Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the market is influenced by various factors including macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical events. Different sectors and commodities show diverse trends and investment opportunities [12][15][37]. - For macro - finance, the stock index futures market may have profit - taking demand, and the bond market may rebound. In the black market, it is expected to be mainly in a short - term shock state. For non - ferrous metals and new materials, different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions. In the agricultural products market, prices are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies. The energy and chemical industry is also affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors [12][15][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The Chinese government is focusing on strengthening the domestic cycle and regulating the new energy vehicle industry. The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo was opened. NVIDIA's CEO believes that China's open - source AI promotes global progress, and the next wave of AI will be robot systems [8]. - From July 1 - 13, the national passenger car market retail volume increased by 7% year - on - year, and the new energy market retail volume increased by 26% year - on - year. Trump said he probably won't fire Powell, and he is considering trade agreements and tariffs. The US June PPI was flat month - on - month, and the Fed's "Beige Book" showed a slight increase in economic activity [9]. Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Pay attention to the support of the moving average and consider gradually taking profits or adopting a covered call strategy. The market may have profit - taking demand due to the release of macro data and company reports [12]. Bond Futures - Strategy: Pay attention to the capital situation during the tax period, and the bond market may rebound. The central bank's reverse repurchase increases to protect the capital during the tax period. The economic data shows that the annual growth target pressure is reduced, and the bond market may correct the pricing of capital and supervision [13]. Black Market Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - Market fluctuation reason: The release of economic data led to a weak performance in the black market. - Future market view: The policy expectation has improved in the short - to - medium term, but it is more likely to be stable overall. The downstream demand has seasonal and marginal weakening, and the supply will remain at a high level. The steel valuation may increase, and the short - term market may be mainly in shock [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - View: Affected by policy expectations, the black - series commodities rebounded, driving the double - coking to continue to rebound. In the medium term, it is still under pressure due to crude steel production cuts and macro - policies [16]. Ferroalloys - Market outlook: In July, the supply gap of double - silicon is expected to narrow significantly, and the supply - demand structure will weaken marginally. It is recommended to hold short positions [17]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: With the decline in risk preference and the increase in inventory accumulation expectations, it is recommended to short at high prices. In the off - season, it can be bought at low prices for the peak - season consumption [21]. - Alumina: In the short term, it can be bought to repair the discount. In the long term, it is under pressure due to over - supply and high inventory [21]. Zinc - View: The inventory has increased, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak. The zinc price will oscillate and decline [22]. Lithium Carbonate - View: It will mainly operate in a wide - range shock before the impact of the mine - end disturbance is determined [23]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, but it may return to the over - supply situation due to the high elasticity of supply. The market is expected to be in shock [24]. - Polysilicon: The anti -内卷 signal has been issued, which may deviate from the over - supply contradiction in the short term. The supply - demand difference may return to the inventory - accumulation expectation [26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Logic and view: The cotton price is still in the process of shock and rebound. It is recommended to hold the long - September and short - January trade [27]. Sugar - Logic and view: The domestic sugar price is under downward pressure due to the expected increase in processed sugar and the decrease in import costs. It will run in shock in the short term [28]. Eggs - View: It has entered the seasonal rise, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival is large. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to the long - term anti - arbitrage combination [30]. Apples - View: It is recommended to conduct light - position positive arbitrage. The market is in a range - bound shock [31]. Corn - View: The market is in shock. It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the valuation repair opportunity after the market decline [32]. Red Dates - View: It is recommended to lightly short. The supply is strong and the demand is weak in the short term, and the market is in the bottom - range shock [33]. Pigs - View: The spot price is declining, and it is recommended to short the near - month contract lightly [35]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by trade wars and the global economic situation. It is likely to enter a supply - surplus pattern, and it is recommended to short at high prices [37]. Fuel Oil - The price is weaker than that of crude oil, and the fundamentals are gradually becoming looser. The market is affected by factors such as power - generation demand and shipping [38]. Plastics - The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold put options or have a slightly short - biased allocation [39]. Methanol - The port inventory is increasing, and the price is expected to be in a weak shock. It is recommended to short after a rebound or consider put options [41]. Caustic Soda - The futures contract is expected to be in a weak shock. The weakening of liquid chlorine will support the price in the short term [42]. Asphalt - It follows the price of crude oil and is stronger than crude oil. The fundamentals are stable during the rainy season [43]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is still recommended to short at high prices. Different products in the chain have different supply - demand situations and trends [44]. Pulp - The 09 contract is expected to be in shock. It is recommended to adopt strategies such as selling call options or accumulating puts for those holding spot goods [45]. Logs - The 09 contract is expected to be in shock. Pay attention to the downstream start - up and port inventory [46]. Urea - Affected by rumors and market fundamentals, the price has a downward drive, but it is not advisable to short aggressively. It can be considered to buy at low prices [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's tariff 2.0 on copper and copper products has a negative impact on the macro - sentiment. The tariff of 50% on copper and copper products starting from August 1st is beyond market expectations, causing a divergence in the trends of US and London copper, with the price difference widening to $2000 - 3000. The tariff will lead to a decrease in copper flowing from non - US regions to the US, alleviating the supply pressure in non - US regions and having a negative impact on London and Shanghai copper prices. Short - term copper prices will mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner. The recommended strategies are to short on rallies and sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Weekly Review 3.1.1 Weekly Data - **Supply - side**: The spot TC of copper concentrate was $44.25/ton, up $0.46 or 1.04% week - on - week. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 1848 yuan/ton, down 1011 yuan or 54.72%. The southern crude copper processing fee remained unchanged at 800 yuan/ton. The operating rate of refined copper rods was 64%, down 3 percentage points or 5.11%. The operating rate of recycled copper rods was 25%, up 0.7 percentage points or 2.66%. The operating rate of wire and cable was 68%, down 4 percentage points or 5.47% [7]. - **Inventory**: The available days of copper concentrate port inventory were 5.6 days, down 0.2 days or 3.09%. The social inventory of electrolytic copper was 14.29 million tons, up 0.47 million tons or 3.29%. The bonded area inventory was 7.29 million tons, up 0.59 million tons or 8.09%. The total global inventory was 50.04 million tons, up 4.05 million tons or 8.09% [7]. - **Valuation**: The spot smelting comprehensive profit was - 3850 yuan/ton, up 561 yuan or 14.58%. The long - term smelting comprehensive profit was - 317 yuan/ton, up 541 yuan or 170.69%. The import profit was - 970 yuan/ton, up 659 yuan or 67.93% [7]. 3.1.2 Comprehensive Logic - Affected by the copper tariff expectation, about 400,000 tons of copper (about half a year's import volume in the US) has been imported into the US in advance. After the tariff is implemented in early August, the flow of copper from non - US regions to the US will stop, and the supply pressure in non - US regions will be alleviated. The tariff policy has a negative impact on London and Shanghai copper prices. Short - term copper prices will mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner [9]. 3.1.3 Fed Rate - cut Path - The report provides the expected interest rate changes and implied overnight interest rates of different regions and time points in the US through the federal funds futures and OIS models, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's rate - cut path [11]. Part 2: Copper Industry Chain 3.2.1 Price/Spread/Cost/Profit - **Price**: The report presents the historical data of SMM1 electrolytic copper premium/discount, Shanghai copper term structure, Shanghai copper main contract closing price, and LME3 closing price [13][16][21][23]. - **Spread**: It shows the historical data of the Shanghai - London ratio, Shanghai - London ratio (excluding exchange rate), and LME(0 - 3) premium/discount [23]. - **Cost/Profit**: The report provides the historical data of spot copper import profit, electrolytic copper comprehensive profit (including by - product sulfuric acid), feed - processing spot export profit, and electrolytic copper comprehensive profit for long - term contracts [25][27][29][31]. 3.2.2 Copper Supply/Demand - **Supply**: It includes the production of copper concentrate in Chile and Peru, the import volume of copper concentrate, scrap copper, and crude copper, and the production and import volume of electrolytic copper [33][37][40]. - **Demand**: - **Copper Rod - Cable**: The operating rates of refined copper rods, wire and cable, and enameled wire, as well as the raw material and finished product inventory ratios of copper rod lines are presented [44][45]. - **Cable Terminal - Power Grid**: The cumulative and monthly power grid investment completion amounts are provided [46][47]. - **Copper Tube - Air Conditioner**: The operating rate of copper tubes, the raw material and finished product inventory ratios of copper tubes, and the production, domestic sales, and export volumes of household air conditioners are shown [54][55]. - **Copper Plate - Strip**: The operating rate of copper plate - strips, and the raw material and finished product inventory ratios of copper plate - strips are presented [58][59]. - **Terminal - Automobile**: The monthly production and sales volumes of automobiles and new - energy vehicles are provided [61][62][64]. - **Brass Rod - Real Estate**: The operating rate of brass rods, the monthly and cumulative housing completion areas, and the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large cities are shown [67][68][70][72]. 3.2.3 Copper Inventory - **Domestic**: The report provides the historical data of domestic copper inventories, including social inventory, bonded area inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory, and SMM copper concentrate port inventory [73][74]. - **Overseas**: It shows the historical data of overseas copper inventories, including LME electrolytic copper inventory, COMEX electrolytic copper inventory, and global refined copper inventory [76][77]. Part 3: Capital Position 3.3.1 Copper External Market Position - On July 8th, the non - commercial long - position ratio of CFTC was 35.1%, slightly lower and basically flat, and the net long - position increased to 39,600 lots. On July 11th, the net long - position of LME investment funds was 32,182 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 6990 lots [83].

2 0 2 5 . 7 . 1 5 原木周报 中泰期货股份有限公司 高萍 交易咨询证号：Z0012806 目录 CONTENTS 1 原木综述 2 原木平衡表解析 3 原木供需解析 4 原木成本利润 Part 1 原木综述 1.1 原木综述——供给端 5 原木价格与价差 | | | 项目 | 单位 | 2025年5月 2025/7/11 | 2025年4月 2025/7/4 | 环比 | 累计 同比 | 预估下周/月 根据三方数据线性预估 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 国外 | 到船量 | 条 | 10 | 13 | -3 | —— | 6条 | | | | | 到港量 | 万方 | 34.35 | 44.3 | -9.95 | | 19.2万方 | | | | | 针叶原木进口量 | | 219.07 | 218.46 | 0.61 | -11% | | | | | | 辐射松进口量 | | 169.00 | 165.45 | 3.55 | -6% | | 短期来看，下周到港仍处低位，供应端具 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro - financial**: Consider gradually taking profits or adopting covered strategies for stock index futures; pay attention to the tax - period capital situation, and the bond market may rebound [11][12]. - **Black metals**: The black market is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term; do not chase long on the double - silicon futures, and focus on shorting at high levels in the medium term; soda ash may rise in the short term, and avoid short - selling; glass can be considered to go long at low levels [14][17][18]. - **Non - ferrous metals and new materials**: For aluminum and alumina, it is recommended to short at high levels; lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the short term; industrial silicon may maintain a strong shock, and polysilicon is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term [20][21][22]. - **Agricultural products**: For cotton, short at high levels; for sugar, it may fall in the short term; for eggs, short on rebounds; for corn, remain on the sidelines; for live pigs, short the near - month contracts [24][26][28][29][30]. - **Energy and chemicals**: Crude oil is likely to enter a supply - surplus pattern and may fluctuate; fuel oil and asphalt follow the trend of oil prices; plastics can be considered to hold put options or short slightly; rubber can be short - term long on pullbacks; methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly; caustic soda should maintain a short - selling mindset; for the polyester industry chain, short at high levels or long the bottle chip processing fee; LPG futures are easy to fall and difficult to rise [31][33][35][38][39][41][42]. - **Others**: For pulp, observe the inventory reduction and spot trading; for logs, the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate; for urea, consider buying at low levels; for synthetic rubber, be cautious when chasing high [44][45][46]. 3. Summaries according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - China's social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan in H1 2025, and RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [7]. - On July 15, the central bank will conduct a 1.4 trillion - yuan outright reverse - repurchase operation [7]. - In H1 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. In June, exports of rare earths were 7,742.2 tons, and cumulative exports from January to June were 32,569.2 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.9% [7]. - Over 80% of surveyed economists believe that the Q2 economic growth rate will not be lower than 5%, and they expect consumption to continue to stabilize in H2, while the property market sales may decline [8]. - Trump urges Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement, otherwise a 100% secondary tariff will be imposed. He also plans to impose new tariffs on more than 20 countries from August 1 and a 50% tariff on all imported copper [8][9]. - OPEC and its allies are increasing oil production, and the demand in Q3 is expected to be "very strong" [9]. 3.2 Macro - financial 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures The Shanghai Composite Index has slowed its rise after breaking through 3,500 points. Given the release of macro data and the disclosure of semi - annual reports, there may be a need to take profits on short - term long positions [11]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations maintain net investment, and the bond market may rebound due to the correction of capital and regulatory pricing [12]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore The black market is on a shock - rebound trend due to positive policy expectations. In the short - to - medium term, policies are expected to be more favorable, but overall, stability is the main focus. Downstream steel demand is seasonally weakening, while supply is expected to remain high. The price of raw materials may boost market sentiment [14]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke In the short term, the double - coke market may continue to rebound, but in the medium term, it may remain weak due to crude steel production cuts and macro - policies [15]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys Do not chase long on the double - silicon futures, and focus on shorting at high levels in the medium term, as the fundamentals are expected to weaken [17]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass Soda ash may rise in the short term, and avoid short - selling; glass can be considered to go long at low levels, and pay attention to the market situation in Hubei [18]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Aluminum and Alumina For aluminum, short at high levels due to increased inventory and weak consumption; for alumina, short at high levels as supply is expected to be abundant [20]. 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, and the price may fall after a rapid increase, but the downside is limited [21]. 3.4.3 Industrial Silicon It is expected to maintain a strong shock, but there is no continuous upward driving force [22]. 3.4.4 Polysilicon It is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term, but pay attention to the implementation of policies and the generation of warehouse receipts [23]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton The cotton price may rebound in the short term, but there are long - term concerns about demand. Short at high levels [24]. 3.5.2 Sugar The domestic sugar price may fall in the short term due to expected increased supply and lower import costs [26]. 3.5.3 Eggs The egg price may enter a seasonal rising period, but the increase during the Mid - Autumn Festival may be limited. Short on rebounds [28]. 3.5.4 Corn Maintain a wait - and - see attitude as the price is oscillating. There is a chance of valuation repair after the downturn [29]. 3.5.5 Live Pigs Short the near - month contracts, as the supply is expected to increase and the demand is weak [30]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil It is likely to enter a supply - surplus pattern and may fluctuate due to uncertain demand during the peak season [31]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil The price follows the trend of oil prices, and the current focus is on tariffs and short - term supply - demand fundamentals [33]. 3.6.3 Plastics Short - term sentiment may support prices, but the supply - demand situation is weak. Consider holding put options or a slightly short position [33]. 3.6.4 Rubber It may be slightly strong in the short term due to improved market sentiment. Short - term long on pullbacks [35]. 3.6.5 Methanol It is expected to fluctuate weakly. Consider short - selling after a rebound or holding put options [38]. 3.6.6 Caustic Soda Maintain a short - selling mindset as the 09 contract may face pressure [39]. 3.6.7 Asphalt It follows the trend of oil prices and is stronger than oil. The current focus is on tariffs and short - term supply - demand fundamentals [40]. 3.6.8 Polyester Industry Chain Consider shorting at high levels or long the bottle chip processing fee, as the industry's supply - demand situation is not favorable [41]. 3.6.9 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) LPG futures are easy to fall and difficult to rise due to abundant supply and weak demand [42]. 3.7 Others 3.7.1 Pulp Observe whether port inventory reduction continues and spot trading improves. The price is expected to have limited upward and downward space [44]. 3.7.2 Logs The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate, and pay attention to downstream start - up and port inventory [44]. 3.7.3 Urea Consider buying at low levels. Although there may be a callback, do not be overly aggressive in shorting [44]. 3.7.4 Synthetic Rubber It may be slightly strong in the short term but weak in the long term. Be cautious when chasing high [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention the industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro - Financial**: For stock index futures, consider gradual profit - taking or covered strategies; for treasury bond futures, consider hedging and reducing duration. The market may have a demand for profit - taking due to potential short - term positive news realization. The focus in the bond market is whether the downward shift of the capital center can persist [7][8]. - **Black Metals**: The black market may continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. Recommendations are to wait and see or engage in spot - futures positive arbitrage when prices are high. Coal and coke may rebound in the short term due to policy expectations but remain weak in the medium term. For ferroalloys, it is advisable to hold short positions and add more short positions on rebounds [10][11][12]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: For aluminum and alumina, it is recommended to short at high prices. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate and decline. Industrial silicon is expected to turn to oscillatory operation, and polysilicon is expected to maintain a relatively strong operation with continued attention to follow - up measures and warehouse receipt generation [16][19]. - **Agricultural Products**: For cotton, consider short - selling at high prices; for sugar, the short - term trend is oscillatory and strong; for eggs, maintain a strategy of short - selling on rebounds; for apples, use a light - position positive arbitrage strategy; for corn, wait and see; for dates, lightly short - sell; for live pigs, short the near - term contracts with light positions [21][23][26][27]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is expected to be in a supply - exceeding - demand pattern in the long run, oscillating in the short term. Fuel oil and asphalt prices follow crude oil. Plastics and methanol are expected to oscillate weakly. For caustic soda, maintain a short - selling mindset. For the polyester industry chain, consider short - selling at high prices. LPG prices are likely to decline, and for pulp, observe port destocking and spot trading improvement. For logs, the 09 contract is expected to oscillate. For urea, maintain a long - buying mindset [33][36][37][40][41][43][44]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through 3500 points. The market is discussing a high - level meeting on urban renewal. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has revised the GEM Composite Index compilation plan. There may be a demand for profit - taking due to short - term positive news realization [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's reverse repurchase has turned to net investment. The focus in the bond market is whether the downward shift of the capital center can persist. Consider hedging and reducing duration [8]. Black Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Macro - policy expectations have improved in the short and medium term, but large - scale stimulus policies are likely to come later. Downstream steel demand has seasonal and marginal weakening. Supply is expected to remain high, and the valuation of the futures market is expected to rise. The market may oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. - **Coal and Coke**: They are rebounding in the short term due to policy expectations. In the medium term, they are weak due to crude steel production cuts and macro - policies. The supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the supply of coke follows [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: The market is oscillating at a relatively high level with increased volatility. The fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to hold short positions and add more short positions on rebounds [12]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash is rising in the short term following market sentiment, and it is advisable to avoid short - selling for now. Glass is recommended to be bought at low prices. Soda ash has supply - surplus and high - inventory problems, while glass has improved inventory removal [13][14]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum is affected by international negotiations and consumption weakness, with an increasing inventory accumulation expectation. Alumina has a relatively loose supply. Both are recommended to be short - sold at high prices [16]. - **Zinc**: Social inventories are increasing, and the production of smelters is accelerating. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate and decline [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is in a short - term tight - balance state but is expected to be in surplus in the long term, with limited upward driving force [18]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to turn to oscillatory operation, and polysilicon is expected to maintain a relatively strong operation. Attention should be paid to follow - up measures and warehouse receipt generation [19][20]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: It is oscillating and rebounding in the short term but is under long - term demand pressure. Consider short - selling at high prices [21]. - **Sugar**: It is oscillating and strong in the short term. There is an expected increase in supply, which may suppress prices [23][24]. - **Eggs**: They are in a seasonal upward trend, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival may limit the increase. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [26]. - **Apples**: Use a light - position positive arbitrage strategy. The old - season apples' prices are falling, and the new - season apples are expected to oscillate [27]. - **Corn**: The market is oscillating. It is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to the valuation repair opportunity after the market has fallen excessively [28][29]. - **Dates**: Consider short - selling with a light position. The market is in a supply - exceeding - demand pattern in the short term [30]. - **Live Pigs**: Short the near - term contracts with light positions. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It is likely to enter a supply - exceeding - demand pattern in the long run, oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the US - Iran agreement and the summer peak demand [33]. - **Fuel Oil**: Its price follows crude oil. The market is affected by the peak power - generation demand in the Middle East and weak shipping [34][35]. - **Plastics**: The short - term market sentiment may support prices, but the supply - exceeding - demand situation remains. Consider holding put options or short - selling slightly [36]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply of imports has recovered, and the port inventory is gradually increasing [37]. - **Caustic Soda**: Do not chase high prices. Maintain a short - selling mindset as the futures contract may face pressure [38]. - **Asphalt**: Its price follows crude oil. The market is in a seasonal off - peak season with only rigid demand [39]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Consider short - selling at high prices. The industry's supply - demand situation is weak, and the price rebound is difficult to sustain [40]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: It is expected to decline. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the medium - long term [41]. - **Pulp**: Observe whether port destocking continues and spot trading improves. The price is expected to have limited upward and downward space [41]. - **Logs**: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate. The import is expected to be weak, and the demand is also soft [43]. - **Urea**: Maintain a long - buying mindset as there are high export profit expectations and export opportunities [43][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the doc 2. Core Views 2.1纯碱市场 - 检修带动短期产量偏低但后续将提升，计划内检修较少；国外价格到国内暂无优势，进口窗口未开，国内价格低位出口较好；终端备货充足，需求有回落预期，库存压力难解；市场正反馈情绪回落后维持偏空思路，短期防范风险观望为主 [7][9] 2.2玻璃市场 - 部分前期点火产线等待出品，供应端存政策端利多导向但暂未落地；近周末市场氛围受盘面走强提振，观察梅雨季后市场情绪变化；需求情绪走强库存下行；低位多单持有思路，情绪转弱则灵活离场 [153][155] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1纯碱市场 3.1.1市场综述 - 当期总产量70.89万吨，环比持平，预计后续提升；重质产量40.01万吨，环比增0.43万吨；轻质产量30.88万吨，环比降0.43万吨；进口0.03万吨，环比持平；出口4.1万吨，环比持平；浮法玻璃日熔量158425t/d，环比增650t/d；光伏玻璃日熔量91400t/d，环比降600t/d；重碱消费量33.70万吨，环比增0.02万吨；轻碱表需29.57万吨，环比增0.88万吨；纯碱表需65.50万吨，环比降1.13万吨；碱厂库存186.34万吨，环比增5.39万吨；社会库存23.80万吨，环比增1.00万吨；样本终端原料天数23.36天，环比增1.54天；氨碱法成本1281元，环比持平；氨碱法利润 -81元，环比增40元；联碱法成本1142元，环比降8元；联碱法利润8元，环比增48元；华中重碱 - 轻碱价差0元，环比持平；沙河市场价基差 -75元，环比降48元 [7] 3.1.2月度供需 - 展示了2020 - 2025年各月纯碱当月产量、进口量、表观需求量、出口量数据 [15][17][18][20] 3.1.3基差价差 - 展示了纯碱和玻璃期现货价格对照、纯碱合约基差、跨期价差、玻璃 - 纯碱合约/现货价差数据 [24][25][26][27][29][31][32][34][35][36][38][39][40][41] 3.1.4市场价格 - 沙河区域重质纯碱当期价1207元，环比上周涨23元，环比去年降693元；轻重碱区域价格有不同变化；展示了各区域重质、轻质纯碱价格及价差数据 [44][48][68] 3.1.5供应 - 目前多家企业检修/降负荷，部分企业有计划检修；当期国内纯碱开工率81.32%，环比上周持平，环比去年降6.01%；周产量70.89万吨，环比上周持平，环比去年降1.91%；重质纯碱产量40.01万吨，环比上周增0.43万吨，环比去年降2.47万吨；轻质纯碱产量30.88万吨，环比上周降0.43万吨，环比去年增0.56万吨；重质化率56.44%，环比上周增0.61%，环比去年降1.91%；产销比92.40%，环比上周降1.59%，环比去年降18.59% [74][75] 3.1.6需求 - 展示了浮法、光伏玻璃在产日熔量、重质纯碱日耗量、周度需求、周度表观消费量、产销率及光伏玻璃价格数据 [122][124][126][128][130][131][134][135] 3.1.7库存 - 当期纯碱企业库存186.34万吨，环比增5.39万吨，环比去年增87.98万吨；轻质纯碱企业库存79.13万吨，环比降1.35万吨，环比去年增20.80万吨；重质纯碱企业库存107.21万吨，环比增6.74万吨，环比去年增67.18万吨；库存天数15.45天，环比增0.45天，环比去年增7.19天 [139] 3.1.8仓单数量/有效预报 - Not provided in the doc 3.1.9地产相关数据 - Not provided in the doc 3.2玻璃市场 3.2.1市场综述 - 当期浮法玻璃日熔量158425t/d，环比增650t/d；周产量110.90万吨，环比增0.45万吨；表观消费量120.81万吨，环比增9.71万吨；厂库库存335.51万吨，环比降9.92万吨；天然气线成本1408元，环比增8元；天然气线利润 -178元，环比降8元；煤制气线成本931元，环比增12元；煤制气线利润214元，环比降6元；石油焦线成本1051元，环比增8元；石油焦线利润19元，环比降8元；华东 - 华中价差160元，环比持平；沙河5mm大板基差 -79元，环比降47元 [153] 3.2.2月度供需 - 展示了2020 - 2025年平板玻璃当月产量、浮法玻璃当月进口量、当月产量同比、当月出口量数据 [160][162][163][165] 3.2.3基差价差 - 展示了纯碱和玻璃期现货价格对照、玻璃合约基差、跨期价差、玻璃 - 纯碱合约/现货价差数据 [169][170][171][172][174][175][176][178][180][181][183][184][185][186] 3.2.4市场价格 - 展示了浮法玻璃5mm区域价格，包括沙河、华北、华东等地区不同规格价格及环比情况；还展示了各区域浮法玻璃5mm市场价及沙河、湖北部分企业5mm大板含税价数据 [190][192][193][195][196][198][200][202][204][206][208][210][211][213][215][216][217][219][221][223] 3.2.5供应 - 当期浮法玻璃煤制气企业利润108.78元，环比增22.80元；石油焦企业利润 -50.47元，环比增34.29元；天然气企业利润 -183.11元，环比增5.57元 [227] 3.2.6需求 - Not provided separately in the doc 3.2.7库存 - 厂库库存335.51万吨，环比降9.92万吨，预计后续继续下降 [153]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Although the recent sentiment in the commodity market has improved, the rebound is mainly concentrated in the black and new energy - related industries. Methanol currently has high upstream profits and low downstream profits, lacking the logic for valuation repair, so its performance is dull. With the cooling of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the end of the squeeze on port paper goods, the spot liquidity is no longer tight, the spot price has fallen, and methanol has entered a weak and volatile state. The fundamentals of methanol have changed little, with high supply pressure due to high - profit - stimulated upstream production and weak downstream demand growth, making the overall situation of methanol weak. It is recommended to beware of the risk of correction [3][85] - Unilateral strategy: Weak and volatile, beware of correction risk; Hedge strategy: Wait and see [4][86] Summary by Directory 1. Spot Market - Methanol spot market prices declined this week. On Friday, the basis quotation was around 09 - 5 yuan/ton, and the basis quotation for paper goods in late August was around 09 + 30 yuan/ton [8] 2. Basis and Spread - **Basis Quotation**: The methanol basis quotation fluctuated weakly this week, and the basis quotation for paper goods in late August was around 09 + 35 yuan/ton [18] - **Regional Basis**: The coastal basis of methanol fluctuated this week, and the inland basis also fluctuated. The inland market price and the market price in the northwest region fluctuated this week [25][30] - **Regional Spread**: The spread between East China and inland regions of methanol fluctuated weakly [42] - **Near - and Far - Month Spread**: It is recommended to wait and see for the spread for now [50] - **PP - 3MA Spread**: The PP - 3MA spread rebounded oscillatingly this week. The strategy of going long on PP and short on MA can be considered for a small - scale holding [56] 3. Industrial Chain Profits - **Methanol Production**: There are many new overhaul devices, and the methanol operating rate has weakened slightly. Many overhaul devices have resumed production, and the methanol output has started to increase [62][66] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rate of dimethyl ether fluctuated weakly, the operating rate of formaldehyde fluctuated, and the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins in the northwest region oscillated at a high level [73] - **MTO**: This week, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins plants oscillated, and the MTO profit rebounded significantly [76] 4. Market Expectation - Methanol will be in a weak and volatile state, and it is necessary to beware of the risk of correction. The unilateral strategy is weak and volatile, beware of correction risk; the hedge strategy is to wait and see [3][4][85][86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The emotional premium brought by geopolitical conflicts in the polypropylene market is starting to decrease, and there is a risk of price correction. Production profits are expected to continue to weaken, and one should be cautious of the callback risk. It is recommended to close the long - PP short - MA spread strategy and consider buying put options and selling call options [1][7][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions - Production: This week's production was less than expected due to more newly added maintenance devices. In the next two weeks, device maintenance will decrease, and production may increase slightly. The maintenance loss this week was 16.77 million tons, up 0.98 million tons from last week, and is expected to be zero in the next two weeks. - Supply and demand: The import and export volumes were in line with expectations. The apparent demand decreased by 1.71 million tons this week, and it is expected to be around 81 million tons next week according to seasonality. The inventory increased slightly this week and is expected to continue to increase slightly next week, mainly due to relatively weak apparent demand [6]. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply - Production: This week's national production was 77.01 million tons, 0.36 million tons less than last week. In the next two weeks, it is expected to reach 78.41 million tons and 78.50 million tons respectively. - Maintenance: There are many newly added maintenance devices this week, resulting in less production than expected. In the next two weeks, device maintenance will decrease, and production may increase slightly [6]. 3.3 Polypropylene Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: The national production this week was 77.01 million tons, with an import volume of 7.5 million tons and an export volume of 3.75 million tons. - Demand: The apparent demand this week was 79.48 million tons, 1.71 million tons less than last week. - Inventory: The total inventory increased by 1.28 million tons this week, and is expected to reach 80.53 million tons and 81.36 million tons in the next two weeks respectively. The upstream inventory increased, mainly due to relatively weak apparent demand [6]. 3.4 Polypropylene Upstream Raw Material Situation - Raw materials: The prices of crude oil, coal, and propane fluctuated this week. The cost of oil - based PP increased by 22.38 yuan/ton, the cost of coal - based PP remained unchanged, and the cost of propane - dehydrogenated PP increased by 88.41 yuan/ton. - Cost: The cost side fluctuated strongly this week, and the emotional premium brought by geopolitical conflicts began to decrease. It is expected to fluctuate next week [7]. 3.5 Polypropylene Cost and Profit - Cost: The cost of oil - based PP, coal - based PP, propane - dehydrogenated PP, and externally purchased methanol - based PP all changed to varying degrees this week. - Profit: The comprehensive profit of the oil - chemical end decreased by 110 yuan/ton, and the production profit is expected to continue to weaken. The import profit is still inverted [7]. 3.6 Polypropylene Price and Spread - Basis: The basis showed an overall weakening trend this week, with limited basis trading opportunities. - Inter - month spread: The inter - month spread fluctuated weakly this week. - Variety spread: The spread between pellets and powders was too narrow, which had a certain supporting effect on the pellet price. The long - PP short - MA spread strategy has been recommended to close the position [9]. 3.7 Polypropylene Upstream, Mid - stream, and Downstream Views and Strategies - Upstream: Although upstream maintenance is gradually entering the peak period, the overall supply is still relatively sufficient, and the main idea is to actively sell goods. - Mid - stream: The mid - stream sales situation has slightly deteriorated, and the demand for speculative inventory in the early stage is still being digested, resulting in a short - term decline in transactions. - Downstream: The downstream replenishment willingness has decreased. After the price correction, the downstream's willingness to purchase goods has decreased significantly. - Strategy: Close the long - PP short - MA spread strategy, be cautious of the callback risk, and consider buying put options and selling call options [11].

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