Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall investment strategy involves a combination of bullish, bearish, and neutral outlooks across different sectors and commodities, with specific trading suggestions based on fundamental and technical analyses [2][4]. - For macro - financial products, A - share index futures are expected to oscillate and rise, and treasury bond futures still have upward momentum [11][13]. - In the black commodities sector, a mid - term bearish approach is recommended for steel and related products, while double - coking products may continue to oscillate in the short term [15][17]. - In the agricultural products sector, different commodities have varying trends, such as cotton in low - level oscillation, sugar with a bearish supply - demand outlook, and eggs with a complex supply - demand and price relationship [28][30][32]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil is expected to be weak, and other products like fuel oil, plastics, etc., follow their own supply - demand and market - driven trends [39][41]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Based on Fundamental and Technical Analyses - **Fundamental Analysis**: Commodities are classified into trend - bearish (e.g., iron ore), oscillating - bearish, oscillating, oscillating - bullish, and trend - bullish (e.g., lithium carbonate) based on fundamental factors [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Commodities are divided into bearish (e.g., corn starch), oscillating (e.g., Shanghai aluminum), and bullish (e.g., palm oil) based on quantitative indicators [4]. 2. Macro News - China has adjusted export control measures and trade policies, with trade data showing continuous growth in imports and a short - term decline in exports in October. CPI and PPI have positive changes, and foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves have increased [6][7]. - The US government shutdown has affected economic data release and economic growth, and the Federal Reserve's future policy actions are under consideration [8]. 3. Macro - Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt an oscillating - rising strategy, paying attention to the style switch between IH and IC. A - shares oscillated lower, affected by trade data and price index changes [11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Monetary policy implementation is in the process, and bonds still have upward momentum. The weakening of export data may lead to more relaxed monetary policies [13]. 4. Black Commodities - **Steel and Ore**: In the medium - term winter, a bearish approach is recommended. Market factors include policy, demand, supply, and valuation. The market may first rebound and then decline, and winter storage willingness may be affected [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may continue to oscillate in the short term, affected by factors such as coal mine production inspections and downstream iron - water production [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The upper and lower limits of the double - silicon disk are strengthened, and a long - term bearish approach is recommended. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances [18]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for glass, try to go long at low prices. The supply and demand of both have their own characteristics and uncertainties [20]. 5. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Zinc**: Hold short positions at high levels. Domestic zinc inventories have decreased, and the market is affected by domestic and international factors [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Oscillate in the short term, supported by strong fundamentals and inventory reduction, but limited by seasonal demand decline [23]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both oscillate within a range, with industrial silicon having a relatively balanced supply - demand relationship, and polysilicon being affected by policy expectations [24]. 6. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Oscillate at a low level, affected by supply pressure and weak demand, but supported by price resistance at low levels [28]. - **Sugar**: Adopt a bearish or wait - and - see approach. The global sugar supply is in surplus, and domestic sugar is affected by supply and cost factors [30]. - **Eggs**: Futures are strong in the short term, but the upside of spot prices is limited. Pay attention to the verification of futures expectations by spot prices [32]. - **Apples**: Oscillate strongly. The acquisition season has its own characteristics, and attention should be paid to price trends and inventory consumption [34]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the upper pressure. The market is affected by supply pressure and policy - related factors [35]. - **Jujubes**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The spot market in sales areas is weak, affecting the new jujube order price [36]. - **Pigs**: Supply pressure persists, and the spot price is likely to oscillate weakly. Adopt a bearish approach for near - month contracts [37]. 7. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: Oscillate weakly. Supply exceeds demand, and the price is likely to fall [39]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices follow crude oil, with a supply - abundant and demand - weak structure [40]. - **Plastics**: Oscillate weakly. Supply pressure is high, but production losses may provide some support [41]. - **Rubber**: Stop falling in the short term due to weather, but face upward pressure [42]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillate weakly, affected by raw materials and inventory [43]. - **Methanol**: Near - month contracts oscillate weakly, and far - month contracts can be slightly bullish after a rebound [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillate strongly, affected by spot prices, electricity prices, and other factors [46]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation range is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after winter - storage games [47]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: May continue to be strong in the short term, affected by sentiment and news, and pay attention to unexpected device changes [48]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Oscillate strongly in the short term due to peak demand, but bearish in the long term due to abundant supply [49]. - **Pulp**: The upside is limited. Observe port de - stocking and spot transactions, and consider short positions at high levels [50]. - **Logs**: Oscillate weakly, with supply pressure and a weakening spot market [51]. - **Urea**: Operate according to policies, with a wide - range oscillation strategy [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt spot and futures prices have dropped significantly, and the market focus will shift from the end - stage to winter storage. The cost side is affected by crude oil price changes, and the production and demand of asphalt are facing different situations in different links of the industrial chain, with a generally bearish outlook on prices [1][22] 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Asphalt Industry Chain Overview - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From October 27 to November 23, the weekly total asphalt production decreased by 5.8% from 56.4 tons to 53.1 tons, and then increased. The total domestic asphalt production in November is expected to be 222.8 tons, a 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year decrease. The total weekly import remained stable at 8 tons and then decreased to 7 tons. The total apparent demand decreased by 13.2% from 78 tons to 67 tons. The total inventory decreased by 4.2% from 198 tons to 189 tons [14] - **Valuation and Profit**: The cost of diluted asphalt with and without quota decreased. The profit of main refineries increased from - 80 to - 23, and the profit of some refineries decreased. The spread between residue oil and asphalt is expected to rise, and the import profit from Iran in East China remained stable. The basis is expected to maintain a positive basis [16] - **Market Outlook**: The upstream, mid - stream, and downstream of the asphalt industry chain are all bearish on prices. The upstream cost is affected by crude oil, the mid - stream has intense brand competition and weak demand, and the downstream demand is shrinking and purchasing is cautious [22] 3.2 Asphalt Refinery Profits - The document provides multiple profit charts of refineries using different raw materials such as heavy diluted asphalt and heavy high - sulfur Middle Eastern oil, including comprehensive profits and itemized profits of asphalt, diesel, and gasoline [28][39] 3.3 Asphalt Supply - **Refinery Maintenance**: Multiple refineries have carried out or are planning maintenance, including Sinochem Quanzhou, PetroChina Qinhuangdao, etc., mainly for reasons such as production transfer and regular shutdown [50] - **Production Volume**: The daily asphalt production shows different trends in different years. The production of main refineries, Sinopec refineries, and refineries using different raw materials (diluted asphalt with or without quota) also has different changes in monthly and cumulative values [54][56][58] - **Import and Inventory**: The asphalt import volume and diluted asphalt import volume have their own trends, and the diluted asphalt port inventory also shows different changes in different regions [79][82][86] 3.4 Refinery Production Choices - **Profit and Price**: Comparing data from 2024 to 2025, the prices of Brent, WTI, Shandong diesel, etc. have changed, and the comprehensive profits of medium - quality refineries and Shandong local refineries have also changed accordingly [90] - **开工率**: The operating rates of main refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, and the national coking operating rate have different trends in different years [95][97] - **Production Volume of Related Products**: The production volumes of gasoline and diesel show different trends in monthly, cumulative, and weekly values [100][102]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The international cotton market still faces downward pressure, with ongoing concerns about international trade tariffs but showing positive development. The supply of U.S. cotton is increasing, adding to the supply pressure. The market is waiting for macro - factors to boost demand [9]. - In the domestic cotton market, the harvest of domestic seed cotton is nearing completion, and the market has digested the high - cost situation. The demand side shows that the operating rate of downstream textile enterprises is lower than the same period last year and continues to decline. The industrial raw material inventory of cotton is decreasing, indicating low purchasing enthusiasm, and the digestion speed of yarn inventory is slow. Affected by inventory pressure, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is expected to be under pressure [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market行情概述 - **Important Information**: International news includes the ongoing U.S. government "shutdown", potential changes in USDA reports, progress in China - U.S. tariff trade consultations, and hearings on Trump's tariff policies. Domestic news shows new cotton listings, changes in seed cotton prices, import volume changes, and fluctuations in PMI and logistics indices [5]. - **Price Situation**: Futures and spot prices of cotton and related products mostly showed a downward or fluctuating and pressured trend this week. Cotton import profits are still relatively large, and the basis of cotton and yarn showed a trend of strengthening and then weakening [7]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: Globally, cotton production and inventory are adjusted, and U.S. cotton weekly export net sales decline. Domestically, production is expected to increase slightly, commercial inventory decreases, import volume shows a downward trend, downstream operating rates decline slightly, and textile export volume decreases [8]. Spot Market Price and Spread - **Price Trend**: Spot cotton and yarn prices are slowly declining, while imported cotton prices are rising from a low level. The basis of cotton and yarn is slowly declining due to the high - level rebound of futures prices [14][20]. - **Internal and External Spreads**: Cotton import profits are still relatively large [23]. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Data - **USDA Data**: In September, global cotton production was raised, and the ending inventory was lowered. The 10 - month data was not released due to the U.S. government shutdown [28]. - **Export Situation**: U.S. upland cotton exports decreased month - on - month [31]. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand and Industry Data - **Supply - Demand Data**: In October, domestic cotton supply - demand data was not adjusted, and USDA did not release relevant data [35]. - **Inventory Situation**: Domestic cotton commercial inventory is accumulating, and port inventory is rising [38]. - **Import Situation**: Cotton imports increased month - on - month, but the overall import volume decreased [41]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of domestic textile enterprises decreased [44]. - **Inventory and Profit**: Textile enterprises have high yarn inventory, low raw material purchasing enthusiasm, and still face losses in processing profits [47]. - **Import and Export**: Cotton yarn imports did not increase significantly, and textile exports slowed down slightly [50]. Exchange Rate Trend This week, the U.S. dollar index rebounded from a low level, and the RMB exchange rate is still appreciating [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, considering the approaching peak civilian use season, LPG prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, in the medium - to - long - term, with high supply and the expectation that demand is unlikely to strengthen beyond expectations, a bearish outlook is maintained. [6] - This week, crude oil prices continued to be weak, but PG remained firm supported by strong demand. OPEC+ further increased crude oil production. Although geopolitical disturbances between the US and Venezuela, Iran, and Russia may offset the increase to some extent, it does not change the abundant supply of oil and gas. On the demand side, the peak civilian use season is approaching, which can maintain the strength of gas prices for a certain period, while the chemical industry has poor profits and the operating rate is difficult to stay at a high level. Overall, in the long - run, LPG supply is very abundant. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART 01: LPG Market Review - In the current period, both the commercial volume and arrival volume of LPG decreased, and the reduction on the supply side provided support, causing port inventories to decline. In the next period, although the commercial volume is expected to decrease, the increase in vessel arrivals at the docks is significant, so the supply - side pressure will rise, and port inventories are expected to increase, while the inventories of production enterprises may decline slightly. [5] - The international market first rose and then fell. In the early stage, prices were at a relatively low level, and strong buying in the market drove prices up. However, buyers' acceptance of high - priced resources was insufficient, market sentiment weakened, and prices turned down. Although the November CP price decreased, the rising import cost strongly supported market sentiment, and both domestic and international spot markets increased. Coupled with the expectation of the peak combustion demand season, the winter contracts were less affected by crude oil and showed a strong trend. [5] PART 02: LPG Fundamentals LPG Supply - Domestic - The report presents data on the operating rates of major refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, comprehensive refining profits of major refineries, and the weekly commercial volume of LPG in China from 2021 to 2025. [12] LPG Supply - Import - It shows data on the weekly arrival volume of LPG in China, the weekly import trade gross profit of LPG in the South China region, the monthly total import volume of LPG in China, and the shipping prices from the Arabian Gulf region and the US Gulf Coast to the Far East from 2021 to 2025. [15][16][18] LPG Inventory - Data on weekly port inventories, refinery storage capacity ratios, port storage capacity ratios, and factory - level inventories of LPG in China from 2021 to 2025 are provided. Also, the weekly production - sales ratios in the South China, East China regions, and Shandong are presented. [21][23][24] LPG Downstream Demand - The report includes data on the weekly operating rate of PDH plants in China, the weekly production gross profit of PDH in China, the weekly production gross profit of MTBE's isomerization etherification in Shandong, the weekly capacity utilization rate of MTBE export factories in China, the weekly capacity utilization rate of alkylated oil in China, and the weekly production gross profit of alkylated oil in Shandong from 2021 to 2025. [26][28][30] PART 03: LPG - Related Price Data Import Cost: CP Forward and Current - Month Prices - It shows the CP contract prices of propane and butane from 2021 to 2025, the CP crude oil price trend, and the spot price of propane (frozen cargo) in the South China region from 2021 to 2025. [35] Spot: Domestic Refinery Civil Gas Prices and Import Discounts - Data on the ex - factory prices of civil LPG from Guangzhou Petrochemical, Jinan Refinery, and Shanghai Gaoqiao from 2021 to 2025 are presented. [38][39] PART 04: LPG Other Data - The report provides data on the basis of the LPG main contract from 2021 to 2025, the difference between the first - and second - consecutive contracts from 2021 to 2025, and the registered warehouse receipts of LPG in major delivery warehouses in 2024 - 2025. [42][44] Key Strategy Recommendation - For futures trading, in the medium - to - long - term, try to go short at high prices. [7]

Report Title - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Weekly Report - Industrial Silicon with No Prominent Contradictions, Polysilicon Continuing the Game between Policy Expectations and Negative Feedback [1] Report Date - November 9, 2025 [1] Report Author - An Ran [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the current trading logic is that although there is supply pressure, the expected slight inventory reduction due to the southwest's production cut in the dry season leads to a loose balance overall, with no prominent supply - demand contradictions. The valuation is relatively neutral to low, and it is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations in the fourth quarter. The risk of breaking through the lower limit comes from the coal end. It is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy or sell out - of - the - money put options on dips [61]. - For polysilicon, there is still a large divergence between industry policy - oriented expectations and the weak reality from the bottom - up of components. In the fourth quarter, the market will continue to repeatedly game the progress of mergers and acquisitions of production capacity. It will operate in a range - bound manner, with the lower limit anchored to the downstream's willingness - to - hold price and the upper limit pressured by the weak reality. When the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, one can try to buy out - of - the - money call options [66]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Overview and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Overview (11.3 - 11.7)** - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of 553 remained unchanged week - on - week, the price of 99 silicon in Xinjiang increased by 100 yuan, and the price of 421 remained unchanged. The prices of some raw materials such as petroleum coke and charcoal increased. The production in the northwest was basically stable, while the production in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly. The total weekly production of industrial silicon decreased by 8504 tons, a decrease of 8.2% [7]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of N - type polysilicon dense material decreased slightly, the weekly production decreased by 0.12 million tons, a decrease of 4.3%. The inventory of polysilicon factories decreased slightly. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased slightly, and the production and inventory of silicon wafers also decreased [9]. - **Organic Silicon**: The data of DMC was not updated this week. New orders were weak, and the production of DMC was under pressure. The monomer factories were cautious in purchasing industrial silicon and tried to lower the price [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The silicon consumption increased by 7.4% month - on - month, maintaining the rigid demand rhythm [9]. - **Export**: The export volume decreased by 8.4% month - on - month. Although some overseas aluminum alloy factories had purchase orders, the transaction price was difficult to rise [9]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly, with a decrease of 0.21 million tons, a decrease of 0.29%. The social inventory decreased, while the factory inventory increased [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation** - **Industrial Silicon**: For the month - spread between November and December contracts, it is recommended to wait and see when it is around 2000 - 2200. For the 06 contract, one can try to short lightly at 11700 - 11800. One can also consider selling out - of - the - money put options on dips [62][64]. - **Polysilicon**: When the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, one can try to buy out - of - the - money call options [66]. 2. Industrial Silicon Supply - **Price/Spread/Cost/Profit** - **Price**: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon showed different trends, with the price of 99 silicon in Xinjiang rising and others remaining stable [7]. - **Cost**: The costs of industrial silicon in different regions were different, and the costs in some regions increased slightly [7]. - **Profit**: Most regions were in a loss state, and the profit situation in some regions improved slightly [7]. - **Industrial Silicon Supply** - **Monthly Production**: The production in different regions showed different trends, with the production in Xinjiang stable and the production in Yunnan and Sichuan decreasing significantly [7]. - **Weekly Production**: The total weekly production of industrial silicon decreased, mainly due to the significant decrease in the production in Yunnan and Sichuan [7]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory/Supply - Demand Difference** - **Inventory**: The total inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly, with the social inventory decreasing and the factory inventory increasing [9]. - **Supply - Demand Difference**: The supply - demand situation showed a loose balance, with no prominent contradictions [61]. 3. Industrial Silicon Demand - Polysilicon - **Polysilicon Supply Analysis** - **Price/Spread/Cost/Profit**: The price of polysilicon decreased slightly, the cost was stable, and the profit decreased slightly [9]. - **Polysilicon Supply**: The weekly production of polysilicon decreased, and it was expected that the production in November would be less than 1.2 million tons [9]. - **Polysilicon Demand Analysis** - The demand for polysilicon was affected by the production cut of silicon wafers, and the consumption decreased [9]. - **Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Chain Inventory Analysis** - The inventory of polysilicon factories decreased slightly, and the inventory of silicon wafers also decreased [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar market: Brazil's sugar production is strong, and the sugar production in the northern hemisphere, especially in India, is expected to increase significantly, with a possible rise in exports that could drag down sugar prices. However, Brazil's strong export data in October provides support to the market and may limit price declines [5]. - Domestic sugar market: The domestic sugar market is oscillating at a low level, supported by cost expectations and stricter policies on the control of syrup and pre - mixed powder. Currently, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price is slightly undervalued compared to the spot price and cost, but it is still higher than the dynamic cost of out - of - quota imported sugar. The upcoming start of sugar production in southern China may bring phased supply pressure [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Spot and Spread Data Tracking and Display - **Spot price and basis in production areas**: The spot market mainly trades sugar from the 2024/25 crushing season, with relatively high prices. Newly - listed beet sugar is slightly cheaper than old sugar, and trading volume is low. Attention should be paid to the listing rhythm and price changes of new sugar in Guangxi [11]. - **Inter - month spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4]. - **Domestic and foreign spreads**: Due to low import costs, the processing profit margin of out - of - quota imported sugar is evident, and the in - quota import profit is substantial, exceeding 1,000 yuan [18]. 3.2 Overview of Key Market Data 3.2.1 International Market - **Brazil**: Brazil's sugar production decreased on a two - week basis, but the sugar - to - cane ratio is high, and the cumulative sugar production exceeds market expectations. In October, Brazil's sugar exports increased significantly, but the appreciation of the real is unfavorable for exports. Thailand and India are about to start production, and expected production increases will bring pressure to the market [22][28][31]. 3.2.2 Domestic Market - **Production and consumption expectations**: China's sugar production is expected to increase, and consumption is expected to rise slightly. The October supply - demand report made no adjustments, but the impact of typhoons in southern sugar - cane producing areas from September to October should be noted [35][37]. - **Production and sales data in Guangxi and Yunnan**: The production and sales data in Guangxi and Yunnan are turning bearish. The destocking speed in Yunnan has slowed down, and the import volume of sugar in China has increased, with the September import volume still expected to be higher year - on - year [39][41]. - **Import of syrup and pre - mixed powder**: Due to stricter policy control, the import of syrup and pre - mixed powder in China is expected to decrease [43]. - **Downstream demand**: Downstream demand is not bad but not outstanding either, and the downstream market lacks sufficient stimulation [46][49].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The export window for zinc ingots is open, and some domestic zinc ingots are flowing out. The Shanghai zinc futures price has remained high, but the weak fundamental consumption is expected to suppress the subsequent zinc price. The Shanghai-London ratio is expected to remain stable next week [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review - **Supply - Side**: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee (TC) decreased by 7.02% to 2650 yuan/metal ton. The import zinc concentrate TC continued to deteriorate, with the ordinary zinc ore offer at 60 - 100 dollars/dry ton. The galvanizing, zinc oxide, and die - casting zinc alloy开工 rates decreased by 4.19%, 0.96%, and 2.95% respectively. The decrease in the galvanizing开工 rate was due to environmental protection restrictions in some regions, which are expected to end soon. The die - casting zinc alloy开工 rate decreased due to production problems in some enterprises and the rising zinc price [6]. - **Demand - Side**: In the south, the improvement in weather led to increased orders for some terminal projects such as greenhouse pipes and transportation. Export orders were relatively stable due to tariff negotiations [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 0.30 tons to 15.87 tons compared to November 3. The Shanghai and Guangdong inventories decreased due to downstream pick - up and exports. The bonded area inventory decreased to 0.38 tons, and the LME zinc inventory dropped to 0 tons. The spot trading was average, and the spot premium was expected to remain weak [6]. - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The Shanghai - London ratio rose to around 7.4, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. The London zinc price was under pressure from the strong US dollar but was supported by the low inventory. The Shanghai zinc price rose rapidly but fluctuated due to weak domestic consumption. In terms of spot prices, the Guangdong spot premium was expected to continue to fluctuate, the Shanghai spot premium was expected to remain volatile, and the Tianjin spot premium might rise slightly after the end of environmental protection restrictions [8][12][13]. 2. Supply Side - **Processing Fee**: In November, the domestic zinc ore processing fee declined rapidly, increasing the raw material procurement pressure on smelters. The SMM predicted a slight decrease in zinc ingot production in November compared to October, but the overall supply remained strong. The zinc ingot export window has been open since October and November, and the export expectation has boosted the domestic zinc price [16]. - **Production and Import**: From January to September 2025, the cumulative import of zinc concentrate was 400.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.3%. In September, the import of zinc concentrate was 50.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.0% and a month - on - month increase of 8.2%. The import of refined zinc and zinc alloy decreased slightly year - on - year. In September, the import of refined zinc was 2.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 57.0% [32]. 3. Demand Side - **Downstream Prices and Production**: The report provided historical price trends of downstream products such as zinc alloy, zinc oxide, and hot - dip galvanizing. The weekly production and开工 rates of downstream industries such as galvanizing, die - casting, and zinc oxide were also presented, but specific changes were not detailed [36][39]. 4. Inventory Changes - **Futures Inventory**: The LME zinc inventory dropped to 0 tons, and the SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 3.10%. - **Spot Inventory**: The SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased, and the bonded area inventory also decreased due to exports [6][44][46]. 5. Macroeconomic Influences - The report presented historical trends of exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio, the US dollar index, and the US federal funds target rate, but did not elaborate on their specific impacts on the zinc market [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rhythm of the central bank's bond - buying is smoother than expected, but the resonance between the fundamentals and monetary policy may still push up the bond market [6]. - The monetary policy is gradually reaching more consensus on aggregate easing, and the intensification of monetary policy is entering the implementation stage as previously predicted [8]. - The bond market may still have upward momentum, and the yield curve may continue to steepen [8]. Summary According to the Directory 01 Logic and Strategy (P3 - 4) - The central bank's large - scale reverse - repurchase withdrawal led to a marginal convergence of capital prices after an initial loose period, with overall price stability. The central bank restarted bond - buying with a purchase of 20 billion yuan, the lowest level since the start of bond - buying and significantly lower than the 100 - 300 billion yuan level in 2024. The 70 billion yuan 3 - month repurchase in November was fully hedged [8][34]. - The symbolic significance of the central bank's bond - buying may be more positive than the actual scale, which is bearish. The central bank's small - scale bond - buying is mainly due to concerns about the sharp decline in bond yields during the previous bond - buying period [8][34]. - The weakening of foreign trade data is affected by both the holiday misalignment and the decline in external demand, and foreign trade pressure still exists. The macro - financial and economic data to be released next week may be weak, especially in the real estate sector [8]. - The monetary policy is expected to intensify, and the bond market may have upward momentum, with the curve likely to continue to steepen [8]. 02 Macro Main Asset Fund Flow Changes (P5 - 6) No relevant content provided. 03 Recent Macro Data Analysis and Review (P7 - 13) - **Domestic**: In October, trade data showed a significant year - on - year decline in export growth, turning negative and lower than expected. The decline in exports was due to short - term factors and structural pressures, including the high - base effect, holiday misalignment, and the impact of US tariff policies. The natural decline in foreign trade is a more concerning trend. Moderately loose monetary policy should be implemented [8][19]. - **Overseas**: Due to the US government shutdown, the labor department missed employment data for two consecutive months. ADP employment data and the significant increase in Challenger job - cuts point to a loosening US labor market. Although the ISM manufacturing PMI declined slightly, the service PMI rebounded, mainly driven by new orders and business activities. The US economy is still growing at a slower pace but remains resilient [8][19]. 04 Fundamentals Analysis and Bond Futures - Spot Indicator Monitoring (P14 - 24) - **Fundamentals**: The central bank's bond - buying and repurchase operations did not exceed expectations. The bond market declined slightly due to the weakening of bond - buying sentiment and the marginal convergence of the capital side. The weakening of foreign trade data and the upcoming release of potentially weak macro - financial and economic data may affect the bond market. The redemption fee rate of public funds still disturbs the bond market sentiment [8]. - **Indicator Monitoring**: Data on bond yields, reverse - repurchase operations, and various bond - related indicators such as bond futures prices, positions, and spreads are presented, showing the performance and changes in the bond market [43][47][94]. 05 Equity Broad - based Index Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Futures - Spot Indicator Monitoring (P25 - 31) - **Fundamentals**: Data on the ROE of major equity broad - based indices are presented, showing the relationship between the ROE of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc., and macro - economic data [96][99][101]. - **Liquidity and Futures - Spot Indicator Monitoring**: No relevant in - depth analysis content provided. 06 Macro - economic Medium - term Fundamental Tracking and Monitoring (P32 - 50) No relevant content provided. 07 Macro - economic Long - wave Fundamental Tracking and Monitoring (P51 - 52) No relevant content provided.

中泰期货红枣市场表现与基本面周度报告 姓名：梁作盼 期货从业资格号：F3048593 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0015589 联系电话： 17615857579 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 现货价格（主产区） 本页数据来源:Mysteel我的农产品 中泰期货整理 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 主产区成交价格（元/公斤） 阿克苏 阿拉尔 喀什 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 喀什通货（元/公斤） 2025年度 2024年度 2023年度 2022年度 2021年度 2020年度 2019年度 本周盘面价格下跌后在疆客商采购积极性较低，多观望等待集中下树，卖方挺价情绪松动，价格小幅松动。 主产区阿克苏地区通货主流价格参考6.00-7.00元/公斤，阿拉尔地区通货主流价格参考6.30-7.50元/公斤， 喀什地方价格在6.90-7.50元/公斤，若羌8.50-10.00元/公斤，和田地区通货主流价格8.00-8.50元/公斤， 且末7.50-8.50元/公斤，和田及且末地区收购基本结束，产区原料收购以质论价，维持优质优价原则，产区 下树进度在3成左右。据产地权威人士反馈喀什兵团及麦盖提地方货源以本地 ...

中泰期货苹果市场表现与基本面周度报告 姓名：梁作盼 期货从业资格号：F3048593 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0015589 联系电话： 17615857579 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 2025-11-09 本周观点 本页数据来源:卓创资讯 Mysteel 中泰期货整理 | 利多因素 | 1、新季苹果价格优果优价明显；2、全国苹果质量同比下降明显；3、新季库存同比降低 | | --- | --- | | 利空因素 | 1、市场消费偏差；2、市场替代水果价格偏低 | | | 东西部产区的晚熟富士收购进入尾声。山东产区：栖霞80#一二级价格3.75元/斤。蓬莱80#一二级3.75元/斤。西部产区：洛川70#半 | | 市 场 | 商品价格4.15元/斤；11月5日，甘肃静宁产区晚富士75#以上价格5.5元/斤（来源：Mysteel）。 | | 基 | 库存方面：据统计，截止到2025年11月6日全国冷库库存比例约为51.68%，库存量为682.74万吨，较去年同期（20241107）低10.62个 | | 本 | | | 面 | 百分点，存储量较去年同期低17.04%。（来源：卓创数据）。截至2025 ...