交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 11 月 3 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | --- | --- | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | | [Table_QuotePic] | 中泰微投研小程序 | | [Table_Report] | 中泰期货公众号 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 宏观资讯 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | 偏空 | 農荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 甲醇 | 菜油 | | 白糖 | 鸡蛋 | 玻璃 | | 焦炭 | 焦煤 | 沥青 | | 玉米淀粉 | 沪铜 | 棕櫚油 | | 沪锌 | 沪银 | 直滞 | | 聚丙烯 | 铁矿石 | 直— | | 夏粕 | PVC | 护锡 | | | 沪铝 | | | | 锰 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For PVC, the overall production is expected to increase slightly as some previously shut - down units resume production. The apparent demand is expected to decline slightly, and the inventory is likely to accumulate slightly. The production profit of some production methods has changed, and the export profit has slightly improved. The upstream price has decreased, and the downstream demand is weak. The strategy suggests paying attention to spot - futures arbitrage opportunities and adopting a short - biased position after a rebound [6][9][10]. - For caustic soda, the production is at a high level and is expected to remain so. The apparent demand is expected to increase slightly, and the inventory may accumulate slightly if demand does not meet expectations. The profit of some types of plants has changed, and the export profit is expected to strengthen. The strategy recommends a short - biased approach and a 1 - 5 reverse spread [101][103][104]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PVC 3.1.1 PVC Supply and Production - Production: This week's total PVC production was 47.70 million tons, a slight increase from last week. Next week, it is expected to reach 50.61 million tons. The production of ethylene - based PVC decreased slightly this week, while the production of calcium carbide - based PVC increased. The import and export volumes remained stable. The apparent demand decreased slightly this week, and the expected demand for next week is 42.72 million tons. The inventory decreased slightly this week but is expected to accumulate slightly next week [6]. - Production Profit: The calcium carbide production profit in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The production profit of some PVC production methods increased slightly, while the production profit of the East China VCM - purchasing method decreased. The export profit improved slightly, and the basis and monthly spread changed [9]. 3.1.2 PVC Price and Basis - Price: The spot prices of PVC in different regions and production methods showed some fluctuations this week. The FOB Tianjin price also changed. The warehouse receipt volume decreased slightly [17]. - Basis: The basis of PVC in different regions and contracts weakened this week [9]. 3.1.3 PVC Monthly Spread - The 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread of PVC contracts showed different trends this week, with the 1 - 5 spread strengthening slightly [9][25]. 3.1.4 PVC Import and Export - International Price: The international PVC prices in different years and months showed certain trends [68][69][70]. - Export Profit: The export profit of PVC to different regions changed, with the profit to India increasing and the profit to Southeast Asia decreasing [9]. 3.1.5 PVC Demand - Downstream Operating Rate: The operating rates of PVC downstream profiles and pipes showed different trends in different years and months [83]. 3.1.6 PVC Inventory - Inventory: The total PVC inventory decreased slightly this week, with the middle - stream inventory decreasing and the upstream inventory increasing slightly. The inventory is expected to accumulate slightly next week [6]. 3.2 Caustic Soda 3.2.1 Caustic Soda Supply and Production - Production: This week's total caustic soda production was 82.91 million tons, an increase from last week. Next week, it is expected to remain at a high level. The import and export volumes remained stable. The apparent demand increased slightly this week, and the expected demand for next week is 77.53 million tons. The inventory increased slightly this week and may change depending on demand [101]. - Production Profit: The comprehensive profit of Shandong chlor - alkali decreased slightly. The profit of Shandong caustic soda + liquid chlorine increased, and the export profit of caustic soda is expected to strengthen. The basis and monthly spread changed [103]. 3.2.2 Caustic Soda Price and Basis - Price: The spot prices of caustic soda in different regions and types showed some fluctuations this week [113]. - Basis: The basis of caustic soda in different contracts weakened this week [103][114]. 3.2.3 Caustic Soda Monthly Spread - The 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread of caustic soda contracts showed different trends this week, with the 1 - 5 spread weakening [103][120]. 3.2.4 Caustic Soda Inventory - Inventory: The total caustic soda inventory increased slightly this week, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda increased. The inventory may change depending on demand [101]. 3.2.5 Caustic Soda Downstream - The production and operating rates of caustic soda downstream products such as alumina, printing and dyeing, and viscose staple fiber showed different trends in different years and months [147][148][152].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The methanol market is currently in a weak and volatile state. Although there has been a slight reduction in port inventory, the market is still constrained by high inventory levels, and the fundamental improvement is not significant. There is significant supply pressure, and the impact of potential winter gas restrictions in Iran on production and the timing are uncertain. Given the high inventory and potential positive factors such as winter gas restrictions, an overly bearish view is not advisable. It is recommended to adopt a weak and volatile trading strategy, with a small long - position allocation after a rebound driver emerges. The hedging strategy is to wait and see [3][85]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Market - Methanol spot market prices have continued to decline recently, with recent basis quotes around 01 - 45 yuan/ton, and the basis quote for November paper goods at 01 - 5 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Basis and Spread - **Basis of Each Contract**: The basis quotes for methanol have strengthened this week, with the basis quote for November paper goods around 01 - 5 yuan/ton [15]. - **Basis of Each Region**: Coastal basis has fluctuated, and inland basis has also been volatile. The inland market prices, especially those in the northwest region, have fluctuated this week [22][31]. - **Regional Spread**: The spread between East China and inland regions has weakened. The current spread is still in a reverse - arbitrage trend. The PP - 3MA spread has weakened this week, and attention can be paid to potential opportunities to short PP and long MA in the future [40][49][55]. 3. Industrial Chain Profit - **Production and Operation**: Recently, there have been many newly - added maintenance devices, and the methanol operating rate is slightly lower than last year. As maintenance devices gradually resume production, methanol production has increased slightly [60][64]. - **Downstream Operation**: The dimethyl ether operating rate has fluctuated, the formaldehyde operating rate has rebounded, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins in the northwest has been high and volatile, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins devices has fluctuated this week, and MTO profits have slightly increased [69][72][75]. 4. Market Outlook - The methanol market is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state. Although there is high inventory pressure, there are also positive factors such as potential winter gas restrictions. It is recommended to adopt a weak and volatile trading strategy, with a small long - position allocation after a rebound driver emerges. The hedging strategy is to wait and see [3][85].

供需压力仍大，继续偏弱震荡 中泰期货聚丙烯产业链周报 2025年11月02日 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 聚丙烯基差价差 2 聚丙烯供需情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 聚丙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 1、聚丙烯综述 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 | | | 上周 | 本周 | 周环比 | 下周 | 下下周 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 国产量 | 77.76 | 78.92 | 1.15 | 81.39 | 83.07 | 本周检修装置较少，产量小幅度增 加，未来两周装置检修减少，产量可 | | 产量 | | | | | | | 能继续增加。 | | （万吨） | 检修损失量 ...

Commodity Rating Based on Fundamental Analysis - **Trend Bearish**: No specific commodities mentioned - **Oscillating Bearish**: Fuel oil, Urea, Caustic soda, Alumina, Red dates, Live pigs, Asphalt [2] - **Oscillating**: CSI 300 Index Futures, Industrial silicon, SSE 50 Index Futures, CSI 500 Index Futures, CSI 1000 Index Futures, Liquefied petroleum gas, Polysilicon, Crude oil, 10-year Treasury bond futures, 2-year Treasury bond futures, Cotton, Rubber, 30-year Treasury bond futures, 5-year Treasury bond futures, Lithium carbonate, Cotton yarn, Sugar, Synthetic rubber, Aluminum, Pulp, PTA Ethylene glycol, Offset printing paper, Corn, Bottle chips, p-Xylene, Short fiber, Ferrosilicon, Silicomanganese, Glass, Eggs, Soda ash, Coke, Hot-rolled coil, Rebar, Iron ore, Coking coal, Apples, Methanol, Logs [2] - **Oscillating Bullish**: Plastic [2] - **Trend Bullish**: No specific commodities mentioned Commodity Rating Based on Quantitative Indicators - **Bearish**: Soybean meal 2, Rapeseed meal, Soybean meal, Sugar, Coke, PTA, Silicomanganese [4] - **Oscillating**: Methanol, Soybean meal 1, Corn, Shanghai Lead, Shanghai Silver, Shanghai Aluminum, Shanghai Copper, Polypropylene, Coking coal, Eggs, PVC, Plastic, Corn starch, Iron ore, Hot-rolled coil, Shanghai Zinc, Zhengzhou Cotton, Rebar, Rubber [4] - **Bullish**: Glass, Asphalt, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, Shanghai Tin, Soybean oil, Shanghai Gold [4] Macroeconomic News - China and the US reached consensus on economic and trade issues, with the US canceling the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspending relevant export control and investigation measures for one year. China will adjust or suspend relevant countermeasures accordingly [8] - The ECB maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the third consecutive time, believing that inflation has reached the 2% target. The Eurozone's Q3 GDP grew better than expected, but member states' performance diverged [9] - The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the sixth consecutive time, with two policy committee members opposing and suggesting a 25-basis-point rate hike [10] - The CSRC approved the registration of Moore Thread's IPO on the STAR Market, with the company planning to raise 8 billion yuan [9] - The weighted average interest rate of newly issued commercial personal housing loans in Q3 2025 was 3.07% [9] Macro - Financial Market Stock Index Futures - Adopt a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. A - shares fell on heavy volume, but the lithium - battery industry chain was strong. The Q3 reports of A - share listed companies showed that revenue and net profit increased year - on - year, and the profit growth rate in Q3 improved significantly. Monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in Q4 [12] Treasury Bond Futures - Monetary policy loosening is in the implementation stage, and bonds still have upward momentum. The capital market is balanced and loose, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP [13][14] Black Metals Steel and Iron Ore - In the short term, the black metal market may adjust slightly and maintain an oscillating trend. Policy has a significant impact on market sentiment. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for coils is fair. Supply remains high, and steel mill profits are low. The valuation of steel is expected to remain between valley - and peak - electricity costs, and the rebound space of steel prices is limited [15] Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. Supply is gradually recovering, but there are still expectations of production checks and environmental protection restrictions. However, the weakening of steel demand in the off - season may limit the price rebound [17] Ferroalloys - It is recommended to take a bearish position on the medium - term trend of ferroalloys and control positions. The prices of ferroalloys rose in the morning and then fell in the afternoon due to the overall market decline [17] Soda Ash and Glass - It is recommended to wait and see. The inventory of soda ash is basically stable, and the supply is high. The inventory of glass decreased slightly, and the spot price is stable. Future attention should be paid to demand in the peak season and fuel upgrade progress [19] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - It is recommended to wait and see for aluminum. Although the market tension has eased, domestic demand is weak. For alumina, it is recommended to short on rallies as the supply surplus pressure is large, and cost support is weakening [21] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate will continue to oscillate strongly in the short term due to strong demand and a decrease in supply [22] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon will oscillate within a range as the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Polysilicon will also oscillate narrowly, with the lower limit supported by spot prices and the upper limit depending on capacity merger policies [23][24] Agricultural Products Cotton - It is recommended to be cautious when operating on the rebound of cotton prices. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. Although Zhengzhou cotton is supported by cost and basis repair, the overall supply pressure still restricts the rebound space [27] Sugar - It is recommended to either conduct short - rolling operations or wait and see. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and domestic supply pressure is increasing. However, cost support and import restrictions may limit the decline [28][29] Eggs - It is recommended to wait and see or try short - selling on rallies. The egg industry is in the process of capacity reduction, and the futures market is strong. However, the supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the increase in spot prices may be limited [30] Apples - Apples are expected to oscillate strongly. The prices in the western producing areas are firm, and the national inventory is lower than the same period last year. Future attention should be paid to price changes, inventory progress, and buyer sentiment [33] Corn - It is recommended to be cautious when shorting near - month contracts and consider going long on far - month contracts. Corn prices are oscillating. The support from state - owned grain depots and rigid demand may drive a short - term rebound, but new grain supply pressure and potential wheat substitution may limit the upward movement [34] Red Dates - It is recommended to short on rallies or wait and see. The market price of red dates is stable, and there is an expectation of a lower opening price [35] Live Pigs - It is recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies. The spot price is weakening, and the supply is abundant. The market lacks the conditions for a significant price rebound [35][36] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The price of crude oil is likely to fall as the supply - demand contradiction is becoming more prominent. EIA inventory decreased unexpectedly, but OPEC+ may increase production, and demand may be suppressed [38] Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil will follow the trend of oil prices. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the impact of sanctions on Russian supply [39] Plastics - Polyolefins may have an emotional rebound in the short term due to improved market sentiment, but the supply pressure is large, and it is recommended to hedge after the rebound [39] Rubber - Rubber will oscillate as the macro - level benefits have been realized, and there is no obvious fundamental logic. Short - term double - selling strategies can be considered [40] Methanol - It is recommended to adopt an oscillating strategy and consider going long in small amounts after a rebound driver appears. The market is highly volatile due to factors such as Iranian imports and gas restrictions, and inventory is high [41][42] Caustic Soda - It is recommended to take a bearish - oscillating view. The supply of caustic soda exceeds demand, but coal prices may provide some support. The risk of short - selling lies in the cost support after the weakening of liquid chlorine prices [43] Asphalt - Asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly. Oil prices are affected by geopolitical and macro factors, and asphalt demand is entering the end - stage, with production set to increase again [44] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG will follow the trend of crude oil in the short term. Supply is abundant, and demand may weaken. There is a possibility that LPG may underperform crude oil in the coming week [47]

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-shares showed a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 4000 points, and the North Securities 50 soaring over 8%. The new energy sector exploded, and sectors such as non-ferrous metals, computing hardware, quantum technology, and Hainan Free Trade Concept also rose significantly. Consider a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation [8]. - The implementation of monetary policy is entering a phase of realization, and bonds still have upward momentum. There is a divergence in the Fed's path of interest rate cuts, and the market's expectation of loose monetary policy is increasing [8][9][10]. - The black market is expected to continue its short - term rebound but with limited space, and maintain a mid - term oscillation pattern. The prices of double - coking coal may continue to oscillate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the disturbances from coal mine inspections and downstream molten iron production changes [11]. - For colored metals and new materials, it is recommended to wait and see for aluminum, and short on rallies for alumina. For zinc, hold short positions. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to oscillate within a range [17][18][20]. - In the agricultural products market, for cotton, consider shorting on rebounds with caution; for sugar, use a short - rolling strategy or wait and see; for eggs, wait and see or try shorting lightly on rallies; apples are expected to oscillate strongly; for corn, be cautious about shorting near - month contracts and consider going long on far - month contracts; for jujubes, wait and see; for live pigs, short near - month contracts on rallies [25][27][29][31][32][33]. - In the energy and chemical market, the contradiction between supply and demand of crude oil is expected to become more prominent, and oil prices are likely to fall. Fuel oil prices will follow oil prices. Polyolefins may have an emotional rebound in the short term, but the fundamentals are not significantly improved. Rubber is in an oscillation pattern. Methanol is recommended to be treated with an oscillation strategy. Caustic soda is also in an oscillation pattern. Asphalt is expected to oscillate. For the polyester industry chain, consider short - term long positions. LPG is expected to follow crude oil in the short term but may be relatively weaker than crude oil in the future. Pulp can consider going long on far - month 01 contracts if the spot is stable. Logs are expected to be under pressure. Urea is expected to oscillate weakly. Synthetic rubber is recommended to stop losses in the short term and be cautious about chasing up [36][37][38][39][40][41][44][45][46][47][48]. Summary by Directory Macro News - China and the US agreed that President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30th to exchange views on China - US relations and common concerns [4]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, and will end the balance - sheet reduction on December 1st. There are significant differences within the Fed regarding the future path of interest rate cuts [4]. - China's purchase of soybeans from the US was reported, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that China's position on relevant issues is consistent [4]. - The CSRC clarified key measures to promote the reform of the Beijing Stock Exchange and the New Third Board, including improving the issuance and listing mechanism of the Beijing Stock Exchange, activating the "cultivation" function of the New Third Board, etc. The chairman of the Beijing Stock Exchange said that the North Securities 50 ETF will be launched soon, and post - market fixed - price trading will be studied [5]. - As of the end of the third quarter, the scale of ETFs held by Central Huijin Investment and related entities increased by more than 200 billion yuan in a single quarter, reaching about 1.55 trillion yuan, continuing to support the stock market [5]. - Ningquan Asset announced that it will suspend accepting new investors' first - time subscription applications for all its funds from October 30th [5]. - South Korea and the US reached a specific economic and trade agreement. South Korea will invest 200 billion US dollars in cash and 150 billion US dollars in shipbuilding cooperation in a 350 - billion - dollar project. The US will reduce the tariff on South Korean cars from 25% to 15% [5]. - The US Senate passed a bill to terminate the national emergency used by the Trump administration to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, but the House of Representatives may not vote on overturning the tariff until March next year [6]. - The US announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, targeting two major Russian oil companies and their 34 subsidiaries [6]. - It is expected that Russia's retail gold purchases will reach 62.2 tons this year, and Russian people have accumulated 282 tons of gold purchases since the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - The Reserve Bank of India has repatriated nearly 64 tons of gold in the first six months of this fiscal year, and the proportion of domestic gold reserves has almost doubled compared to four years ago [6]. Stock Index Futures - A - shares showed a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.7% at 4016.33 points, and the daily trading volume reaching 2.29 trillion yuan. Consider a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation [8]. Treasury Bond Futures - The implementation of monetary policy is entering a phase of realization, and bonds still have upward momentum. There is a divergence in the Fed's path of interest rate cuts, and the market's expectation of loose monetary policy is increasing [8][9][10]. Black Market - **Screw and Ore**: In the short term, the black market is expected to continue its rebound but with limited space, and maintain a mid - term oscillation pattern. Pay attention to the impact of Sino - US relations and relevant meetings on the market. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is acceptable. Iron ore and other raw material prices are oscillating, and steel prices are expected to have limited rebound space [11]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of double - coking coal may continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. Pay attention to the disturbances from coal mine inspections and downstream molten iron production changes. In the short term, the supply of coking coal may contract, and the high molten iron production supports the price, but the potential negative feedback risk from weakening steel demand may limit the price increase [11][12]. - **Ferroalloys**: For ferrosilicon, the upper limit of the futures price may face strong hedging pressure. For silicomanganese, it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term and control positions [12]. Colored Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: For aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see as the domestic demand is weak. For alumina, short on rallies as the supply surplus pressure is large [17]. - **Zinc**: As of October 27th, the domestic zinc inventory increased. Hold short positions as the Fed's decision will briefly affect the price [18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to strong demand and short - term supply approaching its peak [20][21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to oscillate within a range. The price of polysilicon is supported by the spot price, and the upper limit depends on the implementation of capacity merger policies [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Consider shorting on rebounds with caution as the supply pressure is increasing and the demand is weak. The impact of Sino - US trade relations on the market needs to be further observed [25]. - **Sugar**: Use a short - rolling strategy or wait and see as the global sugar supply is in surplus, and the domestic supply pressure is increasing, but the cost supports the price [27]. - **Eggs**: Wait and see or try shorting lightly on rallies. The egg market is in a process of "capacity reduction", but the supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the increase in egg prices may be limited [29]. - **Apples**: Expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the price changes, storage progress, and the purchasing sentiment of merchants [31]. - **Corn**: Be cautious about shorting near - month contracts and consider going long on far - month contracts. The corn market is facing short - term supply pressure, and pay attention to the sales progress of new grain and the release rhythm of policy wheat [32]. - **Jujubes**: Wait and see as the market price is stable, and pay attention to the price changes after the new season's centralized listing [33]. - **Live Pigs**: Short near - month contracts on rallies. The supply - demand pattern is in a stalemate, and the spot price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to the end - of - month slaughter rhythm of large - scale enterprises [33]. Energy and Chemical Market - **Crude Oil**: The contradiction between supply and demand is expected to become more prominent, and oil prices are likely to fall. The EIA inventory decreased, and the Sino - US negotiation released a positive signal, but the supply is expected to increase, and the demand may be suppressed [36]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow oil prices. The supply - demand structure is loose, and the short - term focus is on the impact of sanctions on Russia's supply [37]. - **Plastic**: Polyolefins may have an emotional rebound in the short term, but the fundamentals are not significantly improved. It is recommended to use a hedging strategy after the rebound [38]. - **Rubber**: In an oscillation pattern. Consider double - selling strategies or short - term long positions on pullbacks [39]. - **Methanol**: Treat with an oscillation strategy. The current situation is weak, but there are potential positive factors such as winter natural gas restrictions. Wait for a rebound driver and then consider a small - scale long position [40]. - **Caustic Soda**: In an oscillation pattern. The supply is in surplus, and the coal price provides some support. Be cautious about the risk of shorting [41]. - **Asphalt**: Expected to oscillate. The price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors, and the demand is in the seasonal peak but gradually approaching the end [42]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Consider short - term long positions as the market sentiment is strong. Pay attention to the results of relevant meetings and the implementation of policies [44]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Expected to follow crude oil in the short term but may be relatively weaker than crude oil in the future. The supply is abundant, and the demand may weaken [45]. - **Pulp**: Consider going long on far - month 01 contracts if the spot is stable. The macro sentiment is improving, and the fundamentals are relatively stable [46]. - **Logs**: Expected to be under pressure. The inventory is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [46]. - **Urea**: Expected to oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the impact of the cost side on the futures price, and the supply - demand situation has deteriorated [46][47]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Stop losses in the short term and be cautious about chasing up. The price is affected by the cost and device maintenance, and pay attention to downstream procurement and macro sentiment [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, there are trend short positions in synthetic rubber, alumina, etc.; oscillating short - biased positions in liquefied petroleum gas, crude oil, etc.; oscillating positions in Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Futures, apple, etc.; oscillating long - biased positions in some products; and trend long positions in none. Based on quantitative indicators, there are short - biased positions in sugar, hot - rolled coils, etc.; oscillating positions in Shanghai silver, palm oil, etc.; and long - biased positions in rebar, asphalt, etc. [2] - For the stock market, A - shares showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes to develop strategic emerging industries, and the easing of Sino - US relations may boost risk appetite. The market expects an increase in monetary policy in the fourth quarter, and it is advisable to consider a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. [8] - For the bond market, as the implementation of increased monetary policy is approaching, bonds still have upward momentum. [9] - For the black market, steel and ore may continue to rebound in the short term but with limited space, and remain oscillating in the medium term; coking coal and coke may run strongly in the short term but are restricted by potential negative feedback risks; ferroalloys are still recommended to be short - biased on rallies in the medium term. [10][11][12] - For the non - ferrous and new materials market, it is advisable to wait and see for aluminum, short on rallies for alumina, hold short positions for zinc, and expect lithium carbonate to run strongly in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon will run in a narrow range. [16][18][19] - For the agricultural products market, it is advisable to short on rallies for cotton, short - roll or wait and see for sugar, operate in an oscillating manner for eggs, expect apples to run strongly, be short - biased for near - term corn contracts and long - biased for far - term contracts, wait and see for jujubes, and short near - term contracts for live pigs. [22][24][25][27][29][30] - For the energy and chemical market, crude oil is likely to fall, fuel oil and asphalt will follow oil prices, plastics will run weakly, rubber will oscillate, methanol is recommended to be long - biased in small amounts after a rebound drive appears, caustic soda will be treated with an oscillating mindset, the polyester industry chain can be short - term long - biased, LPG may weaken relative to crude oil, paper pulp can be long - biased on dips, logs will be under pressure, urea will run weakly, and synthetic rubber will be short - biased in the short term. [32][33][34][37][41][43] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro News - The full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal is released, aiming for economic growth in a reasonable range, promoting the development of strategic emerging industries, and breaking through key core technologies. China and ASEAN sign the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol. There will be a Sino - EU talk on rare earths. China will expand financial opening - up. The US Senate fails to pass a bill to end the government shutdown. Japan plans to invest $550 billion in the US. ADP will launch weekly employment data. The Bank of Korea may buy gold. [4][5][6] Stock Index Futures - A - shares rise and then fall. The "15th Five - Year Plan" promotes the development of emerging industries. Sino - US talks may boost risk appetite. The market expects an increase in monetary policy in the fourth quarter. It is advisable to consider a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. [8] Treasury Bond Futures - After the tax period, the capital market eases. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Bonds still have upward momentum. [9] Steel and Ore - Policy is favorable to market sentiment. In the short term, pay attention to Sino - US relations; in the medium term, focus on the Central Political Bureau Meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for coils is okay. Iron - making output remains high, and steel mills' profits are low. Steel prices may rebound in the short term but with limited space and remain oscillating in the medium term. [10] Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may run strongly in the short term, but are affected by mine inspections and downstream iron - making output. Supply may shrink in the short term, and demand supports prices, but potential negative feedback risks from weakening steel demand and shrinking steel mill profits will restrict the rebound height. [11] Ferroalloys - The over - supply situation is difficult to reverse in the medium term. It is recommended to be short - biased on rallies. The volatility is low, and it may run in a narrow range. [12] Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash oscillates, and glass is relatively strong. It is advisable to wait and see. Soda ash supply returns to a high level, and new capacity is yet to be put into production. Glass prices are stable, and mid - stream inventory needs to be digested. [14] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - For aluminum, it is advisable to wait and see as it may follow the upward trend. For alumina, short on rallies due to over - supply. For zinc, hold short positions as domestic inventory increases. Lithium carbonate will run strongly in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon will run in a narrow range. [16][18][19] Agricultural Products - For cotton, short on rallies due to increasing supply and weak demand. For sugar, short - roll or wait and see because of global over - supply. For eggs, operate in an oscillating manner as the "de - capacity" process starts but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. Apples will run strongly. For corn, be short - biased for near - term contracts and long - biased for far - term contracts. Wait and see for jujubes. For live pigs, short near - term contracts as supply and demand are in a stalemate. [22][24][25][27][29][30] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is likely to fall due to over - supply. Fuel oil and asphalt will follow oil prices. Plastics will run weakly. Rubber will oscillate. Methanol is recommended to be long - biased in small amounts after a rebound drive appears. Caustic soda will be treated with an oscillating mindset. The polyester industry chain can be short - term long - biased. LPG may weaken relative to crude oil. Paper pulp can be long - biased on dips. Logs will be under pressure. Urea will run weakly. Synthetic rubber will be short - biased in the short term. [32][33][34][37][41][43]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market may see an increase in risk appetite due to Sino - US talks, and the trading volume has rebounded. The monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the fourth quarter. [13][14] - The prices of various commodities show different trends. For example, some are expected to be in a narrow - range shock, some are expected to be weak, and some are expected to be strong in the short - term. The trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations. [17][19][24] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - At the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference, central bank governor Pan Gongsheng, Financial Regulatory Administration director Li Yunze, and CSRC chairman Wu Qing made important statements. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, resume Treasury bond trading in the open market, and strengthen macro - prudential management. [8] - In September, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 21.6% year - on - year, with faster growth in high - tech and equipment manufacturing, and significant acceleration in the profits of private and foreign - funded enterprises. [8] - The CSRC issued the "Work Plan for Optimizing the Qualified Foreign Investor System" and the "Several Opinions on Strengthening the Protection of Small and Medium - Sized Investors in the Capital Market", which are expected to enhance the attractiveness of foreign capital and improve the protection of investors. [9] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt the strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. The A - share market rose on Monday, and Sino - US talks may boost risk appetite. The trading volume has rebounded, and the monetary policy is expected to be loosened. [13] Treasury Bond Futures - The monetary policy is expected to be further loosened, and bonds still have upward momentum. Although the bond market was suppressed in the morning due to the increase in risk appetite, the central bank's decision to restart bond - buying led to a significant decline in bond yields. [15] Black Steel and Iron Ore - In the short - term, the market may rebound slightly, but the space is limited. In the medium - term, it will maintain a volatile trend. Pay attention to Sino - US relations and policies at the end of the year. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is fair. The supply of molten iron remains high, and the prices of raw materials are volatile. [17] Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to be volatile and strong in the short - term. Pay attention to production inspections at coal mines and changes in molten iron output. The supply may shrink in the short - term, and the demand is supported, but the weakening demand for steel in the off - season may limit the upward space. [19] Ferroalloys - The over - supply situation of ferroalloys is difficult to reverse in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies. The prices of ferroalloys were affected by the strong performance of the black market and macro - sentiment, and the silicon iron price was more volatile due to the decline in thermal coal prices. [20][21] Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, short - term short positions can take profits. For glass, it is recommended to wait and see. The inventory of soda ash has decreased slightly, and the supply has declined. The new capacity of glass needs time to be released, and the mid - stream inventory is high. [22] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - For aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see. The market sentiment is boosted by factors such as interest rate cuts and Sino - US talks, but the domestic market may follow the upward trend weakly. For alumina, it is recommended to short on rallies as the supply surplus pressure is large. [24] Zinc - Hold short positions. The domestic zinc inventory has increased, and the spot trading is light. The import of refined zinc has decreased significantly. The domestic and international market logics are different, and the zinc price has shown a downward resonance since October. [25] Lithium Carbonate - It will be in a strong and volatile state in the short - term. The demand is strong, and the supply is close to the peak. The current supply - demand situation drives the price upward. [26] Industrial Silicon - It will fluctuate weakly in a range. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Although there is a pressure on supply in reality, the supply and demand are in a loose balance considering the reduction in production in the southwest during the dry season. [27][29] Polysilicon - It will continue to fluctuate narrowly in a range. The spot price supports the lower limit, and the upper limit depends on the implementation of capacity merger policies. There is no strong driving force for upward or downward movement. [30] Agricultural Products Cotton - Adopt the strategy of shorting on rallies with caution. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. Although Sino - US trade relations may bring some fluctuations, the actual demand change needs further observation. [32] Sugar - Short positions can be rolled or wait and see. The global sugar market is in surplus, and the long - term demand is worrying. The domestic supply pressure is gradually increasing, but the cost supports the price. [34] Eggs - Trade according to the volatile strategy. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short in the short - term. The egg - laying hen industry is in the process of capacity reduction, and the futures are strong, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the increase in spot prices may be limited. [37] Apples - The price will fluctuate strongly. The prices in the western producing areas are firm, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants has increased. Pay attention to the price changes, storage progress, and purchasing sentiment of merchants. [39] Corn - Be cautious and short on near - month contracts, and consider going long on far - month contracts. The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure in the northeast is still accumulating. The possible release of policy wheat may have a substitution impact on corn. [40] Red Dates - Wait and see. The market price is stable, but the opening price is expected to decline, leading to a significant decline in the futures price. [41] Pigs - Wait and see in the short - term. The supply - demand situation is deadlocked, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the slaughter rhythm of large - scale enterprises at the end of the month. [41] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The supply - demand contradiction of crude oil is expected to become more prominent, and the oil price is likely to fall. Although the price has rebounded due to geopolitical conflicts and Sino - US macro - expectations, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand may be suppressed. [43] Fuel Oil - The price will follow the oil price. The supply - demand structure of fuel oil is loose, and the short - term focus is on the impact of sanctions on Russia's supply. [44] Plastics - It will fluctuate weakly. The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the upstream profit has slightly recovered after the recent rebound, with limited upward momentum. [45] Rubber - There is no obvious trend, and it is mainly in a shock state. Short - term double - selling strategies or short - term long - buying on pullbacks can be considered. [47] Methanol - Adopt a volatile strategy and wait for the opportunity to go long in small positions after the rebound driver appears. The market is in a game around factors such as the arrival of Iranian goods, and the supply pressure is large, but there are also some positive factors. [48] Caustic Soda - Adopt a volatile strategy. Although the spot price is weak, there is cost support, and the weak performance of alumina suppresses the futures price. [49] Asphalt - The price trend is strong. The oil price has no main - line logic, and the later focus is on the concern about raw materials caused by the US military threat to Venezuela. The current demand is in the peak season, and the inventory is decreasing at a normal rate. [50] Printing Paper - It is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply may be excessive due to the resumption of production by Chenming during the off - season. In the short - term, the fundamental situation has no obvious change, and some option strategies can be considered. [52] Polyester Industry Chain - Consider going long in small positions on dips in the short - term. The market sentiment has been boosted by the improvement of the macro - environment and news. The supply - demand situations of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. have different changes. [53] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The short - term trend is strong, but the supply is abundant. The demand for the blending oil market may weaken, and the profit of PDH has recovered. The Sino - US trade negotiation may affect the price. [54] Pulp - Observe the inventory reduction at ports and spot trading. If the spot price is stable, long positions can be established in the far - month 01 contract in small positions. [55] Logs - Be cautious when shorting. After the rebound, short positions can be established in small positions. The import cost may decrease, the supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is weakening. [56] Urea - Adopt a weakly volatile strategy. Pay attention to the impact of the cost side on the futures. The supply - demand situation has deteriorated compared with the previous period. [56] Synthetic Rubber - The short - term trend is weak. Be cautious when shorting on sharp drops, and consider selling call options on rebounds. [57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market shows a complex situation with supply and demand factors interacting. Supply - side factors include changes in domestic production and imports, while demand - side factors involve downstream production and consumption. The market is also affected by inventory levels, price trends, and cost - profit relationships. In the short - term, the market is expected to remain volatile, and long - term trends are influenced by factors such as future supply projections and terminal demand capabilities [6][8][10] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - Domestic production: In the week of 2025/10/24, domestic broadleaf pulp production was 23.50 million tons, up 0.30 million tons from the previous week, and chemimechanical pulp production was 23.60 million tons, up 0.80 million tons. Huanggang Chenming's softwood pulp line planned a one - month shutdown starting on September 29, with an annual capacity of 550,000 tons and an expected impact of 45,000 tons [6][7] - Imports: In September 2025, China's pulp imports were 2.952 billion tons, a 11.3% month - on - month increase and a 10.3% year - on - year increase. The cumulative imports for the year were 27.061 billion tons, a 5.6% year - on - year increase. Softwood pulp imports were 691,000 tons, and broadleaf pulp imports were 1.356 billion tons. Overseas shipments of softwood and broadleaf pulp showed different trends, with softwood shipments expected to be stable to slightly lower in October and broadleaf shipments expected to remain sufficient in November [7] 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - Demand: Downstream production of various paper products showed a slight increase in the week of 2025/10/23 compared to the previous week. The total pulp demand was 902,600 tons, a 25,800 - ton increase. New production capacities were being put into operation, but terminal demand was limited, resulting in stable production but decreasing operating rates [8] - Inventory: Port inventories were in a state of oscillating accumulation, with Qingdao Port's inventory at 1.39 billion tons, down 12,000 tons from the previous week. Warehouse receipt inventories were in a state of slightly decreasing, suppressing the 11 and 12 contracts. Downstream finished - product inventories were in a state of oscillating accumulation [8] 1.3 Price and Spread - Prices: Foreign offers for softwood pulp decreased, while spot prices showed a polarization between softwood and broadleaf, with broadleaf being relatively firm and softwood being relatively weak. Futures prices were in a state of oscillation, with the 01 contract having less pressure due to fewer new warehouse receipts, but the fundamentals remained weak [10] - Spreads: The spread between softwood and broadleaf pulp remained high and stable, and the futures spread widened as some short - positions moved to the far - month 01 contract. The basis was stable [10] 1.4 Cost and Profit - Costs: Domestic pulp costs were stable, and imported pulp costs had different trends. Foreign offers were rising, causing the profit margin of imported pulp to shrink [12] - Profits: Domestic pulp profits were expected to slightly recover, and imported pulp profits were stable. The profits of finished paper products were generally stable [12] 1.5 Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, it is recommended to observe whether port de - stocking continues and the situation of spot transactions. If the spot is stable, long positions in the far - month 01 contract can be appropriately established, but risk prevention is necessary. If the warehouse receipt problem of the 11 contract is not resolved, short positions in the 11 contract can be considered [15] Part 2: Pulp Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows the supply, demand, and inventory data of pulp from January 2024 to November 2025. Supply includes imports and domestic production, demand includes pulp consumption and other needs, and inventory includes warehouse receipt inventory and port inventory. The data shows the cumulative and year - on - year changes of each item, and the supply - demand gap and inventory - consumption ratio are also calculated [17] Part 3: Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - No detailed data or analysis provided in the content 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - side - Pulp imports: The report provides data on the imports of various types of pulp, including softwood pulp, broadleaf pulp, chemimechanical pulp, and wood chips, from 2022 to 2025, showing the monthly and cumulative import volumes and year - on - year changes [33][37][41] - Seasonal and cumulative imports: The seasonal and cumulative import data of softwood pulp from different countries are presented, as well as the import data of chemimechanical pulp, unbleached pulp, and wood chips [45][50][62] 3.2.2 Demand - side - Pulp demand: The report shows the demand for pulp in the downstream paper products industry, including the production of various paper products and the total pulp demand [8] - Finished paper products: The production, import, export, and demand of various finished paper products such as toilet paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard are analyzed, and the planned production capacity and production progress of some products are also mentioned [82][96][114] 3.2.3 Inventory - side - Total pulp inventory: The total pulp inventory, including warehouse receipt inventory and port inventory, is presented, showing the weekly data from 2022 to 2025 [142] - Inventory by port: The weekly inventory data of pulp in different ports such as Qingdao Port, Tianjin Port, Changshu Port, and Gaolan Port from 2022 to 2025 are provided [150] Part 4: Cost and Profit - Pulp import cost and profit: The cost and profit of imported pulp are analyzed, with the cost being affected by foreign offers and the profit margin shrinking [162] - Domestic pulp production cost and profit: The production cost and profit of domestic pulp are analyzed, with the profit expected to slightly recover [165] Part 5: Pulp Price and Spread Analysis 5.1 Pulp Foreign Offers - The seasonal price data of various types of pulp such as Silver Star, Russian Needle, and Goldfish from 2022 to 2025 are presented [174] 5.2 Price Spread - The seasonal spread data between different types of pulp such as Silver Star - Goldfish, Russian Needle - Goldfish, and Silver Star - Russian Needle from 2022 to 2025 are presented [177] 5.3 Basis - The basis data between Silver Star, Russian Needle, and the main contract from 2022 to 2025 are presented [180] 5.4 SP Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread - No detailed data or analysis provided in the content