 5 月 22 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 2025/5/22 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農物 | 農筋偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 上证50股指期货 | 二债 | 铝 | | | | 短纤 | 碳酸锂 | 氧化铝 | | | | PTA | 中证500股指期货 | 焼蔵 | | | | 中证1000指数期货 | 十债 | 塑料 | | | | 对二甲苯 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | 沥青 | 三十债 | | | | | 鸡蛋 | 五债 | | | | | 生猪 | 纯碱 | | | | | 工业硅 | 棉纱 | | | | | 多晶硅 | 白糖 | | | | | 夏粕 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 5 月 21 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | | 0531-81678626 | | | 客服电话： | | | 400-618-6767 | | | 公司网址： | | | www.ztqh.com | | | [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | | | | 垫丁重化指标研判 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 偏空 | 農汤 | 偏多 | | 鸡蛋 | 直海 | 护金 | | 沥青 | 沪银 | 豆粕 | | РУС | — | 菜粕 | | 锰硅 | 焦煤 | 玻璃 | | 沪锌 | 菜油 | 들 - | | 甲醇 | 沪铝 | 焦炭 | | 护铜 | 玉米 | 白糖 | | | 玉米淀粉 | | | | 橡胶 | | | | 沪锡 | | | | PTA | | | | 聚丙烯 | | | | 铁矿石 | | | | ...

姓名： 郭庆 从业资格号： F3049926 交易咨询证书号：Z0016007 联系电话： 15628875631 公司地址：济南市经七路86号证券大厦 客服电话：0531-81916257 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 目 录 CONTENTS 02 氯碱价格 03 烧碱供应 04 氯碱需求 01 氯碱综述 中泰期货烧碱周报 2025年5月19日 --------中美贸易关税缓和 铝土矿因素扰动氧化铝、烧碱期货 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | | | 烧碱产业链简述 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 产量 | 上周中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为82.6%，较上周环比-1.3%。西北、西南新增重启或降负，带动负荷不同程度下滑，华北检修及重启并存，负荷提升。其 | | | | 中山东产能利用率-1.8%至86.8%。本周华中、华东均有装置减产及检修，西北、华北、西南装置复产，因此综合来看，预计本周烧碱产能利用率降至82.9%左右，周产量80.53 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soda ash market, the short - term price has limited upside and downside space. The supply is expected to decline due to increased maintenance, but the cost support is weakening. The demand is stable to weak, and there is a risk of oversupply after the rush - installation period. For the glass market, the apparent demand has decreased significantly, the price is expected to decline, and the fundamentals lack obvious positive drivers, so the market will maintain a weak operation [4][51] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Market 3.1.1 Price - **Futures price**: From May 12 - 16, 2025, the prices of 2505, 2509, and 2601 contracts decreased by 27, 29, and 19 respectively. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 2, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 10 [6] - **Spot price**: The prices of heavy alkali in some regions remained stable, while the price of heavy alkali in Qinghai increased by 20. The price of light alkali in Central China remained unchanged [6] 3.1.2 Supply - **Capacity utilization**: The overall capacity utilization decreased from 87.74% to 80.27%. The capacity utilization of the combined - soda process decreased from 85.12% to 74.23%, and that of the ammonia - soda process decreased from 83.52% to 82.27% [7] - **Output**: The weekly output decreased from 74.07 million tons to 67.77 million tons, a decrease of 8.51%. The output of heavy alkali decreased from 40.79 million tons to 36.99 million tons, a decrease of 9.32%, and the output of light alkali decreased from 33.28 million tons to 30.78 million tons, a decrease of 7.51% [7] 3.1.3 Demand - **For glass**: The daily output of float glass increased from 15.58 million tons to 15.67 million tons, and the daily output of photovoltaic glass remained at 9.878 million tons [7] - **Apparent demand for light alkali**: It decreased from 31.88 million tons to 30.82 million tons, a decrease of 3.32% [7] 3.1.4 Inventory - **Total inventory**: It increased from 170.13 million tons to 171.2 million tons, an increase of 0.63%. The inventory of heavy alkali increased from 87.22 million tons to 88.33 million tons, an increase of 1.27%, and the inventory of light alkali decreased slightly from 82.91 million tons to 82.87 million tons, a decrease of 0.05% [7] - **Social inventory**: It decreased from 37.59 million tons to 36.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.43% [7] 3.1.5 Profit - **Combined - soda process profit**: It increased from 275 yuan/ton to 287.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.55% - **Ammonia - soda process profit**: It increased from 50.4 yuan/ton to 65.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 29.76% [7] 3.2 Glass Market 3.2.1 Price - **Futures price**: From May 12 - 16, 2025, the prices of 2505, 2509, and 2601 contracts decreased by 28, 11, and 1 respectively. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 17, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 12 [53] - **Spot price**: The prices of glass in most regions decreased. The price of 5mm large - plate glass in Shahe decreased by 44, and the prices in North China, Central China, and East China decreased by 20, 10, and 20 respectively [53] 3.2.2 Supply - **Capacity utilization**: It remained at 75%, and the daily output increased from 15.58 million tons to 15.67 million tons. The weekly output remained stable at around 109.17 million tons [54] 3.2.3 Demand - **Apparent demand**: It increased from 96.34 million tons to 106.56 million tons, an increase of 11%. However, the orders of downstream processing plants were differentiated [54] 3.2.4 Inventory - **Total inventory**: It increased from 6756 million heavy - cases to 6808.2 million heavy - cases, an increase of 1%. The inventory of Shahe traders decreased from 376 million heavy - cases to 352 million heavy - cases, a decrease of 6% [54] 3.2.5 Profit - **Profit of different production processes**: The profit of natural - gas production decreased from - 147.85 yuan/ton to - 149.52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1%. The profit of coal - gas production decreased from 147.23 yuan/ton to 104.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29%. The profit of petroleum - coke production decreased from - 44.6 yuan/ton to - 70.02 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57% [54]

——尿素保供稳价获得广泛共识 现货价格将会按照保供稳价方向运行 姓名： 郭庆 从业资格号： F3049926 交易咨询证书号：Z0016007 联系电话： 15628875631 公司地址：济南市经七路86号证券大厦 客服电话：0531-86113507 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 中泰期货尿素周报 2025年5月19日 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 主要内容 3 2 尿素及相关产品价格 尿素供应 1 综述 5 4 尿素需求 尿素库存 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 综述 | 产业链 | | 2025年5月8日-5月14 日 | 2025年5月15日-5月21 | 2025年5月22日-5月28 | 2025年5月29日-6月4日 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 日 | 日 | | | | 供应 | 周度日均产量：万吨 | 19.92 | 20.43 | 20.43 | 20.43 | 上周新增5家企业停车，停车企业恢复7家，本周预计0家企业计 划检修，3家停车企业恢复生产(预估数据来自隆众资讯） | | ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 5 月 19 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | | 0531-81678626 | | | 客服电话： | | | 400-618-6767 | | | 公司网址： | | | www.ztqh.com | | | [Table_QuotePic] | | | 中泰微投研小程序 | | | | | | 备注: | | --- | | 1. 趋势判断观点主要基于各品种的基本面等因素。 | | 0 当年大手工艺十六十十十十六十十六年十年期化四八十四八三 | | | 基于量化指标研判 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 偏空 | 農汤 | 偏多 | | 锰硅 | 焦煤 | 豆粕 | | PVC | 菜粕 | 玻璃 | | 聚丙烯 | 护金 | 一 | | 沪铜 | 電池 | 鸡蛋 | | 甲醇 | 菜油 | 焦炭 | | 沪锌 | 沪银 | 白糖 | ...

2025-05-19 纯碱玻璃周度报告汇总 研究员：于小栋 从业资格号：F3081787 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0019360 | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 项 目 | 备 注 | 当 期 | 环 比 | 下期 (E) | 下下期 (E) | 思 路 | | | | 总产量（万吨） | | 67.77 | -6.30 | 66.00 | 64.00 | | | | 供 应 | 重质产量（万吨） | | 36.99 | -3.80 | 36.02 | 34.93 | 检修计划延续，下旬有部分大厂加入检修；前期部分检修计划临近结 束，有部分计划执行或不及预期，供应低位水平待观察；连云港碱厂 新产能本月有望出试制品。 | | | | 轻质产量（万吨） | | 30.78 | -2.50 | 29.98 | 29.07 | | | | 进出口 | 进口（万吨） | | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 国外价格到国内暂无优势，进口价格窗口未打开。 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as macro - policies, trade negotiations, and supply - demand relationships. Different sectors and products have different trends and investment strategies [12][13][14]. - For the Chinese stock market, Goldman Sachs has raised the 12 - month target points of the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index, maintaining an "overweight" rating and favoring domestic - oriented industries [10]. - In the futures market, different futures products have different investment strategies based on their fundamentals, market sentiment, and macro - environment [12][13][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The State Council held a work promotion meeting on strengthening the domestic cycle, emphasizing the importance of domestic cycle stability [9]. - China's top - level design for urban renewal has been introduced, accelerating urban renewal actions [9]. - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's stricter restrictions on Chinese chips and re - emphasized the review of port transactions [9]. - In April, the growth rate of national enterprise sales revenue accelerated, and the construction industry also showed growth [9]. - Goldman Sachs raised the target points of the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index, maintaining an "overweight" rating on the Chinese stock market [10]. - After the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, the bank wealth - management market adjusted, and the market may face "asset shortage" pressure [10]. - The Fed Chairman is considering adjusting the monetary policy framework, and the US may face more frequent supply shocks and unstable inflation [10]. - The US and Iran are in nuclear - related negotiations, with Iran willing to promise not to produce nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief [11]. - US economic activity slowed down, inflation cooled, and the PPI, retail sales, and manufacturing output showed different trends [11]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US remained stable, while the number of continued claims increased [11]. 3.2 Futures Strategies 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - Consider maintaining a long - term mindset and pay attention to style drift. The Q2 domestic economic fundamentals are expected to improve, and public - offering funds may adjust their portfolios [12]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Be cautious when steepening the yield curve due to tightened funds. Consider bearish operations in the bond market as the Q2 domestic economic fundamentals are expected to improve [13]. 3.2.3 Container Shipping to Europe - The focus is on whether the spot price will decline further and whether shipping companies will raise prices in June. The upward catalyst is emotional, while the downward pressure is fundamental [14]. 3.2.4 Cotton - Although the Sino - US tariff friction has eased, domestic cotton prices are still under pressure due to weak demand. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [15][16]. 3.2.5 Sugar - Sugar prices are oscillating due to sufficient short - term supply and uncertain supply - demand gaps. Global sugar supply is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, which may restrict sugar prices [17][18]. 3.2.6 Oils and Oilseeds - For palm oil, the supply - demand situation is weak. For soybean meal, with the increase in US soybean planting progress and domestic oil - mill operating rates, soybean meal prices are expected to be weak [20][21]. 3.2.7 Eggs - In the short term, the decline in egg prices may slow down, but in the medium term, the supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose, so a bearish operation on egg futures is recommended [21][22]. 3.2.8 Apples - Consider a light - position positive spread strategy. Pay attention to the fruit - setting situation in production areas [23]. 3.2.9 Red Dates - Consider short - selling at high prices and focus on downstream demand and abnormal changes in production areas [23]. 3.2.10 Live Pigs - The spot market sentiment is weakening, and the main contract is increasing in positions and falling. A cautious and bearish operation is recommended [23][24]. 3.2.11 Crude Oil - The market is back to trading on weak fundamentals, and Trump's Middle - East visit may lead to increased supply. Oil prices are expected to decline in the medium - long term and fluctuate weakly in the short term [25]. 3.2.12 Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices follow crude oil, with short - term rebounds stronger than crude oil. The market is affected by factors such as power generation demand in the Middle East and shipping weakness [26]. 3.2.13 Plastics - Be cautious about the callback risk of L and PP. Pay attention to the situation where spot prices do not follow up [27]. 3.2.14 Methanol - Be cautious about the callback risk. Although the market sentiment has improved, methanol's supply pressure is still large [28]. 3.2.15 Caustic Soda - In a weak fundamental and strong macro - environment, the SH2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [29]. 3.2.16 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash prices are stable in the short term but face a long - term oversupply situation. Glass prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to weak demand [31][32]. 3.2.17 Asphalt - Asphalt prices are expected to follow crude oil and approach 3400. Inventory data provides some support [32]. 3.2.18 Polyester Industry Chain - Consider short - term long - positions. Although cost decline is a major negative factor, prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [33]. 3.2.19 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - After the short - term impact of tariffs, LPG prices may rebound, but the space is limited [34][35]. 3.2.20 Pulp - The market is oscillating in the short term. Pay attention to the inventory rhythm of raw materials and finished products [36]. 3.2.21 Urea - There are differences in the market's view on urea exports. UR09 and UR01 contracts can be short - sold when prices rise [37]. 3.2.22 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and appropriate long - positions can be taken at low prices. Alumina prices may have limited rebound space, and short - positions can be considered after the spot stabilizes [38]. 3.2.23 Lithium Carbonate - The impact of tariffs on lithium carbonate is not significant. The price is expected to oscillate and rebound based on its own supply - demand fundamentals [40][41]. 3.2.24 Steel and Iron Ore - In the short term, the market may rebound due to trade negotiations, but in the medium term, it is expected to remain weak due to factors such as weak demand and supply pressure [42][43]. 3.2.25 Coking Coal and Coke - In the short term, prices fluctuate with macro - policies. In the long term, without large - scale production cuts or reduced imports, there is no condition for long - positions [44][45]. 3.2.26 Ferroalloys - Do not chase high prices. Consider long - term short - positions when prices rise [46].

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 5 月 15 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/5/15 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 沥青 | 白糖 | 氧化铝 | | | | | 三十债 | 棉花 | PTA | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 十债 | 玻璃 | 铝 | | | | | 鸡蛋 | 棉纱 | 燃油 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 硅铁 | 纯碱 | 对二甲苯 | | | | | 锰硅 | 热轧卷板 | 燃油 | | | 客服电话： | | | 中证500股指期货 | 短纤 | | | | | | 铁矿石 | 上证50股指期货 | | | 400-618-6767 | | | 五债 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | 公司网址： | | | 尿素 | 橡胶 | | ...