中泰期货红枣市场表现与基本面周度报告 姓名：梁作盼 期货从业资格号：F3048593 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0015589 联系电话： 17615857579 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 2025-09-28 本周观点 本页数据来源:Mysteel我的农产品 | 利多因素 | 1、调研区域部分产区减产；2、部分产区阴雨天气或影响红枣质量； | | --- | --- | | 利空因素 | 1、库存高位，市场供应充裕；2、9月份消费淡季；3、调研结果显示，大概率正常偏小年 | | 市 | | | 场 | | | 基 | 本周新疆灰枣主产区气温在10℃-28℃，枣树处于上糖期，从天气预警来看未见极端天气，关注上糖期降雨情况及枣果品质变化。销 | | 本 | | | 面 | 区市场到货少量日均到货3车左右，到货较少好货价格偏强运行，市场交投氛围一般。本周河北特级均价参考10.39元/公斤，一级均 | | 及 | 价9.50元/公斤，主流价格较上周持平。 | | 逻 | | | 辑 | | | 策 | 单边 短期观望 | | 略 | 月间 无 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the caustic soda futures showed a significant downward trend, with short - sellers actively increasing positions to push down the futures price, and there were stop - loss phenomena among long - sellers. The main reasons include weak spot prices, the non - decline of liquid chlorine prices contrary to expectations, and the continuous decline of alumina spot and futures prices. In the later stage, the caustic soda futures may be supported by the liquid chlorine price, especially during the National Day holiday. Therefore, the caustic soda futures should be treated with a volatile mindset [5]. Summary by Directory 01 Overview - **Supply**: In the period from September 19 - 25, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.5%, a 0.6% week - on - week increase. Northwest had new device production cuts and maintenance, while North China and East China had increased loads after device maintenance. Next week, except for the Southwest region, other six regions are expected to increase their loads, with an estimated capacity utilization rate of about 85.9% and a weekly output of about 845,700 tons [5]. - **Demand - Alumina**: China's alumina production was 1.855 million tons, a decline from last week's 1.861 million tons. Shandong's alumina production remained flat at 626,000 tons. The liquid caustic soda purchase price of large - scale alumina factories in Shandong dropped to 740 yuan/ton, with a 100% converted price of 2,313 yuan/ton. Alumina prices and production profits declined recently [5]. - **Demand - Viscose Staple Fiber**: China's viscose staple fiber production was 90,000 tons, a 30 - ton increase from last week. As of September 25, 2025, the total daily output of 20 domestic viscose staple fiber enterprises was around 12,960 tons. The physical inventory of domestic viscose staple fiber factories was 128,200 tons, a 50 - ton decrease from the previous period and a 32,000 - ton increase compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 33.26%. The downstream demand for viscose staple fiber was weak [5]. - **Demand - Printing and Dyeing**: As of September 25, 2025, the comprehensive startup rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66.15%, a 0.4% increase from the previous period. The average startup rate of printing and dyeing enterprises in Zhejiang was 66.25%, remaining flat compared to the previous data and a 1.25% increase year - on - year. The overall startup rate of dyeing factories in Zhejiang remained stable, with orders featuring "short, frequent, and fast" characteristics. Most dyeing factories planned to have a 2 - 3 - day holiday during the National Day [5]. - **Export**: In August, the export volume of liquid caustic soda was 213,500 tons, and the export volume of flake caustic soda was 66,800 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 391,200 tons (wet tons), a 3.4% week - on - week increase and a 26.26% year - on - year increase. The storage capacity ratio of domestic liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 20.78%, a 0.64% week - on - week increase [5]. - **Profit**: This Friday, the average price of Shandong liquid caustic soda was 2,500 yuan/ton, the average price of liquid chlorine was - 100 yuan/ton, and the chlor - alkali profit was 306 yuan/ton, at a historically low level. The decline in liquid caustic soda prices compressed the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [5]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a volatile mindset for single - side trading; no strategy for arbitrage and options [5]. 02 Price - The report presents price trends of Shandong chlor - alkali spot, flake caustic soda, export caustic soda, caustic soda futures, basis, inter - month spreads, raw salt, and coal, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [7][10][13][16] 03 Supply - **Caustic Soda Supply**: Data on China's weekly caustic soda production, caustic soda startup rate, caustic soda device loss volume, and cumulative caustic soda production are provided, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [20][21] - **Caustic Soda Inventory and Chlor - Alkali Profit**: Information on the liquid caustic soda inventory of Chinese sample enterprises, caustic soda futures warehouse receipts, and Shandong chlor - alkali enterprise profits is presented, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [23][24] - **Chlor - Alkali Device Maintenance Plan**: This week, many chlor - alkali devices have resumed operation after maintenance, and there are also some devices under maintenance. In the future, multiple enterprises have maintenance plans, including specific time and capacity information [26] 04 Demand - **Alumina Industry**: Data on China's alumina production, Shandong's alumina production, alumina profit, Shandong alumina enterprises' liquid caustic soda purchase price, and alumina inventory are provided, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [29][30][31][32] - **Textile Industry**: Information on viscose staple fiber capacity utilization rate, market price, factory inventory, inventory available days of viscose staple fiber in Chinese rayon yarn enterprises, textile enterprise weekly startup rate, order days, in - factory finished product inventory available days, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang region printing and dyeing factory startup rate is presented, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [34][35][37][38] - **Pulp and Paper Industry**: Data on pulp production, paper product production, and the inventory available days of paper products in upstream factories are provided, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [39][40] - **Export**: Data on China's monthly export volume of liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, cumulative export volume of caustic soda, and monthly export volume of caustic soda are presented, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [41][42]

2025 . 9 . 2 8 中泰期货研究所 ：郭庆 从业资格号：F3049926 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0016007 （数据更新时间截止至每周五23：59） 目 录 CONTEN T S 0 1 综述 0 2 价格 0 3 供应 0 4 需求 综述 01 | 产业链 | | | 2025年9月19日-9月 2025年9月26日-10 | 2025年10月3日-10 | 2025年10月10日-10月 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 25日 | 月2日 | 月9日 | 16日 | | | 供应 | 周度日均产量：万 | 20.02 | 20.00 | 20.14 | 19.57 | 上周新增4家企业停车，停车企业恢复3家，本周预计0家 企业计划检修，2家停车企业恢复生产(预估数据来自隆众 | | | 吨 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 资讯） | | | 农业需求 | 秋季小麦肥需求 | 秋季小麦肥需求 | 秋季小麦肥需求 | 秋季小麦肥需求 | 当前农业需求陆续释放 | | | | | | | | 202 ...

规避长假风险，郑糖低位震荡 中泰期货白糖市场周度报告 联系电话： 0531-81678626 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证 券大厦15、16层 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 姓名：陈 乔 从业资格号：F0310227 交易咨询从业证书号 ：Z0015805 2 0 2 5 -9 -2 8 本周国内外糖价整体情况汇总 | | | 上 周 | 本 周 | 环 比 | 下周预期 | 思 路 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ICE原糖主连 | 16 18 . | 16 35 . | 1 05% . | 震荡偏弱 | 国际糖价走势震荡 | | | ICE白糖主连 郑糖主连 | 456 3 . 5461 | 459 9 . 5478 | 0 79% . 0 31% | 震荡偏弱 震荡偏弱 | 承压运行 供给压 ， 力影响 | | | 巴西加工糖成本 (50%) | 5507 | 5604 | . 1 76% . | 震荡偏弱 | | | | 巴西加工糖成本 (15%) | 4327 | 4401 | 1 72% . | 震荡偏弱 | | ...

矿端扰动超预期，铜价偏强运行 沪铜周度报告·2025年9月28日 姓名：安冉 从业资格号：F3049294 交易咨询证书号：Z0017020 姓名：王海聪 从业资格号：F03101206 交易咨询证书号：Z0022465 联系人：陈天敏 从业资格号：F03134700 目 录 01 周度综述：宏观/周度数据/多空逻辑/风险提示 02 铜产业链解析：价格/价差/成本/利润/供给/需求/库存 CONTENTS 资金持仓：外盘持仓CFTC/LME 03 Part 01 周度综述 | | 项目 | | | | | 周度数据 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 上期 | 当期 | 环比 | 环比率 | 综述 | | | 铜精矿现货TC（美元/ 吨 ） | -40.8 | -40.36 | 0.44 | 1.08% | Grasberg生产事故扰动市场 但因印尼已实施出口禁令 对国内铜矿供应影响有限 ， ， ， 现货TC小幅反弹 后续重点关注对11月长单谈判的影响 ， 。 | | 供给端 | 精废价差（元/吨） | 1917 | 2337 | 420 | ...

中泰期货苹果市场表现与基本面周度报告 姓名：梁作盼 期货从业资格号：F3048593 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0015589 联系电话： 17615857579 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 2025-09-28 本周观点 本页数据来源:卓创资讯 中泰期货整理 | 利多因素 | 1、新季苹果个头同比偏小；2、新季苹果价格有高开预期；4、山东产区晚熟富士质量或偏差（果锈偏多）；4、西部部分产区质量偏差 | | --- | --- | | 利空因素 | 1、新季苹果产量同比去年基本持平；2、高开秤价不利于消费；3、市场替代水果价格偏低 | | 市 | 产区方面：山东红将军进入尾声，西部采青逐步上市，价格偏高。晚熟富士方面，9月下旬，东部、西部产区逐步进入大量摘袋阶段。 | | 场 | 据调研，山东产区晚熟富士果锈较前期预期偏多，水裂纹发生率暂时偏低；西部产区果面洁净度稍有偏差，但仍在正常年份水平，局 | | 基 | | | 本 | 部产区水裂纹发生严重（水裂纹现象或是前期干旱，9月份阴雨天气偏多导致）。据天气预报，部分苹果产区有阴雨天气，需重点关 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Weekly lithium carbonate fluctuated without an obvious trend. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene is still increasing but approaching its peak, and imports are expected to decrease in September, with overall supply remaining flat. Demand is strong in the peak season, with a 5% increase in September, leading to inventory depletion from September to October, which supports the current price. However, demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, and with the expected resumption of downstream mines, the balance sheet will gradually turn into surplus, putting pressure on prices. Before the holiday, there is no new clear - direction driver, so lithium carbonate will mainly fluctuate in the short term. [14] - The strategy suggests wide - range fluctuations and light - position operations within the range for single - side trading, with no suggestions for spreads and options. Variables include changes in the macro - environment, increased supply, and demand falling short of expectations. [14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 01: Lithium Carbonate Overview - **Supply**: Total weekly production was 20,516 tons, a 0.75% increase. Spodumene production increased by 0.93% due to increased hedging profits, approaching a short - term peak; mica production decreased by 0.70% and remained stable after CATL's shutdown; salt - lake production increased by 0.66% with new capacity in the ramping - up stage; recycling production increased by 1.85%, and imports remained unchanged. Chile's reduced shipments in August will lead to a decrease in imports in September. [13] - **Demand**: The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2.15%, and that of ternary materials increased by 0.68%. The peak - season demand is strong, and downstream procurement is active. Pre - holiday stocking is basically completed. [13] - **Inventory**: The port inventory of lithium concentrate decreased by 4.45%, and the total inventory decreased by 0.51%. Smelter inventory decreased by 2.80%, and downstream inventory increased by 2.35%. Overall inventory decreased due to strong demand. [13] - **Valuation**: Ore prices increased slightly with the market, raising costs and compressing profit margins. There is no obvious hedging profit. The profit from spodumene decreased by 58.69%, and that from mica decreased by 32.39%. [13] - **Balance Sheet**: In 2025, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate showed certain trends. The new August import and export data showed that imports were slightly lower than expected, and Chile's August shipments decreased by 4.8% month - on - month, resulting in a 3,000 - ton reduction in September imports. [15] Part 02: Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain Prices - **Lithium Carbonate Market - related**: It includes data on lithium carbonate futures such as the basis, trading - to - holding ratio, trading volume, and open interest, as well as spot prices and cost - profit data. [17] - **Lithium Ore Prices**: It shows the prices of spodumene concentrate (6% - CIF China) and lithium mica over the years. [27][30] - **Lithium Carbonate Prices**: It presents the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, their price differences, and cost - profit data. [35][41] - **Lithium Hydroxide Price Spreads**: It includes the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide and their price differences with lithium carbonate. [63] - **Cathode Material Prices**: It shows the prices of ternary materials of different grades and lithium iron phosphate. [66] - **Power Battery Cell Prices**: It presents the prices of square lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, and 523 square ternary cells. [68][70][71] Part 03: Lithium Carbonate Upstream Supply Environment - **Lithium Concentrate**: It shows the import volume of lithium concentrate, especially from Australia, including monthly and cumulative data and their year - on - year and month - on - month changes. [75][76][80] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It includes capacity, monthly and weekly operating rates, production volume (total and by raw material), import and export volume, and total supply, along with their changes over time. [83][88][108] Part 04: Lithium Carbonate Downstream Consumption Environment - **Apparent Demand**: It shows the apparent consumption volume of lithium carbonate. [113] - **Real Demand**: It includes the production volume and monthly operating rates of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, manganese - acid lithium, and lithium hexafluorophosphate. [113] - **Terminal Demand**: It includes the production volume, shipment volume, inventory - to - sales ratio, and installation volume of lithium batteries, power batteries, and energy - storage and consumer batteries, as well as the production and sales of new - energy vehicles, their penetration rate, and energy - storage bid - winning scale and capacity. [113] Part 05: Lithium Carbonate Inventory Structure - **Weekly Inventory**: It includes warehouse receipts by region, smelter inventory, downstream cathode material factory inventory, other inventory, and total inventory. [212] - **Monthly Inventory**: It includes smelter inventory, downstream cathode material factory inventory, and total inventory. [212] - **Upstream and Downstream Inventory**: It includes lithium ore inventory, lithium iron phosphate finished - product inventory, and ternary material finished - product inventory. [212]

—第268期 地缘冲突影响再现，油价偏强震荡 中泰期货股份有限公司 肖海明 从业资格号：F3075626 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0018001 中泰期货 2025年9月28日 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 原油周度思考 目 录 CONTENTS 03 02 05 04 01 核心指标及观点 价格基础数据 世界原油供需 中国及美国油品供需 金融核心数据 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 0 01 核心指标及观点 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 原油核心指标及观点-1.1本周重点事件回顾 一、本周重点事件回顾： 基本面： 1、美国至9月19日当周API原油库存-382.1万桶，前值-342万桶。 2、9月24日讯，阿联酋富查伊拉石油工业区最新数据显示，截至9月22日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油总库存为1492.2万 桶，较一周前增加183.3万桶。其中轻质馏分油库存增加62.8万桶至667.6万桶，中质馏分油库存减少3.3万桶至161.8万桶，重 质残渣燃料油库存增加123.8万桶至662.8万桶。 3、EIA报告：09月19日当周美国原油出口减少79.3万桶/日至448.4万桶/日；09月19日当周美国国内原油产量 ...

姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 基差及价差 2 聚乙烯产业情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 供应压力仍大，震荡思路对待 中泰期货聚乙烯产业链周报 2025年9月28日 聚乙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 1、聚乙烯综述 | | | 上周 | 本周 | 周环比 | 下周 | 下下周 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产量 | 国产量 | 63.10 | 64.26 | 1.17 | 64.26 | 66.54 | 本周产量略微增加，下周装置检修复产 较多，产量可能会略微增加。 | | （万吨） | 检修损失量 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 供需压力仍大，继续偏弱震荡 中泰期货聚丙烯产业链周报 2025年9月28日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 聚丙烯基差价差 2 聚丙烯供需情况 聚丙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 2、聚丙烯估值-成本利润 | | | | 上周 | 本周 | 周环比 | 下周 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 原油 | 66.68 | 69.42 | 2.74 | | 动力煤价格震荡反弹。丙烷价格本周 | | | 原料 | 煤炭 | 700 | 709 | 9.00 | | 震荡走弱，原油价 ...