1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pulp supply is expected to increase as there are no short - term shutdown and maintenance plans from pulp mills, and Chenming is operating at full capacity, with the output of broad - leaf pulp expected to rise gradually. Although the overseas pulp shipment volume did not significantly shrink from June to August, the arrival volume in China decreased by about 200,000 tons in August, and some shipments may arrive in September [7][8]. - The downstream pulp demand is stable. New production capacities are being put into operation, but the terminal demand is limited, resulting in stable output, gradually decreasing operating rates, and fluctuating inventories. The demand for household paper and white cardboard is entering the peak season, but the demand has not yet picked up [9][10]. - The pulp price shows a fluctuating and weak trend. The spot price is supported, but the futures price is affected by factors such as capital and old warehouse receipts, showing a fluctuating and weak trend. The prices of household paper and white cardboard are expected to rise as they enter the peak season, while the price of offset paper continues to decline during the off - season [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - **Domestic Production**: The output of domestic broad - leaf pulp and chemi - mechanical pulp increased in the week of September 19, 2025. There are no short - term shutdown and maintenance plans from pulp mills, and the output of broad - leaf pulp is expected to rise [7][8]. - **Imports**: In August 2025, China's pulp import volume was 2.653 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 24.108 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The overseas shipment volume from June to August did not significantly shrink, but the arrival volume in China decreased in August, and some shipments may arrive in September [8]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - **Demand**: The downstream production of household paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard was stable this week. The new production capacities are being put into operation, but the terminal demand is limited, resulting in stable output, gradually decreasing operating rates, and fluctuating inventories. The demand for household paper and white cardboard is entering the peak season, but the demand has not yet picked up [9][10]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory is expected to show a fluctuating and accumulating trend as the arrival volume increases and the demand remains stable. The warehouse receipt inventory is stable and shows a slight decreasing trend. The low price has led to insufficient new warehouse receipt registrations, and the pressure on old warehouse receipts is acceptable. The downstream inventory tends to fluctuate and accumulate [10]. 1.3 Price and Spread - **Prices**: The overseas offer prices of silver star and goldfish remained unchanged this week, while the spot prices of some pulp varieties increased slightly. The futures price shows a fluctuating and weak trend, affected by factors such as capital and old warehouse receipts. The prices of household paper and white cardboard are expected to rise as they enter the peak season, while the price of offset paper continues to decline during the off - season [11][12]. - **Spreads**: The needle - broad spread is expected to narrow, but the range is still limited. The futures spread shows a weakening trend, and the basis has strengthened this week [12]. 1.4 Strategy Recommendation - The spot offer price of the industrial chain is stable. From the cancellation volume of warehouse receipts in the 09 contract, the actual digestion of old warehouse receipts is limited, and the intention to resell is strong. At the same time, the macro and market sentiment is poor, and the 11 contract is under pressure and increasing positions. In the short term, it is recommended to observe whether the port inventory reduction continues and the spot transaction situation [16]. Part 2: Pulp Balance Sheet - The report provides a detailed pulp balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025, including supply (imports, domestic production), demand (pulp consumption, other demand), and inventory (warehouse receipt inventory, port inventory) data, as well as their year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes [19]. Part 3: Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - Global Pulp Shipment Volume**: No specific data and analysis are provided in the content. - **Demand and Inventory - European Apparent Demand and Inventory**: No specific data and analysis are provided in the content. 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: - **Pulp Imports**: The report provides data on China's pulp imports from 2022 to 2025, including the import volume and cumulative import volume of bleached softwood pulp, bleached hardwood pulp, chemi - mechanical pulp, and other varieties, as well as their year - on - year changes [39][44][49]. - **Pulp Imports by Country**: The report provides data on the import volume and cumulative import volume of bleached softwood pulp from different countries (Russia, Chile, Canada, etc.) from 2022 to 2025, as well as their year - on - year changes [52][64][69]. - **Import of Wood Chips**: The report provides data on the import volume and cumulative import volume of coniferous and broad - leaf wood chips from 2022 to 2025, as well as their year - on - year changes [82][83][84]. - **Demand - side**: - **Pulp Apparent Demand**: No specific data and analysis are provided in the content. - **Analysis of Downstream Finished Paper**: The report provides information on the production, supply, demand, and inventory of downstream finished paper (household paper, offset paper, coated paper, white cardboard), as well as the planned production capacity and production time of new projects [93][109]. - **Inventory - side**: - **Total Pulp Inventory**: The report provides data on China's total pulp inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and port inventory from 2022 to 2025 [156][157][158]. - **Inventory by Port**: The report provides data on the weekly inventory of pulp in different ports (Qingdao Port, Tianjin Port, Changshu Port, etc.) from 2022 to 2025 [163][164][166]. Part 4: Cost and Profit - **Pulp Import Cost and Profit**: The report provides data on the import cost and profit of pulp from 2022 to 2025 [173]. - **Domestic Pulp Production Cost and Profit**: The report provides data on the production cost and profit of domestic pulp from 2022 to 2025 [176]. Part 5: Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - **Pulp Overseas Offer Prices**: The report provides the seasonal price data of silver star, Russian needle, goldfish, etc. from 2022 to 2025 [181][186][187]. - **Price Spreads**: The report provides the seasonal spread data of silver star - goldfish, Russian needle - goldfish, etc. from 2022 to 2025 [189][190]. - **Basis**: The report provides the basis data of silver star - main contract, Russian needle - main contract from 2022 to 2025 [192][193][196]. - **SP Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread**: The report provides the seasonal chart and inter - month spread data of the SP main contract from 2022 to 2025 [200].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific investment suggestions for various sectors and commodities: - **Macro Finance**: Consider buying index futures on dips and adopting a shock - trading strategy; for bond futures, consider steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end yield curves in the medium - to - long term and buying bonds on dips [12][13]. - **Black Metals**: For steel, it is recommended to wait and see; hold a small short position in iron ore; expect coking coal and coke prices to fluctuate upward in the short term; for ferroalloys, take a short - selling approach on rebounds in the medium - to - long term; for soda ash, maintain a short - selling strategy on rallies, and for glass, wait and see [16][18][19]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: For aluminum, wait and see in the short term and consider buying on dips later; for alumina, sell on rallies; for zinc, expect prices to weaken; for lithium carbonate, it will fluctuate widely in the short term; for industrial silicon, test long positions on dips in the far - month contracts, and for polysilicon, trade within a wide range [23][24][25]. - **Agricultural Products**: For cotton, sell on rallies; for sugar, cover short positions opportunistically; for eggs, sell on rallies; for apples, wait and see; for corn, wait and see and focus on the new grain listing rhythm; for red dates, sell on rallies; for live pigs, take a short - selling approach on rallies in the near - month contracts [31][33][36]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: For crude oil, consider short - selling on rallies; for fuel oil, its price will follow oil price fluctuations; for plastics, expect a slightly stronger shock in the short term and then a short - selling strategy; for rubber, hold positions cautiously; for methanol, trade with a shock strategy; for asphalt, follow oil prices; for the polyester industry chain, test long positions in the short term but expect a weak trend in the long term; for LPG, maintain a short - selling view in the long term [42][44][47]. - **Forestry Products**: For offset printing paper, test long positions or sell put options near the factory production cost line; for pulp, observe port de - stocking and spot trading; for logs, test long positions on dips if the price - holding is effective; for synthetic rubber, hold positions cautiously [52][53][54]. 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes the macro - economic situation, including the Fed's interest rate cut, China's service consumption policies, and the release of relevant industrial standards. It also provides investment strategies and market outlooks for different sectors and commodities based on supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and market sentiment [8][9][16]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, with over 90% probability of another cut in October. Employment risks have increased, and inflation is slightly high [8]. - China will select about 50 pilot cities for new consumption scenarios, introduce relevant policies, promote AI application, and use monetary policy tools to boost consumption. During the consumption month, over 25,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities will be held, and over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies will be issued [8]. - Alibaba's self - developed AI chip was featured on CCTV, with some parameters comparable to NVIDIA's H20 chip [9]. - New national standards for polysilicon energy consumption will be implemented, reducing effective domestic polysilicon capacity by 16.4% compared to the end of 2024 [9]. - A symposium on pig production capacity regulation was held, emphasizing the control of sow capacity [9]. - From September 1 - 14, national passenger car retail sales decreased by 4% year - on - year, while new energy vehicle sales increased by 6%, with a penetration rate of 59.8% [10]. - Huawei released a report, predicting that AGI will be the most transformative force in the next decade, and the total computing power will increase by 100,000 times [10]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3876.34, with A - share trading volume increasing to 2.4 trillion yuan. The market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [12]. Bond Futures - The tax - period liquidity is tight, and it is recommended to steepen the yield curve in the medium - to - long term and buy bonds on dips, expecting the central bank to restart bond purchases in September and cut interest rates by 10bp in the fourth quarter [13][14]. Black Metals Steel and Iron Ore - Policy impact on supply is limited. The peak season may not bring expected demand, and steel is expected to be slightly strong in the short term and volatile later. Hold a small short position in iron ore [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may fluctuate upward in the short term, and attention should be paid to production progress and inventory levels [18]. Ferroalloys - Take a short - selling approach on rebounds in the medium - to - long term, not chasing short positions [19]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, sell on rallies; for glass, wait and see. Soda ash supply is high, and glass supply may increase slightly [20][21]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - For aluminum, wait and see in the short term and buy on dips later; for alumina, sell on rallies due to supply pressure [23]. Zinc - Overseas macro - positive expectations have cooled, and zinc prices are expected to weaken due to increased supply and weak demand [24]. Lithium Carbonate - It is in a state of strong reality and weak expectation, with short - term price support from inventory reduction and wide - range fluctuations [25]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range, and test long positions on dips in the far - month contracts. Polysilicon will have a wide - range shock, with policy progress driving the price [27]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Sell on rallies due to supply pressure and weak demand. New cotton listing will increase supply, and downstream demand is poor [31]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market is bearish, and it is recommended to cover short positions opportunistically due to abundant supply [33]. Eggs - The egg supply is high, and it is recommended to sell on rallies as the peak season ends [36]. Apples - Wait and see as the new - season opening price is expected to be high, and the market is affected by multiple factors [37]. Corn - Wait and see and focus on the new grain listing rhythm, with prices showing a regional differentiation [38]. Red Dates - Sell on rallies, with stable prices in the production area and weak sales in the sales area [39]. Live Pigs - The supply is strong and demand is weak, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies in the near - month contracts [39]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Consider short - selling on rallies as the market may shift to a supply - surplus situation, and pay attention to OPEC+ and geopolitical factors [42]. Fuel Oil - Its price will follow oil price fluctuations, with a complex market situation and supply - demand issues [42]. Plastics - Expect a slightly stronger shock in the short term and then a short - selling strategy due to supply pressure and market sentiment [44]. Rubber - Hold positions cautiously, with cost support weakening and demand remaining stable [46]. Methanol - Trade with a shock strategy, as port inventory is high, but there may be supply disruptions [47]. Asphalt - Follow oil prices, with seasonal demand increasing and inventory decreasing [48]. Polyester Industry Chain - Test long positions in the short term but expect a weak trend in the long term due to supply - demand pressure [49]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - It is in a supply - surplus situation, and maintain a short - selling view in the long term, with short - term price support from peak - season stocking [50][51]. Forestry Products Offset Printing Paper - Test long positions or sell put options near the factory production cost line, with stable fundamentals [52]. Pulp - Observe port de - stocking and spot trading, with stable production data [53]. Logs - Test long positions on dips if the price - holding is effective, with stable downstream demand [54]. Synthetic Rubber - Hold positions cautiously, with prices affected by macro factors and supply - demand [55].

Report Title - "LPG Weekly Report: Peak Season Stockpiling Arrives, LPG Strengthens Relatively" [1] Report Date - September 14, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - LPG has shown strong recent performance, with the international market entering the peak - season stockpiling phase, and its price is relatively firm compared to crude oil [5]. - OPEC+ is further increasing crude oil production. Although geopolitical disturbances between the US and Venezuela, the US and Iran, and the US and Russia may offset the increase to some extent, it does not change the fact that LPG supply remains abundant [5]. - In the demand side, the peak season of the blending market is coming to an end, and the operating rate is difficult to maintain at a high level, so the chemical demand may weaken. However, the profit of PDH has been significantly repaired, which may support the subsequent operating rate [5]. - Overall, LPG supply is very abundant. The CP price is relatively strong in the short - term due to peak - season stockpiling, but will follow the oil price in the long - term. With high supply and the expectation that demand is unlikely to strengthen beyond expectations, the upside potential of LPG is limited, and a bearish view is maintained in the long - term [5]. Key Strategy Recommendation - Futures strategy: Try shorting at high prices [6] Summary by Directory PART 01: LPG Market Review - **Market Trend**: The domestic LPG market showed a volatile trend. In the civil gas market, the supply of domestic gas increased slightly, with limited negative impact on the market. In Shandong, prices declined due to the concentrated arrival of imported gas. The combustion demand was still weak, and downstream customers were cautious about high prices while digesting inventory, leading to price drops in some enterprises in Central China. In other regions, the supply - demand situation was good, and prices rose slightly. In the olefin C4 market, despite the increase in international crude oil prices, the poor terminal oil product demand led to a decline in component raw material prices. Downstream device profits continued to be in the red, and with decreased chemical demand and increased supply, the relaxed supply - demand situation pressured the market [5]. - **CP Price**: The expected average price of propane CP is $545 per ton, up $14 per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.64%. The expected average price of butane CP is $525 per ton, up $14 per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.74% [5]. PART 02: LPG Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Domestic**: Data on the operating rate of major refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, comprehensive refining profit of major refineries, and domestic LPG production volume are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [11]. - **Supply - Import**: Data on LPG arrival volume in China, import trade profit margin in South China, monthly total import volume in China, import volume from different countries, and shipping freight rates from the Arabian Gulf region and the US Gulf Coast to the Far East are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [14][15][17][19] - **Inventory**: Data on LPG port inventory in China, refinery storage capacity ratio in China, port storage capacity ratio in China, factory - level inventory in China, and sales - to - production ratios in South China, East China, and Shandong are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [22][24] - **Demand - PDH**: Data on the operating rate of PDH plants in China, production profit margin of PDH in China, production profit margin of MTBE's isomerization etherification in Shandong, capacity utilization rate of MTBE export factories in China, capacity utilization rate of alkylated oil in China, and production profit margin of alkylated oil in Shandong are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [27][29][31] PART 03: LPG - Related Price Data - **Import Cost**: Data on CP contract prices of propane and butane, CP crude oil price trends, and spot prices of propane (frozen cargo) in South China are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [36] - **Spot**: Data on ex - factory prices of civil LPG from Guangzhou Petrochemical, Shanghai Gaoqiao, and Jinan Refinery are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [39][40] PART 04: LPG Other Data - **LPG Spread**: Data on the basis of the LPG main contract and the spread between the first - and second - month contracts are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [45] - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the registered warehouse receipts of major LPG delivery warehouses are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [47]

市场情绪转弱，盘面继续走弱 中泰期货聚乙烯产业链周报 2025年9月14日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 基差及价差 2 聚乙烯产业情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 聚乙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 1、聚乙烯综述 | | | 上 | 周 | 本 | 周 | | 周环比 | | 下 | 周 | 下下周 | | 综 述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产 量 （万吨） | 国产量 检修损失量 | 63 . | 25 | 61 . | 28 | ...

供需压力仍大，继续偏弱震荡 中泰期货聚丙烯产业链周报 2025年9月14日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 聚丙烯基差价差 2 聚丙烯供需情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 聚丙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 1、聚丙烯综述 | | | 上 | 周 | 本 | 周 | | 周环比 | | 下 | 周 | 下下周 | | | 综 述 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产 量 | 国产量 | 81 . | 40 | 78 . ...

港口持续累库，甲醇偏弱震荡 中泰期货甲醇产业链周报 2025年9月14日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 现货市场 4 行情预期 3 产业链利润 2 基差价差 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 逻辑观点 近期甲醇基本面仍然偏弱，虽然内地荣信一期甲醇装置停车，港口下游MTO兴兴开车等利多因素兑现， 但盘面仍受至于偏高的库存，价格表现持续偏弱。 我们认为甲醇基本面环比有好转预期，但自身供应压力还是比较大，下游MTO开车以后能否有效去库 是比较重要的关键点。长期来看甲醇可能仍需要等待买入时机，我们建议震荡偏弱思路对待，前期空单考虑 离场，多单建议等待更低价位或者驱动明确。 单边策略：震荡偏弱思路，前期空单离场。多单建议等待更低价位或者驱动明确。 对冲策略：观望。 风险因素：地缘政治局势突变导致伊朗甲醇出口受阻 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern in the pig market remains supply - strong and demand - weak, and the spot price lacks a basis for a significant rebound. It is expected that the spot price will mainly fluctuate at a low level. The slowdown in the market supply rhythm has limited impact on price improvement. Although the decline in the spot price has narrowed, September is still a stage with relatively large theoretical出栏 pressure. The near - month futures contracts should be operated with a short - selling strategy on rallies [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Overview and Market Views - **Price Indicators**: The national average price of standard pigs this week was 13.26 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46 yuan/kg and a decline of 3.35%. The average price of standard pigs in different regions showed differentiation, with the lowest in Guangxi at 12.43 yuan/kg. The price of piglets continued to decline rapidly, with the national average price falling below 300 yuan/head. The price of sows decreased slightly, and the price of white - striped pigs also declined, with a deeper decline than that of live pigs, and the price difference between live pigs and white - striped pigs narrowed [4]. - **Capacity Indicators**: The official inventory of reproductive sows in July was 40420,000 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 heads. The indicators of the average number of healthy piglets per litter and the fattening survival rate remained stable. The inventory of commercial pigs continued to increase, and the planned monthly出栏 volume of major institutions in September showed an upward trend. The theoretical出栏 volume from September to December is expected to increase month - by - month, indicating a relatively large supply pressure [4]. - **Demand Indicators**: The sample slaughter volume continued to increase, and the slaughter start - up rate rose, indicating sufficient market supply. The demand improvement in September was uneven, and attention should be paid to the impact of the pre - holiday stocking demand at the end of the month on the consumer market [5]. - **Cost and Profit Indicators**: The continuous decline in the spot price led to a reduction in the profits of the breeding end, especially the mode of purchasing piglets was in deep losses. The ratio of pig price to grain price was below 6 for two consecutive weeks, and there were high calls for the government to purchase and store pigs to support the price. The Ministry of Commerce's anti - dumping measures against imported pork from the EU had a relatively large impact on the import market, but it was difficult to reverse the supply - demand fundamentals [5]. - **Futures Market Indicators**: The spot price continued to decline, the near - month futures contracts followed the spot price downwards, and the valuation of the far - month contracts was re - structured [5]. 3.2 Market Price Trends - The report presents the historical price trends of standard pigs, white - striped pigs, piglets, and sows from 2022 to 2025 through charts, showing the price fluctuations in different years and months [9]. 3.3 Pig Market Balance Sheet - From March to May, the supply - demand gap was the same as the previous year; from June to August, the supply - demand gap widened rapidly and was higher than the previous year [13]. 3.4 Capacity and Supply Data - **Sow Inventory**: The official inventory of reproductive sows and the sample inventory data of Steel Union showed a slight decline. The total elimination volume of reproductive sows and the elimination volume of different subjects were also presented, and the birth number, sales volume of piglets, and the sales volume of piglet feed and fattening feed were also included [16][22]. - **Litter Efficiency**: The report shows the historical data of breeding farrowing rate, average number of healthy piglets per litter, fattening survival rate, and survival rate of piglets from 2020 to 2025. The PSY of 16 listed pig - raising enterprises has been increasing year by year, which is an important reason for the continuous over - expectation of piglet supply [32][34]. - **Commercial Pig Inventory and出栏**: The inventory of commercial pigs continued to increase, and the planned出栏 volume of major institutions in September showed an upward trend. The report also presented the inventory structure of different weights,出栏 weight, and price differences between standard and fat pigs [4][36]. 3.5 Slaughter Volume and Market Demand - **Slaughter Situation**: The fresh - selling rate, daily slaughter volume, capacity utilization rate, and start - up rate of slaughter enterprises from 2021 to 2025 were presented. In July 2025, the slaughter volume of large - scale designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. From January to July 2025, the slaughter volume was 215.21 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 16.6% [57][58]. - **Market Supply**: The report shows the historical data of the wholesale volume of white - striped pigs in Xinfadi Market, the arrival volume of white - striped pigs in Shanghai Western Suburb Market and Nanhuanqiao Market, and the price trends of beef, mutton, chicken, and fish from 2021 to 2025 [59][68]. 3.6 Breeding Costs and Industrial Profits - The report presents the historical trends of profits from purchasing piglets and self - breeding and self - raising, the price of fattening feed, the ratio of pig price to grain price, and the current and expected breeding costs of different breeding modes from 2021 to 2025 [72][80]. 3.7 Futures Market Situation - **Futures Contract Trends**: The report shows the price trends of different futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11) from 2022 to 2026 [94]. - **Basis Trends**: The basis trends of different futures contracts from 2023 to 2026 were presented [104]. - **Contract Spread Trends**: The spread trends between different futures contracts from 2022 to 2026 were presented [113].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the PVC industry, this week's production volume slightly increased, but the actual volume was less than expected. Next week, production is expected to decrease due to more device overhauls. The apparent demand this week was higher than expected, and it is expected to remain stable next week. The inventory showed a mixed trend, with the old - sample inventory decreasing and the new - sample inventory increasing. The overall comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry was in a relatively strong state but is expected to weaken later. The upstream is mainly focused on stable production, the downstream demand is weak, and the export order volume improved slightly this week [6][9][11]. - For the caustic soda industry, this week's production volume decreased slightly, but it remained at a high level and is expected to continue to increase. The apparent demand was in line with expectations and is expected to remain stable next week. The national inventory decreased slightly and may continue to decline. The comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry in Shandong showed a mixed trend, with the profit of external - sales liquid - chlorine devices improving and the comprehensive profit of PVC - supporting enterprises weakening [112][115]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC Market 3.1.1 Production - This week's total PVC production was 47.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.69 million tons. The ethylene - based production was 13.95 million tons, an increase of 0.55 million tons, and the calcium - carbide - based production was 33.93 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons. Next week, the total production is expected to be 44.87 million tons, mainly due to more device overhauls [6]. 3.1.2 Import and Export - The weekly average import volume remained stable at 1.50 million tons, and the weekly average export volume was 5.75 million tons. The export order volume increased slightly this week, and the export volume in July was 33.06 million tons, 10% higher than the previous forecast [6]. 3.1.3 Apparent Demand - This week's apparent demand was 44.35 million tons, higher than the expected 42.53 million tons. The expected apparent demand for next week is 42.53 million tons. The domestic apparent demand growth rate in September is expected to be - 2%, but the actual growth rate may be lower [6]. 3.1.4 Inventory - The total inventory this week was 84.16 million tons, a decrease of 0.72 million tons from last week. The old - sample inventory decreased by 0.72 million tons, while the new - sample inventory of middle - stream traders increased by 1.62 million tons, higher than the old - sample increase of 1.76 million tons. The actual total inventory still increased [6][9]. 3.1.5 Price and Basis - The spot price of PVC showed a weakening trend. The basis of PVC showed a strengthening trend, and the inter - month spread was volatile [11][24][25]. 3.1.6 Profit - The production profit of calcium carbide in Shaanxi remained stable at - 492 yuan/ton, while the production profit of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia increased from - 40 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali slightly expanded, but it is expected to weaken later. The profit of various production methods of PVC showed different trends, with some decreasing and some increasing [11]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Market 3.2.1 Production - This week's total caustic soda production was 82.11 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.85 million tons. Next week, the production is expected to be 82.54 million tons and continue to increase [112]. 3.2.2 Import and Export - The weekly average import volume was 0.02 million tons, and the weekly average export volume was 6.52 million tons. The export volume in July was 29.1 million tons, and the export volume is estimated to be around 653,000 tons based on previous years' data [112]. 3.2.3 Apparent Demand - This week's apparent demand was around 77.09 million tons, and next week it is expected to be around 77.53 million tons based on previous years' data [112]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The total inventory (in 100% equivalent) this week was 20.05 million tons, a decrease of 1.48 million tons from last week. The liquid - caustic soda inventory in Shandong decreased by 3.10 million tons, and the flake - caustic soda inventory and the inventory of large alumina plants showed little change [112]. 3.2.5 Price and Basis - The spot price of caustic soda remained stable. The basis of caustic soda showed a strengthening trend, and the inter - month spread was volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse - arbitrage opportunity for the 1 - 5 spread [115][126][127]. 3.2.6 Profit - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong showed a mixed trend. The profit of external - sales liquid - chlorine devices improved, and the comprehensive profit of PVC - supporting enterprises weakened. The cost of caustic soda in Shandong remained stable [115].

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