1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The weekend Sino - US trade negotiation sent out mild signals, forming a preliminary consensus on relevant issues, which improved the market risk appetite. The US CPI in September was weaker than expected, strengthening the expectation of an interest rate cut in October. The "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions in China boosted the market sentiment. Macro factors are generally favorable to copper prices. On the fundamental side, intensified disturbances in the mining end increased the expectation of copper ore shortage, supporting copper prices. Recently, the improvement in market risk appetite and the resonance of macro and micro factors jointly drove up the center of copper prices. Currently at the tail of risk pricing, copper prices are expected to be strong in the short - term. The strategy is to expect a volatile and upward trend, and recommend buying on dips [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Part 01: Weekly Review - **Supply - side Data**: The spot TC of copper concentrate decreased from - 40.97 to - 42.7 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.22%. The market was quiet, and attention should be paid to the long - term negotiation results in November. The refined - scrap copper price difference increased from 3123 to 3438 yuan/ton, a rise of 10.07%. The southern crude copper processing fee decreased from 1000 to 900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10%. The refined copper rod operating rate decreased from 63% to 62%, a decrease of 1.52%. The recycled copper rod operating rate increased from 18% to 19%, a rise of 2.19%. The wire and cable operating rate increased from 62% to 62.4%, a rise of 0.69% [7]. - **Inventory Data**: Global visible inventory increased, mainly from the accumulation in COMEX and domestic inventories, while LME inventory decreased. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased from 17.75 to 18.16 million tons, a rise of 2.31%. The bonded area inventory decreased from 9.77 to 9.28 million tons, a decrease of 5.02%. The total global inventory increased from 71.05 to 73.58 million tons, a rise of 3.57% [7]. - **Profit Data**: The smelting comprehensive profit (spot) decreased from - 3453 to - 4992 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44.56%. The smelting comprehensive profit (long - term) decreased from - 106 to - 1559 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1368.14%. The import profit increased from - 601 to - 581 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.30% [7]. 3.2 Part 02: Copper Industry Chain Analysis - **Price and Spread**: The report presents data on SMM1 electrolytic copper premium/discount, Shanghai copper month - to - three - month spread, sulfuric acid price, Shanghai copper main contract closing price, Shanghai - London ratio, and LME(0 - 3) premium/discount over multiple years [12][15][17]. - **Cost and Profit**: It shows the electrolytic copper comprehensive profit (including by - product sulfuric acid), spot copper import profit, feed - in processing spot export profit, and electrolytic copper comprehensive profit (long - term) over multiple years [19][20]. - **Supply**: Data on copper concentrate production in Chile and Peru, copper concentrate import volume, scrap copper import volume, crude copper import volume, electrolytic copper production, electrolytic copper import volume, and total electrolytic copper supply are provided, including monthly and cumulative data and their changes over multiple years [26][30]. - **Demand**: - **Copper Rod - Cable**: Information on the operating rate of refined copper rod production, copper rod wire raw material inventory, copper rod wire finished product inventory ratio, and the operating rate of wire and cable production (weekly, monthly) is given [31]. - **Cable Terminal - Power Grid**: Data on cumulative and monthly power grid investment completion amount, cumulative and monthly power source investment completion amount, and their changes over multiple years are presented [33]. - **Copper Tube - Air Conditioner**: Information on the monthly operating rate of copper tubes, copper tube raw material inventory ratio, copper tube finished product inventory, monthly household air - conditioner production, domestic sales, and export volume, and their changes over multiple years are provided [42]. - **Copper Plate - Strip**: Data on the monthly operating rate of copper plate - strip, copper plate - strip raw material inventory, and copper plate - strip raw material inventory ratio, and their changes over multiple years are presented [44]. - **Terminal - Automobile**: Information on monthly automobile production, new - energy automobile production, automobile sales, and new - energy automobile sales, and their changes over multiple years are provided [50]. - **Brass Rod - Real Estate**: Data on the monthly operating rate of brass rods, 30 - city commercial housing transaction area, cumulative and monthly housing completion area, and their changes over multiple years are presented [53]. - **Inventory**: Data on China's electrolytic copper social inventory, SHFE copper inventory warrants, COMEX electrolytic copper inventory, LME electrolytic copper inventory, global refined copper inventory, and LME cancelled warrants and their proportions over multiple years are provided [58]. 3.3 Part 03: Capital Position - The CFTC non - commercial long - position ratio is 32%, showing a strengthening trend recently. The LME investment fund net long - position is 36768.23 lots, with a weekly decrease of 1814.84 lots [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market: Consider a strategy of buying on dips for stock index futures, and pay attention to index rotation. For Treasury bond futures, expect a volatile upward trend and focus on the odds of short-term bonds [9][10]. - Black commodities: May experience a volatile adjustment, with a mid-term outlook of overall volatility. For coal and coke, prices may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term. For ferroalloys, a mid-term bearish view remains. For soda ash and glass, consider taking short-term profits on soda ash shorts and adopt a wait-and-see approach for glass [12][13][14]. - Non-ferrous metals and new materials: For aluminum, follow the upward trend overseas but with limited domestic follow - up strength, so it is advisable to wait and see. For alumina, consider shorting on rallies. Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to fluctuate within a range [20][21][22]. - Agricultural products: For cotton, consider shorting on rallies. For sugar, the supply - demand situation is bearish, and consider short - term rolling operations or waiting and seeing. For eggs, operate with a volatile mindset. For apples, expect a volatile and upward trend. For corn, consider shorting the 01 contract or selling out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. For red dates, consider shorting on rallies. For live pigs, expect short - term price volatility [24][26][28]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil is expected to face a situation of oversupply and is prone to decline. Fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices. Plastics are expected to fluctuate weakly. Rubber is expected to fluctuate without a clear trend. Methanol is expected to fluctuate strongly. Caustic soda is expected to fluctuate. Asphalt is expected to trend strongly. Pulp is expected to be observed for port de - stocking and spot transactions. Logs are expected to have a weak - oscillating fundamental situation. Urea is expected to fluctuate. Synthetic rubber offers opportunities for short - term long positions on pullbacks [37][38][39]. Summary by Directory Macroeconomic News - Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and basic consensus was reached on resolving respective concerns [4]. - President Xi Jinping will attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in South Korea and conduct a state visit. The two sides are in close communication about a possible meeting between the Chinese and US presidents [4]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to bring about a new market space of about 10 trillion yuan in the next 5 years, and recreate China's high - tech industry in the next 10 years. It is also expected to generate over 5 trillion yuan in new investment demand for underground pipeline construction and renovation during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [4]. - US inflation data in September was lower than expected, and the market has fully priced in two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed within the year [4]. - Premier Li Qiang will attend a series of meetings in Malaysia [4]. - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen financial supervision, and promote high - level two - way financial opening [4]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will deepen comprehensive investment and financing reforms and strengthen the resilience and anti - risk ability of the capital market [4]. - Industry associations in logistics, non - ferrous metals, etc. have launched initiatives to resist "involution" - style competition [4]. - The US manufacturing and service PMIs in October showed an upward trend, while consumer confidence declined [4][5]. Stock Index Futures - A - shares opened higher and closed higher on Friday, with technology stocks leading the gains. The Sino - US talks may boost risk appetite, and the trading volume in the A - share market has rebounded. It is recommended to continue considering a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market is in a balanced and loose state. Affected by the Sino - US talks, risk appetite has increased, and bond prices have been suppressed. The central bank's net injection of 200 billion yuan through MLF in October is noted. It is expected that the monetary policy will be further loosened in the fourth quarter, and a volatile upward trend is expected for Treasury bond futures, with attention to the odds of short - term bonds [10]. Black Commodities - **Overall**: The black commodity market may experience a volatile adjustment, with a mid - term outlook of overall volatility. Policy expectations have cooled, and the market is focusing on real - world performance. The real demand for steel products in the fourth - quarter peak season has limited improvement, and there are concerns about negative feedback risks from supply and demand [12][13]. - **Coal and Coke**: Prices may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Supply is gradually recovering, but there are still expectations of "anti - involution", environmental protection restrictions, and safety inspections. The potential negative feedback risk from the steel industry may limit the upside of coal and coke prices [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: A mid - term bearish view remains. The industry's over - supply situation is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the market is under pressure from industrial hedging and market allocation funds [15]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, consider taking short - term profits on shorts. For glass, adopt a wait - and - see approach. The supply of soda ash has increased, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. The glass market is affected by the decline in the futures price, and the mid - stream inventory is relatively high [16][18]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum may follow the upward trend overseas, but domestic follow - up strength is limited, so it is advisable to wait and see. Alumina has a large supply surplus pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term due to strong demand and short - term supply approaching its peak [21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range, and polysilicon is expected to fluctuate narrowly within a range [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. Consider shorting on rallies. The international cotton market is affected by trade tariffs and the US government shutdown, while the domestic market is supported by cost but limited by supply pressure [24][25]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is facing a large supply surplus. Domestically, the supply is gradually increasing, and the price is under pressure from imports. Consider short - term rolling operations or waiting and seeing [26][27]. - **Eggs**: The egg - laying hen industry is in a "capacity reduction" process, and the futures market is showing strength. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the upside of the spot price may be limited. Operate with a volatile mindset [28][29]. - **Apples**: Expected to fluctuate strongly. The prices in the western producing areas are firm, and the late - maturing Fuji apples are gradually coming onto the market. Pay attention to the price changes, storage progress, and purchasing sentiment of merchants [30][31]. - **Corn**: Consider shorting the 01 contract or selling out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. The corn market is facing phased supply pressure, and pay attention to the new grain sales progress and the release rhythm of policy - supported wheat [32]. - **Red Dates**: Consider shorting on rallies. The market price is stable, but there is an expectation of a decline in the opening price [33]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply - demand situation is in a stalemate, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the end - of - month slaughter rhythm of large - scale enterprises [33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand may be suppressed. The supply - demand contradiction of oversupply is expected to become more prominent, and the price is prone to decline [37]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices will follow crude oil prices, and the short - term trading focus is on the supply concerns after the sanctions on Russia [38]. - **Plastics**: Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and are expected to fluctuate weakly. After a recent rebound, the upward momentum is insufficient [39]. - **Rubber**: Has no obvious trend and is mainly fluctuating. The cost is supported by rising upstream raw material prices, and pay attention to the raw material supply in the producing areas and macro - economic impacts [40]. - **Methanol**: The market is volatile due to the uncertainty of Iranian imports. Although the supply is large, there are supply - side disturbances. Consider a strategy of waiting for a rebound and then making a small - scale long - position allocation [41]. - **Caustic Soda**: Has a downward driving force due to weak spot prices but is supported by coal costs. Maintain a volatile mindset [42]. - **Asphalt**: The price trend is strong, and the focus is on the raw material concerns caused by the US military threat to Venezuela. The current demand is in the peak season, and the inventory reduction speed is normal [43]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Affected by the improvement in the macro - environment, it may be stronger in the short term. However, the fundamentals of PTA and ethylene glycol are still weak [45]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The short - term trend is strong, but the supply is abundant. The demand from the blending market may weaken, and pay attention to the development of Sino - US trade negotiations [46]. - **Paper Pulp**: The macro - sentiment has improved, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. Observe the port de - stocking and spot transactions, and consider establishing long positions on the 01 contract if the spot price is stable [46]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakly fluctuating, with stable downstream demand and cost support. Consider taking long positions on the 01 contract on dips [48]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand situation has improved, but the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. Maintain a volatile mindset [49]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: There are opportunities for short - term long positions on pullbacks, but the upward pressure is large, so be cautious about chasing the market [50].

Report Title - Weekly Report on Polypropylene Industry Chain of Zhongtai Futures, October 26, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The polypropylene market is under significant supply - demand pressure and will continue to fluctuate weakly [1] Summary by Directory 1. Recent Market Main Contradictions - Not provided 2. Polypropylene Supply - Demand Situation Supply - This week, due to more maintenance devices, the national polypropylene production decreased slightly from 80.10 million tons last week to 77.76 million tons, with a decrease of 2.34 million tons. In the next two weeks, as device maintenance decreases, production is likely to remain around 80 million tons. The maintenance loss this week was 21.70 million tons, an increase of 5.68 million tons compared to last week. The import and export volumes remained stable at 6.60 million tons for imports and 5.40 million tons for exports per week. In September, 2.9 billion tons were imported and 2.376 billion tons were exported [6]. - Many new polypropylene devices were put into production in 2024 and 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 4.25 billion tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 5.35 billion tons [20][21]. Demand - Downstream demand is currently not very good, and there is no accurate data for calculation [42]. Inventory - This week, there was a slight reduction in inventory. The total inventory decreased from 98.52 million tons last week to 92.53 million tons, a decrease of 5.99 million tons. It is expected to continue to reduce slightly next week. Upstream and mid - stream inventories also decreased slightly [6]. 3. Polypropylene Basis and Spread Basis - The basis overall showed a weakening trend. The East China basis decreased from - 50 last week to - 113 this week, the North China basis decreased from - 50 to - 140, and the South China basis decreased from - 50 to - 140. The basis opportunities are limited [8]. Spread - The inter - month spread fluctuated. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread decreased from - 52 to - 57. The spread between pellet and powder is too narrow, which has a certain supporting effect on pellet prices. The PP - 3MA spread on the 01 contract decreased from - 265 to - 154, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of shorting PP and going long on MA. The LL - PP spread on the 01 contract decreased from 323 to 307, and there are few short - term opportunities [8]. 4. Summary and Outlook Upper, Middle, and Lower Reaches Views - Upstream: Although currently in the peak maintenance period, the overall supply is still relatively sufficient, and the main idea is to actively sell goods. Despite low production profits, the upstream operating rate remains at a relatively high level without large - scale load reduction [10]. - Middle: The shipping situation has slightly deteriorated. After the rebound of the futures market, the shipping situation of spot - futures arbitrageurs has worsened [10]. - Lower: The replenishment willingness has decreased, and currently, the focus is on digesting previous inventories [10]. Strategy - Unilateral: Weakly fluctuating - Option: Selling call options strategy [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report PVC - This week, PVC production slightly decreased due to more-than-expected device overhauls. Next week, with some overhauled devices resuming production, production is expected to increase slightly. Export orders increased slightly this week, and this month's domestic apparent demand growth rate may be lower than expected. This week, the old sample of PVC inventory decreased by 28,000 tons, but it is expected to slightly accumulate next week. The upstream comprehensive profit slightly deteriorated, and the export profit also slightly worsened. The downstream demand is weak, and the overall domestic demand is not strong [6][9][10]. Caustic Soda - This week, the production of caustic soda decreased slightly due to more overhaul devices, but the overall production remained at a high level. It is expected to increase slightly next week. The apparent demand this week was around 724,900 tons, and it is estimated to be about 775,300 tons next week. The national inventory slightly accumulated this week, and it is estimated to accumulate next week based on static data, but may slightly decrease if production falls short of expectations. The comprehensive profit of Shandong chlor-alkali plants with external sales of liquid chlorine improved, while that of enterprises with supporting PVC slightly deteriorated [103][106]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs PVC 3.1 Spot Market - This week, the overall PVC price slightly decreased, while the caustic soda price remained stable, and the price of Shandong liquid chlorine rebounded. The prices of Shaanxi semi-coke increased, which may drive up the price of calcium carbide. The price of ethylene slightly strengthened, while the price of VCM decreased [7]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of PVC fluctuated weakly, and the monthly spread was in a state of shock. The 1 - 5 spread was in a state of shock, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased slightly [9]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Profit - The comprehensive profit of the PVC upstream slightly deteriorated, and the export profit also slightly worsened. Among them, the production profit of calcium carbide in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia decreased, the profit of northwest integrated PVC decreased, the profit of Shandong enterprises purchasing calcium carbide externally decreased significantly, and the profit of imported ethylene - based PVC decreased [9]. 3.4 Market Expectation - Next week, PVC production is expected to increase slightly, and the inventory may slightly accumulate. The downstream demand is expected to remain weak, and the overall market may remain in a weak state [6]. Caustic Soda 3.1 Spot Market - The price of Shandong liquid chlorine rebounded this week, while the price of Shandong raw salt remained stable. The price of caustic soda remained stable, and the comprehensive profit of Shandong chlor - alkali plants with external sales of liquid chlorine improved, while that of enterprises with supporting PVC slightly deteriorated [104][106]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of caustic soda weakened, and the monthly spread showed a state of shock. The 1 - 5 spread is recommended to be observed, focusing on the reverse arbitrage opportunity [106]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Profit - The comprehensive profit of Shandong chlor - alkali plants with external sales of liquid chlorine improved, while that of enterprises with supporting PVC slightly deteriorated. The export profit of caustic soda is expected to strengthen [106]. 3.4 Market Expectation - Next week, the production of caustic soda is expected to increase slightly, and the inventory may accumulate. The apparent demand is estimated to be around 775,300 tons. The market may remain relatively stable, but attention should be paid to the impact of production on inventory [103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The polyethylene market is under significant supply pressure and should be approached with a bearish outlook. The upstream supply is ample, and the downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, with expected weakening. The upstream profit is expected to remain weak, and the market is likely to experience weak and volatile trends [1][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions - Supply pressure is relatively large. Upstream has sufficient supply, and downstream demand is gradually decreasing as the peak season is ending [1][7]. 3.2 Polyethylene Industry Situation 3.2.1 Polyethylene Market Situation - **Production**: This week's production slightly decreased to 64.81 million tons. Next week, due to the restart of many maintenance devices, production may slightly increase to 65.72 million tons [5]. - **Imports and Exports**: The import volume is stable at 23.23 million tons, and the export volume is 2.50 million tons. In September, imports were 102 million tons, and exports were 9.9 million tons, slightly higher than expected [5]. - **Apparent Demand**: This week's calculated apparent demand increased slightly to 86.04 million tons [5]. - **Inventory**: There was a slight de - stocking this week, with the total inventory dropping from 106.40 million tons to 105.91 million tons. Next week, a slight inventory build - up is expected, reaching 109.06 million tons [5]. 3.2.2 Valuation - **Raw Material Cost and Upstream Profit**: Crude oil prices rebounded slightly, and coal prices strengthened slightly. PE costs have been oscillating upwards recently. With raw materials strengthening and finished product prices weakening, upstream profits are expected to remain weak next week [6]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit improved from - 343 to - 155, while HD import profit decreased from 388 to 31. PE export profit weakened, and import profit deteriorated [6]. 3.2.3 Views on Upstream, Mid - stream, and Downstream - **Upstream**: There are many maintenance devices, but production is still high, and the upstream is mainly focused on active sales [7]. - **Mid - stream**: The mid - stream's sales situation is average. After the futures market weakened, futures - cash arbitrageurs actively sold [7]. - **Downstream**: This week's downstream transactions were average. The downstream mainly purchases as needed, and as the peak demand season is ending, demand is expected to decline slightly [7]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis has been oscillating and weakening recently. For example, the North China basis decreased from - 10 to - 40 [6]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The inter - monthly spread has been oscillating. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread decreased from - 33 to - 52 [6]. - **Variety Spread**: HD - LL has been oscillating. The far - month LL - PP spread is recommended to be temporarily exited for observation [6]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - **Strategy**: The market is expected to be weakly volatile. The recommended option strategy is to sell call options [7].

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Black Supply Weekly Report - Ferroalloys [1] - Report date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Research institute: Zhongtai Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Dong Xueshan [2] - Qualification number: F3075616 [2] - Trading consultation certificate number: Z0018025 [2] Group 2: Weekly Production Data Silicon Manganese - National weekly production: 20.74 million tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 17.55% [3] - Inner Mongolia weekly production: 9.90 million tons, a decrease of 1,260 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.00% [3] - Ningxia weekly production: 4.63 million tons, an increase of 1,225 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.07% [3] - Guangxi weekly production: 0.98 million tons, a decrease of 665 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.94% [3] - Guizhou weekly production: 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 210 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 18.61% [3] - Yunnan weekly production: 1.60 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.94% [3] - Other regions weekly production: 2.16 million tons, a decrease of 490 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 24.00% [3] Silicon Iron - National weekly production: 11.41 million tons, an increase of 1,260 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.41% [3] - Inner Mongolia weekly production: 3.61 million tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.44% [3] - Ningxia weekly production: 2.98 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.87% [3] - Shaanxi weekly production: 1.73 million tons, an increase of 560 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.28% [3] - Qinghai weekly production: 1.62 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 10.32% [3] - Gansu weekly production: 1.36 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.31% [3] - Other regions weekly production: 0.01 million tons, an increase of 1 ton from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.01% [3] Group 3: Data Source - Data source: Mysteel; organized by Zhongtai Futures [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro - economic and Policy**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee proposed major goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. Macroeconomic policies are expected to continue to exert force, and there is a need to actively and steadily resolve local government debt risks. Fiscal policy may enter a bottleneck, while monetary policy is likely to be further loosened in the fourth quarter [6][9]. - **Stock and Bond Markets**: For stock index futures, a strategy of buying on dips can be considered, paying attention to index rotation. For treasury bond futures, an upward - trending and volatile strategy is recommended, focusing on the odds of short - term bonds [9][10]. - **Commodity Markets**: Different commodities have different trends. For example, in the black metal market, steel and ore are expected to be volatile in the medium - term; in the energy and chemical market, crude oil may rebound in the short - term but will be based on fundamentals in the long - term [13][37]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - financial - **Stock Index Futures**: A strategy of buying on dips can be continued, paying attention to index rotation. The A - share market was affected by the Fourth Plenary Session and the Sino - US talks in Malaysia. The market is expected to see continuous efforts from macro - policies [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: An upward - trending and volatile strategy is recommended, focusing on the odds of short - term bonds. The market was also affected by the Fourth Plenary Session and the Sino - US talks. Fiscal policy may face a bottleneck, and monetary policy is likely to be loosened [10]. Black Metals - **Steel and Ore**: Steel and ore are expected to be volatile in the medium - term. Iron ore short positions can be reduced on dips. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for rolled plates is mixed. Raw material costs are volatile, and there is a risk of negative feedback if demand is poor [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to be volatile and strong in the short - term. Supply is gradually recovering, but there are still expectations of "anti - involution", environmental protection, and safety inspections. The demand for finished products during the "Golden September and Silver October" needs to be observed [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: The medium - term outlook for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is bearish. The 23rd saw the ferrosilicon 01 contract rise to 5570 yuan/ton and the silicomanganese 01 contract rise to 5820 yuan/ton, affected by coking coal sentiment [16]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, a bearish strategy can be short - term profitable. For glass, a wait - and - see approach is recommended. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and the inventory of glass has increased [17][18]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile at a high level, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. Alumina prices are expected to continue to decline, and shorting on rallies when the price is at a premium is advisable [20]. - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc inventories have decreased. The price of zinc can be temporarily observed. Overseas LME zinc inventories continue to decline, and the spot premium has risen rapidly [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term supply disruptions and strong demand support the price, and it is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term [22]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to be volatile and weak in a range. Polysilicon will continue to be volatile in a narrow range, with the lower limit supported by spot prices and the upper limit depending on the implementation of capacity merger policies [23]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. The international cotton market has uncertainties, and domestic cotton supply is increasing while demand is still weak [27]. - **Sugar**: A bearish rolling operation or a wait - and - see approach is recommended. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus, and domestic sugar supply is gradually increasing [28]. - **Eggs**: A strategy of shorting near - month contracts on rallies is recommended. The supply of eggs is still abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The 01 contract is affected by the expectation of capacity reduction and the peak season before the Spring Festival [29]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to be volatile. The price of apples in the western region is firm, and attention should be paid to price changes, storage progress, and merchants' purchasing sentiment [32]. - **Corn**: A strategy of shorting the 01 contract or selling out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract is recommended. Corn prices are affected by supply and demand in different regions, and there is a risk of substitution from policy - released wheat [33]. - **Red Dates**: A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. The market price is stable, and the opening price is expected to decline [34]. - **Pigs**: A strategy of shorting the LH2601 contract on rallies is recommended. The supply of pigs is abundant, and although there is some support at the bottom, there is no strong driving force for a significant price increase [35]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil may rebound in the short - term due to geopolitical factors, but will be based on fundamentals in the long - term. Supply is increasing steadily, and demand is expected to weaken [37]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil prices will follow the trend of crude oil. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The short - term focus is on the impact of sanctions on Russia [38]. - **Plastics**: Polyolefins are expected to be volatile and weak from a supply - demand perspective. The current price is relatively low, and there may be a small - scale rebound. Short positions can be reduced appropriately [39]. - **Rubber**: Rubber is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term. A strategy of buying on dips can be considered, but chasing the rise should be cautious [40]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term. There are uncertainties in supply, and a small - scale long - position can be considered after a rebound driving force appears [42]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices are trending strongly, affected by geopolitical factors and seasonal demand. The production has decreased, and the inventory reduction speed is normal [43]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: A short - term strategy of going long with cost can be considered, but the overall fundamentals are still weak. An arbitrage opportunity of PTA 1 - 5 reverse spread can be observed [44]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: LPG may rise in the short - term due to geopolitical factors, but is expected to be weak relative to crude oil in the long - term. The supply is abundant, and the demand is expected to weaken [44]. Others - **Offset Printing Paper**: The market is expected to be volatile and weak. A strategy of selling put options near the factory production cost or selling call options on rebounds can be considered [46]. - **Pulp**: A strategy of going long on the 01 contract on dips can be considered if the spot price is stable. The inventory of pulp has decreased slightly, and the price of white cardboard is expected to increase [47]. - **Logs**: A strategy of going long on the 01 contract on dips can be considered. The cost provides some support, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and freight [47]. - **Urea**: A volatile strategy is recommended. The spot price has increased, and the futures price is volatile and strong. The demand from the compound fertilizer industry in Henan has increased [48]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: A strategy of short - term long - position on dips can be considered, but the upward pressure is large. The price of butadiene is weak, and the profit of butadiene rubber is improving [49].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the macro - financial sector, for stock index futures, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to index rotation. For treasury bond futures, an upward - trending and volatile view is held, with focus on the odds of short - term bonds. The overall economic situation shows a supply - strong and demand - weak state, and it is expected that the monetary policy will be further loosened in the fourth quarter [10][12]. - In the black sector, steel and ore are expected to maintain a volatile market in the medium - term. Iron ore short positions should be reduced on dips. The coal - coke price may continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and the supply of coal is expected to shrink in the future. The silicon - iron is stronger than manganese - silicon from the perspective of supply - demand and cost support [14][16][17]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. The alumina price is expected to continue to decline, and short - selling on rallies when the futures price is at a premium is suggested. The zinc price is expected to decline, and short positions should be held. The lithium carbonate price will fluctuate in the short - term, and the industrial silicon and polysilicon will run within a narrow range [23][24][25]. - In the agricultural products sector, for cotton, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended due to increasing supply pressure and weak demand. For sugar, the domestic sugar supply - demand situation is bearish, and short - selling or waiting and seeing is advised. For eggs, short - selling near - month contracts on rallies is recommended. For apples, the price will fluctuate. For corn, short - selling the 01 contract or selling out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract is recommended. For red dates, a wait - and - see approach is suggested. For live pigs, short - selling the LH2601 contract on rallies is recommended [30][32][34]. - In the energy and chemical sector, for crude oil, there may be a short - term rebound, but the medium - and long - term trading is based on fundamentals. The fuel oil price will follow the oil price. The polyolefin price will fluctuate weakly. The rubber price will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. The methanol price will fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and a small amount of long - positions can be considered after the emergence of a rebound driver. The caustic soda price will fluctuate. For the polyester industry chain, short - term long - positions can be tried lightly, but the overall rebound space is limited. The LPG supply is abundant, and a bearish view is held in the long - term [41][42][44]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The US President Trump expects to reach a good trade agreement with China during the APEC meeting, but the meeting may be cancelled. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has no information to provide on this specific issue [6]. - The Asset Management Association of China is about to release a draft for public comments on the performance comparison benchmark rules for public funds. Many fund managers have submitted a batch of indices as performance comparison benchmarks [6]. - The National Bureau of Statistics released the unemployment rate data for different age groups in September. The unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group is 17.7%, 7.2% for the 25 - 29 age group, and 3.9% for the 30 - 59 age group [6]. - Regional small and medium - sized banks have started a new round of deposit interest rate cuts, with a maximum reduction of 80 basis points [6]. - Nanjing has introduced a housing provident fund support policy for multi - child families, with the maximum loan amount increased by 20% [7]. - As of October 21, the US federal government debt has exceeded $38 trillion [7]. - The EU has approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on importing Russian liquefied natural gas [8]. - The Japanese Prime Minister has ordered a new round of economic measures, with a scale possibly exceeding 13.9 trillion yen [8]. - India and the US are about to reach a trade agreement, which may reduce the tariff on Indian goods exported to the US from about 50% to 15% - 16% [8]. - Japan's exports in September increased by 4.2% year - on - year, driven by semiconductor exports [8]. - The main contracts of US crude oil and Brent crude oil rose by 3.74% and 4.94% respectively [8]. Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market showed a volatile and contracting volume trend. The real estate, deep - earth economy, and banking sectors led the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to 3913.76 points, and the full - day trading volume was 1.69 trillion yuan [10]. - The Q3 GDP growth was 4.8%, which was in line with expectations. Industrial production exceeded expectations, but the demand side was more differentiated, with exports better than before and social retail and fixed - asset investment further weakening [10]. - It is expected that the fiscal policy may reach a bottleneck, and the monetary policy will be further loosened in the fourth quarter [10]. Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market was balanced and loose, with DR001 around 1.32%. The bond market was slightly strengthened by the Bloomberg's easing expectations in the afternoon [12]. - The economic situation is similar to that of stock index futures, and it is expected that the monetary policy will be further loosened in the fourth quarter [12]. Black Steel and Ore - From a macro perspective, the statement of the important meeting is expected to be neutral. The real demand for steel downstream has limited improvement, and the market is expected to be volatile and weak in the peak season and may be better in the off - season [14]. - The real estate sales data is weak, and infrastructure projects have capital pressure. The demand for rolled plates is okay, but the high inventory of galvanized and cold - rolled products affects the steel valuation [14]. - Iron ore short positions should be reduced on dips, and steel and ore are expected to be volatile in the medium - term [14]. Coal - Coke - The coal - coke price may continue to fluctuate in the short - term. The supply of coal is expected to shrink in the future due to policies such as "anti - involution" and safety inspections [16]. - The current high iron - water production and active procurement by downstream enterprises support the coal - coke price, but the poor steel mill profits and weak peak - season demand limit the upward space [16]. Ferroalloys - The silicon - iron is stronger than manganese - silicon from the perspective of supply - demand and cost support. The reasonable valuation range of the price difference between the two is [-400, - 250] [17]. - There is no clear trading strategy for single - side trading at present [17]. Non - Ferrous and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to factors such as Sino - US trade frictions and strong demand fundamentals. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [23]. - The alumina price is expected to continue to decline due to high production and inventory levels. Short - selling on rallies when the futures price is at a premium is suggested [23]. Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory has increased. The zinc price is expected to decline, and short positions should be held [24]. - The trading volume of zinc in the domestic spot market is light, and the downstream enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm is not high [24]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term supply disturbances and strong demand support the price, but the long - term supply - demand situation may weaken, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [25]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon market has no prominent supply - demand contradictions and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range [26]. - The polysilicon price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a narrow range, with the lower limit affected by policy expectations [28]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. A short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [30]. - The domestic cotton price has rebounded, but the supply pressure remains. The downstream demand is still weak, and there are uncertainties in external demand [30][31]. Sugar - The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is bearish. The import profit and low - price impact drag down the sugar price, but the cost provides some support [32]. - The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 740 million tons in the 2025/26 season. Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase, and India's early crushing adds bearish pressure [32]. Eggs - The egg supply is loose, and the short - term spot price may be stable and weak. It is recommended to short - sell near - month contracts on rallies [34]. - The current egg - laying hen inventory is high, and the capacity reduction is slow. The egg price may have limited further decline space, but the supply pressure remains [34]. Apples - The apple price is expected to fluctuate. The price in the western region is firm, and the market is affected by factors such as the listing volume and acquisition sentiment [36]. Corn - A short - selling strategy on the 01 contract or selling out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract is recommended [36]. - The corn price has rebounded in the short - term, but the supply pressure in the Northeast is accumulating, and the possible release of policy wheat may have a substitution impact [36]. Red Dates - A wait - and - see approach is suggested. The market price is stable, and the opening price is expected to decline [37][38]. Live Pigs - The spot price may have a short - term rebound, but the supply pressure continues. Short - selling the LH2601 contract on rallies is recommended [38][39]. - The current pig supply is sufficient, but the low price has led to increased reluctance to sell and second - fattening, which provides some support to the price [39]. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - Geopolitical factors drive the oil price to rebound. The supply is increasing steadily, and the demand is expected to weaken [41]. - The oil price may have a short - term rebound, but the medium - and long - term trading is based on fundamentals [41]. Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price will follow the oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak [42]. - Geopolitical and macro factors jointly affect the oil price, and the impact of sanctions on Russian fuel oil supply needs to be considered [42]. Plastics - The polyolefin supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Short - term rebounds may occur, and previous short positions can be reduced [44]. - The upstream production is high, and the downstream demand is weak [44]. Rubber - The rubber price will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. Attention can be paid to double - selling strategies or short - term long - positions on pullbacks [45]. - Overseas raw material prices are rising, and the EU's new standards may affect future downstream procurement and domestic arrivals [45]. Methanol - The methanol price fluctuates greatly due to factors such as the arrival of Iranian goods. It is recommended to wait for a rebound driver and then consider a small amount of long - positions [46]. - The supply pressure is large, and the impact of imported goods arrival needs further observation [46]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price is expected to fluctuate. The weak alumina price suppresses the caustic soda futures [47]. - The spot price is weak, and the high - concentration alkali inventory in Shandong is increasing [47]. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain prices are strong due to cost increases and improved sentiment. Short - term long - positions can be tried lightly, but the rebound space is limited [48]. - The PX supply may shrink, the PTA price is driven by cost and downstream replenishment, and the ethylene glycol price rebounds due to device news and cost increases [48]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The LPG supply is abundant. The demand from the blending oil market may weaken, but the PDH profit has improved [50]. - A bearish view is held in the long - term, but short - term geopolitical factors may cause price rebounds [50].

晨会纪要 2025 年 10 月 22 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号： [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 液化石油气 | 沥青 | 乙二醇 | | | | 原油 | 合成橡胶 | 短纤 | | | | 铝 | 中证500股指期货 | PTA | | | | 氧化铝 | 中证1000指数期货 | 瓶片 | | | | 白糖 | 沪深300股指期货 | 对二甲苯 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 燃油 | 橡胶 | | | | 纸浆 | 烧碱 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 纯碱 | 棉纱 | 甲醇 | | | | | 棉花 | 塑料 | | | | | 三十债 | | | | | | 十债 | | | | | | 五债 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply side of logs is under obvious pressure, with an expected increase in arrivals in October. The demand has not shown a significant improvement, and the orders of sawmills are relatively sluggish. The inventory is expected to fluctuate and accumulate under the condition of increased arrivals and stable demand. The cost side still provides support, and it is recommended to try to go long on the 01 contract at low prices, but pay attention to risk prevention. Short - term focus should be on downstream demand and the impact of freight and shipping capacity [7][9][17] Summary by Directory Part 1: Log Overview - **Supply - end**: In September 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs was about 2.0013 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 16.01%. From January to September 2025, the total import volume was about 18.016 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.14%. The expected arrivals this week are expected to rebound, and the subsequent arrivals in October are still relatively concentrated [7] - **Demand and Inventory - end**: The demand has not shown a significant improvement, the orders of sawmills are relatively sluggish, and there are no concentrated large orders. The market confidence is weak. With the increase in arrivals this week and stable demand, the inventory is expected to fluctuate and accumulate [9] - **Price and Spread**: The spot price is relatively stable, and the spread is also relatively stable. The basis can be considered at the level of 5.9m medium - A radiata pine, with a reference size difference of 8%, equivalent to about 790 - 800 yuan per cubic meter on the disk [11][13] - **Cost and Profit**: The import cost has increased, the import profit has shrunk, and the short - term fundamentals are still in a volatile state. As the off - season approaches, the import cost is expected to return [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The spot is stable, and the demand - side sawmill orders are relatively weak. The fundamentals are weakly volatile, and the downstream demand is stable. Try to go long on the 01 contract at low prices, and focus on downstream demand and the impact of freight and shipping capacity in the short term [17] Part 2: Log Balance Sheet - The log balance sheet shows the data of demand, supply, and inventory from June 2025 to October 2025, including daily average shipments, arrivals, arrival volumes, and total inventory, etc. [19] Part 3: Log Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - end**: It includes the shipment volume of New Zealand logs, log imports, and imports by tree species, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content [25][27][30] - **Demand - end**: It includes the daily average shipment volume of logs, the real estate situation, and the downstream analysis of logs, such as the price and profit of wood squares and the analysis of downstream substitutes. However, specific data details are not fully presented [34][36][41] - **Inventory - end**: It includes the summary of inventory, inventory by tree species, and inventory by region, but specific data details are not fully presented [58][60][66] Part 4: Cost and Profit - It includes the import cost and profit of logs and the delivery profit of logs, but specific data details are not fully presented [72][77] Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis - **Log Outer - market Quotation**: It shows the outer - market quotations of radiata pine and spruce, and the price and spread seasonality of radiata pine and spruce, as well as the basis between radiata pine and LG and the seasonal chart and inter - month spread of the LG main contract. However, specific data details are not fully presented [82][85][95]