1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - share market shows an upward - trending shock, and the stock index futures can consider following the trend. The government bond futures maintain the strategy of flattening the yield curve. [10][11] - The steel market is expected to rebound in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term, while iron ore suggests holding short positions at high levels. The double - coking price may fluctuate and rise in the short - term, and the ferroalloy market is short - term recommended to wait and see. For soda ash, wait and see and try short positions at high levels after the positive feedback subsides; for glass, buy at low levels with caution in chasing high prices. [14][16][17] - For non - ferrous metals, zinc suggests waiting and seeing, and aggressive investors can short at high levels; lead also recommends waiting and seeing; lithium carbonate will fluctuate strongly in the short - term; industrial silicon can focus on selling out - of - the - money call options at high levels, and be cautious in holding positions in polysilicon. [20][22][23] - In the agricultural products market, cotton can reduce long - positions and wait and see; sugar can conduct short - term trading in the low - value range; eggs' short - term contracts have limited upside space, and the far - month contracts have strong support below. The apple market may run strongly; corn will fluctuate strongly in the short - term; jujubes will run in a shock; and live pigs' futures should be short - biased at high levels. [28][30][31] - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil will fluctuate without new event fermentation; fuel oil will follow the oil price; plastics should be treated with a shock mindset; rubber will run in a shock; synthetic rubber suggests waiting and seeing; methanol can consider long - biased allocation in the far - month contracts; caustic soda futures should follow the trend; asphalt's price fluctuation may increase; the polyester industry chain can consider PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads; LPG has limited support space; pulp and logs suggest waiting and seeing, and urea will run in a shock. [38][39][43] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - China's foreign exchange reserves reach a ten - year high, and gold reserves increase for 14 consecutive months. As of the end of December 2025, foreign exchange reserves are 3.3579 trillion US dollars, and gold reserves are 74.15 million ounces. [5] - Market regulatory authorities jointly issue regulations to address problems in live - streaming e - commerce and online trading platforms. [5] - Eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issue an implementation opinion on "AI + Manufacturing" aiming to lead the world in AI by 2027. [5] - The central bank conducts a 1.1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation to offset the maturity amount. [5] - Multiple departments hold a battery industry symposium focusing on anti - involution measures. [6] - xAI completes a 20 - billion - dollar E - round financing, with a valuation of 230 billion US dollars. [6] - Ukraine hopes to end the conflict with Russia in the first half of 2026. [6] - The US "small non - farm" shows a mild recovery in December 2025, and the ISM service PMI rises to the highest level since October 2024. [6][7] - The eurozone's CPI in December 2025 slows down to 2%, and the market expects the European Central Bank to remain inactive. [7] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusts trading rules for silver and tin futures. [7] - Key coking enterprises plan to limit production and stabilize prices. [8] 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - A - shares rise in a shock, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 14 consecutive positive days. The strategy is to consider following the trend. [10] 3.2.2 Government Bond Futures - The capital market tightens, and the bond market weakens. The strategy is to maintain a flattening yield curve strategy. [11] 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - Policy interference in the steel industry is low. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is good. Supply is stable, and inventory is relatively high. Steel is expected to rebound in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term, and iron ore suggests holding short positions at high levels. [13][14] 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The double - coking price may fluctuate and rise in the short - term, affected by policies and winter storage expectations, but the upside space is limited due to the pressure on the steel industry chain. [16] 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - The market is influenced by news disturbances. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and investors with small positions can expand the position - adding range. In the long - term, the trend is bearish. [17] 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash: Wait and see, and try short positions at high levels after the positive feedback subsides. Glass: Buy at low levels with caution in chasing high prices. [18][19] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Zinc - Domestic zinc inventories increase. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short at high levels. The supply support weakens, and the demand is expected to weaken. [20][21] 3.4.2 Lead - Lead inventories are expected to rise. It is recommended to wait and see. In the short - term, lead prices may rise due to raw material shortages, but downstream demand may affect the price. [22] 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price will fluctuate strongly, affected by mine disturbances and long - term demand, and attention should be paid to inventory changes. [23] 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: Consider selling out - of - the - money call options at high levels. Polysilicon: Be cautious in holding positions due to policy changes. [24] 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, and the long - term supply is expected to shrink. Cotton prices may fall in the short - term, and it is recommended to reduce long - positions and wait and see. [28][29] 3.5.2 Sugar - The global sugar supply is in surplus, and domestic sugar is in a season of high supply and demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - value range. [30][31] 3.5.3 Eggs - The short - term contracts are driven by the spot market but have limited upside space. The far - month contracts have strong support below. [31][32] 3.5.4 Apples - The market may run strongly. The sales area has a certain digestion pressure, and attention should be paid to price changes in the sales area. [33] 3.5.5 Corn - The short - term price will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling sentiment and policy - related grain auctions after the New Year. [33][34] 3.5.6 Jujubes - The market will run in a shock, and attention should be paid to the sales area's sales rhythm and purchasing mentality. [34] 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The spot price may fall in the middle of January, and the futures should be short - biased at high levels. [34][35] 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Geopolitical trading ends, and the supply is in surplus. The oil price will fluctuate without new events. [38] 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The price will follow the oil price, affected by geopolitical and macro factors, and the supply is loose. [39] 3.6.3 Plastics - The supply pressure is high, and the price may have a small - scale rebound but no strong upward drive. It should be treated with a shock mindset. [39][40] 3.6.4 Rubber - The price will run in a shock, with cost support. Attention should be paid to international situations and downstream procurement. [40] 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Short - term sentiment fluctuates significantly, and it is recommended to wait and see. [41][42] 3.6.6 Methanol - The fundamentals are improving in the long - term. The far - month contracts can consider long - biased allocation, but attention should be paid to inventory changes and price corrections. [43] 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - The futures should follow the trend and maintain a short - term long - biased mindset, while the spot market is not optimistic. [44] 3.6.8 Asphalt - The price fluctuation may increase, and attention should be paid to the price bottom after the winter storage game. [44][45] 3.6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term price will follow the cost. Consider PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads. Each product has different supply - demand and cost situations. [46][47] 3.6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - There is support but limited space, affected by supply and demand factors. [48] 3.6.11 Pulp - The spot market trading weakens, and the futures face hedging pressure. It is recommended to wait and see due to the multi - empty game. [49] 3.6.12 Logs - The fundamentals are weak, and the price will run in a shock. The spot market is relatively stable. [50] 3.6.13 Urea - The spot and futures markets will run in a shock, with the spot market trading weakening and the futures being slightly strong. [51]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market is strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a record-long winning streak, and the stock index futures can be considered for trend-following operations [9][13]. - The bond market is under pressure, and the strategy for treasury bond futures is to maintain a flattening yield curve [15]. - Steel is expected to maintain a sideways trend, and iron ore is recommended to be shorted on rallies [17][18]. - The prices of coking coal and coke may rise sideways in the short term, and attention should be paid to the disturbances from coal mine production and safety inspections [19]. - For ferroalloys, it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term, paying attention to position management [21]. - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [22]. - The short-term price of lithium carbonate will be strong, but beware of significant fluctuations [24]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the opportunity to sell out-of-the-money call options on rallies; for polysilicon, hold the previous long positions and continue to look for opportunities to buy on dips [25][26]. - For cotton, operate by buying on dips and rolling; for sugar, trade short-term in the low range [28][30]. - The near-term contracts of eggs are expected to have limited upside space, while the far-term contracts are supported by strong expectations but also have limited upside [32][33]. - The apple futures may be strong, and the corn futures will be sideways to strong in the short term [34]. - The jujube market will maintain a sideways trend, and the short-term spot price of live pigs is likely to decline [36][38]. - The oil price will be sideways without new events, and the prices of fuel oil and plastics will follow the oil price [40][42][43]. - The rubber futures will be sideways, and it is advisable to go long on dips; the synthetic rubber may be strong in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see if there are no positions [45][46]. - For methanol, consider a slightly long allocation for the far-term contracts; for caustic soda, maintain a long position [47][48]. - The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate more significantly, and pay attention to the price bottom after the winter storage game [49]. - The polyester industry chain prices will follow the cost, and consider the PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads [51]. - The LPG price has support, but the upside space is limited; the pulp futures are advisable to wait and see; the urea market will be strong in the short term [52][53][55]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - On January 6, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.5% to 4083.67 points, achieving a 13 - day winning streak and hitting a new high in over 10 years [9]. - The 2026 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES 2026) kicked off on January 6. NVIDIA announced the full production of the new - generation AI chip platform Vera Rubin, and launched the world's first open - source VLA autonomous driving inference model Alpamayo [9]. - The People's Bank of China deployed key tasks for 2026, including using various monetary policy tools flexibly and efficiently, and strengthening financial market supervision [9]. - China decided to ban the export of all dual - use items to Japanese military users and military purposes [10]. - Four departments jointly issued a document to promote employees' cultural and sports consumption [10]. - Regulatory authorities surveyed some wealth management companies to address the bottlenecks for medium - and long - term funds to enter the market [10]. - As of January 5, over 280 Hong Kong - listed companies released their 2025 fiscal year performance forecasts. The performance of non - ferrous metal and innovative drug companies was generally good, while some traditional industries faced pressure [10]. - The China Securities Index Company announced index adjustments, which will take effect after the market closes on January 9 [11]. - More than a dozen small and medium - sized banks adjusted their deposit interest rates, showing a differentiated pattern [11]. - Boston Dynamics under Hyundai Motor plans to produce 30,000 Atlas humanoid robots annually in the US starting in 2028 [11]. - A US senior official said that Trump's team is discussing various options to acquire Greenland [11]. - A large number of US military planes flew to Europe recently, and Iran's armed forces are on high alert [12]. - The US Secret Service launched a large - scale recruitment campaign to prepare for major events in 2028 [12]. Stock Index Futures - The A - share market continued to rise with enlarged trading volume. The three major PMI indexes all rose to the expansion range, indicating an overall recovery of China's economic prosperity. It is recommended to consider trend - following operations [13][14]. Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market is balanced and slightly loose, and the stock index is strong, putting pressure on the bond market. The strategy is to flatten the yield curve [15]. Black Metals Steel and Iron Ore - Policy has little impact on steel production. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is okay. The supply of steel mills is stable, and the inventory is high. The valuation of iron ore is reasonable, and the supply is strong while the demand is stable. Steel is expected to be sideways, and iron ore is recommended to be shorted on rallies [17][18]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may rise sideways in the short term. The supply of coking coal may shrink, and the potential negative feedback risk restricts the price increase. The inventory of upstream enterprises is increasing, and the downstream replenishment is slow [19][20]. Ferroalloys - The market is affected by emotions, and it is not recommended to chase the rise. It is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term, paying attention to position management [21]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and new capacity may be put into production. The market expects cold - repair of glass production lines, and attention should be paid to the implementation of cold - repair [22]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price will be strong, but beware of significant fluctuations. The fundamentals are slightly weak, but the mine disturbances reduce the复产 expectation, and the long - term demand is good [24]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the opportunity to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies. For polysilicon, hold the previous long positions and continue to look for opportunities to buy on dips. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a loose balance, and the supply and demand of polysilicon are stable, with the anti -内卷 policy dominating the market [25][26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. It is advisable to buy on dips and roll. The international cotton price is affected by the planting area and export, and the domestic cotton price is affected by the pre - holiday replenishment and the decline in production before the Spring Festival [28][29]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market is in a season of strong supply and demand. It is recommended to trade short - term in the low range. The global sugar supply is in surplus, but some institutions have lowered the surplus forecast [30][31]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs is rising seasonally before the Spring Festival, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. The upside space of the near - term contracts is limited, and the far - term contracts are supported by expectations but also have limited upside [32][33]. Apples - The futures price may be strong. The出库 of apples is slightly lower than last year, the sales in the sales area are weak, and attention should be paid to the price changes in the sales area [34]. Corn - The short - term futures price will be sideways to strong. The price is affected by the farmers' selling sentiment and policy - related grain auctions [34][35]. Jujubes - The market will maintain a sideways trend. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable, and attention should be paid to the sales in the peak consumption season [36][37]. Live Pigs - The spot price is expected to decline in the middle of January. The futures main contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies. The second - fattening entry is active, and the supply pressure before the Spring Festival is increasing [38]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The geopolitical trading is over, and the market focuses on fundamentals. The oil price is facing a serious supply surplus, and it will be sideways without new events. Attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [40]. Fuel Oil - The price follows the oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The geopolitical situation in Iran affects the oil price, and the inventory is increasing [42]. Plastics - The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the demand is weak. The upstream is in heavy losses, which may support a small rebound. It is advisable to take a sideways view and beware of callback risks [43][44]. Rubber - The price will be sideways, and it is advisable to go long on dips. The raw material price in Thailand is rising, and the fundamentals have no obvious contradictions [45]. Synthetic Rubber - The price may be strong in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see if there are no positions. The price is driven by cost and market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the downstream procurement sentiment [46]. Methanol - The fundamentals are improving in the medium - long term. The far - term contracts can be considered for a slightly long allocation. The supply may be affected by the situation in Iran, and attention should be paid to the port inventory [47]. Caustic Soda - Maintain a long position. The impact of fundamentals on the futures is weak, and the spot price in Shandong is stable or declining [48]. Asphalt - The price is expected to fluctuate more significantly, and attention should be paid to the price bottom after the winter storage game. The supply of raw materials is uncertain due to geopolitics [49][50]. Polyester Industry Chain - The prices follow the cost. Consider the PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads. The supply and demand of PX and PTA are expected to weaken, and the market for ethylene glycol and short - fiber will be sideways [51]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price has support, but the upside space is limited. The supply in the Middle East is tight, but the global supply is abundant. The demand in winter is strong, but the chemical end is under pressure [52]. Paper Pulp - It is advisable to wait and see. The spot trading is weak, the port inventory is increasing, and the valuation does not provide a good opportunity [53]. Logs - The fundamentals are slightly weak, and the price will be sideways. The domestic spot market is stable, and the port inventory is increasing [54]. Urea - The spot and futures markets are expected to be strong in the short term. The spot price is rising, and the futures price is also strong [55][56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Overall Economic Situation - China's economic aggregate in 2025 is estimated to reach 140 trillion yuan. The manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI in December 2025 all rose, indicating an overall recovery of the economic climate [4][5]. - The A - share market in 2025 showed a mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 18% cumulatively, hitting a ten - year high. The Hong Kong stock market had a "good start" on the first trading day of 2026 [8][6]. 2.2 Commodity Market - **Futures Market**: Based on fundamental analysis, some commodities are in a trend - bearish, shock - bearish, or shock - bullish state. Based on quantitative analysis, some commodities are rated as bearish, shock, or bullish [2]. - **Black Commodities**: Steel is expected to maintain a shock market, and iron ore is recommended to be short - sold on rallies. The prices of coking coal and coke may rise in the short - term but are restricted by the profit pressure of the steel industry chain. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are recommended to be short - sold on rallies [11][12][14]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: For Shanghai zinc, it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rallies. For Shanghai lead, it is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can enter short positions at high prices. Lithium carbonate may have a short - term price correction but has long - term demand support. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies, and for polysilicon, it is recommended to buy on dips [17][18][20]. - **Agricultural Products**: Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be shock - bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Zhengzhou sugar is in a state of recovering valuation and is recommended for short - term trading. For eggs, the near - month contracts have limited upside, and the far - month contracts have strong support but high valuations. Apples are expected to be in a shock market. Corn prices are expected to be in a range - bound state in the short term. Jujubes are expected to be in a shock state. For live pigs, the spot price is likely to decline in the first half of January, and the futures main contract is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [23][25][27]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are expected to be bearish. Fuel oil prices will fluctuate with oil prices. Polyethylene is expected to be in a shock - bullish state. Rubber is expected to be in a shock market, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Synthetic rubber is expected to be shock - bullish in the short term. Methanol's fundamentals are improving, and the far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after a price correction. Caustic soda's near - month contracts are recommended to be short - sold, and the far - month 05 contracts can hold long positions dynamically. Asphalt price fluctuations are expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. The polyester chain is in a short - term adjustment state, and positive spreads between 5 - 9 contracts of PX and PTA can be considered. Liquefied petroleum gas has limited upside space. Pulp is recommended to wait and see in the short term. Logs are expected to be in a shock - bearish state. Urea is expected to be strong in the short term [32][33][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Information - China's economic aggregate in 2025 is estimated to reach 140 trillion yuan. The manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI in December 2025 rose to the expansion range, indicating an overall recovery of the economic climate [4][5]. - The A - share market in 2025 showed a mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.09% on the last trading day, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell. The Hong Kong stock market had a "good start" on the first trading day of 2026, with the Hang Seng Index rising 2.76% [8][6]. - The US government issued a full - year license to TSMC, allowing the export of US chip - manufacturing equipment to its Nanjing factory. The US is likely to announce the next Fed Chairman in January [6]. 3.2 Futures Market 3.2.1 Fundamental Analysis - Trend - bearish commodities: caustic soda, live pigs, pulp, etc. - Shock - bearish commodities: lead, corn, zinc, etc. - Shock commodities: synthetic rubber, urea, rubber, etc. - Shock - bullish commodities: none mentioned. - Trend - bullish commodities: none mentioned [2]. 3.2.2 Quantitative Analysis - Bearish commodities: rapeseed oil, polypropylene, soybeans No. 1, etc. - Shock commodities: corn, coke, Shanghai gold, etc. - Bullish commodities: soybean oil, eggs, plastic, etc. [2]. 3.3 Black Commodities 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - Policy: The central economic working conference did not introduce new policies, and the policy interference in the steel production end is low, which is relatively negative for finished products and steel mill profits [11]. - Fundamentals: The demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for coils is good. The supply is relatively stable, and the inventory is still at a high level compared with last year. The iron ore supply is strong, and the demand is stable [11][12]. - Valuation: The futures prices of iron ore and coking coal are oscillating, and the steel price is expected to be between the valley - electricity and flat - electricity costs [12]. - Trend: Steel is expected to maintain a shock market, and iron ore is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [12]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Fluctuation Reason: The "anti - involution" policy led to a rebound in coking coal prices. The supply of coking coal is expected to shrink, and the demand for raw materials from steel mills has decreased in the short term [13]. - Future Outlook: The prices of coking coal and coke may rise in the short - term, but the upside space is limited due to the profit pressure of the steel industry chain [13]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - Market Outlook: Manganese silicon is recommended to be short - sold on rallies in the medium and long term, and ferrosilicon is also recommended to be short - sold on rallies [14]. - Fluctuation Reason: The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon fluctuated, and the steel mills had signs of stockpiling before the Spring Festival [14]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Fluctuation Reason: The supply of glass decreased, and the sentiment of the soda ash futures market rose. The supply of soda ash is expected to gradually recover [15]. - View: For soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see. For glass, it is recommended to try long positions after the market sentiment stabilizes [15]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Shanghai Zinc - Inventory: As of December 31, the inventory of zinc ingots decreased. - Supply and Demand: The supply in December decreased, and it is expected to increase slightly in January. The demand has some resilience but is expected to weaken in January [17]. - Operation: It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rallies [17]. 3.4.2 Shanghai Lead - Inventory: As of December 31, the inventory of lead ingots increased. - Supply and Demand: The production of recycled lead decreased in December, and the spot market was lightly traded. The consumption during the New Year's Day holiday decreased, and the inventory accumulation expectation increased [18][19]. - Operation: It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can enter short positions at high prices [18]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental: The fundamentals are weakening in the short term, and the inventory accumulation expectation in the first quarter is strong. - Outlook: The price may correct in the short term, but the long - term demand is good, and it is recommended to buy on dips [20]. 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: It has some valuation repair space but is still under pressure. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [21]. - Polysilicon: It is recommended to buy on dips. The price is expected to be supported by the anti - involution policy and the downstream demand [21]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - Fluctuation Reason: The price of ICE cotton fell, and the domestic cotton market was affected by supply and demand and policy expectations [24]. - Future Outlook: The global cotton supply and demand are slightly loose, and the domestic cotton supply is temporarily loose. It is expected to be shock - bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips [23][24]. 3.5.2 Sugar - Fluctuation Reason: The price of ICE raw sugar fell due to oversupply, and the domestic sugar market was affected by supply and demand and cost [25]. - Future Outlook: The global sugar supply is in surplus, and the domestic sugar market is in a season of strong supply and demand. It is recommended for short - term trading [25][26]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Current Situation: The near - month contracts are close to the spot price, and the spot price may rise before the Spring Festival, but the upside is limited. The far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of inventory "break", but the valuation is high [27][28]. - Outlook: It is recommended to wait and see for the far - month contracts, and the near - month contracts have limited upside [27][28]. 3.5.4 Apples - Fluctuation Reason: The出库 volume decreased, and the sales in the distribution area were slow, leading to a weakening of the futures price [29]. - Future Outlook: The market is expected to be in a shock state, and attention should be paid to the price changes in the distribution area [29]. 3.5.5 Corn - Fluctuation Reason: The domestic corn spot price fluctuated, and the futures price was in a shock state. The selling sentiment of farmers and the policy grain auction are the key factors [29]. - Future Outlook: The price is expected to be in a range - bound state in the short term, and attention should be paid to the selling sentiment in March [29][30]. 3.5.6 Jujubes - Fluctuation Reason: The prices in the production and sales areas are stable, and the market is in a shock state. - Future Outlook: It is expected to be in a shock state in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sales rhythm in the distribution area [30]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - Fluctuation Reason: The scale enterprises reduced the supply before the New Year's Day, and the social pig supply was tight, leading to a rise in the spot price [31]. - Future Outlook: The spot price is likely to decline in the first half of January, and the futures main contract is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [31]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Geopolitical Impact: The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on the market, and the long - term impact on oil prices is negative [32]. - Supply and Demand: OPEC's suspension of production increase in the first quarter is difficult to sustain, and the oil price is expected to be bearish [32]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - Price Fluctuation: The price fluctuates with the oil price, and the supply is loose, and the demand is weak [33]. - Geopolitical Impact: The geopolitical premium is weakening, and the price is under pressure [33]. 3.6.3 Polyethylene - Supply and Demand: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak, but the upstream losses may provide some support [34]. - Outlook: It is expected to be in a shock - bullish state [34]. 3.6.4 Rubber - Fluctuation Reason: The international macro - environment and trading system may increase the capital participation, but the seasonal factors limit the upside space [35]. - Outlook: It is expected to be in a shock market, and it is recommended to buy on dips [35]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Fluctuation Reason: The cost is supported, and the short - term sentiment fluctuates [36]. - Outlook: It is recommended to wait and see, and it may be shock - bullish in the short term [36]. 3.6.6 Methanol - Supply and Demand: The supply may decrease, and the demand may increase, and the fundamentals are improving [37]. - Outlook: The near - month contracts are in a shock - bullish state, and the far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after a price correction [37][38]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - Current Situation: The near - month contracts are weak, and the far - month 05 contracts have macro - positive expectations [39]. - Outlook: The near - month contracts are recommended to be short - sold, and the far - month 05 contracts can hold long positions dynamically [39]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - Price Fluctuation: The price fluctuation is expected to increase due to the uncertainty of raw materials [40]. - Outlook: The focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game [40]. 3.6.9 Polyester Chain - Fluctuation Reason: The market has digested the positive expectations, and the price is in a short - term adjustment state [41]. - Outlook: Positive spreads between 5 - 9 contracts of PX and PTA can be considered [41]. 3.6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Supply and Demand: The supply in the Middle East is tight, but the domestic demand has pressure, and the upside space is limited [42][43]. - Outlook: It has some support, but the upside space is limited [42][43]. 3.6.11 Pulp - Fluctuation Reason: The spot trading is weak, and the futures price is under pressure from hedging [44]. - Outlook: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [44]. 3.6.12 Logs - Fundamental: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [45]. - Outlook: It is expected to be in a shock - bearish state [45]. 3.6.13 Urea - Current Situation: The spot trading has improved, and the futures price is expected to be strong [46]. - Outlook: It is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the domestic demand and Indian procurement [46].

目录 1 现货市场 4 行情预期 3 产业链利润 2 基差价差 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 逻辑观点 基本面环比改善，转入偏强思路 中泰期货甲醇产业链周报 2026年1月4日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 对冲策略：观望。 风险因素：地缘政治局势突变导致伊朗甲醇出口受阻 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 近期甲醇基本面环比改善，但12月底到1月到港量仍然较多，可能会继续累库。甲醇自身供应压力还是比 较大，还需要进一步观察甲醇港口去库存情况。 甲醇近期围绕国内甲醇库存偏高以及是否能够快速去库等因素的博弈比较激烈，导致甲醇行情波动较大。 甲醇现在最大的压力是库存比较高，但是伊朗检修装置较多导致短期供应减少，远期基本面略有改善，近期 仍处于累库状态压力比较大。 现货市场情况 单边策略：近月合约偏强震荡思路，远月合约可等价格回调时，逐步偏多配置。 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[ ...

晨会纪要 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 12 月 31 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/12/31 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | | | | | | | | 鸡蛋 | 碳酸锂 | 玻璃 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 硅铁 | 纯碱 | 甲醇 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 锰硅 | 铁矿石 | 五债 | | | | 烧碱 | | 塑料 | 二债 | | | 客服电话： | | | 生猪 | 多晶硅 | | | | | | 焦煤 | 沥青 | | | 400-618-6767 | | | 螺纹钢 | 上证50股指期货 | | | 公司网址： | | | | | | | | | | 热轧卷板 | | | | www.ztqh.com | | | 焦炭 | | | ...

Core Insights - China is set to become the first economy to pay interest on its central bank digital currency, with the new digital yuan framework starting on January 1, 2026, marking a transition from "digital cash" to "digital deposit currency" [10] - The People's Liberation Army has begun military exercises around Taiwan, indicating heightened geopolitical tensions in the region [10] - The State Council has announced a tariff adjustment plan for 2026, which includes temporary lower import tariffs on 935 items to enhance the synergy between domestic and international markets [10] - The automotive market in China is expected to see complex growth dynamics in 2026, influenced by early government subsidies and seasonal factors [11] - Hong Kong's private residential prices have increased for six consecutive months, suggesting a potential end to the downward trend since 2021 [11] - The global memory industry is expected to experience a prolonged "super cycle" due to strong demand for AI servers and enterprise SSDs, lasting at least until 2027 [11] - TSMC has commenced mass production of its 2nm technology, which is anticipated to be the most advanced semiconductor technology in terms of density and energy efficiency [12] Macroeconomic Insights - The A-share market shows mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.04% while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.49% [14] - Industrial profits for large enterprises have shown a decline in growth rate as of November [14] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of stabilizing industrial growth and addressing "involution" competition [14][15] Commodity Insights - The steel market is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with iron ore prices under pressure due to weak demand from the real estate sector and slow construction progress [18][19] - The coal and coke prices may experience short-term fluctuations, influenced by production and safety inspections in coal mines [20][21] - The silicon metal market is facing pressure from the establishment of polysilicon platform companies, which may affect future production expectations [30] - The lithium carbonate market is showing signs of weakening demand, with expectations of inventory accumulation in the first quarter of 2026 [29] - The agricultural sector, particularly cotton and sugar, is experiencing mixed signals with supply pressures and seasonal demand fluctuations [33][35] Energy Sector Insights - Crude oil prices are expected to remain under pressure due to oversupply, despite geopolitical tensions in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East [46] - Fuel oil prices are influenced by geopolitical factors and are expected to follow crude oil price trends [47] - The plastic market is facing supply pressures, with expectations of weak demand impacting prices [48]

Report Title - Supply Tightness and Weakening Demand: Shanghai Zinc Maintains a Sideways - Bullish Trend [1] Report Date - December 29, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The zinc market has a supply - tight and demand - weak situation, and Shanghai zinc is expected to maintain a sideways - bullish trend. The tight supply is due to smelters' production cuts caused by raw material issues, while the demand shows a weakening trend overall [1][8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - **Industry Data**: Domestic zinc ore is in short supply, and zinc ore processing fees are falling rapidly, providing some support for zinc prices. In December, the decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued. The domestic zinc concentrate production decreased by 5.86% month - on - month to 31.14 million tons, while the import volume increased by 52.27% to 51.90 million tons. The domestic zinc ingot production decreased by 3.56% to 59.52 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 16.94% to 1.88 million tons. The export volume increased by 402.59% to 4.2816 million tons. The total supply increased by 2.14% month - on - month, and the apparent demand decreased by 0.86% [8] - **Futures Prices**: Last week, the Shanghai - London ratio dropped to around 7.4, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Overseas, strong economic data boosted demand prospects, but the increase in overseas inventories put pressure on LME zinc prices. Domestically, the overall macro environment was positive, and smelters' maintenance due to raw material issues continued, supporting Shanghai zinc prices. It is expected that the Shanghai - London ratio will continue to decline this week [9] - **Spot Prices**: In Guangdong, inventory is decreasing, the market premium is rising, but the downstream consumption is average, and it is expected to fluctuate this week. In Shanghai, some traders cleared their inventories at the end of the year, and the downstream consumption was in the off - season. It is expected that the spot supply will be low and the premium will not decline significantly. In Tianjin, the premium increased last week but is expected to decline due to new environmental warnings. In Ningbo, the premium was high but is expected to fluctuate this week due to poor downstream orders [12] 3.2 Supply Side - **Processing Fees**: The weekly average of SMM Zn50 domestic TC decreased by 100 yuan/metal ton to 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by 2.74 dollars/dry ton to 47.39 dollars/dry ton. At the end of the month, the negotiation of January zinc concentrate processing fees between domestic smelters and mines is ongoing. The import market was quiet during the Christmas holiday, with few offers [15] - **Zinc Concentrate Production**: The production of zinc concentrate is affected by factors such as smelter production cuts and import window opening [15] - **Zinc Concentrate Inventory**: The total inventory of SMM zinc concentrate at major Chinese ports was 2.7 million physical tons, a decrease of 0.67 million physical tons from the previous week. Huangpu Port and Fangchenggang Port contributed to the main reduction [8] - **Refined Zinc Production**: In December, refined zinc production continued to decline. It is estimated that the production in December will decrease by 14,000 tons to 512,000 tons, with a daily - average decrease of 5.8%. The cumulative production from January to December is expected to be 6.168 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.8% [28] - **Mineral and Ingot Imports**: In November 2025, the import of zinc concentrate was 519,000 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 52.27% and a year - on - year increase of 13.84%. The import of refined zinc was 18,229.93 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.15% [34] - **Import and Export Profits**: The import window remained closed, and the possibility of opening within the year was low. The export window closed in December [36] 3.3 Demand Side - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of downstream zinc products such as Zamak5 zinc alloy, Zamak3 zinc alloy, zinc oxide, and hot - dipped galvanized products are presented in the report [39] - **Downstream开工情况**: The weekly galvanizing开工 rate increased by 1.05% to 56.67% due to the lifting of environmental protection restrictions and the resumption of production by northern enterprises, but the demand is weakening. The weekly zinc oxide开工 rate increased by 2.08% to 57.04% as some enterprises recovered from environmental protection - related production cuts and had better demand. The weekly die - casting zinc alloy开工 rate increased by 8.09% to 52.80% as some enterprises resumed production and the downstream demand improved [8] - **Downstream Inventory Days**: The inventory data of downstream zinc processing enterprises and smelters' finished products are presented, including raw material inventory, finished product inventory of zinc alloys and zinc ingots, and inventory days [46] 3.4 Inventory Changes - **Futures Inventory**: LME zinc inventory increased by 6.98% to 106,900 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory increased by 1.83% to 42,100 tons [8] - **Spot Inventory**: As of December 25, the total SMM zinc ingot inventory in seven regions was 114,700 tons, a decrease of 7.87% from December 18. The inventory in Tianjin and Guangdong decreased, while the inventory in Shanghai remained unchanged. The bonded area inventory remained stable at 3,300 tons [8] 3.5 Macro - disturbances - **Macro - disturbance Factors**: The exchange rate, Shanghai - London ratio, US dollar index, and US federal funds target rate are presented in the report, but no in - depth analysis of their impact on the zinc market is provided [57]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.10% to 3963.68 points, achieving an 8 - day consecutive increase. It is advisable to pay attention to the sustainability and structure of liquidity restoration. If realized, the index may strengthen, and focus on the IH contract [14]. - The medium - and short - term bonds may fluctuate with a slight upward bias, but the odds are more important than the direction [15]. - Steel products are expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with a medium - to long - term trend of bottom - building. Iron ore is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [18]. - The prices of coking coal and coke may rise in the short term, but the upside space and strength may be limited due to the pressure on the steel industry chain profits [19]. - For ferroalloys, it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term. Silicon iron is still stronger than manganese silicon in terms of the disk performance [20]. - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see; for glass, it is recommended to try long positions after the market sentiment stabilizes [22]. - For Shanghai zinc, it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies within a range [24]. - For Shanghai lead, it is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can enter short positions at high levels [25]. - The price of lithium carbonate may continue to be strong in the short term, but beware of significant fluctuations [26]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the opportunity of selling out - of - the - money call options on rallies; for polysilicon, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on pullbacks [28]. - Cotton is in a stage of loose supply in the short term but is expected to strengthen in the long term due to supply contraction expectations. It shows a volatile upward trend [30]. - For sugar, it is advisable to wait and see or short on rallies at high levels after the valuation repair [32]. - For eggs, the upside space of the near - term contracts is limited, and the far - term contracts may maintain strength in the short term but are also limited in the upside [35]. - The apple market may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the price changes in the sales area [37]. - Corn may fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short the 03 contract on rallies [38]. - The jujube market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the market performance during the consumption peak season [39]. - The upward trend of the live - pig spot price is expected to be unsustainable, and it is recommended to short on rallies for the main contract [41]. - Crude oil prices may fluctuate mainly, and attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts in Venezuela and the Middle East [44]. - Fuel oil prices will follow the fluctuations of crude oil prices [46]. - Polyolefins are expected to be in a state of slightly strong fluctuations, with large supply pressure but some support from upstream losses [47]. - For rubber, it is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and hold the remaining positions for observation [48]. - For synthetic rubber, it is advisable to exit the arbitrage strategy and wait and see. Be cautious about chasing up on the long side [49]. - For methanol, the near - term contracts may have a slight rebound, and the far - term contracts can be considered for long positions after the inventory is reduced smoothly [50]. - For caustic soda, the near - term 02 contract should be treated with a short - bias mindset, and the far - term 05 contract can be held dynamically with long positions [51]. - The fluctuation range of asphalt prices is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game [52]. - For the polyester industry chain, it is advisable to consider the positive spread opportunity between the 5 - 9 contracts of PX and PTA [53]. - The price of LPG is likely to fall rather than rise in the short term, and the market focuses on the delivery logic [55]. - For pulp, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term. If the spot price is stable, one can sell out - of - the - money call options on the 03 contract at high levels [57]. - For logs, the market is expected to be in a state of weak supply - demand balance and fluctuate [57]. - For urea, it is recommended to take a short - bias approach in the short term due to large supply pressure [58]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The convening time of the 2026 National Two Sessions has been determined. The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held in Beijing on March 4, 2026, and the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held on March 5. Reviewing the draft outline of the "14th Five - Year Plan" is included in the proposed agenda of the 2026 National People's Congress [10]. - From January to November, the total profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in the country reached 6,626.86 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In November, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 13.1% year - on - year [10]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued guidelines to support commercial rocket enterprises in the critical period of large - scale commercialization to list on the Science and Technology Innovation Board using the fifth set of listing standards [10]. - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund was officially launched, with 100 billion yuan of fiscal investment at the national level and expected to leverage trillions of yuan of social capital at the regional and sub - fund levels. Strategic emerging and future industries will be the key investment areas [11]. - The central bank pointed out in the "China Financial Stability Report (2025)" that relevant departments will improve the institutional and policy environment for long - term investment, increase the scale and proportion of medium - and long - term funds investing in A - shares, and promote the improvement of the quality of listed companies [11]. - The National Conference on Industry and Information Technology deployed ten key tasks for 2026, including rectifying "involution - style" competition, supporting artificial intelligence research, and promoting the commercialization of new services such as satellite Internet of Things [11]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology studied and deployed key tasks for the "14th Five - Year Plan" period of the information and communication industry, emphasizing the research and development of 6G technology and the improvement of platform economy supervision [11]. - In response to the US arms sales to Taiwan, China decided to take counter - measures against 20 US military - related enterprises and 10 senior managers [12]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation carried out compliance guidance on standardizing price competition in the photovoltaic industry, emphasizing the importance of rectifying "involution - style" competition [12]. - The core CPI in Tokyo, Japan, rose 2.3% year - on - year in December, significantly slower than the previous value of 2.8% and lower than the market expectation of 2.5%, hitting a 14 - month low [12]. - Vanke's second 3.7 - billion - yuan bond extension plan has not been passed [12]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market showed a volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.10% to 3963.68 points, achieving an 8 - day consecutive increase. It is advisable to pay attention to the sustainability and structure of liquidity restoration. If realized, the index may strengthen, and focus on the IH contract [14]. Treasury Bond Futures - The medium - and short - term bonds may fluctuate with a slight upward bias, but the odds are more important than the direction. The central bank's open - market operations led to a net injection of funds, and the short - term bond sentiment was good, while the ultra - long - term bonds were still weak. If there is no interest rate cut, the market sentiment may decline, and the bonds within 10 years will remain volatile [15][16]. Black Steel and Ore - From a policy perspective, the Central Economic Work Conference met market expectations without new policies. In the short term, there are no other important macro - level meetings. Attention should be paid to the end - of - year deployment requirements of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology for next year [17]. - In terms of fundamentals, the real - estate new - home sales data weakened year - on - year, and the new construction of housing decreased significantly. The overall demand for building materials was weak, while the demand for rolled products was good. The steel mill's profits were at a low level, and the iron ore and coking coal prices fluctuated. The inventory of five major steel products decreased month - on - month but remained high compared with last year [17]. - Steel products are expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with a medium - to long - term trend of bottom - building. Iron ore is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [18]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may rise in the short term, but the upside space and strength may be limited due to the pressure on the steel industry chain profits. Attention should be paid to the production of coal mines, safety inspections, and the progress of downstream winter storage [19]. Ferroalloys - The commodity sentiment has warmed up, but the black sector lacks its own driving force. The double - silicon products are the least volatile in the black sector. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term. Silicon iron is still stronger than manganese silicon in terms of the disk performance [20]. Soda Ash and Glass - The soda ash and glass industry chain fluctuates with the market atmosphere. The supply of soda ash is at a low level, and new production capacity needs to be observed. The glass spot sentiment is still weak, and there is an expectation of production reduction. For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see; for glass, it is recommended to try long positions after the market sentiment stabilizes [22]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Shanghai Zinc - As of December 25, the inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions decreased. The zinc concentrate processing fee remained low, and the supply was tight, supporting the zinc price. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies within a range [24]. Shanghai Lead - As of December 25, the social inventory of lead ingots decreased. The supply was restricted by raw material shortages and environmental protection measures, and the demand was weak. The market was in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can enter short positions at high levels [25]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price of lithium carbonate may continue to be strong, but beware of significant fluctuations. The demand is expected to be good in the long term, but the current market sentiment is mainly driven by expectations [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the opportunity of selling out - of - the - money call options on rallies. For polysilicon, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on pullbacks. The industrial silicon market is in a state of loose balance during the dry season, and the polysilicon price is expected to be strong under the influence of policies [28]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton is in a stage of loose supply in the short term but is expected to strengthen in the long term due to supply contraction expectations. The price is supported by cost and policy expectations and shows a volatile upward trend [30]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market is in a season of strong supply and demand. After the significant rebound of Zhengzhou sugar for valuation repair, attention should be paid to the pressure of hedging positions. It is advisable to wait and see or short on rallies at high levels [32]. Eggs - The upside space of the near - term contracts is limited due to the loose supply - demand pattern. The far - term contracts may maintain strength in the short term but are also limited in the upside due to high valuations [35]. Apples - The apple market may fluctuate. The current market shows limited transactions in the production area and slow sales in the sales area. Attention should be paid to the price changes in the sales area [37]. Corn - Corn may fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short the 03 contract on rallies. The key factor affecting the corn price is the farmers' selling sentiment [38]. Jujubes - The jujube market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the market performance during the consumption peak season. Currently, the market is in the stage of digesting new arrivals, with supply pressure and limited upward price momentum [39]. Live Pigs - The upward trend of the live - pig spot price is expected to be unsustainable, mainly driven by short - term supply - demand mismatches. It is recommended to short on rallies for the main contract [41]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices may fluctuate mainly, with the core contradiction being the land issue between Russia and Ukraine and frequent geopolitical issues in the Middle East. The supply of crude oil is in a state of surplus, and attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts in Venezuela and the Middle East [44]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices will follow the fluctuations of crude oil prices. The supply - demand structure of fuel oil is loose, and the demand is weak. The short - term trading focus is on the geopolitical influence dominated by the US and Russia [46]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to be in a state of slightly strong fluctuations. The supply pressure is large, but there is some support from upstream losses. The downstream demand is relatively weak [47]. Rubber - For rubber, it is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and hold the remaining positions for observation. The trading sentiment has increased, but the fundamental supply - demand situation has no obvious contradiction [48]. Synthetic Rubber - For synthetic rubber, it is advisable to exit the arbitrage strategy and wait and see. Be cautious about chasing up on the long side. It is expected to be slightly strong in the short term under the influence of cost and policy expectations [49]. Methanol - The near - term contracts of methanol may have a slight rebound, and the far - term contracts can be considered for long positions after the inventory is reduced smoothly. The supply of methanol may be affected by factors such as the shutdown of Iranian plants [50]. Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the near - term 02 contract should be treated with a short - bias mindset, and the far - term 05 contract can be held dynamically with long positions. The spot price is weak, while the far - term contract has more macro - level positive expectations [51]. Asphalt - The fluctuation range of asphalt prices is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. The geopolitical issues in Venezuela have increased the uncertainty of asphalt raw materials [52]. Polyester Industry Chain - For the polyester industry chain, it is advisable to consider the positive spread opportunity between the 5 - 9 contracts of PX and PTA. The prices of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, and short - fiber have all declined due to factors such as weak oil prices and downstream negative feedback [53]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The price of LPG is likely to fall rather than rise in the short term, and the market focuses on the delivery logic. The supply is abundant, and the demand is seasonally supported in the civil market but weak in the chemical industry [55]. Pulp - For pulp, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term. The fundamentals are gradually improving, but there may be pressure from hedging positions. If the spot price is stable, one can sell out - of - the - money call options on the 03 contract at high levels [57]. Logs - The log market is expected to be in a state of weak supply - demand balance and fluctuate. The domestic and foreign spot markets are relatively stable, and the price of foreign - sourced logs may decline due to lower freight rates [57]. Urea - Near the end of the year, the supply pressure of urea is relatively large, and it is recommended to take a short - bias approach in the short term. The spot price is stable to weak, and the trading volume is low [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Fundamental - based Judgments - **Trend空头**: Carbonate lithium, zinc, caustic soda, plastic, ferromanganese - silicon, live pigs, ferrosilicon, SSE 50 stock index futures, five - year treasury bond futures, CSI 300 stock index futures, CSI 1000 index futures, CSI 500 stock index futures, corn, eggs, urea, methanol, pulp, logs, offset printing paper, red dates, coking coal, soda ash, glass, apples, coke [2] - **Oscillating偏空**: Ethylene glycol, crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, industrial silicon, thirty - year treasury bond futures, ten - year treasury bond futures, two - year treasury bond futures, synthetic rubber [2] - **Oscillating**: Lead, zinc, aluminum, tin, copper, palm oil, plastic, rebar, corn, glass, PVC, soybean No.1, asphalt, gold, coking coal, polypropylene, ferromanganese - silicon, silver, Zhengzhou cotton [2][4] - **Oscillating偏多**: Rubber, polysilicon, bottle chips, PTA, staple fiber, p - xylene, fuel oil, cotton, cotton yarn [2] - **Trend多头**: None Quant - based Judgments - **偏空**: Rapeseed meal, sugar, PTA, methanol, lead, rubber, coke [4] - **Oscillating**: Zinc, palm oil, plastic, aluminum, rebar, tin, copper, soybean No.2, glass, PVC, soybean No.1, asphalt, gold, coking coal, polypropylene, ferromanganese - silicon, silver, Zhengzhou cotton [4] - **偏多**: Soybean meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, iron ore, eggs, corn starch, hot - rolled coil [4] 3. Key Points by Directory Macro News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to study and deploy the work on improving Party conduct, building a clean government and combating corruption in 2026, emphasizing anti - corruption and enhancing the comprehensive effectiveness of corruption governance [6] - On December 25, the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose above the "7" mark, and the on - shore RMB approached "7". The RMB is expected to appreciate in 2026 without a unilateral trend [6] - JD announced its 2025 year - end bonus plan, with 92% of employees getting full or excess bonuses, and the total bonus input increasing by over 70% year - on - year. There are also rumors of salary increases at BYD, ByteDance, and CATL [6] - The Ministry of Commerce opposed the US imposing 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products, promoted compliant rare - earth magnet exports, and hoped for a balanced solution for TikTok's agreement with investors [7] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange approved the IPO application of Dapu Micro, the first unprofitable company on the Growth Enterprise Market to pass the review [7] - Israeli officials signaled a possible military conflict with Iran over Iran's efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile arsenal [7] - Morgan Stanley strategists pointed out three potential "surprises" in the US stock market in 2026: "job - less productivity improvement", the return of the inverse relationship between stocks and bonds, and a sharp rise in commodity and energy prices [7] Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.3%. The market turnover was 1.94 trillion yuan [9] - The central bank's MLF operation had a net injection of 100 billion yuan, and if bond purchases reached 350 billion yuan this month, it would be the largest - scale operation. The urgency for interest - rate cuts is low [9] - Pay attention to the sustainability of liquidity repair and structure. If the conditions are met, the index may strengthen, and focus on IH [9] Treasury Bond Futures - The short - and medium - term bonds may oscillate strongly, but the odds are more important than the direction. The capital is balanced and loose, and the capital interest rates are stable [10] - The central bank's MLF operation had a net injection of 100 billion yuan. Without interest - rate cuts, the market sentiment may decline, and bonds within 10 years will oscillate [10] Black Commodities Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and rise in the short term. Pay attention to the production at coal mines, safety inspections, downstream raw - material winter storage, and changes in hot - metal production [12] - The production of coal mines has decreased slightly, and the third round of coke price cuts has been implemented. The demand for raw materials from steel mills has declined in the short term [12] - Due to "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection" policies, the supply of coking coal is expected to shrink, but the potential negative feedback from the steel industry may limit the price increase [12] Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, the end - of - session rally may stimulate hedging, and the sustainability of high prices needs attention. Manganese - silicon is weak, and focus on the new capacity launch before the end of January. In the medium term, both are bearish on rallies [13] - On December 25, the auction price of Hongliulin lump coal increased, with a decrease in the auction volume [13] Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [14] - Soda ash supply is at a low level due to some enterprises' maintenance, and cost increases have weakened the upstream's willingness to start production. Glass supply reduction expectations have less impact, and spot sentiment is weak [14] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - As of December 25, the domestic zinc inventory decreased. Tianjin and Guangdong saw inventory declines. After the fading of macro - positive factors, the price is expected to oscillate downward. Hold short positions [16] - In November 2025, the import of zinc concentrates increased significantly, with a year - on - year increase of 13.84% and a cumulative increase of 33.74% from January to November [16][17] Lead - As of December 25, the social inventory of lead decreased. The trading activity in the lead spot market declined. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. Wait and see, and aggressive investors can enter short positions at high prices [18][19] Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals are showing signs of weakening in the short term, but the long - term demand is positive. Look for buying opportunities after the price correction [20] Industrial Silicon - Environmental disturbances in Xinjiang and strong coking - coal prices have provided some valuation - repair space, but the rebound is under pressure. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options on rallies [21] Polysilicon - Exchange risk - control measures have tightened, and the trading volume may cool down. The expected price increase of downstream silicon wafers will support the spot price of polysilicon, and the price is expected to be strong [22] Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The pre - festival restocking demand has boosted the cotton price. The US cotton production and inventory have increased, while the global production has slightly decreased [23][24] - The domestic commercial and port inventories are accumulating, but the low industrial inventory of textile enterprises and policy expectations support the price [24] Sugar - The domestic sugar market is in a season of high supply and demand, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures are undervalued, with a technical rebound. Wait and see [25] - The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in 2025/26, but some institutions have lowered the surplus forecast. The domestic supply pressure is increasing, and the demand for pre - holiday stocking will start [26][27] Eggs - The commodity market sentiment is strong, and the pre - January festival stocking demand may increase, leading to short - covering in the near - term contracts and a price rebound. The supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the price increase space is limited before the Spring Festival [28] - The far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of a possible decline in the laying - hen inventory, but this expectation cannot be verified or falsified for now. Wait and see [28][29] Apples - The apple futures price may oscillate. The apple出库 is slightly lower than the same period last year, and the sales in the distribution areas are slow. The good - quality apple price is firm [30][31] - The national cold - storage inventory ratio is 53.31%, and the inventory is 7.021 million tons, lower than the same period last year. Citrus fruits are on the market, affecting apple sales [31] Corn - The corn price may oscillate in the short term. Wait and see and pay attention to farmers' selling sentiment [33] - The domestic corn spot price is mixed. The supply - demand mismatch is easing, but the far - term contracts face pressure from supply [33] Red Dates - The market is in a stage of concentrated new - product arrival, with supply pressure. The price may oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to the sales progress in the distribution areas and downstream purchasing sentiment [34] Live Pigs - The supply - demand pattern is still supply - strong and demand - weak. The expectation of a sharp price increase during the Winter Solstice was false, and the price is expected to oscillate downward. Go short on the near - term contracts on rallies [34][35] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The escalating situation in Venezuela has led to a rapid rebound in oil prices, but the impact is limited. In the medium term, the oil price may decline due to oversupply and the easing of geopolitical tensions [37] - The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2602 contract rose to 444.7 yuan/barrel at night [37] Fuel Oil - Geopolitical and macro - factors dominate the oil price. The supply of fuel oil is loose, and the demand is weak. The price will follow the oil price, and the inventory is increasing [38] Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure and weak downstream demand, but the upstream losses may provide some support. The price is expected to oscillate [39] Synthetic Rubber - Continue to focus on the strategy of buying RU and selling BR. The butadiene inventory has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but may not maintain high prices [40] Methanol - The current supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly, and the inventory is gradually decreasing. Do not be overly bearish in the short term. Consider a slightly long - biased allocation for the far - term contracts after the inventory reduction is smooth [41][42] Caustic Soda - The near - term contracts of caustic soda are close to the real - world situation and are relatively weak, while the far - term contracts have many macro - positive expectations. Keep a bearish view on the main 03 contract [43] Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to have a larger fluctuation range. The focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [44] Polyester Industry Chain - The market benefits have been gradually realized, and the downstream negative feedback is increasing. Consider reducing long positions on rallies [44] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG futures price has entered the delivery logic. The supply is abundant globally, and the demand has both supporting and constraining factors. The price is expected to oscillate [47] Pulp - The pulp port inventory has decreased continuously, and the spot price is firm. The market sentiment has improved, but there may be hedging pressure. Wait and see in the short term [48] Logs - The log market fundamentals are oscillating, and the spot price has stabilized. The market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance [49] Urea - The urea market is expected to oscillate. The upstream production reduction is positive for the market. Pay attention to the basis pressure when the futures expectations are too strong [50]

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