Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes expanding domestic demand as the top priority for 2026, focusing on boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market from both supply and demand sides [10][11] - The monetary policy is expected to maintain a supportive tone, with continued implementation of moderate easing measures to lower financing costs and support key sectors of the economy [10][11] - The Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start full island closure on December 18, 2025, with significant adjustments to tax policies, expanding the number of zero-tariff items [10] Group 2 - The report indicates a bearish outlook for various commodities, including methanol, glass, and cotton, while PTA and soybean oil show a bullish trend [5][3] - The steel market is experiencing weak demand, with new housing sales declining significantly and construction projects facing funding pressures, leading to a decrease in overall demand for building materials [19][20] - The iron ore and coke prices are expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and low profit margins for steel mills, with a potential for further price declines [20][22] Group 3 - The report highlights a significant increase in foreign long-term capital inflows into the Chinese stock market, contrasting with the outflows seen in 2024, indicating a positive sentiment towards Chinese assets [11] - The automotive industry is undergoing a major restructuring, with Ford shifting focus from electric vehicles to fuel and hybrid vehicles, reflecting broader trends in the sector [13] - The lithium market is expected to see limited price declines due to strong demand, despite some signs of weakening fundamentals [28][29] Group 4 - The agricultural sector is facing mixed signals, with cotton supply pressures and expectations of reduced planting areas, while sugar prices are under pressure from new sugar supply [33][34] - The egg market is expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and limited demand, although there are signs of potential recovery as the holiday season approaches [39][40] - The apple market is experiencing slow sales and high prices, with expectations of continued weak demand due to competition from other fruits [36] Group 5 - The oil market is facing downward pressure due to oversupply and geopolitical factors, with prices expected to remain volatile [40][41] - The rubber market is stable with no significant supply-demand imbalances, while synthetic rubber prices are influenced by raw material costs and cautious purchasing behavior [43][44] - The caustic soda market is showing signs of strength due to favorable market conditions, although overall demand remains weak [45]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic move for economic stability and security, highlighting the need for policies that support consumption growth [10] - Recent economic data indicates a mixed performance, with industrial output and service sector growth showing positive trends, while fixed asset investment has declined [10] - The report outlines the challenges in the real estate sector, with significant declines in investment and housing prices, indicating a need for policy intervention [10] Macro Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a year-on-year increase of 4.8% in industrial added value and a 4.2% increase in the service production index for November [10] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment growing by 1.9% and real estate development investment dropping by 15.9% [10] - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in November, reflecting ongoing labor market challenges [10] Energy Sector - The report highlights the goal of adding over 200 million kilowatts of wind and solar power capacity in 2026, indicating a strong push towards renewable energy [11] - The energy sector is expected to see record high oil and gas production in 2025, with a 14% increase in total power generation capacity [11] Commodity Market Trends - The report notes a bearish trend in various commodities, including cotton and sugar, while some agricultural products like soybeans and eggs show bullish tendencies [3][5] - Steel prices are expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and low demand, with a significant drop in new housing starts impacting construction materials [17][18] - The report indicates that the coal and coke market may experience fluctuations due to production constraints and seasonal demand changes [20][21] Agricultural Products - Cotton prices are projected to rebound due to supply constraints and high production costs, despite a mixed outlook from the USDA on global cotton production [32][33] - Sugar prices are under pressure from new supply entering the market, with expectations of a global surplus in sugar production [34][35] - The egg market is facing challenges with high inventory levels and limited price increases, although seasonal demand may provide some support [37][38] Metals and Materials - Zinc inventories have decreased, but prices are expected to face downward pressure due to weak downstream demand [25][26] - The report suggests that the aluminum market may remain under pressure due to high production costs and fluctuating demand [27] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to stabilize despite some signs of weakening demand, with strong long-term growth prospects in the lithium market [28][29] Overall Market Sentiment - The report indicates a cautious market sentiment, with mixed signals from economic data and commodity prices, suggesting a potential for volatility in the near term [14][15] - Investors are advised to monitor macroeconomic indicators closely, as they may influence market trends and investment strategies moving forward [15][16]

晨会纪要 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 12 月 15 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | --- | --- | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | | [Table_QuotePic] | 中泰微投研小程序 | | [Table_Report] | 中泰期货公众号 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | 偏空 | 農荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | 들 = | 玉米淀粉 | 菜粕 | | 郑棉 | 玻璃 | 豆粕 | | 护金 | 橡胶 | 菜油 | | 沪铝 | 铁矿石 | 白糖 | | 沪铝 | 聚丙烯 | 直一 | | 棕櫚油 | PVC | 焦炭 | | 玉米 | 甲醇 | 沥青 | | | 塑料 | | | | PTA | | | | 鸡蛋 | | | | 螺纹钢 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PVC, the upstream is suffering severe losses with the price slightly weakening and comprehensive profit deteriorating, which may lead to potential production cuts. The downstream has a weak operating rate, and the trading volume is mainly concentrated on low - price point - price orders. The mid - stream traders are cautious, with a slight increase in the sentiment of bottom - fishing. The export volume is stable, and the inventory situation is complex, with some signs of de - stocking expected based on current production and apparent demand [6][9][10]. - For caustic soda, the overall production is at a high level, with a small increase in production this week. The inventory is slightly reduced this week, but it is estimated to accumulate slightly next week. The price is weakening, and the profit of the chlor - alkali complex is deteriorating. Traders are cautious, and the downstream demand is relatively stable [100][101][103]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. PVC 1.1 Supply - This week's total PVC production is 48.91 tons, a slight decrease from last week. The ethylene - based production is 14.53 tons, and the calcium - carbide - based production is 34.38 tons. Next week, as some maintenance devices resume production, the production is expected to increase slightly. The import volume remains stable at 1.50 tons per week, and the export volume is 5.75 tons per week, but the export signing volume has slightly declined this week [6]. - There are multiple PVC production devices under maintenance or shut - down, including Shandong Dongyue, Wuhai Chemical, etc. Some devices are expected to resume production in the near future, such as Zhengyang Development's device which is expected to resume on December 13, 2025 [13]. 1.2 Demand - This week's apparent PVC demand is 44.00 tons, slightly lower than expected. The expected apparent demand for next week is 47.63 tons. The demand has some seasonal increments in December, but the weekly apparent demand tracking is worse than expected [6]. 1.3 Price and Basis - The PVC spot price has slightly weakened this week. The basis of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China, South China, and Shandong has strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread has also strengthened [9]. 1.4 Profit - The production profit of calcium - carbide in Shaanxi has increased by 50 yuan/ton, while the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali and the profit of PVC production in Northwest China have continued to deteriorate. The export profit has slightly improved [9]. 1.5 Inventory - This week, the old - sample inventory has increased by 0.66 tons, and if calculated based on the current production and apparent demand, it is expected to slightly reduce inventory next week. The inventory of mid - stream traders has decreased by 1.19 tons, while the new - sample inventory has increased by 0.04 tons. The upstream inventory has increased by 1.85 tons [6]. 2. Caustic Soda 2.1 Supply - This week's total caustic soda production is 84.85 tons, a slight increase from last week. Next week, the production is expected to remain high. The import volume is stable at 0.02 tons per week, and the export volume is 7.30 tons per week [101]. 2.2 Demand - This week's apparent demand for caustic soda is 79.87 tons, higher than last week. Next week, the apparent demand is estimated to be around 77.53 tons based on historical data [101]. 2.3 Price and Basis - The price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong has weakened to 675 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda has generally weakened, and the spread between different contracts shows different trends [7][103]. 2.4 Profit - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong has decreased by 145 yuan/ton, and the profit of supporting PVC - type enterprises has continued to deteriorate [103]. 2.5 Inventory - This week, the national caustic soda inventory has slightly decreased, but it is estimated to accumulate slightly next week based on static data. The liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong has decreased by 4.77 tons, and the flake caustic soda inventory has slightly increased [101].

Report Summary 1. Report Title - Black Supply Weekly Report - Ferroalloys [1] 2. Report Date and Analyst Information - Date: December 12, 2025 - Analyst: Dong Xueshan from Zhongtai Futures Research Institute - Qualification Number: F3075616, Trading Consultation Certificate Number: Z0018025 [2] 3. Key Data - Weekly Production and Changes Silicon Manganese - **National**: Weekly production is 18.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1295 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15.04% [3] - **Inner Mongolia**: Weekly production is 9.69 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 140 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.40% [3] - **Ningxia**: Weekly production is 4.33 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1400 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.43% [3] - **Guangxi**: Weekly production is 0.92 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 245 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.39% [3] - **Guizhou**: Weekly production is 1.21 million tons, with no week - on - week change, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 16.56% [3] - **Yunnan**: Weekly production is 0.68 million tons, with no week - on - week change, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.21% [3] - **Other regions**: Weekly production is 2.09 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 24.11% [3] Silicon Iron - **National**: Weekly production is 10.63 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2520 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.95% [3] - **Inner Mongolia**: Weekly production is 3.61 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1925 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.91% [3] - **Ningxia**: Weekly production is 2.72 million tons, with no week - on - week change, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.21% [3] - **Shaanxi**: Weekly production is 1.93 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 350 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.14% [3] - **Qinghai**: Weekly production is 1.29 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 945 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 13.49% [3] - **Gansu**: Weekly production is 0.98 million tons, with no week - on - week change, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.70% [3] - **Other regions**: Weekly production is 0.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.00% [3] 4. Data Explanation - The update date of Ganglian terminal data is every Thursday, and the data display date is Friday of the current week - Data sources: Mysteel; compiled by Zhongtai Futures [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different sectors and varieties having their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, in the macro - financial sector, A - shares are in a wide - range shock, and the bond market sentiment is gradually improving; in the black sector, steel and ore prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, and coal and coke prices may fluctuate weakly; in the agricultural product sector, different varieties have different supply - demand situations and price trends [11][14][28]. Summary by Directory Macro Information - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and determines 8 key tasks, including promoting investment to stop falling and stabilizing, and stabilizing the real estate market [6]. - Mexico will impose 5% - 50% tariffs on some products from China and other Asian countries starting next year, and China has launched a trade - investment barrier investigation [6]. - There are rumors about the clearance of quantitative trading equipment in exchanges, but no specific notice has been received [7]. - The storage chip industry is facing a severe supply - demand imbalance, with the shortage of DRAM expected to last until the first quarter of 2027, and the demand for DDR memory growing by 20.7% [7]. - Morgan Chase successfully issued a US commercial paper using blockchain, with payments in USDC [7]. - The key indicator for the "ChatGPT moment" of embodied intelligence is the "double 80%", which may occur in the next one or two years [7]. - OpenAI launches the GPT - 5.2 model, which is expected to bring more economic value. It will be launched in ChatGPT for paid users [8]. - The US trade deficit in September narrowed by nearly 11% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level since June 2020 [8]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 44,000, and the number of continued jobless claims decreased by the largest amount in four years [8]. - The EU is considering postponing the plan to ban the sale of new fuel - powered cars until 2040 and allowing plug - in hybrid and extended - range electric vehicles to be sold for up to five more years [8]. - Although the yield of Japanese 10 - year government bonds has soared, the Bank of Japan has no intention of intervening for now [9]. Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to think in terms of wide - range shocks. A - shares are in a downward shock, and the technical weakness of broad - based indexes has been repaired. Attention should be paid to possible adjustments after the realization of positive news [11]. Treasury Bond Futures - If the consensus on the decline of the capital - level center is reached, medium - and short - term bonds may stabilize first and then the rebound may spread to ultra - long - term bonds. The bond market sentiment is gradually improving [13]. Black Steel and Ore - From a policy perspective, the 2026 Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are in line with market expectations without new policies. From a fundamental perspective, the demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for coils is fair. The supply of steel mills may decline, and the inventory is at a high level. Steel and ore prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and bearish in the medium - to - long - term [14][15]. Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate weakly in the short - term. The supply of coking coal is expected to shrink, and the demand for raw materials from steel mills is weakening. The potential negative feedback risk still restricts the prices in the short - term [17][18]. Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to take a long - at - low approach; for manganese silicon, it is recommended to take a short - at - high approach in the medium - term [19]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory is decreasing. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and aggressive investors can short at high prices [22]. Lead - The social inventory of lead is stable. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to hold short positions [23][24]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, with a limited decline space [25]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon may have some valuation repair opportunities, and polysilicon prices are expected to be strong [26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The supply of cotton is temporarily loose, but the demand is expected to improve. It is suitable to buy at low prices after adjustment [28]. Sugar - The supply - demand situation of domestic sugar is expected to be bearish. Sugar prices are in a downward shock, and it is advisable to wait and see [30]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs is weak, dragging down the near - month contracts. The far - month contracts may be strong due to the expected decline in inventory, but the current valuation is high, so it is advisable to wait and see [32]. Apples - Apple prices are expected to fluctuate [34]. Corn - It is recommended to short the far - month contracts at high prices and pay attention to the changes in the spot price in the production area [35]. Red Dates - It is recommended to buy the far - month contracts at low prices [36]. Live Pigs - The spot market of live pigs shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions in the near - month contracts [37]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The rebound of crude oil prices lacks sustainable driving force, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [39]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil prices and is mainly affected by geopolitical and macro - factors [40]. Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and weak demand. It is recommended to think in terms of a weak - shock approach and short after the price rebounds [41]. Rubber - The price of rubber is expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to wait and see, and one can sell call options at high prices [42]. Methanol - The near - month contracts of methanol are expected to be in a weak - shock state, and the far - month contracts can be considered for a long - position after smooth inventory reduction [43]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is slightly stable. It is recommended to take a short - term shock approach, avoid long positions in the near - month contracts, and wait and see for long positions in the main contracts [45][46]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt is expected to have a larger fluctuation range, and the future focus is on the price bottom after winter storage [47]. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is expected to continue to be under pressure. One can pay attention to the opportunity of going long on TA and short on PF [48]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The price of LPG is expected to decline, as the downstream chemical industry's operating rate may fall [49]. Pulp - The fundamentals of pulp are improving slightly. It is advisable to wait and see during the day, and one can go long after a callback or sell out - of - the - money call options for hedging [50][51]. Logs - The fundamentals of logs are weakly bearish, and the spot price is under pressure. The disk is expected to be under pressure [52]. Urea - The spot market of urea is expected to be stable and weak. It is recommended to take a shock approach [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, various sectors in the market show different trends and investment opportunities under the influence of macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical factors. The macro - economic environment is complex, with the Fed's monetary policy adjustments, China's economic data changes, and geopolitical events all affecting the market [5][6]. - Different commodities have different outlooks. For example, some are expected to be in a wide - range shock, some may continue to decline, while others may have short - term rebounds or long - term upward trends depending on their specific supply - demand and cost situations [12][14][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third time this year, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%–3.75%. It will start a short - term Treasury purchase program of about $40 billion per month from December 12. The Fed also raised its GDP growth expectations for 2025 - 2028 [5]. - China's November CPI rose 0.7% year - on - year, hitting the highest since March 2024, and the core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year. The PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month but widened its year - on - year decline to 2.2% [6]. - The IMF expects China's economy to grow 5.0% and 4.5% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, raising the forecasts by 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points compared to October [7]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market showed a trend of hitting bottom and rebounding. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.23% at 3900.5 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.29%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.02%. The market turnover was 1.79 trillion yuan. Adopt a wide - range shock strategy and pay attention to the coordination of volume and price [12]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - If there is a consensus on the decline of the capital - level center, short - and medium - term bonds may stabilize and rebound first, while the ultra - long - term bonds are neutral in the short term and still need caution in the medium term [13]. 3.3 Black Commodities 3.3.1 Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may be in a short - term weak shock. In the future, pay attention to the production of coal mines, safety supervision, and the change of downstream molten iron output. Due to factors such as the approaching end of the year and environmental protection, coal production is expected to shrink, but the weakening demand for steel in the off - season restricts the price increase [14]. 3.3.2 Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to take a long - at - low strategy; for silicomanganese, a short - at - high strategy in the medium term. The fundamentals of the two have limited changes recently, and pay attention to the price changes of raw materials and the impact of steel mill procurement [15]. 3.3.3 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes. The soda ash industry has a supply recovery but weak upstream production willingness, while the glass industry has an increasing expectation of cold repair of production lines [16]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to be in a wide - range shock. As of December 8, the domestic zinc inventory decreased. With frequent macro - positive news and an open export window, zinc prices may be supported, but weak downstream consumption drags them down. Aggressive investors can short at high prices [16]. 3.4.2 Lead - Short - term lead prices may remain in shock, and there is a risk of the center of operation moving down. As of December 8, the lead inventory decreased, but the factory inventory of primary lead enterprises increased. It is recommended to hold short positions [18]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, it is mainly in a wide - range shock. Although the demand is slightly weakening, the long - term demand is good, and the supply is increasing, limiting the short - term price increase space [20]. 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon - In the short term, it is difficult to see production cuts. Pay attention to the impact of environmental protection in Xinjiang and coking coal price fluctuations at the end of the month. The subsequent focus may shift to the expectation of polysilicon production cuts [22]. 3.4.5 Polysilicon - The spot price is expected to be strong, and the policy expectation has a strong impact on the price. Pay attention to the follow - up actions of the platform company [23]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - There is a short - term supply surplus, but the demand expectation is improving. The high - cost factor supports the Zhengzhou cotton price. Look for opportunities to go long at low prices during the short - term adjustment [25]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is expected to be bearish. New sugar listing pressure weighs on prices, but cost support limits the decline. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [27]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Before the festival, the spot price increase may be limited. The near - month contracts are dragged down by the weak spot, while the far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a possible decline in inventory but are currently over - valued. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [29]. 3.5.4 Apples - The price is expected to be in shock. The trading in the production area has slowed down, and the sales in the sales area are affected by the listing of citrus fruits [31]. 3.5.5 Corn - Pay attention to the change of spot prices and short at high prices. The current upward trend of corn is due to the "supply - demand mismatch," which is gradually alleviating [32]. 3.5.6 Red Dates - Consider going long on far - month contracts at low prices. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable and strong, and the futures price is in shock [33]. 3.5.7 Pigs - The spot market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions in near - month contracts and pay attention to risk control [34]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - The current rebound of crude oil lacks sustainable driving force. Pay attention to the US sanctions on Venezuela. The price is mainly in shock [37]. 3.6.2 Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure. Adopt a weak - shock strategy and wait for the price to rebound before shorting [38]. 3.6.3 Rubber - The ru - nr spread may weaken from mid - December to January. The price is expected to be in shock. Pay attention to the raw material supply in the production area and the domestic demand [39]. 3.6.4 Synthetic Rubber - It is expected to continue to be in shock in the short term. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the price of butadiene and downstream procurement sentiment [40]. 3.6.5 Methanol - The near - month contracts are expected to be in a weak - shock trend, and it is not recommended to be overly bearish. The far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after smooth inventory reduction [41]. 3.6.6 Caustic Soda - Adopt a short - term shock strategy. Avoid going long on near - month contracts and take profit on short positions. Wait and see for long positions in the main contract [43]. 3.6.7 Asphalt - The price fluctuation of asphalt is expected to increase. Pay attention to the price bottom after winter storage. The geopolitical situation and demand changes are the main influencing factors [45]. 3.6.8 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is in shock. Consider a strategy of going long on PTA and short on PF. Different products in the chain have different supply - demand and cost situations [47]. 3.6.9 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The LPG price is expected to change from high - level shock to decline. The previous upward - driving logic has been fulfilled, and pay attention to the decline of downstream chemical开工 rates [48]. 3.6.10 Pulp - After the positive news is exhausted, the pulp sentiment declines. The price is in shock. Pay attention to port inventory, warehouse receipt removal speed, and downstream procurement enthusiasm [49]. 3.6.11 Logs - The log market is in a weak - shock state. The spot price is under pressure, and the inventory is expected to increase. The basis provides some support, but the short - term price is still under pressure [50]. 3.6.12 Urea - The spot market is expected to be stable and weak. Adopt a shock strategy. The futures price is affected by spot transactions and the price of coking coal [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The industrial chain shows stable spot prices and rigid demand transactions. The price adjustment on December 1st has not been implemented with actual orders. This week, the production of double - offset paper was 20.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons or 0.5% from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate was 53.0%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period. The inventory of double - offset paper production enterprises increased by 0.4% month - on - month. The offset paper market continues to have an oversupply situation, with high finished - product inventory still accumulating. The price increase has not been implemented, resulting in significant fundamental pressure and weakening market sentiment. However, considering the recent increase in raw material pulp prices, the cost of double - offset paper has some support, and the downside space is expected to be limited. Due to the large fundamental pressure and limited cost support, it is not recommended to short at low levels. If there is a rebound, the overall idea is to short on rallies or sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. Summary by Directory 1.胶版印刷纸综述 1.1 胶版印刷纸综述——供需库 - In terms of supply, the weekly domestic production of offset printing paper in the week of December 5, 2025, was 20.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous period, with a year - on - year increase of 1.4 million tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.21%. The capacity utilization rate was 53.0%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period and 5.5% from the same period last year. The monthly import volume in December 2025 was 1.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.02 million tons from the previous month and 0.83 million tons from the same period last year, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.98%. It is expected that the supply will increase slightly next week, reaching about 21.0 million tons [6]. - In terms of demand, the weekly apparent demand was 20.0 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons from the previous period. The monthly export volume was 5.6 million tons, unchanged from the previous month but a decrease of 1.59 million tons from the same period last year, with a year - on - year decrease of 14.17%. Domestic demand was 84.05 million tons, unchanged from the previous month but an increase of 4.73 million tons from the same period last year, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6.11%. The demand is expected to remain stable during the off - season [6]. - In terms of inventory, the enterprise inventory was 137.1 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons from the previous period and 27.1 million tons from the same period last year. The social inventory was 54.0 million tons, unchanged from the previous period but a decrease of 4.7 million tons from the same period last year. The total spot inventory was 191.1 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons from the previous period and 22.4 million tons from the same period last year. Due to the increase in production and stable demand, the inventory is expected to accumulate [6]. 1.2 胶版印刷纸综述——价格 - The ex - factory delivered prices of various brands such as Galaxy Ruyi, Huatai Mudan, etc., remained unchanged from the previous period but decreased compared to the same period last year. The market self - pick - up prices also showed a similar trend. The quoted price on December 1st to increase by 100 yuan/ton was not actually implemented. The offset paper market continues to have an oversupply situation, with high finished - product inventory still accumulating. The price increase has not been implemented, resulting in significant fundamental pressure and weakening market sentiment. However, considering the recent increase in raw material pulp prices, the cost of double - offset paper has some support, and the downside space is expected to be limited. The futures prices of OP2601 and OP2603 are expected to fluctuate or fluctuate strongly [8]. 1.3 胶版印刷纸综述——价差与基差 - The differences between ex - factory and self - pick - up prices of some brands remained stable or increased compared to the same period last year. The futures price difference between OP2601 and OP2603 is expected to remain stable. The basis of some brands is expected to weaken. Seasonally, January is a small peak season for spring teaching - aid textbook tenders, and March is the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" [10]. 1.3 胶版印刷纸综述——成本与利润 - Raw material prices have increased, leading to an increase in the cost of double - offset paper. In the off - season, it is difficult for the finished - product price to rise, so the production profit is expected to shrink. The profit of self - used pulp decreased from 110 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton, and the profits of low - cost and high - cost production also decreased [12]. 2.胶版印刷纸平衡表解析 - The monthly balance sheet shows the supply, demand, and inventory changes of double - offset paper from 2024 to 2025. In 2025, the cumulative import volume decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative production also decreased year - on - year. The cumulative total supply and demand both decreased year - on - year. The inventory showed an increasing trend in general, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [15]. 3.胶版印刷纸供需解析 3.1 供应——投产情况 - In 2025, a total of 140 million tons of cultural paper production capacity has been put into operation, and 225 million tons is expected to be put into operation, mostly in the third quarter, including the resumption of Chenming's production capacity. In 2026, 120 - 140 million tons of production capacity is planned to be put into operation [17]. 3.2 需求 - No detailed content provided in the given text 3.3 库存 - No detailed content provided in the given text 3.4 进出口 - No detailed content provided in the given text 4.胶版印刷纸成本利润 4.1 胶版印刷纸原料成本 - No detailed content provided in the given text 4.2 胶版印刷纸利润 - No detailed content provided in the given text 5.胶版印刷纸价格、价差解析 5.1 胶版印刷纸现货报价 - No detailed content provided in the given text 5.2 胶版印刷纸期现基差 - No detailed content provided in the given text 5.3 OP主力合约季节图及月间价差 - No detailed content provided in the given text

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, the market trends of various futures products are judged, including trend short, oscillating short - biased, oscillating, oscillating long - biased, and trend long [3]. - Based on quantitative indicators, the market trends of futures products are classified into short - biased, oscillating, and long - biased [5]. - The macro - economic situation involves international and domestic policies, corporate events, and economic data, which have an impact on the financial and commodity markets [9][10][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - WEN Technology proposes to hold constructive talks on the dispute over Nexperia to seek a long - term solution [9]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasizes China's economic confidence and development prospects [9]. - Trump may approve the sale of NVIDIA H200 AI chips to China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responds [9]. - China and Russia conduct the 10th joint air strategic cruise [9]. - A polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is established [10]. - The Fed may cut interest rates, and market expectations for future interest rate cuts vary [10][13]. - ADP data shows an increase in US private employment, and JOLTS job vacancies exceed expectations [10]. - Zelensky is ready for elections in Ukraine and requests assistance [10]. - The Bank of Japan will gradually adjust monetary policy [11]. - The current high price of iron ore is due to capital games and speculation, and the price may be suppressed by inventory and demand [11]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a wide - range oscillating strategy. The market is affected by policies, economic data, and interest rate expectations. The short - term market is expected to continue oscillating and recovering [13][14]. Treasury Bond Futures - If the consensus on the decline of the capital - market center is reached, short - and medium - term bonds may stabilize and rebound, while ultra - long - term bonds are still cautious in the medium term. The market is affected by capital supply, policies, and institutional behavior [15]. Black Steel and Iron Ore - Policy focuses on quality and efficiency, and the market is affected by demand, supply, and inventory. Steel prices are likely to remain weak [15][16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with potential for a phased rebound in the far - month 05 contract, but the rebound space is limited [19]. Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, consider a long - biased strategy at low prices; for silicomanganese, a short - biased strategy at high prices is recommended [20]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, take a wait - and - see approach; for glass, consider a long - position after the market sentiment stabilizes [21]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate widely. Aggressive investors can short at high prices [23]. Lead - It is recommended to hold previous short positions. Lead prices may oscillate in the short term, and there is a risk of a further decline in the operating center [25][26]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, it will oscillate widely, and the long - term demand is positive for prices [27]. Industrial Silicon - In the short term, it is difficult to see a reduction in production in the north. Pay attention to environmental protection and cost factors, and the market may shift to the game of polysilicon production reduction expectations [28]. Polysilicon - Pay attention to the actions of the platform company. The spot price is expected to remain strong, and the futures price is expected to be strong under policy expectations [29]. Agricultural Products Cotton - There is short - term supply pressure, and the price is expected to bottom out. Look for low - buying opportunities [30][31]. Sugar - The supply - demand situation is bearish. The price is expected to oscillate and decline. It is advisable to wait and see or short in the short term [32][33]. Eggs - Near - month contracts are under pressure, and far - month contracts are supported by supply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [34][35]. Apples - The price is expected to oscillate [36]. Corn - Pay attention to spot price changes and short at high prices [37][38]. Red Dates - Buy far - month contracts at low prices [39]. Live Pigs - The spot market has strong supply and weak demand. Hold short positions in near - month contracts and control risks [39][40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The supply is in excess, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [42][43]. Fuel Oil - The price will follow the oil price, and the short - term focus is on geopolitical factors and the Fed's interest - rate decision [44]. Plastics - The supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short after the price rebounds [45]. Rubber - The ru - nr spread may weaken from mid - December to January. Consider selling call options at high prices [46]. Synthetic Rubber - The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Wait and see [47]. Methanol - Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, and far - month contracts can be considered for long - positions after inventory reduction [48][49]. Caustic Soda - Keep a short - term oscillating strategy. Observe investment opportunities in far - month contracts after contract roll - over [50]. Asphalt - The demand is approaching the end, and the price is expected to fluctuate more. The focus is on the post - winter - storage price bottom [50]. Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term price is affected by costs. Pay attention to the spread opportunities between PTA and PF and the reverse spread of ethylene glycol [52]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price is expected to change from high - level oscillation to a decline [53]. Pulp - After the positive news fades, the price may oscillate weakly. Short the 03 contract or sell call options at high prices [55]. Logs - The price is under pressure in the short term, and the basis provides some support [56]. Urea - The spot market is expected to remain stable and weak. Keep an oscillating strategy [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, various commodities are classified into trend - bearish, oscillating - bearish, oscillating, oscillating - bullish, and trend - bullish categories [5]. - Based on quantitative indicators, commodities are divided into bearish, oscillating, and bullish groups [9]. - The macro - economic situation shows that China's trade data is good, and policies are expected to be more proactive and moderately loose. The global economic situation also has an impact on the market [11]. - Different trading strategies are proposed for various commodities in different sectors such as macro - finance, black, non - ferrous, agricultural products, and energy - chemical industries [16][20][27]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Information - The Politburo meeting emphasizes a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on domestic demand [11]. - China's trade data from January to November 2025 shows a 3.6% year - on - year increase in total import and export value, with exports up 6.2% and imports up 0.2%. In November, the growth rate rebounded [11]. - Experts expect China to continue an expansionary fiscal policy in 2026, with a fiscal deficit rate no lower than 4% and an increase in new government debt [11]. - There are discussions about "relaxing restrictions on brokers", and the industry's leverage will be kept within a reasonable range [12]. - The November 2025 passenger car market retail shows a decline in fuel - powered cars and an increase in new energy vehicles. The 2026 car market may face great pressure [12]. - The global storage market is expected to enter a "triple super - cycle" in 2026, with a 98% year - on - year growth in market size [12]. - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates, and the market is highly concerned about the Fed's meeting [12]. - Trump plans to sign an AI regulatory order and launch an agricultural aid program. The US Labor Bureau will delay the release of October PPI data [13]. - Japan's Q3 GDP is revised downwards, and the selling of Japanese government bonds is accelerating [13][14]. 2. Macro - Finance 2.1 Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to adopt a wide - range oscillating approach. A - shares rose with increased trading volume, and various sectors showed different performances. Policy factors and market data affect the market [16]. 2.2 Bond Futures - If the consensus on the decline of the capital - market center is reached, medium - and short - term bonds may stabilize and rebound, while ultra - long - term bonds are neutral in the short term and cautious in the medium term [18]. 3. Black 3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - Policy - wise, focus on the Central Economic Work Conference and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's deployment. Fundamentally, steel demand is weak in the building materials sector but better in the coil sector. Supply may decline, and inventory is high. The medium - to - long - term trend is bearish [20]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Supply may contract due to safety regulations, and demand is affected by the steel industry's profit. There may be a rebound in the far - month 05 contract, but the space is limited [22]. 3.3 Ferroalloys - For silicon iron, a bullish view is maintained; for manganese silicon, a bearish view is held in the medium term. The market is affected by ore supply and production capacity [23]. 3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, a wait - and - see approach is recommended; for glass, a long - position can be considered after the market stabilizes. Supply and demand factors affect the prices [25]. 4. Non - Ferrous and New Materials 4.1 Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate widely. Domestic inventory is decreasing, and factors such as production reduction and macro - policies affect the price [27][28]. 4.2 Lead - Lead prices may stop falling and rise in December. Supply is tight in some areas, and demand from battery factories may increase [29][30]. 4.3 Lithium Carbonate - Prices may oscillate widely in the short term. Supply is increasing, but long - term demand is strong [31]. 4.4 Industrial Silicon - Affected by the new delivery brands of polysilicon, industrial silicon may adjust weakly. Downward space is limited, and short - term long - positions can be considered after an over - decline [32]. 4.5 Polysilicon - There may be a correction due to new delivery brands. Low - buying opportunities can be considered after the correction [33]. 5. Agricultural Products 5.1 Cotton - Short - term supply pressure is high, and demand is not yet strong. Low - buying opportunities can be sought [36]. 5.2 Sugar - Domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate downward. Supply is increasing, and cost provides some support [38]. 5.3 Eggs - Near - month contracts may oscillate. Far - month contracts may be supported by the expected decline in inventory but are under pressure due to high valuations [40]. 5.4 Apples - Prices are expected to oscillate. Sales are affected by the supply of other fruits [42]. 5.5 Corn - For the 03 contract, a short - position can be considered. The market is affected by supply - demand mismatch and inventory changes [43]. 5.6 Red Dates - A long - position can be considered for far - month contracts. Prices in production and sales areas are stable [44]. 5.7 Pigs - The spot market is bearish. Supply is increasing, and demand is not strong enough. Short - positions can be held for near - month contracts [45]. 6. Energy - Chemical 6.1 Crude Oil - Supply is in excess. The end of the conflict may lead to a decline in geopolitical premiums. Prices are expected to oscillate [47]. 6.2 Fuel Oil - Prices follow the trend of crude oil. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. The focus is on geopolitical factors [48]. 6.3 Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure and weak demand. A bearish - oscillating approach is recommended [49]. 6.4 Rubber - The ru - nr spread may weaken. Prices are expected to oscillate. Supply and demand are relatively balanced [50]. 6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. Cost and demand affect the market [52]. 6.6 Methanol - Near - month contracts may oscillate weakly, and far - month contracts can be considered for long - positions after de - stocking [53]. 6.7 Caustic Soda - A short - term oscillating approach is recommended. Spot prices are weak, and futures contracts are affected by inventory and demand [55]. 6.8 Asphalt - Demand is approaching the end - stage, and the focus is on the winter - storage price bottom. Prices are affected by crude oil and market expectations [56]. 6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - Terminal demand is weak. Opportunities in PTA - ethylene glycol spreads and ethylene glycol backwardation can be considered [57]. 6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Prices may turn weak after a high - level period. Supply and demand factors affect the market [58]. 6.11 Offset Printing Paper - A bearish approach is recommended. Supply is in excess, and cost provides some support [59]. 6.12 Pulp - Prices may oscillate weakly. Import volume is increasing, and spot trading is weak [60]. 6.13 Logs - The market is bearish. Inventory is expected to increase, and prices are under pressure [61]. 6.14 Urea - Spot prices may oscillate weakly. Futures prices are affected by spot trading and coal prices [62].